I lack the energy to offer much in the way of a post-mortem at this late hour, except to say this was a remarkably status quo result. The Coalition dropped around 3% on the statewide primary vote, and Labor and the Greens about 1% apiece, so presumably the Coalition landed somewhere between 53% and 54% on the two-party vote. This is a couple of points better than the polls suggested, making this the first election result in a very long time that surprised on the up side for the Coalition (UPDATE: Thanks to NathanA in comments for jogging my memory about Tasmania last year). To a certain extent, that might be explained in terms of the Newspoll, with its Tuesday to Thursday field work period, only picking up part of a final week shift away from Labor – although it doesn’t explain an exit poll that was in line with the two-party result.
The Coalition went into the election needing to restrict its losses to six to retain its majority, and it is only clear that they have lost three. Two of these losses were to Shooters Fishers and Farmers, who had a rather spectacular night in picking up all three of their target seats, with Barwon and Murray joining their existing seat of Orange (I was suggesting the Nationals were more likely to retain Barwon quite late in my election night commentary, but they actually have a very handy lead there). Labor’s only clear gain is Coogee, which they now look to have in the bag, although by a lower than expected margin. It looks like they will fall short in East Hills and Penrith, but I will keep an eye on those all the same. Independent Mathew Dickerson has come close against the Nationals in Dubbo, but he is slightly behind and independents tend to lose ground in late counting.
The one seat on which I have crunched numbers is Lismore, which is likely but not certain to be lost by the Nationals. The question is whether it will be lost to Labor, who lead the notional two-party candidate, or the Greens, who had an unexpectedly good night despite the drop in their statewide vote, retaining their three existing seats of Balmain, Newtown and Ballina, and being well in the hunt in Lismore to boot. The two-party count has Labor with a lead of 1840, which looks too much for the Nationals to reel in – they should gain about 500 when pre-polls that have thus far been counted only on the primary vote are added, and the 2015 results suggest they will gain a further couple of hundred when absents and postals are added. However, Labor candidate Janelle Saffin holds a lead of just 24.85% to 23.90% over the Greens, and the race to stay ahead at the last exclusion could go either way. If the Greens win, they will certainly get enough preferences from Labor to defeat the Nationals UPDATE: Didn’t have my thinking cap on there – they may very well fail to get enough Labor preferences to do so.
The basic election night count for the Legislative Council accounts for 48.4% of enrolled voters, and only provides specific results for above-the-line votes for seven parties, when an “others” total that lumps together above-the-line votes for all other parties, and below-the-line voters for all and sundry. The only votes identified as informal at this point are those ballot papers that were left entirely blank – less obviously informal votes are presently in the “others” pile. Disregarding that complication, the current numbers show a clear seven quotas for the Coalition, six for Labor, two for the Greens, one apiece for One Nation and Shooters, leaving four to be accounted for.
The Coalition has enough of a surplus to be in the hunt for one of those; Labor probably doesn’t; One Nation look in the hunt for a second seat; the Christian Democrats and Animal Justice are both possibilities. The wild card is that three quotas under “others”, which would maybe a third of a quota’s worth of below-the-line votes for the seven main parties. My very late night feeling is that the Liberal Democrats (i.e. David Leyonhjelm), Australian Conservatives and Keep Sydney Open might all be in contention.
It is meant to be a different blue from that of the flag of Scotland. In fact, the flag of Scotland blue has also lightened in recent time to look more like the UN blue. Which is way to wishy washy for me and I suggest for Scotland, but probably suits the UK.
Put me down for a 52/48 ALP/LNP in newspoll thanks, and a slight shift to Morrison as PPM. The Australian will melt down re: recovery.
Barnaby will wreck it all over the next two weeks.
re sprocket_’s image of the Sunday Times front page, with the words “Cabinet coup to ditch May for emergency PM” and “Deputy lined up to take over”
Posting here, coz this is where everyone is.
This is desperation. May is leader of the Conservative Party and can’t be replaced until the end of the year. How do make your deputy leader an Emergency PM?
“You just make a real difference to peoples everyday life and you don’t rely on rhetoric, dog whistling and scare campaigns.”
You make a big difference in office. Dan only squeezed back in 4 years ago because of the unexpectedly terrible first term LNP Government in the previous 4 years, plus the protest against the terrible Abbott government (the 2014 Vic Election was only 6 months after the all time political disaster of the 2014 federal budget). The big swing happened after 4 years of good government.
You may not like it Rex, but the big swing of the last NSW Labor Government occurred in 1999 and this was repeated in 2003. In 1991 the arrogance of Greiner saw a hung parliament and Carr barely improved his situation in 1995 (it is the stuff of political legend that majority government was only secured in the last bundle of papers out of the last box to be counted in Di Beamer’s seat of Mulgoa – where 70 postal votes remarkably broke to labor).
Until you obtain government you can’t actually do anything other than provide a sense of hope and confidence that you represent a safe choice: that’s NSW Labor’s task. You’re inane nonesense about ‘dark elements’ simply does progress that task one iota Rex, because the obvious and industrial scale ‘dark elements’ in nsw these days are all on one side – the one that just got re-elected.
On insiders Mike Bowers showed a very hard hitting cartoon by Cathy Wilcox. Can anyone source it please?
Can’t believe I am going to say this but I feel sorry for NSW……
Red13
If you listen to last night’s Morrison speech (I know, a painful exercise) he distinctly said – in 2 months time I will be back here to celebrate again, or words to that effect. He’ll call the election very soon.
This will be either a very small liberal national majority……. or a hung parliament where the coalition are in a minority of 1 or 2 seats.
I think labor will win East Hills…. based on a very good performance in the so far uncounted prepoll votes. I also point out another historical fact where a government wins a unexpected and undeserved Victory the next election often tends to be a Landslide against the other side
eh Federal 2004 and 2007 , Federal 1993 and 1996. nsw 2007 and 2011
There are reasons for this…. very hard to blame the other side, harder to pass legislation and complacancy…. We cannot loose now
Further to Menzies increasing Company and personal tax rates – and increasing the pension – with Holt as treasurer, Fraser saying the Liberal Party is no longer a Liberal Party and the absence of such as Chaney, McPhee, Georgiou and others replaced by IPA operatives, one question
What impact did the deposed Turnbull have in the last week supporting the NSW Premier as a true Liberal?
A description you could imagine he would not attach to the current Federal Government – although he may support individual Members given they have not already resigned
MOG – that cartoon was in one of last week’s roundups by BK
How will these results transfer Federally ?
I cannot understand how the mess for the Liberals did not cause an adverse swing in either Kiama and South Coast and the loss of one or both of these seats…………
“The major implication of this state result for the upcoming federal poll is water management.
Environmental river flows vs irrigation supply. That is now a major issue for all parties to win the confidence of voters.”
Agree, Rex – especially in electorates like Farrer where those who got Ley elected by 200+ votes 18 years ago are now doing everything they can to get her out. It also hasn’t been forgotten that Farrer included Menindee Lakes and the river of ‘a million dead fish’ until boundary redistribution three years ago. Ley is on the record prior to this saying she believes the Lakes were in danger and that she would fight for irrigators. A local newspaper once used this headline: “Desperately Seeking Sussan” because that has been the growing sentiment for years.
Mick – sorry mate you are as delusional after polling day as you were before.
Libs will win EH. Any similarity to 2015 after vote figures will give her a win.
I recall you thought Kiama was going to fall. Well old son Gareth Ward won every booth, including Albion Park Rail.
If this blog is to be a considered and proper analysis of phesology, and trends, then you shouldn’t post why your ant to happen rather try to analyse what is likely to happen.
Coalition will end up with 48 seats. I’ll take that any day…
Gladys now owes the Daily Telegraph dirty tricks unit big time for the Daley so-called “racist” video.
I wonder how Rupert intends to cash in?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #103 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 10:32 am
Ignore the cancer in Sussex St at your peril.
Andrews won in 2014 because voters saw an achievable infrastructure plan that would realistically improve their lives. Of course the state and federal Libs at the time re-affirmed voters confidence in giving Andrews the keys to Treasury Place.
Daley and the NSW Labor right relied on only one of those above… and paid the price for their arrogant and rhetorical campaign based on negativity.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/03/2019-new-south-wales-postcount-lismore.html
Lismore postcount – I think that Saffin will win.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/03/2019-new-south-wales-wrap-and-lower.html
Wrap and lower house postcount – I think the Nationals will win Dubbo, East Hills is still up in the air though it seems Labor would have to have done amazingly well on the one uncounted big prepoll.
Sorry if already posted. A look at how far back FauxMo has been kicking muslims. Smug bigotted happy clapper that he is.
https://newpolitics.com.au/2019/03/18/scott-morrison-racism/
Although I am a solid left of centre voter – the current NSW Labor do not deserve to be voted in – I think I am not alone in this. Gladys is my local member and she comes across as thorough and across her brief – even though I don’t like her policies (apart from investing in public transport) – she is competent. NSW Labor don’t appear to be yet. Hopefully next time they will have some thought out policies and a decent leader…
I think people know enough to distinguish Federal and State politics and this is very good for Shorten. People can now vote for Federal Labor with no danger of Federal/State both being Labor and being too aggressive policy wise. I expect a good swing in the upcoming election to Labor. Well I can dream.
That was a Big disappointment to be sure. And the big lesson for the “Liberals”? Smear works. Lies work. Negativity works – especially when your friends control the major media outlets. Expect a lot more in the main game coming up.
Early yesterday evening I was listening to the election coverage on ABC News Radio while on the freeway driving home from Newcastle. What a dog’s breakfast, a real amateur hour. No one seemed to know what they were doing, they couldn’t find Antony Green, someone kept banging on about sausages, they kept switching over to beeps and buzzes and dead air. Eventually, they found Antony, who called it for the Government at 8:00PM. By then a raging thunderstorm was in progress. The sensible drivers (including me) had slow down to 50-60 km/h. I switched over to music.
“why so many cartoons supporting the false narrative of John McCain as a “war hero”?”
Apart from his fighter bomber piloting which involved the risk of being shot down, maimed or killed during many missions, McCain survived many years of captivity, appalling treatment and torture.
When offered a chance for release he refused to go until others were released before him.
This was a deliberate life-threatening decision.
Plus, no bone spurs.
Confessions
Regardless of what he said last night.
As I said above, in his office there is NO work going on in regard to a date being picked for the poll in May. No constructive conversation about the subject at all!!!
The Backbench have told him emphatically they do want a May poll, and so far he has made no move to debate the merits of going early or late internally.
I imagine he will wait until post Budget to gauge reaction both externally and internally to the Party before exercising his perogative as PM to choose and announce.
Mogotrone @ #104 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 10:32 am
Postal will whittle away at Labor in coming days.
Turkeys voting for Christmas.
Red13 @ #122 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 10:52 am
It’s May 18th. Bookmark it.
As far as implications for Fed LNP out of NSW – I can’t see anyone outside NSW being influenced – apart from us polling nerds — those beyond the state in question barely register what goes on at a state level in other states.
Besides, state govt is all about service delivery and little about national vision or direction.
I think that if Morrison grasps this fall over the line as impetus for a turn in his fortunes, he is deluded.
Just skimming through all of this I don’t see an awful lot of comment about the fact that Labor would have done an awful lot better had it taken the last four years to develop comprehensive, well thought out, detailed policy – particularly in transport.
The electoral map for NSW Labor in 2023 still looks very challenging based on results so far. Only 3 coalition seats in the 0-2% range (East Hills, Penrith and Upper Hunter) then the next seats on the pendulum are in the 4-5% range (Tweed, Goulburn, Holsworthy and Heathcote). That would only get Labor to 43 – but probable minority government. The next bracket of seats to get to 47 is in the 5.7-7% range (Wollondilly, Bega, Riverstone and Seven Hills). I assume there’ll be a redistribution before 2023 but I don’t know that it will necessarily make it any easier for the ALP. The reality is that when there’s a big “voters with baseball bats election” – and the NSW coalition is inevitably edging closer to that with every passing week – outsize swings tend to happen in the right places, and the old pattern gets broken. Still it’s a tough map for Daley, or whoever, next time around.
“The Backbench have told him emphatically they do want a May poll, and so far he has made no move to debate the merits of going early or late internally.”
It’s too late to go early. I suppose Scott could call the election today and go on April 27 but then he’ll have to ditch the Budget. To have an April 2 Budget the earliest date would be May 11.
Jen, its true that state government is mostly about service delivery.
But when it comes to transport, vision and attention to detail matter.
Rex
‘It’s not hard to get a swing swing as Daniel Andrews has demonstrated.’
Daniel Andrews didn’t get close to a 7% swing – and the swing he did get was impressive.
Which is what I’m talking about…a statewide swing of that magnitude is a very rare event.
If the election went on Tony Abbott’s theory
The political party with the. Highest primary vote and the highest number of seats , between labor and liberal party
Labor won the nsw election
Labor has35 seats.
Liberal party 34 seats
Labor primary vote. 33.2
Liberal primary vote 32.2
Cud Chewer @ #129 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 11:04 am
IS Jodie MacKay the ALP transport spokesperson? She was very unimpressive on the dire ABC coverage, so they need a few changes to the team that could actually support Daley with policy development.
Not disputing about transport Cud – especially here in NSW. BUT to anyone beyond the border, what the Coalition did here is moot. They would be paying as much attention as they would to a 3rd grade cricket team.
It isn’t the main game and isn’t a source of pride/disillusionment/embarrassment or whatever, like a federal govt that is truly on the nose, is.
Just to cheer you all up A replay of Costello telling you to, quote, ” work to you drop”.
.
.
60 Minutes Australia: Work till you drop (2017)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=100&v=xy7aqmFTM0g
Not many people on NSW Trains today in Sydney, are they embarrassed?
Daniel Andrews didn’t get close to a 7% swing – and the swing he did get was impressive.
Which is what I’m talking about…a statewide swing of that magnitude is a very rare event.
———————-
True, Andrews didn’t get a swing that size at either election he’s won. You’d probably have to go back to the 2002 Brackslide to find a swing of that order in a Victorian State election. Still, the swing to Labor in NSW this time looks like around 1% at the moment. This seems sub-par in circumstances where there’s a second term government up for re-election that won fairly easily last time and had a fair bit of electoral fat. That seems especially to be the case where it’s been a troubled government, running for re-election in an environment that’s generally not favourable for conservatives.
Thanks fess
Just watched the show. Good episode. I didn’t realise Eric Swawell had already proposed a bill on banning assault rifles.
Wonderful night for the Greens, regardless of what happens in Lismore which is anyone’s guess. In an election where everyone in the MSM was writing the NSW Greens off and saying the party was about to split in two, they really did surpass all expectations. Rather than splitting in two, the NSW Greens now look stronger than ever. It’s a perfect example of how the right wing media’s narrative is often based more on wishful thinking and flatout false propaganda than it is on reality. Were there disagreements between a couple of Greens? Yes. Does anyone really care? No, least of all Greens supporters themselves who care far more about issues which actually matter. We don’t care if one Greens MP likes another Greens MP. Sometimes people just don’t get along. The thing is though that they don’t have to always get along, nor should they be expected to. All they have to do is do exactly what they said they would do when campaigning to be elected and that is why the Greens continue to retain the support that they do.
Drew Bowie
@Drew_Bowie
Don’t know who that is, but they left out climate change policy and selling off TAFE and reducing funding to public schools.
You’re right, Berejiklian is running an appalling government filled with spivs and vandals, and NSW is about to get its first taste of a government run by the Christianist hard-right, with Perrotet lurking in the shadows, ready to wield the knife and take over.
The fact that NSW Labor was not able to make this clear to voters is yet another indictment of their campaign.
And why did NSW Labor so quickly and easily lose momentum? Because it had nothing of substance to offer the voters. No real solutions offered on transport – except a toll cashback, cancelled rail lines, and a review of train timetables. Labor has known for eight years that they cannot win in Sydney unless they actually have something to offer on this issue, but still, at two elections, they’ve had nothing to say. I simply don’t understand. I don’t even live in Sydney and I KNOW transport is the central issue in Sydney.
Even on health and education, Labor had nothing real to say: no over-arching policy vision, no reforms, no story – just a cash splash here and there.
The environment is what will really suffer from NSW Labor’s failure at this election. That’s the central reason why I am so angry and upset at their incompetence.
Daley should not remain leader. He did in three months what Shorten has never done in six years, and that’s demonstrate an incredible lack of political judgement, and a preference for stunts over policy substance.
You’re right that there is no obvious contender for leader, and that’s the biggest indictment of the NSW ALP of all.
As an aside, Bob Carr should not be looked to for any kind of advice. He is a big part of the reason why NSW Labor has such a lack of credibility on transport.
max
Yes, I’m more pointing out that people shouldn’t have got over excited to start with — which is why they’re feeling so let down now.
**I ignore NSW politics on principle.
However, I must say the NSW result is what I would have predicted the federal result in 2016 to look like (if I’d been tipping it a year or so out…) — the dissatisfaction with the government expressing itself by the election of Greens/indies/minors, without translating directly to Labor votes.
+1
Sure is. I’ve actually sat down and talked with her about transport and it was a depressing experience.
mick Quinlivan @ #112 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 10:41 am
Local Labor party members tell me they never expected to win South Coast because Shelley Hancock is actually a pretty good local candidate.
Different ball-game federally, where I expect Labor will win (in Gilmore).
Jen there aren’t many things more important than transport at the state level.
It is a shame that matters such as Police being able to search your home without a warrant, destruction of TAFE, the influence of Alan Jones and wealthy mates, lack of social housing, closing of women’s refuges, land clearing, fish kill and the inequity of having to pay tolls just didn’t get any oxygen.
The disregard for those less well off in our society really upsets me. Those, who through no fault of their own, living on the streets should cause us real shame….. the strongest, instead of governing for all ,have ambushed and stolen our public assets to line the pockets of their ilk.
Vale, land of the fair go!!
JimmyD
Yep re BC. He was more interested in US civil war trivia than rooting out the rotten bustards. 🙁