Call of the board: Sydney

Ahead of Newspoll’s apparently looming return, the first in a series that probes deep into the entrails of the May 19 election result.

In case you were wondering, The Australian reported on Monday that the first Newspoll since the election – indeed, the first poll on voting intention of any kind since the election, unless someone else quickly gets in first – will be published “very shortly”.

In the meantime, I offer what will be the first in a series of posts that probe deep into the results of the federal election region by region, starting with Sydney and some of its immediate surrounds. Below are two colour-coded maps showing the two-party preferred swing at polling booth level, with each booth allocated a geographic catchment area built out of the “mesh blocks” that form the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ smallest unit of geographic analysis (typically encompassing about 30 dwellings). The image on the right encompasses the core of the city, while the second zooms further out. To get a proper look at either, click for an enlarged image.

In a pattern that will recur throughout this series, there is a clear zone of red in the inner city and the affluent, established eastern suburbs and northern beaches regions, giving way to an ocean of blue in the middle and outer suburbs. The occasional patches of red that break this up are often associated with sophomore surge effects, which played out to the advantage of Mike Freelander, who had no trouble retaining Macarthur (more on that below); Susan Templeman, who held out against a 2.0% swing in Macquarie; and Emma McBride, who survived a 3.3% swing in Dobell (albeit there was little to distinguish this from a 3.1% swing in neighbouring, Liberal-held Robertson).

The second part of our analysis compares the actual two-party results from the election with the results predicted by a linear regression model similar to, but more elaborate than, that presented here shortly after the election. This is based on the correlations observed across the nation between booth-level two-party results and the demography of booths’ catchment areas. The gory details of the model can be found here (the dependent variable being Labor’s two-party preferred percentage). The r-squared values indicate that the model explains 76.5% of the variation in the results – and doesn’t explain another 23.5%. Among the myriad unexplained factors that constitute the latter figure, the personal appeal (or lack thereof) of the sitting member (if any) might be expected to have a considerable bearing.

Such a model can be used to produce estimates that hopefully give some idea as to where the two parties were punching above and below their weight, and where the results were as we might have expected in view of broader trends. The latter more-or-less encompasses Lindsay, which was the only seat in the Sydney region to change hands between Labor and the Coalition (the only other change being Zali Steggall’s win over Tony Abbott in Warringah). The table below shows, progressively, the model’s estimate of Labor’s two-party vote, the actual result, and the difference between the two.

The first thing that leaps out is that the current leaders of both parties did exceptionally well, with their margins evidently being padded out by their substantial personal votes. Beyond that though, patterns get a little harder to discern. The Liberal-versus-independent contests in Warringah and Wentworth appear to have had very different effects on the Coalition’s two-party margins over Labor, which reduced to a remarkably narrow 2.1% as voters turned on Tony Abbott in Warringah, but remained solid at 9.8% in Wentworth, suggesting Dave Sharma may have accumulated a few fans through two recent campaigns and a dignified showing in the wake of the by-election defeat. That there was nonetheless a 7.9% two-party swing to Labor illustrates that he still has a way to go before he matches Malcolm Turnbull on this score.

The modelled result further emphasises the particularly good result Labor had in Macarthur, a seat the Liberals held from 1996 until 2016, when Russell Matheson suffered first an 8.3% reduction in his margin at a redistribution, and then an 11.7% swing to Labor’s Michael Freelander, a local paediatrician. At the May 19 election, the seat defied the national pattern in which outer urban seats that responded had unfavourably to Malcolm Turnbull swept back to the Liberals, with Freelander in fact managing the tiniest of swings in his favour. In addition to Freelander’s apparent popularity, this probably reflected a lack of effort put into the Liberal campaign, as the party narrowly focused on its offensive moves in Lindsay and Macquarie and defensive ones in Gilmore and Reid.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,549 comments on “Call of the board: Sydney”

Comments Page 4 of 31
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  1. If the surge in membership of my non-inner city, local Greens branch is anything to go by, the Greens are here to stay for the foreseeable future.

  2. Pegasus says:
    Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 11:47 am

    B

    My point is the extremity of his language.

    How very selective of you.

    A point that could be made against a few other posters, every day, all day.

    But you don’t, do you.

    I think you’ll find use of language is topic I have commented on regularly in the past.

    As I said to poroti, I generally agree with what he’s saying, but to someone sitting on the fence or opposed to his view, he’s not going to convert any of them expressing his point like he did.

    Of course I could rarely criticise you on this point because you so rarely post your own words.

  3. lizzie says:
    Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 11:03 am

    Simon Katich

    I have no idea why, but I have learned through PB that “surely” is verboten. Such a useful word, too.

    ——————————————-

    Would you stop calling me Shirley!!!

  4. briefly

    We owe the existence of our population of political internees to the Greens, who voted with their alter-egos, the Liberals, to defeat Labor’s Malaysia Solution.

    I agree with this statement, but the excuse for “Stop the Boats” was to prevent “even one death”, when the policy has caused many deaths in detention, is complete self-delusion.

  5. Firefox says:
    Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 11:31 am

    ……Prisoners in Australia have been given a fair trial and have the luxury of knowing how long they will be incarcerated for.

    This is not true of the jurisdictions where 3-strikes sentencing applies. In these places arbitrary imprisonment is practiced, usually to the detriment of convicts of First Peoples heritage.

    We live in Green Valley, a quasi-despotic State, in which the capital is Blue-Town.

    Nothing will be done about this for as long as the Liberals together with their clones and allies run the place. This is very normal for this country, which is becoming steadily less hospitable to freedom and dignity as the years pass.

    This is what we must get used to. This of us who are discomposed by this have to suck it up. We are a rabble. There is nothing we can do about it without first changing ourselves. Since we are unwilling to do this, we have to take our share of the blame for the depravities. Suck it up.

  6. Firefox

    ‘Innocent asylum seekers who have committed no crime (seeking asylum in Australia is entirely legal, regardless of how someone turns up here or what information they do or don’t have with them) are treated worse than mass murderers.’

    How about responding to my actual post – which was about visa overstayers, not asylum seekers.

  7. B

    I understand why posting links to such things as expert commentary on issues and supplying germane facts is more troublesome for you than the words of self-opinionated, anonymous PBers who bloviate at great length.

  8. lizzie says:
    Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 12:05 pm
    briefly

    We owe the existence of our population of political internees to the Greens, who voted with their alter-egos, the Liberals, to defeat Labor’s Malaysia Solution.

    I agree with this statement, but the excuse for “Stop the Boats” was to prevent “even one death”, when the policy has caused many deaths in detention, is complete self-delusion.

    The deaths are deliberately produced. They are absolutely not accidental. They are predictable and they are wanted by the overseers of the gulag. They will use the suffering – the passion, really – of our hostages to further their political goals.

    We live in a semi-despotic State. There is no way back for us without changing the government. But those who would change the government have chosen self-defeat instead. We are fucked in Green Valley.

  10. beguiledagain says:
    Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 12:02 pm
    lizzie says:
    Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 11:03 am

    Simon Katich

    I have no idea why, but I have learned through PB that “surely” is verboten. Such a useful word, too.

    ——————————————-

    Would you stop calling me Shirley!!!

    🙂

    We surely can’t be blamed for your mispronunciation.

    The vowel sound is like the /aw/ in “saw”, not the /er/ as in “her”.

    Surely you can see that¿ 😆

  12. “‘Had the Greens voted with Labor and not against Labor in relation to the Malaysia Solution, a great many of our political prisoners would not be here.””

    That should be hung around the Greens necks FOREVER Shame Shame!.

  13. Pegasus says:
    Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 12:09 pm

    B

    I understand why posting links to such things as expert commentary on issues and supplying germane facts is more troublesome for you than the words of self-opinionated, anonymous PBers who bloviate at great length.

    Most posters would express an opinion or add an appraisal of the link.
    BK does this in his Dawn Patrol even though he posts dozens of links.

    It seems you give them little consideration and often fire a number off as quickly as you can.

  14. The Party That Launched a Thousand Denunciations of Labor.
    The Party That Fell in Love With Itself.
    The Party That is Against Wind Farms cos They Look Ugly.
    The Everlasting Birthday Party: Cake, Coke and Indigestion.

  15. Queen Victoria @Vic_Rollison
    ·
    18m
    Dick’s advice to Labor that they should have told voters franking credits go to the rich and that they don’t hurt pensioners is really helpful SINCE LABOR LITERALLY SAID THIS NON STOP EVERY DAY FOR THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN.

  16. lizzie says:
    Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 12:19 pm

    Barney

    But why is it funny? (I watched the clip.) I don’t speak American (sherly) either.

    It’s a famous joke from a movie called Flying High, which I assume is what you watched.

    It’s repeated again and again throughout the movie whenever someone says, “surely” to certain character.

    The silliness and the deadpan nature of the response tended to eventually tweet the funny bone for many.

  19. briefly:

    [‘The division that now characterises the Left means we might easily wait another century before electing another similar government.’]

    I don’t buy this. Labor’s in government in three states and the territories. Queensland is the key to a Labor victory, its volatility can be measured by the election of the Palaszczuk Government. In the absence of Palmer, probable at the next election now that his role in Queensland Nickle is before the courts, coupled with his lack of success at the last election, means that Labor will gain a portion of his former supporters, a reasonable preference flow from PHON. Moreover, Adani will be done and dusted.

    With Chalmers now Shadow Treasurer, Butler, Shadow Minister for the Environment and Water, the Shadow Cabinet should be on top of the issues affecting Queenslanders. It goes without saying that, evidenced by Dutton and Christensen, for example, increasing their primary vote, Labor’s election strategy up here was abysmal, admittedly not assisted by Brown’s convoy.

    I’m confident that Labor can win the next election.

  20. But why is it funny?

    Nobody said it is funny. Plenty of people find it funny. Explaining absurdist or surreal comedy isnt worth the effort – you either laugh or you dont. Try to explain why two grown men hitting each other with dead fish while dancing is funny.

    Airplane! was a critical and financial success… The film’s creators received the Writers Guild of America Award for Best Adapted Comedy, and nominations for the Golden Globe Award for Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy and for the BAFTA Award for Best Screenplay… The film was ranked sixth on Bravo’s 100 Funniest Movies.[8] In a 2007 survey by Channel 4 in the United Kingdom, it was judged the second greatest comedy film of all time, after Monty Python’s Life of Brian.[9] In 2008, it was selected by Empire magazine as one of The 500 Greatest Movies of All Time and in 2012 was voted number one in The 50 Funniest Comedies Ever poll. In 2010, the film was selected for preservation in the United States National Film Registry by the Library of Congress as being “culturally, historically, or aesthetically significant”

    wiki

  21. lizzie says:
    Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 12:33 pm

    Barney

    OK point taken. I suppose you had to be there. But it’s annoying that I can’t use the word. :sigh:

    Why would you stop using it?

    Surely, it’s a very useful word.

    Having seen the movie too many times in my youth it’s almost become a reflexive response every time I hear, read or write it. 🙂

  22. In 2010, the film was selected for preservation in the United States National Film Registry by the Library of Congress as being “culturally, historically, or aesthetically significant”

    OMG!

  23. lizzie says:
    Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 12:44 pm

    In 2010, the film was selected for preservation in the United States National Film Registry by the Library of Congress as being “culturally, historically, or aesthetically significant”

    OMG!

    Probably sums up a lot of the ’80s quite well! 😆

  25. In 2010, the film was selected for preservation in the United States National Film Registry by the Library of Congress as being “culturally, historically, or aesthetically significant”
    OMG!

    I was wondering if that was an example of absurdist humour. So I checked. Airplane sits alongside Ghostbusters, Top Gun, Die Hard and the excellent Tootsie (amongst many others).

  26. Pegasus:

    [‘The incessant myths and misrepresentations about the Greens, as well as the never-ending carping, whining and scapegoating of the Greens deserves some push back.’]

    If you weren’t to push the anti-Labor barrel to the extent you do, maybe there wouldn’t so much anti-Green rhetoric in response(?). If you’re a progressive, which I’m sure you are, it would be nice to see you criticise the Tories from time to time. Ditto Rex, et al.

  29. lizzie says:
    Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 12:48 pm

    Barney

    I shall now use ‘surely’ whenever I feel the need, and ignore the Pavlovian response, then.

    Congratulations and don’…

  30. Zoidlord says:
    Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 9:02 am

    They are Evil, just because it’s Labor state where they rejected the liberals doesn’t mean they should punish them:
    ———————–
    The Feds are right for a change, the state should not be bailing out these properties when these properties are or should be managed by owner corporations with insurance. The insurers should be paying for the new cladding.

  31. lizzie says:
    Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 12:53 pm

    @MySocialMedia6
    ·
    2h
    How do you write an article like this about refugee wait times and focus exclusively on the ‘Labor boats’ era and IGNORE 27000 ayslum seeker claims from plane arrivals last year alone.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/living-in-the-shadows-asylum-seekers-wait-years-for-protection-claims-20190716-p527pd.html

    Add the fact that the Government wants to privatise the issuing of Visas.

  35. “We owe the existence of our population of political internees to the chicanery of the Greens, who voted with their alter-egos, the Liberals, to defeat Labor’s Malaysia Solution.”

    Yeah, you’re damn right we voted against the abhorrent Malaysia “solution”, just as we voted against the abhorrent Pacific “solution” and all other “solutions” that involve kidnap, false imprisonment, and torture.

    To even suggest that the Greens and Liberals are somehow on the same side in this is just… Look, I’m sorry, I’m not normally this blunt, but it’s just fucking stupid in the extreme.

  37. a r
    I believe they are required to have insurance. The problem with billing the owners corporation is it would hurt the owner occupiers and renters while investors would just right it off as a negative gearing event. The reason it would hurt the renters is the same investors would use it as grounds to raise the rent and owner occupiers might be hurt if there needed to be a levy raised and they cannot right that levy off.

  41. “Lol, says carper, whiner and scapegoater-in-chief about Labor here.”

    C@t, while you haven’t totally lost the plot like Mr. Lib-kin and a few others here, you’re definitely very quick to jump on the Greens at any opportunity, regardless of whether it’s warranted or not.

  42. I luv youse all, but I’m still not laughing. Good try!!!

    Oh come on. I always imagined you as a Black Russian type of girl.

    I am still laughing at the Dukakis one. Especially with the parallels to our recent election.

  43. lizzie @ #190 Wednesday, July 17th, 2019 – 1:14 pm

    I luv youse all, but I’m still not laughing. Good try!!!

    Actually, it’s not all just slapstick. The idea spawns from the silliness of all nuns have guitars but moves onto the indifference to bad outcomes when you’re getting your jollies of thinking how good you are – the banging of all the heads with the guitar, the kid croaking cos the happiness freak ripped the IV out and doesn’t notice, so full of her goodness ……

    A lot of American humour had a moral thread, usually along the line of getting caught in the long run. I Love Lucy was a classic – she always got called out pulling a swifty.

  44. The reason it would hurt the renters is the same investors would use it as grounds to raise the rent

    In which case the renters should vacate to teach the investors a lesson. Investing in stuff means you risk taking a loss, not that you’re entitled to force everyone else to subsidize your losses.

    owner occupiers would be hurt as there would need to be a levy raised

    They’re ‘hurt’ in that they have to contribute to the cost of the remediation work, sure. But they’re also the primary beneficiaries of that work. They get safer living conditions and the value of their units recovers from “I’m not buying an apartment in that death-trap of a building!” to “I’ll pay as much for a unit here as I would for a unit in any other building”.

    So it’s like, user pays.

  45. Firefox,
    You wouldn’t be talking about the Afghanistan in 2019 that just fielded a cricket team for the World Cup?

    Or the Afghanistan of 2019 that has its own TV network that produces shows like ‘The Voice Afghanistan’ and other things like soap operas for the populace?

    Or the Afghanistan of 2019 that is accepting over 500000 Returnees from the region this year, as this report by the International Organisation for Migration (a group that The Greens love to quote when it suits them) have released:

    https://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/return-undocumented-afghans-weekly-situation-report-07-13-july-2019

    So, yes, I do have a heart and it is predisposed to a level playing field for all refugees having a fair go at getting residency in Australia, not just those from one particular country that seems, from all the available evidence to be settling down again.

    I also have a brain which doesn’t allow me to be gulled by false appeals to emotion. Maybe you should try it Firefox instead of being sucked in by professional outrage merchants like Adam Bandt.

  46. Firefox @ #191 Wednesday, July 17th, 2019 – 1:17 pm

    “Lol, says carper, whiner and scapegoater-in-chief about Labor here.”

    C@t, while you haven’t totally lost the plot like Mr. Lib-kin and a few others here, you’re definitely very quick to jump on the Greens at any opportunity, regardless of whether it’s warranted or not.

    That’s right. I’m simply trying to get you to see reason.

  47. ItzaDream

    Slapstick isn’t my thing. I just feel sorry for the ones getting hurt. Also, American ‘comedians’ telegraph their jokes too far ahead. (Drops head in hands.)

    S K
    Vodka with Kahlua sounds interesting but fattening. 🙂 I do drink vodka and prefer it to wine.

  48. C@t, you are aware that the war in Afghanistan continues even as I type this, yes? Australia is still at war in Afghanistan in 2019, as is the US and others. It is an ongoing conflict.

    A cricket team? Seriously? There’s a fucking WAR going on but you think it’s a safe place because they have a cricket team?

  49. We have the farthest right government in our history. And a divided left. Not only divided by hostile toward each other.

    Great.

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