Election plus 11 days

Late counting, a disputed result, new research into voter attitudes, Senate vacancies, and the looming party members’ vote for the state Labor leadership in New South Wales.

Sundry updates and developments:

• As noted in the regularly updated late counting post, Labor has taken a 67 vote lead in Macquarie, after trailing 39 at the close of counting yesterday. However, there is no guarantee that this represents an ongoing trend to Labor, since most of the gain came from the counting of absents, which would now be just about done. Most of the outstanding votes are out-of-division pre-polls, which could go either way. The result will determine whether the Coalition governs with 77 or 78 seats out of 151, while Labor will have either 67 or 68.

• Labor is reportedly preparing to challenge the result in Chisholm under the “misleading or deceptive publications” provision of the Electoral Act, a much ploughed but largely unproductive tillage for litigants over the years. The Victorian authorities have been rather activist in upholding “misleading or deceptive publications” complaints, but this is in the lower stakes context of challenges to the registration of how-to-vote cards, rather than to the result of an election. At issue on this occasion is Liberal Party material circulated on Chinese language social media service WeChat, which instructed readers to fill out the ballot paper in the manner recommended “to avoid an informal vote”. I await for a court to find otherwise, but this strikes me as pretty thin gruel. The Chinese community is surely aware that Australian elections presume to present voters with a choice, so the words can only be understood as an address to those who have decided to vote Liberal. Labor also have a beef with Liberal material that looked like Australian Electoral Commission material, in Chisholm and elsewhere.

• Political science heavyweights Simon Jackman and Shaun Ratcliff of the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre has breakdowns from a big sample campaign survey in The Guardian, noting that only survey data can circumvent the ecological fallacy, a matter raised in my previous post. The survey was derived from 10,316 respondents from a YouGov online panel, and conducted from April 18 to May 12. The results suggest the Coalition won through their dominance of the high income cohort (taken here to mean an annual household income of over $208,000), particularly among the self-employed, for which their primary vote is recorded as approaching 80%. Among business and trust owners on incomes of over $200,000, the Coalition outpolled Labor 60% to 10%, with the Greens on next to nothing. However, for those in the high income bracket who didn’t own business or trusts, the Coalition was in the low forties, Labor the high thirties, and the Greens the low teens. While Ratcliff in The Guardian seeks to rebut the notion that “battlers” decided the election for the Coalition, the big picture impression for low-income earners is that Labor were less than overwhelmingly dominant.

• As reported in the Financial Review on Friday, post-election polling for JWS Research found Coalition voters tended to rate tax and economic management as the most important campaign issue, against climate change, health and education for Labor voters. Perhaps more interestingly, it found Coalition voters more than twice as likely to nominate “free-to-air” television as “ABC, SBS television” as their favoured election news source, whereas Labor voters plumped for both fairly evenly. Coalition voters were also significantly more likely to identify “major newspapers (print/online)”.

• Two impending resignations from Liberal Senators create openings for losing election candidates. The Financial Review reports Mitch Fifield’s Victorian vacancy looks set to be of interest not only to Sarah Henderson, outgoing Corangamite MP and presumed front-runner, but also to Indi candidate Steve Martin, Macnamara candidate Kate Ashmor and former state MP Inga Peulich.

• In New South Wales, Arthur Sinodinos’s Senate seat will fall vacant later this year, when he takes up the position of ambassador to the United States. The most widely invoked interested party to succeed him has been Jim Molan, who is publicly holding out hope that below-the-line votes will elect him to the third Coalition seat off fourth position on the ballot paper, although this is assuredly not going to happen. As canvassed in the Sydney Morning Herald and the Financial Review, other possible starters include Warren Mundine, freshly unsuccessful in his lower house bid for Gilmore; James Brown, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW, state RSL president and the husband of Daisy Turnbull Brown, daughter of the former Prime Minister; Michael Hughes, state party treasurer and the brother of Lucy Turnbull; Kent Johns, the state party vice-president who appeared set to depose Craig Kelly for preselection in Hughes, but was prevailed on not to proceed; Richard Sheilds, chief lobbyist at the Insurance Council of Australia; Mary-Lou Jarvis, Woollahra councillor and unsuccessful preselection contender in Wentworth; and Michael Feneley, heart surgeon and twice-unsuccessful candidate for Kingsford Smith.

• Federal Labor may have evaded a party membership ballot through Anthony Albanese’s sole nomination, but a ballot is pending for the party’s new state leader in New South Wales, which will pit Kogarah MP Chris Minns against Strathfield MP Jodi McKay. The members’ ballot will be conducted over the next month, the parliamentary party will hold its vote on June 29, and the result will be announced the following day. Members’ ballots in leadership contests are now provided for federally and in most states (as best as I can tell, South Australia is an exception), but this is only the second time one has actually been conducted after the Shorten-Albanese bout that followed the 2013 election. As the Albanese experience demonstrates, the ballots can be circumvented if a candidate emerges unopposed, and the New South Wales branch, for one, has an exception if the vacancy arises six months before an election. Such was the case when Michael Daley succeeded Luke Foley in November, when he won a party room vote ahead of Chris Minns by 33 votes to 12.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

999 comments on “Election plus 11 days”

  1. The Gs are an opponent of Labor. This has to be expressed in the strongest terms.

    Alternative take; until Labor and the Greens can learn to be friendly (or at least, indifferent) towards each other, the Coalition will keep winning.

    With primaries in the mid-30’s, Labor is going nowhere without Greens preferences. Attacking Greens voters is a good way to ensure that fewer of those preferences flow back to Labor, and a bad way of accomplishing pretty much anything else.

  2. Peter Stanton

    For your statement to be true you have to prove their were no Queenslanders in the convoy.

    Edit: Note I am not talking good or bad strategy. Just pointing out how the narrative is wrong

  3. Dan Gulberry

    So is my collection mainly UK stuff.
    Apart from one of my favourites The Killers, being from Las Vegas and singer being a mormon. It still freaks me out how much I like this band.
    Having said that, they are very heavily influenced by UK music.

  4. PNG parliament on y Screen.

    Vote could be bad news for Dutton with a new PM not having the same view as the last on Asylum Seekers.

  5. “briefly says:
    Thursday, May 30, 2019 at 10:42 am
    “Tristo says:
    Thursday, May 30, 2019 at 10:37 am
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/folau-s-law-coalition-mps-push-for-bolder-action-in-a-new-dawn-for-religious-freedom-20190529-p51s9m.html

    The Labor Party should oppose this attempt to normalize bigotry.”

    Labor will oppose bigotry. The Greens can fuck off. They can stop telling Labor what to do.”

    Erm….. Neither the posting or the article suggest the Greens are telling Labour anything.

    It talks about Coalition MP’s doing this. The Nationals might have chosen green as their colour, but they aren’t the Greens.

    Perhaps this is a post against Tristo????

  6. Dan Gulberry says:
    Thursday, May 30, 2019 at 10:46 am
    Simon² Katich® @ #646 Thursday, May 30th, 2019 – 8:43 am

    We must act.
    We won’t.

    The Lib-Libs derive a political advantage from splitting the electorate over climate change, by making it a choice between jobs and the climate. They will pursue a conspicuously anti-environment program. This will be a virtue for them.

    The Greens will bash Labor for failing to stop the Lib-Libs, and yet will at all times and in places seek to prevent Labor from taking power.

    This is the catch-22, the dysfunction, in Left politics. Until it is resolved, nothing of any substance will be done in this country. Nothing. The Right have been winning. They will go on winning, emboldened and strengthened. They will destroy the place.

  7. “With primaries in the mid-30’s, Labor is going nowhere without Greens preferences. Attacking Greens voters is a good way to ensure that fewer of those preferences flow back to Labor, and a bad way of accomplishing pretty much anything else.”

    I tend to agree ar, but the Greens have to also stop their duplicity and LIB support if we are to have a progressive alternative to the nonsense of the Right…..We all have to learn to play along more nicely….(ducks for cover…..)

  8. Information has come to hand showing how the LNP was able to win the recent Federal Election.

    Undercover agents have been posing as bumbling, dull witted, bogan type dimwits and mingling with ordinary people from all walks of life.

    While these agents seemingly had the appearance of ugly, stupid and ridiculous monkeys dressed in suits they were actually ugly, stupid and ridiculous super LNP agents dressed in suits.

    The information gained enabled a suite* of policy to be formed as detailed below which led to the miracle election result.

    *Suit of policy —-🙈🙉🙊

    EOT – Over and out. 😵

    P.S. I love monkeys and gorillas. 💘

  9. mundo says:
    Thursday, May 30, 2019 at 10:16 am

    …”Was thinking along the same lines.
    Expect Scrotty to resign any day now because he has a young family”…

    As you have shown yourself capable of predicting future events with an alarming degree of accuracy, could you please give an exact date for this event?

  10. a r @ #649 Thursday, May 30th, 2019 – 10:46 am

    The Gs are an opponent of Labor. This has to be expressed in the strongest terms.

    Alternative take; until Labor and the Greens can learn to be friendly (or at least, ambivalent) towards each other, the Coalition will keep winning.

    With primaries in the mid-30’s, Labor is going nowhere without Greens preferences. Attacking Greens voters is a good way to ensure that fewer of those preferences flow back to Labor, and a bad way of accomplishing pretty much anything else.

    And I wish we could all acknowledge that here and move on so as to attack and direct our energies and time towards those who really deserve it.

  11. Paul…you are telling Labor what to do. I could be mistaken, but I think you’re Lib-kin. If you’re not, I withdraw.

    In any case, Labor should be telling the Gs they can fuck off.

  12. Pica @ #655 Thursday, May 30th, 2019 – 10:52 am

    “With primaries in the mid-30’s, Labor is going nowhere without Greens preferences. Attacking Greens voters is a good way to ensure that fewer of those preferences flow back to Labor, and a bad way of accomplishing pretty much anything else.”

    I tend to agree ar, but the Greens have to also stop their duplicity and LIB support if we are to have a progressive alternative to the nonsense of the Right…..We all have to learn to play along more nicely….(ducks for cover…..)

    Don’t duck! But I thought you were a Magpie!?! 🙂

  13. @briefly

    The Greens supporters in particular are those shout bigot at people who are religious and oppose same sex marriage on religious reasons. As I have said before I am a Greens vote, but not a supporter. Also I preference Labor before the Coalition and right-wing populist parties which peddle racism and bigotry.

    I believe that sort of strategy is very counterproductive, rather the sort of dialogue Anthony Albanese has demonstrated should be used by Labor. While opposing the Coalition’s attempts to make bigotry acceptable.

    The government is attempting to create a wedge issue on this. Because they know many Progressive do regard religious conservatives who say oppose legally recognizing same sex marriages or safe schools as hateful bigots.

  14. Labor will have gender-balanced leadership after right-wing factional heavyweight Don Farrell abandoned his bid to be Penny Wong’s Senate deputy.

    New leader Anthony Albanese said Senator Farrell came to him on Thursday morning to confirm he would not seek to continue in the role he has held for the last three years.

    “Even though he had substantial support of Caucus colleagues, [Senator Farrell] was prepared to step aside as Labor’s deputy leader in the Senate on the basis that he understood that I had made it clear that my view was there needed to be gender balance in Labor’s leadership team,” the Opposition Leader said.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-30/labor-gender-balance-leadership-wong-albanese/11162718

  15. “briefly says:
    Thursday, May 30, 2019 at 10:54 am
    Paul…you are telling Labor what to do. I could be mistaken, but I think you’re Lib-kin. If you’re not, I withdraw.

    In any case, Labor should be telling the Gs they can fuck off.”

    No, I am not.

    I do think that Labor needs to attract voters from the Greens.
    I think some stronger and clearer policy statements could do this.
    If this what you mean by “fuck off” then I agree.

  16. Interesting how people see things

    @2hdor tweets

    BREAKING NEWS:- Scott Morrison a hero, and lauded by the grovelling, two-bit media as he delivers a 1 seat majority (pending) and a Hostile Senate, after a campaign of Lies, $$$$$$$ and deceit. Media blames Labor!! #auspol #msmFAIL

  17. @TheAviator1992
    25m25 minutes ago

    Word of advice – if the hard right want to start a crusade on protecting so called religious freedoms, Mr I Left My Wife For My Pregnant Staffer is not your best choice for a campaign leader. #auspol

  18. Victoria
    I’m still spewing missing out on seeing The Cure at vivid in Sydney this past week.
    Due to son getting married and all. Damn it!

    Their last concert from the Sydney Opera House is being broadcast tonight on Facebook and YouTube from 8pm.

    I travelled down from Queensland on Monday to see them. It was a great show in a great venue; but don’t expect a ‘best of’ show.

  19. Hugh Moran

    Lucky you.
    Thanks for the heads up.

    Admittedly I do have my favourite songs that I listen to over and over and over. Lol!

    At moment, it is song…..

    the same deep water as you

    that is getting a work out!

  20. The fair work commission in supporting its minimum wage decision said it was satisfied the 3% increase would have “no adverse effect on inflation”.
    I would have thought that any inflationary effect would be in the economy’s best interests, given what the RBA has been saying.

  21. I love this response. 🙂

    @WillOremus

    Twitter is commissioning academic research into the question of whether it should get rid of the Nazis.

    @kenlowery
    5h5 hours ago

    We actually did a whole war about this one. It was in all the papers

  22. Jennifer Bechwati@jenbechwati

    Factional fighting within NSW Libs reaches boiling point – #7News tonight revealed Liberal Senator Jim Molan is considering suing Liberal MP Trent Zimmerman – after he called Mr Molan ‘dishonourable’ for running a vote below the line campaign #auspol

  23. Reserve Bank’s Lowe advocated a repeat of last years 3.5% increase for an improvement in consumer spending. ACTU called for 6%. Business lobby wanted 2% at the highest. I wonder what impact the election result had on the FWC’s decision.

  24. lizzie @ #679 Thursday, May 30th, 2019 – 11:25 am

    Jennifer Bechwati@jenbechwati

    Factional fighting within NSW Libs reaches boiling point – #7News tonight revealed Liberal Senator Jim Molan is considering suing Liberal MP Trent Zimmerman – after he called Mr Molan ‘dishonourable’ for running a vote below the line campaign #auspol

    Now let’s see the PR PM just drop Mr Molan back into the Senate. 🙂

  25. Factional fighting within NSW Libs

    If it was Labor would the words "brawl" and "factional heavyweights' have been used by Ch.7 ? 😉

  26. The minimum wage needs to be lifted from $19 an hour to $25 an hour. The increase needs to be about 33%. This is where the minimum wage would be today had it kept pace with average labour productivity growth since 1970.

  27. BK @ #673 Thursday, May 30th, 2019 – 11:20 am

    The fair work commission in supporting its minimum wage decision said it was satisfied the 3% increase would have “no adverse effect on inflation”.
    I would have thought that any inflationary effect would be in the economy’s best interests, given what the RBA has been saying.

    Minimum wages will always be lower under a Coalition government. 🙂

  28. The long game being played by Farrell and Husic will stand both them and the ALP in very good step. I think it also shows a level of awareness in putting aside personal ambition in the short term without the white-anting.

  29. YBob says:
    Thursday, May 30, 2019 at 10:14 am

    C@t, of course The Specials did a splendid cover of Liquidator. Not much beats the music that came out of Brittan in the late 70’s and early 80’s

    —————————————————–

    And you would-be guitarists out there, watch this and eat your heart out. Rare footage of one of the greatest in the history of the instrument.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqEgUC0g6CI

    Django lost the use of his little and adjacent finger in a gypsy caravan fire but with the two remaining digits could outplay anyone from the rock era IMHO.

    The wonderful French standard J’attendrai by the Quintet of the Hot Club of France, which includes a youthful Stephane Grapelli on jazz violin.

    This and his version of the great Isham Jones 1924 standard which follows are extraordinary examples of his improvisational skills.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNRHHRjep3E

    I’ll wind up with a group of kids who are keeping the Reinhardt tradition alive today giving their take on the aforementioned standard written 95 years ago.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a60ica0lJYI

    Now THAT’s music: melody, improvisation, interpretation, taste, class and joie de vivre.

  30. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, May 30, 2019 at 11:35 am

    …”Well I must be the only one among us who has actually had a one on one conversation with Robert Smith”…

    Are you sure about that?

  31. 5000 supporters of the anti-adani convoy at Mullumbimby welcoming the caravan of courage

    I hope the travellers had their shots before venturing into Mullum.

  32. C@t
    And about the only place in Australia where that would happen.

    Legalise pot & there will be more places for anti Adani rallies

  33. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, May 30, 2019 at 12:03 pm

    …”Have you?”…

    I don’t know if it could be described as a “conversation”.
    But the memory of those few, fleeting moments in the disabled toilet of Baker St tube station in 1986 will live with me forever more.

  34. citizen

    ABC boss has given tacit permission for all the journos to show their ‘true bias’. Real question is whether this will make any difference.

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