Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The debut reading for Clive Palmer’s party in a national Newspoll result is 5%. Two-party preferred status: it’s complicated.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll records both parties down on the primary vote, the Coalition by one to 38% and Labor by two to 37%, making room for the debut appearance of Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party on 5%. The Greens and One Nation are both unchanged, at 9% and 4% respectively. The two-party preferred headline moves a point in favour of the Coalition, from 52-48 to 51-49 – a lot more on that shortly.

Movements on personal ratings are slightly to Bill Shorten’s favour – he is up two on approval to 39% and steady on disapproval at 51%, and his 45-37 deficit on preferred prime minister is an improvement on his 46-35 in the last poll. Scott Morrison is steady on approval at 45% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Respondents were also asked which leader they most trusted to keep their campaign promises, with Morrison very slightly favoured over Shorten by 41% to 38%. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday, with Thursday dropped from the usual field work period because of the public holiday, from a larger than usual sample of 2136, the norm being around 1700.

Beyond that, there is a good deal to unpack. This is the first time a result for the United Australia Party has been published, but the tables in The Australian today reveal the party was on 3% in the poll a fortnight ago, and 2% in the poll the week before that. As Peter Brent discusses in Inside Story, pollsters have an important decision to make in deciding whether to include a minor party in the primary question, or saving it for those who choose “other” out of an initial list – a decision that will have a bearing on their result. I assume the publication of the UAP result in the latest poll marks its elevation from the second tier to the first, but the publication of the earlier results may suggest otherwise.

Then there’s the two-party preferred, which raised eyebrows as the primary votes are of a kind that would normally be associated with 52-48. The answer, it turns out, is that a preference split of 60-40 in favour of the Coalition is being applied to the UAP vote. The rationale is explained in an accompanying piece by David Briggs, managing director of YouGov Galaxy, which conducts Newspoll. First, Briggs confirms this is also what it has been doing with One Nation preferences since the start of last year, earlier statements having been less exact. Of the decision to extend this to Palmer:

With the UAP there is no historical trend data we can refer to in order to estimate the likely preference flow to the major parties. We do know, however, that in the 2013 election 53.67 per cent of the Palmer United Party vote was ­directed to Coalition candidates. That was without a preference deal, but in the forthcoming federal election the Liberal Party will swap preferences with the UAP and this can only result in an even higher proportion of UAP votes being directed to the Coalition.

In point of fact though, the Palmer United Party’s approach to preferences in 2013 was to put Labor last in every seat (as best as I can tell — its how-to-vote cards are preserved here). I don’t believe this arose from a deal as such, and it didn’t seem to attract any publicity at that time. However, the fact remains that every Palmer United voter who followed the card ended up in the Coalition’s two-party preferred tally, which is no different from the situation at the election to come.

Briggs also points to the party breakdowns from the aforementioned question on leader most trusted to deliver on campaign promises, which found Morrison to be favoured 53-13 among UAP voters – a significant lead, even accounting for the fact that there would only have been around 100 UAP voters out of the poll sample.

The Newspoll preference split may well be vindicated in time, but for now it’s merely a hypothesis. The dynamics of Palmer’s preferences could actually prove rather complex, if the Western Australian election of 2017 is any guide. The Liberals cut a deal with One Nation in that campaign, and they indeed got a bigger cut of their preferences, from the roughly 50-50 split of the 2016 election (out of the 15 lower house seats the party contested) to 60.6%.

However, this may have had less to do with how-to-vote cards than the backlash One Nation suffered as a result of the deal, which the polls of the time indicated had cost them as much as a third of their existing support – presumably among the kind of voter most likely to preference Labor. Since the Liberals were tainted by the deal as well, nobody doubts that it backfired on them, despite its “success” in delivering a higher share of preferences from a diminished One Nation.

As Labor prepares a rhetorical onslaught against Scott Morrison over the Clive Palmer deal, we may well be about to see a similar dynamic play out federally. However, this too is merely a hypothesis. The bottom line is that extrapolating two-party preferred from primary votes right now unavoidably involves an uncomfortable amount of guess work. For better or worse though, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate will continue to be guided by previous election results in allocating preferences – and, notably, the addition of the Newspoll numbers has made almost no difference to it.

The table below compares the results from Newspoll model with two alternative approaches that might have been taken. The results are imprecise in that they rely on the rounded primary votes published by Newspoll, but it’s nonetheless worth noting that the Newspoll method gives Labor 51.4%, suggesting the headline figure was likely rounded in their favour. The next two columns along, under “Past election: A”, apply UAP preferences using Palmer United’s 53.7-46.3 split from 2013, and One Nation’s using the almost 50-50 split from 2016. The last two columns, “Past election: B”, are how it would go if the UAP was treated as just another component of “others”, and thus given the almost 50-50 split such votes followed in 2016.

Newspoll method Past election: A Past election: B
  L-NP ALP L-NP ALP L-NP ALP
Primary 38 37 38 37 38 37
Greens 1.6 7.4 1.6 7.4 1.6 7.4
UAP 3.0 2.0 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.5
One Nation 2.4 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Others 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.4
TOTAL 48.6 51.4 47.9 52.1 47.7 52.3

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,496 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 15 of 30
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  1. Are LNP poll workers going to be asked to hand out Clive’s HTVs? I suppose that, since most of them will be backpackers, they won’t care. Dunno what the punters will think though.

  4. “ScoMo deliberately and wilfully jumped into bed with a wage thief and multi million dollar tax pure rip off artist. ”

    With the ballot papers and HTV cards printed and being distributed for pre-poll voting, ScoMo is not only IN bed with Palmer, but pretty much tied down in it no matter what. 🙂

    So, he now has no escape from whatever campaign is run against Clive. Given that a measure of dealing with “wage theft” has been part of the ALP platform?? Not a good move by ScoMo and does i think make the Libs vulnerable to the same kind of thing that happened at the W.A. state election regarding Libs/PHON.

    May not be as bad as that, but FFS if its anything even starting to approach how bad that was for the Libs they are fwarked.

  5. That ABC commentary referred to just now is pretty depressing. So the press pack just wants to be entertained & if they get that they’ll pass on approving remarks.

  8. steve davis

    The regressive tax you refer to was not in isolation – there were significant changes to the individual tax and welfare system making those impacted by the regressive nature (in isolation) better off.

  11. mikehilliard says: Monday, April 29, 2019 at 2:08 pm

    Palmer looks like he’s using the same makeup team as Trump. Looked positively orange in the Today clip.

    **************************************************************
    This is how Trump/Palmer do it Mike ( hope it doesn’t put you off your main meal tonight )

  12. meher baba @ #683 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 2:59 pm

    The interesting question is why Labor has brought the strategy back, with the extra frisson of openly telling the million plus people who are going to be adversely affected by their policies that they should consider voting for the Coalition.

    You oppose honesty in politics? If your highest priority as a voter is getting preferential tax treatment on certain types of investments at the expense of everybody else, it does follow that you should vote for the Coalition. Labor deserves credit for saying as much.

    If Labor ends up losing the election, I don’t think it will be a question of having misunderstood the Australian electorate’s values.

    Personally I’ll be blaming weak campaigning from Shorten if that happens. He’s trying too hard to be everything to everyone.

    Also, he needs to read a copy of this book and stop using overwrought sentence structure and clumsy phrases (like “top end of town”) when orating.

    When he spoke to the bloke on $250k per annum who was complaining about him and his mates not getting a tax cut, he was clearly itching to make a comment along the lines of “you and everyone else will be better off under a Labor Government.” But he knew that Labor will actually be expecting this bloke to cop an extra tax hike not only on his salary but on his super as well.

    That’s not a problem. The problem is Shorten’s unwillingness to say that, and with conviction. “Sorry, but $250k/annum puts you in the top 1%; Labor’s not doing cuts for the top 1% because 99% of Australians are worse off than you”.

  14. Advertiser/You Gov Galaxy Poll shows in Sturt Liberals leading 53-47 (55.4-44.6 in 2016).

    Primaries as follows (compared to 2016):
    Liberal 42% (-2.4%)
    Labor 35% (+11.8%)
    Palmer 9% (+9%)
    Greens 6% (-1.6%)
    Other 8%

    Major difference due to removal of 19.8% NXT vote from 2016.

    Advertiser says: “Surging support for billionaire Clive Palmer’s party is poised to help deliver a Liberal victory in the eastern Adelaide seat of Sturt being vacated by Christopher Pyne, an Advertiser poll finds.”

    Paywalled article may be found here:
    https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/federal-election/clive-palmers-preferences-are-poised-to-be-pivotal-in-sturt-advertiser-poll-reveals/news-story/f02c9a39efe858aaa89e3ce33574305e

  16. GG @3.24pm

    Looks pretty accurate to me.

    She’s never voted for the LNP in her life and wants to bring down an LNP government and supports most of the ALP Policies and has the full weight of the ALP astroturf campaign machine GetUp behind her – yep, ALP.

  19. Sykesie – apparently paywalled information is not acceptable here. Greensborough Growler will refute your claims. Enjoy.

  20. Bucephalus @ #714 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 3:28 pm

    Sykesie – apparently paywalled information is not acceptable here. Greensborough Growler will refute your claims. Enjoy.

    Bucephalus @ #711 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 3:27 pm

    GG @3.24pm

    Looks pretty accurate to me.

    She’s never voted for the LNP in her life and wants to bring down an LNP government and supports most of the ALP Policies and has the full weight of the ALP astroturf campaign machine GetUp behind her – yep, ALP.

    You wonder why no one takes you seriously?

  22. Dennis Atkins in the CM saying what we are all thinking…

    Clive Palmer statement littered with lies and twisted facts presented as truth: It was hard to keep up with the number of lies and twisted facts presented by Clive Palmer at his no-questions statement to the media in Brisbane, writes Dennis Atkins. bit.ly/2vrNKP2

  26. The 1998 ‘GST’ election – that wasn’t a reform proposed from opposition, and, of course, Howard all but lost that election, losing the overall 2PP vote fairly substantially.

  30. Thanks WB. I like this bit

    (Briggs)
    With the UAP there is no historical trend data we can refer to in order to estimate the likely preference flow to the major parties. We do know, however, that in the 2013 election 53.67 per cent of the Palmer United Party vote was ­directed to Coalition candidates. That was without a preference deal, but in the forthcoming federal election the Liberal Party will swap preferences with the UAP and this can only result in an even higher proportion of UAP votes being directed to the Coalition.

    In point of fact though, the Palmer United Party’s approach to preferences in 2013 was to put Labor last in every seat (as best as I can tell)

    2013 was not a good year for the ALP. It could be that Briggs is guessing in the wrong direction 🙂

  31. Some real characters in this one c/- Courier Mail:

    [Under cross-examination from Mr Leyonhjelm’s barrister, Tony Morris QC, Senator Keneally agreed “slut-shaming” could refer to a person of low sexual morals and someone taking advantage of that, or to painting someone as having low sexual morals.
    She said it was not appropriate for a person’s sexual activity to be used as a political weapon.
    Former trade unionist Bill Kelty said Senator Hanson-Young had been “deeply hurt” by Mr Leyonhjelm’s statements.
    The 71-year-old agreed that he had suffered “slings and arrows” in his long public life but said no one ever accused him of being against women simply because they are women, or being hypocritical.]

  32. Candid Pic Captures What ‘Young and Vibrant’ Trump Really Looks Like

    Trump claims that he is ‘young and vibrant,’ but a candid picture of the president tells a thousand words of a much different story.

    On Friday, Trump called himself a young and vibrant man, “I feel like a young man. I’m so young. I can’t believe it. I’m the youngest person; I’m a vibrant young man. I look at Joe, and I don’t know about him. I don’t know.”

    Without his orange spray tan to cover-up his bad skin and wrinkles, and his baggy suits to try to hide his gut, one can see that Trump is anything that young and vibrant. Trump looks like a 72-year-old man who doesn’t take care of himself because that is precisely what he is.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2019/04/28/trump-real-picture.html

  34. As a Sturt resident I am also shocked to hear 9% of Sturt will vote for Clive the great Wage evader. Really?

    Also did Clive really say today that Labor’s childcare package today was communism? Let me see if I have the logic correct:

    Clive says caring for children is communism.
    Jesus encouraged caring for children.
    Therefore Jesus encouraged communism
    Threfore Clive (and ScumMo) hate Jesus, since he encouraged communism.

  36. The Hon Michael McCormack MP
    Deputy Prime Minister & Leader of The Nationals

    ‘Address to the National Press Club’

    Tuesday, 30 April 2019

    Arrive from 11.20am, lunch 12 noon, speaker 12.30, concludes 1.30pm
    _____
    One can get paid $50 to attend.

  37. sprocket_ says:
    Monday, April 29, 2019 at 3:33 pm
    Dennis Atkins in the CM saying what we are all thinking…

    Clive Palmer statement littered with lies and twisted facts presented as truth: It was hard to keep up with the number of lies and twisted facts presented by Clive Palmer at his no-questions statement to the media in Brisbane, writes Dennis Atkins. bit.ly/2vrNKP2
    ———————-
    Sounds a lot like the rag that Atkins scribbles for.

  38. “The Hon Michael McCormack MP
    Deputy Prime Minister & Leader of The Nationals

    ‘Address to the National Press Club’

    Tuesday, 30 April 2019

    Arrive from 11.20am, lunch 12 noon, speaker 12.30, concludes 1.30pm”

    Do you reckon he can have any rasonable expectation that the questions wont all be:

    Water
    Barnaby

    Both issues the Nats are completley fwarked on?

  39. Socrates @ #734 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 3:42 pm

    As a Sturt resident I am also shocked to hear 9% of Sturt will vote for Clive the great Wage evader. Really?

    Also did Clive really say today that Labor’s childcare package today was communism? Let me see if I have the logic correct:

    Clive says caring for children is communism.
    Jesus encouraged caring for children.
    Therefore Jesus encouraged communism
    Threfore Clive (and ScumMo) hate Jesus, since he encouraged communism.

    The Social Services Minister Dan Tehan did on RN this morning.

  41. It’s all very well for someone from here to publish Chisholm’s rebuttal of Palmer, but if the ABC and other news outlets fail to air it that’s all it is: air.

    Bullshit put out in the morning allows the ABC to edit together a nice, neat package that condemns Labor by the nightly news. They may or may not tack “Labor denies the allegations” onto the end of the item, but that’s about all you’ll get.

    The excuse will be “Not enough time to re-edit” or similar tosh. Don’t forget, they always find “technical difficulties” to interrupt anything at all involving Bill Shorten speaking, so neglecting Labor’s response shouldn’t be too hard.

  42. Don Voegt
    ‏

    @Donvoegt
    8m8 minutes ago
    More
    Antony Green of @abcnews says the “new” #Newspoll is just a rounding off error (or a change in calculating) So he suggests there is really no change other than a slight shift to minor parties. #AusVotes19

  44. I like that take on it though “So called Social Services minister thinks caring for children = communism” Brilliant

  46. Jackol – GetUp relies in hundreds of thousands of dollars from the ALP/Unions. Its’ Board Members are ALP/Unions. It is the archetypal astroturf organisation.

  47. Alex Turnbull tweets…

    So my takeaway from the last 24 hours is if people can be bothered to do undergraduate level dirty tricks campaigns against an Independent campaign the internal LNP numbers probably are not great. Utterly bizzare. #auspol 

  49. “Ms Stewart told The New Daily via text message that she believes she was the subject of a dirty tricks campaign.

    “It is definitely a hoax targeting me and my campaign. We don’t know who is behind it,” she said.

    Asked if she planned to refer the matter to police Ms Stewart said: “I’m sorry I can’t give you anything further at the moment.”

    ReachTEL founder and UComms co-owner James Stewart has confirmed his company has not done Curtin-specific research during the election campaign.

    Mr Turnbull said he had sent an email to the address on the polling information before it was shut down. The network communication tool indicated it was “very close” to an MP’s office.

    The New Daily has chosen not to name the MP.

    Finance Minister Mathias Cormann told The West Australian on Monday that Ms Stewart needed to explain her involvement in the fake poll.

    “The independent candidate must fully disclose her involvement in this deception. If she can’t she should pull out,” he said.

    Earlier, Ms Stewart told the newspaper she had been supplied the poll by a third party but declined to say who it was.

    “The campaign was supplied with polling data from a third party, the results of which matched our experience on the ground in Curtin,” she said.”

  50. I’ve just prepolled at a centre in Burt (safe Labor), though I live in Pearce.

    Other than Labor and Liberal there was someone from the Greens, UAP and PHON handing out HTV’s. Burt is a sale Labor seat and I was very surprised to see that UAP and PHON were handing out HTV’s. My speculation is that they are paying people to hand the HTV’s out as they would not have the depth of volunteers required to cover winnable seats, never mind unwinnable ones like Burt.

    I was looking forward to putting Porter last in Pearce until I saw the basket of deplorables that crawled out of the primordial soup to nominate for Pearce. I couldn’t bring myself to preference the likes of PHON, the Australian Christians, the UAP or the SFF above Porter. I will spend all day Saturday door knocking as penance for not putting Porter last.

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