Essential Research: leadership ratings, US and China, abortion law

Higher disapproval ratings for both leaders in the latest Essential poll, which also records lukewarm feelings towards the United States and cooler ones for China.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll again comes up empty on voting intention, but it does offer the pollster’s third set of leadership ratings since the election. As with Newspoll, these record a drop in Scott Morrison’s net approval rating, owing to a three point rise in disapproval to 37%, while his approval holds steady at 48%. However, Essential parts company with Newspoll in finding Anthony Albanese up on disapproval as well, by five points to 29%, with approval down one to 38%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows slightly, from 44-26 to 44-28.

Further questions suggest the public leans positive on most aspects of the “influence of the United States of America” (defence, trade, cultural and business), excepting a neutral result (42% positive, 40% negative) for influence on Australian politics. The same exercise for China finds positive results for trade, neutral results for culture and business, and negative ones for defence and politics. Asked which of the two we would most benefit from strengthening ties with, 38% of respondents favoured the US and 28% China.

The small sample of respondents from New South Wales were also asked about the proposed removal of abortion from the criminal code, which was supported by an overwhelming 71% compared with 17% opposed. The poll has a sample of 1096 and was conducted online from Thursday to Sunday.

Note also the post below this one, being the latest Brexit update from Adrian Beaumont.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,826 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings, US and China, abortion law”

  1. ‘Confessions says:
    Sunday, August 25, 2019 at 5:37 pm

    The Greens should’ve kept Burnside’s campaign local. The minute he was thrust onto the national stage, his arrogance and inexperience led him to gaffe after embarrassment for the party, to the point he had to be shoved in a closet.’

    Burnside was, in one sense, a classic Greens candidate. He simply did not realize that the gap between grandstanding without accountability on the one hand* and being held to account as a candidate was so huge.**

    *which he was used to
    **which he was not used to

  2. Someone should point out to Brazil that Australia’s north was once all rain forest and that changed when the first Australians started using fire to assist with the hunt.

  3. Emma Husar

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/speaking-out-husar-says-political-blackmail-destroyed-her-reputation-20190824-p52kbp.html

    The texts, Husar says, speaking in her first extended interview since settling a legal matter stemming from the scandal, are evidence that the whole saga began with a workplace dispute that snowballed due to political rivalries in NSW Labor and the heated atmosphere of a federal election campaign.

    Six months after Murnain sent the texts, allegations about Husar’s behaviour became a media firestorm. Looking back on it today, Husar believes that Labor abandoned her to the scandal.

    “I was hung out to dry,” she says, explaining that early in the process although some stories had been written about her in the media, the most sensational allegations had not yet been made public.

    “It was like being in an abusive relationship in some respects because I actually knew that there was going to be repercussions if I fought back, because they still had this table of allegations sitting there that were false and defamatory, that they could put out there about me.
    :::
    Husar says she did not fully understand Labor’s internal politics at the time. She did not realise that some in the state branch resented that an unaligned newcomer had been backed by a federal leader whose political base was in Victoria.
    :::
    The claims stunned her, and looking back on it she is appalled at the way Labor put it to her.

    “Where is their duty of care? You give someone this pile of allegations, this claim that I flashed my vagina at someone while there was a child in the room? You just don’t dump that on someone and then say, ‘Have a nice weekend’.”
    :::
    In the days that followed, Husar says, state Labor started pressuring her to announce that she would not recontest her seat. At first, her federal colleagues stood by her, but soon they too began to back away, she says. Shorten, who she had become close to, remained friendly, but he too would eventually join the chorus calling for her to go.

  4. Pegasus @ #1653 Sunday, August 25th, 2019 – 5:49 pm

    Emma Husar

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/speaking-out-husar-says-political-blackmail-destroyed-her-reputation-20190824-p52kbp.html

    The texts, Husar says, speaking in her first extended interview since settling a legal matter stemming from the scandal, are evidence that the whole saga began with a workplace dispute that snowballed due to political rivalries in NSW Labor and the heated atmosphere of a federal election campaign.

    Six months after Murnain sent the texts, allegations about Husar’s behaviour became a media firestorm. Looking back on it today, Husar believes that Labor abandoned her to the scandal.

    “I was hung out to dry,” she says, explaining that early in the process although some stories had been written about her in the media, the most sensational allegations had not yet been made public.

    “It was like being in an abusive relationship in some respects because I actually knew that there was going to be repercussions if I fought back, because they still had this table of allegations sitting there that were false and defamatory, that they could put out there about me.
    :::
    Husar says she did not fully understand Labor’s internal politics at the time. She did not realise that some in the state branch resented that an unaligned newcomer had been backed by a federal leader whose political base was in Victoria.
    :::
    The claims stunned her, and looking back on it she is appalled at the way Labor put it to her.

    “Where is their duty of care? You give someone this pile of allegations, this claim that I flashed my vagina at someone while there was a child in the room? You just don’t dump that on someone and then say, ‘Have a nice weekend’.”
    :::
    In the days that followed, Husar says, state Labor started pressuring her to announce that she would not recontest her seat. At first, her federal colleagues stood by her, but soon they too began to back away, she says. Shorten, who she had become close to, remained friendly, but he too would eventually join the chorus calling for her to go.

    Such a cold process that saw Emma managed out by the dark elements of NSW Labor and kicked to the kerb.

    She’d have made a strong progressive Independent member for Lindsay as she is very relatable to the everyday folk of Lindsay who also make the odd mistake along the way.

  5. ‘Mexicanbeemer says:
    Sunday, August 25, 2019 at 5:49 pm

    Someone should point out to Brazil that Australia’s north was once all rain forest and that changed when the first Australians started using fire to assist with the hunt.’

    It is hard to separate the consequences of ignition by way of lightning strikes from the consequences of ignition by way of fire farming. The continental drift to the north was important. Most of Australia’s north today would not have the rainfall to support rainforests.

  6. ‘Confessions says:
    Sunday, August 25, 2019 at 5:52 pm

    Boerwar:

    Celebrity candidates often fail to deliver when it really counts.’

    Yep.

  7. Those Greens who have a political penchant for Ms Husar are welcome to invite her to assist in their climb from their flatline of 10% to the giddy political heights of 10%.

  8. Confessions
    I doubt it. I believe he probably genuinely did not understand the full personal and political implications of his membership.

  9. Boerwar:

    Why do you think that? He staunchly defended his membership and the club until it became politically untenable, and even then appeared to be letting his membership go reluctantly.

  10. ‘Confessions says:
    Sunday, August 25, 2019 at 6:20 pm

    Boerwar:

    Why do you think that? He staunchly defended his membership and the club until it became politically untenable, and even then appeared to be letting his membership go reluctantly.’

    The process sensitized him?

  11. “Someone should point out to Brazil that Australia’s north was once all rain forest and that changed when the first Australians started using fire to assist with the hunt.”

    I wonder if this is actually true, or merely speculated? To the extent it is true, I reckon using fire to assist with the hunt was actually limited to low oil content grasslands and open woodlands (that again had trees with a low oil content). Fire in dense rainforests wouldn’t appear to be an effective hunting technique – and not one that Ive heard used in comparable rainforest indigenous communities around the globe. Using fire in southern – high oil content – woodlands seems to be too damn dangerous to undertake. In fact I reckon that most observed instances of aboriginals deliberately lighting bush fires around the time of first contact events are probably conflating hunting with acts of insurgency. Pemulway for example occupied Parramatta for several days after burning the Toongabbie crops to the ground.

  12. Boerwar:

    I kinda felt sorry for Burnside in the end. His heart was clearly in the right place, it’s just that he wasn’t well supported by the Greens and in the end hung out to dry.

  13. It’s sweet Confessions has sympathy for an old white man such as Burnside, the very demographic she often rails against.

    Kudos.

  14. 2 days of Lib-kins and Pegashit. Fuck me, what a boring site this has become.

    The simple solution is staring both Greens and Labor in the face: coalition.

    ● Labor cedes The Greens the inner city electorates.

    ● The Greens cede the rest to Labor.

    ● Fuck knows what happens with the Senate but, although none of you act like it, you’re supposed to be grown-ups. Do a deal.

    ● Both sides are to agree that a divided Left only helps the reactionaries. It is exactly what the Right want, and they get it for free with this continual shitfight: Green sanctimony on one side, Labor sentimentality on the other.

    ● Labor to loosen its ties with the unions, which (for better or worse) are observably now almost defunct; a nostalgic throwback; necessary still, but no longer as vital as they once were. The Working Class War has been won. The next war is the Middle Class War. It is a grave mistake to fight the next war with the tactics and allegiances of the last. At stake is, literally, the planet.

    ● Greens to concede that while they have made some minor electoral progress over the years with starry-eyed worshippers of faeries in the bottom of the garden, the environment has gone backwards since The Greens were a political “thing”.

    ● The Greens also to concede that every time they do a Senate vote deal with the Tories, this only reinforces the idea – already firmly implanted in Labor’s harder heads – that The Greens are an invention of the Right, put in place to right-royally fuck Labor up the arse.

    A coalition between Labor and the Greens would easily defeat the LNP Coalition at the next and probably next 10 elections (or until the LNP wises up, which is a lot of what we want, right? Both sides working towards amelioration of Global Warming, plus social justice?)

    Labor needs to admit that the glory days of The Workers’ Struggle are gone (Labor being a victim of its own success in this direction). The Greens need to admit that perfectionist posturing and intra-Left sniping only lengthen the planet’s agony.

    BOTH sides need to see that political correctness and ideological guerilla war only benefits the Establishment and the Ruling Class, who have invented the motto divide et conquero .

    Get out of your trenches and bunkers Greens and Labor, call a ceasefire, and shake hands. Realise that the real enemies are elsewhere.

  15. Re. Pell:

    A lot for the Catholic Church is at stake with his expected appeal: the most senior member of it sentenced to a custodial term. Did his legal representatives do him right? I don’t think they did, sentenced to six years, parole eligibility after 38 months. His appeal for special leave will most likely succeed and be dismissed. Pell’s, by the evidence, is a rockspider, a nasty piece of work!

  16. The one I felt sorry for was Dr Brian Owler. A neuro-surgeon of the highest ethics and skill and former president of the AMA put into Benelong with little support and Who could only succeed in a Labor Tsunami.

    His practice will suffer significantly through his association with Labor

  17. BB

    The simple solution is staring both Greens and Labor in the face: coalition.

    I argued for that here for years when I first arrived.

    Went down a treat, not.

    It’s too late.

    I have hoped the Nationals will split from the Liberals. I can dream.

  18. Boerwar
    The fire farming is said to have thinned out the bush and in turn reducing rain fall but like most things there were a number of things happening but I would assume that by losing the Amazon could impact future rain falls in Brazil.

  19. BB…the current divide works well for the Greens. They have no need to change. Rather than change they will intensify their efforts. This is to their advantage.

    Their efforts are essentially defensive. They mean they can hold their ground. Their strategy is effective and matches the resources they have, which are limited. They will not change.

  20. Hi BB.

    Sounds good, on the surface, but even if both sides were willing I disagree with your conclusion that such a coalition would actually be enough. I reckon the ‘missing voters’ in the outer rim of our major cities and regional centres are hugely against the Greens as it is and are skeptical enough about Labor’s informal ties (both real and imagined) to them and ‘the left’ more generally to keep voting LNP (either directly or via their preferences). Even in the middle suburbs there is not much love for a Greens-Labor pact of any description.

    I’m afraid that labor needs to cleanly break with the Greens, inner city identity politics and left wing causes generally to go after the missing voters in the burbs and regions. It should be prepared to lose some skin from its left flank in doing so.

  21. With Burnside and the Savage Club, that was poorly handled because it is really little more than a glorified arty fart club so he should have highlighted why he was a member instead of ditching it. It is elusive but not to the same extent as the Melbourne Club is.

  22. “The fire farming is said to have thinned out the bush and in turn reducing rain fall… ”

    This is a wild guess, at best. I think ‘fire farming’ is a likely myth outside slow burning grasslands and woodlands (i.e. the NT and northern WA, where the oil content of vegetation is extremely low and the fires are very very slow moving generally).

  23. Andrew_Earlwood
    There is probably a fair bit of speculation in such theories but apparently it played out differently depending on the locations.

  24. PvO’s Ch10 news report. Barnaby doing his usual LOOK AT ME !! isn’t so surprising.

    https://twitter.com/10NewsFirst/status/1165531385752248321

    But I disagree with Plibersek and Payne that it was inappropriate to ask the NSW Premier whether she’d have an abortion. Isn’t the point that legalised abortion should be safe and legal, and that the woman having a termination shouldn’t be exposed to criminal law in the 21st century?

    Asking Berejiklian what she’d have done with an unwanted pregnancy isn’t inappropriate so much as completely irrelevant to the debate currently before the NSW upper house. If I were Berejiklian I’d have returned fire by asking the interviewer whether he agreed with the current law that women in NSW seeking abortion should face criminal charges, and if so why, when the rest of the country has more contemporary laws.

  25. “The simple solution is staring both Greens and Labor in the face: coalition. ”

    BB….something like that could, maybe, work. There are sections of the ALP that would genuinely try to make it work if it was floated. RW unions would be a transitory problem that could be dealt with.

    The issue that i think would scupper it would be over enthusiastic feral-ness from the Greens. They are not the most politically astute people in the world in terms of actually getting into power and being able to actually do something. They would all go YAY!! …have a conference that no-one would know what they were discussing at…until they go into bitchiness and civil war…. and go into over-reach straight away.

    There would be a considerable amount of division in the ALP over it and the Coalition go straight into ALP / Greens Coalition of Evil Communists who want to take away your Utes and enforce the Horrors of Compulsory Veganism on You and your Dog!! There is an interesting campaign in that wot?? 🙂

    Just not sure that there are enough people who would genuinely try and make that work around, compared to wankers who just dont see that the left NEEDS to get into Govt FIRST..to be able to implement reasonable policy.

  26. “apparently it played out differently depending on the locations”

    The only observations that are in any way complete and therefore reliable are from from the NT and WA. Everywhere else involves partial observations by European explorers – settlers and wild speculation more generally. Nobody bothered to find out off the actual aborigines what they were doing before they were wiped out by disease, or poison, or muskets, or otherwise ‘civilised’.

  27. Pegasus wrote:

    I argued for that here for years when I first arrived.

    Went down a treat, not.

    It’s too late.

    I have hoped the Nationals will split from the Liberals. I can dream.

    Pegasus, you are a symptom of the absolute fuctardery of The Greens.

    If I had a say in picking the Labor-Greens negotiation teams, you’d be banned from all meetings. You’re a deadly combination of arrogance, innocence and stupidity.

    Briefly wrote:

    BB…the current divide works well for the Greens. They have no need to change. Rather than change they will intensify their efforts. This is to their advantage.

    You’d be declared persona non grata too.

    You only want Labor to “win”. You believe they are born to rule, when their chance to rule turns up (which it won’t, because Labor is too busy crying into its beer about Lib- kins and Green Valley). You write about Labor as if it is beyond its powers to compromise. That’s just as arrogant as Pegasus, but in the mirror direction.

  28. “I disagree with your conclusion that such a coalition would actually be enough”

    You may be right. ALP gets most Greens prefs regardless of how their “leaders” want the HTV to look. So, how much diff would it make?

    That said would make campaigning easier without the Greens working at cross purposes.

    There are probs with BB’s proposal and the Left does need to get its shit together and be more united…would be brave to take to the next election 🙂 ….. but i like brave. 🙂

  29. BB….

    I subscribe to doing whatever is necessary to further the cause of social justice, to reprieve the repression of labour and to defend the environment.

    These things matter.

    Of course, I do not believe Labor’s born to rule. On the contrary. It’s obvious that Labor win at best 1/3 of the time.

    The problem is the historical default in Australia- the Liberals win most of the time.

  30. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1683 Sunday, August 25th, 2019 – 5:13 pm

    “apparently it played out differently depending on the locations”

    The only observations that are in any way complete and therefore reliable are from from the NT and WA. Everywhere else involves partial observations by European explorers – settlers and wild speculation more generally. Nobody bothered to find out off the actual aborigines what they were doing before they were wiped out by disease, or poison, or muskets, or otherwise ‘civilised’.

    I was at a conference recently and someone from a western desert community organisation, representing the last Aboriginal community to come into contact with white ‘civilisation’ showed a graph that depicted the reduction in bushland and bushland diversity since first contact. It was devastating, and it’s only been 40 years.

  31. The only reason people are oversharing about Labor and the Greens is because Labor lost the election. If the coalition had lost the conversation would be very different, and nobody would be proposing a coalition of Labor/Greens. I assume this is just one of those stages of grief people need to go through to work through their issues. Whatever.

    The next election is not a foregone conclusion of a Scotty win, as has been declared by sections of the News ltd commentariat, and Greens PBers.

  32. A_E, the whole point of a Labor-Greens coalition is there will be no Labor, and no Greens.

    Now, if you can’t get used to this idea, then the only ones who suffer will be your family, and their families.

    If you are prepared to sacrifice the future over a once glorious (but now obsolete) past, and a handful of words and hurt feelings, then you’d be off the list too.

    It will need do’ers, not nostalgics, not dreamers, and not haters.

  33. BB

    Your enormous ego was pricked when I recently agreed with a post made by psyclaw (?) in response to one ofyour rants with “Well said”.

    You really need to move on and get over it.

    But you will not and will continue to fulminate and regale PB with your brilliant insights and character assessments of me.

    I do appreciate your interest.

  34. The coalition discussion ignores the visceral hatred a large proportion of the electorate has for the Greens. I suspect it would result in the Left getting to a base level. On the evidence of the 2011 NSW State election this is about a 35% PV

  35. re Labor and Greens forming a coalition to defeat the Coalition. In the UK there is discussion that the LibDems and Labor should unite to defeat the Conservatives and stop Brexit

    re Pell. According to lawyers . . . . . The High Court only reviews matters of legal process and on the 6 counts of legal process Ferguson, Weinberg and Maxwell were unanimous. Weinberg dissented on the plausibility of the witness and the High Court doesn’t rejudge witness testimony.
    Pell’s supporters can whinge and wine but the High Court is not going to review the judgement unless it is under the sway of Catholic church

  36. OC

    “The coalition discussion ignores the visceral hatred a large proportion of the electorate has for the Greens.”

    Ably fostered by the political duopoly since 1992.

    They reap what they sow.

    Rather ironic really for Labor.

  37. Asking Berijiklian whether she has had an abortion is as confronting as asking her has she done crack cocaine.

    The smart answer (after the event) was to ask Ben Fordham if he had ever masterbated or politely answer why should NSW women face criminal charges for a medical procedure that is legal in other parts of Australia

  38. BB

    Your enormous ego was pricked when I recently agreed with a post made by psyclaw (?) in response to one ofyour rants with “Well said”.

    Pegasus, I normally never get more than one or two sentences into any of your posts, except for today when I have ever-so-slightly more than skimmed what you have written. To be truthful, I don’t give a flying fuck what you think of me, or what you say (which is usually boringly bitchy, yet predictable and inevitably dull – lady, you have no gift for the language).

    You exaggerate your importance, at least to me, in advising me to “get over” some imagined offence that you have caused me to suffer. I hope it conforted you, thinking you’d gotcha’d me with but two cutting words. But really, there is nothing to “get over”. I either completely missed your rapier-like intervention, or have forgotten about it entirely.

    So, tough titties Horsey, here’s another alleged bigwig you’ve failed to impress.

    You are still off the list. Not constructive enough.

  39. The smart answer (after the event) was to ask Ben Fordham if he had ever masterbated or politely answer why should NSW women face criminal charges for a medical procedure that is legal in other parts of Australia

    Well yes and this gets to the point of it all. How many of those NSW MPs currently opposing abortion law reform in NSW are willing to state publicly and loudly that they are happy to see women seeking terminations face the full force of the criminal act under which they can currently be charged? Because this is what they are arguing for. And this applies to Barnaby who has been out and about whipping up hysteria among his numpty faithful on the issue.

    Asking the NSW Premier how she’d deal with an unwanted pregnancy is irrelevant. That isn’t the issue being debated in NSW parliament.

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