In case you were wondering, The Australian reported on Monday that the first Newspoll since the election – indeed, the first poll on voting intention of any kind since the election, unless someone else quickly gets in first – will be published “very shortly”.
In the meantime, I offer what will be the first in a series of posts that probe deep into the results of the federal election region by region, starting with Sydney and some of its immediate surrounds. Below are two colour-coded maps showing the two-party preferred swing at polling booth level, with each booth allocated a geographic catchment area built out of the “mesh blocks” that form the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ smallest unit of geographic analysis (typically encompassing about 30 dwellings). The image on the right encompasses the core of the city, while the second zooms further out. To get a proper look at either, click for an enlarged image.
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In a pattern that will recur throughout this series, there is a clear zone of red in the inner city and the affluent, established eastern suburbs and northern beaches regions, giving way to an ocean of blue in the middle and outer suburbs. The occasional patches of red that break this up are often associated with sophomore surge effects, which played out to the advantage of Mike Freelander, who had no trouble retaining Macarthur (more on that below); Susan Templeman, who held out against a 2.0% swing in Macquarie; and Emma McBride, who survived a 3.3% swing in Dobell (albeit there was little to distinguish this from a 3.1% swing in neighbouring, Liberal-held Robertson).
The second part of our analysis compares the actual two-party results from the election with the results predicted by a linear regression model similar to, but more elaborate than, that presented here shortly after the election. This is based on the correlations observed across the nation between booth-level two-party results and the demography of booths’ catchment areas. The gory details of the model can be found here (the dependent variable being Labor’s two-party preferred percentage). The r-squared values indicate that the model explains 76.5% of the variation in the results – and doesn’t explain another 23.5%. Among the myriad unexplained factors that constitute the latter figure, the personal appeal (or lack thereof) of the sitting member (if any) might be expected to have a considerable bearing.
Such a model can be used to produce estimates that hopefully give some idea as to where the two parties were punching above and below their weight, and where the results were as we might have expected in view of broader trends. The latter more-or-less encompasses Lindsay, which was the only seat in the Sydney region to change hands between Labor and the Coalition (the only other change being Zali Steggall’s win over Tony Abbott in Warringah). The table below shows, progressively, the model’s estimate of Labor’s two-party vote, the actual result, and the difference between the two.
The first thing that leaps out is that the current leaders of both parties did exceptionally well, with their margins evidently being padded out by their substantial personal votes. Beyond that though, patterns get a little harder to discern. The Liberal-versus-independent contests in Warringah and Wentworth appear to have had very different effects on the Coalition’s two-party margins over Labor, which reduced to a remarkably narrow 2.1% as voters turned on Tony Abbott in Warringah, but remained solid at 9.8% in Wentworth, suggesting Dave Sharma may have accumulated a few fans through two recent campaigns and a dignified showing in the wake of the by-election defeat. That there was nonetheless a 7.9% two-party swing to Labor illustrates that he still has a way to go before he matches Malcolm Turnbull on this score.
The modelled result further emphasises the particularly good result Labor had in Macarthur, a seat the Liberals held from 1996 until 2016, when Russell Matheson suffered first an 8.3% reduction in his margin at a redistribution, and then an 11.7% swing to Labor’s Michael Freelander, a local paediatrician. At the May 19 election, the seat defied the national pattern in which outer urban seats that responded had unfavourably to Malcolm Turnbull swept back to the Liberals, with Freelander in fact managing the tiniest of swings in his favour. In addition to Freelander’s apparent popularity, this probably reflected a lack of effort put into the Liberal campaign, as the party narrowly focused on its offensive moves in Lindsay and Macquarie and defensive ones in Gilmore and Reid.
Have Morrison or Albanese said anything re this six year anniversary?
McKim has no shame.
They should have arrested McKim and kept him there until some third country offered him asylum. Maybe Venezuela. We don’t want PNG’s trash.
After all, he was an illegal.
I suspect that some who post here are paid to do so (as in part of their job) Nothing wrong with that but if they are they possibly should say so.
KK
Kristina Keneally Has Announced Her Support For Offshore Detention, And People Are Disgusted
June 2019: https://junkee.com/kristina-keneally-offshore-detention/208200
In 2015 she said:
Scott Ludlam:
https://twitter.com/abcnews/status/1135325995009957888”
“Keneally vs Dutton is a perfect match for those who like political blood sport”
and “do you folk understand that there is actual blood and this isn’t a fucking sport.”
After 27 years of virtue signalling there is progress. A few Greens senators now have their snouts in the trough.
Haw-haw Tony and “dark satanic mills”
First of all, it was the dark satanic mills that (eventually) freed billions of people from primary poverty.
Secondly, Blake’s emphasis was on what went on inside the mills, not what they looked like. And the principal problem with the mills were internal: industrial accidents, child labour and the combination of the two (children tasked with clearing the lines crushed to death by returning Spinning Jennys). Only pollution was an external problem, and people weren’t too concerned about that.
Haw-haw should know all this, he’s an expert is tracking down “industrial manslaugher” after all.
McKim should be nominated for Australian of the year.
We need more of his type of courageous leadership that fights for humanity in Australian policy.
Keeping Manus front and centre like McKim is doing in spending time with Behrouz Boochani is a good thing.
It adds resolve to the refugee agencies and their pro bono lawyers, like Mrs Shellbell, so as to advance the cases for removal. Those cases attract the friendly ears of the Federal Court and there is little resistance by government lawyers in that environment.
“What is Labor doing to get us out of here?”, Behrouz Boochani, a journalist and refugee imprisoned on Manus Island asked Keneally on Twitter.
Oh, oh. It looks as if the Greens have been misleading, using and abusing Mr Boochani!
Mr Boochani, Labor has done exactly the same as what the Greens have been doing for the past six years: nothing.
Because nothing is all you can do when you are in opposition.
A free hint for you Mr Boochani: the only people who can get you out are Mr Morrison and Mr Dutton. So perhaps you should direct your queries to them?
BTW, Mr Boochani, do not waste your time with the Greens stunts because, the way it works in practice is that the more the Greens stunt you in order to shame everybody else, the LESS LIKELY Dutton and Morrison are to let you out.
When anyone uses the phrase ‘virtue signalling’, you know that they have swallowed the RWNJ playbook, hook line and sinker.
It was probably developed by Textor Crosby, or similar organisation, and taken up with enthusiasm by every neocon news outlet here and overseas.
By their language you shall know them…
“I suspect that some who post here are paid to do so “
Where do I sign up?
Keane’s sometimes on the money:
Bernard Keane
@BernardKeane
Steve777 @ #961 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 2:22 pm
You need virtually unlimited keyboard time and the ability to repeat the same point incessantly, to the point of exhaustion.
The Greens hate the phrase ‘virtue signalling’ because signalling powerless virtue is all they’ve got. Apart from that in the post truth, post shame political universe, virtue signalling ain’t what it used to be.
Shaming words have lost their power. Grandstanding virtue stunts like McKim’s are meaningless – except where they further damage the chances of people like Boochani being released.
Talking virtue has been systemtically abused by the Greens for 27 years.
So the Greens are going to have to think of actually doing something. Talk is not an output. Rage is not an output. Shame is not an output. Tweets are not an output. Posts are not an output. Cutnpastes are not an output. Announcements are not an output. McKim’s stunt is not an output.
Kate
I suspect not.
(I was quite amused on one site, where I was constantly accused of this – my response was that I must be good…)
Pegasus @ #953 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 2:10 pm
LibNats and Lib lite unity ticket re the inhumanity of offshore torture brings utter shame on our country.
‘A free hint for you Mr Boochani: the only people who can get you out are Mr Morrison and Mr Dutton. So perhaps you should direct your queries to them?’
Excellent point. When the Greens are abusing you as a fulcrum to attack Labor and not Morrison and Dutton you have reached the nadir of your political meaning.
‘adrian says:
Friday, July 19, 2019 at 2:24 pm
Keane’s sometimes on the money:
Bernard Keane
@BernardKeane
It’s fascinating to read Press Gallery coverage of franking credits acknowledging what a rort it is, but devoting 80% to what Labor’s position is, and entirely ignoring the people actually in government.’
Exactly what the Greens do with Labor all the time. What is Keane’s problem?
On the Victorian Senate vacancy:
‘Ms Henderson is understood to have the support of a number of Victorian federal MPs including Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and his assistant, Michael Sukkar, as well former Liberal Party president Michael Kroger.
But the former backbencher is facing a tough fight to win the endorsement of the 500-odd delegates who will decide who gets the seat, with factional support firming behind former Liberal Country Vice-President Greg Mirabella, the husband of former Indi MP Sophie Mirabella.
Now the Prime Minister has thrown his support behind Ms Henderson…’
https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/national/pm-scott-morrison-supports-former-mp-sarah-henderson-to-take-victorian-senate-vacancy/news-story/1f98ffae89052014dd8dbe45acf1ac14
..I will point out that Greg Mirabella stood for one of the local councils, and was trounced.
Hendo is a Lib fem. I hope she has a kitchen.
Liberals don’t do women.
Gooooooorn.
Isn’t ScoLu cute?
He pretends that the Greens don’t do political blood sport.
So virtuous!
I think there’s a reasonable argument to dis-allowing a failed HoR nomination from filling a vacancy in the senate for a period of time (6 yrs ..?)
Boerwar says:
Friday, July 19, 2019 at 2:36 pm
I feel a signal coming on.
Isn’t ScoLu cute?
He pretends that the Greens don’t do political blood sport.
And then he gets outraged about political blood sports.
Oh truth! Oh shame!
Scolu, so virtuous!
Boerwar @ #965 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 2:28 pm
The only people who can rescue the tortured are the voters – and they know LibNats and Lib lite are on a unity ticket re the inhumanity.
Boerwar @ #964 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 12:27 pm
… and right wingers love it.
Boerwar @ #968 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 2:30 pm
His problem is with the media in Australia.
Unlike you, he is not obsessed with the Greens, and thus often makes interesting points.
Since its election loss, Albanese under Labor has pivoted big time towards appealing to the aspirational swinging voters in the marginal electorates who eschewed Labor for Hanson and the Coalition.
These subsets of voters generally don’t give a rats for the plight of asylum seekers and refugees. Over the decades both major parties have pandered to their xenophobia and racism by dog-whistling, demonising and dehumanising ‘the other’.
The Greens keep the issue to the forefront. The bipartisan policy of torture will only be overturned when the groundswell from the domestic community, and party internal pressures, as well as international pressures prove too overwhelming to be ignored.
Without such pressure nothing will change.
Adrian:
… but always on the sauce?
Rex Douglas @ #973 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 12:39 pm
I think there’s a more reasonable argument to be made for disallowing them permanently.
RD
snap!
Shellbell @ #960 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 2:16 pm
Exactly!
Shellbell
Indeed.
Pegasus @ #979 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 2:47 pm
McKim is showing rare leadership. An Australian parliamentarian to be proud of.
To suggest a courageous, resilient and intelligent individual as Behrouz Boochani is a pawn of McKim’s and the Greens is egregious to say the least.
A free hint for you Mr Boochani: the only people who can get you out are Mr Morrison and Mr Dutton. So perhaps you should direct your queries to them?
That’s cruel and supercilious. Free? Really? How generous. He’s nobody’s fool, and knows what’s going on here in minute detail. There is nothing else for him but what is going on here.
When Behrouz Boochani was asked by a young audience member at the (pre-election) Sydney Writers Festival as to what she or anyone could do to help (him), the swift reply was ‘to vote out the Govt’. There was within him the burning hope that Labor would be better, how ever small that better might be, or at the least, nothing could be worse.
I think he more than well realises that little can be achieved from opposition. But that does not stop the desperate from calling out “help, help me please”.
Boerwar @ #972 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 2:43 pm
It’s almost like you’re endorsing a LibNat and Lib lite cover-up of the inhumanity by attacking the whistleblowers…. ?
Apparently, the political discomfort of the two major parties overrides the fact human beings are being tortured.
Yes, they are supposed to just STFU, bend over and say “Please, sir, I want more.”
‘ItzaDream says:
Friday, July 19, 2019 at 2:52 pm
A free hint for you Mr Boochani: the only people who can get you out are Mr Morrison and Mr Dutton. So perhaps you should direct your queries to them?
That’s cruel and supercilious. Free? Really? How generous. He’s nobody’s fool,..’
I know that it is difficult to accept for the Greens but Morrison is the Prime Minister. So he can do stuff. Or not. He decides and stuff happens.
OTOH, Boochani is McKim’s tweet, post, instagram image, look-at-moi ticket.
McKim’s behaviour makes it more likely, not less likely, that Mr Boochani will spend all of the next three years inside because it makes it less likely that Morrison and Dutton will release Mr Boochani. And Morrison is the Prime Minister. He is the one with the power. Not McKim or the Greens.
Mr Boochani should know that the Greens are infinitely patient and will easily wait for another three years and another three years and another three years. Just like they have for the past 27 years.
LibNat and Lib lite voters need to understand that both parties aren’t going to change their policy of inhumanity re asylum seekers.
If those voters value humanity, they’ll have to shift their vote accordingly.
‘Pegasus says:
Friday, July 19, 2019 at 2:57 pm
Apparently, the political discomfort of the two major parties overrides the fact human beings are being tortured.
Yes, they are supposed to just STFU, bend over and say “Please, sir, I want more.”’
No,no, no. Do keep talking, texting, instagramming, posting, cutnpasting, announcing, denouncing, raging, shouting, convoying… the powerless virtue signalling of the Greens is a political sight to behold! I am sure the PM is quivering in his Hillsong shoes!
As Mr Morrison knows full well, Mr Boochani in part owes his situation to the Greens’ contribution to Mr Morrison’s election victory.
‘Pegasus says:
Friday, July 19, 2019 at 2:52 pm
To suggest a courageous, resilient and intelligent individual as Behrouz Boochani is a pawn of McKim’s and the Greens is egregious to say the least.’
Oh? Do you seriously think that Mr Boochani’s chances of release for the next three years have been increased by the McKim stunt? Really? If so, I have a ‘Free Boochani Convoy’ idea that I can sell you. For next to nothing.
Nothing is ever real world for the Greens. 27 years of words and not outputs gets you that way, I suppose.
2018 Human Rights Dinner keynote address by Behrouz Boochani
https://www.hrlc.org.au/news/2018/5/18/2018-human-rights-dinner-keynote-address-by-behrouz-boochani
“Without a doubt, Australian governments have enacted an extensive propaganda campaign which centres on a perverse account of these two notions. What should be a debate about people – about human beings, about children and families – has been deliberately poisoned to become a debate about borders and security. As a result, the governments playing this game have been able to manipulate and dictate the majority of public opinion, they have been able to strengthen their support base and galvanise others in support of their policies.
Both Labor and Liberal governments have accrued enormous political profit by using this tactic. Creating a false sense of national security by treating innocent victims of war and persecution as a security threat, and saying it is in the national interest to use any means to keep us out.
But how is it in the national interest to undermine Australia’s international reputation with these policies? And spend almost $9 billion to do it?
The fact is, Manus Island and Nauru are pivotal to elections in Australia. The two major political parties have been using the refugees on Manus Island and Nauru for their own ambitions. Our lives are a form of ritual sacrifice. The price they are prepared to pay for power.
:::
We cannot stop resisting. Until we are free our struggle will never end. Never forget what we have endured all these years, the consequences of physical, emotional and psychological pain and affliction will never end.
We cannot stop resisting.”
I believe people underestimate Anthony Albanese, especially in the media which lives in a bubble quite detached from mainstream of Australian society. I personally believe he will make a great prime minister, who can unite the country and restore people’s faith in our political class. His recent order for Labor MP’s not to call Coalition opponents liars, is a good strategy on Albanese’s part. Also Scott Morrison is respected, not terribly liked (expect among Conservative Christians). Plus Albanese has respect from people such as Bob Katter and Allan Jones.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/15/progressive-side-of-politics-must-not-retreat-into-comfort-zone-albanese-warns
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/05/anthony-albanese-on-how-mps-loneliness-feeds-parliaments-coup-culture
Anyway Australia would need to undergo an economic crisis like America, United Kingdon experienced during the Global Financial crisis, in order for a serious backlash against neoliberal economics to occur. That magnatune of an economic crash, would mean that the ‘aspirational voters’ will lose their jobs and even their homes on a big scale.
Lol, a Human Rights Dinner. An ego-stroking event for the comfortably permanently outraged.
I’ll believe they really care when they stop this sort of wankfest and go on a Hunger Strike.
I doubt the sleek and well-fed Greens Senators and the outrage machine that is Scott Ludlam will ever do that.
The last line of this article is interesting. It rather looks like Johnson, who spent May’s prime ministership trying to destroy May, may find that Tory discipline is shot.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/18/could-parliaments-latest-amendment-stop-no-deal-brexit
Tsk, tsk.
As a result of McKim’s stunting Mr Boochani faces another three years of resisting.
FDOTM on Newstart
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/19/one-of-the-ways-the-labor-party-are-working-on-losing-the-next-election-as-well