Mike Kelly confirmed what everyone knew already when he officially announced his resignation as member for Eden-Monaro yesterday, thereby initiating the first federal by-election of the current term, the last having been the Wentworth by-election in October 2018. Kelly cited medical issues deriving from his overseas service while in the army, which required surgery for kidney and gallbladder failure in October.
The immediate question is how a by-election might be held amidst the coronavirus crisis, but it would seem radical solutions such as all-postal elections can be ruled out. These would require a fairly radical legislative overhaul, and David Crowe in the Age/Herald reports Speaker Tony Smith has “asked the Australian Electoral Commission for its advice on how to ensure polling stations comply with social distancing and whether to encourage more postal votes”. The current schedule in New South Wales is for existing lockdown measures to remain in place until June 29, so it may well be thought prudent to hold off for the time being, particularly given that parliament will not resume in any case until August 11.
It is already clear that the by-election will be a three-cornered contest, with state Nationals leader John Barilaro confirming his long-anticipated decision to gamble on a run for the seat and making no effort to deny ambitions to depose Michael McCormack as federal party leader. According to Geoff Chambers of The Australian, the Nationals claim recently conducted internal polling has Barilaro in a “winning position”.
Suggestions that the Liberals would vacate the field have already been scotched, with The Australian reporting it plans to hold an online plebisicite of around 200 members on May 22 to 23. Senator Jim Molan has said he is keeping his options open, and The Australian reports that the candidate from last year, local farmer and businesswoman Fiona Kotvojs, might also be a starter. The only name mentioned so far for Labor preselection has been Bega Valley Shire Mayor Kristy McBain.
I have a preliminary by-election guide in action that features a 2019 election booth results map and various charts and tables laying out demographic indicators and the seat’s electoral history. I also had a piece anticipating the by-election announcement for Crikey on Wednesday that emphasised the risks entailed by Barilaro’s mooted candidacy:
Barilaro also has formidable historical hurdles to clear: the seat has never been held by the National/Country Party through a history going back to federation, and a victory would make him the first government party candidate in a century to take a seat off the opposition at a byelection.
While he might hope to be boosted by the positive response to the government’s handling of the coronavirus crisis, it should be noted that the weekend’s Newspoll result found Scott Morrison to be enjoying a largely voteless recovery, with booming approval ratings matched by only muted improvement on voting intention.
Furthermore, the summer bushfires that have been relegated to distant memory for most of the country are certainly not forgotten in Eden-Monaro, which encompasses some of the worst-affected areas — notably the town of Cobargo, where Morrison’s post-Hawaii attempt to ingratiate himself with the locals marked the lowest ebb of his prime ministership.
Please note that this thread is specifically for discussion of the Eden-Monaro by-election — general discussion continues on the post below.
Barilaro (and his pitchfork) is all talk. He won’t run.
with the entry of state Nationals leader John Barilaro
———————
He still has not resign from his state seat yet, so at present he is not in the running for the seat of Eden-Monaro
I was told by Eden-Monaro locals that Barilaro will have a torrid fight on his hands if he decides to run. And this was last year when people were unsure how Mike Kelly would recover. He’s not as popular as he thinks he is. What he is is very polarising. With the Liberals as well.
Pork Barilaro better bring more than the novelty cheque to get over the stink blanketing the National Party.
It seems very risky for Barilaro to give up his NSW seat to run in Eden-Monaro. Even if he manages to win the byelection (which is a big ask seeing as the Nationals didn’t even come close last election), there’s no guarantee he’ll hold it at the next election. Eden-Monaro will most likely remain a bellwether seat for the near future (if anything, it’ll probably eventually trend towards Labor as Canberra suburbs spill over the ACT border).
While I did not always share his views, I have had conversations with Mike Kelly in the past and can attest to the fact that he is a genuinely nice person. I wish him and his family all the best.
I’ve always thought it unreasonable that people are forced to quit from jobs in order to run for Parliament. Completely agree that they should have to resign if the win but there is no reason why they need to have quit while campaigning.
Listening to the ABC you’d think Labor wasn’t even running a candidate….John Barilaro,
John Barilaro, John Barilaro, John Barilaro, John Barilaro, Liberal party, John Barilaro, John Barilaro, John Barilaro, Jim Molan, John Barilaro, National party, National party, John Barilaro, John Barilaro, National party…………..
Scott @ #3 Friday, May 1st, 2020 – 6:59 am
Tell the ABC.
people seem to miss the fact that at the last election the vote in Monaro had an unusually high non labor vote some thing like a margin of 10% the margin tends to be more like 1 to 3% either way…….. this means the seat could be won by labor in a byelection…… reducing the lnp absolute majority to 1
That’s today’s ABC, Mundo. It provided an early analysis of the by-election this morning on RN by that ex-Murdoch hack, David Speers, who seemed to be also somewhat transfixed on Barilaro.
mick
It’s held by Labor so if Labor win it it’s no change.
Someone check my maths.
Interesting to see how John Barilaro goes.
Like Baranby, he plays the city v country divide to the max. Unlike Barnaby he is not half-arse in the way he does things.
John Barilaro is a ruthless bastard.
no I was talking of the state parliament…. If Bailaro runs for Eden Monaro he must cause a by election in his state seat
Grattan on Friday: Can the government defy history and return Eden-Monaro to ‘bellwether’ status?
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-can-the-government-defy-history-and-return-eden-monaro-to-bellwether-status-137482
The virus will give a twist to campaigning. Albanese said he expects Speaker Tony Smith to announce the date of the byelection in the parliamentary week of 12-14 May. He anticipated it would be held late June
ABC RN Breakfast with Hamish McDonald
Tight three-cornered electoral race coming to the federal seat of Eden Monaro
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/tight-three-cornered-electoral-race-coming-to-eden-monaro/12204494
Pegasus @ #16 Friday, May 1st, 2020 – 10:22 am
No mention as far as I know yet in the electronic media of Albanese endorsing the mayor of Bega Kristy McBain as Labor candidate.
Not interested.
‘Bucephalus says:
Friday, May 1, 2020 at 8:17 am
I’ve always thought it unreasonable that people are forced to quit from jobs in order to run for Parliament. Completely agree that they should have to resign if the win but there is no reason why they need to have quit while campaigning.’
Massive conflict of interest. Barilaro using his position as Deputy Premier to (a) pork like crazy and (b) promising state outcomes to deliver a Federal result.
Given that this is the most corrupt Federal government since Federation the temptation would clearly be there because there is never any come back from within the Morrison Government for corrupt behaviour.
A bellwether is a wether that wears a bell. It tinkles the bell as it moves and the flock follows.
A bellweather seat is one which signals which way the electoral herd has gone by always going with the government of the day.
Eden Monaro has not been a bellwether seat for some time.
John Barilaro is a born and bred Queanbeyan business owner (Ryleho joinery) and is well regarded as the state Member for Monaro. Hence he is well known in the Queanbeyan area which is the most populated centre in Eden-Monaro. He was instrumental in preventing the Libs flogging the local electricity authority (in 2015??) and secured a 9% swing TO him in the last state election. I posted yesterday i think he will be hard to beat. I doubt Molin will get a look in if he is preselected but Andrew Constance might be in with a shot due/helped by his stance during the bushfires, particularly in the coastal regions.
Kirsty McBain showed good leadership during the Fires, has a reasonable profile, and would make a high quality local candidate.
T
I agree that Constance did well during the fires.
OTOH, Barilaro did not show conspicuous leadership during the fires and the post fire porking has generally been slow, uncertain and aggravating to access.
No Mick is dredging up his failed tips from state election 2019. If I remember Monaro is in a list with Kiama, Bega, Drummoyne, Ryde, South Coast, Camden, Goulburn, East Hills, Penrith, Wollondilly.
They all have one thing in common. They were won by the Govt.
Monaro is on 11% margin and Bara will pick the candidate. With by-elections on the same day, it’ll be a NP win in both. Mick – let me know if you want a bet. I still haven’t collected from 2019….
I have little time for the dishonest behavior of the current government but the earful I just got from an Eden-Monaro voter makes me look by-partisan. Scoties behavior when the fires were raging is not forgotten.
Labor leader Anthony Albanese backs Bega Mayor Kristy McBain for Eden-Monaro by-election
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-01/kristy-mcbain-to-run-at-eden-monaro-by-election-for-labor/12205054
Malcolm Farr
Labor framing Eden-Monaro byelection as community versus Morrison government
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/01/labor-framing-eden-monaro-byelection-as-community-versus-morrison-government
Robertson is the current bellwether seat.
Has been won by the party in government since 1983.
Will grassroots EM Labor members be participating in a ballot to select a candidate?
Some interesting questions raised by a by election in EM. Does Barnaby Joyce welcome the presence of Barilarlo to the Federal NP? Probably not.
Does the Liberal caucas welcome Barilaro to the Federal LNP caucas? Probably not.
Would the EM Liberal party members like to see Molan imposed on them after Cotvjos has done the hard yards at the last couple of elections? Probably not.
Would the NSW Liberal Party executive forgive Andrew Constance for his criticisms of State and Federal blundering during the bush fires? Possibly not.
I’ve got zero time for ‘the first thing they need to do is make her a member’ Labor deserve to lose in a landslide it is a ridiculous choice.
I was a bit circumspect this time……. Monaro at the state level is a marginal seat look at the results from at least the 1970’s…………. the 2019 result was an not the normal result. I said that if there was a byelection the seat could be lost to nats
I think it unlikely that there will be a national party mp for both Monaro and Eden Monaro
I’d be surprised if the normal anti-government swing doesn’t see Labor retain, even leaving aside Morrison’s disastrous forays there during the bushfires. Morrison may be benefiting from a rally around the flag effect, but such approval is ephemeral, and his government is in any event (probably?) travelling worse than the election.
Barilaro may make it interesting, although I suspect he’s weighing up the risks more carefully than the press gallery. Molan would be sent crying back to Sydney. I suspect Constance wouldn’t be interested in being a foot soldier under Morrison for a number of reasons.
I do hope Labor wins, in part because otherwise Morrison’s messiah complex will be ramped to even more obnoxious heights.
The theme of “Canberra expanding into NSW” is a bit problematic. The areas surrounding Queanbeyan such as Jerrabomberra, Googong etc are not typical Canberra suburban but rather the “builder bourgeoisie” and similar overflow from the ACT, so I am not convinced that they necessarily provide much succour to the ALP.
Fair point, looking at the polling booth results, Labor’s two party preferred vote in Queanbeyan was around 61% at the last federal election, but yeah it was only around 50% in Jerrabomberra and Bungendore.
Apparently the Nationals have released polling to the SmearStralian showing Barilaro ahead of McBain 52-48.
Just a modicum of conflict of interest with these ‘clean hand’ players
ANTHONY ALBANESE, LEADER OF THE AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY: Good morning. I am very pleased to be here with Kristy McBain. Graduate of Eden Marine High School. Mayor of Bega Shire. Local champion for her community. An outstanding local representative who is passionate about making a difference for the people of Eden-Monaro. Someone who has seen how important Federal Government can be, particularly during the not one, not two, but three bushfires that have impacted her local community over the last two years. Someone who understands that the people of Eden-Monaro have suffered from drought, then from bushfires, then from the coronavirus. Someone who is running to make a difference for them and represent their interest here in the national Parliament. I first met Kristy back in 2013. I’ve had contact with her over a period of time given my responsibilities as Labor’s representative both in Government and Opposition in areas such as in regional development and local government. I know that Kristy is passionate about jobs. I’ve dealt with her on issues such as the expansion of Eden port. Such as infrastructure for roads around the Bega Valley Shire. She is someone who is connected with local business. Someone who her, together with her husband who is a local business person is raising three kids who go to local schools, or did go to local schools, currently engaged in home-schooling. Kristy is an outstanding and articulate advocate. Through her position as the Deputy Chair, of the regional council organisations that goes from Goulburn all the way down to East Gippsland, Kristy has been an advocate for every local government area in the Eden-Monaro electorate. And I’m very pleased that Kristy has agreed to nominate for Labor preselection for Eden-Monaro. Nominations will close next Monday. But I am very confident that Kristy will receive the support of locals as well as the support of Labor people who she knows. She is a strong and articulate person. She is someone who has been on the ground when the people of Eden-Monaro have needed people to be present. And to be around and representing them. She is someone who will bring that passion, that capacity, the talent to advocate a strongly for these regional communities. It’s a vast electorate. And Mike Kelly, who I paid tribute to yesterday, leaves, of course, big shoes to fill. Mike Kelly has been an extraordinary local member and champion. That’s what Eden-Monaro needs. I have no doubt that Kristy McBain is not only the right person for Labor to be running in this by-election, she is the right person to represent the people of Eden-Monaro.
KRISTY MCBAIN: Thank you, Anthony. I want to thank Mike Kelly firstly who has been such a passionate and tireless local member for Eden-Monaro. They will certainly be big shoes to fill and I seek to get the endorsement of the Labor Party to continue on his very great local work. I did not set out seeking this position. But I want to take it on. I want to take it on for a couple of reasons. I am local. I am from the community. And I have worked for the community for a number of years now. Over the last six months it’s become abundantly clear to me and I am more resolute now than ever that leadership needs to happen, and it needs to happen at a local level. With the resignation of Mike Kelly, now is the time that Eden-Monaro has a reset button, a reset button and I think people want a change in politics. They want people to represent them at a local level and they want people they know, people they trust, and people they see every day. I want to be that voice of the people of Eden-Monaro because I don’t want my community to be left behind. And at the moment, my community is being left behind. They are being forgotten. And what we face right now is a significant and more significant than ever. As Anthony alluded to, my community specifically has had three bushfires in two years. The whole of Eden-Monaro is drought declared, or should be drought declared, but it’s not. But we are going through a drought and it’s still there. We are now in COVID-19. And with these three disasters happening concurrently, we do not and are not receiving the support that we need. So, I want to be here in this Parliament to provide a fierce voice for my community. And I want to do that on behalf of the Labor Party. And I hope to work towards a Labor Government.
https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/anthony-albanese-transcript-press-conference-parliament-house-canberra-friday-1-may-2020
HT to Dr Bonham
“Paywalled but supposed to show ALP 35 Barilaro 30 Molan 21 Greens 8, 52-48 to Barilaro. Even ignoring that this is internal polling, it would only show Barilaro as competitive and only on condition Molan is the Liberal – as seat polling is extremely unreliable.”
Eden Monaro could quite easy slip back into coalition pile. The state seat is quite comfortably nats at the moment. Kelly had a broad appeal across the country folk. Very likely a high personal vote. How does an election work in a pandemic anyway? Possibly 2 elections in the same region. Can’t see many people out door knocking. Profile and media cut through will play a big role.
Will the Eden-Monaro by-election, go in a similar way to Gilmore , where there was a 3 way battle
Labor vs Liberal vs National
The prediction was that Mundine would win that seat, due to the national party prefences .
it did not work that way
Scott – Mundine was a bad choice. Then you had the former Liberal member, out of spite, backing the Nats candidate. None of that will be in play here.
Baralaro a warm favourite. Curious not only does the ALP not even hold a pre-selection, but the presumed candidate isn’t a member of the party. How would the locals feel??
moderate @ #42 Saturday, May 2nd, 2020 – 9:10 am
You don’t have to be a member of a party. You have to become one.
At some stage no one is a member of a party, then they are.
It really doesn’t matter to the punters.
There have been countless candidates nominate for different parties over the years who had to fill in the membership papers first.
Complete non-issue.
I believe I was being schooled the other day about how the ALP was so very democratic and the LNP was being sledged for making Captain’s picks.
Kambah Mick – you weren’t on Think Tank were you? (Yes curiosity has gotten the better of me)
Mundo – how about the ambitious local branch members of the ALP who were waiting for Kelly to go and kept paying their dues. Tell them it’s a non-issue.
What’s her reason for failing to renew ALP membership. Perhaps She can enlighten us??
I think Labor’s picked a good candidate. I’m glad they’re focusing on picking the best candidate rather than just rewarding the party insiders who have been waiting the longest. Both major parties should do this more often.
The Libs got candidates wrong in 3 seats at the 2019 election which they may have had a chance-
Gilmore, Lyons and Warringah.
Terminator, hello. No nothing to do with Think Tank, seldom accused of anything to do with thinking!
michael says:
Saturday, May 2, 2020 at 11:34 am
“The Libs got candidates wrong in 3 seats at the 2019 election which they may have had a chance-
Gilmore, Lyons and Warringah.“
Gilmore – Mundine was and is an excellent candidate. Late pick and internal party politics didn’t help.
Lyons – a seat that has been held by the ALP since 1993 apart from the 2013-16?
Warringah – Abbott had held it for 25 years and was subjected to a multimillion dollar campaign from GetUp, Greens, Unions, most of the media and Steggal
. I was surprised he did so well. Steggal
will lose the next election to the LNP without having achieved anything. I wonder if she’ll have an electric vehicle or solar panels on her house by then or had a wind farm built in the electorate by the time she loses.
How’d all the ALP Candidate selections work out in May 2019?