For all that our world may have changed over the past three weeks, Newspoll has not: The Australian reports the latest result has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49. There has, however, been primary vote movement in favour of the major parties, with both up by two points: the Coalition to 40%, Labor to 36%. The Greens are down one to 12%, One Nation unchanged on 4% and others down three to 8%.
As with Essential Research, Scott Morrison has recovered somewhat from his post-bushfire slump, with his approval rating up three to 41% and disapproval down five to 53%. He now holds a 42-38 lead over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister, who led 41-40 last time. Albanese’s net rating has also improved, his approval rating up one to 40% (The Australian report says down three, but I believe it has its wires crossed from the preferred prime minister movement) and disapproval down four to 40%.
In other findings, 75% support the government’s decision to abandon a budget surplus in favour of economic stimulus; 51% believe the federal government has managed preparedness for the crisis well; 66% are satisfied with federal and state government efforts to inform the public about the virus; but only 47% feel the same way about managing its economic impact.
UPDATE: The Australian’s reportage rather downplays the fact, but the poll found only 33% were satisfied with the economic response of governments (the question emphasised “both federal and state”) to the coronavirus outbreak, with 47% dissatisfied. The 75% rating in favour of stimulus did not relate specifically to the government’s policy, but to the general notion that “the Morrison government should provide a stimulus package to safeguard the economy”, with only 14% favouring the alternative option that it “should prioritise its promise to deliver a budget surplus”.
For the other questions, 76% of respondents were worried about the economic impact of the outbreak, versus only 20% for confident; 51% were worried, and 47% confident, about the preparedness of the public health system, for which 51% were satisified with the federal and state government response and 33% dissatisfied; and 63% were confident, and 35% worried, about “the amount of information available to Australians about how to protect themselves”, for which 65% were satisfied and 28% dissatisfied with the federal and state government response.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1501.
I think Morrison definitely had a belated epiphany over the weekend. I assume he may have had the same opinion as Margaret Court, who believes that she and her parishioners are protected from the COVID-19 virus by ‘the blood of Jesus.’
Morrison however must be politically expedient as he realised that by saying he was going to the footy and that the weekend was OK for mass gatherings (as Viruses only start impacting people after Midnight on Sundays apparently) he essentially painted a big target on his back when people start dying. The media is already running interference for him.
Doing some basic maths just the 80’s + demographic is scary enough. There are around 940,000 people in Australia 80 or over (3.8% of the population).
This demographic are particularly susceptible to Covid-19 because as that age the immune system rapidly deteriorates.
If we assume, against all evidence, that we can restrict the infection rate to only 25% of that demographic (which is going to be difficult given we group them together in nursing homes and from experience with my Mum colds/flus and various less contagious bugs are forever going through) then we are looking at 235,000 with the condition. If we assume that only 40% need hospitalisation then we are looking at 94,000 hospital beds. If we then assume that of those 235,000 the typical fatality rate for 80 year olds as indicated of 18% then we are looking at 42,300 people.
I’m only 56 and in robust good health however I visit my Mother every week in the nursing home and at the beginning of last week I realised these places are where the tragedy will come from, on a daily basis I got angrier and angrier with Morrison.
It’s more complicated than simple infection and death rates, how many Nursing homes will collapse into chaos? If a staff member is even suspected of having the virus they can’t go to work, if they’ve associated with other staff members then they must all self isolate, if they contact someone outside what has been diagnosed with the virus they can’t come to work.
Who will look after the residents with no staff? Covid-19 is just one aspect of an unfolding story.
Yep.
State of the Union
@CNNSotu
· 2h
Dr. Anthony Fauci says there are 12,700 ventilators in the ‘stockpile’: “If you don’t have enough ventilators, it’s obvious people who need it will not be able to get it. That’s when you’re going to have to make some very tough decisions.” #CNNSOTU
Biden just committed that if he wins the nomination, the Vice President will be a woman.
Good policy and great politics.
Found this of all places on a AFL chat site, sobering and shows the shambles we are in.
Today has been possibly one of the most sobering days I can recall.
Have spent the day going through teleconference after teleconference with various health and emergency coordinators and Government officials and advisors and hearing experts implore that the opportunity to prevent a disaster has already passed and there is zero capacity for healthcare in this country to handle what is coming.
Seeing people go through powerpoint presentations where “scenario D” results in over 60,000 deaths and then have the first question in response only in concern about the potential economic impact of that, sums up the situation.
Stakeholder after stakeholder, passionately arguing their point (to the verge of tears in some cases) for additional action to be taken:
where is the communication? why hasn’t there been readily available access and update information posted across all media to inform the public?…
testing to date is completely inadequate, not accessible to enough of the population and poses a risk to the legitimacy of our figures…
we need to suspend all sporting competitions and convert the venues into makeshift treatment centres in order to have any chance of dealing with this…
without containment, the number of cases can be expected to double every 6 days…
it is expected that at least 20-25% of cases will require hospitalisation…
demand for hospital beds is forecast to exceed capacity between Easter and the start of May…
people are going to die… not just 10 or 20 or 100… we are looking at up to 1000 deaths a week here…
what do you want me to say? you have ignored almost everything that has been recommended to date. Frankly, I don’t know why I am here anymore…
if people are remaining at work then public transport needs to be addressed – what is the point of preventing gatherings above 500 if a train can hold twice as many people in a smaller confined space?…
I’ll keep this short to save time – we are f’ed. Anything we do now is too late. Even mass shutdowns won’t have the impact that is desired…
schools and businesses need to close… probably for at least 6 weeks if we are to avoid the worst-case scenario…
the country is going to be shut down to varying degrees over the next 6 months at a minimum and compensation measures need to be undertaken with this in mind…
a mortgage repayment hiatus in accompaniment with a rent-assistance package will ease much of the disruption that will be imposed upon workers…
testing needs to be escalated as a matter of priority. We need more kits and an army of people out there every day testing people in their thousands. We are completely blind to this otherwise.
I’ll say the obvious, as I know many here share similar thoughts – we are on a ******* island, it should never have gotten to this…
Feeling a near overwhelming amount of frustrated exhaustion and despair. The general population of this country has no idea of what is about to happen.
The Government couldn’t care less. Don’t expect to see coordination or leadership any time soon – all they care about is avoiding a technical recession.
The whole year is complete write-off; football now seems like an unnecessary indulgence – it’s now about trying to get through what is to come without too much of a hit.
Throughout the day I’ve thought about the infamous Boxing Day tsunami footage where the water recedes and people become distracted by the exposed shoreline and stranded fish from the impending flood that is about to engulf them.
I may be catastrophising, but right now it seems to me like this country is like one of those people looking at the shore and not at the horizon.
Take care of yourselves, look after your families and look out for your neighbors – particularly if they are elderly.
Al Pal
Next question. Who?
Kamala Harris
Elizabeth Warren
Amy Kloubacher
Or Stacy Abrams
There needs to be a rationing system for prescription and over the counter medications.
We look after a 3yo three days a week. Today he wasn’t his usual bubbly self, although without symptoms of anything much and eating normally. I checked his temperature at 38 deg and went to the local pharmacy for children’s Panadol or similar. They had nothing and said I should hunt around other chemists.
Woolworths next door had Nyal children’s cold and flu medicine for 2yo+ which included reducing fever. So we’ve given him a dose of that and he’s now asleep.
Toilet paper is one thing but I worry about medications of any sort not being available when they are needed.
I don’t believe it.
Arguing about the number of angels on the head of a pin, or how long and which kind of droplets are safe and which aren’t… FFS… or who’s over-reacting, and for which approved or non-approved reasons is pretty stupid.
It’s far easier to just say: “Keep away from as many people as you can, and worry about the political correctness later.” The virus does not discriminate between the woke and the wanker, the blessed or the bogan.
Slagging someone off because they don’t meet someone else’s high standards of moral rectitude will not stop the virus.
LR,
I teach theory and programming, and have a large team of tutors to man the discussion forums and interactive webinars, so I’m fairly set. There are a wide variety of tools to support remote teaching, and we had made move in that direction to support Chinese students that were still overseas.
But for those courses that have hands-on, practical element – I don’t know how they will do it…
Vic
Any of those. But my pick would be Elizabeth Warren. She would attract the Sanders voters. The. Ext would be Harris but she comes from California which is a win anyway. She is young and smart however.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/03/15/newspoll-51-49-labor-12/comment-page-7/#comment-3360686
DW – podcast Corona Cast – was on ABC NR earlier today, some pretty good data, and not a pollyTIC around …
Vic, sorry – next.
Al Pal
“Any of those. But my pick would be Elizabeth Warren. She would attract the Sanders voters. The. Ext would be Harris but she comes from California which is a win anyway. She is young and smart however.”
Warren comes from Mass, another blue state. I doubt Warren is a likely running mate for that reason. Plus, she is a divisive figure, even within the Democratic party.
Blobbit: “And what the hells happened in Norway? Third highest infection rate”
Norway’s (and, for that matter, Switzerland’s) ratio of deaths/recoveries to infections is very low. This suggests that these nations might have undertaken a far more comprehensive testing regime than other European nations. Which further suggests that the rates in Norway and Switzerland of well over 200 infections per 1 million population is much closer to the true level across Europe generally: as opposed to the lower rates currently being reported in, for example, France and Spain.
Germany is an outlier: a large number of reported cases, very few deaths or recoveries, but also a very low proportion of the overall population infected. I’m not sure quite what is going on there: perhaps the rates of testing are varying region by region.
Italy is another outlier with its massive death rate: probably the combined effect of a) the country’s demographic profile; and b) very little testing going on of anyone who isn’t showing serious symptoms.
Puffytmd –
This might be the one?
https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/CRYSTAL-SERENITY-IMO-9243667-MMSI-311536000
Coronavirus quarantine rule prompts WA threat of $50,000 penalty as panic buying intensifies
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-15/coronavirus-quarantine-rule-prompts-wa-threat-of-$50,000-penalty/12057554
Morning all. Its hard not to be a little concerned if Australia’s policy is matching Britain’s. There are serious concerns about USA and UK, as others have said.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/backlash-as-british-experts-say-herd-immunity-policy-may-have-severe-consequences-20200316-p54ahs.html
That sucks citizen.
The two chemists here have been limiting sales and querying people who buy childrens panadol. Yet still, I got the last large bottle at one (the non name brand) on the weekend (there were small bottles still available). I only bought it because we had run out from a recent ear infection. We have back up childrens nurofen but learnt it is not wise to be using that with COVID19 around.
The chemist said they expected more deliveries but struggling to keep up with demand.
I’m surprised that the WHO doesn’t start referring to this website for Corona Virus advice.
It might be that Biden will pick his female running mate from among the Democratic State Governors. Interesting selection to choose from.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laura_Kelly
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Janet_Mills
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gretchen_Whitmer
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michelle_Lujan_Grisham
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kate_Brown
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gina_Raimondo
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muriel_Bowser
(Muriel Bowser is a mayor of DC, but she made wiki’s list of governors.)
VP’s.
I was wondering why peeps arent talking about the Florida chap who ran for Governor as VP candidate. Gillum. Then I googled.
Kevin Rudd has penned an article for The Grauniad:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/16/the-governments-coronavirus-crisis-approach-is-go-late-go-half-measures-and-go-to-hillsong
Victoria:
“Kamala Harris
Elizabeth Warren
Amy Kloubacher
Or Stacy Abrams”
If the theory is that Trump’s presidency is going to explode as coronavirus surges and the US economy goes into a nose-dive, then Klobuchar is the smart choice. The other three all have a certain amount of risk about them:
Harris because she there is a risk she will become a target for slurs arising from her early professional/personal relationship with Willie Brown, and also because the rainbow constituency to whom she would naturally appeal doesn’t seem to have liked her rather gung-ho performance as an ADA. This is a pity, because I think she’s really smart and talented.
Warren because she is seen as both difficult and far too left-wing and woke: with the added problem that her woke credentials were rather undermined by all the “Pocahontas” stuff.
Abrams would be great if the battle for the presidency depended on getting the African-American vote out. But I’m suggesting that this might no longer be the case: the path to victory might be more through the swing states as a result of people becoming disenchanted with Trump’s handling of the current crisis. Such voters won’t be overly-enamoured by Abrams: rightly or wrongly, she has been portrayed by the right-wing media in the US as both an far left ideologue and an angry firebrand.
Klobuchar therefore looks like a very good choice to me. If Biden were suddenly to need to depart from the White House for a well-deserved long rest at a lovely home by the lake with excellent nursing staff, Klobuchar comes across as an extremely safe pair of hands to take over. The only criticisms of seen of her by the Fox News brigade is that she’s a bit boring: which many would surely see as a strength at the moment.
If circumstances change, and the coronavirus issue diminishes, then I’d be more inclined to favour Abrams or another African-American female politician of good standing (I don’t know who this would be).
Bushfire Bill @ #307 Monday, March 16th, 2020 – 11:20 am
So maybe say that instead of harping on about Chinese people and their restaurants.
DP
I would have described the Scomulus as “Go late, go small, go mates”.
If the aim of the VP pick is unity with the under-45’s demographic, then perhaps Nina Turner.
Warren seems to have burned some bridges with the progressive wing.
Fuck off AR. You have a one-trick mind.
Your purity will NOT save you, idiot.
See new Tweets
Conversation
Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
AWESOME
The 1st clinical trial of a potential #vaccine for #coronavirus will start TOMORROW in #Seattle.
Although it may take 12-18 months to “fully validate” a vaccine, we should manufacture doses of our best options NOW, so we can vaccinate SOONER.
Government official: Coronavirus vaccine trial starts Monday
WASHINGTON (AP) — A clinical trial evaluating a vaccine designed to protect against the new coronavirus will begin Monday, according to a government official. The first participant in the…
apnews.com
I reckon MMT might get a try. I don’t think there’s anything left in standard economic theory.
Dandy Murray @ #308 Monday, March 16th, 2020 – 12:21 pm
Hi Dandy, Lr,
I teach at a Uni and while our classes are proceeding for now, things will probably change soon. I can certainly deliver the lectures online, the tutes are another matter….A colleague suggested online worksheets for the tutes, not assessed, but a hurdle requirement nonetheless. Might be an option…..
If Biden picks Klobuchar as VP, wins the election, becomes incapacitated before inauguration and Klobuchar becomes POTUS…
will they pay out on my bet?
And can I say “i told youse so”?
What have people to deserve the likes of Trump. I would add Bjohnson and Scomo to the mix
Adam Schiff
@RepAdamSchiff
·
7h
Mr. President, keep your focus on the current crisis. The delay in testing and your failure to lead are already costing us dearly.
Your attacks on the independence of the justice system and rewarding of cronies who lied for you can wait.
Incompetence kills.
Quote Tweet
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
· 8h
So now it is reported that, after destroying his life & the life of his wonderful family (and many others also), the FBI, working in conjunction with the Justice Department, has “lost” the records of General Michael Flynn. How convenient. I am strongly considering a Full Pardon!
meherbaba
“If the theory is that Trump’s presidency is going to explode as coronavirus surges and the US economy goes into a nose-dive, then Klobuchar is the smart choice. The other three all have a certain amount of risk about them: ”
Agreed. Plus Klobuchar has the Midwest connection.
Blobbit,
MMT is really just an extreme version of automatic stabilisers and Keynesian stimulus, which we’ll get plenty of (even if the current Government is trying their best to avoid it).
Seapooch
“ Have spent the day going through teleconference after teleconference with various health and emergency coordinators and Government officials and advisors and hearing experts implore that the opportunity to prevent a disaster has already passed and there is zero capacity for healthcare in this country to handle what is coming.”
—————-
It is so obvious even to a layman like me that the neo-liberal system is designed for this outcome. When i read months ago about China I knew Australians are naked and exposed by the crooks they have handed their lives to.
I am feeling very angry.
The Gang of Rogues in Canberra and all their parasitic mates who have designed for this outcome should be personally held responsible for the killings that are coming and should end up in gaol.
It’s about time politicians are made to bear the consequences of the outcomes of their evil. Losing an election and retiring to a government sinecure is not bearing the consequences.
“Dandy Murraysays:
Monday, March 16, 2020 at 1:02 pm
Blobbit,
MMT is really just an extreme version of automatic stabilisers and Keynesian stimulus, which we’ll get plenty of (even if the current Government is trying their best to avoid it).”
The key difference is that the “debt” disappears. I’d suggest that QE is really just MMT, but dressed up so it doesn’t look so much like it.
Simon Katich @ #329 Monday, March 16th, 2020 – 12:58 pm
I doubt that will happen, Uncle Joe looks very spritely for his age, and hey, with the best medical care in the world even Donald Trump has survived 4 years as POTUS! However, you may be interested in reading this:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/13/11-likeliest-people-be-bidens-vp/
So, don’t count your chickens yet, or your winnings. 🙂
lizzie
Thanks for the SMH link regarding increasing commute times.
The underlying story is that more of Sydney’s roads are congested. This partly explains the surge in public transport use.
My remedy to this is to introduce a high speed rail network designed to also be the backbone of a much faster commuter rail network. You transfer most of the express services between major centres (like St Marys, Campbelltown, Hornsby, Parramatta etc) onto the high speed network. That means you can free the existing network to operate with simpler timetables. That then allows knock on speed ups. That’s the simple version anyhow.
Rail should be the preferred primary mode of transport for non-local journeys across the Sydney basin. Non local means that if you took the journey by car you’d have to traverse more than 10 km of motorway or arterial standard road. This is relevant because these are the most expensive roads and its the longer car trips that are accounting for much of the congestion and much of the cost. And its in that domain that rail can compete.
A bit of theory here.
There is a thing called the Downs-Thompson Paradox.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Downs%E2%80%93Thomson_paradox
It states that the equilibrium speed of a road network is determined by the speed of the competing public transport network. For fairly intuitive reasons. The more people that use the road, the slower it gets, the more that instead use public transport – until an equilibrium is reached.
There is a corollary to this that seldom gets spoken of. Maybe I should get my name attached to this statement..
The speed of the road network is determined by the speed of the public transport network.
A conclusion you can then draw is that the faster the public transport network, the faster that competing roads are. Why? Because if you make public transport faster, you take people out of cars. Fewer cars means less congestion.
The constant battle I have with transport people is that they simply don’t care. They see public transport as a necessary evil. A second class last-resort method for second class people who can’t drive. Attached to this idea is the idea that we just need to keep provisioning more roads. This is economically stupid.
Now up to 9 immediate family members in home pokey.
The first six are generic: part of a 12 million person lock down in Manila, so no immediate issues there…
The other three were in close contact with a person from the US who is now being tested. One of the three was someone whom we would normally be babysitting tomorrow. But now not.
Crossing fingers seems a little bit inadequate!
Bonza @ #324 Monday, March 16th, 2020 – 12:53 pm
Bonza,
Bernie Sanders is a dead duck. He’ll never pick a VP Running Mate in his life! And Joe Biden has way better choices at his disposal.
citizen: “There needs to be a rationing system for prescription and over the counter medications.”
This wasn’t helped by the Victoria Chief Medical Officer’s slip yesterday, when he told people to stock up on 2 months’ of vital medicines: seemingly not realising that, for many years, the Australian Government has not permitted people to be dispensed more than 1 month of most prescription medicines other than in exceptional circumstances.
Thankfully, Dr Sutton’s comment didn’t receive much coverage, but it was far from helpful.
This is a good example of why we need a single, non-political channel of communication on this issue for the whole of Australia. Someone with a lot of seniority and a hell of a lot of mongrel in them should be appointed to speak to Australians on behalf of the new national cabinet and all Federal, State and Territory health authorities.
Cud,
Again with the High Speed Rail network!?! Talk about a one track mind! We get it already! You are veering into the overkill lane!
Kelvin
Maybe someone pointed out to Scummo that covid19 is going to selectively wipe out the very voters who are most loyal to him?
My mum is 80+ and this means I am effectively in lock down. Only essential shopping. Eat at home. I’ve had to cancel meetings in Sydney. Lots of precautions. This is why I’m around on this blog so much lately.
C@t
You can skim if you want 🙂 I do that with most of your posts on Biden 🙂
With more positive confirmed cases than any other institution in Australia (I think?), UNSW has just now faced up to the inevitable and implemented a policy of remotely accessing classes.
The announcement comes a few hours after the census cut-off (and locking-in of fees) for Term 1.
“Vatican City – 568,000 cases 892,045 deaths 157% mortality rate”
Bugger.. they’ve fixed it now!
Tehan said this morning that the Government is not ordering schools to be closed because if the schools are closed the kids will be out in the community and because if the kids are at home then urgently needed HCW and workers more generally would have to stay at home to look after the kids.
Very sensible reasons, IMO. But there is a kicker.
Will all schools remain open for the length of the pandemic? After all, sending kids home for the school holidays sounds, on the basis of Tehan’s rationale, an irrational thing to do.
OTOH, if they are ordered closed in the next fortnight or so, I would be curious to know what the rationale will be provided for flipping the decision. What would have to change to flip the decision?
I sort of get the school children herd immunity argument. Let’s hope that the nation’s school teachers are happy to be the sacrificial cows and bulls for the school yard herd immunity experiment. It seems to me that if the kids are carrying it at school and shedding, then the teachers are going to be hard put not to pick it up themselves.
Just as well that corporal punishment is passe.
Do you think it’s dawned on the f–king media that jaming in next to each other in a media scrum is kind of a stupid idea.
south @ #346 Monday, March 16th, 2020 – 12:18 pm
One of the interesting ideas I got from reading about the virtual virus that infected World of Warcraft was that journalists are a prime vector for any virus. They put themselves in harms way then return home. Repeatedly.
Anyway, the economy is about to tank hard!
it’s going to be a technical recession, and when everyone realizes that this ia health crisis and not an economic crisis they will remember scomo.
Also, keep an eye on the FTSE100 at about 9pm and the SP500 at 1230am
I don’t want to be critical of the authorities all the time, but I’m finding the data being put out by the various state and federal authorities quite confusing at the moment.
The latest Federal figures on coronavirus (this morning) are that, of the 298 people who have contracted it:
151 had “direct or indirect links to travel outside of Australia” (they don’t define “indirect” so I’m not sure whether or not it includes people who are close contacts of people who have traveled overseas)
11 had “links to places of exposure” (mostly the aged care facility out Epping way)
29 are “known contacts” of known cases
82 are “under investigation” as to how they acquired it
This only adds up to 273. The story for the remaining 25 isn’t clear.
And the 29 figure for “known contacts” contradicts a NSW Health statement from 24 hours before this that 38 sufferers in that state alone were known contacts of someone who had contracted the disease.
Which means, I suspect that some of the NSW 38 have been classified by the Feds among the people with “indirect links to travel outside Australia.”
It’s extremely confusing, and surely quite unnecessary, for the Federal and NSW governments to have different ways of categorising cases.
‘B.S. Fairman says:
Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 11:52 pm
Notice that giving $750 to four million Australians barely moved the dial. I guess there so much going on people didn’t notice.’
Except that they were trying to save their political necks. Instead of going early and going hard they are trying to stop the second quarter of negative growth so that they can’t be accused of being responsible for a Recession.
The $750 has not arrived and will not arrive until next month – not for economic reasons but, as per usual with the most corrupt government since Federation, for party partisan political reasons.
Bent government, bent thinking, bent policies, broken people.