9:27am Sunday The exit poll for Saturday’s Irish election has been released. The governing Fine Gael has 22.4%, the far-left Sinn Fein 22.3% and Fianna Fail 22.2%, so there’s only 0.2% between the top three parties. The Greens have 7.9%. The full exit poll is in the comments. No vote counting in Ireland until tonight AEDT.
5:15pm Friday With all precincts reporting, Buttigieg provisionally wins Iowa’s state delegate count by 0.1%. However, the AP will not declare a winner owing to irregularities. We will probably never know for sure who won Iowa’s state delegate count.
Sanders won both of the popular vote measures. He won the “initial” vote by 3.5% and the “final” vote by 1.5%.
4:37pm This tweet explains why Sanders is doing so well with these satellite caucuses.
4:35pm Late counting Iowa drama! I’m not sure what the “satellite caucuses” are, but there were four of them, one for each of Iowa’s Congressional Districts. Three of them have reported, and they are all very strong for Sanders. There’s still one to go.
With 97% in, Buttigieg now leads Sanders by just three state delegates or 0.15%. Sanders leads by 3.5% on the “initial” popular vote, and by 1.5% on the “final” popular vote.
10:41am In the FiveThirtyEight post-Iowa model, Biden’s chance of winning a pledged delegate majority has plunged from 43% to 21%, with Sanders up to 37%. The probability that nobody wins a pledged delegate majority (contested convention) is up to 27%.
10:20am Thursday More Iowa results! With 86% in, Buttigieg leads Sanders by 26.7% to 25.4% on state delegates, the measure the US media is using to call a winner. Warren has 18.3%, Biden 15.8% and Klobuchar 12.1%.
On two other measures, Sanders is still ahead. He leads Buttigieg by 24.3% to 21.6% on “initial” popular votes. He leads by 26.1% to 25.5% on “final” popular votes after realignment.
4:05pm 71% of precincts are now in for the Dem Iowa caucus. The latest 9% haven’t made much difference to the figures.
2:50pm My Conversation article on these caucuses is up. We need to see if there’s a significant impact on national polls from these results. The next contest is New Hampshire on February 11; polls close by 12pm February 12 AEDT.
There was a big moment in Trump’s State of the Union address today. At the end of the speech, Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi literally tore it up.
10:30am New York Times analyst Nate Cohn says results reported so far are representative of the whole state.
10am Wednesday We FINALLY have more Iowa results. With 62% of precincts reporting, Buttigieg leads Sanders by 27% to 25% on State Delegate Equivalents, the traditional measure that most of the media has focussed on. Warren has 18%, Biden 16% and Klobuchar 13%.
On the two other measures, Sanders leads. He leads on the “initial” popular votes by 24.5% to 21.4% for Buttigieg. He leads on the “final” popular votes after realignment by 26% to 25%.
8:15pm More than EIGHT hours after the caucuses began, still only 2% has been reported! I hope we have better results by tomorrow morning.
3:57pm In Ireland, a new poll has Sinn Fein in outright first on 25%, with Fianna Fail on 23%, Fine Gael 20% and the Greens 8%.
3:43pm Nate Silver
At this point, it's been 3.6 hours since the start of the caucuses and 1.9% of precincts have reported results, which extrapolates out to knowing the results in a mere 189 hours, which would be at 9:30 pm next Tuesday, after voting in the NH primary has already closed.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 4, 2020
3:15pm Turnout at these caucuses in on pace for 2016. In 2016, 172,000 participated in the Iowa Dem caucuses, well down from the record 240,000 in 2008. In 2008, the Dems had a charismatic candidate in Barack Obama.
3:05pm With 1.9% in, Sanders is on top with 28% followed by Warren at 25%, Buttigieg 24%, Klobuchar 12% and Biden just 11%.
2:57pm On the Dem side, we’ve only got 32 of 1,765 precincts reporting their post-realignment votes. Much slower than in 2016, when 85% had reported by this time.
2:55pm In 2016, 187,000 votes were cast in the Republican Iowa caucuses. With 83% in, 29,000 votes have been cast in 2020.
2:35pm Still only 1.7% counted, with Buttigieg leading Sanders by 1.3% after realignment. Biden down to 14%. Hurry up!!
1:56pm In the Republican caucus, Trump has over 96% of the vote. Republicans love Trump.
1:54pm By “after realignment”, I mean after the initial division. Candidates polling below 15% in a particular precinct are declared unviable, and their supporters are asked to pick a viable candidate. Candidates originally declared unviable can become viable if they pick up enough to make it over 15% in the second round. It’s explained in this Conversation article.
1:50pm The AP has Buttigieg leading Sanders by 27% to 24% on final alignment numbers, followed by 19.5% for Biden, 15% Warren and 14% Klobuchar. 1.3% of precincts are in.
1:40pm The New York Times results page now gives Sanders 408 final votes (after realignment presumably), Buttigieg 380, Biden 310, Warren 277 and Klobuchar 176.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The final RealClearPolitics poll average for Iowa gave Bernie Sanders 24.2%, Joe Biden 20.2%, Pete Buttigieg 16.4%, Elizabeth Warren 15.6% and Amy Klobuchar 8.6%. As I noted in Friday’s Conversation article, polling for these caucuses has often been inaccurate. The caucuses begin at 12pm AEDT, and the process is described in that article. I will begin commenting on the results about 1:30pm after I return from bridge.
Elsewhere, the far-left Sinn Féin has surged in the Irish polls ahead of this Saturday’s election. Sinn Féin is equal first with Fianna Fáil in one recent poll, and two points behind in another. There is a chance that the two dominant Irish parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, will fail to win a combined majority of the seats. Both these parties are conservative. Other parties likely to win seats are left-wing, so a left majority is a possibility.
Polls in Ireland close at 10pm local time (9am Sunday AEDT). Exit polls will be released then, but no votes are counted until the next morning (Sunday evening AEDT). As Ireland uses Tasmania’s Hare-Clark system, it is likely to take at least a few days to finalise all counting.
And in Britain, Boris Johnson appears to want a hard Brexit on December 31, when the transition period ends.
And I have absolutely no idea why you started in on me, Bellwether, but I noticed it. So learn how to block people that upset you then. I mean, if you can’t handle me, block me. It’s as simple as that.
Oh, and it’s not because you won’t support Mayor Pete. That’s your choice entirely. However, you have seemed to just ignore factual background information about Bernie Sanders that should make you at least think twice about him. Though that’s your prerogative, I guess.
And now, back to the best hope for the Democratic Party to beat Donald Trump…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/how-iowa-made-pete-buttigieg-a-breakout-star-and-dealt-joe-biden-a-gut-punch/2020/02/06/b1bddae4-46c6-11ea-bc78-8a18f7afcee7_story.html
So true.
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2020/02/pete-buttigieg-barack-obama-democratic-race-2020-lgbt?fbclid=IwAR1chDFY02lcPcqkbzgJ-12pxlFpnVoVXwd9e3qJTRlw8wcZ2r3S1_zKtTM
Nicholas
If there are enough “oppressed” voters in the US, and they aren’t too lazy, disinterested, and stupid to vote, they will get their own president. If there arent enough they won’t. You don’t get extra votes for being “oppressed”.
Nicholas is just whining because the great Socialist MMT thought bubble is at risk. He’s smearing Pete out of fear.
Nicholas would make a good little Commissar. Gleefully signing orders to purge Kulaks as a minor functionary. Right up until one of his superiors disappears him behind the woodshed for being such a self righteous pain in the arse.
It would be nice to see a big country try MMT and see how it goes. If it fucks up, they can vote it out. I’d like to see Bernie win as an experiment. We’ve survived Trump. How bad can it get?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #556 Friday, February 7th, 2020 – 9:50 pm
You can tell that Nicholas has lost the plot when he starts putting up links to Jacobin mag. 😆
Not to mention the horn he’s been blowing for Stephanie Kelton over the last few months and just happening not to mention that she is Bernie Sanders’ economics adviser. 😆
The Jacobins were responsible for Robespierre, the Reign of Terror, the failure of The Revolution and Napoleon. Not a group a majority of people would aspire to follow.
“ It would be nice to see a big country try MMT and see how it goes. If it fucks up, they can vote it out. I’d like to see Bernie win as an experiment. We’ve survived Trump. How bad can it get?”
I’m fine with that idea. … but I suggest that it is highly improbable that there are enough Americans who will actually come out and vote for it in the swing states for it to happen. I think it more likely that they would consider voting for a terrible awful impure ‘progressive neoliberal’. That said, I actually think that the folk who are needed will actually sit this one out. For them the economy is OK. They wont be inspired sufficiently come out for any of the bunch of democrats actively seeking the nomination.
In this show biz – reality TV/social media style – age the democrats need a genuine A lister to get out the vote: Oprah or Boston Rob would be their best bets.
Stephanie Kelton would be a great Vice-Presidential nominee for Bernie. She is an extremely effective public speaker, extremely smart, and she is America’s greatest macroeconomist. Economic policy is by far the most important field for the federal government to get right, so her expertise is a perfect match for high office. She has been Bernie’s senior economic adviser for both of his presidential campaigns. She would be superb. And she ticks the identity politics box of electing a female Vice-President.
AE
I’m happy with Pete as well or Warren. Biden would be my least favourite Dem but getting rid of Trump trumps everything.
Paul Benfro has Pete Buttigieg pegged:
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2020/02/pete-buttigieg-barack-obama-democratic-race-2020-lgbt?fbclid=IwAR1chDFY02lcPcqkbzgJ-12pxlFpnVoVXwd9e3qJTRlw8wcZ2r3S1_zKtTM
Diogenes: we are as one.
Nicholas: if only the electoral college was made up of … you …
Someone who proposes Oprah Winfrey as a progressive on economic issues is frankly too obtuse to be taken seriously on any current affairs topic.
I don’t propose Oprah as anything other than a Trump Antidote.
That.
I’d even take the Typhoid Mary of Surveillance Capitalism, Sandberg, over Trump.
Bloomberg would be a dream.
I for one will defend to the death the right of Vice President Earlwood to speak his mind.
Give me liberty or give me death !
Stephanie Kelton appeared on the ABC’s Planet America in January. Here is the full interview:
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/%E2%80%9Cwealthiest-country-on-earth%E2%80%9D-should-just-%E2%80%9Cprint/11945124?pfmredir=sm
A neoliberal centrist can’t be a Trump antidote. It was neoliberal centrism that caused Trump to become President. He is just a symptom, not the underlying problem.
This, a counter-tenor would unlikely impress most:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMJOcyveDq4
Nicholas @ #570 Friday, February 7th, 2020 – 11:17 pm
Moderate candidates are more than the juvenile tags you try to attach to them, Nicholas. And more capable of beating Trump than your heartthrob, Sanders. Or, ‘Crazy Bernie’, as Trump would say a hundred times a day, from now until November.
C@tmomma @ #572 Saturday, February 8th, 2020 – 6:38 am
Pure class. 🙂
“Simon,
It’s not just ‘bragging rights’ coming out of Iowa but the dreaded momentum going into the next round of caucuses and primaries. Also there is historical precedent as well, to the effect that the candidate who won Iowa has gone on to be the nominee in a lot of cases.”
***
Mmmm but because Iowa fucked up so badly neither Sanders or Buttigieg got the bounce that they both would have got if this result was released on the night. Buttigieg got a bit of a bounce but really the performance of the candidates wasn’t the main story. That’s why it helped Biden so much, as he was able to give an almost victory speech on the night and then get the hell out of Dodge (Des Moines).
CNN analysis shows errors in Iowa results count
There are errors in the results count reported by the Iowa Democratic Party for Monday’s caucuses, a CNN analysis shows.
Pete Buttigieg holds a slim lead over Bernie Sanders in the Iowa caucuses with the Iowa Democratic Party announcing on Thursday night that 100% of precincts are reporting.
The former South Bend, Indiana, mayor leads the Vermont senator by one-tenth of one percentage point in the all-important state delegate equivalent count. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, former Vice President Joe Biden and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar are trailing behind Buttigieg and Sanders.
But a CNN analysis shows that multiple counties have reported a different number of state delegate equivalents than they were supposed to have reported, even though all precincts in the county have been tallied. A similar problem appears in several precincts which awarded more state delegate equivalents than they were allotted by the Iowa Democratic Party.
Precinct-level data reveals multiple precincts where violations of the caucus rules may have occurred. In several precincts, the total vote reported in the final round of the popular vote exceeded the total vote in the first round, even though no one new should have been allowed into the room between the two rounds. And in some cases, a viable candidate lost support from the first round to the final round, even though supporters of viable candidates in the first round were supposed to be locked in to their first choice.
At satellite caucuses, the number of state delegate equivalents awarded per congressional district was calculated based on the turnout across all satellite caucuses within that district. The reported total state delegate equivalents appear to differ from the expected values based on the reported first round vote and the formulas announced by the Iowa Democratic Party.
Questions have also been raised about the methods the party used to assign state delegate equivalents to satellite caucus locations within each congressional district. Some individual precincts appear to have received more state delegate equivalents than they should have based on the rules for allocation.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/07/politics/iowa-results-errors/index.html
What an absolute mess.
“Moderate candidates are more than the juvenile tags you try to attach to them, Nicholas. And more capable of beating Trump than your heartthrob, Sanders. Or, ‘Crazy Bernie’, as Trump would say a hundred times a day, from now until November.”
***
None of the candidates has a better chance of defeating Trump than Sanders. None are even close at this stage. And being called crazy by Trump is a massive compliment lol. The last thing you’d want to be is someone who the Donald considers to be sane and rational.
Just dropping by to assure everyone that every single irregularity, every single flaw in the Iowa count is completely innocent and accidental and the refusal of the ‘fake news’ Associated Press to release final tallies due to concerns about all these absolutely innocent irregularities and flaws is an hysterical left wing plot.
Bernie Sanders hits Pete Buttigieg over wealthy donors ahead of New Hampshire debate
Manchester, New Hampshire (CNN) – Bernie Sanders on Friday launched a series of attacks against Pete Buttigieg, suggesting that the former South Bend mayor could not, if elected, be trusted to pushback against the rich individuals and powerful interests that have donated to his campaign.
Four days out from the New Hampshire primary, and just hours away from a debate Friday night, the two appear to be on a collision course, with Sanders leading the Democratic Party’s progressive line and Buttigieg, following his strong showing in Iowa, emerging as the primary’s moderate champion.
“Buttigieg has received campaign contributions from over 40 billionaires, from the CEOs of the largest drug companies in this country, from fossil fuel (financiers), from Wall Street,” Sanders said in an interview with CNN. “Do you think that when people receive money from powerful special interests that they’re really going to stand up to those special interests and do what has to be done for the working class in this country? I don’t think so. It doesn’t work that way.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/07/politics/bernie-sanders-pete-buttigieg-new-hampshire/index.html
Bernie Sanders Deserved to Have a Much Better Week
Malevolent forces in the Democratic Party establishment may or may not be conspiring against Sen. Bernie Sanders. But it’s hard to resist the conclusion that events are.
Mr. Sanders has behaved rather graciously since the debacle at the Iowa caucuses this week, but he has more reason than anyone to grumble about the train wreck and its aftermath. By the time most of the votes had finally been counted, the firebrand independent socialist from Vermont seems to have more or less won the contest in the Hawkeye State, depending on which measure you use. But instead of rolling into New Hampshire with the kind of momentum that an Iowa victory usually supplies, his performance is getting less attention than it might have.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bernie-sanders-deserved-to-have-a-much-better-week-11581101828
Interesting to note that this article is from The Wall Street Journal. Not exactly the people you’d expect to be sticking up for Sanders. Kinda says it all about this Iowa mess.
“ “Buttigieg has received campaign contributions from over 40 billionaires, from the CEOs of the largest drug companies in this country, from fossil fuel (financiers), from Wall Street,” Sanders said in an interview with CNN. “Do you think that when people receive money from powerful special interests that they’re really going to stand up to those special interests and do what has to be done for the working class in this country? I don’t think so. It doesn’t work that way.””
Bernie must be running scared to lash out at Mayor Pete (whose net worth is nothing like Millionaire Bernie btw) like his boy crushing No.1 fan, Nicholas.
They are afraid that actual Democrats have worked out the Bernie problem and may have found a solution with half a chance of beating Trump.
“ Interesting to note that this article is from The Wall Street Journal. Not exactly the people you’d expect to be sticking up for Sanders. Kinda says it all about this Iowa mess.”
Come in spinner. The WSJ wants Trump to win. That’s why they are boosting a Bernie nomination. … Duh!
I’ve been really enjoying CNN’s coverage but I have to say they do have a clear bias towards centrists. They subtly try to downplay Sanders and Warren while pumping up Buttigieg and desperately trying to salvage Biden. However, I’ve noticed some of their political commentators have started taking Bernie more seriously and I think are starting to see that he actually has a very real chance and may be their best shot.
Their presenters don’t even bother trying to hide their contempt for Trump though, which I find rather amusing. Can’t blame them either considering how Trump has relentlessly attacked the media, including singling out CNN multiple times. It’s all out war between them.
“The WSJ wants Trump to win. That’s why they are boosting a Bernie nomination.”
***
That makes no sense though, as Bernie is the biggest threat to Trump’s chances of reelection. By being honest about how Bernie was screwed they’re actually hurting Trump.
Sanders Raises $25 Million in January, a Huge Show of Financial Strength
The Vermont senator’s announcement came as the Biden, Buttigieg and Warren campaigns are showing signs of financial strain.
Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont raised $25 million in January, his campaign said on Thursday, a staggering sum that gives him an enviable financial advantage at a crucial moment in the Democratic primary race.
He plans to use the windfall to immediately buy $5.5 million in television and digital ads across 10 states, at a time when some of his rivals are shifting or cutting their existing ad reservations.
The $25 million haul is more money than any other candidate raised in any full quarter during 2019, including several presidential hopefuls who hold the big-dollar fund-raisers that Mr. Sanders forgoes. The announcement is the latest sign of an epochal change in money in politics, with candidates now able to finance a top-tier national campaign fueled by masses of donors giving a steady stream of small amounts.
For Mr. Sanders’s top rivals, the news is likely to be unsettling: Their campaigns are all showing signs of financial strain. Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., has briefly left the campaign trail to raise money, and former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. is taking time next week for a new batch of fund-raisers.
Mr. Sanders can now plan past the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday with greater financial confidence, an important development given the possibility of an extended Democratic primary with multiple candidates including Michael R. Bloomberg, a self-financing billionaire whose full influence will not be felt until March because he is skipping the first four contests.
The Sanders campaign also announced that it had received 1.3 million donations in January, and that more than 1.5 million different individuals had donated over the course of the campaign.
“Working-class Americans giving $18 at a time are putting our campaign in a strong position to compete in states all over the map,” said Faiz Shakir, Mr. Sanders’s campaign manager, in a statement.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/us/politics/bernie-sanders-donations.html
“ That makes no sense though, as Bernie is the biggest threat to Trump’s chances of reelection. By being honest about how Bernie was screwed they’re actually hurting Trump.”
That assumes that your belief that Americans (especially those that matter in the swing states) will end up putting aside their unbuild bias against ‘socialism’ and their fear of government overreach – in the face of the inevitable $billion dollar+ Republicvnt scare campaign designed to remind them of both.
You might be right of course. Maybe Bernie – like an ole’ time gospel preacher – will get the masses to repent. Maybe unicorns are real as well.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #580 Saturday, February 8th, 2020 – 9:52 am
The best thing you can do is to refute, with relevant data of course, all that he has to say about Wall Street’s backing of Buttigieg. You know you can do it, it must be so easy, surely as easy as ABC. It would only take five minutes of your precious time wouldn’t it?
“ The best thing you can do is to refute, with relevant data of course, all that he has to say about Wall Street’s backing of Buttigieg. You know you can do it, it must be so easy, surely as easy as ABC. It would only take five minutes of your precious time wouldn’t it?”
The Bernie boosters are bragging about the Wall Street Journal saying nice things about Bernie.
When is Bernie going to give up his Wall Street addiction?
“That assumes that your belief that Americans (especially those that matter in the swing states) will end up putting aside their unbuild bias against ‘socialism’ and their fear of government overreach – in the face of the inevitable $billion dollar+ Republicvnt scare campaign designed to remind them of both.”
***
You know those far right scare campaigns that you’re talking about? You’ve been brainwashed by them already. You’re one of the victims of their propaganda. All you do is bang on about evil socialists.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #587 Saturday, February 8th, 2020 – 10:17 am
That is such a silly, baseless comment. Whatever you might think of the relative value of each candidate you must surely understand that it’s common knowledge that Sanders is the least in the thrall of Wall St.? And that he only accepts small private donations. A bit of honesty would be good, even better some factual argument.
The big NH Debate is coming up today at 12pm NSW time. It’s on ABC America. Free live stream on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNCI18p9wSw
I always liked this fan made campaign ad for Bernie. The media truly hate him;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZhkKATtqtU&list=LLVGKDSsJGjl7xmwj0OUR7eA&index=14
Coverage of the debate has already started. Currently just random officials from ABC and the DNC babbling about the event and we had the mandatory rendition of the American anthem, complete with a giant waving flag on the big screen.
D&M made this pretty astute observation on the main thread. It applies to the Herculean task facing Bernie in getting folk outside the BernieBubble to change their minds AND actually come out and vote:
“ one of the Friedman projects was to undermine confidence in democracy by portraying all politicians as “all the same, all corrupt”, so you should not feel that voting makes a difference. Murdoch, and no doubt others, have done their best to contribute to this culture.”
There is actually a flaw in the derisive tactic of lumping ‘centrists’ and the right together as ‘same-same’. Folk that live the The Squad, who love Bernie get all excited, but preaching that message to the masses outside already politically engaged progressive enclaves simply reinforces the a message that ‘government is the problem’ and these folk are more likely to either stay at home or vote for some ‘small government’ candidate who will ‘drain the swamp’. In short, tarring centrists and the right together actually works in favour of the right.
“ That is such a silly, baseless comment.”
If you weren’t as thick as yesterday’s custard you’d have seen that I was merely throwing your trolling tactics back in your face.
“ You know those far right scare campaigns that you’re talking about? You’ve been brainwashed by them already. You’re one of the victims of their propaganda. All you do is bang on about evil socialists.”
This is not about me, I’m simply commenting on what I perceive to be what middle America thinks. I would agree with you that they are brainwashed about not just any form of socialism but also The prospect of any effective government program that doesn’t suit the 1%.
In short, tarring socialists as evil actually works in favour of the far right and the corporate elite. If you do this, you are participating in their scare campaign.
I love how the Bernie people wanted to keep caucuses because it benefitted him and now they don’t like what has happened. A 78 year old socialist in the states who has had a heart attack. He shouldn’t even be in the running. One term wonder if he managed to get in.
There are real centrists, i.e. people whose strategy/ideology is to position themselves between a number of other positions. Then there are people who aren’t in the centre but falsely market themselves as such, the largest group being the faux centrists of the progressive right.
You can tell the difference between the two. Real centrists surround themselves (and need to be surrounded by) people on all sides. They will talk about consensus, they welcome differences in ideas and robust debate, they will talk about building bridges, they will talk about compromise, they will talk about pragmatism, they will talk about bringing people along with them, they may talk about the need to adjust to the right or left. The faux centrists of the progressive right will say similar things (out of the need to market themselves as centrists) except they openly loathe the left, and only ever suggest adjusting to the right.
Bonza
That video is a savage indictment…….of the US mainstream media. Bernie-bashers are basing their opinion of him on the most gossamer-thin opinions gleaned from their most errant ‘journalists’. I honestly don’t get it, this idea that democratic socialism is just flat-out evil without giving any attention to the character of the man himself. Luckily many Americans choose to think for themselves and not to mindlessly follow the deceitful tropes of their sorry MSM.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #594 Saturday, February 8th, 2020 – 11:22 am
So abtruse as to be utterly meaningless I’m afraid. Are you incapable of mounting a reasoned argument?