Iowa Democratic caucuses: live commentary

Live commentary on the US Iowa Democratic caucuses. Also: Sinn Féin surges ahead of Saturday’s Irish election. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

9:27am Sunday The exit poll for Saturday’s Irish election has been released.  The governing Fine Gael has 22.4%, the far-left Sinn Fein 22.3% and Fianna Fail 22.2%, so there’s only 0.2% between the top three parties.  The Greens have 7.9%.  The full exit poll is in the comments.  No vote counting in Ireland until tonight AEDT.

5:15pm Friday With all precincts reporting, Buttigieg provisionally wins Iowa’s state delegate count by 0.1%.  However, the AP will not declare a winner owing to irregularities.  We will probably never know for sure who won Iowa’s state delegate count.

Sanders won both of the popular vote measures.  He won the “initial” vote by 3.5% and the “final” vote by 1.5%.

4:37pm This tweet explains why Sanders is doing so well with these satellite caucuses.

4:35pm Late counting Iowa drama!  I’m not sure what the “satellite caucuses” are, but there were four of them, one for each of Iowa’s Congressional Districts.  Three of them have reported, and they are all very strong for Sanders.  There’s still one to go.

With 97% in, Buttigieg now leads Sanders by just three state delegates or 0.15%.  Sanders leads by 3.5% on the “initial” popular vote, and by 1.5% on the “final” popular vote.

10:41am In the FiveThirtyEight post-Iowa model, Biden’s chance of winning a pledged delegate majority has plunged from 43% to 21%, with Sanders up to 37%.  The probability that nobody wins a pledged delegate majority (contested convention) is up to 27%.

10:20am Thursday More Iowa results!  With 86% in, Buttigieg leads Sanders by 26.7% to 25.4% on state delegates, the measure the US media is using to call a winner.  Warren has 18.3%, Biden 15.8% and Klobuchar 12.1%.

On two other measures, Sanders is still ahead.  He leads Buttigieg by 24.3% to 21.6% on “initial” popular votes.  He leads by 26.1% to 25.5% on “final” popular votes after realignment.

4:05pm 71% of precincts are now in for the Dem Iowa caucus.  The latest 9% haven’t made much difference to the figures.

2:50pm My Conversation article on these caucuses is up.  We need to see if there’s a significant impact on national polls from these results.  The next contest is New Hampshire on February 11; polls close by 12pm February 12 AEDT.

There was a big moment in Trump’s State of the Union address today.  At the end of the speech, Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi literally tore it up.

10:30am New York Times analyst Nate Cohn says results reported so far are representative of the whole state.

10am Wednesday We FINALLY have more Iowa results.  With 62% of precincts reporting, Buttigieg leads Sanders by 27% to 25% on State Delegate Equivalents, the traditional measure that most of the media has focussed on.  Warren has 18%, Biden 16% and Klobuchar 13%.

On the two other measures, Sanders leads.  He leads on the “initial” popular votes by 24.5% to 21.4% for Buttigieg.  He leads on the “final” popular votes after realignment by 26% to 25%.

8:15pm More than EIGHT hours after the caucuses began, still only 2% has been reported!  I hope we have better results by tomorrow morning.

3:57pm In Ireland, a new poll has Sinn Fein in outright first on 25%, with Fianna Fail on 23%, Fine Gael 20% and the Greens 8%.

3:43pm Nate Silver

3:15pm Turnout at these caucuses in on pace for 2016.  In 2016, 172,000 participated in the Iowa Dem caucuses, well down from the record 240,000 in 2008.  In 2008, the Dems had a charismatic candidate in Barack Obama.

3:05pm With 1.9% in, Sanders is on top with 28% followed by Warren at 25%, Buttigieg 24%, Klobuchar 12% and Biden just 11%.

2:57pm On the Dem side, we’ve only got 32 of 1,765 precincts reporting their post-realignment votes.  Much slower than in 2016, when 85% had reported by this time.

2:55pm In 2016, 187,000 votes were cast in the Republican Iowa caucuses.   With 83% in, 29,000 votes have been cast in 2020.

2:35pm Still only 1.7% counted, with Buttigieg leading Sanders by 1.3% after realignment.  Biden down to 14%.  Hurry up!!

1:56pm In the Republican caucus, Trump has over 96% of the vote.  Republicans love Trump.

1:54pm By “after realignment”, I mean after the initial division.  Candidates polling below 15% in a particular precinct are declared unviable, and their supporters are asked to pick a viable candidate.  Candidates originally declared unviable can become viable if they pick up enough to make it over 15% in the second round.  It’s explained in this Conversation article.

1:50pm The AP has Buttigieg leading Sanders by 27% to 24% on final alignment numbers, followed by 19.5% for Biden, 15% Warren and 14% Klobuchar.  1.3% of precincts are in.

1:40pm The New York Times results page now gives Sanders 408 final votes (after realignment presumably), Buttigieg 380, Biden 310, Warren 277 and Klobuchar 176.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The final RealClearPolitics poll average for Iowa gave Bernie Sanders 24.2%, Joe Biden 20.2%, Pete Buttigieg 16.4%, Elizabeth Warren 15.6% and Amy Klobuchar 8.6%. As I noted in Friday’s Conversation article, polling for these caucuses has often been inaccurate. The caucuses begin at 12pm AEDT, and the process is described in that article. I will begin commenting on the results about 1:30pm after I return from bridge.

Elsewhere, the far-left Sinn Féin has surged in the Irish polls ahead of this Saturday’s election. Sinn Féin is equal first with Fianna Fáil in one recent poll, and two points behind in another. There is a chance that the two dominant Irish parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, will fail to win a combined majority of the seats. Both these parties are conservative. Other parties likely to win seats are left-wing, so a left majority is a possibility.

Polls in Ireland close at 10pm local time (9am Sunday AEDT). Exit polls will be released then, but no votes are counted until the next morning (Sunday evening AEDT). As Ireland uses Tasmania’s Hare-Clark system, it is likely to take at least a few days to finalise all counting.

And in Britain, Boris Johnson appears to want a hard Brexit on December 31, when the transition period ends.

708 comments on “Iowa Democratic caucuses: live commentary”

  1. Here’s a far-out scenario to ponder.

    Imagine a Democrat wins in November. However, Trump refuses to go quietly into the background – instead, he keeps performing at rallies etc, and soon announces that he is running for the 2024 presidency. His fanatical supporters, having spent the previous 3 years feeling robbed, push him to a solid win the Republican primary.

    The 22nd amendment only stops a president being elected twice – ordinarily a proven losing president would not be selected again by their party, but these are not ordinary times.

  2. Bernie Sanders Backed by One-Third of New Hampshire Democrats in Poll

    Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders holds a comfortable lead before next week’s New Hampshire primary with nearly double the support of Pete Buttigieg and is favored in nearly every subgroup, according to a new Emerson College poll.

    The Vermont senator leads with 32% in the state, followed by the former South Bend, Indiana, mayor with 17%. Former Vice President Joe Biden was next with 13%, trailed by Senators Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts with 11% each. The poll was conducted from February 2-4 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-05/bernie-sanders-backed-by-one-third-of-new-hampshire-democrats-in-poll

  3. Big A Adrian:

    MN, I always assumed the American’s use of the word “paychecks” in this day and age was just a turn of phrase (like how we say it), not actual things any more. I could be wrong though.

    You are wrong. They do still use paper cheques.

  4. “Interestingly that is a Bloomberg published poll.”

    ***

    Indeed. His media empire has really started ramping up it’s coverage of the election and politics (they’re usually more focused on business and the markets etc). It’s good because the Dems need some media on their side. It sounds wrong to suggest that the media should be taking sides, and it is, but it’s the reality of US politics and we all know that Fox News and the rest of the conservative media are going to do everything they can to support Trump, just as they always do.

  5. So now we find out that it was actually rabid Trump supporters who screwed up the Iowa Caucuses!

    Washington: Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez on Thursday called for a recanvass of the Iowa caucuses after an array of problems delayed results from the party’s first 2020 presidential nominating contest and created uncertainty about their accuracy. “Enough is enough. In light of the problems that have emerged in the implementation of the delegate selection plan and in order to assure public confidence in the results, I am calling on the Iowa Democratic Party to immediately begin a recanvass,” Perez said in a Twitter post. No winner has been declared four days after the caucuses took place in 1600 locations throughout Iowa on Monday night. The delay was initially attributed to a technical problem with a new mobile app, but other concerns have emerged. The Iowa Democratic Party received an “unusually high volume of inbound calls” to its caucus hotline on Monday night from “callers who would hang up immediately after being connected, supporters of President Trump who called to express their displeasure with the Democratic Party, and Iowans looking to confirm details,” a party official said on Thursday. ​Party staff worked to flag and block repeat callers who appeared to be attempting to jam the lines and interfere with the reporting of caucus results, and the call volume was “highly irregular” compared to previous caucuses, the official said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/democrats-call-for-iowa-caucus-recanvass-as-reports-of-interference-emerge-20200207-p53yk4.html

    What utter venal bastards! No wonder they were ready with their cat calls at the Democrats when the caucuses turned to custard!

  6. Irish election humiliation looms for Varadkar – shock poll

    The Irish general election will be held on February 8 at the request of the Taoiseach, but his plans may well backfire. The poll showed Mr Varadkar’s party, Fine Gael, is trailing in the general election run. It revealed Irish republican party Sinn Fein, which is dedicated to the reunification of the island, is ahead with 25 percent of support from the electorate.

    Polling in second was Fianna Fail, headed by Micheal Martin, who are predicted to scoop up 22 percent of the vote.

    Trailing behind in third place, Mr Varadkar’s party is expected to gain only 17 percent of the vote.

    The poll is promising for Ireland’s Green Party, who gained 2.7% of the vote in the last election.

    Current predictions see the Green Party set to gain nine percent of the vote, in what is a marked improvement for the party.

    Ireland’s Labour Party seems to have stagnated, though, with a 6 percent prediction, which is not dissimilar to the 6.6 percent of the vote they gained in the last election.

    The poll was carried out by Survation on February 2 and surveyed 1,074 people. It was carried out on behalf of Sinn Fein – who topped the poll.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1238794/irish-election-leo-varadkar-latest-Sinn-Fein-Fine-Gael-Fianna-Fail

  7. Anyone not entertaining the possibility of conspiracies involving the Iowa count is naive in the extreme. The result isn’t to be trusted and the effect on those that truly respect democratic values will be profound. It’s a sad series of events.

  8. Bellwether
    “Anyone not entertaining the possibility of conspiracies involving the Iowa count is naive in the extreme. ”

    Tin foil hat time….

  9. Get a grip bellwether. The Iowa Dems stuffed up. No conspiracy, just incompetence. There is no DNC/Establishment cabal fudging the results. Sanders only got around 25% because around three-quarters of Iowa caucus goers didn’t vote for him.

  10. Kakuru @ #512 Friday, February 7th, 2020 – 9:58 am

    Get a grip bellwether. The Iowa Dems stuffed up. No conspiracy, just incompetence. There is no DNC/Establishment cabal fudging the results. Sanders only got around 25% because around three-quarters of Iowa caucus goers didn’t vote for him.

    You cannot possibly say that with any surety whatsoever but that won’t stop you. I did say ‘entertaining the possibility’. The absolute certainty of your outright denial of any possibility of meddling is quite frankly mystifying and your ‘tin foil hat’ response I find fucking insulting. If you knew me I can assure you you would not apply that epithet.

  11. C@tmomma @ #515 Friday, February 7th, 2020 – 10:56 am

    Bellweather behaving like an absolute knob again I see.

    The Iowa Democratic Party have had time to do the count twenty times over. Still no result!!! Anyone who 100% denies even the remotest possibility of interference in the process is beyond gullible to me. Please note, I am not saying there has been any interference in the process, nor am I making any suggestions as to any candidate that might profit or lose from any interference, merely that there is some possibility that it might exist. Also, I make an effort to spell other people’s monikers correctly, maybe you could extend me the same courtesy in the future?

  12. “Anyone not entertaining the possibility of conspiracies involving the Iowa count is naive in the extreme.”

    ***

    Certainly raises a lot of questions.

    The DNC is only today calling for a the Iowa Dems to do a recanvass – only now that Sanders has come cantering down the home straight.

    It has also emerged that the Buttigieg campaign had dealings with the company that developed the app at the centre of the Iowa drama.

    Also, the company that created the app, Shadow Inc., is run by former Clinton 2016 campaign members. Says it all right there, regardless of whether it was corruption or just sheer incompetence, as we know the Clinton camp is uniquely gifted in both those areas. Getting the Clinton camp to design your app? Seriously? No wonder the thing failed.

    The argument that supports incompetence as the main reason is strengthened by the fact that this drama has done so much damage to the Dems as a whole. It’s just made the entire organisation, particularly in Iowa, look completely inept.

    It’s certainly quite possible that it was corruption, just as it’s quite possible that it was incompetence.

    NEW DETAILS SHOW HOW DEEPLY IOWA CAUCUS APP DEVELOPER WAS EMBEDDED IN DEMOCRATIC ESTABLISHMENT

    DEMOCRATIC OPERATIVE Tara McGowan is denying that her high-profile liberal firm ACRONYM played a role in the Monday evening caucus debacle, claiming that her firm was merely an investor in the company Shadow Inc., which developed the app at the center of the controversy. But internal company documents, a source close to the firms, and public records show a close and intertwined relationship between Acronym and Shadow.

    In addition, ahead of the caucuses, questions swirled inside Shadow over the company’s ability to deliver a quality product, and there was concern from at least one staff member that senior leaders of Shadow and Acronym — both of which were launched as a new Democratic bulwark against President Donald Trump — have been far from neutral in the Democratic primary.

    Throughout the caucus yesterday, Democratic officials reported widespread problems downloading the app and inconsistencies uploading caucus results, leading to the Iowa Democratic Party’s decision to take the unusual step of delaying the release of the results. This is the first year the app was used, and ahead of the caucuses, the Iowa Democratic Party asked that the app’s name be kept secret. The New York Times reported that “its creators had repeatedly questioned the need to keep it secret.”

    Kyle Tharp, a spokesperson for Acronym, released a statement on Monday night downplaying his company’s affiliation with Shadow.

    “ACRONYM is an investor in several for-profit companies across the progressive media and technology sectors,” Tharp said. “One of those independent, for-profit companies is Shadow, Inc, which also has other private investors.”

    David Plouffe, a former campaign manager to Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential bid who joined Acronym’s board, also distanced himself from the company during an MSNBC panel last night. “I have no knowledge of Shadow,” said Plouffe. “It was news to me.”

    But previous statements and internal Acronym documents suggest that the two companies, which share office space in Denver, Colorado, are deeply intertwined.

    Last year, McGowan, a co-founder of Acronym, wrote on Twitter that she was “so excited to announce @anotheracronym has acquired Groundbase,” a firm that included “their incredible team led by [Gerard Niemira] + are launching Shadow, a new tech company to build smarter infrastructure for campaigns.” McGowan also noted that “With Shadow, we’re building a new model incentivized by adoption over growth.” The acquisition was announced in mid-January of last year.

    In an interview on a related podcast last month, McGowan described Niemira as “the CEO of Shadow, which is the technology company that Acronym is the sole investor in now.”

    What’s more, internal documents from Acronym show a close relationship with Shadow. An internal organizational chart shows digital strategy firm Lockwood Strategy, FWIW Media, and Shadow as part of a unified structure, with Acronym staff involved in the trio’s operations.

    In an all-staff email sent last Friday, an official with Lockwood Strategy reminded team members about “COOL THINGS HAPPENING AROUND ACRONYM.” The list included bullets points such as, “The Iowa caucus is on Monday, and the Shadow team is hard at work,” and “Shadow is working on scaling up VAN integration with Shadow Messaging for some Iowa caucus clients.” (VAN refers to the widely used Democratic voter file technology firm.) Acronym staffers also attended the Shadow staff retreat.

    A person with knowledge of the company’s culture, who asked to remain anonymous for fear of reprisal, shared communications showing that top officials at the company regularly expressed hostility to Sen. Bernie Sanders’s supporters. McGowan is married to Michael Halle, a senior strategist with the Buttigieg campaign. There is no evidence any preference of candidates had any effect on the coding issue that is stalling the Iowa results.

    Acronym launched with a promise to compete with the Trump campaign’s strong emphasis on digital media, launching Democratic messages through paid advertisements on Facebook and other platforms. But the source said the company in many ways was woefully unprepared for the many challenges it had taken on, including the Iowa caucus app.

    A precinct captain for Sanders, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the press, confirmed that the rollout was rushed. “We didn’t know about the app until like a month ago. And we didn’t have access to the app until like three days ago,” the source said.

    “This app has never been used in any real election or tested at a statewide scale and it’s only been contemplated for use for two months now,” David Jefferson, who also serves on the board of Verified Voting, a nonpartisan election integrity organization, told the New York Times.

    Federal campaign finance records show that the Iowa Democratic Party and the Nevada Democratic Party retained Shadow to develop its caucus app. Shadow has also been retained for digital services by Buttigieg’s campaign, which paid the company $42,500 for software-related services last July, and by Joe Biden’s campaign, which paid Shadow $1,225 for text messaging services, last July as well.

    Shadow was launched by former staffers to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign, including Niemira, Krista Davis, Ahna Rao, and James Hickey, according to professional biographies listed on LinkedIn. Shadow did not respond to a request for comment.

    Acronym, which includes a hybrid model of a 501(c)4 entity that does not disclose donors and a Super PAC that does, has been a favorite for deep-pocketed Democratic donors. Donald Sussman, the founder of Paloma Partners, and Michael Moritz, a partner at Sequoia Capital, each donated $1 million to Acronym last year. Filmmaker Steven Spielberg gave $500,000. Investor Seth Klarman, once a major donor to Republican causes, gave $1.5 million to Acronym.

    Acronym appears to have deleted portions of its website showcasing its involvement in Shadow. “ACRONYM is thrilled to announce the launch of Shadow, a new technology company that will exist under the ACRONYM umbrella and build accessible technological infrastructure and tools to enable campaigns to better harness, integrate and manage data across the platforms and technologies they all use,” wrote Niemira in a now-deleted blog post.

    This morning, William McCurdy II, the chair of the Nevada Democratic Party, released a statement announcing that the party will not be using the Shadow app for its February caucus.

    “NV Dems can confidently say that what happened in the Iowa caucus last night will not happen in Nevada on February 22nd. We will not be employing the same app or vendor used in the Iowa caucus,” said McCurdy. “We had already developed a series of backups and redundant reporting systems, and are currently evaluating the best path forward.”

    https://theintercept.com/2020/02/04/iowa-caucus-app-shadow-acronym/

  13. “Thanks Firefox for the link to the CNN town hall. Do you have a running order perchance?”

    ***

    In the order I mentioned them before; Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Patrick.

    The ones yesterday were pretty good. Biden came across well when he was talking about how he dealt with his stutter as a kid. Pollies always look best when they’re talking about something that really means something to them like that. But apart from that it was just normal uninspiring Biden.

    Warren was sharp and on message. You’d expect me to say that since I agreed with pretty much everything she said lol but I thought she presented well and answered the questions clearly.

    Yang was quite interesting to watch. Very charismatic guy. Funny too and got many laughs out of the crowd. Seems like quite a progressive guy who supports putting a price on carbon.

    I didn’t watch Steyer as he was on last and I had to go out.

  14. “The Iowa Democratic Party have had time to do the count twenty times over. Still no result!!! ”

    Bellwether – please don’t take this the wrong way. I don’t intend to impugn your honour, or call your integrity into question. My apologies for the ‘tin hat’ comment.

    But, as a rule, the Iowa caucus is an absolute shemozzle. It might have been quaint in the 19th century, but now it’s a shiboleth. I’ve seen the thing first hand. Even on a good day/night it’s a complete balls-up. I’m sure there are drunken orgies that are better coordinated than the Iowa caucus. Throw a dodgy app into the mix, and I can fully understand why the entire process went to shit.

    So I’m weary of all these claims, no matter how delicately phrased, that the DNC (or some other tentacle of the Establishment) is somehow up to no-good. Nope, it’s all just incompetence.

  15. Ah, so Sanders demanded the Satellite Caucuses after 2016,so Sanders could organise the Satellite Caucuses in Hispanic communities, Universities and Mosques…so Sanders could outperform others that way.

  16. “I don’t think Bernie Sanders would be able to canter between the front door and the back door.”

    ***

    Probably not. But thankfully he’s not trying out for the Olympic 100m sprint lol.

    Besides, I can’t see Trump or Biden doing much cantering either 😛

  17. Firefox

    Hey Firefox, I enjoy your posts very much. But what’s your secret? You can post something I imagine the more conservative Bludgers would find quite provocative and it goes straight through to the keeper. I make an effort to make a fairly mild, reasonable and considered opinion on, say, the deficiencies of the Iowa count and I get jumped on, even insulted. Any tips?

  18. Firefox @ #524 Friday, February 7th, 2020 – 11:51 am

    “I don’t think Bernie Sanders would be able to canter between the front door and the back door.”

    ***

    Probably not. But thankfully he’s not trying out for the Olympic 100m sprint lol.

    Besides, I can’t see Trump or Biden doing much cantering either 😛

    Mayor Pete broke the record for the fastest time from Iowa to Wall Street apparently.

  19. “Hey Firefox, I enjoy your posts very much. But what’s your secret?”

    ***

    Thanks 🙂 Hehe I’m not sure there’s any secret. I’ve been jumped on and insulted plenty of times too.

  20. Bellwether:

    Hey Firefox, I enjoy your posts very much. But what’s your secret? You can post something I imagine the more conservative Bludgers would find quite provocative and it goes straight through to the keeper. I make an effort to make a fairly mild, reasonable and considered opinion on, say, the deficiencies of the Iowa count and I get jumped on, even insulted. Any tips?

    Firefox has been around (as in posting) for a while, so they’ve probably given up trying to scare him/her off.

    Just ignore them. I think most people do.

  21. Mr. Newbie

    It’s amusing above all. I’m afraid it’s just ingrained human behaviour to fire off according to one’s own prejudices before fully listening to and understanding another’s point of view.

  22. So I’m weary of all these claims, no matter how delicately phrased, that the DNC (or some other tentacle of the Establishment) is somehow up to no-good. Nope, it’s all just incompetence.

    I mean, what exactly was the cunning Establishment plan supposed to be here?

    1. Engineer a screw-up and delayed count of results.
    2. ???
    3. Profit!

    Not to mention the things changed in the way the caucuses were to be conducted that helped Bernie (and could reasonably be predicted to do so) – the collection and reporting of the statewide popular vote shares (rather than just the SDEs, as in previous years), and the addition of the satellite caucuses.

    It seems to me that, so far at least, the “Democratic Establishment” has mostly avoided putting their thumb on the scales, probably as a reaction to 2016.

  23. caf
    “It seems to me that, so far at least, the “Democratic Establishment” has mostly avoided putting their thumb on the scales, probably as a reaction to 2016.”

    Yes, there’s not much the “Democratic Establishment” can do to manipulate the primary/caucus process, even if it wanted to.

  24. Mr Newbie @ #529 Friday, February 7th, 2020 – 12:09 pm

    Bellwether:

    Hey Firefox, I enjoy your posts very much. But what’s your secret? You can post something I imagine the more conservative Bludgers would find quite provocative and it goes straight through to the keeper. I make an effort to make a fairly mild, reasonable and considered opinion on, say, the deficiencies of the Iowa count and I get jumped on, even insulted. Any tips?

    Firefox has been around (as in posting) for a while, so they’ve probably given up trying to scare him/her off.

    Just ignore them. I think most people do.

    Maybe because he doesn’t make insulting comments like this one about people whose only contact he has with them is via a blog on the internet, yet this particular person has given himself licence to constantly be demeaning to these people, unlike Firefox.

  25. So it seems they gave bragging rights to Buttigieg without addressing any of the discrepancies, most of which went in his favour.

    Many of those discrepancies could be addressed simply without the need for the “recanvassing”

    I’ve never followed American politics that closely but to an outsider watching this unfold it’s risible. It must be utterly demoralising to electors in that system.

  26. C@tmomma

    That’s classic projection from someone who called me an ‘absolute knob’ earlier today. I’ve seen countless examples of you making snide or derogatory comments at others. I mentally picked you as a trouble maker within days of jumping onboard. Why don’t you give it a rest and stop lowering the tone?

  27. @ Adrian. I’m sure we will know who won Iowa’s SDE count, in the sense there will be eventually a final one. Whether that is the ‘correct’ one is a different matter. See Bush vs Gore 2000.

    All that said, I strongly suspect that a 0.1% margin equates to a grand sum of zero delegates difference (at most 1) leaving aside all my earlier comments about the practical relevance of said delegates.

    All the histrionics are over bragging rights, and a lot of those histrionics implicitly assume that just ‘winning’ matters and not the margin.

  28. Just looking through the polling Dem v Trump and there’s very little between Sanders and Biden on who would do best against a Trump in the purple states (Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Arizona).

  29. Bellwether @ #526 Friday, February 7th, 2020 – 11:52 am

    Firefox @ #524 Friday, February 7th, 2020 – 11:51 am

    “I don’t think Bernie Sanders would be able to canter between the front door and the back door.”

    ***

    Probably not. But thankfully he’s not trying out for the Olympic 100m sprint lol.

    Besides, I can’t see Trump or Biden doing much cantering either 😛

    Mayor Pete broke the record for the fastest time from Iowa to Wall Street apparently.

    He’s also faced up to bullets and IEDs in Afghanistan. I suppose, in your tiny mind, that’s a problem for him too.

    Bellwether @ #539 Friday, February 7th, 2020 – 5:28 pm

    C@tmomma

    That’s classic projection from someone who called me an ‘absolute knob’ earlier today. I’ve seen countless examples of you making snide or derogatory comments at others. I mentally picked you as a trouble maker within days of jumping onboard. Why don’t you give it a rest and stop lowering the tone?

    I don’t take instruction from hypocrites. Maybe take your own advice? Try addressing the issue instead of going, ‘But you’re worse!’ And I don’t have a problem with 90% of the contributors to PB, nor they with me. And I’ve been contributing here for a hell of a lot longer than you. Maybe that tells you something too.

    Oh, and please don’t try the quoting without context trick, I’m awake to it. I called you ‘an absolute knob’ because that’s how YOU had behaved. And as far as ME ‘lowering the tone’? If you believe that then all I can say is that you have some very flexible standards. I haven’t called you an idiot that people generally ignore, and not even by directly addressing me but by sneering at me to someone else. Nor, have I said to you some of the idious things that have been said to me by Lars von Trier (he called me a ‘Backdoor Betty’ with no proof, and no shame, at all). And you didn’t call that out. nath has abused me numerous times, in very coarse terms. And you didn’t call that out at any time. And there are others who have said horrible things, such as when I stood up for Pegasus. And you don’t criticise them for ‘lowering the tone’.

    So, please excuse me if I ignore you. You simply do not have a credible leg to stand on.

    And I will continue to have my conversations as I see fit. Whether you like it, or not. I am only answerable to Mr Bowe. I will never be answerable to you. So you better get used to it.

  30. Simon,
    It’s not just ‘bragging rights’ coming out of Iowa but the dreaded momentum going into the next round of caucuses and primaries. Also there is historical precedent as well, to the effect that the candidate who won Iowa has gone on to be the nominee in a lot of cases.

  31. Oh dear , I’ve been too late with c@ts sedative ….. it’s starting to sound like another “black “ Friday night for poor c@t….

  32. “ Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders holds a comfortable lead before next week’s New Hampshire primary with nearly double the support of Pete Buttigieg and is favored in nearly every subgroup, according to a new Emerson College poll.

    The Vermont senator leads with 32% in the state, followed by the former South Bend, Indiana, mayor with 17%. Former Vice President Joe Biden was next with 13%, trailed by Senators Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts with 11% each. The poll was conducted from February 2-4 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-05/bernie-sanders-backed-by-one-third-of-new-hampshire-democrats-in-poll”

    This is now 3 days out of date.

    Mayor Pete is surging in New Hampshire. In the daily Emerson poll he’s gone from 13% to 17 to 21 to 23% since the Iowa caucuses. Bernie is still well ahead but he’s stuck in an oscillation of 31-32%.

    Today’s Boston Globe poll has the margin at 23 to 24% in favour of Bernie.

    Pete isn’t getting much tracking in they South … yet. But lest see what some nati0onal exposure, momentum and and increasing number of Black Caucus endorsements can bring in over the next fortnight before the Carolinas vote.

    Biden seems to be dropping like a stone.

  33. Andrew_Earlwood,
    Those Endosrements from African-American legislators and Mayors are making a big difference to Mayor Pete’s standing in the community. Plus, he has now got an African-American campaign co-chair.

    The icing on the cake would be a certain recent past-President’s endorsement. 🙂

  34. “ Those Endosrements from African-American legislators and Mayors are making a big difference to Mayor Pete’s standing in the community. Plus, he has now got an African-American campaign co-chair.

    The icing on the cake would be a certain recent past-President’s endorsement. ”

    Maybe. A long way to go before that hope becomes reality. Being a former POTUS and party elder I don’t think Obama will not endorse anyone until the outcome appears to be fairly clear.

  35. Andrew_Earlwood @ #548 Friday, February 7th, 2020 – 7:56 pm

    “ Those Endosrements from African-American legislators and Mayors are making a big difference to Mayor Pete’s standing in the community. Plus, he has now got an African-American campaign co-chair.

    The icing on the cake would be a certain recent past-President’s endorsement. ”

    Maybe. A long way to go before that hope becomes reality. Being a former POTUS party elder I don’t think Obama will not endorse anyone until the outcome appears to be fairly clear.

    Yes, and even then it’s not guaranteed, he is famously reluctant to go all-in early. Also, he won’t give an endorsement at all to the nominee if he doesn’t think they deserve it.

  36. C@tmomma @ #543 Friday, February 7th, 2020 – 7:24 pm

    Bellwether @ #526 Friday, February 7th, 2020 – 11:52 am

    Firefox @ #524 Friday, February 7th, 2020 – 11:51 am

    “I don’t think Bernie Sanders would be able to canter between the front door and the back door.”

    ***

    Probably not. But thankfully he’s not trying out for the Olympic 100m sprint lol.

    Besides, I can’t see Trump or Biden doing much cantering either 😛

    Mayor Pete broke the record for the fastest time from Iowa to Wall Street apparently.

    He’s also faced up to bullets and IEDs in Afghanistan. I suppose, in your tiny mind, that’s a problem for him too.

    Bellwether @ #539 Friday, February 7th, 2020 – 5:28 pm

    C@tmomma

    That’s classic projection from someone who called me an ‘absolute knob’ earlier today. I’ve seen countless examples of you making snide or derogatory comments at others. I mentally picked you as a trouble maker within days of jumping onboard. Why don’t you give it a rest and stop lowering the tone?

    I don’t take instruction from hypocrites. Maybe take your own advice? Try addressing the issue instead of going, ‘But you’re worse!’ And I don’t have a problem with 90% of the contributors to PB, nor they with me. And I’ve been contributing here for a hell of a lot longer than you. Maybe that tells you something too.

    Oh, and please don’t try the quoting without context trick, I’m awake to it. I called you ‘an absolute knob’ because that’s how YOU had behaved. And as far as ME ‘lowering the tone’? If you believe that then all I can say is that you have some very flexible standards. I haven’t called you an idiot that people generally ignore, and not even by directly addressing me but by sneering at me to someone else. Nor, have I said to you some of the idious things that have been said to me by Lars von Trier (he called me a ‘Backdoor Betty’ with no proof, and no shame, at all). And you didn’t call that out. nath has abused me numerous times, in very coarse terms. And you didn’t call that out at any time. And there are others who have said horrible things, such as when I stood up for Pegasus. And you don’t criticise them for ‘lowering the tone’.

    So, please excuse me if I ignore you. You simply do not have a credible leg to stand on.

    And I will continue to have my conversations as I see fit. Whether you like it, or not. I am only answerable to Mr Bowe. I will never be answerable to you. So you better get used to it.

    I’ve never come across a person as prickly and abrasive as you, not on the internet or in real life. It’s taken me over 60 years to directly encounter a character like you which is quite intriguing in a way, I guess. You say you don’t have a problem with 90% of contributors, I’d say only 90% really isn’t a great success rate. You say that you’ve been here longer than me, as if that is relevant, that is primary school antics. But I also have to say this is totally uncharted waters for me, I really have no idea what has prompted all this ill-feeling other than the fact that I haven’t cooed over Wall St. Pete. You are negatively affecting my experience here, what gives you that right? Anyway, there are others here that are very respectful and supportive which gives me plenty of encouragement.

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