Essential Research leadership polling

A belated account of the first set of post-election leadership ratings, recording a victory bounce for Scott Morrison and a tentative debut for Anthony Albanese.

Contrary to expectations it might put its head above the parapet with today’s resumption of parliament, there is still no sign of Newspoll – or indeed any other polling series, at least so far as voting intention is concerned. Essential Research, however, is maintaining its regular polling schedule, but so far it’s been attitudinal polling only. The latest set of results was published in The Guardian on Friday, and it encompasses Essential’s leadership ratings series, which I relate here on a better-late-than-never basis. Featured are the first published ratings for Anthony Albanese, of 35% approval and 25% disapproval, compared with 38% and 44% in the pollster’s final pre-election reading for Bill Shorten.

To put this into some sort of perspective, the following table (click on image to enlarge) provides comparison with Newspoll’s debut results for opposition leaders over the past three decades. The only thing it would seem safe to conclude from this is that Albanese’s numbers aren’t terribly extraordinary one way or the other.

Scott Morrison’s post-election bounce lifts him five points on approval to 48%, with disapproval down three to 36%, and he leads Albanese 43-25 on preferred prime minister, compared with 39-32 for Shorten’s late result. Also featured are questions on tax cuts (with broadly negative responses to the government policy, albeit that some of the question framing is a little slanted for mine), trust in various media outlets (results near-identical to those from last October, in spite of everything), and various indigenous issues (including a finding that 57% would vote yes in a constitutional recognition referendum, compared with 34% for no). The poll was conducted June 19 to June 23 from an online sample of 1079.

Elsewhere in poll-dom:

• Australian Market and Social Research Organisations has established an advisory board and panel for its inquiry into the pollster failure, encompassing an impressive roll call of academics, journalists and statisticians. Ipsos would appear to be the only major Australian polling concern that’s actually a member of AMSRO, but the organisation has “invited a publisher representative from each of Nine Entertainment (Sydney Morning Herald/The Age) and NewsCorp to join the advisory board”.

• A number of efforts have now been made to reverse-engineer a polling trend measure for the last term, using the actual results from 2016 and 2019 as anchoring points. The effort of Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo at the University of Sydney was noted here last week. Mark the Ballot offers three models – one anchored to the 2016 result, which lands low for the Coalition in 2019, but still higher than what the polls were saying); one anchored to the 2019 result, designed to land on the mark for 2019, but resulting in a high reading for the Coalition in 2016; and, most instructively, one anchored to both, which is designed to land on the mark at both elections. Kevin Bonham offers various approaches that involve polling going off the rails immediately or gradually after the leadership change, during the election campaign, or combinations thereof.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,688 comments on “Essential Research leadership polling”

  1. Davidwh @ #1582 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 9:50 pm

    Happy to help Mavis.

    Basically all taxpayers who have a tax payable of at least the rebate amount will receive the rebate in full either as a refund of tax paid or a reduction of tax payable.

    What if they were going to get all their tax paid back because they were under the $18200 in a fiscal year earning threshold? Do they get bupkis?

  2. Mavis Davis @ #1587 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 9:57 pm

    C@tmomma:

    Whilst admiring you Labor credentials, I have to say that yours, Boerwar’s, breifly’s persistent antagonism towards the Greens is counterproductive – most, it seems, over it.

    But what say you to the sort of over the top posts by Greens supporters like ICANCU? Do they have licence to abuse US!?!

  3. Punters get sick of being lectured at.

    If it’s not Green Armies storming Queensland, it’s vegans invading private property, or homosexuals lecturing straights about who can bake a cake, or pronoun Nazis screaming about whether “he” or “she” is really “him”, “her” or “it”.

    There are too many rules being dumped on people who are basically decent but ultimately, if pressed, might be against same-sex marriage being legalized, might be in favour of Israel Folau consigning sinners to hell (as most of us have been at some stage in our lives without suffering PTSD over it), and could just possibly decide that they like the idea of Warragamba Dam having more water in it even if the World Heritage Environmental Rapporteur (or whomever) expresses disapproval.

    You might have good causes guys, but beating other people over the head with them, day-in, day-out, picking holes in everybody else’s behaviour (but your own) can get tiring to the poor sod on the receiving end.

  4. C@tmomma @ #1590 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 7:49 pm

    The Coalition had the numbers and there wasn’t a damn thing Labor could do about it.

    Labor had two choices:

    1) If they’re opposed to a piece of legislation but can’t stop it anyway, vote against it.
    2) If they’re opposed to a piece of legislation but can’t stop it anyway, abstain.

    Neither of these will stop the legislation, but will send a message that the party stands behind its stated principles.

    Being opposed to a piece of legislation and voting for it sends an entirely different message.

    I realise there’s three years to go until the next election, however Labor have got off to a shaky start. What it does for the next three years is going to be vital both for the party and the nation.

    I remain cautiously optimistic about their prospects, however that is not set in concrete.

  5. Hey BB,

    My thing is not fucking over generations of Australians with these ridiculous Tax Cuts supported by Labor.

    I’m so PC.

    For the most part I also enjoy your posts, but don’t accidentally conflate the anger tonight mate.

  6. Bushfire Bill @ #1602 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 10:07 pm

    Punters get sick of being lectured at.

    If it’s not Green Armies storming Queensland, it’s vegans invading private property, or homosexuals lecturing straights about who can bake a cake, or pronoun Nazis screaming about whether “he” or “she” is really “him”, “her” or “it”.

    There are too many rules being screamed at people who are basically decent but ultimately, if pressed, might be against same-sex marriage being legalized, might be in favour of Israel Folau consigning sinners to hell (as most of us have been at some stage in our lives without suffering PTSD over it), and could just possibly decide that they like the idea of Warragamba Dam having more water in it even if the World Heritage Environmental Rapporteur (or whomever) expresses disapproval.

    You might have good causes guys, but beating other people over the head with them, day-in, day-out, picking holes in everybody else’s behaviour (but your own) can get tiring to the poor sod on the receiving end.

    Just because your standards of decency may be slipping doesn’t mean others have to conform to it.

  7. I still believe that framing the rebates as “cuts” is going to bite big time. When people hear tax cuts, as portrayed by just about everyone especially the media, then get their pay packets and see the same amount of tax is still being deducted and they’ll have to wait until the end of the financial year to get anything back, they’re not going to be happy.

    In the meantime while they wait for a year to get anything back, the bills keep going up and up and up.

  8. Davidwh @ #1599 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 10:10 pm

    C@t my understanding is no rebate refund unless you have paid tax or have a tax liability.

    Thanks, dwh. However, I was considering the fact that my son hasn’t been working for long enough to have earned >$18200 but has had tax taken out of his earnings. Will he only get back what he has paid if it is <$1080?

  9. C@tmomma:

    [‘But what say you to the sort of over the top posts by Greens supporters like ICANCU? Do they have licence to abuse US!?!’]

    You’re a Labor warrior, and for that, you deserve much credit – you certainly have mine. But the common enemy is the Tories. We should combine our efforts to defeat them, even if the Greens behave at times obstreperously, provocatively. But the utterings of a couple of posters bore the pants off most.
    I can’t take it much further than that.

  10. – – Punters get sick of being lectured at. – –
    Poor sods. Must be awful.

    Well, the environment is sick of being completely screwed up, constant clearing and broadscale destruction for a hundred+ years. And now not even the last refuges, a World Heritage area no less, is safe from the incessant pillage.

    When the fuck is enough enough?

  11. DanG,
    The scenario I laid out the other day still applies. If Labor had voted against or abstained from the vote on the Tax Cuts, Morrison would have called a Division so that he could name and shame every single ALP MP at the next election as being against giving the punters a windfall. That’s all the punters would understand and Labor understood that too.

    So Labor put up its Amendments by way of showing their bona fides. It sucks that they couldn’t do more but they would have made themselves a very big target for the next 3 years if they had done it.

  12. Watching commercial TV tonight while scanning PB, a weather site and news sites. The Daily Telecrap is advertising heavily. Apparently they’re for Rupert Sydney. Building up a friendly image.

    They don’t normally do it. Are they losing customers? Trying to rebuild after their disgraceful biased reporting, fake news and outright lies during the recent election campaigns (NSW and Federal)?

  13. The scenario I laid out the other day still applies. If Labor had voted against or abstained from the vote on the Tax Cuts, Morrison would have called a Division so that he could name and shame every single ALP MP at the next election as being against giving the punters a windfall. That’s all the punters would understand and Labor understood that too.

    Labor has to fight if they want to win. If they can’t win the fight that government is good, that the wealthy should pay taxes and that public health, infrastructure and public education should be funded, then there is absolutely no point to having Labor. If you want to destroy Government and have a society for the wealthy that uses and kills the poor then you want the experts in the LNP to do it.

    The cuts for the wealthy gave Labor a chance to campaign strongly for three years for the votes of the Australians they are supposed to support. Instead they backed trickled down, they backed LESS and WORSE public health, public education and infrastructure. They backed the big end of town against the average Australian. They should all lose their seats their is not point in backing them.

    Also strongly opposing everything the other side has done has clearly won 2 of the last three Australian elections. Weak and tricky, flip flop and pathetic leadership hasn’t won an election in more than 50 years. Put Albo in the ‘never and Australian PM’ column now. Likely the next ALP leader isn’t even in the current crop of spineless neoconservative trickle down believing ALP jellyfish.

  14. C@t apply that to every thing that the Liberal party ever do…

    Make Labor look bad.

    The media aren’t going to give a shit if it’s a good tactic btw, see; Last Election (2019).

    If you think Labor not having a Lib attack line that hurts them because of the adroit way they deal with this will mean something…

    See the last election results.

    And then chuck in a few more bits and bobs.

    Death Taxes.

    Pensioners thinking they will lose money cos they won’t get their franking credits (that they didn’t have).

    ScuMo going Trump and making things even more tribal.

    Stop thinking there is a fairness in our system….

    Fight!

  15. Steve777 @ #1608 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 10:31 pm

    Watching commercial TV tonight while scanning PB, a weather site and news sites. The Daily Telecrap is advertising heavily. Apparently they’re for Rupert Sydney. Building up a friendly image.

    They don’t normally do it. Are they losing customers? Trying to rebuild after their disgraceful biased reporting, fake news and outright lies during the recent election campaigns (NSW and Federal).

    Don’t know. It sounds similar to previous efforts to my eyes. On the other hand, the odious Anna Caldwell, author of the Bill Shorten’s mother story that appeared on the front page of the paper pre-election, was the one churning out the ‘Labor better not get between the punters and their tax cut’ stories this past week. So not much has really changed as far as the attitudinal bias and content of said paper as far as I can see.

  16. Hey, I heard one could get cranking credits even if one has never paid tax because it’s for losers. Maybe if one paid one’s accountant just a little less so one’s tax bill were just $1080 one could claim the rebate in full!

  17. Sigil,
    I do fight. Damn hard. I fight Tories mostly but if The Greens keep attacking Labor then needs must I fight them too.

    How do you tell the difference between tories and Albo and the spineless tickle down jellyfish? Oh the tories are the ones not on their knees begging for crumbs that will never come.

  18. Re Sprocket @10:06 – Rowe cartoon.

    I’m sure there’s an internet slang acronym or emoticon which would be an appropriate response.

  19. How do you tell the difference between tories and Albo and the spineless tickle down jellyfish? Oh the tories are the ones not on their knees begging for crumbs that will never come.
    _______________
    Shorten was promising a similar tax cut ffs. If he had won and implemented it you would have been probably praising it for reducing bracket creep.

  20. Messrs. Howard and Keating both knew that Capital Gains Tax is the main game for income tax in relation to both growth in the real economy and inequality, though obviously they adopted different actions in response.

    Messrs. Crean and Beazley apparently didn’t know, and basically waved the CGT discount through, with disastrous consequences for growth in the real economy (hence wages), as well as for inequality.

    It seems this blog is populated mostly by people of the Beazley/Crean level of understanding.

  21. Sigil says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 10:55 pm

    Nath,

    Can you explain how the legislated big tax cuts were similar to Bill Shorten’s?
    ________________________
    they exceeded them at the lower end of the scale. Has the ALP never passed a tax cut for higher income earners? of course they have.

  22. BB
    It does not matter. Humans will be extinct in 200 years. Maybe sooner. It is basically too late to do anything and certainly, with right-wing morons being voted in power all over the democratic world, we will not start to do anything about Anthropogenic Global Warming in the next decade. If Australia has a Pentacostal nutter for a PM, the world really has gone to shit.

    Go get some good alcohol, dope, drugs or whatever takes your fancy and keep on dancing while the Titanic goes down. Or practice Mindfulness, or colour in a picture, whatever techniques takes your mind off the extinction of our species.

    But at least it is fair, as we are causing a grand extinction event for everything else.

    Does it really matter what Labor does? If people are too disinterested, selfish and/or stupid to save their own species what is the bloody point?

  23. Shorten’s tax cut policy at the 2019 fed election:

    https://theconversation.com/compare-the-pair-key-policy-offerings-from-labor-and-the-coalition-in-the-2019-federal-election-116898

    future tax cuts: Labor will reverse the Coalition income tax cuts planned for 2022 and 2024, replacing them with tax cuts worth around $200 billion over ten years when the budget position has improved

    temporary budget repair levy: Labor will reimpose the temporary budget levy of 2% on incomes above $180,000 imposed by the Coalition in between 2014-15 and 2016-17. It will remain in place until the budget surplus has reached 1% of GDP, which is expected in 2022-23

    low and middle-income tax rebate: Labor will support and extend (for those on lower incomes) the Coalition’s Low and middle-income tax rebate of up to $1,080 due to be paid from July 2019 backdated to July 2018.

  24. the point is that the tax cuts that the government has passed and which relate to this term, Shorten supported. The next stages don’t come in until after the next election so is this just a reasonable way of dealing with bracket creep?

  25. I think that dubious deductions are far more important than the tax rates which remain fairly progressive. There are a whole range of deductions that are ridiculously overly generous.

  26. PuffyTMD says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 11:05 pm

    BB
    It does not matter. Humans will be extinct in 200 years. Maybe sooner.
    ____________________________
    Too late to change the name of this blog to Doom Bludger?

  27. Nath;

    they exceeded them at the lower end of the scale. Has the ALP never passed a tax cut for higher income earners? of course they have.

    I’m sure they have, but that wasn’t I asked.

    The high income tax cuts are a disaster from a budget position.

    I know you don’t like the Labor party (and I don’t either right now), but just saying they did something sorta the same half a decade (and then decades ago when they were last in govt) doesn’t really feel like a robust position.

    Especially when referring to my main point, that it is a disaster and will hurt people for decades.

    You sound like a troll mate 🙂

  28. You sound like a troll mate
    ____________
    Nah. I just recognize that periodically government needs to address bracket creep. I would crack down on deductions big time. Plus I would not have spent 50 billion on submarines and put that in health and education.

  29. APO on tax cuts and bracket creep

    https://apo.org.au/node/243611

    This analysis of the long term impacts of bracket creep shows that taxpayers are being over compensated for bracket creep at all income levels. The Morrison Government has used bracket creep as a key reason why it needs to implement its income tax cuts package as outlined in the 2019 Budget.

    Key findings:

    The report analysed the impact of bracket creep from 00-01 to 24-25 to create a bracket creep baseline that is a hypothetical tax rate if bracket creep had been removed and compared that to the current rate of tax

    Comparing the proposed income tax rates in 2024-25 to the bracket creep baseline, shows all income levels are over-compensated for bracket creep.

    If the government’s proposed stage 3a tax cuts are implemented, overcompensation would rapidly rise for those earning more than $95,000 per annum

    Someone earning $60,000 a year is $1,919 a year better off when compared to the bracket creep baseline. Someone on $200,000 is $19,785 better off than the bracket creep baseline.

  30. Humanity will probably muddle through the next 200 years but it won’t be pretty. Worse than any ‘carbon tax’. Worse than than a power price increase, (if action increased prices which it probably won’t). Worse on Central Queensland than losing several hundred jobs. Maybe worse than the Great Plague of the 14th century.

    The Plutocrats and their line will mostly make it through.

  31. I doubt humans will be extinct in 200 years. I fully support the need to tackle climate change but going around saying we will be extinct in ten years or whatever just opens the door to the deniers to say yep heard that before. This planet has sustained life with higher carbon levels not that we should use that as an excuse to not reduce our carbon use.

  32. There is a new report that cutting our emissions is a total waste of time.
    Earth to be baked by natural shift of the sun.
    A natural sun cycle will add 2.5C warming to the Earth’s climate in coming centuries.
    A Scientist in Britain has long argued the impact of variations in solar activity have been underestimated in climate models.
    She has studied on a 2000-year cycle that varies the distance between the Earth and the sun.
    Over a period of 2000 years, the sun’s magnetic field as measured from the Earth, fluctuates, increasing and decreasing in strength. In its current cycle of movement, the sun is slowly moving towards the aphelion of the Earth’s orbit – the point of orbit furthest away from the sun.
    This will result in the Earth’s orbit becoming more circular, increasing the amount of solar energy to hit the surface of the Earth.
    According to research, this movement will occur over the next 600 years and will slowly lead to an increase in the average terrestrial temperature by about 2.5C.
    The latest research says we are now in the growing, or warming phase of the current cycle which is expected to reach its peak by the year 2600.
    By this time, the temperature on Earth is expected to have increased by between 2.5 and 3C.
    This rise is due to happen in addition to any rise related to man-made activity such as carbon dioxide emissions.
    The GREENS just lost 10% of the national vote (the lot) and Labor are in more strife with 50% emission targets.

  33. Labor voting for the tax cuts for the top end was spectacularly dumb, and it will backfire. Fear of the media and the LNP using it as an attack point at the next election is stupid. They will attack anyway. If they can’t find something real to attack with, they’ll make something up (see last election). A large section of the public, including the left leaning base see the ALP as piss weak opportunistic sellouts. Today’s senate vote validates their opinion.

    Grow a spine. You’ll have a better chance of winning people back that way.

  34. Labor voted for tax cuts. They have called for more cuts. This is the very least the economy requires right now. The Greens and the Liberals are as one on the economy – in their book, there will be no relief for working people, for the unemployed, the under-employed, the precariously placed.

    It is a matter of considerable pride to me that Labor voted to support the economy.

    The Greens can go fuck themselves. They are no friends of working people. They are Lib-like.

  35. A natural sun cycle will add 2.5C warming to the Earth’s climate in coming centuries.
    A Scientist in Britain has long argued the impact of variations in solar activity have been underestimated in climate models.
    She has studied on a 2000-year cycle that varies the distance between the Earth and the sun.
    Over a period of 2000 years, the sun’s magnetic field as measured from the Earth, fluctuates, increasing and decreasing in strength. In its current cycle of movement, the sun is slowly moving towards the aphelion of the Earth’s orbit – the point of orbit furthest away from the sun.
    This will result in the Earth’s orbit becoming more circular, increasing the amount of solar energy to hit the surface of the Earth.
    According to research, this movement will occur over the next 600 years and will slowly lead to an increase in the average terrestrial temperature by about 2.5C.
    The latest research says we are now in the growing, or warming phase of the current cycle which is expected to reach its peak by the year 2600.
    By this time, the temperature on Earth is expected to have increased by between 2.5 and 3C.
    This rise is due to happen in addition to any rise related to man-made activity such as carbon dioxide emissions.

    If we assume all of that is exactly accurate as written, all you’ve done is provide more reason to vote Greens (or for whichever party has the strongest emissions policy).

    If variation in solar irradiation is going to provide 2.5-3C of warming on its own, then we wouldn’t just need to cut emissions. We’d need to stop them entirely and also take a bunch of carbon out of the atmosphere.

  36. Steve777 @ #1642 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 11:03 pm

    Humanity will probably muddle through the next 200 years but it won’t be pretty. Worse than any ‘carbon tax’. Worse than than a power price increase, (if action increased prices which it probably won’t). Worse on Central Queensland than losing several hundred jobs. Maybe worse than the Great Plague of the 14th century.

    The Plutocrats and their line will mostly make it through.

    Nope. Madame Guillotine, methinks. I hope none of my descendants are among the super-rich.

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