Essential Research leadership ratings

Scott Morrison records a preferred prime minister lead for the first time this year, although his personal ratings remain in net negative territory.

Essential Research continues to disappoint on the voting intention front, but its latest fortnightly poll does include its monthly leadership ratings, which record a recovery in Scott Morrison’s personal standing after the battering it copped during the bsuhfires. Morrison now leads Anthony Albanese 40-35 as preferred prime minister after being tied 36-36 in the last poll, which his first lead out of the six sets of results published so far this year (three apiece from Essential and Newspoll). His approval rating is up two to 41% and disapproval down three to 49%, while Albanese is respectively steady on 41% and up two to 33%.

As related by The Guardian, the poll also finds 71% want investigations into sports rorts to continue, but I suspect that should actually say 51%, as 43% favoured the alternative option that the resignation of Sports Minister Bridget McKenzie should be the end of the matter. The poll also has the unsurprising finding that concern about coronavirus is growing, although we will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today to see by how much.

Other questions produce familiar findings on energy sources (71% favour further taxpayer research into renewables, compared with 57% for hydrogen, 50% for “clean coal” and 38% for nuclear energy) and economic management (the Coalition was rated better overall, but was also seen to favour big business whereas Labor was better at managing the economy to benefit workers). The poll was conducted from 1096 respondents from an online panel, no doubt from Thursday to Sunday.

UPDATE: Full report here. It turns out the poll doesn’t really find an increase in concern about coronavirus over the past month: there’s a two point increase in “very concerned” to 27%, but a five point drop in “quite concerned” to 36%, a two point rise in “not all that concerned” to 28% and a three point increase in “not at all concerned” to 9%. I’d have been interested to see breakdowns by party support on this – Democrats in the US are far more concerned than Republicans – but no such luck.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,649 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings”

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  1. Diogenes @ #3403 Sunday, March 15th, 2020 – 7:00 pm

    CT scan is not a practical screening test for covid as all the staff and patient and machine would have to be decontaminated after each scan so you couldn’t get through many in a day. The test itself is very good as someone pointed out earlier.

    Is it a test for covid or a way of eliminating non-covid patients from the queue? I was interpreting its use in the latter way.

  2. We only need to test people returning from overseas and people with symptoms or that belong to at risk groups. If we stopped in-bound flights then that reduces the number of tests needed.

  3. OC
    “ When I was a medical student I was taught to never do a test that won’t change the patient’s treatment.”
    That’s only partly true though. A positive result makes it much more likely someone will self isolate and that others around him will also self isolate or monitor themselves very closely. That will flatten the curve.
    I know someone who is self isolating because he works with someone who allegedly got it from Tom Hanks at a dinner. If Hanks wasn’t tested, no self isolation.

  4. Cud Chewer, I mentioned the other day I was speaking to a doctor who believed she had already been infected with C19 here in Victoria after attending a conference with someone who had the sniffles and just been in China. Quiet a number of people reported similar systems, consistent with the infection and all had similar timings.

    I said it couldn’t be possible as there would be an epidemic around the hospitals these people worked at. She indicated that they spend little time with patients and sanitise their hands about 50 times a day. So low chance of spreading it further.

    I asked if she could be tested to see if they had had it. Nope. Apparently, the test only tests for viruses and and not antibodies. That is they cannot tell if you have been infected.

    So doing sampling of a population may not tell the whole story. It would not distinguish between people who have not yet been infected and those that have been infected and recovered.

  5. Well done Wesfarmers
    “Wesfarmers to pay coronavirus leave for casual staff who miss shifts

    Thousands of casual workers at Officeworks, Kmart and Target will be paid up to two weeks’ wages for shifts missed if they are required to self-isolate or care for others due to the coronavirus, retail conglomerate Wesfarmers has said

  6. CT is a lot more expensive than RT-PCR. It has a low false positive rate but quite a few false negatives especially in the early phase. It takes about 24 hours longer to become positive.
    The Chinese swear by it and if we run out of tests it might get used, but it gets back to OCs argument. If things have gone to shit that badly, testing is pretty irrelevant. You either need oxygen, CPAP or ventilation or you don’t.
    The RT/PCR test is only about 96% accurate.

  7. From the Guardian.

    German newspaper Welt am Sonntag has reported that US president Donald Trump has sought exclusive rights to a vaccine for the coronavirus which is being developed by a German-based company, CureVac.

    The report, which quoted unnamed sources, said Trump had offered large sums of money to German scientists working on the vaccine, and that the Germany government was working to prevent the US procuring it on this basis.

  8. OC, that test will be interesting. I would be curious to know how many people have been exposed to C19 and have been misdiagnosed or showed no signs of being infected.

  9. Interesting: NSW’s test rate per capita vs South Korea
    2000 per day for nearly 6 million = 1:3000
    20000 per day for just over 50 million = 1:2500

  10. Also, if we had unlimited kits, what are the requirements for processing? Again, I have no idea if it’s as simple as pop the kit on a shelf and see if it changes colour, or of it needs actual skilled human involvement.

  11. The leader of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov has urged people not to panic over coronavirus and offered some calming words 🙂

    ‘Don’t be in a rush to die, you’ll die anyway’

  12. Good to see there is a bit on the plate of the thoroughly unlikeable Peter V’Landys.

    He might need to fix his wiki page too:

    [Peter V’landys loves a punt on the trots betting on NRL teams behind bowler accounts and has influenced many decisions to allow betting corporates to operate in Australia he’s a real Aussie sell out!]

  13. A person well known to me has contracted C-19. Her partner takes the view that it’s a “Commie plot.” He also thinks that ironing wards off homosexuality, even going the extent of ironing his underwear. When homeschooling a nephew, some twenty years ago, Springer was compulsory viewing at lunch:

  14. OC

    Btw I drove from Terrigal to where you want to put the station at Tuggerah at 10am on a Sunday (today). It took 30 minutes using the Tumbi Umbi shortcut and 10kph above the limit. In peak hour using the CC Hwy, not speeding and with say 10 bus stops it would take a minimum of on hour. Not going to work for a commuter.

    Did you not notice that there will also be a HSR station at Gosford itself? From the point of view of a commuter headed south, that’s the better choice of station. You’d only be going from Terrigal to Tuggerah if you were headed north.

    Lets start with the route from Terrigal to Tuggerah.

    Terrigal to Tuggerah (at the interchange with the M1) is at the very best of times a 24 minute drive. That’s right this moment, Sunday evening, using the Tumbi Umbi shortcut – according to Google Maps directions. If I instead ask it to calculate for 10am today it says “typically 24-35 minutes”. So you are quite correct. On a worst case AM peak Monday you expect 25-40 minutes according to Google. But most of the time its typically 30-35 minutes. The limited express bus from Terrigal to Tuggerah would most likely only stop at Tuggerah (conventional) station, losing a few minutes in the process. It would most likely be a continuation of a service from Avoca.

    Note that this bus service would be there mostly for the benefit of people like me who want to come from Newcastle and go to Terrigal Beach. Its not a high volume route. Far more people would be using the other routes that go to Gorokan, Bateau Bay, The Entrance and so on.

    Where the real action occurs is between Terrigal, Erina and Gosford HSR station. This route takes 18 minutes to drive at best, but more typically 25 minutes. A limited express bus taking in one stop at Erina Fair would be expected to take 30 minutes. Given the road conditions and speed limits there really isn’t much difference between how an express bus performs and ordinary driving.

    A commuter who wishes to travel from Terrigal to Sydney is most likely to take this bus. (You can park at Gosford HSR station but there are only a few thousand parking spaces and they cost money). Your journey from Terrigal is likely to begin 40 minutes before train departure. From Gosford HSR station to the Sydney CBD is 30 minutes. Thus 1hr10 overall.

    That’s compared to the drive from Terrigal to Sydney CBD which is going to typically take 1hr45m with parking. Also the timing comparison for Parramatta is almost exactly the same. The HSR network plus an efficient public transport connection is overwhelmingly competitive with driving.

    Note also that the present public transport system would take over 2.5 hours.

  15. As i have said the time is coming when the test will be irrelevant to advice to isolate

    Yes OC, but a large scale random sample testing done now might inform the government to move to mass isolation sooner – and save lives in the process.

  16. Mavis

    He also thinks that ironing wards off homosexuality, even going the extent of ironing his underwear.

    Tell him ironing them is only effective if done while wearing them 😉

  17. I really believe that a lot more people in Australia are infected with COVID-19 than is being reported, for the following reasons. Firstly, health officials in the state of Ohio in America, argued that 1% of the state’s population had already been infected with COVID-19.

    Secondly; because in this country there is a large population of people from overseas on temporary visas, who can’t access medicare. Therefore; they aren’t likely to visit the doctor’s, let alone the emergency department of a hospital unless they are extremely ill. Given these people are younger on average than the general population, they are statistically less likely to become that ill from COVID-19.

    Honestly, I would not be surprised that it is now spreading fast throughout the Universities and TAFE colleges to degree of this country. If that is true then the aged care homes in Armidale are under serious risk of having COVID-19 epidemics, because a lot of their workers are Nursing students at the UNE campus.

  18. Cud Chewer @ #3569 Sunday, March 15th, 2020 – 7:43 pm

    Yes OC, but a large scale random sample testing done now might inform the government to move to mass isolation sooner – and save lives in the process.

    As I read the original comment, it applies to advice to mass isolate as well. As in, a “past a certain point isolation stops being effective, and we may already be there”?

  19. He also thinks that ironing wards off homosexuality, even going the extent of ironing his underwear.
    There is nothing more certain to stop a person thinking about dicks than ironing underwear.

  20. Late Riser

    I want to see a journalist go and find out what stage they are up to. Can they supply in quantity? Do they require approvals? Etc.. etc..

  21. Re OC @8:22.
    [NSW] 2000 per day for nearly 6 million = 1:3000

    The current population of NSW is a bit over 8 million.

  22. nath @ #3575 Sunday, March 15th, 2020 – 8:50 pm

    He also thinks that ironing wards off homosexuality, even going the extent of ironing his underwear.
    There is nothing more certain to stop a person thinking about dicks than ironing underwear.

    You definitely come to mind when one thinks about Bill Shorten.

  23. OC @8:22

    What’s more interesting about South Korea’s test numbers is that the South Korean government was able to obtain test kits at a order of magnitude higher rate with no problem.

    Which begs the question, could our government obtain more test kits if it wanted to?

  24. poroti:

    [‘Tell him ironing them is only effective if done while wearing them ‘]

    I’m too sharing & caring to suggest such(?).

  25. NSW test results from NSW health


    As of 11am 15 March 2020:

    Confirmed cases: 134
    Cases under investigation: 1,924
    Cases tested and excluded: 20,511
    Total: 22,567

  26. What does that mean shellbell?

    Does it mean 1,924 cases tested but with no test results back yet? Or some other kind of investigation. They really should make this clear.

  27. I’m glad cruise ships have been banned. We had one dock here yesterday overnight carrying 3000 passengers. Country of origin: Italy.

  28. Cud Chewer

    A dream guest would be that Irish guy in the video GG posted earlier. Now that would make it worth watching.

  29. GG
    “What are you doing to help everyone deal with this situation from a professional POV?”

    We have
    1. cancelled non urgent surgery
    2. Cancelled all cosmetic stuff
    3. Very stringent surface cleaning
    4. Extensive use of teleconferencing
    5. Putting in dissolvable sutures so no post op appointment needed
    6. Removed half chairs in waiting room for social distancing
    7. Ensure only urgent follow ups seen
    8. Maximising working from home
    9. Screening all staff and patients clinically plus temperature
    10. Taking emergency patients from the public hospitals without charging
    11. Splitting staff into separate teams

    And that’s just for starters

    It’s been a busy few days

  30. Totally on Bill Bowtell’s side:

    If so, please immediately publish your advice and the “very good reasons” and the name(s) of those who advised the government to keep schools open tomorrow. @ScottMorrisonMP— Bill Bowtell (@billbowtell) March 15, 2020

    In response to David Speers PM says closing schools may be a negative – take children out of school & into community could increase danger of virus spreading. “Very good reasons why you would not be moving to wide scale closure of schools”

  31. WTF?

    A Perth church has said it will continue services as usual, because it is protected from the COVID-19 virus by ‘the blood of Jesus.’

    Victory Life Church, founded by tennis champion Margaret Court, made the announcement on Tuesday.

    “Your health and safety is a top priority for us and we have taken a proactive approach to keep our church family healthy and safe,” the church said in a statement.

    “We are in agreement that this Convid-19 (sic) will not come near our dwelling or our church family. We are praying daily for you, knowing that we are all protected by the Blood of Jesus.”

  32. Cud Chewer @ #3439 Sunday, March 15th, 2020 – 7:52 pm

    Late Riser

    I want to see a journalist go and find out what stage they are up to. Can they supply in quantity? Do they require approvals? Etc.. etc..

    Absolutely. We’re in the early stages of this mess. This is our context. But I was thinking of a broader context. I noticed recently (24 hours?) that China was offering support to Italy. I wondered then what was in it for China. I also thought that the first power to emerge from coronavirus would have an advantage, “globally”. (Dutton is our nutshell.) It’s interesting to think of the UK “herd-immunity experiment” from that perspective. So I guess I saw this c19 test in the same context. “Look how smart and helpful we are.” It’s a technique the US has used successfully for a very long time. Depending on how bad c19 gets, and the US appears to be on a poor trajectory, the post c19 world might be a different place.

  33. Dio

    I recall hearing talk about asking people to get their flu shots early – in order to ease the load on the health car system.

    I asked the doctor a couple of days ago about this and took him completely off guard. He hadn’t heard of it apparently.

  34. nath:

    [‘There is nothing more certain to stop a person thinking about dicks than ironing underwear.’]

    I’ll pay that one, though talk of the male appendage should be discouraged.

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