An institute you can disparage

A poll for the Institute of Public Affairs shows mixed views on the ABC, but it may be showing its age. Also featured: updates on by-elections in the Northern Territory and Queensland.

Way back between December 6 and 8, an online poll of 1016 respondents was conducted by Dynata for the Institute of Public Affairs covering myriad issues, results of which have been apportioned out piecemeal ever since. The latest serving seeks to counter the consistent finding of other pollsters that the nation’s most trusted news organisation is the ABC. The results have naturally been received with skepticism in some quarters, although asking respondents if they feel the ABC “does not represent the views of ordinary Australians” only seems dubious in that it’s framed in the negative for no clear reason. The poll found 30% in agreement with the proposition versus 32% who disagreed, leaving 38% on the fence.

The result has been elevated to a vote of no confidence in the organisation by Coalition Senator James McGrath (who I suspect might be surprised if he learned how many of its critics are on the left), while a News Corp report seizes on the result for the 18-24 age cohort to suggest the ABC has lost the esteem of the young. The latter overlooks a sub-sample size that would imply an error margin upwards of 10%. The survey period also predated the worst of the bushfires, which have presumably been good for the broadcaster’s public image. Previous results from the survey have covered the date for Australia Day, local councils making political statements and the powers of unelected bureaucrats and removing references to race from the Constitution.

Some news on state (and territory) affairs, including updates on two of the three by-election campaigns currently in progress, guides to which can be accessed on the sidebar:

• The Northern Territory by-election for the northern Darwin seat of Johnston will be held on February 29, an unwelcome development for Michael Gunner’s struggling Labor government ahead an election on August 22. Much attention was focused on the Greens’ decision to put Labor last on its how-to-vote cards, but it may also prove consequential that the Country Liberals have Labor ahead of the Territory Alliance, the new party formed by former CLP Chief Minister Terry Mills. The party’s candidate, Steven Klose, has been boosted by suggestions the party could emerge as the official opposition if it wins the seat, since it would have three seats to the Country Liberals’ two if Mills is joined by Klose and Jeff Collins, an ex-Labor independent who says he is a “50-50 chance” of joining the party. Tune in to the blog on Saturday for live results reporting with more bells and whistles than you might think the occasion properly demands.

• Labor’s candidate for Queensland’s Bundamba by-election will be Lance McCallum, a former Electrical Trades Union official and current executive director of the Just Transition Group, a government body to help energy workers whose jobs might be lost amid the transition to renewables. Michael McKenna of The Australian ($) reports McCallum was nominated unopposed after winning the endorsement of the Left, to which the seat is reserved under factional arrangements. A rival candidate for the Left faction’s ballot, Nick Thompson, had the backing of the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union, whose state secretary Michael Ravbar has disputed the legitimacy of the result. The only other known candidate is Sharon Bell of One Nation, who was the party’s federal candidate in Blair last year. No word on a Liberal National Party candidate, but The Australian reports the party is “expected to run”, despite the 21.6% Labor margin. Nominations close on Tuesday.

• A Tasmanian parliamentary committee report has recommended restoring the state’s House of Assembly to 35 seats, from which it was cut to 25 in 1998. Each of the state’s five electoral divisions have returned five members under the Hare-Clark proportional representation system, compared with seven seats previously. An all-party agreement was previously in place to do this in 2010 and 2011, before the then Liberal opposition under Will Hodgman withdrew support as a riposte to government budget cuts. No recommendations have been made in relation to the Legislative Council, which was cut from 19 to 15 in 1998, except insofar as the committee considered the possibility of it have dedicated indigenous seats.

Also, note below this one the latest guest post from Adrian Beaumont, covering recent developments involving the nationalist Sinn Finn party in Ireland and the far right Alternative fur Deutschland in Germany, along with yet another election in Israel.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,556 comments on “An institute you can disparage”

Comments Page 2 of 32
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  2. Josh Taylor
    @joshgnosis
    ·
    2m

    Home Affair’s Hamish Hansford is arguing that the data retention scheme was only about the *retention* of the data, not about the access. And access outside that scheme is different.

    My head hurts.

  3. ‘Victoria says:
    Friday, February 28, 2020 at 9:13 am

    Boerwar

    AVOs will never work on psychopaths’

    I agree.

    IMO, once a pyschopath has been identified the best thing to do is to lock him or her up for life.

  5. On climate change policy, interesting to read this UK court decision, where a third runway for Heathrow has been knocked back on emission increase grounds, being inconsistent with achieving Paris 2050 goals.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/27/heathrow-third-runway-ruled-illegal-over-climate-change

    You could argue exactly the same for projects like Badgeries Creek here, that have no future if we got serious about reducing emissions or building HSR from Sydney to Melbourne instead, which would free up so many slots at Kingsford Smith as to make Badgeries Creek unnecessary. Likewise with many of our more dubious urban freeways, absent a policy on electric cars.

  7. Soc

    My reading of it is that the third runway was knocked back not because of climate change but because climate change was not considered properly in the decision-making process.

    Happy to be corrected.

  8. Goldman Sachs is worried that the financial effects of coronavirus could see Trump defeated:

    A market meltdown. Surging recession fears. And a sudden spotlight on America’s health care system. Goldman Sachs is warning Wall Street that the coronavirus could cost President Donald Trump the election.

    The potential political fallout from the coronavirus adds yet more uncertainty for investors trying to assess the impact of the fast-moving epidemic.

    “If the coronavirus epidemic materially affects US economic growth it may increase the likelihood of Democratic victory in the 2020 election,” Goldman Sachs analysts led by Ben Snider wrote in a report published Wednesday night.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/27/business/goldman-sachs-trump-election-coronavirus/index.html

  10. Citizen

    It would be sweet irony if it came to pass that the COVID19 causes the demise of Trumps presidency.
    It would be a silver lining amongst the darkness

  11. Boerwar

    Don’t call it mine!! But the reference certainly gives pause.

    I’m very fond of the dark Kumato variety, which is sweet and juicy and I had assumed was simply a commercial version of the Black Russian which I have grown. Now I’ve looked at the label – Syngenta – and I’m not sure.

  13. Had to phone Gloucester Hospital (small regional) this morning and, while on hold waiting to be put through, listened to a longish spiel regarding coronavirus: disease, infectiousness, provisions for treatment etc.

    NSW Health obviously taking things seriously.

  14. As I also mentioned, I have a huge dislike for Morrison and co, but they have been proactive in the COVID19 space. Thankfully
    ______
    I concur, Victoria.
    It’s a good public service being allowed to do its job.

  15. My instinct has served me well throughout my life.
    Not everyone has the gut instinct or intuition to guide them to stay away from potential abusers in relationships.

    Therefore I would like funding to be utilised for young people to learn and look out for signs of people who are going to end up being abusers and perhaps even murderous monsters.
    Better to help people not enter such relationships in the first instance.

  18. Another whistleblower has emerged in the Deep State (sic), which reflects both poorly and well of the US public service… and they actually have a Whisteblower Act with real teeth and protections.

    WASHINGTON — Federal health employees interacted with Americans quarantined for possible exposure to the coronavirus without proper medical training or protective gear, then scattered into the general population, according to a government whistle-blower.

    In a portion of a complaint filing obtained by The New York Times that has been submitted to the Office of the Special Counsel, the whistle-blower, described as a senior leader at the Department of Health and Human Services, said the team was “improperly deployed” to two military bases in California to assist the processing of Americans who had been evacuated from coronavirus hot zones in China and elsewhere.

    The staff members were sent to Travis Air Force Base and March Air Reserve Base and were ordered to enter quarantined areas, including a hangar where coronavirus evacuees were being received. They were not provided training in safety protocols until five days later, the person said.

    Without proper training or equipment, some of the exposed staff members moved freely around and off the bases, with at least one person staying in a nearby hotel and leaving California on a commercial flight. Many were unaware of the need to test their temperature three times a day.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/politics/coronavirus-us-whistleblower.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  19. The interesting thing about Morrison’s handling of C-19 to date is that it is exceptional.

    Everything else he has touched to date has been a shambles.

  21. Email from Greens Rachel Siewert:

    “Today, the Greens have released new information that shows just how cruel past Liberal and Labor governments have been to single parents in this country.

    Our information shows that since 2006, single parents have lost out on $5 billion in payments after they were forced to move to the much lower Newstart Allowance.

    Just take a moment to let that sink in. $5 billion taken from single parents, and tens of thousands of families struggling around the country. That’s money that should be going to single parents to give kids the best start in life.

    These changes were implemented by the Howard Liberal government in 2006; only for the Gillard Labor government to go even further in 2012 and remove the grandfathering provisions protecting some families.

    And the result? Single parents being forced to choose between even the most basic essentials, like rent, food and the cost of a phone. It means parents going without meals to ensure their kids have something to eat.

    It makes it harder to raise kids and harder to find work, with so-called employment services are absolutely failing to give people the support they need.

    This is an appalling way to treat people – and it is a total failure of leadership from this Prime Minister and his self-centred government.

    Since I’ve been in parliament, I’ve been working with people and community organisations to deliver a social security system that supports people, rather than one based on stigmas and demonisation.

    I know that you will continue to support our campaign to ensure that everyone is treated with dignity.

    This means increasing Newstart by $95 a week. It means meaningful support so people can find secure employment. It means doing all we can to make sure no person is forced to live in poverty.”

  22. Yes, I too have to acknowledge our govt has done well with our response to coronavirus.

    When will you guys learn?

    With this mob there is always a wide gap between the spin and the delivery, if any actually eventuates.

  23. Some more from the NY Times article…

    “In the complaint, the whistle-blower painted a grim portrait of agency staff members who found themselves on the front lines of a frantic federal effort to confront the coronavirus in the United States without any preparation or training, and whose own health concerns were dismissed by senior administration officials as detrimental to staff “morale.” They were “admonished,” the complaint said, and “accused of not being team players,” and had their “mental health and emotional stability questioned.”

    After a phone call with health agency leaders to raise their fears about exposure to the virus, the staff members described a “whitewashing” of the situation, characterizing the response as “corrupt” and a “cover-up,” according to the complaint, and telling the whistle-blower that senior officials had treated them as a “nuisance” and did not want to hear their worries about health and safety.”

  25. Boerwar

    The contrast between Morrison’s attitude to the virus and the bushfires/climate change is so obvious and so self-serving, it makes me angry. Suddenly he has daily conferences and heads of state meetings. He may suddenly become ‘popular’ over this, but my opinion of him will not change.

  26. Boerwar @ #69 Friday, February 28th, 2020 – 8:33 am

    The interesting thing about Morrison’s handling of C-19 to date is that it is exceptional.

    Don’t understand where this sort of sentiment is coming from. He seems to have done little aside from holding press conferences where he claims that nonspecific actions and plans have been activated.

  28. Boerwar

    No the Heathrow decision directly related to the climate change impacts of a third runway and the Paris agreement.

    “But the Paris agreement ruling is far-reaching, according to Margaretha Wewerinke-Singh, an international public law expert at Leiden University, in the Netherlands. “Its implications are global,” she said.

    “For the first time, a court has confirmed that the Paris agreement temperature goal has binding effect. This goal was based on overwhelming evidence about the catastrophic risk of exceeding 1.5C of warming. Yet some have argued that the goal is aspirational only, leaving governments free to ignore it in practice.”

    Local air pollution impacts were thrown out as objections, but the overall impacts (i.e. impact on total GHG emissions being inconsistent with meeting Paris obligations) ) were the deciding factor.

    The BBC coverage is quite explicit. “The government’s decision to allow the expansion was unlawful because it did not take climate commitments into account”, the Court of Appeal said.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51658693

    Heathrow will appeal, and might win, but they will have to show how the 3rd runway will not increase emissions. Tall order, given that electric planes are decades away.

  29. Jerry Roberts is a member of the ALP

    Labor’s deadline is near. Do we have an Opposition?

    The Senate Economics Legislation Committee is due to submit its report on the Currency (Restrictions on the Use of Cash) Bill 2019 on Friday 28 February. Labor Senators on the committee have led critical scrutiny of the proposed legislation.

    Will the report reflect their criticism and will Labor join the Greens in defeating the Bill?

    The cash-ban bill formally known as the Currency (Restrictions on the Use of Cash) Bill 2019 is an outrageous attempt by the Government to support the banks when Australia moves to negative interest rates. Nobody is more outraged by this measure than Liberal Party rank-and-file but elected members are ignoring their concerns.
    :::
    The single most concerning feature of Australian democracy right now is the strategy adopted by Labor in Canberra under the leadership of Anthony Albanese. The Party appears content to sit on its hands for the next two years, say as little as possible and do even less, keeping its nose clean while watching the Government make mistakes.

    An Opposition in a democracy that fails to oppose bad legislation cannot sit back and disown the legislation when the public wakes up. Lazy Opposition members are as guilty as acquiescent Government members who toe the Party line. The Opposition has a vital role to play in a democracy. It is truly part of the government.
    :::
    If the bills stay alive we will rely on the Labor Party to find the four-letter-word our schoolboy football coach used to spell out in his memorable three-quarter-time speeches — G U T Z. Will our Parliament represent the people or will it represent the banks? That is the 64 billion dollar question.

    ———————–
    Answer to the 64 billion dollar question:

    Ban on $10,000 cash purchases set to become law despite concerns

    A controversial bill to ban cash payments over $10,000 and impose two-year jail sentences on those caught using cash above that limit is poised to pass Federal Parliament despite bitter divisions within both major parties.

    The Morrison government is set to win support from Labor to legislate the controversial crackdown, which is likely to be opposed by the entire Senate crossbench from the Greens to One Nation.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/ban-on-10-000-cash-purchases-set-to-become-law-despite-concerns-20200227-p5453n.html

  30. Bushfire Bill @ #72 Friday, February 28th, 2020 – 6:37 am

    Yes, I too have to acknowledge our govt has done well with our response to coronavirus.

    When will you guys learn?

    With this mob there is always a wide gap between the spin and the delivery, if any actually eventuates.

    Morrison can posture and blather all he likes, but they have left the authorities to do what they are supposed to do. That’s all Scotty needs to do at this point.

  32. Pegasus @ #79 Friday, February 28th, 2020 – 9:44 am

    Jerry Roberts is a member of the ALP

    Labor’s deadline is near. Do we have an Opposition?

    The Senate Economics Legislation Committee is due to submit its report on the Currency (Restrictions on the Use of Cash) Bill 2019 on Friday 28 February. Labor Senators on the committee have led critical scrutiny of the proposed legislation.

    Will the report reflect their criticism and will Labor join the Greens in defeating the Bill?

    The cash-ban bill formally known as the Currency (Restrictions on the Use of Cash) Bill 2019 is an outrageous attempt by the Government to support the banks when Australia moves to negative interest rates. Nobody is more outraged by this measure than Liberal Party rank-and-file but elected members are ignoring their concerns.
    :::
    The single most concerning feature of Australian democracy right now is the strategy adopted by Labor in Canberra under the leadership of Anthony Albanese. The Party appears content to sit on its hands for the next two years, say as little as possible and do even less, keeping its nose clean while watching the Government make mistakes.

    An Opposition in a democracy that fails to oppose bad legislation cannot sit back and disown the legislation when the public wakes up. Lazy Opposition members are as guilty as acquiescent Government members who toe the Party line. The Opposition has a vital role to play in a democracy. It is truly part of the government.
    :::
    If the bills stay alive we will rely on the Labor Party to find the four-letter-word our schoolboy football coach used to spell out in his memorable three-quarter-time speeches — G U T Z. Will our Parliament represent the people or will it represent the banks? That is the 64 billion dollar question.

    ———————–
    Answer to the 64 billion dollar question:

    Ban on $10,000 cash purchases set to become law despite concerns

    A controversial bill to ban cash payments over $10,000 and impose two-year jail sentences on those caught using cash above that limit is poised to pass Federal Parliament despite bitter divisions within both major parties.

    The Morrison government is set to win support from Labor to legislate the controversial crackdown, which is likely to be opposed by the entire Senate crossbench from the Greens to One Nation.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/ban-on-10-000-cash-purchases-set-to-become-law-despite-concerns-20200227-p5453n.html

    ‘Do we have an Opposition?’
    Yes. The Quiet Party.

  34. One thing is for sure; the Greens are doing an excellent job of distancing Labor from their nonsense. Every anti Labor post is a bonus, and the pages are bonus filled.

  35. Background Briefing: Federal Government warned NT gas could blow Paris target

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/background-briefing/12009398

    The Federal Government is adamant that Australia will meet its 2030 Paris emissions reduction target, and that developing more gas is one way to get there.

    But the ABC can reveal that the Government’s own advisers have warned it that tapping gas reserves, particularly in the Northern Territory, could undermine efforts to meet the target.

    It has prompted Indigenous people grappling with climate change to call on the Government to rethink its push to develop more fossil fuel projects.

    Guests:
    John Dalywater, chairman, Mimal Land Management
    Alfred Rickson, Mimal senior ranger
    Eva Lawler, NT Climate Change Minister
    Angus Taylor, Federal Emissions Reduction Minister
    Tom Swann, researcher, The Australia Institute

    —————-
    How fracking could threaten Australia’s Paris target

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/backgroundbriefing/fracking-could-threaten-australias-paris-target/12006532

    The Morrison Government claims Australia will meet its emissions targets “in a canter”.

    It points to Australia’s status as the world’s largest LNG exporter to show how the nation’s carbon footprint is getting smaller.

    But Background Briefing has seen bombshell emails by government advisors that reveal a very different picture.

    Jane Bardon investigates the true extent of Australia’s fracking emissions.

  37. Nick McKim asking questions about the so-called OTIS group wh are apparently running the more-coal campaign in the Labor party right now.

    Interesting to see how the SDA aligned Labor MP’s are arguing for more climate destroying fossil fuel industry that is nothing to do with their own electorate, or their own electorates real interests.

    It’s not like the retail sector has any problems or issues to consider for those the SDA claim to support and represent

    At least Erica Abetz has given his support.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHIr1h_-qxc

  38. Morrison can posture and blather all he likes, but they have left the authorities to do what they are supposed to do. That’s all Scotty needs to do at this point.

    This has never happened before.

    Why does anyone believe it will start now?

  39. The single most concerning feature of Australian democracy right now is the strategy adopted by Labor in Canberra under the leadership of Anthony Albanese.

    Lol.

  40. Quoll says:
    Friday, February 28, 2020 at 9:57 am

    Nick McKim asking questions about… how the Bush Rat is going with explaining to farmers that he is going to pull their GMO cotton, take at least 605,000 megs of irrigation licences off them them, load them with a shedload of compulsory ecosystem service obligations and close down live exports.

    Good points, Quoll and well worth raising. Well done!

  41. “The single most concerning feature of Australian democracy right now is the strategy adopted by Labor in Canberra under the leadership of Anthony Albanese. ”

    Yes obviously allegations of corruption and illegally handing out hundreds of millions by Federal Cabinet are nothing to worry about.

  44. Boerwar

    Yes, rather than argue over all the individual projects, it would be much better if Australia could adopt a similar legal approach,then consider each project on its merits. No ideology, less risk of a scare campaign, but quite effective.

  45. The single most concerning thing about Australian democracy is Morrison.
    He is corrupt.
    Morrison leads the most corrupt government since Federation.
    Morrison’s corruption is not incidental. Morrison’s corruption is not sporadic.
    Morrison’s corruption is personal, systemic and operates 24/7.
    Morrison’s corruption is getting worse, not better.
    Corruption is the core operating principle of the Morrison Government.

  46. ‘Socrates says:
    Friday, February 28, 2020 at 10:15 am

    Boerwar

    Yes, rather than argue over all the individual projects, it would be much better if Australia could adopt a similar legal approach,then consider each project on its merits. No ideology, less risk of a scare campaign, but quite effective.’

    Hmmmmm………..

    Just about every single Australian environmental approvals legislation has some sort of ultimate ministerial power that completely overrides all processes and outcomes under the Act. It is usually accompanied by some sort of ‘interest’ test to validate it.

  47. Boerwar @ #69 Friday, February 28th, 2020 – 9:33 am

    The interesting thing about Morrison’s handling of C-19 to date is that it is exceptional.

    Everything else he has touched to date has been a shambles.

    Simply because he left it to Greg Hunt and the experts and all that was left for him to do was to be the spokesmodel for very good work.

    He fooled you though and will probably fool a lot of other people as well.

    I mean, looking at it from a medical standpoint, what Scott Morrison has done is to take the advice of the experts and put appropriate actions into place. It’s not Rocket Science, it’s simply logistics.

  48. @deniseshrivell
    ·
    9m
    Just heard from someone who knows someone who was in the room where Taylor spoke this morning. Said audience was very flat. No questions asked. Same old. Same old. Now media projects his lies & underwhelming plans – without counter. We’re very broken #auspol

  49. Boerwar @ #92 Friday, February 28th, 2020 – 10:06 am

    Why are the Greens supporting the black economy tax cheats, criminal cash activities, and money laundering?

    I know, right!?! Because ‘Freedom, man!’ or some equally ridiculous degenerative thinking concept. I mean, who among us has ever had the need to hold $10000 in cash in our hands? It’s what banks are actually for, to hold large sums of our money so we don’t have to carry it around on the street where we can get bonked on the head and have it stolen from us! And no one has said you can’t walk into a bank and get a Cash Cheque for $10000 or more of your money if you want to!

    Jesus wept! The Greens are a bunch of numpties and black market enablers!

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