Quite a bit to report of late, starting out with federal redistribution prospects for the coming term:
• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a research paper on the likely outcome of the state and territory seat entitlement determinations when they are calculated in the middle of the next year. The conclusion reached is as it was when I did something similar in January: that Western Australia is sure to lose the sixteenth seat it gained in 2016; that Victoria will sneak over the line to gain a thirty-ninth (and its second in consecutive electoral cycles, a prodigiousness once associated with Queensland); and the Northern Territory will fall below it and lose one of its two seats.
• The West Australian reports Liberal and Labor will respectively be lobbying for Burt and Hasluck to be abolished, though given the two are neighbours, this is perhaps a fine distinction – the effect of either might be to put Matt Keogh and Ken Wyatt in competition for an effectively merged seat. The view seems to be that an eastern suburbs seat would be easiest to cut, as the core electorates of the metropolitan area are strongly defined by rivers and the sea, and three seats are needed to account for the state’s periphery. (There was also a new set of state boundaries for Western Australia published on Friday, which you can read all about here).
• The predicted outcome in the Northern Territory, whose population has taken a battering since the end of the resources construction boom, would leave its single electorate with an enrolment nearly 30% above the national norm – an awkward look for what would also be the country’s most heavily indigenous electorate. The Northern Territory has had two electorates since 1996, but came close to losing one in 2003 when its population fell just 295 below the entitlement threshold. This was averted through a light legislative tweak, but this time the population shortfall is projected to approach 5000.
Poll news:
• The word from Essential Research that its voting intention numbers will resume in “a month or two”. Curiously, its public line is that its reform efforts are focused on its “two-party preferred modelling”, when the pollsters’ critical failures came on the primary vote.
• Kevin Bonham laments the crisis-what-crisis stance adopted by The Australian and YouGov Galaxy upon the return of Newspoll. My own coverage of the matter was featured in a paywalled Crikey article on Monday, which concluded thus:
In the past, YouGov Galaxy has felt able to justify the opaqueness of its methods on the grounds that its “track record speaks for itself”. That justification will be finding far fewer takers today than it did before the great shock of May 18.
• Liberal insiders have been spruiking their success in winning back the support of working mothers as the key to their election win, as related through an account of internal party research in the Age/Herald. However, Jill Sheppard at the Australian National University retorts that the numbers cited are quantitative data drawn from qualitative research (specifically focus groups), which is assuredly not the right idea.
Preselection news:
• There are six preselection nominees for Mitch Fifield’s Liberal Senate vacancy in Victoria: Sarah Henderson, until recently the member for the Corangamite, and generally reckoned the favourite; Greg Mirabella, former state party vice-president and the husband of Sophie Mirabella, whose prospects were talked up in The Australian last week; Chris Crewther, recently defeated member for Dunkley; state politics veteran and 2018 election casualty Inga Peulich; and, less familiarly, Kyle Hoppitt, John MacIsaac and Mimmie Watts.
• The Australian last week reported a timeline had yet to be set for the preselection to replace Arthur Sinodinos in New South Wales. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Liberal moderates might be planning on backing a candidate of the hard Right, rather than one of their own in James Brown, state RSL president and son-in-law of Malcolm Turnbull. The idea is apparently that the nominee will then go on to muscle aside factional colleague Connie Fierravanti-Wells at preselection for the next election. However, all that’s known of that potential candidate is that it won’t be Jim Molan, who is opposed by feared moderate operator Michael Photios.
• The Sydney Morning Herald report also relates that former Premier Mike Baird’s withdrawal from the race to become chief executive of the National Australia Bank has prompted suggestions he might have his eye on a federal berth in Warringah at the next election. Also said to be interested is state upper house MP Natalie Ward.
Electoral law news:
• The Guardian reports that Oliver Yates, independent candidate for Kooyong, is challenging Josh Frydenberg’s win on the grounds that Chinese language signs demonstrating how to vote Liberal looked rather a lot like instructions from the Australian Electoral Commission. The complainant must establish that the communication was “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of a vote”, which has provided a rich seem of unsuccessful litigation over the decades. It seems it is acknowledged that this is only the test case, in that it is not anticipated the court will overturn the result. Such might have been the case in Chisholm, which was the focal point of complaints about the signs, and where the result was much closer. However, Labor has opted not to press the issue, no doubt because it has little cause to think a by-election would go well for them. Yates’s challenge has been launched days prior to today’s expiry of the 40-day deadline for challenges before the Court of Disputed Returns.
• The difficulty of getting such actions to stick, together with the general tenor of election campaigning in recent years, have encouraged suggestions that a truth-in-advertising regime may be in order, such as operates at state level in South Australia. More from Mike Steketee in Inside Story.
Vic:
We aren’t the only ones despairing at the Democrats!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/08/01/dont-mess-this-up-democrats-we-need-get-rid-trump/?utm_term=.f2ff91a57133
lizzie @ #650 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 8:57 am
Which is exactly what followed! Then we went picking wild Freesias.
As usual, Pegasus puts the spin of a misleading miscreant onto national affairs:
For a decade and longer, both major parties have been complicit in obstructing the implementation of a federal ICAC.
Since 2018 both major parties have belatedly joined the bandwagon due to growing and persistent pressure from the public, legal practitioners, Greens, and other crossbenchers who have kept the issue on the boil.
Both major parties would have preferred business as usual that entails hoovering up political donations from vested interests, including the gambling industry, and participating in the revolving door between ex-politicians and these same vested interests who seek to influence policy.
Now, if you actually read what Anthony Albanese and other senior Labor figures said wrt their misgivings towards having a Federal ICAC, you would see that the experience of the Coalition pulling its teeth and turning it into a Get Labor Commission, weighed heavily on their minds. A result of the NSW experience:
Valid points I would have thought.
Also, there was this aspect:
However, the debate went on in the ALP, with Mark Dreyfus leading the charge, it was pointed out in the article that:
To the point the ALP are at now where:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/senior-labor-figures-including-anthony-albanese-argued-against-anti-corruption-watchdog-20190801-p52d15.html
So, you can believe Pegasuss’ propaganda, meant to disparage Labor with another dose of Bothism, or you can believe the truth.
My hypothesis before the election was that the rulings on S44 would decrease the number of indies running (it would make life too hard for them, and rule out ‘on the moment’ decisions to run).
Does anyone know if this happened?
We only had one indie run in Indi, which is unusual, but which we explained away as the effect of having one very strong indie candidate.
I’ve only just remembered my predicted impact of S44!
Victoria @ #640 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 8:36 am
And here we had the hopeless ALP taking aim and shooting themselves in the head.
It really is like they don’t care that the country is heading now towards a decade of nothingness.
If they did care they’d doing everything they can to bring on an early election.
Crash through or crash.
Analysis of voter turnout by Nick Economou:
https://theconversation.com/renters-hold-the-key-to-low-voter-turn-out-at-federal-elections-120494
Itza
But it was much better when the incantations were in a dead language plus plenty of smoke and bells
Fess
It is very depressing. With everything that is going on with Trump and his acolytes including tax cuts for the top end that has resulted in a blow out with deficit and the impending cuts to services that people rely on.
The Democrats appear to be even more hopeless than our federal Labor team. Very depressing.
Federal ICAC:
June 4, 2019: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6190957/a-government-of-integrity/
Spot on
Rick Wilson
@TheRickWilson
·
10h
1. This election is a referendum on Trump and nothing else. Policy is completely irrelevant.
2. Only the electoral college matters. If your campaign isn’t focused on the 15 swing States you’re helping Trump.
The beatings will continue until morale improves.
Greens senator Larissa Waters on fracking
“This August will mark 8 years since I first introduced a bill to our parliament to ban fracking and give landholders and traditional owners the right to say ‘no’ to exploration and extraction of coal and gas from their properties.
Eight years on, the Greens continue to stand with the community against fracking.
I will continue to work to gain support from the Government, Opposition and cross bench to see this Bill pass.
Sadly, the major parties are more interested in doing the bidding of the massive coal, oil and gas companies that donate to their election campaigns than protecting our environment.
This is why I am also committed to banning donations from the fossil fuel and resources sectors to political parties, and why The Greens want to see tighter regulations on ex-ministers going to work in the very industries they were previously meant to regulate – such as with the case of former Resources Minister Ian MacFarlane going to work for the Queensland Resources Council shortly after retiring from politics.”
@ ar, re the latest UK opinion polls:
“Labor, Lib Dem, and Greens on a combined 50% sounds like a winning Coalition.
The brexit idiots only get 43% between themselves.”
________________________
Are you trying to delude yourself or others mate. You must realise that in a first past the post electoral based system a split that big in the non Tory-Brexit forces would equal disaster at a GE.
Unless the unimaginable happened and ‘for the good of the country’ Labour, LibDems and the Greens agreed not to run candidates against each other in seats that one of them would likely win on some sort of unity ticket.
Vic:
This is spot on too.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/08/01/dont-mess-this-up-democrats-we-need-get-rid-trump/?utm_term=.f2ff91a57133
Manhattan D.A. Subpoenas Trump Organization Over Stormy Daniels Hush Money
Cyrus R. Vance Jr., the Manhattan district attorney, is reviving an investigation into payments made to two women during the 2016 campaign.
The subpoena, issued by the Manhattan district attorney’s office, demanded the Trump Organization provide documents related to money that had been used to buy the silence of Stormy Daniels, a pornographic film actress who said she had an affair with Mr. Trump.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/01/nyregion/trump-cohen-stormy-daniels-vance.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
This is spot on.
By far the greatest threat to the USA’s ‘democracy’ is this court stacking. It will last for decades!!
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/08/01/should-send-shockwaves-across-nation-grave-warnings-mcconnell-accelerates-right-wing
Thank someone we have nothing near as fraught here in Australia.
What a great roundup this morning BK.
I was very interested in this item 👇👇👇👇👇
The Guardian reveals how George Christensen is palling up with alt.right types.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/02/george-christensen-expenses-trip-to-meet-alt-right-figure-lauren-southern-but-she-doesnt-show
As the last tiny paragraph in this article comes this 👇
In the body of the article we find
The rest of the article is a little bit of this and some more of that. Mr. Geo Christensen seems to get around and has friends who say they pay his bills. Ms. Southern also has friends (Mr. Stefan Molyneux for instance) and does not pay her bills.
Should I never more (quoth the raven) hear of any of the protagonists mentioned in this article I believe I would be quite content.
Thought for the day.
Time for some remedial mowing of a section of the yard where the wild 💮 freesias 💮 will appear in their own good time. Just how wild they will be remains to be seen. 😇☕
In Australia there are a staggering three million people below the poverty line. Bear in mind that poverty is like polio: entirely preventable with the right systems in place. It is disgusting that so much poverty exists.
In Australia the poverty line for a single person is $62 per day. For a couple with two kids, without considering housing costs, the poverty line is $130 per day.
To lift a single Newstart recipient above the poverty line it is necessary to increase Newstart by least $150 per week.
Newstart has fallen far below the poverty line because it is only indexed to the CPI, which is too general a measure for the specific circumstances of Newstart recipients.
The last time the federal government made a discretionary increase to Newstart was a quarter century ago, way back in 1994.
Note that the Rudd and Gillard Labor Governments could have lifted Newstart but chose not to for the same reasons as the current government (a misguided pursuit of a fiscal surplus; the false idea that the root problem is the deficiencies of the unemployed rather than the chronic shortage of jobs).
Ideally the minimum wage and all pensions and income support would be indexed to average labour productivity. This would guarantee that increased prosperity of our society as a whole would directly and automatically benefit people at the bottom of the income distribution.
Indexing those low incomes to average weekly earnings would be the second best approach.
Indexing the low incomes to the ABS price index that is designed specifically for the circumstances of income support recipients would be the third best approach.
Indexing to the CPI is a distant fourth.
Funny to see the Catholics and the Happy Clappers going at each other in the Folausphere.
Gives the Godless Rugger Buggers and the Gays some breathing space until the next outrage.
But an interesting point has been raised… the Micks and fellow God-botherers all want the right to sack Gays for being gay. But what’s the score when they start getting stuck into each other for their various shades of Christian religious beliefs?
AE
An electoral pact in the UK is exactly what should happen so that a pro vs anti Brexit vote could occur.
But it want and in any case Labour would still be in the pro-Brexit side beacuse the people have spoken
Andrew_Earlwood @ #662 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 9:26 am
I like that strategy. They should go with it.
The point was that Brexit’s support is anemic, with the majority of people getting behind various ‘remain’ flavored options. That the democratic process is set up in a way that can/will produce an unrepresentative outcome that will drag everyone off the Brexit cliff anyways is neither here nor there.
The left losing because of disorganization, disunity, and not understanding that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” would be nothing new.
And the Happy Clappers that run this government haven’t even turned their attention to the Seventh Day Adventists, the Mormons, the Anglicans, the Uniting Church, the Scientologists, the Methodists, the Jews or the Muslims! 😆
“Some in shadow cabinet, including members of the NSW Right faction, drew on the “disastrous” experience of the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption and its “political show trials”.
Valid points I would have thought.”
————————————–
Ha, a valid point to corrupt parties worried about actually getting caught with their hands in the money trough or exposed as acting against the public interests for some mates.
The COAL-ition of the willing to keep their mates safe, in the hope of future kickbacks or job opportunities. That’s the LNP-ALP on Crown, and shooting wombats it seems too.
Some in shadow cabinet, including members of the NSW Right faction, drew on the “disastrous” experience of the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption and its “political show trials”.
I hope that the SMH has made this up.
Labor must get behind the Federal ICAC and insist that Margaret Cunneen is appointed commissioner
OC
The Labor boat is leaking.
AR
You do know that Labour is pro-Brexit don’t you?
Because a failure to deliver on the referendum result would be a betrayal of democracy
I think Geoff Lemon enjoyed Steve Smith’s innings last night!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-02/steve-smith-makes-ashes-magic-with-innings-shouldnt-be-possible/11376716
Oakeshott Country @ #672 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 9:50 am
If you had actually read the article, rather than relying on the misleading bs that Quoll and Pegasus post in their carefully selected way, you would know that the answer to that question is, yes, Labor are whole-heartedly behind a federal ICAC.
sprocket_ says:
Friday, August 2, 2019 at 7:03 am
“Waiting for the ‘free speech’ lobby to come out hard in defence of Israel Folau’s cousin”
I am an advocate for free speech in particular for those I disagree with.
In the case of Mr I Folau’s cousin the employer has acted appropriately and in accordance with the law. I am not concerned about this and agree with Mr Tim Costello that religious and political organisations should continue to be able to require their employees to support their ethos and not do anything detrimental in that regard.
In the case of Mr I Folau I agree with Gillian Trigg that it appears that the employer has breached the anti-religious discrimination section of the FWA and that the courts will be the final say in the matter unless settled before which looks doubtful.
OC
Margaret Cunneen is to the right of the right side of the little toe on nath’s right foot.
Panel discussion about the 2nd primary debate. Tom Nichols as always makes perfect sense.
https://www.wbur.org/radioboston/2019/08/01/democratic-debate-part-two
The drag of fossil fuel subsidies:
https://reneweconomy.com.au/global-fossil-fuel-subsidies-reach-5-2-trillion-and-29-billion-in-australia-91592/
mundo says:
Friday, August 2, 2019 at 8:05 am
Why, would you want, or, is there any need to make increasing Newstart a central part of your platform?
Morrison is right when he implies that there are few votes in it, but he is wrong thinking that is a reason not to increase it when in Government.
Sometimes you just do things because it’s the right thing to do!
Fossil fuel subsidies
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/01/fossil-fuel-subsidy-cash-pay-green-energy-transition
Bushfire Bill says:
Friday, August 2, 2019 at 9:38 am
“But an interesting point has been raised… the Micks and fellow God-botherers all want the right to sack Gays for being gay.”
I have never heard of this. Can you provide any evidence for this claim?
Shellbell @ #678 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 10:00 am
He likely is well aware of that. OC is a curmudgeon and a mischief-maker.
Margaret Cunneen:
https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/fake-news-margaret-cunneen-rules-out-federal-court-or-anti-corruption-gig-20190801-p52cx2.html
OC was obviously being sarcastic.
More canaries in the coal mine, as the cracks don’t just simply appear in the buildings:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-01/construction-industry-cracks-showing-as-major-developer-falls/11374464
Oakeshott Country says:
Friday, August 2, 2019 at 9:54 am
I believe you are wasting your time on AR who clearly knows very little about UK Politics.
Pegasus @ #686 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 10:12 am
I guess so, you’re the expert on these things. 😐
Oakeshott Country @ #674 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 9:54 am
I know that Corbyn likes to sit on the fence about it. And that it’s working about as well for him as it has for everyone else that’s tried it.
Even with Corbyn screwing it up, UK Labour isn’t pro- anything that Johnson and the Brexit party are selling. Labour would go for either a soft Brexit (softer than May’s Brexit, even) or no Brexit at all.
GG
That article from Geoff Lemon about Smith’s innings was so beautifully written. Thanks for posting it.
I’m with a r. Corbyn could win by running on a very soft-landing Brexit for the UK.
@C@tmomma
I argue that Corbyn and the Labour can only win, if they advocate a ‘Remain and Reform’ agenda like the Green Party under Caroline Lucas is arguing for. Since a lot of those young people who rallied behind Jeremy Corbyn are passionately against Brexit.
Corbyn and Labour currently state they will support a ‘Remain’ position on Brexit should another vote be taken.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/09/corbyn-says-labour-would-back-remain-in-brexit-referendum
BK @ #692 Friday, August 2nd, 2019 – 10:19 am
Lemon and adam Collins do a podcast every day of the Test Series which is well worth a listen.
It’s broadcast on your local racing station about 5.45am.
https://finalwordcricket.com/
Pegasus says:
Friday, August 2, 2019 at 9:22 am
Greens senator Larissa Waters on fracking
“This August will mark 8 years since I first introduced a bill to our parliament to ban fracking and give landholders and traditional owners the right to say ‘no’ to exploration and extraction of coal and gas from their properties.
While no new fracking permits will be issued in WA as a result of the policy of the McGowan government, one of the consequences has been to take away the rights of traditional owners to receive new permits. They have the right, along with others, to say No to fracking. But they no longer have the right to say Yes to new permits that would be to their economic advantage. This is an issue in economic self-determination for First Peoples as well as an environmental issue and has been live in WA Labor for many years.
Things are not as simple as the Lib-kin like to make out.
Meanwhile in Canada, the Conservative Party appear to be in a position to win the election defeating the one-term Trudeau Government with perhaps 33-35% of the vote in a first past the post system, where the ~60% of the electorate will vote for anti-Conservative parties.
Isn’t it wonderful! Canada step forward! Latte-sippers step out!
Barney in Makassar says:
Friday, August 2, 2019 at 10:04 am
mundo says:
Friday, August 2, 2019 at 8:05 am
So Scrotty rules out increasing Newstart.
Labor’s first big test for the ‘new’ team.
Economists agree, industry, business and community groups agree….Labor agrees.
Now all Labor has to do is craft an argument that the punters find irresistible and one which skewers Scrotty.
Piece of cake.
Step one; what would Scrotty do.
Over to you Anthony and Jim.
Why, would you want, or, is there any need to make increasing Newstart a central part of your platform?
Morrison is right when he implies that there are few votes in it, but he is wrong thinking that is a reason not to increase it when in Government.
Sometimes you just do things because it’s the right thing to do!
The LNP will continue to undermine and erode Social Security. They have no intention of strengthening it. This system was one of the very great achievements of Curtin and Chifley. The Liberals will destroy it if they can.