Call of the board: Sydney

Ahead of Newspoll’s apparently looming return, the first in a series that probes deep into the entrails of the May 19 election result.

In case you were wondering, The Australian reported on Monday that the first Newspoll since the election – indeed, the first poll on voting intention of any kind since the election, unless someone else quickly gets in first – will be published “very shortly”.

In the meantime, I offer what will be the first in a series of posts that probe deep into the results of the federal election region by region, starting with Sydney and some of its immediate surrounds. Below are two colour-coded maps showing the two-party preferred swing at polling booth level, with each booth allocated a geographic catchment area built out of the “mesh blocks” that form the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ smallest unit of geographic analysis (typically encompassing about 30 dwellings). The image on the right encompasses the core of the city, while the second zooms further out. To get a proper look at either, click for an enlarged image.

In a pattern that will recur throughout this series, there is a clear zone of red in the inner city and the affluent, established eastern suburbs and northern beaches regions, giving way to an ocean of blue in the middle and outer suburbs. The occasional patches of red that break this up are often associated with sophomore surge effects, which played out to the advantage of Mike Freelander, who had no trouble retaining Macarthur (more on that below); Susan Templeman, who held out against a 2.0% swing in Macquarie; and Emma McBride, who survived a 3.3% swing in Dobell (albeit there was little to distinguish this from a 3.1% swing in neighbouring, Liberal-held Robertson).

The second part of our analysis compares the actual two-party results from the election with the results predicted by a linear regression model similar to, but more elaborate than, that presented here shortly after the election. This is based on the correlations observed across the nation between booth-level two-party results and the demography of booths’ catchment areas. The gory details of the model can be found here (the dependent variable being Labor’s two-party preferred percentage). The r-squared values indicate that the model explains 76.5% of the variation in the results – and doesn’t explain another 23.5%. Among the myriad unexplained factors that constitute the latter figure, the personal appeal (or lack thereof) of the sitting member (if any) might be expected to have a considerable bearing.

Such a model can be used to produce estimates that hopefully give some idea as to where the two parties were punching above and below their weight, and where the results were as we might have expected in view of broader trends. The latter more-or-less encompasses Lindsay, which was the only seat in the Sydney region to change hands between Labor and the Coalition (the only other change being Zali Steggall’s win over Tony Abbott in Warringah). The table below shows, progressively, the model’s estimate of Labor’s two-party vote, the actual result, and the difference between the two.

The first thing that leaps out is that the current leaders of both parties did exceptionally well, with their margins evidently being padded out by their substantial personal votes. Beyond that though, patterns get a little harder to discern. The Liberal-versus-independent contests in Warringah and Wentworth appear to have had very different effects on the Coalition’s two-party margins over Labor, which reduced to a remarkably narrow 2.1% as voters turned on Tony Abbott in Warringah, but remained solid at 9.8% in Wentworth, suggesting Dave Sharma may have accumulated a few fans through two recent campaigns and a dignified showing in the wake of the by-election defeat. That there was nonetheless a 7.9% two-party swing to Labor illustrates that he still has a way to go before he matches Malcolm Turnbull on this score.

The modelled result further emphasises the particularly good result Labor had in Macarthur, a seat the Liberals held from 1996 until 2016, when Russell Matheson suffered first an 8.3% reduction in his margin at a redistribution, and then an 11.7% swing to Labor’s Michael Freelander, a local paediatrician. At the May 19 election, the seat defied the national pattern in which outer urban seats that responded had unfavourably to Malcolm Turnbull swept back to the Liberals, with Freelander in fact managing the tiniest of swings in his favour. In addition to Freelander’s apparent popularity, this probably reflected a lack of effort put into the Liberal campaign, as the party narrowly focused on its offensive moves in Lindsay and Macquarie and defensive ones in Gilmore and Reid.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,549 comments on “Call of the board: Sydney”

Comments Page 21 of 31
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  1. Haw Haw Abbott is by far the biggest virtue signaller in the history of Australian politics. It’s just that his concept of virtue is both unusual and constantly changing.

  2. I don’t think raising the rate of the Newstart payment is popular among the sort of people who decide elections in Australia. I predicted recently the rate of Newstart will be raised, when a high percentage of those people become unemployed.

  3. Plus Albanese has respect from people such as Bob Katter and Allan Jones.

    Oh well, in that case he’s a shoe-in, whatever he does or says.

  4. Would Nick McKim make a better leader for the Greens than Mr Richard ‘EmptySuit’ Di Natalie?

    McKim knows how to stay on message, is persistent and strikes me as a conviction politician. Everything RDN is not.

  5. Kate believes some of us are paid to post here? No payment would provide enough compensation for the angst of reading everything every day.

  6. @lizzie

    Especially if a severe recession or depression occurs and the Morrison government implements the sort of austerity measures which Britain has experienced. Although Scott Morrison is shrew and pragmatic enough to implement stimulus measures, in a bid to save the government from a massive defeat.

  7. Abbott is by far the biggest virtue signaller in the history of Australian politics. It’s just that his concept of virtue is both unusual and constantly changing.

    The right virtue-signals all the time. It’s just that their virtues aren’t all that…virtuous.

  8. Would Nick McKim make a better leader for the Greens than Mr Richard ‘EmptySuit’ Di Natalie?

    Would… ? … make a better leader for Labor than Mr Anthony ‘EmptySuit’ Albanese?

  9. ‘sprocket_ says:
    Friday, July 19, 2019 at 3:34 pm

    Would Nick McKim make a better leader for the Greens than Mr Richard ‘EmptySuit’ Di Natalie?

    McKim knows how to stay on message, is persistent and strikes me as a conviction politician. Everything RDN is not.’

    The Greens have just chosen Di Natale for another three years. He is young and should be good for another ten or so more elections.

  12. Boerwar @ #1005 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 3:38 pm

    ‘sprocket_ says:
    Friday, July 19, 2019 at 3:34 pm

    Would Nick McKim make a better leader for the Greens than Mr Richard ‘EmptySuit’ Di Natalie?

    McKim knows how to stay on message, is persistent and strikes me as a conviction politician. Everything RDN is not.’

    The Greens have just chosen Di Natale for another three years. He is young and should be good for another ten or so more elections.

    Will you vote for Lib lite at the next election knowing they are on a unity ticket with the LibNats re asylum seekers ??

  13. Wagga-based general practitioner Dr Trudi Beck, who has been central to a community push for the council’s climate emergency declaration, met McCormack at his office on 24 June.

    In notes she made immediately after the meeting, which she sent to McCormack and which were noted by a staffer who was present, Beck detailed comments made by the Riverina MP.

    “When asked if [McCormack believed] in climate change [he] stated that the climate has always been changing and made reference to various flood and drought events over the past 120 years,” the meeting notes say.

    “When asked what [McCormack] would make of data from meteorological agencies that 18 of the 19 hottest years on record have been in the last 18 years [he] suggested that earlier measurements of temperature by agencies such as the Bureau of Meteorology were not as accurately measured.”

    Beck and other community members in Wagga have begun “Fridays for the Future” demonstrations, where they picnic in a small park near McCormack’s office. Beck says the deputy prime minister told her she should abandon the actions and “do something useful like volunteer for Meals on Wheels instead”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jul/19/deputy-pm-michael-mccormack-accused-of-disputing-evidence-of-global-heating

  14. McKim’s occupations before snouting the trough were wilderness guide, advertising executive, and jailbird.

    So he certainly has the track record to be the Greens Leader: lots of talk and lots of time to talk in.

  15. From GP to MP: Who is Greens leader Richard Di Natale?

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/from-gp-to-mp-who-is-greens-leader-richard-di-natale

    and

    Qualifications and Occupations before entering Federal ParliamentMBBS (Monash University)

    MHS (La Trobe University)
    MPH (La Trobe University)
    FAFPHM (Australasian Faculty of Public Health Medicine)
    FACRRM (Australasian College of Rural and Remote Medicine)

    General Practitioner at Aboriginal Health Service (Tennant Creek, Northern Territory), Community Health (Brunswick and Fitzroy, Victoria) and rural locum work from 1996 to 2002.

    Public Health Registrar at the Department of Human Services from 2002 to 2005.

    International Public Health, Nossal Institute for Global Health, University of Melbourne from 205 to 2007.

    Farmer in the Otway Ranges, Victoria from 2007.

    Drug and Alcohol Clinician (Geelong, Victoria) from 2008.

    https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22handbook%2Fallmps%2F53369%22;querytype=;rec=0

    ———————-

    Anthony Albanese:

    Qualifications and Occupations before entering Federal Parliament

    BEc (University of Sydney)

    Bank officer 1980-81

    Research officer to the Minister for Local Government and Administrative Services, the Hon. T Uren, MP 1985-89

    Party official 1989-95

    Senior Policy Adviser to the Premier (NSW), the Hon. RJ Carr 1995-96

    https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id:%22handbook/allmps/R36%22

  21. Boerwar @ #1014 Friday, July 19th, 2019 – 3:45 pm

    McKim’s occupations before snouting the trough were wilderness guide, advertising executive, and jailbird.

    So he certainly has the track record to be the Greens Leader: lots of talk and lots of time to talk in.

    Smearing a courageous whistleblower ..?

    A tactic Dutton would vigorously approve of.

  22. Who employs these stupid people in NDIS assessment? Or do they simply have KPIs that ignore reality?

    @KittenFlower 53m

    They have me on Newstart because my hereditary, incurable, life-long disability might go away. Mum was on NewStart for months after her leg was amputated (in case it grew back?), and she was 61. There are many people on Newstart and they are ALL suffering.

  23. I wonder whether McKim is smart enough to know that he has made it more politically difficult for Morrison to release Boochani and that he has helped ensure that Boochani will be immured for another three years?

    Or is McKim just a displaced wilderness guide, out of his depth?

    McKim knew that he was always going to get out of PNG alive with a bit more political cred among the virtue signallers. Big Tick for McKim. The other 90% of Australians will mark him down as a ratbag but, hey!

    And at what cost to Boochani?

  24. IMO No previous work experience proves a person’s qualification to be a leader of a political party. You are either born with the talent or not. That’s why so many fail.

  26. Hi William. With no poll published since the election showing voting intentions it could be that the 2PP continues to show Labor leading. Very embarrassing for the first cab off the rank. I think the first poll has to show a 2PP lead for the Coalition. We could be waiting a while unless the sampling method has changed.

  29. Trump’s racist words and the ‘Send her back’ cheers were shocking if you’d never accepted who he is

    The president came to office with a consistent narrative of racial divisiveness and he never stopped.

    Donald Trump rose to power by fueling a consistent narrative that you’re either for America and for him, or you’re against him and against America, painting those who criticize him and his policies as fundamentally unpatriotic.

    All of this is just another example of the dangerous narrative Trump is perpetuating about who is really an American, and that should give all Americans pause

    Trump’s ability to weaponize patriotism is dangerous for America and will continue to further divide us.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trump-s-racist-words-send-her-back-cheers-were-shocking-ncna1031256

  30. Senator Murray Watt @MurrayWatt
    ·19s .
    @richardmcolbeck promised an “independent” inquiry into the disgraceful closure of Earle Haven nursing home. Now we learn it will be led by ex-Liberal Chief Minister, Kate Carnell. How can we be sure there’ll be no political interference?

    Family and friends of Earle Haven Nursing Home residents have blasted this morning’s meeting about the crisis as a “total waste of time.”

  31. P1

    Buckle up, people … things are likely to get ugly

    I hope the drought continues for at least 3 more years. Probably need 5 more years though before the locals wake up to the stupidity of who they keep voting for and options for us taxpayers baling them out have all gone. Vote 1 ! Nats. Enjoy the drought.Enjoy the dead MDB.

  32. poroti:

    It’s not just the Nationals that let down rural communities, but Liberals as well. The intransigence on reducing our GHGEs is just as tangible among rural Liberal MPs than it is Nats over east. Rick Wilson’s and Nola Marino’s electorates are increasingly drying, leaving farmers literally high and dry. Yet you never hear either of them talk about climate change, AGW or reducing our carbon emissions to try to mitigate these effects on landholders here.

  34. Sydney got a lot of rain in June but this barely penetrated 50 km inland. Away from the coast and the Snowy Mountains area, NSW is mostly bone dry.

  37. Still, WA is doing well in relation to rainfall as are parts of Western Victoria.
    It always rains more under Labor.

  39. Boerwar

    Visiting Darwin earlier this year the locals said it was a very dry Wet Season . Those that rely on collecting water in the Wet to get them through the Dry will be having an ‘interesting’ Dry Season.

  42. k
    Yep. If we think of the reverse then a few monsoon impacts of similar magnitude in India would create an interesting famine situation. Only a matter of time, IMO.
    Thank Christ the Greens have this one in hand.

  43. Boerwar

    If I had his job and did not get any death threats I would be sending death threats to myself. Anything to find an excuse to leave and be as far away as possible when the 50 megaton Brexit turd bomb goes off

  44. Well, we better put our guesses in for the Newspoll.
    2PP 53/47 to the Liberals.
    Morrison PPM 60
    Morrison net sat +10
    Albo net sat -20.
    Primary: Coalition 40 Labor 30 Assorted Rabble 20 Greens 10

  45. k
    Well, there is that. Still, giving death threat mongers a reward is not, IMO, a good idea.
    It’s a bit like pretending that the Greens will be the Government in 2050.

  47. Larissa Waters was a lawyer before she became a Senator. Applying the law to her dual citizenship status was probably her most confronting legal challenge.

  49. The last essential polling had Morrison leading Albanese 43-25, with 23% undecided. Scott Morrison’s approval rating was 48%, with a 36% disapproval rating and 16% undecided. Albanese’s had a 35% approval rating, 25% disapproval rating and 39% undecided.

  50. Please Enjoy Janet Rice Pulling Faces Behind Malcolm Roberts As He Says Stupid Shit

    https://junkee.com/janet-rice-malcolm-roberts/212345

    In any case, the bigger picture here was actually a motion to support Adani’s Carmichael coal mine project, which the entire Senate (except for the Greens) ended up voting to support. Black lung only came up in the first place because the Greens were pointing out a whole heap of reasons not to support the mine.

    “The Carmichael mine is not the way to deliver jobs for regional Queensland,” is how Greens senator Larissa Waters put it. “What it will deliver is more support to a tax-dodging multinational coal company, who have said they want to automate this project from pit to port. So, more robots, and if there are any workers then they’ll be suffering from black lung disease, which is back in Queensland as you well know, and starting to kill coal mine workers.”

    “Not to mention the fact that half of the reef has already been killed from climate change, which is driven and turbo-charged by coal. We can have jobs in the regions, we can have prosperity, we can keep the lights on, and also save the planet, if we actually fund renewable energy projects rather than coal projects.”
    :::
    The fact that the only part of that speech that Malcolm Roberts could argue against was the black lung bit is pretty telling. And the fact that the Senate went ahead and voted to support Adani anyway is, quite frankly, depressing. Thanks to Janet Rice for at least bringing a bit of levity to her protest today.

    Of course, some supporters of both major parties are keen to not provide context in order to propagate a meme against Janet Rice.

    Another unity ticket.

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