Essential Research: that was the year that was

One last hurrah for 2019 from Essential Research finds an improvement in Anthony Albanese’s ratings, but little change for Scott Morrison.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll is out and, perhaps unsurprisingly for what will surely be its last survey for the year, it does not break its post-election habit of not publishing numbers on voting intention. What it does have is the monthly leadership ratings, which record little change for Scott Morrison (approval steady at 45%, disappoval up two to 43%) and favourable movement for Anthony Albanese (up two on approval to 39%, down six on disapproval to 28%). There is no preferred prime minister rating, but we do get evaluations on how the leaders have performed since the election: 11% say Scott Morrison has exceeded expectations, 41% that he has met them and 47% that he has fallen short of them, with Albanese’s respective ratings being 8%, 48% and 44%.

Also:

• The regular end-of-year question on for whom this has and hasn’t been a good year suggests people leaned positive about their own circumstances, albeit less so than last year; that it was a much better year for the government, which is hard to argue with on a purely political level; that it was a bad yet still much better year for “Australian politics in general”, the improvement presumably relating to the lack of a prime ministerial leadership coup; and that things were unambiguously positive only for large companies and the Australian cricket team.

• After two years of legalised same-sex marriage, 47% say it has had a positive impact, 15% negative and 38% neither.

• There remains negative sentiment towards unions, whom 49% say have too much power compared with 37% who disagreed. Fully 68% thought union officials should be disqualified merely for breaching administrative laws, with only 18% in disagreement, while 51% thought unions should be disqualified for taking unprotected industrial election, with 32% disagreeing. However, 62% agreed the government was “more concerned about the actions of union officials than the CEO’s of banks and other corporations”.

• Thirty-five per cent thought Scott Morrison should have stood Angus Taylor down from cabinet with 17% supporting his position, while 48% conceded they had not been following the issue.

• There was overwhelming support for the establishment of a federal ICAC, at 75% with only 8% opposed.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1035 respondents drawn from an online panel.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,940 comments on “Essential Research: that was the year that was”

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  2. Andrew Earlwood.

    The official cannon is for a metro south to the airport, then Kogarah and Miranda.

    My take on that is it would be far better for that line to go to Sutherland and then take over the Cronulla branch.

    It gives a cross platform interchange and a much faster connection to the CBD for south coast line users.

    It takes 20+ minutes off all journeys to the Sutherland Shire.

    It takes the Cronulla branch out of T4 and it allows total isolation of the south coast and eastern suburbs-hurstville lines.

    It means a higher frequency service to all those neglected stations between Sutherland and Hurstville.

    So city – zetland – roseberry – domestic – international – kogarah – sutherland – all to cronulla

  3. So, Albo comes straight out of the blocks with take your nuclear and piss off. Good on him. 🙂

    P1 comes out with “but he doesn’t go far enough”.

    Now i know and like Greens people who are quite reasonable, actually have a basic understanding of politics and, are the sort of people you can work with and deserve respect. They come at things with a slightly different perspective but that’s good..

    P1, Peg ……….. represent the dregs of the mythical fauna at the bottom of the garden ……….and their snide carping (and really pretty predictable and boring) attitude to anything from the ALP not pure and copying green policy is a genuine impediment to any kind of actual action on Climate Change.

    But then, its probably comforting for green dregs that by opposing the ALP at all times, (so tacitly supporting the LNP) they keep them selves away from any actual influence and don’t have to take actual responsibility for anything.

  4. C@t I’ve wandered Chicago at night. The el is fugly. Try getting near the waterfront on foot.

    Felt good blowing the place up on Avengers

  6. Guytaur in a lot of places its actually cheaper to build a tunnel than spend tens of millions or more per km disrupting whats on the surface. Yes, really.

  7. “Or Chicago. Who wants to live like this:”

    I seem to remember some people here were against tunnels running through some East coast national Park for high speed rail.

    Elevated rail can have issues, but aesthetics is a very middle class preoccupation.

  8. Blobbit see above.

    One of my friends was a senior engineer on the Melbourne level crossing removal project. I asked him once about a specific line “wouldn’t this be cheaper if you simply built a whole new line underground?”. He conceded yes but they were already locked into the viaduct solution before he got there.

  9. Someone likes us, anyway (Oz slang “anyroad”).

    Dr Naomi Wolf
    @naomirwolf
    · 3h
    May I say that this all has led me to to adore even more intensely, Australian slang, which I don’t even understand. “Carrying on like a pork chop” “chookbucket” “rort” and “dill”. Honestly you are the funniest people on earth, one of the reasons I am such a big fan.

  10. Blobbit..

    If you’re talking high speed rail between Hornsby and Ourimbah then tunneling is going to cheaper and less risky. The alternative involves some pretty serious high bridges. And yeah the surface route is very environmentally damaging.

  12. The Sydney Tram network in 1947 – map near the top.

    http://www.tundria.com/trams/AUS/Sydney-1947.shtml

    It pretty much covered all areas South of the Harbour within about 10 miles of the CBD, plus areas North of the Harbour within about 6 miles of the Bridge. Quite impressive for a city of about 1.5 million (30% of the current population).

    I’m just old enough to remember going on an old Sydney tram.

  15. Blobbit @ #1757 Saturday, December 14th, 2019 – 4:07 pm

    “Or Chicago. Who wants to live like this:”

    I seem to remember some people here were against tunnels running through some East coast national Park for high speed rail.

    Elevated rail can have issues, but aesthetics is a very middle class preoccupation.

    And then Cud Chewer reassured me that there wouldn’t be any problems for the people who lived above the boring machines, as there have been elsewhere. So I moved on from my original position.

  17. lizziesay

    Someone likes us, anyway (Oz slang “anyroad”).

    Could have sworn I remember “anyroad” back in B&W TV days on Coronation St. . Alf Tatlock comes to mind 🙂

  18. imacca @ #1753 Saturday, December 14th, 2019 – 4:00 pm

    So, Albo comes straight out of the blocks with take your nuclear and piss off. Good on him. 🙂

    P1 comes out with “but he doesn’t go far enough”.

    Now i know and like Greens people who are quite reasonable, actually have a basic understanding of politics and, are the sort of people you can work with and deserve respect. They come at things with a slightly different perspective but that’s good..

    P1, Peg ……….. represent the dregs of the mythical fauna at the bottom of the garden ……….and their snide carping (and really pretty predictable and boring) attitude to anything from the ALP not pure and copying green policy is a genuine impediment to any kind of actual action on Climate Change.

    But then, its probably comforting for green dregs that by opposing the ALP at all times, (so tacitly supporting the LNP) they keep them selves away from any actual influence and don’t have to take actual responsibility for anything.

    Yes, their never ending singing of the “We’re all gonna die rag” does become tedious.

  20. Firefox says:
    Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 3:25 pm
    @Mexican

    Many seats other than Kooyong saw swings to the Greens. A good example is Kevin Rudd’s old seat of Griffith in Brisbane where the Greens picked up a large +6.67% swing.

    Yada yada yada…..for everyone 1% increase in the G vote in QLD the LNP collected 4%. The G project is an utterly abysmal failure from the viewpoint of electing reformist governments/ huge, unqualified success from the viewpoint of sustaining the LNP in power.

    The Greens are having an absolutely pernicious effect on Australian politics. They are as bad for the country as the Murdoch Press.

  21. Mavis
    In “troubled times” certainty plays a siren song. They have been living in Brexit Bullshit world 24/7 for years. Boris promised certainty. Corbyn’s Labour offered the best deal but it also meant the prospect of years more Brexit Bullshit, first da agreement and then a vote on it.

  22. C@tmomma @ #1749 Saturday, December 14th, 2019 – 3:51 pm

    It might if you put them in the order they were written and included all the other words as well.

    Honestly, GG, I knew they were the wrong way around but it made just as little sense from you whichever way I put them. I just couldn’t be bothered putting them in the right order, so I didn’t.

    And are you honestly saying, with your comment to pave the area around the mulberry bush, that you are enamoured of going round and round that much? Because I sure am not.

    Have fun chasing your tail then.

    C@tmomma @ #1749 Saturday, December 14th, 2019 – 3:51 pm

    It might if you put them in the order they were written and included all the other words as well.

    Honestly, GG, I knew they were the wrong way around but it made just as little sense from you whichever way I put them. I just couldn’t be bothered putting them in the right order, so I didn’t.

    And are you honestly saying, with your comment to pave the area around the mulberry bush, that you are enamoured of going round and round that much? Because I sure am not.

    Have fun chasing your tail then.

    I reckon you might be smart enough to realise that I wasn’t talking about me.

  23. The newspapers in Victoria are totally absorbed by the dangers of Climate Change on our existence. From today’s Herald Sun.

    SIR ELTON DOPPELGANGER REVEALED
    The identity of Point Lonsdale’s Sir Elton John look-a-like has been revealed after he was mistaken for the music superstar while enjoying an ice-cream earlier this week.

  24. UK Labour has finished with 203 seats….a very long way from the 325 or so required to form a Government. Corbyn’s legacy is a Labour Party weaker than at any time since the depths of the Great Depression. Johnson’s victory is Thatcheresque in scale. Following Thatcher’s win in 1979, the Tories ruled until 1997…18 years. Labour has been in opposition since 2010. It’s very difficult to see how they can get themselves back into a winning position anytime soon. Corbyn, Momentum….they have wrecked a once-formidable political force. So predictable. And yet seemingly not preventable. Such neglect. Such incompetence. Such incredible stupidity.

  25. I reckon you might be smart enough to realise that I wasn’t talking about me.

    I know that. However, the sentiment was just as apt wrt you.

  29. Messers Kenny and Henderson take up the cudgels on behalf of whomever in the ‘The Weekend Australian’.

    I assume that these two noted climate scientists are what is driving Mr Morrison’s policy responses to climate change.

    Hendo thinks that we are lacking a historical perspective. Fortunately he does not have to create his own strawmen. Grandstanders like Caro who throw out all sorts of emotional assertions do that for him. Having ‘sorted’ the science by thrashing Caro, Hendo turns his intellect to fire science. His strawmen here are provided by well known fire scientist, Tony Jones. Hendo disposes of the fire science debate in a line or two. There have been other big fires in the past. So there. Droughts, ditto. He quotes Santamaria, another noted climate scientist, who wrote about bad dust storms in Melbourne in 1944. So there.

    I have no doubt at all that Hendo would have come out with his science-free polemics regardless of Caro’s histrionics and Jone’s gotchas. But why gift him the strawmen? IMO, make the bastard work for his living.

  32. C@tmomma @ #1777 Saturday, December 14th, 2019 – 5:10 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1775 Saturday, December 14th, 2019 – 5:03 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1775 Saturday, December 14th, 2019 – 4:55 pm

    I reckon you might be smart enough to realise that I wasn’t talking about me.

    I know that. However, the sentiment was just as apt wrt you.

    If you say so, it must be true.

    Round and round and round we go. 🙄

    It’s your road. I think it’s called the “Catmomma Chase” !

    It’s a very desirable address.

  35. Guytaur
    The Lib Dems did okay in London and under the Australian system would have won a few more seats where they were campaigning to have no Brexit or in the case of Scotland they were overcome by a SNP surge on the back of protecting Scotland, ending austerity and protecting the NHS. The SNP ran a class envy free campaign that played to their advantages which offers a possible lesson.

  36. Mexicanbeemer @ #1785 Saturday, December 14th, 2019 – 5:26 pm

    Guytaur
    The Lib Dems did okay in London and under the Australian system would have won a few more seats but the thing to remember is they were campaigning to have no Brexit or in the case of Scotland they were overcome by a SNP surge on the back of protecting Scotland, ending austerity and protecting the NHS. The SNP ran a class envy free campaign that played to their advantages which offers a possible lesson.

    Unless you regard being Scottish as class.

  37. Mexican

    Thanks for confirming Centrism didn’t do too well.

    I agree with Poroti. It was the lie about you get certainty with the Tories that swung it.

    Plus the neglect of the leave areas. Caused by Tory cuts being blamed on the EU.

    The fight was not about class. It was nationalism. Just as it is here and in the US.

  39. Guytaur
    I didn’t confirm anything and centralism does work just ask Daniel Andrews. Being centralist means you take the best bits from each side to form policies instead of only implementing policies pleasing to one side.

  40. ‘I see RI is complaining about the Greens being effective again.

    How pernicious of them.’

    I see it is facepalm time.

    The Greens have been effective in securing themselves a base of support that is forever locked in at between 8-12% of the total population. Enough to secure 9-12 senators and the odd lower house seat here and there.

    The Greens have been effective in creating little echo chambers that are home to the likes of you.

    The Greens have been effective in working with the ACT Labor branch (yes we got that memo).

    The Green have been extremely effective in polarising the rest of the electorate against them and their causes.

    The Greens have been very successful of late in polarising ‘the others’ voter demographic right into the arms of a feckless, corrupt do-nothing LNP.

    It’s the kind of ‘effectiveness’ that progressive politics in this country (except for Canberra, bless) can well do without.

  45. Mexican

    Daniel Andrews won because he moved to the left.

    His claim. We are the most progressive state in Australia.

    That’s not moving to the centre according to the posters here who regard Bernie Sanders as radical.

  47. “ Mexican

    Centrism was the Liberal Democrats.”

    Not really. The Lib_Dems are a nostalgic relic of the Whigs.

    They operate as an anti Labour siphon. A gizmo.

  49. lizzie

    An interesting article with not a lot of new stuff in it, IMO.

    It did note that opening the South Australian lakes barrages and limiting fresh water flows in the SA lakes would cause salt water (from the sea) to move further and further up the Murray. It should have noted that land use changes in the MDB push about 2 million tons of salt into the MDB a year.
    If there is a reverse flow from the sea through the SA lakes up the Murray then putting the two salt sources together would have a bad impact.

    This does not seem to be causing Pavey and Barilaro much loss of sleep.

    The meeting on Tuesday should be interesting. Littleproud is the meat in the sandwich. I am sure that Ley will defend the MDB environment tooth and claw.

  50. The Andrews government is a textbook example of governing from the centre. Victoria is more progressive than any mainland state. By repudiating the Greens Dan was able to promulgate progressive policies to the political centre of Vitoria with scaring the horses.

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