The first pollster to put its head above the parapet post-election has been Essential Research, though it’s sensibly refraining from treating us to voting intention results for the time being. As reported in The Guardian yesterday, the pollster’s fortnightly survey focused on what respondents did do rather than what they would do, finding 48% saying their decision was made well in advance of the election, 26% saying they made up their mind in the weeks before the election, and 11% saying they made up their mind on polling day. Lest this seemingly high rate of indecision be cited as an alibi for pollster failure, the historical results of the Australian National University’s Australian Election Study – which you can find displayed on page 18 here – suggest these numbers to be in no way out of the ordinary.
The poll also found those who decided in the final weeks came down 40% for the Coalition and 31% for Labor. However, assuming the sample for this poll was as per the Essential norm of between 1000 and 1100 (which I hope to be able to verify later today), the margin of error on this subset of the total sample would have been over 5%, making these numbers statistically indistinguishable from the almost-final national primary vote totals of 41.4% for the Coalition and 33.3% for Labor. This goes double for the finding that those who decided on election day went Coalition 38% and Labor 27%, remembering this counted for only 11% of the sample.
Perhaps notable is a finding that only 22% of respondents said they had played “close attention” to the election campaign, which compares with results of between 30% and 40% for the Australian Election Study’s almost equivalent response for “a good deal of interest in the election” between 1996 and 2016. Forty-four per cent said they had paid little or no attention, and 34% some attention. These findings may be relevant to the notion that the pollsters failed because they had too many politically engaged respondents in their sample. The Guardian reports breakdowns were provided on this question for voters at different levels of education – perhaps the fact that this question was asked signifies that they will seek to redress the problem by weighting for this in future.
Also featured are unsurprising findings on issue salience, with those more concerned with economic management tending to favour the Coalition, and those prioritising education and climate change favouring Labor and the Greens.
In other post-election analysis news, the Grattan Institute offers further data illustrating some now familiar themes: the high-income areas swung against the Coalition, whereas low-to-middle income ones went solidly the other way; areas with low tertiary education swung to the Coalition, although less so in Victoria than New South Wales and Queensland.
Another popular notion is that Labor owes its defeat to a loss of support among religious voters, as a hangover from the same-sex marriage referendum and, in what may have been a sleeper issue at the cultural level, the Israel Folau controversy. Chris Bowen said in the wake of the defeat that he had encountered a view that “people of faith no longer feel that progressive politics cares about them”, and The Australian reported on Saturday that Labor MPs believed Bill Shorten blundered in castigating Scott Morrison for declining to affirm that he did not believe gay people would go to hell.
In reviewing Labor’s apparent under-performance among ethnic communities in Sydney and Melbourne, Andrew Jakubowicz and Christina Ho in The Conversation downplay the impact of religious factors, pointing to a precipitous decline in support for Christian minor parties, and propose that Labor’s promised expansion of parental reunion visas backfired on them. Intended to capture the Chinese vote in Chisholm, Banks and Reid, the actual effect was to encourage notions of an imminent influx of Muslim immigrants, “scaring both non-Muslim ethnic and non-ethnic voters”.
However, I’m not clear what this is based on, beyond the fact that the Liberals did a lot better in Banks than they did in neighbouring Barton, home to “very much higher numbers of South Asian and Muslim residents”. Two things may be said in response to this. One is that the nation’s most Islamic electorate, Watson and Blaxland, recorded swings of 4% to 5% to the Liberals, no different from Banks. The other is that the boundary between Banks and Barton runs right through the Chinese enclave of Hurstville, but voters on either side of the line behaved very differently. The Hurstville pre-poll voting centre, which serviced both electorates, recorded a 4.8% swing to Labor for Barton, and a 5.7% swing to Liberal for Banks. This may suggest that sitting member factors played an important role, and are perhaps of particular significance for Chinese voters.
mundo @ #1600 Saturday, June 8th, 2019 – 4:32 pm
That’s not the point I was making, smartarse.
Besides, try to spot the logical fallacy in your statement.
The jury found the complainant’s testimony extremely credible.
The defendant is claiming that the complainant is either lying or delusional. I hope that the appellate court gives short shrift to this desperate appeal.
Big A
There’s a lot of wisdom in hindsight. After all, single seat polling was dismissed not just by posters here, but by the pseph community.
Unfortunately, I don’t know of anyone who predicted the result correctly, for the right reasons.
I seem to be hearing an awful lot of analysis from people who didn’t see the result coming, and started out by accepting the same data as the rest of us (and Labor) relied on.
Well my hairdresser and some of the customers in the salon today were shocked by the election result. Last time I saw her it was 3 weeks to go until the election and she, like me, was accepting of a Labor win. Today we were all saying how incredible it was Labor lost.
I wonder how many voters decided to give Labor a kick over some of its policies, thinking it was safe to do so because of the wide ranging belief they were a shoo-in to win? Discretion prevented me from asking this question of the other women having their hair and nails done.
…of course, the cracker when it comes to the poll analysis is that we don’t know when they went off the rails. The only straws we can look at is the actual election result itself, and conclude that something went very wrong in both Queensland and WA.
Other than that, anyone can put up a case that their favorite bugbear was The Deciding Thing and it’s hard to argue against it.
adrian @ #1601 Saturday, June 8th, 2019 – 4:35 pm
People found guilty by a jury have later been found to have been innocent.
That never happened, oh, wait….
ICanCYu:
The senate first preference data by division are available on the AEC web site and the house data have been available for a long time . This is a psephology blog and analysing such data ought to be its stock in trade. Such analysis—e.g of swings per division (both house and senate) in relation to the various Queensland issues, including social media targeting, coal mining and anti-Adani—would certainly be more persuasive than ‘wondering’
zoomster @ #1605 Saturday, June 8th, 2019 – 4:57 pm
Are we still talking about this….jeez.
The Liberal party ran a killer ad campaign that scared the shit out of enough voters to win them the election.
There.
Entrails examined.
Next.
It’s not difficult mundo, but probably beyond you, considering that your stock in trade seems to be pointlessly repetitious snark.
Jokovich
adrian @ #1609 Saturday, June 8th, 2019 – 5:05 pm
Repetition.
That’s what Labor needs.
I want to here someone from Labor out there every day banging on about the shit state of the coalitions economy.
It’s not difficult.
But probably beyond them.
mundo @ #1600 Saturday, June 8th, 2019 – 4:32 pm
George Pell is an evil person, who has deliberately inflicted intolerable personal psychological pain on thousands of Australian victims of his so-called church, and their families. The idea that he did not know what was happening in Ballarat schools, when he was intimately involved in deciding which priests were to be moved, and from which school to which new hunting ground school, is ludicrous.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-07/george-pell-facing-new-legal-fight-child-sex-abuse-civil-claims/11191092
“Pell was the episcopal vicar for education in the Ballarat diocese from 1973 to 1984.
Dowlan is serving jail time for abuse he admitted committing (in Ballarat and other schools) between 1971 and 1988.”
Pell was the secretary of the meeting in which it was decided to move Dowlan from St Patricks, Ballarat to Warrnambool Christian Brothers College in 1974.
I personally have no clear opinion on whether Pell carried out the act for which a jury has unanimously found him guilty. I am, though, absolutely certain that he is a thoroughly nasty, vindictive, warped human being, who has indirectly caused the painful, hopeless deaths of many Australians, through his actions in calling victims liars to their faces, defending the indefensible, and viciously dismissing the concerns of decent people that foolishly trusted HIS “church” over many decades.
The truth has come out. The Roman Paedophile Protection Society has been revealed for what it always was, and still remains (a self serving criminal organisation, and a money sink for the gullible), and Pell rots in gaol. If they let him out, I am quite sure that he won’t show his repulsive countenance in public very often. As they say, I wouldn’t piss on him if he was on fire.
ICYMI, here’s my article on my personal website about the left winning the Danish election, and other interesting things.
http://adrianbeaumont.net/left-wins-danish-election-new-israeli-election-german-greens-surge-to-tie-for-lead-left-gains-in-tas-upper-house/
A new Israeli election will be held in Sept after Netanyahu was unable to form a govt.
The German Greens have surged into a tie for the lead with the conservative CDU/CSU.
The left gained a seat in the Tas upper house at May’s periodical elections.
Trump wouldn’t recognise British politeness hiding revulsion, of course. He’s just pitiful.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/07/trump-uk-state-visit-people-had-never-seen-the-queen-have-a-better-time
I hope mundo gets sick of us. Soon.
Jackol:
I think this is mostly true, but with following exceptions (which are areas in which Libs both propose radical change and in which their proposed changes are detrimental to large numbers of people):
– Medicare (and MediScare) – the Libs campaigned openly to abolish Medicare in 1984, 1987, 1990 and 1993 and lost each time, then they switched to lower key policy statements and undermining after they won government in 1996. But even the undermining was visible enough to allow the proposed payments handling privatisation to revivify the suspicion that they wished to abolish Medicare (as they likely do, though I’m not really sure why) and hence MediScare worked
– WorkChoices – the Libs got control of the Senate in 2004 and implemented WorkChoices without notice, and got creamed. Presumably they won’t again be that stupid anytime soon. But it may well remain an issue on which they are vulnerable.
And the really interesting one is super and related issues such as dividend imputation:
– the ALP invented these for the public benefit (and should own the issue). The Libs then undermined them via transformation from “pension provision” into ‘wealth creation’ (via tax avoidance rather than by economic development). Allowing this and some other economic policies (e.g CGT) to be undermined was by far the worst failing of the ALP under Beazley and Crean (who were both “dills” economically, rather than “smart people”) and has had devastating consequences for the non-mining real economy in Australia, which have proven extremely durable and will result in deteriorating economic performance (ex mining) until finally they are stopped once all possible alternatives have been tried and have failed. The problem of course is that the Libs undermining in this case provides a sugar hit for a small but significant number of voters, paid for (many times over) over an extremely long term by the rest, and it’s hard to get attention to this long term downside…
Considering Trump’s prior boasts about how well his infamy allows him to ‘connect’ with women, I’d say the Queen dodged a bullet. 😆
In the end, it seems that Australians (not just the CPG) give the Coalition a lot more latitude than Labor ever gets. The Coalition have mismanaged systems that are more significant (if not vital) than “school halls and pink batts”, and in so many areas: environmental, scientific, technological, social, civil, economic, etc. Yet somehow the responsibility is never theirs.
‘ICanCU says:
Saturday, June 8, 2019 at 1:19 pm
The Greens did well in Qld Senate – up 3.1% at the moment. ‘
Excellent point. Prime Minister in waiting Di Natale will only take another 120 years at the current rate of progress for the first Greens government to be sworn in.
This government will, of course, fix everything.
Patience is a virtue.
Gawd.
I do hope nobody is suggesting Trump grabbed the Queen’s…
Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo…
Seems Shields got it wrong.
Boerwar
It was the perfect time for Prince Phillip to insult someone, but he wasn’t there.
Katherine Murphy’s Twitter thread on the Death Tax Scare campaign:
Boerwar,
Corgi? 😉
DisplayName @ #1618 Saturday, June 8th, 2019 – 5:34 pm
Because they are masters at getting on the front foot to deflect blame elsewhere.
Thanks for that C@t. This aligns with what zoomster has said about Labor’s actions on the matter. And how unsurprisement that the fake news started with the Daily Telegraph!
‘fess,
And how unsurprisement that the fake news started with the Daily Telegraph!
And the conservative echo chamber of Sunrise amplified it.
mundo says:
Saturday, June 8, 2019 at 4:59 pm
adrian @ #1601 Saturday, June 8th, 2019 – 4:35 pm
mundo @ #1600 Saturday, June 8th, 2019 – 4:32 pm
adrian @ #1598 Saturday, June 8th, 2019 – 4:30 pm
TPOF @ #1596 Saturday, June 8th, 2019 – 4:11 pm
Nicholas says:
Saturday, June 8, 2019 at 2:25 pm
The evidence of George Pell’s guilt was extremely compelling.
_____________________________
Were you on the jury? Or are you the judge or courtroom staff? Otherwise you would have no basis on which to make such an assertion.
It’s a reasonable conclusion to come to, based on the fact that he was convicted by a jury and found guilty of the sexual assault of a minor.
No innocent person has ever been found guilty by a jury..oh, wait..
That’s not the point I was making, smartarse.
Besides, try to spot the logical fallacy in your statement.
People found guilty by a jury have later been found to have been innocent.
That never happened, oh, wait….
______________________________
My cut and paste has lost its formatting – which is a pretty fair metaphor for the debate above. My concern with Nicholas’s original comment did not go to any issue about the validity of the jury’s verdict, but the fact that only the jury could find it was compelling – not Nicholas or me. Nobody outside the courtroom had even a smattering of ALL the evidence.
Arguing whether juries get it right or wrong (spoiler: they usually though not always get it right in a fairly conducted trial) is totally beside the point.
C@t
That seems to be part of it. They’re good at centralising power while decentralising responsibility.
The other thing is that all the things they’ve stuffed up are long term with a broad scope. People have trouble putting together the whole picture and imagining long term, far reaching relationships between different parts of large, long-lived systems.
Display Name,
The one thing that the Coalition have really stuffed up big time but have gotten no blowback about, is the NBN. As you say, it is a big picture stuff-up that isn’t so much concentrated into one easily identifiable internet meltdown, or asbestos in the pits, which Labor got caned for, but just a generalised poor quality of service provided for the tax dollars spent on it. Not to mention that its poor quality just encourages people to keep relying on traditional forms of media because they still provide comparable quality. Which is then abused by the legacy media owners. Win-win all around, government and the media owners who get to keep some value in their assets.
Which is then abused by the legacy media owners. Win-win all around, government and the media owners who get to keep some value in their assets.
_____________________________
Why would anyone be happy with a shitty service. All legacy tv media have streaming options. It’s just another conspiracy theory.
nath @ #1632 Saturday, June 8th, 2019 – 6:31 pm
Not everyone has streamimg options on their TV. I don’t, for example. A fact which would also apply to all the low information voters who get their opinions from the Murdoch tabloids and Free TV.
C@tmomma @ #1631 Saturday, June 8th, 2019 – 6:14 pm
In general, Australians have no idea just how far ahead of them the rest of the world is on internet speeds.
The real travesty with the coalition’s Fraudband is that taxpayers are going to pay significantly more at some point in order to upgrade the network to fibre.
Player One @ #1634 Saturday, June 8th, 2019 – 6:44 pm
And quite a few other things…
Confessions @ #1635 Saturday, June 8th, 2019 – 6:48 pm
I always thought that was the point – why just build it once, when you can keep building and rebuilding it forever?
Confessions @ #1635 Saturday, June 8th, 2019 – 6:48 pm
That would be after Rupert Murdoch is dead I’m guessing. 😐
‘lizzie says:
Saturday, June 8, 2019 at 5:56 pm
Mick Minion @169lunar
54m54 minutes ago
Andrew Hastie is lawyering up demanding tweets with his link to war crimes be removed. Do your thing Twitter.’
From my imperfect memory the Hastie issue went to fingers being cut off dead enemies. The tactical point was that the finger prints and DNA (and presumably images of the dead) were fed into tracking databases on individual enemies in Afghanistan.
I can see the point noting that it did not make any difference because peace negotiations in Afghanistan are between the Taliban and the Government.
In other words, our Afghanistan War Effort outcome is now subject to agreement by the Taliban.
We lost.
Cutting up enemy dead is a war crime.
https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/customary-ihl/eng/docs/v1_rul_rule113
Again, very vaguely from memory, the relevant Australian soldiers thought that they had been ordered to mutilate the dead and were obeying orders*. (The practical issue was that it was impossible to cart whole bodies back to base for the full forensic monty. When Hastie came across this behaviour he ordered not so fast and put a stop to it.
*In this case the Nuremberg Defence was accepted by the ADF in relation to activities by the …. ADF.
All of the above is a matter of opinion and is based on imperfect memory. I am sure that all concerned were completely innocent.
I AM curious about whether the fingers episode is one of the 10 instances of war crime allegations that were/are reputed to be substantive subject of the AFP raid on the ABC.
We know that there have been several instances of reparation payments made by the ADF in relation to restitution for civilian deaths. How many, for how many deaths, and for how much is presumably yet another thing that is classified.
We also know that the enquiry into the war crimes allegations is now into its third year. Something about justice delayed.
adrian @ #1636 Saturday, June 8th, 2019 – 6:50 pm
How true. And to think we used to be considered an advanced country … 🙁
C@tmomma @ #1633 Saturday, June 8th, 2019 – 4:36 pm
It has nothing to do with old school TV sets. Think iView for example. Each station has a similar service.
P1:
I used to think there was only so many times people would buy the argument that we couldn’t afford FTTN, that eventually people would twig that we can’t afford not to have FTTN.
But not anymore. The last election showed voters will swallow anything if it aligns with their worldview and prejudices.
That should be FTTH. Jeez, I’ve been forced to accept that my FTTN is a superior service that I’ve forgotten what fibre everywhere actually stands for! 😆
Confessions @ #1635 Saturday, June 8th, 2019 – 6:48 pm
Good. They voted for it. They wear it.
Dan Gulberry @ #1641 Saturday, June 8th, 2019 – 7:01 pm
And do you know how many people still don’t have internet connections!?! I met one just the other day when I went to buy a dress off her. I couldn’t even text her because she couldn’t afford more than Pre Paid credit, which she had run out of. We communicated via facebook on her phone which she could only use at home. She just didn’t have enough money to get an Unlimited Internet deal.
Not to mention all the people who I keep hearing about that don’t even have a computer. Let alone a modem and the ability to stream.
Not everyone is a rich person. Or even moderately well-off enough to afford things that you consider basic necessities of your life.
Itza:
One for you, cobber:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1zhKHTRj-U
To the best of knowledge, Y.B. Yates wrote this verse in his 18th year.
Dan G:
We watched the last of Bad Blood S2 last night. The series definitely improved towards the end; the final 2 episodes were very good.
Does anyone know when the French Open Womens Final is on? 🙂
Sorry C@t, not a fan of the tennis.
@Catmomma…..11pm this evening ….from my dodgy streaming list…..lol
23:00 Barty – Vondrousova