UK election minus 16 days

The Conservatives maintain a large lead owing to opposition vote-splitting. Was there any politically good move for Labour on Brexit? Also featured: updates from Israel, the US and Hong Kong. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at The University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

There were seven UK national polls released last weekend. In six of these, the Conservatives held leads of ten to 13 points, while Opinium gave them a 19-point lead. The Conservative plus Brexit party vote has dropped to the mid 40’s from the high 40’s to low 50’s in most of these polls. Opinium is the outlier with a Conservative/Brexit vote of 50%. The Conservatives remain likely to win the December 12 election with a majority.

The Conservatives are being assisted by two factors. First, Brexit Party support is at just 3% in five of the seven polls. Second, the Liberal Democrats have about 15% and the Greens 3%, with Labour on 30%. In Britain’s first-past-the-post system, those who want Labour to adopt a pure Remain position are likely to deliver a Commons majority for a hard Brexit. Some Conservatives who would never vote Labour will vote for the Liberal Democrats, but most Lib Dem votes are at Labour’s expense given Labour won 40% in 2017 and the Lib Dems 7%.

The Conservative vote in six of the seven polls was 41-43%, with 47% in Opinium. With the split in the opposition, a Conservative vote below 40% is probably needed to avert a Conservative majority. The drop in the Conservative/Brexit vote has been taken partly by the Brexit party, but any further drops will impact the Conservatives directly.

On November 19, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn had their first head-to-head debate. Perhaps Labour’s campaign on the National Health Service is biting, but Corbyn reopened Remain divisions in that debate. On November 21, Labour’s manifesto was released; Labour will hope its left-wing agenda will win back some Lib Dems and Greens.

On November 22, the leaders of the Conservatives, Labour, the Lib Dems and the Scottish National Party participated in BBC Question Time, with each leader getting 30 minutes to answer questions from the public. Jo Swinson of the Lib Dems was strongly criticised for her performance, and this failure could benefit Labour. There will be a three-way debate between Johnson, Corbyn and Swinson Thursday UK time, and a seven-way debate Friday.

Why are Remainers such a problem for Labour and Corbyn?

A YouGov poll gave Johnson a net -4 rating, up two points since August. Corbyn’s net rating was -42, up 17 points. Swinson’s net rating was -18. With Leave voters, Johnson had a +50 rating, while Corbyn was at -21 with Remain voters and Swinson +9. These ratings explain why the Leave vote has consolidated behind the Conservatives, while Remainers are split.

Labour’s current Brexit policy should appeal to Remainers. Labour will negotiate a soft Brexit, then put that to a referendum against Remain. It is likely Remain would win such a referendum. Labour’s problem is much more about the process of getting to the current policy. Corbyn is a known Eurosceptic who was reluctant to move from Labour’s successful pro-Brexit 2017 policy.

Ironically, the Conservatives are likely to win the election because the socialist Corbyn was centrist on a deeply polarising issue. But as I said before, an explicitly pro-Remain Labour would have been accused of disrespecting the 2016 Brexit referendum result and being an elitist party.

Was there any way for Labour to escape its Brexit predicament? I have a very cynical suggestion. Labour needed the economic crisis of a no-deal Brexit before the election, not after. If the Conservative hard right wanted a no-deal, Labour should not have got in the way. It is likely a no-deal will effectively occur after the transition period ends in December 2020.

Election updates: Israel, the US and Hong Kong 

  • In Israel, left-leaning Blue & White leader Benny Gantz failed to form a government by the November 20 deadline. There will be a third election in a year if nobody forms a government by December 11. On November 21, right-wing PM Benjamin Netanyahu was indicted for bribery and fraud.
  • I wrote for The Conversation on November 20 that Pete Buttigieg had surged to a clear lead for the February 3 Iowa Democratic caucus.
  • At Hong Kong local elections held Sunday, pro-Democracy councillors gained control of 17 of the 18 councils, to just one council held by pro-Beijing councillors.

75 comments on “UK election minus 16 days”

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  2. Also, a YouGov poll in Wales shows a firm move to Labour.

    Welsh voting intentions (YouGov):

    Labour 38% (+9)
    Conservatives 32% (+4)
    Plaid Cymru 11% (-1)
    Liberal Democrats 9% (-3)
    Brexit Party 8% (-7)
    Greens 1% (-2)

  4. hearing anecdotes from around the hustings of staunch remainers absolutely dead set agsinst voting labour, even when its explained to them that voting for lib-dems helps elect pro-brexit tories.

    As Adrian says, leavers are rock solid behind Johnson now, while remainers seem determined to shoot themselves in the foot. For that, Swinson and lib dem HQ must share some the blame with their ‘hating Corbyn more important than stopping brexit’ attitude.

    Oh well, its not my funeral. Wait for a hard brexit and we’ll surely see a tsunami of buyers remorse. Sadly though, by then Corbyn and his socialist agenda will likely be long gone.

  5. I’m inclined to the view that a large part of the Lib Dem anti-Labour vote is due to distaste of Corbyn himself (and the party that supports him) rather than Labour’s Brexit position per se (that is, moving to a more explicit pro-remain position wouldn’t have helped them (although being more decisive about what their position is earlier may have)). Leaving aside he’s hard left, Corbyn has shown himself obsessed with settling internal scores and prone to indecision and procrastination on issues that don’t interest him (like Brexit), thus why the campaign isn’t helping him as much as last time (to date).

    Lib Dems have campaigned poorly even leaving aside they have been targeted by pretty much everybody. Swinson really needed realistic answers to both austerity and who they would support in the event of a hung parliament. Still they may pick up some targeted seats.

    All that said, 41-47% are voting conservative despite the past 9 years, and a campaign that has illustrated pretty well Johnson’s main characteristic. It looks like the UK will be getting both Brexit and the government it deserves.

  6. It would be interesting to see what the result would be if they used our preferential voting system instead.

    I wonder how many of the ex-Labour voters who are saying they have switched to the Lib Dems will actually vote that way on the day.

  7. Simon

    “It looks like the UK will be getting both Brexit and the government it deserves.”
    —–

    I better fix this. 🙂

    It looks like the UK will be getting Brexit and the government England votes for.

  8. If the UK used preferential voting, we could expect a similar overall pattern to Australia where the 2PP rarely shifts more than one or two percentage points and winning the 2PP is no guarantee of winning the election. But at least vote-splitting would be less likely to be catastrophic.

  9. “All that said, 41-47% are voting conservative despite the past 9 years”

    I don’t think the tories will get 47%, at best it will be low 40s. So thats 40-something % of the voting population, which based on last election was just under 70%. So whats that? I don’t know, something like say 30% of the UK population?

    I’d say thats pretty close to what we might term the toff population of the UK – the entitled, born into privilege population (to varying degrees of course). Overwhelmingly, these people wouldn’t have a clue about the suffering the past 9 years of austerity has inflicted. They are completely insulated by it. So why would they care about voting for more of it? Almost all these people will vote for a centre-right/centre party. A fair chunk of them would have been happy voting for Blair, the centrist neo-liberal. But obviously voting labour now is out of the question for them with socialist Corbyn at the helm.

  10. Adrian,
    Tactical voting is the key when one side of politics (the Progressive one) is split into too many parties. That’s now well understood in the UK and in fact the desperate pressure of the Conservatives to tell the Brexit party and Farage to just piss off is a bit of a brutal version of tactical voting.
    Combined, the votes of all progressive parties add up to about 53-54%. Tactical voting can exploit that advantage and achieve the common objective of defeating the Conservatives in seat-by-seat battles.

    So, the defeat of the Conservatives is quite achievable, but the winner remains uncertain at this stage. It could be Labour alone or a coalition of two progressive parties: Labour and somebody else.

  12. Alpo

    “the votes of all progressive parties add up to about 53-54%.”

    —–

    I am not sure who you include in the “progressive” party category but the LibDems are most certainly not part of it.

  13. Tory lead narrows from 18 points to 11 since last week in Kantar, a Tory favouring pollster.

    New Kantar election poll:

    Conservatives: 43% (-2)
    Labour 32% (+5)
    Liberal Democrats 14% (-2)
    SNP 4% (nc)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Brexit Party 3% (+1)
    Other <0.5% (-2)

    (21 – 25 November 2019):

  16. Very sick of the anti-lib dem sentiments on this board. I don’t really understand why? The lib dems are at least a rational centrist party whilst Comrade Corbyns labour has an extremly bizarre convoluted policy on Brexit and their pro nationalisation agenda is Marxist lunacy.

  17. Adrian touching on remain-fracturing themes i have been banging on about for ever… yes, tactical voting could limit the damage but tactical campaigning /non-competition across 100 seats was always optimal strategy for both Lab and Lib Dems.

    Both Corbyn and Swinson are lost causes. And whoever the campaign brains trust is behind each party… these guys i wouldnt hire to mow the lawn.

    Ill repeat other consequences of this electoral rout… Extremely hard to no deal brexit, yrs of stagnation, significant seperatist momentum in both Scotland and N Ireland. Awful. And yet we’ll pls choose that over Corbyn & Swinson thanks.

    How the unworthy get so blessed i dont know, first Trump now Boris

  18. krull, I think your frankly hysterical portrayal of Corbyn’s policies gives us some salient perspective vis your incredulity over the attacks against the LDs

  19. Good to see Labour settling in around 32-34% — that’s a real improvement over the month. Also good to see a few quality polls with the Conservatives at 41%. That’s quite close to the 40% mark, Adrian, where you think a minority for the Conservatives starts to be a possibility.

  20. Krull
    Very sick of the anti-lib dem sentiments on this board. I don’t really understand why? 

    labour… and their pro nationalisation agenda is Marxist lunacy.

    You answered your own question with your sneering dismissal of a legitimate potential policy solution to a real problem.

  21. New YouGov poll only has a two-pt gain for Labour from a five-pt drop for the Lib Dems and Greens.

    Westminster voting intention

    CON: 43% (+1)
    LAB: 32% (+2)
    LDEM: 13% (-3)
    BREX: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 2% (-2)

    via @YouGov, 25 – 26 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 22 Nov
    4:09 am · 27 Nov 2019

    Re Krull above, there are relatively few voters who are economically centrist/right-wing and socially liberal, but that’s where most of the media are. Far more voters are socially conservative and economically left.

    You can argue that UK Labour is too economically left, but first past the post and optional voting would hurt them if they were more centrist. As I have written previously, the economy at the moment appears to be an asset for the Tories.

  22. One could argue that the UK – and the whole of the anglosphere for that matter – has gone so far to the right economically, that any alternative suggestion thats even remotely to the left of centre is shouted down as “Marxist lunacy”.

    The reality is, Corbyn’s economic agenda is well within the mainstream in most of western Europe.

  23. Krull

    “ The lib dems are at least a rational centrist party”
    ——————-
    the Lib Dems are neither liberal nor democratic. We now have to add neither rational nor centrist. 🙂

    No matter how the Scottish people vote, the LibDems will not “allow” a referendum. (Ignoring the fact that they have fewer than half the number of SNP MPs in Westminster).

    No matter how the UK people have voted, the LibDems will ignore the results of the brexit referendum.

    The LibDems supported and help implement the vindictive social and housing policies of the previous Tory-LibDem alliance government.

    The LibDems are a collection of unprincipled pissants.

    It is most satisfying to see the media’s much boosted support for them is turning out to be a fizzer. 🙂

  27. So we are finally starting to see some evidence of the gap closing in the polls. With still just over two weeks to go, a hung Parliament cannot be ruled out if this trend continues. I have to admit, I would somewhat enjoy the sweet justice of the Conservatives falling just short, and needing to go to the DUP for support, after the terrible Brexit deal Boris Johnson agreed to. At this stage though, I’m sticking with a Conservative majority.

    I have been reading that there was a surge in voter registrations, and that there was a particular surge in those under 35 registering; with voter registration now closed, how do poling organisations in the UK handle this? Do they look at voter registration and change their sampling to account for it?

  28. Tristo

    If the SNP get 49 or 50 seats, that would be over 80% of the Scottish seats, they contest, on a clearly stated independence referendum manifesto!

    And the LD get 15 seats for the whole UK (minus NI), the unprincipled pissants will still claim they have a mandate to stamp their little feet and forbid the Scots to vote!

    Hilarious! The LibDems are like some Monty Python invention.

  29. Big A Adrian

    swamprat, this BathNESS Lib-dem person should take a trip to Canterbury and see whats happening there.
    ————-

    I am not sure to what you refer? 🙂

  30. I wonder if the election is going to be closer than the polls currently show.
    The English remainers are not flocking to the LDs ….. will they go to Labour, at least Corbyn promises another Brexit referendum.

    I also suspect young voters are becoming increasingly exasperated by the ineffectiveness of the older generations’ politics.

  31. swamprat, Im referring to the holier than thou lib-dems and their righteous “if we work together…” rhetoric in the tweet, which is code for “labour should stand down and give us a clear run at the seat”. All the while the LDs are insisting on standing a candidate in Canterbury, where a staunchly pro-remain labour member holds the seat on a margin of about 200 votes. LDs are doing this even after the original LD candidate stepped down in the interests of “working together” to stop brexit.

  32. Corbyn with the bombshell of the campaign so far. 451 pages of unredacted trade talks with the US who allegedly demand access to the NHS.

    Almost as incredible, the fact that the first 3 questions from the media pack (which i think included Laura Kunsberg, surprise surprise) was about anti-semitism.

  34. I dont think its useful to project whatever the polls say into what may or may not happen under a preferential voting system.

    A change in the voting system will change voter behaviour.

    Imagine the inverse. Should Australia adopt a first past the post system (heaven forfend) the Green vote would collapse and the bulk of it go to Labor.

  35. “economically centrist/right-wing and socially liberal, but that’s where most of the media are. ”

    ***

    Most of the media are socially liberal? Yeah, nah… Most of the media backs right wing economic policy along with varying degrees of conservative authoritarianism. Surely you’re not suggesting that the major media companies like News Corp/Sky/Fox, Ninefax, Seven, etc… are socially liberal. It’s the same in the UK too.

    Perhaps you think that media companies backing a candidate such as Clinton against an extremist like Trump makes them socially liberal? You should never confuse the mid-right with the actual left just because they aren’t far-right extremists. Being less of right-wing/conservative extremist than someone like Trump doesn’t make someone like Clinton a progressive lefty by default.

    The only major media outlet in Australia that I can think of which could be called left-wing/progressive/liberal (small l) would be the Guardian, and even they are a very moderate bordering-on-centrist version of it and still often cave in to the views of the two party establishment and their right-wing/authoritarian agenda .

    Don’t take my word for it tho…

    https://www.politicalcompass.org/uselection2016

    Or, more relevantly to your original post…

    https://www.politicalcompass.org/uk2019

    If the media were really socially liberal/progressive as you suggest, don’t you think they’d be backing politicians/parties who actually fit that description (Sanders, Corbyn, Di Natale, Aus Greens, UK Labour, etc…) rather than backing right wing authoritarians like Clinton, Johnson, Shorten, Morrison, etc…

    And no, before the Labor folks go ballistic at me lol, I’m not saying that Shorten and Morrison are the same. Morrison was to Shorten what Trump was to Clinton. My point is that being less extreme than their opponents doesn’t make Shorten/Clinton progressive lefties.

    Frankly, the real left are sick and tired of being told that right-wing conservative authoritarians represent us. This is why movements such as Corbyn’s and Sanders’ exist in the first place, and also why parties like the Aus Greens have achieved the huge growth in their support that they have over the years.

  36. Firefox: “Most of the media are socially liberal? Yeah, nah… Most of the media backs right wing economic policy ”

    thats actually what AB said – economically centrist/right wing

    The ‘socially liberal’ part consists mostly of shallow, tokenistic virtue signalling on pet topics like gay marriage, equal pay and gender diversity.

    Its worth noting also how the centrist/right wing media cynically use shallow, tokenistic virtue signalling on pet social-liberal topics to try and de-legitimise genuine socialist alternatives. Exhibit A – Corbyn the anti-semite. And to a lesser extent, the portrayal of Sanders as the old white male who can’t appeal to ethnic minorities.

  37. The pro-Remain group Best for Britain have published a new seats projection based on an MRP analysis of a large number of polling interviews – similar to the method YouGov used in 2017, and that proved to be more accurate than conventional polling results. The headline figures are:

    Conservatives 366
    Labour 199
    SNP 44
    Liberal Democrats 17
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Greens 1

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2019/11/mrp-analysis-shows-snp-on-course-for.html

    But Best for Britain claims, if 4,000 people vote tactically in the most vulnerable seats, we could get:

    Labour: 244 seats
    SNP: 52
    Lib Dems: 21
    Plaid Cymru: 4
    Greens: 1

    That leaves the Tories on 309 and denies them a majority.

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1199717360996884480

  38. I’m reading some interesting comments on social media about that survey Yougov did to get that projection… apparently you get 50 quid if you complete the whole survey – however its hundreds of questions which takes people hours to complete. Lot of people saying they received the survey but couldn’t be arsed doing it.

    a cynic might say that only a tori would have the time and opportunity to go to all the trouble of completing it?

    Then again, apparently the same survey accurately predicted the last election so…

  39. The problem with tactical voting is you have to know in advance what the result will be if you don’t vote tactically. The individual seat polling so far seems to show it’s not clear which of the non-conservative is best placed in many of them.

  41. another poll showing the gap narrowing – cons 41 (-1) labour 34 (+2) – some outfit called SavantaComRes, I’m sure someone will link the tweet…

  42. “Maybe only a non-tory who’s living hand-to-mouth would sell that much of their time for 50 quid.”

    sure – no doubt they’ll have oodles of time between multiple different minimum wage shifts, while juggling the screaming kids that the drunken dad had walked out of, while sitting (or more likely standing as there’s no seats available) for hours in the A&E waiting area…

  43. “I wonder if the election is going to be closer than the polls currently show.”

    ***

    I’m getting that feeling. But who knows. Anyone would be a fool to try and predict what will happen next with this Brexit circus. Given all the dramatic and unexpected twists in the tale that have happened up until now, anything could happen.

  45. YouGov’s MRP poll

    Tories on 359 seats, a gain of 42 on 2017,
    Labour on 211 seats, a loss of 51.
    Liberal Democrats on 13 seats, a gain of one.
    SNP on 43 seats, a gain of 8.
    Plaid Cymru on 4 seats, no change.
    Greens with 1 seat, no change.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/27/key-findings-our-mrp

    They would also take 43% of the vote in winning with a 68-seat majority – a result that would make it the party’s best performance since 1987.

  46. A good news/bad news day for Labour in the polls.

    The bad news is the YouGov seat model has a big Tory majority. That’s no surprise given the 43-32 Tory popular vote lead. The Lib Dems gain just one seat from 2017 despite a doubling in their vote share. The fieldwork for this model was over the last week, Nov 20-26.

    The good news is continued recovery for Labour’s vote share, with ComRes now showing a 7-point Tory margin. Can Labour’s NHS scare campaign drive them up further?

    Britain Elects @britainelects
    ·
    2h
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 41% (-1)
    LAB: 34% (+2)
    LDEM: 13% (-2)
    BREX: 5% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-)

    via @SavantaComRes, 25 – 26 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 21 Nov

  47. who knows firefox… even if the polls are right and the gap is narrowing – that could just be labour safe seats getting safer, while they will still lose a string of marginals.

    Labour could poll 40% and still conceivably lose 50+ seats.

    I rather suspect that Boris and his team know exactly what they need to do to win the seats they need to – and that by and large they are quietly succeeding. Corbyn, unfortunately, seems to be a more naive idealist who puts far too much trust in the public being won over purely by the merits of his manifesto. This will mostly only make the already converted even more converted.

  49. Nate Silver is sceptical of the seat model’s predictive power. If it’s Tories +11, the Tories obviously win a big majority. In 2017, the final YouGov seat model had Tories +4, while most other polls had Tories up by double digits. That’s the main reason that final seat model was good.

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1199818590532317185

    Big A, I think Labour’s vote could be more efficiently distributed than in 2017. Inner city Labour strongholds can protest vote for the LDs or Greens without risking a Tory winning, while the LDs/Greens get squeezed in the Lab/Tory marginals. Plus Corbyn isn’t being completely idealistic with his NHS scare campaign; that’s designed for swing voters.

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