Call of the board: South-East Queensland

How good was Queensland? The Poll Bludger reports – you decide.

The Poll Bludger’s popular Call of the Board series, in which results for each individual electorate at the May 18 federal election are being broken down region by region, underwent a bit of a hiatus over the past month or so after a laptop theft deprived me of my collection of geospatial files. However, it now returns in fine style by reviewing the business end of the state which, once again, proved to be the crucible of the entire election. Earlier instalments covered Sydney, here and here; regional New South Wales; Melbourne; and regional Victoria.

First up, the colour-coded maps below show the pattern of the two-party swing by allocating to each polling booth a geographic catchment area through a method that was described here (click for enlarged images). The first focuses on metropolitan Brisbane, while the second zooms out to further include the seats of the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast. As was the case in Sydney and Melbourne, these maps show a clear pattern in which Labor had its best results (in swing terms) in wealthy inner urban areas (for which I will henceforth use the shorthand of the “inner urban effect”, occasionally contrasted with an “outer urban effect” that went the other way). However, they are also bluer overall, reflecting Labor’s generally poor show across Queensland (albeit not as poor in the south-east as in central Queensland).

The seat-by-seat analysis is guided by comparison of the actual results with those estimated by two alternative metrics, which are laid out in the table below (using the two-party measure for Labor). The first of these, which I employ here for the first time, is a two-party estimate based on Senate rather than House of Representatives results. This is achieved using party vote totals for the Senate and allocating Greens, One Nation and “others” preferences using the flows recorded for the House. These results are of particular value in identifying the extent to which results reflected the popularity or otherwise of the sitting member.

The other metric consists of estimates derived from a linear regression model, in which relationships were measured between booths results and a range of demographic and geographic variables. This allows for observation of the extent to which results differed from what might have been expected of a given electorate based on its demography. Such a model was previously employed in the previous Call of the Board posts for Sydney and Melbourne. However, it may be less robust on this occasion as its estimates consistently landed on the high side for Labor. I have dealt with this by applying an across-the-board adjustment to bring the overall average in line with the actual results. Results for the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast seats are not shown, owing to the difficulty involved in classifying them as metropolitan or regional (and I have found the model to be of limited value in regional electorates). The coefficients underlying the model can be viewed here.

And now to review each seat in turn:

Blair (Labor 1.2%; 6.9% swing to LNP): Shayne Neumann has held Blair since taking it from the Liberals in 2007, on the back of a favourable redistribution and Labor’s Kevin Rudd-inspired sweep across Queensland. His margins had hitherto been remarkably stable by Queensland standards, but this time he suffered a 9.8% drop in the primary vote (partly due to a more crowded field than last time), and his two-party margin compares with a previous low point of 4.2% in 2010. Nonetheless, the metrics suggest he did well to hang on: he outperformed the Senate measure, and the demographic measure was Labor’s weakest out of the six Queensland seats it actually won (largely a function of the electorate’s lack of ethnic diversity).

Bonner (LNP 7.4%; 4.0% swing to LNP): Bonner was a notionally Labor seat when it was created in 2004, and it says a lot about recent political history that they have only won it since at the high water mark of 2007. Ross Vasta has held it for the LNP for all but the one term from 2007 to 2010, and his new margin of 7.4% is easily the biggest he has yet enjoyed, the previous peak being 3.7% in 2013. Labor generally did better in swing terms around Mount Gravatt in the south-west of the electorate, for no reason immediately obvious reason.

Bowman (LNP 10.2%; 3.2% swing to LNP): Andrew Laming has held Bowman for the Liberals/LNP since it was reshaped with the creation of its northern neighbour Bonner in 2004, his closest scrape being a 64-vote winning margin with the Kevin Rudd aberration in 2007. This time he picked up a fairly typical swing of 3.2%, boosting his margin to 10.2%, a shade below his career best of 10.4% in 2013.

Brisbane (LNP 4.9%; 1.1% swing to Labor): Brisbane has been held for the Liberal National Party since a redistribution added the affluent Clayfield area in the electorate’s east in 2010, making it the only seat bearing the name of a state capital to be held by the Coalition since Adelaide went to Labor in 2004. The city end participated in the national trend to Labor in inner urban areas, but swings the other way around Clayfield and Alderley in the north-west reduced the swing to 1.1%. Trevor Evans, who has held the seat since 2016, outperformed both the Senate vote and the demographic model, his liberalism perhaps being a good fit for the electorate. Andrew Bartlett added 2.9% to the Greens primary vote in recording 22.4%, which would have been the party’s best ever result in a federal seat in Queensland had it not been surpassed in Griffith. This compared with Labor’s 24.5%, with Labor leading by 25.4% to 23.7% at the second last preference count.

Dickson (LNP 4.6%; 3.0% swing to LNP): The shared dream of Labor and GetUp! of unseating Peter Dutton hit the wall of two broader trends to the Coalition, in outer urban areas generally and Queensland specifically. However, as the map shows, there was a pronounced distinction between the affluent hills areas in the electorate’s south, which swung to Labor, and the working class suburbia of Kallangur, which went strongly the other way. Dutton’s result was well in line with the Senate vote, but actually slightly below par compared with the demographic model. It may be thought significant that One Nation struggled for air in competition with Dutton, scoring a modest 5.2%.

Fadden (LNP 14.2%; 2.9% swing to LNP): The three electorates of the Gold Coast all recorded below-average swings to the LNP, and were as always comfortably retained by the party in each case. Fadden accordingly remains secure for Stuart Robert, who had held it since 2007.

Fairfax (LNP 13.4%; 2.6% swing to LNP): The northern Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax will forever wear the ignominy of having sent Clive Palmer to parliament in 2013, but Ted O’Brien recovered the seat for the Liberal National Party when Palmer bowed out of politics all-too-temporarily in 2016, and was uneventfully re-elected this time.

Fisher (LNP 12.7%; 3.6% swing to LNP): Second term LNP member Andrew Wallace did not enjoy a noticeable sophomore surge in his Sunshine Coast seat, picking up a slightly below par swing. All told though, this was an unexceptional result.

Forde (LNP 8.6%; 8.0% swing to LNP): This seat on Brisbane’s southern fringe maintained its recent habit of disappointing Labor, comfortably returning Bert van Manen, who gained it with the 2010 backlash after one term of Labor control. Reflecting the outer urban effect, van Manen gained the biggest swing to the LNP in south-east Queensland, and was able to achieve an improvement on the primary vote despite the entry of One Nation, who polled 11.8%. His 8.6% margin easily surpassed his previous career best of 4.4% in 2013, when his opponent was Peter Beattie.

Griffith (Labor 2.9%; 1.4% swing to Labor): It’s been touch and go for Labor’s Terri Butler since she succeeded Kevin Rudd at a by-election in 2014, but this time she was a beneficiary of the inner urban effect, which helped her eke out a 1.4% swing against the statewide trend. Of particular note was a surge in support for the Greens, who were up by 6.7% to 23.7%, their strongest result ever in a Queensland federal seat. Butler’s 31.0% primary vote was well below the LNP’s 41.0%, but Greens preferences were more than sufficient to make up the difference.

Lilley (Labor 0.6%; 5.0% swing to LNP): One of the worst aspects of Labor’s thoroughly grim election night was newcomer Anika Wells’ struggle to retain Lilley upon the retirement of Wayne Swan, who himself experienced a career interruption in the seat when it was lost in the landslide of 1996. However, the metrics suggest the 5.0% swing was fuelled by the loss of Swan’s personal vote, showing barely any difference between the actual result and the Senate and demographic measures. The Labor primary vote plunged 8.1%, partly reflecting the entry of One Nation, who scored 5.3%.

Longman (LNP GAIN 3.3%; 4.1% swing to LNP): One of the two seats gained by the LNP from Labor in Queensland, together with the Townsville-based seat of Herbert (which will be covered in the next episode), Longman can be viewed two ways: in comparison with the 2016 election or the July 2018 by-election, which more than anything served as the catalyst for Malcolm Turnbull’s demise. On the former count, the 4.1% swing was broadly in line with the statewide trend, and comfortably sufficed to account for Susan Lamb’s 0.8% margin when she unseated Wyatt Roy in 2016. On the latter, the result amounted to a reversal of 7.7% in two-party terms, with victorious LNP candidate Terry Young doing 9.0% better on the primary vote than defeated by-election candidate Trevor Ruthenberg, recording 38.6%. One Nation scored 13.2%, which compared with 9.4% in 2016 and 15.9% at the by-election. Lamb actually outperformed the Senate and especially the demographic metric, suggesting a sophomore surge may have been buried within the broader outer urban effect. Despite the electorate’s demographic divide between working class Caboolture and retiree Bribie Island, the swing was consistent throughout the electorate.

McPherson (LNP 12.2%; 0.6% swing to LNP): As noted above in relation to Fadden, the results from the three Gold Coast seats did not provide good copy. McPherson produced a negligible swing in favour of LNP incumbent Karen Andrews, with both major parties slightly down on the primary vote, mostly due to the entry of One Nation with 5.9%.

Moncrieff (LNP 15.4%; 0.8% swing to LNP): The third of the Gold Coast seats was vacated with the retirement of Steve Ciobo, but the result was little different from neighbouring McPherson. On the right, a fall in the LNP primary vote roughly matched the 6.4% accounted for by the entry of One Nation; on the left, Animal Justice’s 3.9% roughly matched the drop in the Labor vote, while the Greens held steady. The collective stasis between left and right was reflected in the minor two-party swing.

Moreton (Labor 1.9%; 2.1% swing to LNP): This seat is something of an anomaly for Queensland in that it was held by the Liberals throughout the Howard years, but has since remained with Labor. This partly reflects a 1.3% shift in the redistribution before the 2007 election, at which it was gained for Labor by the current member, Graham Perrett. The swing on this occasion was slightly at the low end of the Queensland scale, thanks to the inner urban effect at the electorate’s northern end. Relatedly, it was a particularly good result for the Greens, whose primary vote improved from 12.7% to 16.8%.

Oxley (Labor 6.4%; 2.6% swing to LNP): Only Pauline Hanson’s historic win in 1996 has prevented this seat from sharing with Rankin the distinction of being the only Queensland seat to stay with Labor through recent history. Second term member Milton Dick was not seriously endangered on this occasion, his two-party margin being clipped only slightly amid modest shifts on the primary vote as compared with the 2016 result.

Petrie (LNP 8.4%; 6.8% swing to LNP): This seat maintained a bellwether record going back to 1987 by giving Labor one of its most dispiriting results of the election, which no doubt left LNP member Luke Howarth feeling vindicated in his agitation for a leadership change after the party’s poor by-election result in neighbouring Longman. Howarth strongly outperformed both the Senate and especially the demographic metrics, after also recording a favourable swing against the trend in 2016. He also managed a 3.4% improvement on the primary vote, despite facing new competition from One Nation, who polled 7.5% – exactly equal to the primary vote swing against Labor.

Rankin (Labor 6.4%; 4.9% swing to LNP): Rankin retained its status as Labor’s safest seat in Queensland, but only just: the margin was 6.44% at the second decimal place, compared with 6.39% in Oxley. Jim Chalmers copped a 7.9% hit on the primary vote in the face of new competition from One Nation (8.6%) and the United Australia Party (3.7%), while both the LNP and the Greens were up by a little under 3%. Nonetheless, Chalmers strongly outperformed both the Senate and demographic metrics. That the latter scarcely recognises Rankin as a Labor seat reflects the electorate’s large Chinese population, which at this election associated negatively with Labor support in metropolitan areas.

Ryan (LNP 6.0%; 3.0% swing to Labor): LNP newcomer Julian Simmonds was in no way threatened, but he suffered the biggest of the three swings against his party in Queensland, all of which were recorded in inner Brisbane. As well as the inner urban effect, this no doubt reflects ill-feeling arising from his preselection coup against Jane Prentice. It is tempting to imagine what might have happened if Prentice sought to press the issue by running as an independent.

ANNOUNCEMENT: If this painstakingly compiled post interested you enough that you have made it all the way through to the end, perhaps you might care to make a donation. These are gratefully received via the “become a supporter” button that appears just below, or the PressPatron button at the top of the page.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,593 comments on “Call of the board: South-East Queensland”

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  1. @Historyintime

    Labor did win the majority of the two party preferred vote in Queensland federally in 1990, along with 15 out of 24 seats in the state. That was a feat only replicated at the 1961 and 2007 elections in the post war period, I think.

  2. Tristo

    Thanks that’s interesting about 1990. Probably some overflow from state politics.

    The LNP are probably going to win the 2020 State election here and that could help Federal Labor if they, yet again, govern like dickheads as from 1996-98 and 2012-15.

  3. When I first took out life insurance (’66), most men of my age smoked. Smoking was not a question an insurer asked. They changed their tune in, from memory, the mid-’80, making it a requirement to inform the insurer if one smoked, or had started again after a period of abstinence. At the time, I gave up on numerous occasions, only to start again. I wrote around ten letters informing them thereof. Around twenty years ago, they sent me a letter advising that my smoking status was no longer relevant to them, though the annual premium has skyrocketed with advancing years – but that’s a separate issue.

  4. MB

    I think many Liberals like Frydenberg has always accepted climate change is happening but where they differ from practically everyone else that accepts it is on the question of the cause and how much of that relates to human activity.

    Is that a bit like accepting that the rate of measles infections is increasing but not being sure why and questioning how much of the increase is due to declining vaccination rates?

  5. Yeah, CO2 emissions have to be eliminated. Can be done. Will be done despite the obstructions of the denialists and the agitation for irrelevancies, stunts and distractions.

    Then we will have to find techniques to draw CO2 out of the atmosphere.

  8. At McCarty Family Farms, headquartered in sun-blasted northwest Kansas, fields rarely sit empty any more. In a drive to be more sustainable, the family dairy still grows corn, sorghum, and alfalfa, but now often sows the bare ground between harvests with wheat and daikon. The wheat gets fed to livestock. The radishes, with their penetrating roots, break up the hard-packed surface and then, instead of being harvested, are allowed to die and enrich the soil.

    Like all plants, cereal grains and root vegetables feed on carbon dioxide. In 2017, according to a third-party audit, planting cover crops on land that once sat empty helped the McCarty farms in Kansas and Nebraska pull 6,922 tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it in the soil across some 12,300 acres—as much as could have been stored by 7,300 acres of forest. Put another way: The farm soil had sucked up the emissions of more than 1,300 cars.

    “We always knew we were having a sizable impact, but to have empirical numbers of that size is inspiring to say the least,” says Ken McCarty, who runs the farms with his three brothers…

    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/01/carbon-capture-trees-atmosphere-climate-change/

  11. A carbon tax is more or less irrelevant. There is a glut of electricity generation capacity. Today, for example, the wholesale price of electricity in the national grid was zero at least for some of the time.

    Apart from that, voters have rejected a tax.

    Those that want a tax should start a party of their own and see how well they do.

  12. The great enlightenment or damage control?

    Drought Minister David Littleproud insists the federal government is acting on a major report into the prolonged dry spell which he accepts has been partly caused by man-made climate change.

    (Canberra Times headline)

  13. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/06/can-recycled-water-be-the-next-frontier-for-towns-running-out-of-drinking-water

    Interesting article, particularly on the Perth treatment scheme. Seems to me that teh Water Authority here has had some good strategic planning people in place for a while, and that the issue of recycled water did not become politicized. Yup, desal plant building was, early on, a bit politicized but the idiot RWNJobbies went very quiet on that after its proved necessary, useful and sustainable.

    In the current context of the Lib/Nat farkwits who want to build dams i not:

    “about 40% of the water for the city’s main supply scheme comes from groundwater that acts as a long-term storage for the recycled water.”

    My take on that is that using aquifers for long term storage has environmental benefits and you probably lose a lot less in evaporation compared to pumping your treated water into a dam.

    “Instead, communities have been left with the only option of waiting for rain or building desalination plants, which are roughly twice as expensive as recycling water.”

    Recycling 1/2 the cost of desal. 🙂 And, recycling as a process you can just keep going on with as a continuous process even in wet years and dumping in the aquifers, building up the “water bank”?

    Unlike QLD / Wivenhoe:

    “At capacity, the scheme can add an extra 180 million litres a day to the dam, but it has never been completely turned on and is currently in “care and maintenance mode.”

    Yup, its all too late for this drought. Nothing will get better till it actually rains. But if the Feds want to spend on infrastructure that will be desperately needed next time around, water recycling maybe something along the lines of the W.A. model would be a good investment.

    Has to be linked to rules though, that let flood events do what they are supposed to do on a floodplain and not be farke up by upstream irrigators snaffling floods onto their own properties.

  15. citizen @ #249 Sunday, October 6th, 2019 – 4:14 pm

    The US evangelicals (or most of them) continue to support Trump come hell or high water.

    The Rev. Franklin Graham did not utter the word “impeachment” as he spoke to thousands of Christians here last week, the latest stop on a long-running tour he has dubbed “Decision America” — a title with political and religious undertones.

    But evangelicals who turned out to see Graham didn’t necessarily need his warning that “our country is in trouble” in order to tap into their deep-rooted support for President Trump during an intensifying political crisis in Washington.

    “I do feel like we are, as Christians, the first line of defense for the president,” Christina Jones, 44, said before Graham took the stage. Trump is “supporting our Christian principles and trying to do his best,” she added, even as “everybody’s against him.”

    The impeachment furor is the latest test of Trump’s seemingly unbreakable bond with conservative evangelical Christians. Trump suggested this week that the peril of impeachment would only cement his ties to that voting bloc, which helped propel him into office, and supporters who have stood by him through accusations of sexual assault and infidelity see no reason to back away from a president they view as unfairly beleaguered.

    https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2019-10-05/rev-franklin-grahams-tour-spotlights-trumps-evangelical-support-amid-impeachment-threat

    And they won’t give up on him until Roe V Wade is overturned. With Jay Sekulow as their point man.

  16. Cud Chewer @ #264 Sunday, October 6th, 2019 – 5:33 pm

    C@t @ 9:26am yesterday..

    Ditto Cud Chewer

    Awww… *sniff*…

    Nice to know I’m.missed 🙂

    Yay! I’ve been thinking about you for a while now. Must’ve been heartbreaking to see ‘Congestion Busting’, ie more toll roads and a Coalition government, win over more long haul train services and a Labor federal government. 🙁

  17. William:

    Labor generally did better in swing terms around Mount Gravatt in the south-west of the electorate, for no reason immediately obvious reason.

    There’s a campus of Griffith University there.

  20. RI @ #261 Sunday, October 6th, 2019 – 5:05 pm

    A carbon tax is more or less irrelevant.

    Is that because it works?

    There is a glut of electricity generation capacity. Today, for example, the wholesale price of electricity in the national grid was zero at least for some of the time.

    That happens regularly. The two have less to do with each other than you might think. For instance, a supplier may be making money from providing ancillary services, but the power they generate as a consequence is not really necessary, so they are prepared to sell the actual power at zero cost rather than shut down and lose everything. Or, they might just be gaming the system. This is apparently quite common in our broken electricity market.

    Apart from that, voters have rejected a tax.

    Voters typically don’t want to pay any taxes. So why is it we still have them?

    Those that want a tax should start a party of their own and see how well they do.

    Or, we could persuade a clever party to actually take actions that will benefit the party, the country and the voters. Or is that too radical an idea?

  22. Greg Olear
    @gregolear
    ·
    5h
    EVOLUTION OF A TREASON DEFENSE
    The whistleblower lied.
    The whistleblower is a spy.
    The whistleblower is a Democract.
    We did it, sure, but to fight corruption.
    We do this w/ALL hostile foreign powers.
    Mike Pence was more involved than I was.
    Rick Perry made me do it.

  23. Sky News Australia
    @SkyNewsAust
    · Oct 5
    Sky News contributor Bruce Wolpe says the US president believes Australia was “part of a conspiracy” to spy on the Trump campaign in 2016 – which is “very serious” for the relationship between the two nations.

    https://bit.ly/2OiRzRf

  25. caf @ #267 Sunday, October 6th, 2019 – 5:46 pm

    William:

    Labor generally did better in swing terms around Mount Gravatt in the south-west of the electorate, for no reason immediately obvious reason.

    There’s a campus of Griffith University there.

    The Greens had the biggest swings in that part of the world

    https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-24310-6305.htm
    https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-24310-31678.htm
    https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-24310-6322.htm

  26. “imacca
    The CEO of Water Corp for the past several years, until she retired recently was an engineer.”

    She should be congratulated for getting the Perth water supply on a workable long term strategic path, and with enough actual real stuff done, tested and proven so that its very unlikely to be derailed or diverted by politics.

  29. Victoria @ #272 Sunday, October 6th, 2019 – 5:19 pm

    Greg Olear
    @gregolear
    ·
    5h
    EVOLUTION OF A TREASON DEFENSE
    The whistleblower lied.
    The whistleblower is a spy.
    The whistleblower is a Democract.
    We did it, sure, but to fight corruption.
    We do this w/ALL hostile foreign powers.
    Mike Pence was more involved than I was.
    Rick Perry made me do it.

    That all happened way too quick to be termed “evolution”. Usually with evolution you wait some time to evaluate the performance of the current iteration before moving on to the next one.

  30. Greensborough Growler @ #278 Sunday, October 6th, 2019 – 6:59 pm

    Philip Robins @ #277 Sunday, October 6th, 2019 – 6:50 pm

    Margaret Thatcher was one Tory who fought climate change.

    She was of course a scientist.

    Another drive by bullshitter arrives.

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/iron-lady-took-strong-stance-on-climate-change/

    Is there a record for how quickly you can drive people away from this blog? If so, I think you just broke it 🙁

  32. Victoria @ #272 Sunday, October 6th, 2019 – 6:19 pm

    Greg Olear
    @gregolear
    ·
    5h
    EVOLUTION OF A TREASON DEFENSE
    The whistleblower lied.
    The whistleblower is a spy.
    The whistleblower is a Democract.
    We did it, sure, but to fight corruption.
    We do this w/ALL hostile foreign powers.
    Mike Pence was more involved than I was.
    Rick Perry made me do it.

    He left out:

    ‘There is no crime’

    I’ve heard more than one Republican defender of Trump say that.

  33. Anyone who thinks they can persuade voters of the utility and other merits of a carbon tax is welcome to try. They can start by finding the 500 voters willing to join them so they can register a Party. Then they can try to dream up stunt-free ways to attract attention and win seats.

  35. Player One

    [‘Is there a record for how quickly you can drive people away from this blog? If so, I think you just broke it ‘]

    Really, it comes down to the heat of the kitchen, which you invariably do well.

  36. All those people Shorten said Labor was too close to the Greens mustn’t read PB.
    I agree with Shorten that franking credits played a part in Labor not winning.

  38. What about the Shorten interview in the Hun today! Bill and Chloe pose for a special photoshoot that covers more than half a page. Yeah, Nah, he has no leadership ambitions!

    I think News Corp will be spruiking for Bill now as a way to undermine Albo. Then if Bill gets back in they will then turn on him. Of course Bill will be taking as many glossy photoshoots as News Corp want, no matter what they said about his mum.

  39. @Davidwh

    I am not sure so about the franking dividends issue being the sole reason for Labor losing the election. I believe the lack of a clear position on the issue of Adani along with the fate of the fossil fuels industry, maybe have played an more important role.

    Because I am already seeing the first signs that the issue of climate change, starting to radicalize the electorate what Trump has done in America or Brexit has done in Britain.

  40. Labor failed to explain why, if franking credit rebates are a rort, why then exempt people on pensions but not self-funded retirees. They focused too much on the really wealthy but ignored those who were comfortable without being wealthy.

  41. Tristo I never suggested franking credits were the only reason, or even the main reason, but the issue had an impact. In parts of QLD, where Labor hoped to gain seats, they lost seats mainly due to Labor’s inconsistent position on Adani compounded by the Green convoy of stupidity.

  42. Thatcher was the Judas of climate change. You’d think Steggall would have put a bit more effort into researching her maiden speech.

  43. @Davidwh

    I don’t denying that the Franking Dividends issue did not help Labor, although you have give credit to Tim Wilson for exploiting this issue. I just think the Adani issue was a lot bigger than a lot of us realize, it is tied with in the increasing polarization on the issue of climate change. Also one’s stance on the future of the fossil fuels, is increasingly been as an identity issue. Because the #stopadani movement, is more than just a movement to stop the Adani, it is a symbol for those who believe in a whole vision of what this country should be in their eyes. That is exactly the same attitude, that Make America Great Again (MAGA) represents to those who wear MAGA hats in America.

  44. Maggie Thatcher had already destroyed the Coal Mining industry by the time that Climate Change Global Heating had became a wide concern among voters, so she didn’t have a Coal lobby to contend with.

  45. Must’ve been heartbreaking to see ‘Congestion Busting’, ie more toll roads and a Coalition government, win over more long haul train services and a Labor federal government.

    Heartbreaking on several levels C@t. Its like that old Planet of the Apes sequel where the humans find a big computer loaded with the sum of human knowledge and the apes promptly smash and burn the lot.

    Yes, I’m talking about “low information” voters.

    *spit*.

    I also lost my last cow to old age around the same time.

    I also have to live with the embarrasment of telling Albanese’s Chief of Staff to his face, two weeks before the election that the polls were rock solid.

  47. Rex Douglas:

    The Greens had the biggest swings in that part of the world

    Which is perfectly consistent both with the observed better Labor 2PP performance (which is the context here) and with the proximity to the University.

  48. It’s a pity Australia isn’t as tiny as Britain, we could destroy the coal industry too as a way of achieving our Climate Change goals. Alas, we have to take all that it represents to Australia and Australians, into account.

  49. Fossil fuels don’t have a long term future. One way or another, they will be minimally used by, say, 2170. They would run out some during the 22nd Century on any sort of business as usual scenario, were it possible for that to continue. What we need to do is bring the inevitable switch to renewables forward by 50-100 years or so.

  50. I also have to live with the embarrassment of telling Albanese’s Chief of Staff to his face, two weeks before the election that the polls were rock solid.

    You weren’t on your Pat Malone there, Cud. 😆

    Though it’s interesting to read that Bill Shorten war-gamed all 3 possibilities for an election result. He would have been a great PM.

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