The first Newspoll for the year, and the third under the new YouGov online polling regime, finds Labor opening up a 51-49 lead, after they trailed 52-48 in the poll in early December. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two to 40%, Labor up three to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation down one to 4%. Perhaps more remarkably, Scott Morrison now trails Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister by 43-39, after leading him 48-34 in the previous poll. The damage on Morrison’s personal ratings amounts to an eight point drop on approval to 37% and an eleven point rise on disapproval to 59%. Conversely, Albanese is up six on approval to 46% and down four on disapproval to 37%. The Australian’s report is here; the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1505.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The Guardian has numbers from the first Essential Research poll of the year, but they disappointingly offer nothing on voting intention. What they do provide is corroboration for Newspoll’s finding that Anthony Albanese has taken the lead over Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister, in this case at 39-36, which compares with a 44-28 lead to Morrison when Essential last asked the question in early November. We are told that Scott Morrison is up nine on disapproval to 52% and that Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% – their respective approval and disapproval ratings will have to wait for the full Essential report, which will presumably be with us later today or tomorrow. UPDATE: Morrison is down five on approval to 40%, Albanese is up two on disapproval to 30%. Full report here.
Despite everything, the poll finds 32% approving of Morrison’s handling of the bushfire crisis, which may be related to the fact that his approval rating was down only three among Coalition voters. The Guardian tells us only that 36% strongly disapproved of Morrison’s performance, to which the less strong measure of disapproval will need to be added to produce an equivalent figure for the 32% approval. Fifty-two per cent disagreed that Australia had always had bushfires like those just experienced, and 78% believe the government had been unprepared for them. Efforts to shift blame to the states do not appear to have borne fruit: Gladys Berejiklian’s handling of the bushfires scored 55% approval among New South Wales respondents, while Daniel Andrews was on 58% (these numbers would have come from small sub-samples of around 300 to 400 respondents).
The poll also offers a timely addition to the pollster’s leaders attributes series. The findings for the various attributes in this serious invariably move en bloc with the leaders’ general standing, and Morrison is accordingly down across the board. However, a clear standout is his collapse from 51% to 32% for “good in a crisis”, on which he was up 10% the last time the question was posed in October. Other unfavourable movements related in The Guardian range from a six-point increase in “out of touch with ordinary Australians“ to 62% to a 12 point drop on “visionary” to 30%.
More on all this when the full report is published. The poll was conducted online from Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1081.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHzs-mlDXMY
Bushfire Bill:
Well being homosexual was classified as a mental illness by the DSM until 1974, so…
I’m still waiting to hear a rational* reason (not singling you out, I mean from *anyone*) as to why SSM should be opposed, while “traditional” marriage should be allowed.
(*not based on bigotry, religious or otherwise)
No blocking for anyone here on my behalf.Maybe just on a different page and missed it.
Player One @ #1036 Tuesday, January 14th, 2020 – 12:49 pm
With years still until the next election that’s probably okay.
More worried about the whole “be nice” and “don’t call liars ‘liars'” things, particularly alongside the way nobody seems to be capitalizing on the Coalition’s many political failures. You don’t need policies to do that.
You know what? If I wrote here that a gay person – who had committed suicide after being unmercilessly hounded into it by a gang of anonymous twitter heros, who were informing him that his sexuality forced him to think like them, or be condemned as a hypocrite – was “a fragile snowflake” who couldn’t stand the heat (and thus, whose death presumably should not be mourned), I’d be labelled for all the epithets known to the English language.
This guy was heckled to death because he was gay, and because he was prepared to publicly stick up for his beliefs. But that wasn’t good enough. His REAL crime appears to be that he deviated from the purity and clarity with which A R sees the world, thus earning our righteous anger.
It doesn’t matter whether you’re in Soviet Russia or Nazi Germany, gay or straight, woke or still asleep: a lynch mob is still a lynch mob. Wowsers, Puritans and po-faced, holier-than-thou condemners from the left can be just as vicious and bitchin’ as a gang of skinheads kicking Jews in a back alley. Hatred blinds both sides of the equation.
RI @ #1002 Tuesday, January 14th, 2020 – 1:01 pm
And, of course, your leader, Anthony “Coal has a Future” Albanese …
https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/transcript-doorstop-interview-melbourne-friday-10-january-2020
sd
My reply to Steve777 was the very next post.
I only asked because my perception is there has been an increase in repetition of content and assumed it was due to an increase in people blocking others.
I do not block anyone, never have, never will.
Boerwar @ #1037 Tuesday, January 14th, 2020 – 1:53 pm
Someone should point out to Labor that when the government demanded “Quiet, Australians!”, they probably didn’t mean the Opposition 🙁
My view on the suicide.
1. Obviously the whole situation is very sad.
2. His views were perfectly valid. Lots of people have ideological views that do not correspond to their apparent self interest.
3. If you put yourself in the public arena you have to expect contention and conflict.
Why would need a policy to win an election here?The Liberals only had one and won.
Socrates says:
Tuesday, January 14, 2020 at 1:16 pm
RI
” Labor have a commitment to implementing the Paris agreement. This is in the platform. How this is to be done and how the politics are handled are matters that occupy the party generally and the Parliamentary party on a continuing basis.
The assertion that Labor has no policies in relation to climate change are just the empty claims of the Libs and the Greens.”
Labor had better policies on climate change last election than before, and IMO better than any other party in terms of something costed and actually deliverable. However that sets the bar pretty low. Australia ranked dead last on climate change policy in the last assessment of Paris signatories.
If you compare Australia to other countries with realistic and effective policies on reducing contributions to climate change and ,mitigating impacts, we are a loooong way from best practice. We have only talked about energy (electricity industry). Whole sectors – think agriculture, manufacturing and transport – have not even been considered yet.
1. Labor is not in office federally and is not responsible for the very poor ranking assigned to Australia, led, as it is, by the LNP.
2. It is absolutely not the case that sectors other than electricity are yet to be considered by Labor. Labor policies – especially at State levels, seeing we do not hold office nationally – have been written, agreed and adopted at the party level in relation to all the things you mention, among others. These themes are being turned in to public policy for implementation.
3. The problems we face are mainly political. Political problems require political answers. Labor is committed to finding solutions to these policy challenges that are consistent with winning and exercising power. This is not easy. Anyone who says it is easy is ignoring 100 years of Australian political history, including, in particular, our experiences over the last 25 years.
4. Most of the criticism directed at Labour is intended to shame and insult (humiliate) Labor – and by inference, to shame and insult working people – and to split Labor’s electoral plurality. This is a great boon to the LNP (who run the country most of the time) and the Greens (who utterly detest Labor). Labor’s critics are all essentially pro-Lib with respect to the possession and exercise of power. They hope for Labor to fail. And in this, they also work to procure our collective national failure.
Player One @ #1050 Tuesday, January 14th, 2020 – 2:05 pm
Sorry to quote my own post, but I’ve just re-read that last sentence – WTTE “It is inappropriate for us have a policy now just in case the government comes up with one”.
You’d think this must be a misquote, wouldn’t you? I have trouble believing anyone could really say something as stupid as that. But Albo apparently not only did – he has even put it up on his own web site! 🙁
Just one of the social imposts the ‘friends of coal’ and their supporters foist on society.
Player One @ #1069 Tuesday, January 14th, 2020 – 2:14 pm
Wow. That is very troubling indeed.
Westminster “democracy”, Part 2
“ No second independence referendum ‘while Nicola Sturgeon is First Minister or during her lifetime’, says Scottish Secretary”
———————-
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/01/12/no-second-independence-referendum-nicola-sturgeon-first-minister/
The old “both sides are as bad as each other” false-equivalence.
Bushfire Bill, I’m wondering what your reaction would be if a prominent and influential hetero Anglo male – perhaps even one you admire – made an announcement that hetero Anglo males should be vilified and banished from any country that the British colonised. Would you say nothing, and quietly allow him the right to express such views without passing comment?
One thing is for sure….Labor will not adopt election policies simply to gratify or indulge the Libs-in-green-singlets that run their slogans on social media.
Labor has a platform. It also publishes election commitments. They aren’t the same thing. Labor’s platform will shape its election undertakings. That’s intelligible even to Libs-in-green-singlets.
The only Liberal policy is and always will be:
Labor is crap and untrustworthy. Who needs anything else?
Smokocchio doesnt have to held to account on anything as he had no policies to begin with. He could try and impose anything in the next 3 years.The thing is the Libs are too lazy and devoid of ideas to come with anything meaningful policywise anyway.
Rex has only one policy.
Kill Bill, sink Labor, Kill Albo, sink Labor.
Same old Same old.
RI @ #1074 Tuesday, January 14th, 2020 – 2:18 pm
One thing is for sure ….the soldiers working for the ‘friends of coal’ cartel will continue to relentlessly attack the environmental movement.
BW
Rex might as well be a Lib/Nat in that case.
RI @ #1061 Tuesday, January 14th, 2020 – 2:18 pm
You do know what “policies” actually are, I take it? And what they are for?
Bushfire Bill @ #1052 Tuesday, January 14th, 2020 – 1:04 pm
🙄
I never expressed that presumed sentiment you’re trying to attribute to me. And I don’t know where you’re seeing all this hate and outrage you allude to, at least as far as what I’ve put goes.
Your position is that bigoted heckling is the same as all heckling. I disagree and explained why (it’s a false equivalence), and without the hyperbolic and over-emotional rhetoric (or the Godwin).
Heckling drag queens for being drag queens is a dick move in my opinion. If you do it, you should be prepared to cop some heckling back. That’s all.
What Historyintime said, basically. If you can’t take it, don’t dish it out in the first place.
Poor old Rexie from Coalition Marketing.
Condemned endlessly to attack Labor for this, that and the other.
Poor old P1
Suffering from political prey deprivation syndrome.
It is actually quite enjoyable.
We had months and months of peeps attacking Labor for policies they thought that Labor had.
It turns out that Labor did not have those policies.
Do we get months and months of abject apologies?
hoo hoo.
Now we are going to have months and months of attacking Labor for not having a policy at all!
Naughty, naughty Labor!
Meanwhile the Coalition fries the joint and gets a free pass from P1 and Rexie from Greens Marketing.
Omerta. Wink wink. Nudge nudge.
Queensland paying the price for backing coal:
The price of vegetables is expected to jump by up to 50 per cent as catastrophic bushfires destroy crops and shut down highways while growers remain under pressure from ongoing hot and dry conditions.
Key points:
James Whiteside, chief of the vegetable industry’s peak body, says the prices of “pretty well anything” will go up
The price rise will depend on the product and where that fresh food has come from
The AUSVEG chief says Queenslanders, in particular, will cop the higher prices
The vegetable industry’s peak body, AUSVEG, made the forecast, with chief executive James Whiteside warning that Queenslanders, in particular, would cop the higher prices because so much of the state’s produce came from, or through, Victoria and New South Wales.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-14/vegetable-prices-in-australia-set-to-rise-fire-drought-impact/11866038
Low infomation voters are as they are described. Pauline Hanson has a direct line to their thought patterns.
They are an irreparable by product of mis-infomation and targeted advertising. They survive by compartmentizing a small part of their brain that is not alcohol or drug effected and severely limit any signals from penetrating a shallow outer rim of instinct as displayed by Barnaby.
Stealing ya hi-lux, roast lamb will cost $100, Labor will increase taxes and close hospitals, unions are commies and therefore racists, refugees will take ya jobs, boat people carry knives, greenies cause bushfires and so on
Government is achieved by leaving the low infomation in their habitat.
Hopefully enough seemingly intelligent people support reasonable intelligent policies.
In Australia this seems a very difficult task given that the majority of low infomation people will always vote for the coalition, ths rich will protect their interests, the rest of the voters are presumably up for grabs.
Murdoch, Howard, Abbott and Fraser understood this well.
Turnbull not so well. Morrison is an accident. Albanese shows signs of comprehension.
Sorry for being so blunt.
I see that Queenslanders are about to pay the price of China, India and the US pumping out half of all CO2 emissions every year.
Not to mention the 800 million tonnes of embedded CO2 emissions imported by the UK alone.
Goll
Sometimes the truth hurts.
steve davis @ #1082 Tuesday, January 14th, 2020 – 2:25 pm
We can thank the parliamentary ‘friends of coal’ cartel and especially their hard-working soldiers in the field for this massive social impost.
One of the reasons vegies are going to be more expensive is because the spot price of irrigation water, a major input, is more expensive because of the drought which is because of global warming.
Player One
I think Sir Humphrey can answer your question about Labor’s current position on the likes of Adani.
Interesting to see Siemens CEO deciding to work on the Adani job after L/NP Senator Canavan put in his 2 cents worth.
With any progress in the Carmichael basin project, Clive Palmer rubs his hands together. That attack on Labor prior to the Federal election shows that the rich can get away with…….
Same old story:
Coalition MPs split over Scott Morrison’s apparent shift on climate policy
Moderate Liberals seize on PM’s comments to argue the government will do more to cut emissions but conservatives push back.
@Player One and Rex Douglas.
Its not at all troubling in concept. Circumstances can change in the two years before the election. That leaves aside the distorted political culture in this country that would see journalists jumping in to tear it apart cheerily ignoring that its the Government that runs the country, and the Government that is blowing smoke on this issue. Its even less surprising right now, when the Opposition would like media scrutiny on what a shemozzle that Government have made of bushfires. Its (probably) good tactics even though I would prefer it to be otherwise.
That said, I have very little confidence that Labor will come up with a policy that is sufficient on climate change – even less as they pursue their vendetta against the Greens (begging the question as to how they implement it). Their ‘advantage’ on environment is that they won’t be as actively damaging as the coal fetishists. (and before others come in, I want to see what Labor says, not get airy assurances that it will be awesome)
Morrison changes CC policy then Dutton will be PM shortly after.
Of course when the actual impacts of the destruction caused by the ‘friends of coal’ cartel hits, you will see their soldiers out in the field furiously trying to deflect blame.
‘Player One says:
Tuesday, January 14, 2020 at 2:07 pm
Boerwar @ #1037 Tuesday, January 14th, 2020 – 1:53 pm
If you want to do something useful, I suggest you spend some time on the Coalition policies. After all, they are the Government! They decide!
Someone should point out to Labor that when the government demanded “Quiet, Australians!”, they probably didn’t mean the Opposition ‘
LOL, everything is always twisted to attacking Labor! Your absurd contortions are genuinely amusing.
If you want to do something useful, figure out a way of getting Morrison to change his mind. He is the one.
Morrison got where he is because for six years peeps just like you Killed Bill and helped sink Labor.
Having learned nothing you are doing more of the same old same old.
So, there you go: Morrison is your target.
Morrison is just another right wing puppet of Dutton and crew.
Six months of relentless attacks on Labor by the Greens were quite positive for Labor. After all, Labor’s first main task is to differentiate itself from the Greens.
Labor plus 3 per cent.
Greens within the MOE.
Keep it up, guys, you’re doing good…
Steve777:
This is not correct, there are “schemes” around whereby a marginal small business (“self-employed”) can subsidise itself (using FCs) so as to render an unviable business apparently viable, on a ongoing basis. Robert Gottliebsen originally reported on the issue in this context, and it seems likely (though I do not know it) that Mr Gottliebsen’s company marketed such schemes. Finally one of the “small businesspeople” adduced by Mr Wilson in support of his campaign was using one of these schemes. It used to be a bit embarrassing to be running a business that is mendicant on the Government, but today that’s regarding a a great achievement. That needs to change.
steve davis
Scrott has not changed at all apart from the choice of weasel words. I liked this from Greg Jericho who dismisses journos claims that Scrott is shifting position on climate change action.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2020/jan/14/the-government-has-been-forced-to-talk-about-climate-change-so-its-taking-a-subtle-and-sinister-approach
Pegasus @2:07PM & steve davis (re flags). Thank you.
If you ever want an idea of just how disengaged the average Aussie voter can be, I’d recommend watching this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGJi2v56ajs&t=19m17s
And just in case you thought this was a modern development: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3IaxhDZbGk
So long as Morrison can keep the Coalition and Right-Wing populist voters onside, I don’t believe there will be a leadership challenge. This because despite the poor approval and preferred Prime Minister ratings, the Coalition’s primary vote is still pretty respectable and Morrison’s approval rating among Coalition voters is nearly 80%. Also, both Labor and the Greens vote have only increased within the margin of error, although Labor’s increase has been just slightly over that.
My advice to Labor is to adopt a Green New Deal’ type policy, which would carbonize the economy, funded by Modern Monetary Theory. Especially given Malcolm Turnbull is now advocating such policies, then I can’t see why Labor can’t do it.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/14/the-biggest-poll-surprise-is-that-scott-morrisons-popularity-hasnt-taken-an-even-bigger-hit
Anyway, I see today’s installment of Idiots VS. Arseholes (I’ll leave it to others to decide who is who) is in full swing, so I think I’ll be leaving now.
Smokocchio will just say the people endorsed that policy in May and there will be no change,and to an extent this is true.
BB
I don’t think most people heckling him knew he was gay. Not that it should matter either way. It may not have been the heckling that tipped him over; it might have been that the LNP didn’t back him (correctly) and his dream was a future in politics.
Yeah, but he wasn’t condemning homosexual people. He was protesting against drag queens being involved with kids.
It’s perfectly acceptable to me that a gay man can reasonably and rationally separate the three issues of “same sex marriage”, “the role of drag queens in educating our children”, and “homophobia”.
Surely you’re not arguing that if you’re gay you MUST therefore be in favour of gay marriage? Or that you automatically approve of drag queens associating with kids? I don’t see the automatic connection, myself.
As for A R, he says that if you’re gay and you heckle people, it’s only OK if you’re a member of the A R Approved™✓ subset of gayness. Drift outside that narrow world too far and your suicide is your own problem. No biggy. He got what he deserved.
We have the descriptor “LGBTQI-etc.” for a reason. Presumably because for every two colours in the sexual-preference rainbow, there is one in-between them. I’m heterosexual, and even I can understand it’s feasible that a person could be gay, anti-SSM and disapproving of drag queens associating with kids.
So why do the champions of gayness, freedom and choice lump everyone into the same bucket of belief (theirs, as it happens… funny that)?
Simon
‘That said, I have very little confidence that Labor will come up with a policy that is sufficient on climate change – even less as they pursue their vendetta against the Greens (begging the question as to how they implement it). Their ‘advantage’ on environment is that they won’t be as actively damaging as the coal fetishists. (and before others come in, I want to see what Labor says, not get airy assurances that it will be awesome)’
Oh, right. You’re assuming Labor’s policy is going to be ‘insufficient’ without having seen it, but you’re not going to make a judgement until you see what Labor actually says??
I think you’ve made your decision already.
I personally believe Wilson Gavin was subjected to peer pressure from other members of the UQ Liberal National club, to participate of the heckling at that drag queen story-time event. I suspect afterwards Gavin felt so much guilt that he killed himself.