BludgerTrack is back, sort of – you can find a permanent link on the sidebar along with a miniature version of its main attraction, namely polling trends for leader approval and preferred prime minister. These go back to the onset of Scott Morrison’s prime ministership in August last year, and thus encompass distinct Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese epochs.
As you can see, Morrison has mostly gravitated around neutral on his net rating (i.e. approval minus disapproval), barring a post-election surge that has now run its course. Shorten’s position appeared to improve during the election campaign, which was also picked up in Labor’s internal polling, though clearly not far enough. Albanese has mostly been around neutral, but as a newcomer he has a high uncommitted rating, which doesn’t come through when you reduce it to a net measure. This is how he manages to do worse than Shorten on preferred prime minister (although a narrowing trend kicked in here a few months ago) despite doing better on net approval.
I haven’t included the most recent Newspoll result at this stage, as this is clearly a distinct new series for which I will require a few more results before I can standardise it against the other polls. On the basis of this limited evidence, the new-look Newspoll’s leader rating scores can be expected to behave somewhat differently from the old. As Kevin Bonham notes, the new poll has markedly worse net ratings for both leaders, as uncommitted rates are lower and disapproval higher.
Needless to say, what’s missing in all this is voting intention, for which I am going to need a good deal more data before I reckon it worth my while. If you’re really keen though, Mark the Ballot has gone to the trouble of running a trendline through all six of the Newspoll results post-election. If nothing else, my BludgerTrack page features a “poll data” tab on which voting intention polls will be catalogued, which for the time being is wall-to-wall Newspoll. And while I have your attention, please note as per the post above that I’ve got the begging bowl out – donations gratefully received through the link at the top of the page.
poroti @ #550 Sunday, December 1st, 2019 – 6:24 pm
If considering that there are occasional problems with the actions of Israel and there are times when it’s reasonable to suggest that Palestine gets a rough deal are to be considered anti-semitic then I guess I must be anti-semitic. Let’s not forget that over the last few years Israel has had a PM, Netanyahu, who is so right-wing that he makes Morrison seem like a cuddly koala.
clem attlee @ #547 Sunday, December 1st, 2019 – 6:22 pm
The strategy is enough to help keep Corbyn out of No.10 and entrench Boris Johnson as PM. They will succeed.
Bellwether
Have you seen the documentary “The Lobby” by Al Jazeera ? Truly gobsmacking stuff. If not check it out.
Did anyone notice the article in the Telegraph today about fast rail and also the segment in Ch7 news?
How does the amount of anti-semitism in the UK Labour party compare to the amount of anti-Islamic sentiment, speech and actions in the UK Conservative party and their allies? Then throw in antipathy towards dark-skinned people, immigrants and other “foreigners”. I don’t know the answer, but I suggest that there is likely to be a major imbalance in the discussion. Why are we here (and many more inthe UK) discussing one and not the other?
The Right uses raciscm to their advantage. Not all Tories, nor a majority, are racist, but the majority of racists vote Tory
Acknowledging the existence of a pro-Israeli Government lobby is anti-semitic, or at least an anti-Semitic trope (the pro-Israeli Government discourse police add the word “trope” when even they realise that it’s a stretch to classify it as outright anti-Semitic).
It suits centrist Labour MPs and the centrist and right-wing media to portray a few hundred Facebook and Twitter posts by non-entities with next to no followers as evidence that an organisation of half a million people is inherently and structurally anti-Semitic.
Spent an interesting day in Noble Park, a Melbourne suburb on the Pakenham line. A Sydney comparator would be Auburn.
An old uni friend has married into an Indonesian family, and they were having a impromptu birthday party with friends, neighbours and family. The conversation ranged from the jobs they had or (mostly) didn’t have, the perils of separation from controlling spouses, to the community welfare approach in multicultural environments where Indians, Chinese, Sudanese, Afghanis and Rohinggas are the dominant population groups. In short, the positivity and acceptance of their lives was infectious.
Most troubling was the youngest child of one attendee who had an ‘accident’ in the Middle East. It turned out the accident was a Russian bomb falling on them, and their ISIS cohort. How do you deal with the call from a bereaved spouse on Viber? Or when the authorities come seeking information? Or when the grandparents ask about how the youngster is going?
The other notable thing about Noble Park is the space age train station – remove the ding dings? An elevated steel monstrosity probably does the job, but it is completely incongruous with the rest of the built environment of the single story suburb.
‘clem attlee says:
Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 6:22 pm
Boerwar and his ilk need to believe that Corbyn is anti Semitic because they have to have a pretext to oppose him that obscures the real cause of their resentment of him. Of course the real reason for opposing him, is the fact that Corbyn represents real progressive reform of the like that he and his knuckle dragging friends of the right cannot stomach. At heart, Boerwar is a National Party adherent, that is where he fits ideologically. Of course it would be DLP, but they are no longer a viable option.’
Some fact checks:
1. I don’t resent Corbyn.
2. The main reason I oppose Corbyn is because he has buggered up the single most important policy decision facing the UK for the first half of this century: Brexit/Remain.
3. Other than that, given a binary choice between Corbyn and Johnson I would vote for Corbyn.
4. I spent the better part of my working life working to try to address the ruinous impact of racism on Indigenous people. Apart from that, I have studied the Holocaust with considerable effort. In particular, I have studied the anti-semitism of the interwar years. If there if one thing that is clear in relation to racism generally and anti-semitism in particular, it is that words matter.
It rather distresses me that Labor/Labour peeps are refusing to accept the obvious: that British Labour has a significant problem with anti-semitism and that Corbyn’s track record in this space is questionable, at the very best.
The notion that I am only against the anti-semitism in the British Labour Party because I resent Corbyn is, therefore, free of facts.
Beyond that you might want to have a look at just why YOU are defending anti-semitism in the British Labour Party and Corbyn’s role.
5. At heart I am Labor through and through. I have never voted for the National Party and I never will. I do stuff like hand out HTVs at prepolling booths and on polling day. I accept that the Labor Party has people with different views from my own including yourself. I don’t ascribe dark motives for what they say and do.
Now that we have settled all the proximate bullshit, let’s get to taws.
Which of the following would YOU regard as being confected and/or a turgid fabrication:
1. Corbyn’s referred to Heshbollah as ‘friends’. Fact or fiction. Repeated often. Believed by many to be true.
2. Corbyn’s expressed concern about the BBC’s agenda of Israel having ‘the right to exist’. Fact or fiction. Repeated often. Believed by many to be true.
3. The membership of Facebook groups replete with posts involving anti-semitic tropes. Fact or fiction. Repeated often. Believed by many to be true.
4. The Chakrabaty Report’s findings. Fact or fiction. Repeated often. Believed by many to be true.
5. The slow and slack response to the Chakrabaty Report’s findings. Fact or fiction. Repeated often. Believed by many to be true.
6. The many hundreds of complaints about real anti-semitism.
7. The hundreds of Labour Party members expelled for anti-semitism.
‘Nicholas says:
Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 7:04 pm
Why are we here (and many more inthe UK) discussing one and not the other?
It suits centrist Labour MPs and the centrist and right-wing media to portray a few hundred Facebook and Twitter posts by non-entities with next to no followers as evidence that an organisation of half a million people is inherently and structurally anti-Semitic.’
You have so far referred to turgid fabrications and confected charges. You have in this post referred to ‘a few hundred Facebook and Twitter posts by non-entities’. You resolutely and routinely ignore the following. I assume that you do not include Corbyn as a nonentity. Peeps such as yourself and Attlee discuss this issue as if it were purely a matter of political theatre and political perception. It is time you stopped this and confronted the issues as follows:
1. Corbyn’s referred to Heshbollah as ‘friends’. Fact or fiction. Repeated often. Believed by many to be true.
2. Corbyn’s expressed concern about the BBC’s agenda of Israel having ‘the right to exist’. Fact or fiction. Repeated often. Believed by many to be true.
3. The membership of Facebook groups replete with posts involving anti-semitic tropes. Fact or fiction. Repeated often. Believed by many to be true.
4. The Chakrabaty Report’s findings. Fact or fiction. Repeated often. Believed by many to be true.
5. The slow and slack response to the Chakrabaty Report’s findings. Fact or fiction. Repeated often. Believed by many to be true.
6. The many hundreds of complaints about real anti-semitism.
7. The hundreds of Labour Party members expelled for anti-semitism.
Steve 777
There have been various attempts to avoid discussion of the British Labour Party’s problems with anti-semitism by referring to the racism, xenophobia, etc, etc, etc in the Tories.
The implication is that we should be ‘discussing’ the meta (political) story and not the substance of anti-semitism in the British Labour Party.
As if racism in the Tories and racism in British Labour are necessarily mutually exclusive!
‘Nicholas says:
Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 7:01 pm
Have you seen the documentary “The Lobby” by Al Jazeera ?
Acknowledging the existence of a pro-Israeli Government lobby is anti-semitic, or at least an anti-Semitic trope (the pro-Israeli Government discourse police add the word “trope” when even they realise that it’s a stretch to classify it as outright anti-Semitic).’
Uh huh. Did the British Labour Party talk about the pro-Israeli Government lobby? No? Well, let’s look at what they DID talk about:
1. Corbyn’s referred to Heshbollah as ‘friends’. Fact or fiction. Repeated often. Believed by many to be true.
2. Corbyn’s expressed concern about the BBC’s agenda of Israel having ‘the right to exist’. Fact or fiction. Repeated often. Believed by many to be true.
3. The membership of Facebook groups replete with posts involving anti-semitic tropes. Fact or fiction. Repeated often. Believed by many to be true.
4. The Chakrabaty Report’s findings. Fact or fiction. Repeated often. Believed by many to be true.
5. The slow and slack response to the Chakrabaty Report’s findings. Fact or fiction. Repeated often. Believed by many to be true.
6. The many hundreds of complaints about real anti-semitism.
7. The hundreds of Labour Party members expelled for anti-semitism.
I see BW cites the Labour Party acting to stop antisemitism as proof of lack of action on anti semitism.
So much for objective analysis.
There was a question in the Oz on Friday asking which three states in the US are islands. I first thought of Hawaii, then Rhode Island but the third escaped me.
‘Bellwether says:
Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 6:37 pm
poroti @ #550 Sunday, December 1st, 2019 – 6:24 pm
clem attlee
Look, just because Corbyn has been campaigning against racism for half a century does not mean he is not a racist
If considering that there are occasional problems with the actions of Israel and there are times when it’s reasonable to suggest that Palestine gets a rough deal are to be considered anti-semitic then I guess I must be anti-semitic. Let’s not forget that over the last few years Israel has had a PM, Netanyahu, who is so right-wing that he makes Morrison seem like a cuddly koala.’
It’s OK, Bellwether. It is perfectly legitimate to criticize the actions of Israel.
There a question that goes with it, though and that question is particularly relevant.
Why do you choose to prioritize the criticism of Israel over around 20 other states that have a far, far worse track than Israel when it comes to treating relatively powerless people within their grasp?
The way the LNP are carrying on about Hanson you’d think she was a member of their own party who crossed the floor to vote down the Ensuring Integrity Bill. Oh the hubris.
mh
Yep. What must really piss them off is that she is out-populisming them ahead of the Queensland state elections.
mikehilliard says:
Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 7:32 pm
The way the LNP are carrying on about Hanson you’d think she was a member of their own party who crossed the floor to vote down the Ensuring Integrity Bill. Oh the hubris.
_________________
I’m pretty sure that’s why Hanson did it. It gives her no leverage if the Government take her for granted.
Mavis
I don’t know. Neither American Somoa nor Puerto Rico are states.
Australia is an island.
So.. noone noticed?
GG
Hola! I was getting a bit concerned.
New Jersey, Boerwar.
“The way the LNP are carrying on about Hanson you’d think she was a member of their own party who crossed the floor to vote down the Ensuring Integrity Bill.”
I think that this is pretty much what the “Liberals” think. Their main objection to her is that she is stealing their voters by saying aloud what many “Liberals” think. And she was a member of the parties for many years, even being selected as a candidate.
Mavis
I thought it was a peninisula.
Rhode Island state isn’t an island. It comprises several islands and adjacent parts of the mainland.
So, two of the three US island states identified in ‘The Australian’ are not island states.
“New Jersey, Boerwar.”
New Jersey isn’t an island and Boerwar isn’t a state.
Everything I read in the Oz I deem ticketyboo.
New Jersey:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Jersey
Per capita, it has the most millionaires.
And of course, Newark, New Jersey, is best remembered for an unfortunate incident on 6 May 1937.
What was the context of that remark? Time? Place? Topic? I can see that there are periods in history, and specific topic contexts, in which it would have made sense to see Hezbollah as essential interlocutors in peace negotiations, and times when Hezbollah made overtures that could be seen as friendly, and that constituted an opportunity for advancing peace – an opportunity worth taking. I think you are striking a rather stupid “gotcha” posture, where a certain organization is evil and cannot be dealt with under any circumstances, and where a phrase can be ripped out of its context in order to smear someone. That is your MO on this blog on many issues. Your attitude reveals that your chief agenda is to win polemical points in a contest that exists only in your mind and that nobody else cares about.
Steve777:
Whatever substance you’re taking…?
Cud,
Wassup?
Andy I was just asking if anyone noticed the media about fast trains today. One article in the Telegraph and an item in the 7 news.
‘Nicholas says:
Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 8:01 pm
1. Corbyn’s referred to Heshbollah as ‘friends’. Fact or fiction.
What was the context of that remark? Time? Place? Topic? I can see that there are periods in history, and specific topic contexts, in which it would have made sense to see Hezbollah as essential interlocutors in peace negotiations, and times when Hezbollah made overtures that could be seen as friendly, and that constituted an opportunity for advancing peace – an opportunity worth taking. I think you are striking a rather stupid “gotcha” posture, where a certain organization is evil and cannot be dealt with under any circumstances, and where a phrase can be ripped out of its context in order to smear someone. That is your MO on this blog on many issues. Your attitude reveals that your chief agenda is to win polemical points in a contest that exists only in your mind and that nobody else cares about.’
What we do know is that Heshbollah (a) is anti-semitic, is (b) sponsored by Iran which has, at government levels, significant degrees of genocidal anti-semitism, is (c) is totally anti-democratic (d) treats women as second class citizens, and is (e) fully prepared to impose its solutions by force. When Corbyn called them ‘friends’ he DID know about their anti-semitism.
What he did not know was that they would go on to help Assad suppress the pro-democracy movement in Syria with extreme violence.
Regardless of the circumstances, calling Heshbollah ‘friends’ is quite gob smacking, IMO. You call this view ‘stupid’. It may surprise you that Corbyn agrees with me on this one and has publicly announced his ‘regret’ at calling Heshbollah ‘friends’.
You state: ‘That is your MO on this blog on many issues.’ You, Astrobleme and Attlee have now all indulged in some personal abuse. How this is supposed to demonstrate that anti-semitism is not a problem in the British Labour Party is beyond me.
You have all had a go at some third rate pop psychological analysis of my character. The one thing you have all failed to do is to address the details which underpin the issue of anti-semitism in the British Labour Party. BTW, ‘MO’ is, something usually ascribed to the criminal classes.
You also state: ‘Your attitude reveals that your chief agenda is to win polemical points in a contest that exists only in your mind and that nobody else cares about.’
My attitude is that I get pissed off that people who don’t take anti-semitism seriously. If you have difficulty coping with that part of my attitude, tant pis.
Your notions that the issue of anti-semitism in the British Labour Party ‘exists only in my mind’ and is an issue ‘that nobody else cares about’ are so utterly ludicrous that they are not worth rebutting.
Now that we have addressed all your proximate concerns, we can get back to the turgid fabrications:
1. Corbyn’s referred to Heshbollah as ‘friends’. Fact or fiction. Repeated often. Believed by many to be true.
2. Corbyn’s expressed concern about the BBC’s agenda of Israel having ‘the right to exist’. Fact or fiction. Repeated often. Believed by many to be true.
3. The membership of Facebook groups replete with posts involving anti-semitic tropes. Fact or fiction. Repeated often. Believed by many to be true.
4. The Chakrabaty Report’s findings. Fact or fiction. Repeated often. Believed by many to be true.
5. The slow and slack response to the Chakrabaty Report’s findings. Fact or fiction. Repeated often. Believed by many to be true.
6. The many hundreds of complaints about real anti-semitism.
7. The hundreds of Labour Party members expelled for anti-semitism.
With the lizard half of my brain I have been tossing around an idea for breaking through our current political log jam.
Let’s assume that Labor+Greens need to pick up a dozen regional seats to form not only a workable majority in the House but also the same in the Senate.
Let’s also assume that without both they will not be able to legislate real action on global warming.
How do we do this? ATM Labor is going backwards in the regional seats because it is tarred with the Greens brush. And the Greens brush will simply ban or destroy much of what rural and regional people regard as near and dear.
It seems to me that if the first step is to work a rapprochement with regional voters then one of the keys is not to promise to trash much of what they hold dear.
My suggestion is therefore that the Greens ditch all the policies that rub the noses of rural and regional people in the dirt.
And that the Greens run on a single issue: global warming.
Not only that but the global warming issue is framed in a way that is achievable within a real time frame. Zero/2030, for example, is a sick joke in practical terms.
The frame would be that all other priorities are lesser priorities and that they can wait: global warming matters now.
Cud,
You’ve been in people’s ears re a Parramatta hub?
Chris Bowen has rejected the Small Target myth about losing elections
If you want to listen to the source it’s the Guardian podcast with Katherine Murphy.
He makes the point. Federally Labor ran with many policies.
State NSW Labor ran with few policies.
Both lost.
He also makes the point that the tax increases attracted voters to Labor.
The comments on the freedom to discriminate bill are made here too.
Andy.. not quite.
I’ve been promoting a HSR network with a purpose built interchange station east of Parramatta (crudely speaking, Olympic Park area) and a fast rail line to connect you to the CBD and Parramatta.
Others have been pushing the idea of HSR stopping at Parramatta. There is some suggestion in the article of Metro West being used as the connecting service. This is truly the poor man’s option.
In my scheme, you arrive at the interchange station, step off the train, take one flight of escalator, step onto another train and in 6 minutes you’re in the CBD (4 minutes to Parramatta). You won’t get such a convenient interchange to Metro West and it will be slower – approximately 12 minutes from Olympic Park to the northern CBD.
Trump is going to be in England during the final fortnight of the election campaign:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/01/jeremy-corbyn-uk-military-intervention-fuelled-radicalisation
Boerwar @ #591 Sunday, December 1st, 2019 – 8:58 pm
So Boris Johnson is going to be palling around with a terrorist?
To be crystal clear.
Chris Bowen says
It really is worth listening to the podcast yourself. I got a very different impression from a factional right point of view than we get on this blog.
There must be a lot of Pommy expats in Australia judging by the fixation by a lot of contributors on this blog about the upcoming elections.
Personally I couldn’t give a shit about who runs the Pommy government. I am more concerned about what’s happening in Australia. I’ve never seen the country in a bigger mess. Morrison and his mob of incompetents have only been there for six months and the place is a complete fuck up. I hate to think what’s ahead in the next twelve months.
“Morrison and his mob of incompetents have only been there for six months and the place is a complete fuck up”
It’s been a lot longer than six months in the making.
Te UK and USA are also in a mess.
Mavis says:
Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 7:28 pm
There was a question in the Oz on Friday asking which three states in the US are islands. I first thought of Hawaii, then Rhode Island but the third escaped me.
There is only one; if you read in the oz it is probable bullshit.
Steve 777
Agree Steve. I realise that the LNP have been in control for over 6 years and have been chaotic over that whole time however in the last six months with Morrison at the helm I feel that the slide has gathered much more momentum and the current bunch of incompetents in his team have no bloody idea about running the country. If the economy does not turn around soon we are going to be in a lot of trouble.
Bulldust
UK and US elections are important since many parts of their politics eventually turn up here.
Bulldust @ #596 Sunday, December 1st, 2019 – 7:01 pm
We’re already in a lot of trouble.
And back by unpopular demand – more smoke. Sydney smells like a rubbish tip fire.
If it’s in the Australian, it must be true. The USA has three island states. Hawaii and…