The heat is on

An issues poll finds concern about climate change up since the May federal election, and national security down.

One sort-of-poll, and three items of Liberal preselection news:

• The latest results of the JWS Research True Issues survey records growing concern about the environment and climate change, which is now rated among the top five most important issues by 38% of respondents, compared with 33% in June and 31% a year ago. There is diminishing concern about immigration and border security (26%, down from 30% in June and 34% last November and defence, security and terrorism (18%, down from 20% in June and 29% a year ago). A range of measures of general optimism and perceptions of government performance produced weaker results than the June survey, which appeared to record a post-election spike in positive sentiment.

• Jim Molan will shortly return to the Senate after winning a party vote last weekend to fill the New South Wales Senate vacancy caused by Arthur Sinodinos’s resignation. Molan scored 321 votes to 260 for former state party director Richard Shields, adding a second silver medal to his collection after being shaded by Dave Sharma in Wentworth last year. This was despite Molan’s attempt to retain his seat from number four on the ticket at the May election by beseeching supporters to vote for him below the line, to the displeasure of some in the party (and still more of the Nationals, who would have been the losers if Molan had succeeded). Molan was reportedly able to secure moderate faction support due to the apprehension that he will not seek another term beyond the next election.

• The Victorian Liberal Party is embroiled in a dispute over a plan for preselection proceedings for the next federal election to start as soon as January, which has been endorsed by the party’s administrative committee but is bitterly opposed by affected federal MPs. The committee is determined not to see a repeat of the previous term, when preselections were taken out of the hands of branch members to head off a number of challenges to sitting members. Those challenges might now come to fruition, most notably a threat to Howard government veteran Kevin Andrews, whose seat of Menzies is of interest to Keith Wolahan, a barrister and former army officer. Tim Wilson in Goldstein and Russell Broadbent in Monash (formerly McMillan) have also been mentioned as potential targets. According to Rob Harris of The Age, votes in Liberal-held seats could happen as soon as late February, with marginal seats to unfold from April to August and Labor-held seats to be taken care of in October.

Matthew Denholm of The Australian ($) reports Eric Abetz and his conservative supporters believe they have seen off a threat to his position at the top of the Liberals’ Tasmanian Senate ticket, following elections for the state party’s preselection committee. Abetz’s opponents believed he should make way for rising star Jonathan Duniam to head the ticket, and for the secure second seat to go to Wendy Askew, one of the Tasmanian Liberals’ limited retinue of women MPs.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,475 comments on “The heat is on”

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  1. Nicholas @4:53 – fully agree. Labor doesn’t have a major news organisation campaigning for it but even so, it can be much smarter in its messaging. In doing this, it should anticipate the distortions and misrepresentations that its enemies will apply and have a counter-punch ready.

  2. BW

    Mundo happens to be right at the moment.

    I am hoping Labor gets its mojo back soon.
    I am no fan of the framing as Nicholas has pointed out.

    That’s the long term way to take the narrative away from the LNP.
    Hopefully the Guardian might adopt this change of framing.
    Scotland NZ and Iceland have started.

    We only need one major press gallery outlet to adopt different terms for the language to change the view of the role of government from the LNP let the market rip (Labor have never been that with its union base) to one of having human dignity at its core.

  3. simon holmes à court @simonahac
    1h
    “what i worry about for people like johnny is that the car he is driving today… will not be the car he is driving tomorrow,”
    @SenatorCash said, tossing her head in apparent horror.
    “we are going to stand by our tradies. and we are going to save their utes.”
    ***
    6 months later:

    WIRED @WIRED
    · 1h
    The #Cybertruck, Tesla’s all-new electric pickup truck, is here, and it can take a sledgehammer to the door while nary a dent. The all-electric pickup will offer up to 500 miles of range and start at $39,000. https://wired.trib.al/lOWbhd4

  4. Here’s a policy idea: whenever any public policy issue at all is raised in any context all, let’s all rage, shout and froth at the mouth. Every single time.

  5. Turns out it wasn’t the Rapture after all, just a run-of-the-mill thunderstorm, even if the sky is the wrong colour and it was accompanied by the smell of brimstone (or maybe just more smoke).

  6. BW “mundo
    Yeah. Yeah. Rant. Rave. Rage.”

    Mundo was right. At the moment Labor is letting it’s opponents dictate the terms of engagement.

    And why not a bit of strategic ranting and raving. It’s what our opponents do.

  7. SKatich
    “Will it sway one single Republican senator?”

    Some Republican senators in blue or swing states up for re-election in 2020 might be feeling a bit torn…

  8. Late to the party but…
    I’m with Kakuru. Tess of the Dirgevilles defeated me. I loved reading. But not that book.
    That book probably cost me 1st level English in the HSC.
    A few years later I found the book at the bottom of a box complete with a bookmark about 1/3 of the way through.
    I struggled with the reading a book and finding a deep and meaningful message versus reading for the sheer joy. Oh well.

  9. BW

    Labor need to be like the Democrats in the US.
    Still a party to the right of Labor
    Yet they are not accepting the framing of the right.

    It could be the winning elections as Trump desperately yells extreme socialists that want the US to be Venezuela

  10. Aqualung
    ” Tess of the Dirgevilles defeated me. I loved reading. But not that book”

    Yep, I loved reading (still do). But Tess of whatever was a plod.

    I adored Pride and Prejudice, another set text. Read it twice more since high school.

  11. Some Republican senators in blue or swing states up for re-election in 20202 might be feeling a bit torn…

    Or those not recontesting. Or those with a spine.

    They only need 3 to stop McConnell from drafting dodgy protocols for the senate trial.

    Romney? Murkowski? Collins? Alexander? Toomey even?

  12. WIRED @WIRED
    · 1h
    The #Cybertruck, Tesla’s all-new electric pickup truck, is here, and it can take a sledgehammer to the door while nary a dent. The all-electric pickup will offer up to 500 miles of range and start at $39,000. https://wired.trib.al/lOWbhd4

    Guardian has a story on the launch of the Cybertruck. There was one embarrassment when two ‘armour glass’ windows shattered when hit by a metal ball. That aside,

    Ford and GM are gearing up to challenge Tesla more directly with new offerings like the Ford Mustang Mach E electric SUV as well as electric pickups. Electric pickups and SUVs could help Ford and GM generate the significant EV sales they will need to meet tougher emission standards and EV mandates in California and other states.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/nov/22/cybertruck-tesla-unveils-the-pickup-truck-we-have-to-have

    Who will be the first tradie to buy a Cybertruck or its equivalent from other manufacturers when RHD models become available?

  13. Can’t remember too many texts from school Kakuru but I remember One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich.
    The teacher got each of us to read a few pages to the class and then discuss. It’s the most enthusiastic I had seen some of my class mates about English 🙂
    Enjoyed Ibsen.

  14. No, but it apparently does go through Fantasy Island

    Final routes never match concept ones. Roads, Rail, airports… Reality sets in as the data comes in.

    Linking Australian renewable power generation to Grids in Asia makes sense. The technology is there to do it piecemeal by island hopping (like they are doing elsewhere). I am guessing by your post that they are looking at more direct and never before attempted options first.

    I am still amazed that man walked on the moon in the 60’s. Considering long distance undersea interconnectors already exist and longer distance ones in the pipeline, the idea of linking our generators to Asia has a lot of merit.

  15. Studied Hardy at Uni. Put me on to his poetry, which I quite liked, but I didn’t like any of his books.

    Had the joy of studying Conrad – although the racism grates when I read it now! By a wonderful coincidence, it was when ‘Apocalypse Now’ hit the cinema. Watching the film having just finished ‘Heart of Darkness’ added to the experience immensely.

  16. Aqualung

    I had an interesting couple of years where, when a book was alluded to in a novel I was reading, I would seek it out. I would then look for the books alluded to in that book….

    This lead me, for whatever reason, to reading Ibsen.

  17. Boerwar @ #2012 Friday, November 22nd, 2019 – 4:38 pm

    Itza
    How do you rate her? I don’t know enough to do so.

    Oh gosh; I haven’t heard her live so any thoughts are very limited. She presents to me as a light coloratura, with a lively tone, and a very pleasant affecting stage presence. She sings at the Met, so the voice must carry. I think you said the (gorgeous old) Garnier – that would suit her much more than Bastille, which is a barn of a place.

    She’s well established, and good for her.

  18. This is the Libs’ version, of course.

    The Fair Work (Registered Organisations) Amendment (Ensuring Integrity) Bill 2019 will introduce a range of measures to ensure registered organisations work for their members and not themselves, including:

    Giving the Court powers to disqualify officials of registered organisations that don’t act in the interest of members, have a history of breaking the law or are otherwise not fit and proper to hold office in a registered organisation. Officials of law-abiding organisations will be unaffected and free to continue their good work.

    Giving the Court more flexibility to act to reconstitute dysfunctional organisations and introduce a public interest test for mergers of registered organisations.

    Cancelling the registration of an organisation where it or its officials have not acted in the interests of members, not complied with court orders, committed serious offences or have a record of law-breaking. Again, law-abiding organisations will be unaffected.

  19. Because of our clever negotiations, says Angus, everything will be better and cheaper.

    @AnodyneParadigm
    ·
    29s
    Watching tag team of .
    @mattjcan
    & .
    @AngusTaylorMP
    in @abcnews presser this afternoon spruiking #COAG energy discussions & listening to them hype up hydrogen production, from coal & gas, reminded me of The Dodgy Brothers.
    …then again, perhaps they’re the originals.

  20. This gives an idea of the number of potential customers along the route of an electrical cable between the NT and Singapore (and beyond).

    It’s a big shame that the LNP government is obviously unwilling to consider a similar cable arrangement serving SE Australia.

  21. Simon Katich @ #2074 Friday, November 22nd, 2019 – 5:52 pm

    No, but it apparently does go through Fantasy Island

    Final routes never match concept ones. Roads, Rail, airports… Reality sets in as the data comes in.

    Linking Australian renewable power generation to Grids in Asia makes sense. The technology is there to do it piecemeal by island hopping (like they are doing elsewhere). I am guessing by your post that they are looking at more direct and never before attempted options first.

    I am still amazed that man walked on the moon in the 60’s. Considering long distance undersea interconnectors already exist and longer distance ones in the pipeline, the idea of linking our generators to Asia has a lot of merit.

    Not really. For a start, look at the countries you would have to go through to get an overland route to the populous markets that might be interested in buying our electricity. Several people have looked at this project and pointed out how difficult it would be to negotiate a route through these countries, and how prone this route would be to damage of various kinds – both intentional and accidental. Remember the BassLink debacle?

    Also, think about how much cheaper it would be to just generate the power in one of those intermediate countries – or any other nearby country – and save most of the cost of the cabling.

    The business model just doesn’t stack up. We are not the only ones with wind and sun, and ours is no cheaper than anyone else’s. In fact, ours would generally be more expensive.

  22. Player One says:
    Friday, November 22, 2019 at 5:25 pm

    frednk @ #2032 Friday, November 22nd, 2019 – 4:54 pm

    The longest under water cable needed is shorter than the longest currently under construction.

    Oh? You have seen the actual proposed route then?

    The route has been discussed by competent engineers. You on the other hand post nonsense again and again and again. People point out your nonsense and you post it again.

  23. Officials of law-abiding organisations will be unaffected and free to continue their good work.

    In other words, we want puppet organisations that do exactly what we tell them.


  24. Player One says:

    Remember the BassLink debacle?

    Classic example, nonsense again. The only trouble with basslink is it hasn’t been done twice. Just unbelievable nonsense.

  25. zoomster, my father used to go to Caringbah library every second Friday. Then he’d sit in the lounge room reading. I started going with him. No idea how old I was when I started going but I was in my version of heaven.
    Good habits start with your parents I guess.
    I was mortified when the library burnt down.
    But once I found an author I liked I’d check the list of other titles in the front or back of the book and work my way through them.

  26. FredNK

    Tasmania is a working case.
    It appears to be economic.
    I assume the same applies to cables going to other countries.

    We also know where it’s possible to lay them. Permissions would be the same contenders as data and telephony cables.

  27. ‘ItzaDream says:
    Friday, November 22, 2019 at 5:55 pm

    Boerwar @ #2012 Friday, November 22nd, 2019 – 4:38 pm

    Itza
    How do you rate her? I don’t know enough to do so.

    Oh gosh; I haven’t heard her live so any thoughts are very limited. She presents to me as a light coloratura, with a lively tone, and a very pleasant affecting stage presence. She sings at the Met, so the voice must carry. I think you said the (gorgeous old) Garnier – that would suit her much more than Bastille, which is a barn of a place.

    She’s well established, and good for her’

    The Garnier audience adored her.

  28. On the car radio just heard Charles, heir to the Kingdom, Nthrn Ireland, Australia and sundry other stolen lands talking about a ten year window to revert climate change or otherwise it’s all over rover.

  29. guytaur

    Basslink has been very successful.
    It have made a lot of money. They export when power prices are high, import when it is low.
    They have generators they can turn on and off.
    They got into trouble when cable died because they had emptied their dams.
    The solution is/was redundant cables.

  30. Apologies if anyone’s already posted Albanese’s speeh but it’s here: https://queenslandlabor.us3.list-manage.com/track/click?u=bacfa2523a055120b795f492c&id=1fcda08ab4&e=07ba7acf56

    Quite an easy read. Quite a lot of rhetoric but he does seem to push lots of the right buttons.

    I’ve only had a quick read but a few things that leapt out were:
    . emphasises metallurgical coal only
    . frames high speed rail as regional areas getting access to their capital cities along the lines espoused by our PB experts.
    . seems to be a hint of a framework to justify at least medium term budget deficits to fund infrastruture spending.
    . rebalancing the returns to labour vs capital
    . long term plan for the NBN
    etc etc

    Doesn’t really have anything much about things like Newstart but there is a lot of stuff in there about jobs which, in conjunction with the infrastructure spend, could be the basis for something like a job guarantee once in office.

    Also, a lot of indications about how Labor intends to frame their policies.

    Worth taking a few minutes to read without too many preconceptions. I was more impressed than I thought I would be.

  31. ‘zoomster says:
    Friday, November 22, 2019 at 5:53 pm

    Studied Hardy at Uni. Put me on to his poetry, which I quite liked, but I didn’t like any of his books.

    Had the joy of studying Conrad – although the racism grates when I read it now! By a wonderful coincidence, it was when ‘Apocalypse Now’ hit the cinema. Watching the film having just finished ‘Heart of Darkness’ added to the experience immensely.’

    Tess, and Far From the Madding Crowd do a superb job of describing a rural way of life that was disappearing in Hardy’s time. Some of his descriptions are superb, the observations acute and are instantly recognizable to people who grew up on the land.

  32. P1
    Well, Indonesia would be first island on the trip. Populous and with terrible GHG emissions. Weather not conducive to tradition renewable energy generation. Then Malaysia and Singapore. Similar.

    As for safety of infrastructure. I think Russia has shown with gas pipelines and China is showing with other infrastructure that such things can be protected from sabotage. Natural threats are a good point that one would expect careful route decisions and engineered protections would reduce to an acceptable level.

    As for cost comparisons between renewable production here vs renewable production in the tropics…. I ask why Indonesia has less than 1% of their energy from solar and wind production?

    You might be right, maybe generation here + distrubution to there doesnt stack up against generation there. Perhaps the problem is investment, and Australia should thus invest heavily in generation in Indonesia. But I wonder if that is an even riskier investment than a cable.

    None of us here have the expertise to be making these calculations. All I argue is that the technology exists. It makes GHG emission reduction sense. It is worth investigating further and not something to be dismissed.

  33. ajm

    Thanks for the link. 🙂

    On The Drum, they’ve just had a section on protest, rebellion and revolution which I found interesting and thought that it might be worth watching for anyone who would like to ‘reform’ our political parties. To use a common expression here, “they know who they are”.

  34. Guytaur, totally agree with uninviting Morrison. He’s a rampant unapologetic homophobe, who walked out of the SSM vote, and believes we are going to burn in hell for eternity, and is never ever going to turn up. I look forward to seeing Albo.

    The police are a different matter. It’s difficult. I am appalled at the recent uncovering of police behaviour generally, up to and including the minister. The sickening footage of them killing that aboriginal boy in jail can’t be unseen. But bridges have been built between the ‘force’ and the ‘community’ and I don’t think a break coming from our side would be in anyone’s best interest. I assume any police who march are genuine, and their chiefs approve of the support shown, unless they are just two faced pricks, pretending to be woke.

    (dear diary, today I used the word woke)


  35. guytaur says:
    Friday, November 22, 2019 at 6:21 pm

    FredNK

    Hopefully the Singapore project will learn from the Basslink mistake.

    Baselink was not a mistake. There was a drought. The cable failed and it had to be fixed.
    The link still suffers from the same problem, there is no redundant link.
    To claim baselink is/was a mistake is just more P1 nonsense.

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