Wherein we finally wrap up the Call of the Board series, a slowly unfolding state-by-state round-up every seat result from last year’s federal election. Here we tie up the loose ends of the territories, where Labor achieved a clean sweep of five seats – an essentially foregone conclusion for the Australian Capital Territory (which went from two to three seats at this election), but a strong result for them in the Northern Territory (which may be set to lose its second at the next). Previous episodes of the series dealt with Sydney (here and here), regional New South Wales, Melbourne, regional Victoria, south-east Queensland, regional Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia and Tasmania.
Solomon (Labor 3.1%; 3.0% swing to CLP): The always marginal seat that covers Darwin has only gone the way of the winning party once out of the last four elections (in 2013), this time returning Luke Gosling after he gained it for Labor in 2016. Gosling’s 6.0% winning margin off a 7.4% swing in 2016 was the clearest win in the history of a highly marginal seat, the previous record having been Dave Tollner’s 2.8% win for the Country Liberal Party in 2004. This meant he had enough change to record the seat’s second-biggest margin even after a 3.0% swing back to the Country Liberals. As the map to the right illustrates, the pattern of swings in the seat reflected broader themes from the election: the affluent area around the city centre swung to Labor, but the lower-income suburbs of the north went the other way, and the more conservative new suburbia of Palmerston went further still.
Lingiari (Labor 5.5%; 2.7% swing to CLP): Warren Snowdon retained the remainder-of-NT seat of Lingiari, which he has held without interruption since 2001, his closest shave in that time being a 0.9% margin in 2013. The swings in the two Northern Territory seats have been closely matched at the last election, with a 7.5% blowout in Lingiari in 2016 followed by a 2.7% correction this time. There have been occasions in the past where swings varied widely between Alice Springs and Katherine on the one hand and the remote communities in the other, but not this time.
Bean (Labor 7.5%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): The ACT’s new third seat was created entirely from territory that was formerly in the Canberra electorate, whose member Gai Brodtmann did not seek re-election. David Smith, who had previously filled Katy Gallagher’s Senate vacancy when she fell foul of section 44 in May 2018, had no trouble holding Bean for Labor in the face of a slight swing. Left-wing independent Jamie Christie scored a creditable 8.3%, contributing to solid drops on the primary vote for both major parties.
Canberra (Labor 17.1%; 4.1% swing to Labor): The Canberra electorate covers the central third of the capital, and might be regarded as the true “new” seat since it drew territory from both of the previous electorates. Like Darwin, Canberra offered a miniature reflection of national trend in that the city’s inner area moved solidly further to the left, while the suburbs swung to the Liberals. This was reflected in a 4.6% primary vote increase for the Greens, reducing the gap with the Liberals to 27.8% to 23.3%. This is the lowest yet recorded in an ACT seat, but with the Liberal how-to-vote directing preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens, they would probably have remained out of contention if they had made up the difference. With the departure of Gai Brodtmann, its new Labor member is Alicia Payne, who dropped 2.0% on the primary vote to 40.5%.
Fenner (Labor 10.6%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): Labor’s Andrew Leigh suffered a slight swing from similar primary vote numbers to 2016, the main disturbance being the appearance of the United Australia Party with 4.1%.
Itza:
Plenty of commentators have made the observation that Barr’s ‘complaints’ were just pretend that he was concerned at the appearance of the DoJ doing Trump’s bidding.
Diogenes says:
Saturday, February 15, 2020 at 12:00 am
https://youtu.be/Les39aIKbzE
You forget how painful a scratch record is.
Respect and a little bit of fear
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/editorial/2020/02/15/respect-and-little-bit-fear/15816852009386
In the face of increasing environmental activism and, peaceful civil disobedience and civil dissent around global heating, legislation to criminalise such actions and the demonisation of activists are occurring at state level by governments of both major stripes, as well as at federal level where both major parties vote in lockstep on anti-terrorism and security-related legislation .
Sally Yates: Trump is transforming the DOJ into his ‘personal grudge squad’
Former deputy Attorney General Sally Yates has written a scathing column for the Washington Post in which she outlines all the ways that President Donald Trump has corrupted the United States Department of Justice in his quest to transform it into what she describes as his “personal grudge squad.”
In her op-ed, Yates argues that the president’s constant tweeting about the DOJ has undermined its independence, as attorneys there might decide to make prosecutorial decisions based on whether or not they think the president would approve.
The most obvious recent example of this came when Attorney General Bill Barr intervened to reduce the sentencing guidelines for Trump ally Roger Stone. In fact, Trump continued attacking the DOJ and its employees even after he got what he wanted from Barr.
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/02/sally-yates-trump-is-transforming-the-doj-into-his-personal-grudge-squad/
Player One
Glad you’ve finally received help.
The suspicion that Red Cross is more interested in its own future than helping current bushfire victims is surely borne out now.
Confessions @ #51 Saturday, February 15th, 2020 – 9:47 am
Yes, which was why I was a bit surprised that the New Yorker piece was so solidly of the opinion that Barr was trying to contain Trump, and why I made the post — talking points for an early Saturday morning before another storm comes a blowin’, apparently.
Pegasus @ #53 Saturday, February 15th, 2020 – 9:48 am
Yup. The politicians know where this situation is heading. It is really just a matter of how fast people wake up to the fact that politicians are part of the problem, not part of the solution.
We don’t need more political gamesmanship – we need integrity
https://theaimn.com/we-dont-need-more-political-gamesmanship-we-need-integrity/
“I can understand that they must address the employment fears of regional Queenslanders, but pretending that there will be an increasing, or even ongoing, number of jobs in the coal industry is not helping anyone.
I can understand them wanting to put the focus on the government because they have been responsible for the last six and a half years of stewardship.
But I am disappointed that, instead of offering alternative approaches, they seem to be devoting their energy to trying to humiliate a government that has no conscience.
What a waste of time.
Who cares about them “defeating the government” in a vote about who will be Deputy Speaker?
Who cares about whether or not Matthias Cormann is banned from sitting in the swivel chair for three weeks?
Certainly, the grants programs (aka political slush funds) have drawn deserved attention – but do you hear Labor saying the power should be taken away from government ministers to overrule a merits-based appraisal?
:::
When they pour scorn on Coalition jobs for the boys and girls, do you ever hear Labor saying that politicians should not be the ones handing out these jobs?
:::
Labor has many very good MPs but their strategists suck big time and their pandering to factions leads them to bad decisions. What is the point of Richard Marles?
:::
This Otis group who want to move Labor further towards what they call the centre are endangering your support from your base. They are thinking about their own re-election rather than the direction the country must head.
We don’t want another party vying for a centre that keeps moving further to the right. We want people with integrity who make decisions based on expert advice about the best interests of the nation, not on how to appeal to people who will never vote for you.
Offer us an alternative rather than a squabbling rabble only interested in themselves.”
C@tmomma,
You and Cud will have to let me know how intense D.E. is is going to be mouse/keyboard driven after you start playing. I have nerve crush in both hands and that causes problems for me with a lot of games.
Your post at 8.36 a.m. – I see Baahh left out, “Now if you will excuse me I have to go and wipe off this brown smelly substance off my nose and then continue to fulfil my totally unbiased work in the Donald Office of Reveng…er, Deparment of Justice.”
Some US cartoons. Apologies if previously posted.
P1
Glad to hear you have had a positive result. Keep up the good fight! The meek never inherit the earth, so to speak.
lizzie @ #55 Saturday, February 15th, 2020 – 9:51 am
Indeed. You wouldn’t believe the contempt for the Red Cross you see on the ground here. At our local emergency centre – which is still packed solid every day – Vinnies and Salvos both have 3 desks. Red Cross has 1 desk.
The Vinnies and Salvos booths are snowed under, with people sometimes waiting hours to see them. Same for most of the other booths. But the Red Cross booth is always empty. I feel sorry for the person manning it. It’s not their fault.
Trump is trying to undermine democracy in the US like the Coalition have already managed here. Getting independent institutions to do your bidding – investigating rivals and not investigating friends.
But he has a long way to go to emulate the politically motivated RCs (dont trust my opinion on this – even Howard said they were politically targeted). And the peeps in the FBI and DoJ seem to have moral backbone that is harder to break.
Bushfire Bill @ #10 Saturday, February 15th, 2020 – 7:48 am
Keep up the good fight BB. Larry Kudlow backs you – I wonder why? Others have a rather more nuanced view. The air in Dixon street is still safe to breath – unless you’re vaping in the vicinity.
Nevada is next and the signs do not look good for avoiding another Iowa debacle. Perhaps what the media should be doing is downplaying expectations.
…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/02/14/will-nevada-be-another-caucus-nightmare/
https://johnmenadue.com/saturdays-good-reading-and-listening-for-the-weekend-52/#more-36146
The MSM in lock step with the two major parties propagate the myth wtte a first preference vote for anyone else is a wasted vote. As for our federal system of preferential voting and how it works – sshhhh.
I read about how people where not going to the Chinese restaurants, I though bugger this nonsense. Chinese takeaway to end the week. It would seem in our little country town the thought was pretty common. Ended up getting a free can of coke because of the wait. Snowed under was an understatement.
Pegasus
If you want to shout into the wind and achieve nothing vote green, don’t complain that most realize that the choice is Liberal or Labor and if you fight one as you do continually you support the other.
We have what you fought for, you won, enjoy it.
Dare I ask P1, what was your problem with the Red Cross?
When I was travelling out back around New Years, and had had my fill of the commercial radio, I listened to some ABC radio. James Whatshisname was hosting some sort of telethon to raise money for the Red Cross. Someone texted in (not me!) asking what their record is on admin fees and other measures of charity quality. James ripped into the texter, saying – how dare he ask such questions at a time like this.
Tosser. It is everyones right and dare I say duty to know about this when giving.
Red Cross is normally pretty good and the funds are well used and directed. But others not always so. For example, I once had a doorknocker trying to get me to sign up for regular donations to Mission Australia. I asked how much of my money was going to go to Mission Australia and what their admin costs were. The chap was honest – he said ONLY 50% of the money goes to Mission Australia in the first year and he didnt have a clue about Mission Australias admin costs.
Charities need to spend on admin. They need to pay wages (some people volunteer but many programs need paid staff – most people who work for charities earn well below average wages). There are overheads. But some charities are more aware of their duties in this regard than others, and use your money more carefully than others.
Dont get me started on international aid programs and charities.
Political donations
https://johnmenadue.com/saturdays-good-reading-and-listening-for-the-weekend-52/#more-36146
The Pharmacy Guild
Stephen Mayne notes:
———–
Stephen Mayne: Quid Pro Quo: who paid who before the Election and what do they want?
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/quid-pro-quo-who-paid-who-before-the-election-and-what-do-they-want/
.
The same goes for Trump, who also apparently doesn’t even bother to stay faithful to women he marries.
That seems to me an excellent point.
ABC RN Big Ideas
A history of popular protest in Australia
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/a-history-of-popular-protest-in-australia/11914654
“Popular protest movements have helped shift attitudes and shape Australia. Suffragettes pushed for the right of women to vote. Millions marched to demand an end to Vietnam War. Early gay and lesbian Mardi Gras marchers paved the way for LGBITQ rights. Today, Extinction Rebellion protesters are taking to the streets. What are the ingredients of a successful protest? Do rallies and radical activism, still get results?”
The program covers protests over land rights, apartheid and other forms of racial discrimination, gay rights, conscription, green bans, land rights, anti-war concerns, and development, going back to 1916. Around the middle of the program (29 minutes) is a discussion about present assaults on political expression by the Tasmanian, Queensland and Commonwealth governments.
Panel:
Patricia Turner – CEO, National Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisation; Bob Brown – former Greens leader; environmentalist & activist; Peter Edwards – historian, honorary professor, ANU and Deakin University, author; and, Verity Burgmann – Adjunct Professor of Politics, Monash University, activist, author
Nicholas Stuart – Militarising climate change is about seizing the political agenda
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6624977/militarising-climate-change-is-about-seizing-the-political-agenda/?cs=14246
‘Pegasus says:
Saturday, February 15, 2020 at 9:48 am
In the face of increasing environmental activism and, peaceful civil disobedience and civil dissent around global heating, legislation to criminalise such actions and the demonisation of activists are occurring at state level by governments of both major stripes, as well as at federal level where both major parties vote in lockstep on anti-terrorism and security-related legislation .’
Your self-pitying whinging is totally pathetic. Off you go. Protest now. It is the right time. We have just had over a week of protests, civil dissent, etc, etc, etc, in the nation’s capital. Nobody much noticed except the participants who were, presumably, whinging about being turned into ‘criminals’.
One person’s ‘civil disobedience’ is another person’s law breaking.
Off you go, don a singed koala suit, wear a placard, and do stop this pathetic whining.
Speaking of Pete Buttigeig’s gayness being a plus or minus in his bid for the Presidency, who else but old PussyGrabber himself weighs in.
And Dotard has such a slime ball way of getting what he wants into the public domain without owning it. All the ‘I’m hearing…’ and ‘They are saying…’ bullshit gets a good work out here. And throw in the plausible deniability on which he has built his reputation.
“President Trump revealed in a Thursday interview that he would be open to voting for a gay candidate for president.
Fox News’s Geraldo Rivera asked Trump on an episode of his podcast released Thursday if Americans would “vote for a gay man to be president.”
“I think so,” Trump said. “I think there would be some that wouldn’t, and I wouldn’t be among that group, to be honest with you.”
“I think that it doesn’t seem to be hurting Pete ‘Boot-edge-edge,’” Trump continued, using a phonetic pronunciation of former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s (D) name. Trump has previously joked about the former mayor’s last name. “It doesn’t seem to be hurting him very much.”
Trump added, “But there would certainly be a group. You know this better than I do. There would be a group that probably wouldn’t. But you and I would not be in that group.”
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/483062-trump-reveals-he-would-vote-for-a-gay-presidential-candidate
BB I’m no expert but have take an interest as I was to go to Europe in July.
Coronavirus seems to be vary infectious, people seem to be able to get it and recover with ease, others not so. The death rate seems to be no worse than a bad flu. Spanish flu was said to be 10% and they didn’t stop that at a time when it took months to get to Australia. The death rate is not even close.
Indonesia is saying they have no case?
WHO Is saying 18 months for a vaccine.
It makes sense to slow it down as much as they can so that health services don’t get over whelmed,
but it is hard to see it being stopped in the modern world.
I’m pretty sure Australia won’t be closing down it’s cities.
No value in panicking, I hope I am wrong but I don’t think I will be going to Europe, this is not going to be over in five months.
Today’s disease names are less catchy, but also less likely to cause stigma
https://theconversation.com/todays-disease-names-are-less-catchy-but-also-less-likely-to-cause-stigma-131465
Does anyone else want to tackle BW’s “pathetic whining”? Speaking for myself, life’s too short.
frednk @ #78 Saturday, February 15th, 2020 – 9:34 am
Why would you think you would be “safer” in Australia than Europe?
Pegasus says:
Saturday, February 15, 2020 at 10:47 am
Does anyone else want to tackle BW’s “pathetic whining”? Speaking for myself, life’s too short.
BW makes some very good points.
Intent on gaslighting’: Race discrimination commissioner calls for anti-racism funding
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/intent-on-gaslighting-race-discrimination-commissioner-calls-for-anti-racism-funding-20200214-p540so.html
It’s Time says:
.
Why would you think you would be “safer” in Australia than Europe?
You have to get there. I can’t see being locked up in an aluminum tube for 24 hours with 400 other people as a positive, and it the panic continues, there are new risks, getting back.
frednk
By flying to Europe you obviously haven’t committed to BW’s pledge.
Pegasus says:
Saturday, February 15, 2020 at 10:47 am
Does anyone else want to tackle BW’s “pathetic whining”? Speaking for myself, life’s too short.
______________________________
That’s exactly how I feel when I skip your cut and pastes!
A tough day for the QANON peeps. First McCabe and now Vindman.
peg
(Not having a go at you, you’re just the one who posted them —)
The articles you posted at 9.48 and 9.57 seem to contradict each other.
One says that voters are more comfortable with a shift to the right, the other that Labor doesn’t need to go there to attract voters.
Too many commentators seem to be telling Labor what to do not from the perspective of what will actually win votes (which is, alas, a grubby necessity if you’re to do anything about anything) but instead, pushing their own personal barrows.
To some extent ‘I didn’t vote for Labor because…’ can be a good starting point, but that assumes that one’s personal beef with Labor is exactly the same beef every person who decided not to vote for Labor had. By definition, that’s a self indulgent attitude.
And I think the whole pudding is being over egged. Everyone expected Labor to win, because of the polls. Thus the election result was a shock.
The result is people have over reacted. If Labor didn’t win, then, the meme goes, everything Labor did must have been not only wrong but disastrously so. It must have had the wrong policies, it must have campaigned badly, it must have had the wrong leader, team, campaign staff etc etc – rather than that (of course) there was room for improvement in all of these areas.
And, of course, the next election will throw up a different set of circumstances to the last one. Tweak all of the last election’s failures to bring them up to a high peak of perfection, and Labor might still lose, because what worked/didn’t work last time is not much of a guide to what will/will not next time.
Labor has to be careful not to throw babies out with bathwaters; it also has to be careful not to take on board too much well meaning advice to lurch in any particular direction.
NO LATTE FOR YOU! 1 YEAR!
TPOF
Apparently, other cut and pastes are acceptable to you including your own. I understand your need to single me out for your snarking which you feel the compulsion do when you pop up.
But, hey, thank you for your attention. I do understand why you don’t want to inform yourself of alternative views. It’s really simple to click on the link provided which, unlike some others, I supply 99% of the time (unintentional errors of omission can happen).
lizzie
‘(Mayne) also notes the general silence from the commercial media: why would they want to see limits on campaign expenditure, most of which goes into media advertising?’
One of the perpetual issues I’ve dealt with when campaigning is local media complaining that we’re not spending money with them….always with the implication that, if we don’t, we can’t expect good coverage for our campaign.
…as a result, I media monitor campaign reporting locally, and then, rather than reward local media outlets who don’t give us balanced coverage, we would focus letter box campaigns or similar in those areas..
z
As I have said before, I don’t necessarily provide links to which I agree with 100% or whatever. They provide ‘food for thought’. As I have said many times over the years, I deliberately come to PB because it is obviously not a ‘safe place’ for Greens, in contrast to Laborites, and I do not wish to participate in an echo chamber.
The other thing is: if the election SUCH a disaster for Labor, they should have lost more than 1 seat (net).
The corruption message should be voiced loud and clear right up to the next election. One thing aussie voters hate more than infighting, is corruption.
If Labor can keep the heat on the corrupt activities of this govt, it should make for a better showing.
The other thing is honesty over coal mining jobs. These people will need to be retrained … not because the ALP will shut down coalmines, because the market will.
zoomster, might also explain why your local media wont host your next $10K/head fundraiser.
frednk
I haven’t checked for a couple of days, but it still seems to be the case that there haven’t been any new countries reporting the virus for about a week now. This suggests that the containment/quarantine strategies are working.
Pegasus says:
Saturday, February 15, 2020 at 10:54 am
frednk
By flying to Europe you obviously haven’t committed to BW’s pledge.
No I haven’t, but I think the way for is wholesale adoption of renewables as fast as possible and an orderly exit from coal as demand falls. Take advantage of the opportunities that are opening up.
BW’s pledge should be taken before you try and destroy.
We were planning to visit (South) Korea in April but have postponed for the meantime. The issue is not Korea itself which I am sure is just as safe as Australia but the flights and the possibility of being quarantined somewhere in Australia or overseas.
z
In my neck of the woods we have decided letter boxing is a waste of time and resources, both financial and human.
Of course, both major parties have lots of money to burn. Just this week we received a flyer from Liberal Liu and another one from Labor upper house mp Leane. Did we read them – No. Tossed into the recycling bin….
‘Simon Katich says:
Saturday, February 15, 2020 at 10:59 am
By flying to Europe you obviously haven’t committed to BW’s pledge.
NO LATTE FOR YOU! 1 YEAR!’
365 kg of CO2 emissions for a year’s worth of latte.
That is about 14.6 tree’s worth of sequestration.
How much CO2 emitted in a single return flight to Europe? You would have to include construction emissions, terminal emissions, hangar emissions, six lane highway to the airport constructions emissions, runway emissions, etc, etc, etc.).
In a real climate emergency real Greens would not fly – or they would plant and maintain the trees equivalent in sequestration. (The ticket carbon offset only covers the flight fuel so it is fake news.)
The Greens notion that they are forced to continue the world’s second highest per capita emissions because the Government MAKES them do it is facile, and intellectually and ethically dishonest.
Despite a lot of posturing about how unfair it is to ask a Greens not to fly, the Greens cannot have it both ways: either they have a climate emergency and they behave accordingly, or there is no climate emergency and they behave accordingly.