Way back between December 6 and 8, an online poll of 1016 respondents was conducted by Dynata for the Institute of Public Affairs covering myriad issues, results of which have been apportioned out piecemeal ever since. The latest serving seeks to counter the consistent finding of other pollsters that the nation’s most trusted news organisation is the ABC. The results have naturally been received with skepticism in some quarters, although asking respondents if they feel the ABC “does not represent the views of ordinary Australians” only seems dubious in that it’s framed in the negative for no clear reason. The poll found 30% in agreement with the proposition versus 32% who disagreed, leaving 38% on the fence.
The result has been elevated to a vote of no confidence in the organisation by Coalition Senator James McGrath (who I suspect might be surprised if he learned how many of its critics are on the left), while a News Corp report seizes on the result for the 18-24 age cohort to suggest the ABC has lost the esteem of the young. The latter overlooks a sub-sample size that would imply an error margin upwards of 10%. The survey period also predated the worst of the bushfires, which have presumably been good for the broadcaster’s public image. Previous results from the survey have covered the date for Australia Day, local councils making political statements and the powers of unelected bureaucrats and removing references to race from the Constitution.
Some news on state (and territory) affairs, including updates on two of the three by-election campaigns currently in progress, guides to which can be accessed on the sidebar:
• The Northern Territory by-election for the northern Darwin seat of Johnston will be held on February 29, an unwelcome development for Michael Gunner’s struggling Labor government ahead an election on August 22. Much attention was focused on the Greens’ decision to put Labor last on its how-to-vote cards, but it may also prove consequential that the Country Liberals have Labor ahead of the Territory Alliance, the new party formed by former CLP Chief Minister Terry Mills. The party’s candidate, Steven Klose, has been boosted by suggestions the party could emerge as the official opposition if it wins the seat, since it would have three seats to the Country Liberals’ two if Mills is joined by Klose and Jeff Collins, an ex-Labor independent who says he is a “50-50 chance” of joining the party. Tune in to the blog on Saturday for live results reporting with more bells and whistles than you might think the occasion properly demands.
• Labor’s candidate for Queensland’s Bundamba by-election will be Lance McCallum, a former Electrical Trades Union official and current executive director of the Just Transition Group, a government body to help energy workers whose jobs might be lost amid the transition to renewables. Michael McKenna of The Australian ($) reports McCallum was nominated unopposed after winning the endorsement of the Left, to which the seat is reserved under factional arrangements. A rival candidate for the Left faction’s ballot, Nick Thompson, had the backing of the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union, whose state secretary Michael Ravbar has disputed the legitimacy of the result. The only other known candidate is Sharon Bell of One Nation, who was the party’s federal candidate in Blair last year. No word on a Liberal National Party candidate, but The Australian reports the party is “expected to run”, despite the 21.6% Labor margin. Nominations close on Tuesday.
• A Tasmanian parliamentary committee report has recommended restoring the state’s House of Assembly to 35 seats, from which it was cut to 25 in 1998. Each of the state’s five electoral divisions have returned five members under the Hare-Clark proportional representation system, compared with seven seats previously. An all-party agreement was previously in place to do this in 2010 and 2011, before the then Liberal opposition under Will Hodgman withdrew support as a riposte to government budget cuts. No recommendations have been made in relation to the Legislative Council, which was cut from 19 to 15 in 1998, except insofar as the committee considered the possibility of it have dedicated indigenous seats.
Also, note below this one the latest guest post from Adrian Beaumont, covering recent developments involving the nationalist Sinn Finn party in Ireland and the far right Alternative fur Deutschland in Germany, along with yet another election in Israel.
We are seeing a reprise of “BACK IN BLACK”: plenty of announceables, a plan for everything, everybody gets a Kewpie Doll, and Australia is going to be (if it is not already) the envy of the world.
Morrison made it clear on ABC Breakfast this morning: we have only survived coronavirus because of the prudent planning and financial management of his government. We will literally do better out of this than (his exact words) “the rest of the world”.
Putting aside for the moment that the stirring in his pants might be because he can see the End Times coming on (there’s even a plague of locusts covering nine nations in Africa on the boil), we are seeing the classic Scotty from Marketing play here: declare victory before even running onto the field, then make excuses for failure later.
Failure? Excuses?
Yes.
If it all goes belly-up, somebody else will get the blame (I’m struggling to think how that could be Labor, but that’s why I’m not in politics).
Labor is well out of this one. Imagine if they were in power: drought, extinctions, bushfires, floods, plagues, unemployment escalating as business go bankrupt, retail carnage, trade disasters, culminating in blowing the Frydenberg Surplus… all of which have asserted themselves since May, when Labor was supposed to have won the election.
They’d have been a new government, just getting into gear, grappling with a gutted and politicised Public Service. The reality of Morrison’s cooked books would be starting to sink in. The landscape would already be wasted, primed to burn. The Murdoch publications would be full of failure and unfunny cartoons. After having to deal with what’s already, and what’s about to hit Morrison, Labor would lose every election for decades.
Morrison has more on his plate now than even Rudd had to contend with in 2008-2009. Disasters are coming at him from all directions. Spin isn’t going to stop them.
Don’t fall for it.
mundo @ #82 Friday, February 28th, 2020 – 9:51 am
And this load of old cobblers proves, without a shadow of a doubt, that mundo is simply an opportunistic enabler of any proposal that is anti Labor, especially if it involves one whole Labor Party member, who may or may not have their own reasons for opposing the $10000 cash in hand Bill, or just be a clueless numpty themselves, just so mundo can proceed to assume the position of pissing on Labor from great heights.
The only time I’ve personally seen large amounts of cash handed over was during the Bottom of the Harbour time. But then, that was the last time I moved in such exalted circles. 😉
If there is such a problem with $10,000 (because so many people have a few thousand on hand), why not make it $20,000?
The hard early decision by Morrison was blocking tourists and students from China from entering Australia. This struck at the heart of two segments of the economy that together represent around $24 billion.
It is arguable that the decision should have been taken earlier, but not by all that much.
Compared to the rate of declaration of travel restrictions by just about every other nation in the world, Australia was relatively fast out of the blocks.
Even though this decision was taken when C-19 was generally poorly understood.
There was a bit of early confusion about C19 from the CMO, which Hunt also perpetuated.
The early ex-China travel ban decision costs friends of the Government – the tourism industry and the tertiary student industry – a lot of pain.
The arrangements for extracting Australian citizens for China have generally been good, except for the dickhead decision to use CI.
Getting ahead of WHO in declaring a pandemic response is good, IMO.
The gradual pressure on individuals to prepare themselves is also a good strategy. This is being aided and abetted by the states and territories.
A lot of behind-the-scenes work is being done to develop what will turn out to be graduated responses to the C19 management needs as they arise.
Whether the particular plans as they relate to the medical systems responses, should C19 make it into Australia work properly remains to be seen.
But it is hard to argue that Morrison has seriously cocked C19 up, to date.
Why not make it $5000?
I don’t have any money in my wallet and have not had any more months.
Why is it when Morrison, or the Coalition for that matter, for forever and a day, manage to do something at least half decently, the apologists come out of the woodwork with more ‘Atta Boys!’ than you can throw a stick at!?!
Whereas, if it were Labor, the nitpicking at the response would assume Herculean levels and congratulations would be as rare as hen’s teeth?
Player One @ #100 Friday, February 28th, 2020 – 7:25 am
Not the ATO, AUSTRAC.
C@t & Boerwar
It would be v. interesting to know the financial positions of those for and against the free market money theme.
As I was saying…
You can be sure ScoMo will blame the states the moment the coronavirus response goes pear-shaped.
Jaeger @ #112 Friday, February 28th, 2020 – 7:54 am
wRONg. It’ll be Labor’s fault.
Tom the first and best says:
Friday, February 28, 2020 at 1:44 am
A doctor consription referendum would never pass. It is not needed to scrap gap fees for medical services or even ban private health insurance, only for the Commonwealth to ban private medical practice or conscript doctors for civilian purposes (the states are not banned by the constitution from banning private medical practice or conscripting doctors for civilian purposes).
————————————————————————
The British Medical Association got Menzies to successfully insert the civil conscription clause which was reluctantly accepted by Chifley as a bipartisan gesture. The BMA was fighting to prevent Australia adopting a National Health Service along U.K. lines.
I haven’t read the case law since the passage of section 51 (xxiiiA) but it has been enough to allow opponents of “socialized medicine” to give us the mess we have today.
I’ll leave it up to the constitutional experts to frame a referendum question that would make it easy for people to vote YES.
The worst thing that would happen is that there would be a doctor’s strike as happened in Saskatchewan when Tommy Douglas’s agrarian socialist CCF government introduced the forerunner to Canada’s national Medicare program. After three weeks the doctors caved.
From Wikipedia:
“On July 1, 1962, the doctors strike began and approximately 90% of the province’s doctors shut their offices.
“The government brought in doctors from Britain, the United States, and other provinces to staff community clinics that were set up to meet demand for health services. A July 11 rally in support of the doctors in front of the Saskatchewan legislature in Regina attracted about 4,000 people, one tenth the number hoped for by the organizers.
” By mid-July some of the striking doctors returned to work. Lord Taylor, a British physician who had helped implement the National Health Service in the United Kingdom, was brought in as a mediator and the “Saskatoon Agreement” ending the strike was signed on July 23, 1962.
“As a result of the agreement, amendments to the Act were introduced allowing doctors to opt out of Medicare and raising fee payments to doctors under the plan and to increase the number of physicians sitting on the Medical Care Insurance Commission. By 1965, most doctors favoured the continuation of Medicare.
“The strike was a significant test for Medicare. Its failure allowed the program to continue and the Saskatchewan model was adopted throughout Canada within ten years. (the succeeding conservative Liberal government had opposed the plan but) Medicare’s popularity was such that by the election the Liberals promised to not only leave it in place, but expand it even more.
#ASX200 Sector update – ouch:
Financials 5889 -3.38%
Energy 9418 -3.67%
Materials 12490 -3.9%
Industrials 6489 -2.74%
Cons. Discr 2540 -2.9%
Cons. Staple 12275 -2.54%
Health Care 44207 -1.81%
Comms 1204 -2.95%
Info Tech 1294 -4.24%
Utilities 7716 -2.47%#asx #ausbiz
I heard that F1 races have been cancelled due to Corona Virus but I can assure you preparations are still under way for the Grand Prix in Melbourne, with Albert Park looking a picture of green, tram announcements have been updated
What are the objections to banning cash transactions over $10,000?
I can’t think of any situation where you would need to make such a transaction in cash.
When Whitlam was negotiating Medibank the Dental Association refused to join because they thought they would earn more outside Medibank.
Thanks to those greedy short sighted bastards the teeth of Australians is much worse that it ought to be.
In the aftermath of teh Bali bombings Qld victims could be identified by their teeth, their teeth were much worse because Qld does not add flouride to town water supplies
“Why is it when Morrison, or the Coalition for that matter, for forever and a day, manage to do something at least half decently, the apologists come out of the woodwork with more ‘Atta Boys!’ than you can throw a stick at!?!”
***
Morrison and the Coalition have done something half decently? Could have fooled me lol
I think it’s extremely premature to be saying the Coalition have done a “half decent” job of stopping the spread of the virus. Lets hope they have though! This is the kind of thing we all want the government to get right, no matter who is in power.
The Americans are going into a full on panic over it, or at least CNN and MSNBC were last night. They’re also going after Trump hard over his handling of it. Apparently the Donald is furious about the stock market plunge. How unsurprising that his first thought is about himself and his chances of re-election rather than worrying about the American people getting sick.
Danama Papers @ #113 Friday, February 28th, 2020 – 10:55 am
Nah. The Labor States. 🙂
lizzie @ #103 Friday, February 28th, 2020 – 9:29 am
Why should a currency magically stop being legal tender as soon as you amass a certain amount of it?
Why would people need to make cash transations over $10,000?
Well the funeral association is het up, presumably many elderly people save for their funeral with $50 notes stored in the mattress.
People on Newstart get penalised for having more than $500 in the bank. If they want to upgrade their vehicle they might be using gift money from deceased estate given to them as cash to avoid Centrelink.
And really in Australia you must drive a car, maybe not in inner cities
“wRONg. It’ll be Labor’s fault.”
***
No doubt they’ll find someone to blame. The far-right nutters blamed the bushfires on the Greens so why not blame coronavirus on Labor?
Holden Hillbilly @ #115 Friday, February 28th, 2020 – 11:02 am
CSL up 2.27% yesterday. 🙂
billie @ #118 Friday, February 28th, 2020 – 8:08 am
Don’t see your logic here.
How is not having fluoride in the water supply in Qld connected to Medicare?
lizzie @ #110 Friday, February 28th, 2020 – 10:48 am
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/lifestyle/health/coronavirus-questions-over-home-isolation-rules-for-chinese-students-returning-to-australia/news-story/b7d91a7fe8e431868007e36a7a7e2542
This excellento article got a run in“The Australian” this morning and the front page is much the same as The Daily Telegraph.
I noticed both items but considered them to be just the usual work of the monkeys in the back room typing away trying to reproduce the works of Shakespeare.
Notice outside the local Chemist shop asking customers with coughs colds etc to stay at home for 14 days. Gawd help those without support to do for them (old fashioned talk for “looking after”).
Firefox says: Friday, February 28, 2020 at 11:09 am
The Americans are going into a full on panic over it, or at least CNN and MSNBC were last night. They’re also going after Trump hard over his handling of it. Apparently the Donald is furious about the stock market plunge. How unsurprising that his first thought is about himself and his chances of re-election rather than worrying about the American people getting sick.
******************************************************************************
Trump is in a ‘fight-or-flight state’ over coronavirus: ‘Art of the Deal’ co-author
On Thursday’s edition of MSNBC’s “The Beat,” Trump biographer and “Art of the Deal” co-author Tony Schwartz laid out the president’s state of mind over the coronavirus crisis.
“Let’s understand Trump,” said Schwartz. “Trump is the chief energy officer of this land. So, in other words, his energy has a disproportionate impact on all our energy. And he already raised the anxiety of people over the last four years considerably. He’ll exploit fear if he thinks that serves him, or deny fear if he thinks that serves him.”
“As anybody who is in an activated fight-or-flight state, which is where Trump lives, his vision narrows and it narrows to the threat he feels and the threat he feels is not from a pandemic, even though it might likely happen. The threat he feels is to his re-election, and his power. So everything he does is going to be a response to that. And that’s not the public interest.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/02/trump-is-in-a-fight-or-flight-state-over-coronavirus-art-of-the-deal-co-author/
Meanwhile, on the matter of something more important that mere life or death or the governance of the country (football) tonight will see two Aussie rules matches staged at Docklands. One is expected to be a brutal hard-fought contest between bitter rivals desperate for premiership points, the other will be a bit of fun between two contrived teams with nothing at stake.
Guess which one is the curtain-raiser?
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #117 Friday, February 28th, 2020 – 10:05 am
“Legal tender” is supposed to mean something.
Also, buying a car.
It’s fake news.
billie @ #122 Friday, February 28th, 2020 – 8:12 am
Yeah, nah!
Townsville has fluoride in their water supply.
a r @ #131 Friday, February 28th, 2020 – 8:20 am
Legal tender is not an absolute.
I can refuse to accept a payment if you tried to pay me above a certain value in coins.
This is the kind of result that Biden needs to keep his campaign on life support. Anything less than a solid win isn’t going to help him much I don’t think. It’s now or never for him. A narrow victory would make him look weak in his “firewall” state. Coming second would be a total disaster that I can’t see him recovering from. If this poll were replicated, only Biden and Sanders would get any delegates out of SC.
Poll shows Joe Biden with double-digit lead in S.C. ahead of primary
(NEXSTAR) – Ahead of Saturday’s primary, a new statewide poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a commanding lead over his competitors in South Carolina.
According to a Nexstar Media South Carolina TV Stations/Emerson College Poll, Former Vice President Joe Biden received 41.4%, Bernie Sanders received 24.8%, followed by Pete Buttigieg with 11.1%, Tom Steyer with 10.8%, Amy Klobuchar with 5.5%, Elizabeth Warren 4.7% and Tulsi Gabbard with 1.8%.
Candidates must receive at least 15% of the vote Saturday to qualify for any delegates.
The survey was conducted on February 26 and February 27 following Tuesday’s debate and included 550 people. Women made up 59.3% of survey respondents, while men represented 40.7% of the survey.
75.3% of those surveyed identified as Democrat, 20.5% as Independent/other and 4.2% as Republican.
The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 4.1%
On Wednesday, Joe Biden secured the endorsement of Rep. James Clyburn, the highest-ranking black member of Congress and crucial endorsement in the state.
Additional results from the poll will be released Friday morning here at WSPA.com.
https://wgntv.com/news/politics/poll-shows-joe-biden-with-double-digit-lead-in-s-c-ahead-of-primary/
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #133 Friday, February 28th, 2020 – 10:27 am
That’s weird too. But at least with that one it’s possible to identify a motive that isn’t “government wants to keep tabs on everyone”. It prevents people from doing petty things, like this guy:
https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/tax/american-man-pays-3000-tax-with-pennies/news-story/9eeafab380d7b3a181839a0703df8b91#:~:text=Mr%20Stafford%20went%20to%20the,US%243000%20(A%244000).
Oh no! The next time I buy more than ten thousand dollars of cocaine or heroin, if I pay in cash I’ll go to jail!
So the $10,000 limit is supposed to stop criminal transactions? As Limpid Lizard might say, “Git reel”.
Sanders tops democratic field, Trump in latest Marquette poll
MADISON, Wis. (CBS 58) – Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has built a commanding lead over the rest of the democratic candidates according to the latest Marquette University Law School Poll.
For the first time this election season, Sanders tops the poll with 29 percent of people surveyed considering him as their first choice in the democratic primary. Michael Bloomberg comes in second with 17 percent, Joe Biden in third with 15 percent, Pete Buttigieg following at 13 percent, Amy Klobuchar comes in with 11 percent and Elizabeth Warren at 9 percent.
The poll took place between Feb. 19 and 23.
Sanders has had success in Wisconsin in the past. In 2016, he defeated Hillary Clinton in the democratic primary, but eventually lost the nomination to her. Other recent polls, including a Quinnipiac and a UW-Madison Elections Research Survey, also have Sanders with the advantage in Wisconsin, which is expected to be a crucial battleground state in the General Election.
For that race, the Marquette poll reveals a tight competition.
In hypothetical head-to-head matchups against President Trump, Sanders is the only candidate to defeat Trump, with a 48 percent to 46 percent lead. Biden is tied with Trump at 46 percent, as is Amy Klobuchar. Pete Buttigieg is also tied with him and the president holding at 45 percent. Mike Bloomberg trails Trump 45 percent to 44 and Warren also trails the president’s 47 percent to her 44 percent.
Wisconsin is often grouped with Michigan and Pennsylvania as key states for the General Election. Trump was able to flip those states from blue to red in the 2016 race, catapulting him to victory. Those states are critical for either party to win the White House.
https://www.cbs58.com/news/sanders-tops-democratic-field-trump-in-latest-marquette-poll
Rick WilsonVerified account @TheRickWilson
Always a tweet
NE Qld @ #132 Friday, February 28th, 2020 – 10:24 am
Good, I grew up without fluoride in our water, and my teeth are crap. So glad my kids have fluoride now.
John Bolton’s lost leverage :
– in submitting for prepublication review the manuscript of “The Room Where It Happened,” John Bolton has entered a process that could result in the government’s confiscation of the entire value of his book, such as it is.
Regardless of whether the staff of the National Security Council deems parts retrospectively to be “Secret” or even “Top Secret,” they have largely unfettered power to hold the book to be in violation of Bolton’s contract and to take his multimillion-dollar advance and all his future royalties. Bolton’s efforts to highlight the strengths and weaknesses in the Trump White House could end up being “pro bono.”
https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/484692-boltons-lost-leverage#.Xlb384WS4qE.twitter
phoenixRED @ #139 Friday, February 28th, 2020 – 11:35 am
He already has been. But they should do it again. 🙂
Even Fox News shows Trump trailing in 2020 amid market crash and fear over COVID-19
The expanding COVID-19 epidemic and stock market crashes are not the only bad news for President Donald Trump this week.
A new Fox News poll shows Trump trailing six different Democrats in head-to-head matchups.
Head-To-Head Polling:
Sanders/Trump: 49% – 42%
Biden/Trump: 49% – 41%
Bloomberg/Trump: 48% – 40%
Warren/Trump: 46% – 43%
Buttigieg/Trump: 45% – 42%
Klobuchar/Trump: 44% – 43%
Fox News / February 26, 2020 / n=1000 / MOE 3% / Telephonehttps://t.co/Y2uk5XBFDo
— Polling USA (@USA_Polling) February 27, 2020
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/02/even-fox-news-shows-trump-trailing-in-2020-amid-market-crash-and-fear-over-covid-19/
Holden Hillbilly
“Health Care 44207 -1.81%”
So investors are dumping healthcare stocks while there are shortages of health products and a looming pandemic?? How dumb is Australia!
Anyone else who thinks that Fama’s “efficient markets hypothesis” is BS, here is your proof.
lizzie @ #145 Friday, February 28th, 2020 – 8:43 am
Yep, just highlights how important voting is, especially the need to make a considered choice.
I really don’t know if religion is behind this thinking but I have just read that Iran is refusing to isolate its citizens who have contracted the COVID-19 virus and is actually encouraging them to travel to Qom, the epicentre of the virus in Iran. 😯
B Bill
I read with interest your comments on the challenge/opportunity of Morrison facing a second crisis. Like Boerwar, so far I think he has made a useful response to Covid19. That feeling of usefulness must be an exciting new sensation for him.
However yes his economic management skills are still awful. By overplaying the threat posed by Covid19, he increases the economic damage. And the economy was not traveling well before the fires.
I said previously that the only thing holding Australia’s stagnant economy above recession was the spillover effects of a robust external world economy. We specifically were benefitting a lot from Chinese students and tourists, with virtually no growth in local productivity per person. With them gone, the next quarterly GDP figures are going to stink. Morrison has probably been warned and is already laying the groundwork for who to blame other than himself and genius Josh.