Return of the frack

A contentious preference recommendation by the Greens brings a Northern Territory by-election to life, while the closure of nominations yields only a small field of candidates for the Queensland seat of Currumbin.

No Newspoll this week, owing to The Australian’s enthusiasm for unleashing them at the start of parliamentary sitting weeks, requiring a three week break rather than the usual two. However, we do have a extensive new poll on the bushfire crisis from the Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods and the Social Research Centre. It finds that fully 78.6% of the population reports being affected by the fires in one way or another, 14.4% severely or directly. Half the sample of 3000 respondents was asked how Scott Morrison had handled the bushfires, of whom 64.5% disapproved; for the other half the question was framed in terms of the government, with 59.4% disapproving.

Beyond that, there’s the two state/territory by-election campaigns currently in progress:

• I have posted a guide to next Saturday’s by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Johnston, which has suddenly became of more than marginal interest owing to the Greens decision to put Labor last on their how-to-vote cards (albeit that local electoral laws prevent these being distributed within close proximity of polling booths). This has been done to protest the decision by Michael Gunner’s Labor government to lift a moratorium on gas fracking exploration. The party has not taken such a step in any jurisdiction since the Queensland state election of July 1995, when it sought to punish Wayne Goss’s government in the seat of Springwood over a planned motorway through a koala habitat. This made a minor contribution to its loss of the seat, and hence to its eventual removal from office after a by-election defeat the following February. There’s acres of useful information on all this on Antony Green’s new blog, which he is publishing independently due to the ABC’s cavalier treatment of the invaluable blog he had there in happier times. There will also be a piece by me on the Greens’ decision in Crikey today, God willing.

• The other by-election in progress at the moment is for the Queensland seat of Currumbin on March 28, for which my guide can be found guide can be found here. With the closure of nominations last week, only two candidates emerged additional to Laura Gerber of the Liberal National Party and Kaylee Campradt of Labor: Sally Spain of the Greens, a perennial candidate for the party in federal and state Gold Coast seats; and Nicholas Bettany of One Nation, about whom the only thing I can tell you is that he recently deleted his Twitter account (what’s preserved of it on the Google cache reveals nothing particularly outrageous).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,591 comments on “Return of the frack”

Comments Page 29 of 32
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  2. ‘Mr Newbie says:
    Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 6:18 pm

    BW

    The number of people on this blog who quack like Greens and who waddle like Greens but who are not Greens is simply amazing.

    Just like the number of people here who post like RWNJ’s, day in, day out, but supposedly vote Labor.’

    Mr Newbie, this is not personal.

    If you hold a political flame for Mr Sanders and feel comfortable with him having three houses while there are half a million homeless people in the US, go ahead and feel comfortable about that.

    THAT is the issue.

    Not whether you are a Greens or whether I am a Labor voter.

  3. Kakuru @ #1323 Thursday, February 20th, 2020 – 3:42 pm

    “Biden took on both Sanders and Bloomberg and demonstrated why polls continue to show him as the Democratic candidate who would have the best chance of beating Trump. ”

    Wait… what? But I thought polls told us Sanders had the best chance of beating Trump!! That’s what Bernie’s people told me, and they never get it wrong.

    Yep. From all the way over here in Australia as well!

  5. Boerwar, when did you develop this deep and abiding concern for the US increasing its debt ? Oh that’s right, it’s because it might be “lefty” debt rather than your two thumbs up approved “right wing” debt, all those lovely weapons and wars.

  8. Boerwar @ #1399 Thursday, February 20th, 2020 – 6:23 pm

    Bellwether

    No. But if you think I might be able to snag some of his billions, where might I apply?

    Seriously, though, Sanders is a hypocrite IF he has three houses while half a million go homeless. He cannot possibly have it both ways. He does not have to be poor as a church mouse. He just has to have one house.

    This is same, same as those Greens who emit 17 tons of CO2 emissions are hypocrites when they complain about a climate emergency. (It is a bit like the Greens are watching their leaking boat fill with water but refusing to bail because it is up to the Government to pass legislation against boat leaks).

    Like he says, he has his home, a place to live in Washington and, like many Americans, a lakehouse for holidays. He had a modest windfall from writing a book that sold well a couple of years ago I believe, and only at that point did he become a millionaire. I have no idea where you get the ‘billions’ idea from.

  9. Donald Trump’s answer to excessive healthcare costs is to take it away from people so they can’t afford to pay for it, so they pay nothing. I guess it’s one way of paying less.

  10. ‘poroti says:
    Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 6:30 pm

    Boerwar, when did you develop this deep and abiding concern for the US increasing its debt ? Oh that’s right, it’s because it might be “lefty” debt rather than your two thumbs up approved “right wing” debt, all those lovely weapons and wars.’

    I don’t give a rat’s arse for the US debt except maybe that if it manages to finally collapse the US and the world economy we’ll also be going down the tubes with the US.

    My point is a bit different. The honest citizens who do Trump’s numbers are going to do more or less exactly what I did on the back-of-the-envelope.

    The voters will be bombarded with that set of numbers. Unlike a huge lot of crap that comes from Trump and his gang of liars, the headline numbers will stand fact checking.

    The voters will take one look at that set of numbers and apply their various pub tests. And they will figure out that, even if it were nice for everyone to have free health, free education, free social services, it won’t work because it can’t work. It is why Sanders is an extremely vulnerable candidate.

    Exactly the same funding miasmic funding principles applies to the sum total of the Greens’ policies in Australia. It is why the Greens will never form government here.

  11. ‘THOUSANDS of Australians on gluten-free diets for self-reported wheat “sensitivities” are potentially risking long term health impacts, including increased cardiovascular risk, a Hunter/Central Coast study has found.’

    ‘..”Identifying genuinely wheat-sensitive individuals is important because the gluten-free diet has a number of potential disadvantages, including adverse effects on cardiovascular risk, higher rates of micronutrient deficiency, and even increased ingestion of toxins such as arsenic,” the study said.

    “That gluten avoidance improves weight control or general health is not supported by published evidence.”‘

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6635259/study-questions-prevalence-of-gluten-free-diets/?cs=14231

  12. Bellwether

    I was referring to Bloomberg’s billions in the context of your asking whether I was on his payroll.

    Sanders does not need three houses. Nobody does. Not when they are socialists. Not while one out of the three houses is empty at any one time. Not while there are half a million homeless. It does not add up. Not when one of the claims for Sanders is that he is authentic.

    It is not authentic to have an empty house while half a million people are homeless.

  15. Further to Socialist Sanders empty houses, I would love to see punitive land taxes on empty houses that are empty for reasons other than frictional moves in the market.

    This would resolve a significant proportion of Australian homelessness and have a significant impact on rent stress.

  17. Shellbell

    I don’t understand this but it concerns me.

    If the transcripts are of the exact words used by the witnesses in the videos then what could be the legal distinction that arises?

    It is not as if motion picture talkies/videos are new technologies.

  18. Bernie owns one primary residence in the state that he represents, a residence in the capital city where he has to spend a lot of time for his job, and one holiday home. This is not an excessive portfolio of properties when you consider that he has to divide his time between Vermont and Washington D.C.

    The larger more important point is that everybody is part of the current system, whether they like the system or not, and it is not necessary for a person to renounce all aspects of that system while they campaign for big changes to it. Trying to nail people for hypocrisy because they don’t set the most extreme personal example that they could possibly set is a deliberate distraction – and a common tactic by people who simply want to discredit systemic and structural change altogether . By shifting the focus to individuals, the aim is to distract attention from the need to change the systems that people are embedded in. It is an effort to demoralise people by claiming that there is no point in campaigning for structural change unless you personally are prepared to stand outside of the system in all aspects of your personal life.

  23. Agree with Nicholas, it makes perfect sense for Bernie to own a property in DC along with his home state but this shows the silliness of attacking people because they own two properties which isn’t excessive for someone on Bernie’s salary.

  24. I think this article has probably been posted before, but if so it is worth posting again and highlighting the final paragraph for those who still think fracking is a good idea …

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/19/oil-gas-industry-far-worse-climate-impact-than-thought-fossil-fuels-methane

    Fracking also appears to have worsened the problem. Atmospheric methane had started to flatten off at the turn of the century, but rose again after a surge in fracking activity in the US and elsewhere. The industry, however, continues to claim that the energy source can be used as a “bridge fuel” because it has lower carbon emissions than oil or coal, but this fails to account for leaks and flares of methane and other gases during extraction.

    Unconventional gas cannot be used as a transition fuel. Only conventional gas – which in many cases has to be extracted anyway as a by-product of extracting oil – is suitable for that purpose.

    Fracking in Australia – when we don’t need to – is just madness 🙁

  25. Bernie owns one primary residence in the state that he represents, a residence in the capital city where he has to spend a lot of time for his job, and one holiday home. This is not an excessive portfolio of properties when you consider that he has to divide his time between Vermont and Washington D.C.

    Why would anyone have a problem with that ..?

  28. @Boerwar
    Which home out of his Vermont and his Washington home do you think he should sell?

    Then what do you think he should do when he is in that state?

  30. BW, would you mind letting me know when you are going to fuck off for the night? I just want to know when I can have some troll-free PB time. Thanks.

  35. P1

    From the same article:

    ‘A single blowout at a natural gas well in Ohio in 2018 discharged more methane over three weeks than the oil and gas industries of France, Norway and the Netherlands released in an entire year.’

    The article states that tighter regulation is the way to deal with methane emissions

    ‘“What this study shows is that we can have a bigger impact on methane in the atmosphere than earlier thought. This allows us to set climate policy priorities right.”’

    ‘…“If correct, gas, coal and oil extraction and distribution around the world are responsible for almost half of all human-induced methane emissions.’

    You’ve cherry picked the article, which sees all forms of fossil fuel extraction as the problem, not one, and is basically optimistic, because identifying where methane emissions are coming from allows them to be dealt with, and indeed should result in reducing emissions more quickly than first thought.

    I will repeat what you so often say to others – Did you read the article? Because if you did, you either didn’t understand it or you’re being dishonest. Deliberately so.

  37. zoomster @ #1434 Thursday, February 20th, 2020 – 7:20 pm

    P1

    From the same article:

    ‘A single blowout at a natural gas well in Ohio in 2018 discharged more methane over three weeks than the oil and gas industries of France, Norway and the Netherlands released in an entire year.’

    The article states that tighter regulation is the way to deal with methane emissions

    ‘“What this study shows is that we can have a bigger impact on methane in the atmosphere than earlier thought. This allows us to set climate policy priorities right.”’

    ‘…“If correct, gas, coal and oil extraction and distribution around the world are responsible for almost half of all human-induced methane emissions.’

    You’ve cherry picked the article, which sees all forms of fossil fuel extraction as the problem, not one, and is basically optimistic, because identifying where methane emissions are coming from allows them to be dealt with, and indeed should result in reducing emissions more quickly than first thought.

    I will repeat what you so often say to others – Did you read the article? Because if you did, you either didn’t understand it or you’re being dishonest. Deliberately so.

    P1 Standard Operating Procedure.

  39. Sanders is selling himself as an authentic socialist.

    He could own one home at home which is fair enough. He could rent a unit when he needs it in Washington. Fair enough, too.

    But, no. Sanders owns one home back home, owns another home in Washington plus he owns a holiday home.

    This is not about what the Clintons do. It is not about what Trump does. It is not about what Bloomberg does. It is not about what Klobuchar does. It is not about what Biden does. It is not about what anybody else does.

    This is not about me. It is not even about you. It is about Sanders. It is about what Sanders does. It is about how socialist Sanders walks the talk. You are what you walk past:

    https://www.google.com/search?q=images+of+homeless+women+in+the+united+states&tbm=isch&source=univ&client=firefox-b-d&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjMsPXV2t_nAhWYbisKHeeiBZIQ7Al6BAgKEBk&biw=1120&bih=534

  40. ‘Catprog says:
    Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 7:12 pm

    @Boerwar
    Which home out of his Vermont and his Washington home do you think he should sell?
    ‘
    Then what do you think he should do when he is in that state?’

    Sanders owns three houses.

    Which socialist principle is he demonstrating in his personal life?

    https://www.google.com/search?q=images+of+us+parks+filled+with+homeless+camps&tbm=isch&source=univ&client=firefox-b-d&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjcwaCA3N_nAhUNdCsKHS2yCwoQ7Al6BAgHEBk&biw=1120&bih=534

  41. ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 7:09 pm

    Bernie owns one primary residence in the state that he represents, a residence in the capital city where he has to spend a lot of time for his job, and one holiday home. This is not an excessive portfolio of properties when you consider that he has to divide his time between Vermont and Washington D.C.

    Why would anyone have a problem with that ..?’

    Why would any of the people in these images have a problem with that:

    https://www.google.com/search?q=images+of+homeless+women+in+the+united+states&tbm=isch&source=univ&client=firefox-b-d&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjMsPXV2t_nAhWYbisKHeeiBZIQ7Al6BAgKEBk&biw=1120&bih=534

  43. Boerwar @ #1440 Thursday, February 20th, 2020 – 7:35 pm

    ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 7:09 pm

    Bernie owns one primary residence in the state that he represents, a residence in the capital city where he has to spend a lot of time for his job, and one holiday home. This is not an excessive portfolio of properties when you consider that he has to divide his time between Vermont and Washington D.C.

    Why would anyone have a problem with that ..?’

    Why would any of the people in these images have a problem with that:

    https://www.google.com/search?q=images+of+homeless+women+in+the+united+states&tbm=isch&source=univ&client=firefox-b-d&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjMsPXV2t_nAhWYbisKHeeiBZIQ7Al6BAgKEBk&biw=1120&bih=534

    Bernie has the most aggressive policy of any candidate in closing the inequality gap.

    That’s why you want to Kill Bernie.

  45. BW: “Free medicare for all: $3.8 trillion per annum.”

    See, this is what gets me about BW. He gets on his hobby horse of the day, kills it, and then just flogs that dead horse all freaking day. Relentlessly. Not even presenting evidence that refutes his meme-of-the-day does so much as bats an eyelid. Hence how he can continue to pump out trite like the above quote even after presenting him with evidence that medicare for all will not cost any more than health already costs the government. It has been pointed out to him several times. Yet here he is, undeterred. Most people would call that trolling.

    And the really annoying part? BW has so many interesting political insights when he is not trolling greens. But mostly he chooses to troll.

  47. OK.

    I will just have to accept that all Greens and all Sanders supporters think that it is perfectly OK for Sanders to have three houses while there are half a million homeless men, women and children in the US.

  48. zoomster @ #1435 Thursday, February 20th, 2020 – 7:20 pm

    P1

    From the same article:

    ‘A single blowout at a natural gas well in Ohio in 2018 discharged more methane over three weeks than the oil and gas industries of France, Norway and the Netherlands released in an entire year.’

    You are aware that was a fracking explosion? Or did you not bother to look that up?

    The article states that tighter regulation is the way to deal with methane emissions

    No it doesn’t. Here what it actually says:

    Although the research will add to pressure on fossil fuel companies, scientists said there was cause for hope because it showed a big extra benefit could come from tighter regulation of the industry and a faster shift towards renewable energy.

    So, regulation could give a “big extra benefit”. How big would that be in metric meagtonnes of methane emissions saved?

    It also says:

    “Placing stricter methane emission regulations on the fossil fuel industry will have the potential to reduce future global warming to a larger extent than previously thought,”

    Why? Because more methane is being emitted – by fracking – than previously thought.

    So, the article does not actually say what you claim.

    You’ve cherry picked the article, which sees all forms of fossil fuel extraction as the problem, not one, and is basically optimistic, because identifying where methane emissions are coming from allows them to be dealt with, and indeed should result in reducing emissions more quickly than first thought.

    I think we can see who is “cherry picking” here. I simply quote verbatim.

    I will repeat what you so often say to others – Did you read the article? Because if you did, you either didn’t understand it or you’re being dishonest. Deliberately so.

    Clearly, I read it, and – what’s more – understood it.

    Whereas you apparently did neither.

  49. lizzie

    “Unemployment has become a billion-dollar industry where private firms are turning massive profits for placing precarious workers in bullshit jobs.”

    In Australia, decades of public funding have led to the creation of a multibillion-dollar industry that produces no value, manufactures no products, and employs no labor. These late-capitalist enterprises instead profit by not employing labor. It’s the business of unemployment — and business is booming.

    Australia is witnessing the rise of the new digital workhouse. Unlike the workhouses of old, the digital workhouse of today is an invisible web of algorithms, e-government websites, and scattered “Work for the Dole” sites, managed by anonymous bureaucrats and owned by private employment service providers. It’s a uniquely neoliberal form of decentralized coercion, and it has two purposes: to discipline and punish unemployed workers, and to privatize what remains of the welfare state.

    With 1,635 outlets nationally, there are now more employment service providers than the total number of McDonald’s franchises in Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea combined. The industry’s primary resources are virtually limitless: for any single job vacancy, 15.71 workers apply. Over three million people want work or want more work, and nearly one in five unemployed fifteen to twenty-four year olds today have been out of work for fifty-two weeks or more.
    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2020/02/australia-digital-workhouse-work-for-the-dole-unemployment

    Can the ALP undo this tangle of profiteers?

    Catching up after a long day.

    I do not think the ALP or anyone can undo this tangle of profiteers, as Goll mentioned the other day. Certainly in NSW, between the state and federal governments, government departments are just a telephone number you call to put you in touch with contractors.

    Unscrambling this egg is no longer possible. We need people who can see how to make progress starting from here (because we really cannot start from 1974), and we need them to be persuasive rather than admonishing.

    Unfortunately, the warlords of the right (mining barons, founders of internet thingies like Google, Facebook and Amazon, and the execrable Uber) have used their money to pay people like Cambridge Analytica and friends, to discover how to use fear and loathing via social media to target the 30% of people who only make up their mind when they enter the ballot box.

    They sway just enough to the right to win the elections. I expect this pattern to continue. The nasty right know that it is better to win consistently with a small majority, so that everyone has hope that change is possible. Like the Lottery in George Orwell’s 1984: no one actually knew anyone who had won it, but everyone know of friends-of-friends who had won. This gave enough hope to tolerate the horrible totalitarian regime.

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