Quite a bit to report of late, starting out with federal redistribution prospects for the coming term:
• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a research paper on the likely outcome of the state and territory seat entitlement determinations when they are calculated in the middle of the next year. The conclusion reached is as it was when I did something similar in January: that Western Australia is sure to lose the sixteenth seat it gained in 2016; that Victoria will sneak over the line to gain a thirty-ninth (and its second in consecutive electoral cycles, a prodigiousness once associated with Queensland); and the Northern Territory will fall below it and lose one of its two seats.
• The West Australian reports Liberal and Labor will respectively be lobbying for Burt and Hasluck to be abolished, though given the two are neighbours, this is perhaps a fine distinction – the effect of either might be to put Matt Keogh and Ken Wyatt in competition for an effectively merged seat. The view seems to be that an eastern suburbs seat would be easiest to cut, as the core electorates of the metropolitan area are strongly defined by rivers and the sea, and three seats are needed to account for the state’s periphery. (There was also a new set of state boundaries for Western Australia published on Friday, which you can read all about here).
• The predicted outcome in the Northern Territory, whose population has taken a battering since the end of the resources construction boom, would leave its single electorate with an enrolment nearly 30% above the national norm – an awkward look for what would also be the country’s most heavily indigenous electorate. The Northern Territory has had two electorates since 1996, but came close to losing one in 2003 when its population fell just 295 below the entitlement threshold. This was averted through a light legislative tweak, but this time the population shortfall is projected to approach 5000.
Poll news:
• The word from Essential Research that its voting intention numbers will resume in “a month or two”. Curiously, its public line is that its reform efforts are focused on its “two-party preferred modelling”, when the pollsters’ critical failures came on the primary vote.
• Kevin Bonham laments the crisis-what-crisis stance adopted by The Australian and YouGov Galaxy upon the return of Newspoll. My own coverage of the matter was featured in a paywalled Crikey article on Monday, which concluded thus:
In the past, YouGov Galaxy has felt able to justify the opaqueness of its methods on the grounds that its “track record speaks for itself”. That justification will be finding far fewer takers today than it did before the great shock of May 18.
• Liberal insiders have been spruiking their success in winning back the support of working mothers as the key to their election win, as related through an account of internal party research in the Age/Herald. However, Jill Sheppard at the Australian National University retorts that the numbers cited are quantitative data drawn from qualitative research (specifically focus groups), which is assuredly not the right idea.
Preselection news:
• There are six preselection nominees for Mitch Fifield’s Liberal Senate vacancy in Victoria: Sarah Henderson, until recently the member for the Corangamite, and generally reckoned the favourite; Greg Mirabella, former state party vice-president and the husband of Sophie Mirabella, whose prospects were talked up in The Australian last week; Chris Crewther, recently defeated member for Dunkley; state politics veteran and 2018 election casualty Inga Peulich; and, less familiarly, Kyle Hoppitt, John MacIsaac and Mimmie Watts.
• The Australian last week reported a timeline had yet to be set for the preselection to replace Arthur Sinodinos in New South Wales. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Liberal moderates might be planning on backing a candidate of the hard Right, rather than one of their own in James Brown, state RSL president and son-in-law of Malcolm Turnbull. The idea is apparently that the nominee will then go on to muscle aside factional colleague Connie Fierravanti-Wells at preselection for the next election. However, all that’s known of that potential candidate is that it won’t be Jim Molan, who is opposed by feared moderate operator Michael Photios.
• The Sydney Morning Herald report also relates that former Premier Mike Baird’s withdrawal from the race to become chief executive of the National Australia Bank has prompted suggestions he might have his eye on a federal berth in Warringah at the next election. Also said to be interested is state upper house MP Natalie Ward.
Electoral law news:
• The Guardian reports that Oliver Yates, independent candidate for Kooyong, is challenging Josh Frydenberg’s win on the grounds that Chinese language signs demonstrating how to vote Liberal looked rather a lot like instructions from the Australian Electoral Commission. The complainant must establish that the communication was “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of a vote”, which has provided a rich seem of unsuccessful litigation over the decades. It seems it is acknowledged that this is only the test case, in that it is not anticipated the court will overturn the result. Such might have been the case in Chisholm, which was the focal point of complaints about the signs, and where the result was much closer. However, Labor has opted not to press the issue, no doubt because it has little cause to think a by-election would go well for them. Yates’s challenge has been launched days prior to today’s expiry of the 40-day deadline for challenges before the Court of Disputed Returns.
• The difficulty of getting such actions to stick, together with the general tenor of election campaigning in recent years, have encouraged suggestions that a truth-in-advertising regime may be in order, such as operates at state level in South Australia. More from Mike Steketee in Inside Story.
Peg
That TPP article critical of the ALP is from 2018.
Do you want us to drag out the 2018 encyclopaedia of Greens internal bastardry, sexist misdemeanour, bullying, personality disputes, defections from the party, red vs blue vs treehugger factions?
Better to stay with 2019, preferably post May 18 articles.
“…with a suite of measures to change the way Australia negotiates trade deals when Labor retakes government.
:::
The ALP has now committed to serious and much-needed reforms of our trade system to make sure that future deals benefit working people and are subject to real public and parliamentary accountability,” she said.”
How did that political strategy of retaking government work out?
The ACTU foolishly put all its eggs in the one basket when it endorsed a vote #1 Labor htv. In the eyes of some aspirationals this action just reinforced how beholden Labor is to unions.
sprocket
To tackle historical revisionism re TPP one needs to go back in time.
I understand your lack of concern when your fellow travellers post links to articles from the past.
I understand your need to deflect from Labor’s past actions and go all ad hominem.
Yet there are those who insist that Shorten was the untrustworthy one. Now that he is not in command, the leakers are out, as are the nitpickers.
________________
Funny that leaks come out now that paint Shorten as a pillar of rectitude and Albo as being opposed to a Federal ICAC. I wonder who could be leaking?
The only time there is no ALP leaking is when Shorten is the leader. Get that?
Oooh are we linking to articles from before the election to explain how parties stand on issues post the election? Using that logic it is fair to assume the Greens are extremely tolerant of sexual violence and misogyny towards women given the number of their MPs and candidates that have behaved appallingly.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-feed/greens-divided-on-how-to-deal-with-allegations-of-sexual-misconduct-within-the-party
Pegasus @ #753 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 12:58 pm
WTF does this mean!?! I post a contemporaneous article which outlines clearly what Labor’s position re the TPP and ISDS was, which has the backing of the ACTU what’s more, and Miss Snippy Pants bends it all out of shape to suit an hominem of her own.
Honestly, as I observed yesterday, The Greens have more in common with Donald Trump than they would care to admit.
They take the nuanced reality, bend it out of shape, then throw in a demeaning insult to their opponents as the icing on the cake.
It’s facile, and only serves to diminish them, as opposed to the people or party they are directing this asinine behaviour at.
Perhaps Shorten should be returned to the leadership. It’s the only way for the ALP to avoid leaking and destabilisation.
And following that same logic, the Greens are obviously so tolerant of sexual assault that they cover up the crime, even going so far to as to character assassinate and publicly sledge the alleged victim in order to protect the accused.
https://newmatilda.com/2018/11/13/never-crime-always-cover-greens-set-implode-sexual-assault-allegations/
That’s rather Trumpian in my view.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-02/women-say-greens-botched-sexual-misconduct-complaints/10060954
Liberals – Greens: Same – same.
Confessions (who according to her never baits or trolls lol)
Ooooohhh deflect, deflect….let’s pivot from a discussion re historical revisionism of the TPP and Labor’s action to those supposedly irrelevant Greens.
What a hoot.
You go girl!
Pegasus @ #760 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 1:11 pm
Deflect! Deflect! You go girl! Giddy up!
nath
“Perhaps Shorten should be returned to the leadership. It’s the only way for the ALP to avoid leaking and destabilisation.”
It’s unknown who is leaking but the instability and fracturing under Albanese will be a slow burn if it is not nipped in the bud.
The other thing we don’t hear much of anymore is a UBI, that much vaunted policy Di Natale made the centrepiece of his address to the NPC only months ago. Instead the party focuses on Newstart, which is odd considering their policy only months ago was to abolish Newstart.
‘fess,
Not to mention nath’s vile and sexually explicit slur against Bill and Chloe Shorten, wherein he stated that Bill Shorten would pimp Chloe out to Prince Harry if it would make him more popular before the election.
1. Pegasus didn’t denounce nath.
2. nath says he is a Greens supporter.
Number 1 and 2 go hand in hand.
What’s once former Labor luminaries such as Plibersek got to say for herself these days.
Margaret Cunnene (who amusingly described her surname as “three ‘n’s, no ‘t’) is not the solution to anti-corruption
One thing about Tanya Plibersek, she has more class than to pull stupid faces behind other MP’s backs in parliament.
‘Deflection’ and ‘look over there’ are interesting choice of words to use given this was precisely the Greens’ preferred response to accusations of sexual assault within the party.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2018/08/09/are-the-greens-ignoring-sexual-assault/
E. G. Theodore @ #766 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 1:18 pm
Exactly. It was only her Liberal connections that got her out of some very hot water.
C@t:
Nath is best ignored in my view.
Confessions @ #770 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 1:20 pm
He appears to be a Useful Idiot for The Greens. He will say things about Labor that other Greens will only think to themselves.
sprocket
omg Where are you? Confessions is going full bore posting links to pre May 2019 articles.
Go on, show you are not a hypocrite and give her a thorough scolding.
nath @ #757 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 1:09 pm
Seriously, it’s becoming increasingly apparent that Shorten could herd cats, there’s no-one else remotely capable of that in either Labor or the LNP.
Greta Thunberg
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/02/greta-thunberg-hits-back-at-andrew-bolt-for-deeply-disturbing-column
Penny Wong.
Shorten must be returned. Mysterious forces in the ALP will not abide another leader. Shorten is the only one capable of placating these mystery forces. Under him, leaking was almost non existent.
It was easier for Shorten to maintain party stability and unity when the scent of entitlement to power was thought to be coming Labor’s way.
Now the realisation of how powerless they really are in opposition is causing Labor parliamentarians to process their loss in different ways.
Leaking by malcontents is one way.
“Working people have started to vote for the Far Right in the current era in the same way as they did in the 1930s. The alternative framework is social democracy. But social democracy has been construed as an anti-jobs and therefore anti-worker project. Workers who are the most vulnerable – who have the most tenuous incomes, the weakest incomes and who are unable to develop solidarity with other workers – are the most likely to be wooed by the Right.
Decades of labour repression have driven many workers away from social democracy. The Liberals really do get this. They know how to use it. They will intensify this.”
____________
Really? I’m pretty sure that the NAZIs tried to recruit disaffected working class Germans to the cause in the 1930s but were singularly unsuccessful. From what I can recall after the collapse of the social democrat parties at the 1930 election the Nazis picked up the rural vote to complement their petite bourgeoisie base and the communists picked up the workers. The comms collapsed in the 1932 elections but from what I can recall their vote splintered and went to ‘any one but the Nazis’.
Of all bludgers, surprisingly I think nath has the best handle on the topic.
Dan Gulberry @ #710 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 11:10 am
Labor have proven over the yrs to be a faux opposition.
We have a Govt that is owned lock stock and barrel by vested interests, whose agenda is anti-social, with a faux opposition party. It’s a dire situation for as long as voters continue their illogical blind partisanship.
a r
Penny Wong has been mentioned to me many times by disillusioned Labor stalwarts as a likely leader.
Really? I’m pretty sure that the NAZIs tried to recruit disaffected working class Germans to the cause in the 1930s but were singularly unsuccessful
______________________________
Brownshirts tried to march in the most working class districts of Berlin in the 30s; the Wedding district. It didn’t end well for them. Armed communists came flooding out of the tenement buildings and gave them a decent going over. Even when Hitler was in power that part of Berlin was always entered warily by police etc.
Yes indeed. Just nearby a leash free area for dogs is nearly completion (fencing etc). I no longer have a dog but perhaps Brown Bear might like a visit.
I have done my mowing and the area in my yard will now be free until after the freesias have popped up their little heads. The passing mums with toddlers will be able to tell the little ones of the glory of nature.
I have a set routine with the mowing because a lady of my daughters’ age living opposite (with oddles of freesias) has had occasion to chide me about mowing during flowering season.
Currently about 15℃ showery and really good weather for being tucked up in bed with a good book. 📖 ☕
It was known as ‘Red Wedding’ long before Game of Thrones came about!
Bellwether @ #773 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 1:29 pm
Joel Fitzgibbon is the great white hope… just ask him !
Listening to Briefly on the 1930s is like listening to Briefly on any topic. Sorting through his delusions is a waste of time.
Albo will be on Insiders. I hope they have a decent panel.
“…I remember the wild freesias adorning the best view of Newcastle – from Braye Park on a clear winters morning.”
A hidden gem in Newcastle’s Western suburbs.
And, just like Trump, Pegasus doubles down when caught out.
Scotty sure is tackling the big issues of the day.
Confessions @ #789 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 1:53 pm
while the criminals who illegally clear land get an amnesty
Itza:
I really don’t understand the logic of the amnesty. Outside of caving into vested interests of course.
It’s all very simple.
– People clearing land, legally or otherwise, are Coalition mates.
– Vegans, environmentalists and climate activists are class enemies.
a r @ #775 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 1:30 pm
Mark Butler
nath @ #757 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 1:09 pm
Shorten will be returned…the ol’ quadruple by-pass…Rodent style..
This is Straya ol’mate
Comfortably numb and wilfully ignorant in our Coal-ition led economy, well at least some are.
Exccept those pesky environmentalists who actually seem to give a shit about something other than their own interests and future corporate job opportunites
“Just one in 20 Australian news stories about drought mention climate change
Scientists say increasing temperatures worsen drought, but the link has rarely been made in the media in the past two years”
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2019/aug/02/just-one-in-20-australian-news-stories-about-drought-mention-climate-change
“Climate change is making the drought in eastern Australia more severe and contributing to the woes of the Murray-Darling river system. However, only around one in 20 news stories about the drought mention climate change.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-02/fraser-anning-facing-bankruptcy-believed-to-be-in-united-states/11377610
How good is Lyle Shelton, making a hero of Barnaby?
One court hearing moving towards settlement – https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-01/clive-palmer-settles-with-creditor-in-queensland-nickel-lawsuit/11364862 –
Can’t be long till Justice Bromberg delivers judgment in the AWU/ROC warrants case.
lizzie:
Shelton neatly avoids the issue of Barnaby’s infidelity and breaking up of his marriage. Such hypocrisy as usual from these outspoken religious fundies.