Sundry updates and developments:
• As noted in the regularly updated late counting post, Labor has taken a 67 vote lead in Macquarie, after trailing 39 at the close of counting yesterday. However, there is no guarantee that this represents an ongoing trend to Labor, since most of the gain came from the counting of absents, which would now be just about done. Most of the outstanding votes are out-of-division pre-polls, which could go either way. The result will determine whether the Coalition governs with 77 or 78 seats out of 151, while Labor will have either 67 or 68.
• Labor is reportedly preparing to challenge the result in Chisholm under the “misleading or deceptive publications” provision of the Electoral Act, a much ploughed but largely unproductive tillage for litigants over the years. The Victorian authorities have been rather activist in upholding “misleading or deceptive publications” complaints, but this is in the lower stakes context of challenges to the registration of how-to-vote cards, rather than to the result of an election. At issue on this occasion is Liberal Party material circulated on Chinese language social media service WeChat, which instructed readers to fill out the ballot paper in the manner recommended “to avoid an informal vote”. I await for a court to find otherwise, but this strikes me as pretty thin gruel. The Chinese community is surely aware that Australian elections presume to present voters with a choice, so the words can only be understood as an address to those who have decided to vote Liberal. Labor also have a beef with Liberal material that looked like Australian Electoral Commission material, in Chisholm and elsewhere.
• Political science heavyweights Simon Jackman and Shaun Ratcliff of the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre has breakdowns from a big sample campaign survey in The Guardian, noting that only survey data can circumvent the ecological fallacy, a matter raised in my previous post. The survey was derived from 10,316 respondents from a YouGov online panel, and conducted from April 18 to May 12. The results suggest the Coalition won through their dominance of the high income cohort (taken here to mean an annual household income of over $208,000), particularly among the self-employed, for which their primary vote is recorded as approaching 80%. Among business and trust owners on incomes of over $200,000, the Coalition outpolled Labor 60% to 10%, with the Greens on next to nothing. However, for those in the high income bracket who didn’t own business or trusts, the Coalition was in the low forties, Labor the high thirties, and the Greens the low teens. While Ratcliff in The Guardian seeks to rebut the notion that “battlers” decided the election for the Coalition, the big picture impression for low-income earners is that Labor were less than overwhelmingly dominant.
• As reported in the Financial Review on Friday, post-election polling for JWS Research found Coalition voters tended to rate tax and economic management as the most important campaign issue, against climate change, health and education for Labor voters. Perhaps more interestingly, it found Coalition voters more than twice as likely to nominate “free-to-air” television as “ABC, SBS television” as their favoured election news source, whereas Labor voters plumped for both fairly evenly. Coalition voters were also significantly more likely to identify “major newspapers (print/online)”.
• Two impending resignations from Liberal Senators create openings for losing election candidates. The Financial Review reports Mitch Fifield’s Victorian vacancy looks set to be of interest not only to Sarah Henderson, outgoing Corangamite MP and presumed front-runner, but also to Indi candidate Steve Martin, Macnamara candidate Kate Ashmor and former state MP Inga Peulich.
• In New South Wales, Arthur Sinodinos’s Senate seat will fall vacant later this year, when he takes up the position of ambassador to the United States. The most widely invoked interested party to succeed him has been Jim Molan, who is publicly holding out hope that below-the-line votes will elect him to the third Coalition seat off fourth position on the ballot paper, although this is assuredly not going to happen. As canvassed in the Sydney Morning Herald and the Financial Review, other possible starters include Warren Mundine, freshly unsuccessful in his lower house bid for Gilmore; James Brown, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW, state RSL president and the husband of Daisy Turnbull Brown, daughter of the former Prime Minister; Michael Hughes, state party treasurer and the brother of Lucy Turnbull; Kent Johns, the state party vice-president who appeared set to depose Craig Kelly for preselection in Hughes, but was prevailed on not to proceed; Richard Sheilds, chief lobbyist at the Insurance Council of Australia; Mary-Lou Jarvis, Woollahra councillor and unsuccessful preselection contender in Wentworth; and Michael Feneley, heart surgeon and twice-unsuccessful candidate for Kingsford Smith.
• Federal Labor may have evaded a party membership ballot through Anthony Albanese’s sole nomination, but a ballot is pending for the party’s new state leader in New South Wales, which will pit Kogarah MP Chris Minns against Strathfield MP Jodi McKay. The members’ ballot will be conducted over the next month, the parliamentary party will hold its vote on June 29, and the result will be announced the following day. Members’ ballots in leadership contests are now provided for federally and in most states (as best as I can tell, South Australia is an exception), but this is only the second time one has actually been conducted after the Shorten-Albanese bout that followed the 2013 election. As the Albanese experience demonstrates, the ballots can be circumvented if a candidate emerges unopposed, and the New South Wales branch, for one, has an exception if the vacancy arises six months before an election. Such was the case when Michael Daley succeeded Luke Foley in November, when he won a party room vote ahead of Chris Minns by 33 votes to 12.
Tristo….you can relax. The Lib-kin vote is not going to soar. It will likely decline….possibly remain static. The action in politics in the first few decades of this century has been/will be on the Right. Rightist Parties are proliferating. Their support is increasing. The Lib-kin have nothing to look forward to apart from frustrating Labor.
Just in the week and a half since the election Shorten has tried to stop Albo being leader, tried to get Catherine King out of health and Penny Wong out of Foreign Affairs.
@nath
Why do you think Bill Shorten wants to be leader of the Labor Party again? I am curious
Also I think Anthony Albanese is not the ‘clean pair of hands’ that many see him as. To me he seems like Scott Morrison, in being very smart about his moves. I remember at the Longman and Braddon by-elections, there was rumors of Albanese preparing for a possible leadership challenge if Labor lost one or both of those seats. BTW I am pretty cynical towards and have low expectations of our politicians.
C@t
Did you hear Zimmerman’s rationalisation of the Liu deception? Wtte It was simply a Liberal HTV card.
He’s very smooth. 🙁
I hope they name the new coal-fired power plant after Bob Brown. He deserves to be recognised for his contributions to global warming.
Tristo
says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2019 at 9:05 am
@nath
Why would Bill Shorten want to be leader of the Labor Party again?
________________________________________
Why? Because he has spent the past 30 years wanting to be PM. He knew he had to resign after the election but he will be undermining his successor so that he will get another shot down the line. No surer thing:
Several Labor MPs believe Mr Shorten still harbours leadership ambitions and wants to remain on the frontbench despite leading the party to two consecutive election losses.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bill-shorten-being-considered-for-disability-portfolio-as-kristina-keneally-s-ambitions-thwarted-20190528-p51ryp.html
@nath
Thanks Nath, I did read that article in the SMH.
Tristo…you shouldn’t be so cynical. Even from retirement, Bob Brown has procured a new coal-fired power plant in economically-depressed central QLD. He’s making a great contribution to climate change, a contribution that will survive us all. The Lib-kin have teamed with the Lib-Libs to expand atmospheric pollution. Brown has out-performed.
Reading that Independent Australia article about Scott Morrisons Penetecostal Christian faith. It is obvious he is into Prosperity Gospel. The mainstream media in this country, will seriously ask him about this beliefs although 🙁
lizzie @ #54 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 9:05 am
…But if it was the Labor candidate who had done a similar thing he would have been in high dudgeon.
Re the attitudes expressed by the Guardian (& apparently Crikey which I don’t read), the online paper depends on upper income left professionals ie the classic inner city Green & also many Labor voters, so it is going to reflect those “inner city” opinions.
As an inner city dweller & past professional worker myself (including back to when inner city meant migrant & blue collar working class) anecdotally my experience has been that largely inner city professionals are often snobs towards those on average & lower incomes, consciously as well as unconsciously.
When I was looking around for a “political home” I was initially interested in the Fabians (social justice, gradualism not revolution etc) until I realised their social attitude was the same as the political conservatives – that the lower orders should do what they were told by their betters….
That what the Greens Adani convoy represented to me – the wowerish professional upper middle class moralistically telling poorer country people what was good for them, instead of engaging, and listening, and persuading, and offering meaningful solutions till enough of the pro-Adani might be swayed to see the longer term picture re coal mining.
After all why waste a long time, head down working with people, when you can stand up and keep proclaiming to the world how much better you are for your moral virtues?
F
nath,
If anyone knows Bill Shorten, it’s Albanese. He obvioulsy gave Bill Shorten enough rope to hang himself and now that Albanese has gotten what he wants you can bet your bottom dollar he will have eyes in the back of his head looking out for Bill Shorten. They are both old hands at the Labor shenanigans game.
filr….spot on.
Gladys Liu, imitating the AEC to gain an advantage, is no different from firms selling imitations of high fashion handbags and watches.
briefly @ #63 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 9:22 am
+1
Bob Brown is a doctor. Richard Di Natale is a doctor. ‘Nuff said.
I don’t approve of this religious emphasis.
There has the been the odd massive blow-up in the past when advancement of Kristina Keneally is on the table.
C@tmomma @ #79 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 9:21 am
I find all of that profoundly stupid. Do Bill and Albanese want Labor to succeed, or do they just want power and glory for themselves?
Albanese should forget about Shorten, and Shorten should politely keep quiet, sit on the backbench, and not contest his seat at the next election.
C@tmomma @ #65 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 9:23 am
I must introduce to some of my friends. And me even.
Irrelevant.
Lizzie,
Has anyone asked Kristina what she thinks about this lately?
She has come quite a journey ideology- wise from her days of being a Catholic theologian.
The Labor-hostile target practice is already kicking in. It’s Labor-hate, a favoured past-time among the Lib-tribe.
Douglas and Milko @ #72 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 9:44 am
I think she’s pro-choice now. Don’t know about euthanasia – possibly in favour of vastly improved palliative care which stops short of actually administering a death-casing drug but aims to remove suffering and not prolong life if the result is inevitable.
PvO (on RN) says that Labor would be foolish to ignore KK in shadow cabinet but wonders whether Albo has the authority to over-ride the factions.
Labor would have saved $2.6 bn.
nath @ #56 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 9:08 am
—
So now you want to pee on Shortens’ grave too- You really are a loser Nath. Get a life.
Meanwhile, I had a look at the graveyard that has become Labor support in Queensland. What a mess. I’m smelling another 2 election strategy has to be built here and I’m not liking that instinct at all.
The ABC 24 hour “news” channel and those ABC Radio programs with high-secret-salary “media celebrities” bloviating their personal biases on political issues are an egregious waste of our taxes. Moreover, the ABC’s annoying self-promotion spots need to be cut to a maximum of 25% of the current level per hour.
ABC News website needs to eliminate all of their opinion pieces and, in news reporting, to cease employing language which has inherent bias. The classic example of copycatting Murdochian tabloid’s Orwellian parlance is “union bosses”. William Bowe’s lucid psephological reports and analyses constitute a stellar example which the ABC News needs to follow.
EB,
What are your insights wrt Queensland?
lizzie @ #71 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 9:37 am
Not at all. It proves they are from the intellectual elite that can’t see the world from the uneducated perspective. They aren’t the only ones, mind, however it isn’t irrelevant to their mindset at all.
nath says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2019 at 9:04 am
Bbbbbut Bill is all powerful!
How could he possibly have failed to get his way?
You are pathetic!
The Queensland issue is about repairing faith. My concern is less about Herbert, Dawson and Capricornia etc as those seats are more than capable of swinging violently back.
My biggest concern are those seats in and around Brisbane – Bowman, Bonner and Petrie are now considered quite safe seats, Longman and Dickson are looking secure and van Mannen is now safely ensconced in Forde. Those seats are more difficult, while improving the Labor primary vote is key everywhere, the role of the appalling primary vote in those metro/outer metro seats was lethal.
a r @ #69 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 9:34 am
And all that is absolutely true and it is unedifying watching the squabbling over the spoils of defeat. However, it is important that the fights are had, done and dusted. It is also important that common sense prevails. I’m hoping.
C@tmomma @ #82 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 8:35 am
If you apply that logic to the Greens, you have to apply it to Labor, and indeed all politicians as well.
C@tmomma (Block)
Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 10:32 am
Comment #81
EB,
What are your insights wrt Queensland?
Well Ive just started, but before the election there were 8 Coalition seats under 4.0 2PP Margin. Now the lowest they have is 3.4 % which they stole from Labor (Longman) and all 8 of their 2016 marginal seats have blown out well over 4.0 except in Leichardt. So 7 of the 8 targeted in 2016 are now safe Coalition seats – Only 3 Coalition seats in QLD are now under 55.0 and the mistrust of Labor for blue collar workers up there is going to still be stinky at the next election. So donuts for ALP at the next election in QLD, Victoria gave LABOR donuts, and NSW and WA ….and TAS did the usual and flipped Bass and Braddon, again, against everything I was hearing on the ground and a distaste for the State Government. If QLD gives us donuts again in 2022, we will have another stinker. Two elections to get back in Government from here I would think. But let me delve deeper …lol.
Dan Gulberry @ #86 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 10:39 am
Oh yes. I’m an advocate of Labor going back to the Mick Young days where we picked candidates who came out of the diaspora we were seeking votes from.
That’s why the PHON candidate in the Hunter did so well.
R.E.A.L.
Bigoted too, of course. But that’s to be put to one side for the purpose of making the point about Labor candidates.
Thanks, EB. 🙂
Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery
says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2019 at 10:37 am
nath says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2019 at 9:04 am
Just in the week and a half since the election Shorten has tried to stop Albo being leader, tried to get Catherine King out of health and Penny Wong out of Foreign Affairs.
Bbbbbut Bill is all powerful!
How could he possibly have failed to get his way?
You are pathetic!
__________________________________
Well he’s clearly not as powerful as he was. It has been widely reported that he was attempting to stop Albo being leader, and then wanted Health and FA. Don’t blame me for posting information that the political press have reported on you complete idiot.
C@tmomma @ #85 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 10:38 am
Funny.
Shorten isn’t hanging around for nothing. Albo will no doubt be in his sights.
Here’s an example of someone Labor should be looking up:
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/people/2019/05/28/egg-boy-donation-christchurch-victims/
Who cares if he’s only just past being old enough to vote by the next election? He’s got a wise head on his shoulders.
“briefly says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2019 at 9:48 am
The Labor-hostile target practice is already kicking in. It’s Labor-hate, a favoured past-time among the Lib-tribe.”
briefly, in your opinion is there anyone on this planet (who is not a rusted-on Labor party voter) who is not in the “Lib-tribe”?
Dan Gulberry says:
Wednesday, May 29, 2019 at 10:39 am
“Not at all. It proves they are from the intellectual elite that can’t see the world from the uneducated perspective. They aren’t the only ones, mind, however it isn’t irrelevant to their mindset at all.”
“If you apply that logic to the Greens, you have to apply it to Labor, and indeed all politicians as well.”
Well speaking for myself I am very critical of the Labor factional system which has been churning out University educated clones who go straight into Union/political offices without any other work experience.
Regarding people like Bob Brown, my own criticism is not that he is a doctor, but he did not show any empathy with those he was preaching to on the Adani Convoy. To me he sounded just like an old fashion middle class wowser telling the working class they were going to hell through drink and gambling – and there was some truth to what the wowsers said re alcoholism and gambling addiction, but the whole way they presented as morally superior is what made that type of virtue signalling counter-productive.
We haven’t got that much time left to deal with climate change, but if you look at the behaviour of the Greens, they have been happy to declare their moral superiority while effectively holding back Labor even starting to engage with the problem – eg Brown sitting with the Liberals in the Senate, to bring down the ETS in 2009.
nath @ #91 Wednesday, May 29th, 2019 – 11:09 am
—
{a} The “political press” you selectively quote all said LABOR would win the last election- not a very reliable information source and {b} selectively quoting anything and everything that paints Shorten in a bad light clearly shows your kill bill obsession. You are the “complete idiot” of PB Nath. Own it.
“widely reported”
Three different news sources all making things up.
Apologies if anyone else has posted. Well worth a read. Written from the union point of view
https://percapita.org.au/2019/05/29/election-2019-another-dose-of-fear/
It’s also being ‘widely reported’ that Shorten wants a frontbench position. Fake news?
Lizzie, C@tMomma, Dan Gulberryt et al re physicians in politics
Compare Messrs. Brown and de Natale with nath’s new enemy Dr Mike Freelander.
The former have both abandoned pursuit of patients’ interests (the special calling of physicians, including even the most arrogant surgeon) and instead pursue a political agenda (a supposedly higher calling)
In contrast Dr Freelander is in politics only to advocate for patients and in fact when running he continued to patients entirely for free (not even charging medicare so as to avoid a s44 issue).
It IS relevant that a physician abandons patients to pursue something else!