New South Wales election: the morning after

A quick and dirty review to an election result that proved surprisingly similar to the one in 2015.

I lack the energy to offer much in the way of a post-mortem at this late hour, except to say this was a remarkably status quo result. The Coalition dropped around 3% on the statewide primary vote, and Labor and the Greens about 1% apiece, so presumably the Coalition landed somewhere between 53% and 54% on the two-party vote. This is a couple of points better than the polls suggested, making this the first election result in a very long time that surprised on the up side for the Coalition (UPDATE: Thanks to NathanA in comments for jogging my memory about Tasmania last year). To a certain extent, that might be explained in terms of the Newspoll, with its Tuesday to Thursday field work period, only picking up part of a final week shift away from Labor – although it doesn’t explain an exit poll that was in line with the two-party result.

The Coalition went into the election needing to restrict its losses to six to retain its majority, and it is only clear that they have lost three. Two of these losses were to Shooters Fishers and Farmers, who had a rather spectacular night in picking up all three of their target seats, with Barwon and Murray joining their existing seat of Orange (I was suggesting the Nationals were more likely to retain Barwon quite late in my election night commentary, but they actually have a very handy lead there). Labor’s only clear gain is Coogee, which they now look to have in the bag, although by a lower than expected margin. It looks like they will fall short in East Hills and Penrith, but I will keep an eye on those all the same. Independent Mathew Dickerson has come close against the Nationals in Dubbo, but he is slightly behind and independents tend to lose ground in late counting.

The one seat on which I have crunched numbers is Lismore, which is likely but not certain to be lost by the Nationals. The question is whether it will be lost to Labor, who lead the notional two-party candidate, or the Greens, who had an unexpectedly good night despite the drop in their statewide vote, retaining their three existing seats of Balmain, Newtown and Ballina, and being well in the hunt in Lismore to boot. The two-party count has Labor with a lead of 1840, which looks too much for the Nationals to reel in – they should gain about 500 when pre-polls that have thus far been counted only on the primary vote are added, and the 2015 results suggest they will gain a further couple of hundred when absents and postals are added. However, Labor candidate Janelle Saffin holds a lead of just 24.85% to 23.90% over the Greens, and the race to stay ahead at the last exclusion could go either way. If the Greens win, they will certainly get enough preferences from Labor to defeat the Nationals UPDATE: Didn’t have my thinking cap on there – they may very well fail to get enough Labor preferences to do so.

The basic election night count for the Legislative Council accounts for 48.4% of enrolled voters, and only provides specific results for above-the-line votes for seven parties, when an “others” total that lumps together above-the-line votes for all other parties, and below-the-line voters for all and sundry. The only votes identified as informal at this point are those ballot papers that were left entirely blank – less obviously informal votes are presently in the “others” pile. Disregarding that complication, the current numbers show a clear seven quotas for the Coalition, six for Labor, two for the Greens, one apiece for One Nation and Shooters, leaving four to be accounted for.

The Coalition has enough of a surplus to be in the hunt for one of those; Labor probably doesn’t; One Nation look in the hunt for a second seat; the Christian Democrats and Animal Justice are both possibilities. The wild card is that three quotas under “others”, which would maybe a third of a quota’s worth of below-the-line votes for the seven main parties. My very late night feeling is that the Liberal Democrats (i.e. David Leyonhjelm), Australian Conservatives and Keep Sydney Open might all be in contention.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

687 comments on “New South Wales election: the morning after”

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  1. ” why so many cartoons supporting the false narrative of John McCain as a “war hero”?”

    Never thought of McCain. I see these cartoons as pointing out the true narrative about Trump and his failure to show any of the character traits that the exceptional americans have always boasted about – I remember Superman and his mantra of Truth Justice and the American Way.

    I thought that speaking ill of the dead – well the white dead – was not part of the American Way even if the dead person was a total tool.

  2. Glad to hear Grant turned it down – not that I was scared he’d run, but because he made a big thing before the last election wtte about the integrity of politics, especially with indigenous rights, and not feeling political parties show that at the moment … well you can’t say Libs have any integrity now so for him to accept would have been disingenuous.

  3. Fess

    I am liking Eric Swawell. If be announced as presidential candidate it will be interesting to see how well he does.

    Meanwhile Trump is in Mara a Lago working out his next move.
    No doubt the offer to resign is still before him. What will he do?

  4. After an LNP win wherever it happens, I feel flat and disappointed. This time I feel worse, considering the members elected such as Latham, who has turned around and become a racist dog and determined to blame the ALP for all his woes.

  5. There is one thing what some people who i talked too , can not understand how the liberal and national partys are not in trouble deliberate electoral misleading why doesn’t the AEC do anything

    Out side of QLD
    If the Liberal and National partys are different entities from each other , why are National party members on the offical liberal party websites ,and why are the liberal party members allowed to campaign for the national party and vice versa

  6. Malcolm Turnbull wrote a supporting piece for GladysB on Friday, and did some campaigning with Notley-Smith in Coogee, the only seat Liberals lost in Sydney.

    He certainly is in town, and keeping a close eye on political proceedings. And is not yet done with exacting revenge on those who knifed him.

    I notice he is starting to accept speaking gigs with big banks, like this one this week in Hong Kong. He usually makes himself available for doorstops afterwards, so like Banquo’s Ghost, he will be hovering

    https://www.credit-suisse.com/microsites/conferences/aic/en/speakers/speakers/malcolm-turnbull.html?aa_cmp=socm_coco_apac_201903_aic2019pre_conf_twitter_na_cf15_eng_aic00592

  7. I know there us a Brexit thread, but I’m going to post here.

    Bevan Shields Retweeted

    BBC Politics
    @BBCPolitics
    #PeoplesVoteMarch organisers say more than a million people joined protests in central London
    [tap to expand]
    (link: https://bbc.in/2FxTmND) bbc.in/2FxTmND #Brexit

  8. I dont buy the argument that the NSW state election will have much of an impact on the federal seats there. Reid, Robertson, Banks and Gilmore are gone already. Lindsay is probably the only question mark.

  9. Sprocket

    I am hoping for a well timed revengeful action by Turnbull against Morrison. Couldn’t happen to a more deserving person

  10. Muskiemp says:
    Sunday, March 24, 2019 at 9:30 am
    After an LNP win wherever it happens,

    —————
    I dont call it a win for the libs/nats

    Libs/nats did not win, any more seats then they had in 2015
    Libs/nats lost seats from 2015 , they were retained ,as the incumbent

  11. Poroti

    What I want to happen is that Brexit does not proceed. Revoke article 50 and Brexit can die on the vine.
    Bojo and the rest of the Tory cheersquad should be run out of town. Deceitful lot of ursurpers

  12. Oh good. So tomorrow we may wake up to PM BoJo

    What is with the blue in the Union Jack? Are Tories trying to change it to their colour?

  13. Banks I would not call federally yet. It covers the seats of kogarah Oakley and east hill in NSW which all moved toward the liberals in this election

  14. I would like to put out a big thanks to ABC radio who, all day on Friday, were plugging the line that the polls were saying tight race even though the NSW government were scandal free and had produced a booming economy. And the SMH – very helpful editorial to guide uncertain voters.
    It all goes to show, that in todays media environment, the ALP need a charismatic leader to have any sway in the media cycles.

    Having said that – after what happened back in the bad old days, they probably deserve it.

  15. Morning all. Thanks BK. A disappointing result, but the reasons are plain. It isn’t just media bias (which there was). Labor leaders need to wear one of those WWJD wrist bands and ask “what would Jacinda do” before they open their mouths. I think Daley is an essentially decent and fair minded leader, and should be retained. He will learn from this.

    The good news is that Gladys kept ScumMo in his box until after counting was done to win this. ScumMo and the Nats are still electoral poison. Rural NSW seats are still in play. Plus, there are still all the cases of rorts and abuse of funds at Federal level. And all the economic problems evident are relevant to the federal government too, including wage stagnation.

    A plus in my work is that governments that spend money improving public transport are getting electoral benefit. The final good bit of news out of this is that Labor will have to have a climate change policy to win at Federal level. You should not become PM just by having a small target strategy.

  16. FWIW, after what seems like an exhausting NSW election, I am still gathering Federal Newspoll guesses. I will switch back to watching the main thread, but…

    PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-03-24

    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    PB mode: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 56

    NEW Guesses since last time
    ALP / LNP
    53 / 47 booleanbach
    54 / 46 poroti
    50 / 50 Sprocket_
    53 / 47 steve davis
    51 / 49 Zoidlord

  17. The point, Barrie, was that there only needs to be one rapist, murderer, pedophile to be able to label them all, all Muslims, as rapists, murderers and pedophiles. ‘You only need one’. Oh that they apply themselves to the same standards.

    I hadn’t watched the Project interview before. Morrison’s body language to Aly is perfectly in tune with his, and his govt’s, stance on Muslims – superior, patronising, and ultimately completely rejecting.

  18. Itza:

    My first impression upon seeing the Project interview was exactly that: Morrison as far superior than Waleed, and profoundly patronising towards him.

  19. If there’s one thing to take away from this election, it’s that small target strategies are often ineffective, especially against incumbents that are largely seen* as competent.

    I’m not making excuses for Daley here, but he wasn’t given much to work with policy wise. NSW Labor had not done the hard yards in policy development, and the party machine (and Foley) have to take some responsibility for that.

    State Govt’s are viewed as being responsible for doing stuff. Like it or not, being seen to be doing stuff counts, even if it’s not the best option*. A policy platform defined by what you are not going to do won’t cut it.

    * Yeah yeah, I know.

  20. Good morning all.

    Not a great night for the true believers. Terrible in fact. Apathy amongst the punters has seen the return of a terrible government, hiding behind the mirage of “we are doing stuff”. Strip away the PR and this government is every bit as bad as Labor’s last term and it has been since day one back in 2011. The third term of government is the one I call “the chicken roosting” term and the next four years won’t be pretty.

    I noticed this morning last night’s commentary about why Labor lost.

    I think the starting point is this: the result in individual seats appears to be very close to where Labor’s internal polling had things 12 days ago. However, at that point Labor had momentum, according to internal tracking polls and maintained this momentum throughout last weekend.

    What ever momentum Labor had last weekend was lost by the week of white noise that followed. Some of those Daley missteps may have directly cost some votes in the Asian community especially but I think the real problem was that he failed the pub test – by the end they thought him a bumbling fool and not the safe pair of hands they could trust while they indulged the desire to belt Gladys over the head with a baseball bat. Instead the protest vote was largely mainifetsmanifested in a vote for a minor party, or independent candidate with the rest of their ballot paper exhausted.

    It’s worth noting that all four major parties suffered state wide dips, yet Labor wasn’t able to capitalise: punters are not yet ready to trust Labor with the treasury benches to either vote directly for them or preference them.

    Yesterday morning I said that Labor would fall short in about a dozen seats it was targeting, and this was correct (although it represents a complete reversal of my earlier predictions up to the middle of last week). OPV has probably cost labor 2-3 seats, but certainly not government.

    The way forward? Putting my insider hat on again, I’ve had doubts about Daley as a future leader before he was elected. Some, but different doubts remain. If re-elected parliamentary leader he’ll have some fences to mend; but he shouldn’t let up on Alan Jones or the SCG Trust.

    As an aside:Taking a leaf out of the Federal Liberal Parties “let get square” book, I reckon a federal Royal Commission into how Infrastructure NSW managed to take an initially costed $130 million 10 year refurbishment and turn it it into a $700 million job (thereby proving the pretext for the ‘better to knock it down and rebuild’ argument) would be delicious.

    Of the other contenders for NSW Parliamentary Labor leader – Chris and Jodi: I don’t think either are up to it. Worse than Daley in the smarts stakes (and he’s no genius). Ultimately, who ever leads the party needs to urgently take a Bob Carr masterclass in how to run an opposition for a complete 4 year term: an integrated policy and messaging plan should work wonders.

    There is only one federal outtake – bearing in mind state issues and the effects of OPV – Banks and Reid will be harder to toss at the upcoming election than otherwise might appear the case. However, given the federal liberal omnishambles they will probably fall and the overall result will mean it won’t matter to the ultimate outcome even if the Libs retain these seats.

  21. Another stat which shows why it should not be called a win for the libs/nats

    the 4 main individual political partys

    left side
    Labor 33.2%
    The Greens 9.8%

    right side

    Liberal party 32.2%
    National 9.3%

  22. Scott (AnonBlock)
    Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 8:38 am

    I dont call it a win for the libs/nats

    Libs/nats did not win, any more seats then they had in 2015
    Libs/nats lost seats from 2015 , they were retained ,as the incumbent.
    ______________________________
    Maybe not a “win” but certainly retained Government. Perhaps I should have said “when Labor do not win”.

  23. A few thoughts on yesterday.

    The LNP were clear winners, in the sense they retained Government and exceeded expectations. They’ve lost a bit of skin, but if you can form Government, you won.

    Labor did not do well. It was evident from listening to Jodi McKay’s candid comments on ABC TV.

    The Greens and SFF both did well. I wonder to what extent this reflected Labor’s bad last week in the campaign?

    State Labor in NSW had a big hill to climb post-Obeid. A base position now of 47% 2PP is no disaster, and the Obeid factor will have gone next time.

    There must be a question mark over Daley. He did very well to get Labor to a competitive position so quickly, but he was exposed in the last week. Labor’s focus on stadiums was effective at the start of the campaign, but overshadowed the positive elements of Labor policy. Its hard to run an effective negative campaign from opposition against an incumbent that is generally perceived to do a good job. In that sense, yesterday’s outcome has some neat parallels with the 2018 Victorian result.

    Federal implications? Not a lot really. Certainly a morale booster for LNP and Greens, but no disaster for Labor. Shorten/Federal Labor has 6 yeas of stability and a set of positive policies. Shorten might not excite the hordes, but he is a true pro. He won’t be caught out on questions of detail. Plus Morrison is a stinker and the Federal LNP is in disarray, and broke. I suspect the State Libs in NSW won’t have much money left to fund a federal campaign, and MT won’t be coming good with a few million dollars to save the day!

    Overall, well done Gladys, NSW Labor has thinking to do but should not be despondent, and Shorten just needs to stay on track. Bring on May 18th!

  24. Fess

    Thanks.

    Bill Maher, like many are not seeing the main game.
    I continue to be confident that Trump, his family etc will be dealt with

  25. Confessions @ #74 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 10:03 am

    Itza:

    My first impression upon seeing the Project interview was exactly that: Morrison as far superior than Waleed, and profoundly patronising towards him.

    Confessions, I was actually shocked, and that’s coming off what I thought was a very low bar for Morrison, but obviously not low enough.

  26. Late Riser @ #191 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 9:57 am

    FWIW, after what seems like an exhausting NSW election, I am still gathering Federal Newspoll guesses. I will switch back to watching the main thread, but…

    PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-03-24

    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    PB mode: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 56

    NEW Guesses since last time
    ALP / LNP
    53 / 47 booleanbach
    54 / 46 poroti
    50 / 50 Sprocket_
    53 / 47 steve davis
    51 / 49 Zoidlord

    Chastened by my fellow NSW spivs, I humbly request a reset of my vainglorious 57 (+1 per week) for Newspoll & essential. 55/45 for both please.

  27. Gabrielle Chan comments…

    If Barnaby Joyce thinks #NSWVotes result is about messaging, he is not listening. It’s about doing the groundwork.
    1ST PREF VOTES VIA ABC
    Dubbo +28.5% IND
    Nat -24.8%
    Barwon +33.5% SFF
    Nat -17.8%
    Murray +21.8% SFF
    Nat -19.8%
    Wagga +45.3% IND
    Nat -27.3%
    Orange +50.6% SFF
    Nat -40.2%

  28. zoomster @ #33 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 8:57 am

    Posters here don’t seem to understand how hard it is to get a big swing.

    A swing in the 6-7% range, statewide, would have been gobsmacking.

    I remember Labor under Kennett getting a swing to it of something in the 2-3% range. New to politics, I thought this was a dismal effort – in fact, at the time, it was a record swing to an Opposition in its first term.

    Governments in Australia usually sit on around 51% of the vote, which usually means only a small swing is required.

    Getting 6-7% at the individual seat level happens more often, but it’s usually to do with particular issues to do with that individual seat rather than being an indication of something wider.

    It’s not hard to get a swing swing as Daniel Andrews has demonstrated.

    You just make a real difference to peoples everyday life and you don’t rely on rhetoric, dog whistling and scare campaigns.

    It says everything about NSW Labor that some of their partisans here wish Daley to continue.

    The ‘dark elements’ need to be exorcised. Emma knows it and most other non-partisans know it.

  29. Well said Andrew Earlwood, Scott and Outsider you have summed up my thoughts exactly.
    However, I still think Morrison will not have a House Of Reps election in May, there is no talk in his office of any date in May as of yet.
    His Backbenchers are unified in their opposition to a poll in May.

  30. So channel 7 advertising a congaline of RWNJ as their panel didn’t work for them, though I noticed the excellent Jenny Macalister did turn up on the night.

    #TVratings Saturday #nswvotes #nswpol (Metro)
    #ABC NSW Votes 2019 Election Results Live 156/127/104k
    #Nine NSW Decides Analysis 129k Live results 117k
    #Seven NSW State Election 2019 98k

  31. Summary on Brexit march

    5h ago
    05:04
    Summary: Over a million people march for a people’s vote
    Official figures put the numbers at the central London march today at over one million.
    Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon told the rally in Parliament Square that “the prime minister and her government have proved completely incapable of delivering on the result of the 2016 vote, which is why it is right that this should now go back to the people.”
    Margaret Georgiadou, the “frustrated remainer” behind the petition to revoke article 50 has received a string of death threats over her challenge to the Brexit process.
    Deputy Leader of the Labour party Tom Watson told the crowds in Parliament Square: “Theresa May: you don’t speak for us.”

  32. “Labor lost. NSW is now officially for sale”

    Only to mates. Specifically what is being sold are monopoly rights to extract economic rents via a series of mcguffins: the West Connex mcguffin, the light rail mcguffin, the land titles mcguffin, the desal mcguffin, the polls and wires mcguffin are just some of the known examples. The punters who voted against self interest are the real fungible commodity for sale, to maaates. As I said, worse than labor’s last term, from day one.

  33. Very sad to see the ALP lose in NSW, although it was not completely unexpected. A lot of people seem to forget just how invisible and ineffective the ALP had become under Foley, and Daley was always going to struggle to turn that around. Now, he will not get the chance, because of course he should resign.

    However, the worst thing for NSW ALP is that this was an election they desperately needed to win, because they have little hope of gaining traction in the next few years. There is just not enough depth in the ALP team in NSW, and they seem unable to articulate any actual policies. Which – given all the catastrophes that are looming large over the next decade (both environmental and financial) – seems more than a little odd.

    But I am most sorry for NSW residents (including myself!). Regional NSW will continue to decline, as it has in the last few decades … under all governments … and Sydney will become even more unlivable … if that were possible 🙁

    However, I don’t see many federal implications in this result. As others have noted, the situation for federal Labor is somewhat different – they have a better leader, better policies, and a clown for an opponent – but even there they struggle to articulate policies in key areas, such as climate change and population. In fact, they still appear to have no population policy at all, and this will hurt them at the election. (And just on that issue, I think that whatever damage Daley did with his “Asian PhDs” comment can be seen against the background of Labor’s failure to articulate a sensible population policy. If they had done so, such comments could have been debated in a constructive context, instead of simply a racist context).

    As a postscript – the ABC election coverage was simply woeful. Who thought it was a good idea to deploy the “B” team? (apart from Antony Green of course, but even he seemed to struggle a bit).

  34. opv introduction was not a wise choice for the alp long term. sure it is great if a party polls well but.. eg East Hills 12% was with left of centre parties but votes were taken from Labor and exhausted. which benefited the liberals. I suggest a change to introduce full preferences with a savings provision which links formality to voter intent….. a vote is formal to the extent that a voter intention can be identified

  35. I haven’t seen this mentioned anywhere else. What happened in Christchurch had surprisingly little impact on the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers outcome (which was mainly about water) but I do think some of the Jacinda Ardern magic might have helped to support Gladys as a leader.

  36. Player One @ #94 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 10:22 am

    Very sad to see the ALP lose in NSW, although it was not completely unexpected. A lot of people seem to forget just how invisible and ineffective the ALP had become under Foley, and Daley was always going to struggle to turn that around. Now, he will not get the chance, because of course he should resign.

    However, the worst thing for NSW ALP is that this was an election they desperately needed to win, because they have little hope of gaining traction in the next few years. There is just not enough depth in the ALP team in NSW, and they seem unable to articulate any actual policies. Which – given all the catastrophes that are looming large over the next decade (both environmental and financial) – seems more than a little odd.

    But I am most sorry for NSW residents (including myself!). Regional NSW will continue to decline, as it has in the last few decades … under all governments … and Sydney will become even more unlivable … if that were possible 🙁

    However, I don’t see many federal implications in this result. As others have noted, the situation for federal Labor is somewhat different – they have a better leader, better policies, and a clown for an opponent – but even there they struggle to articulate policies in key areas, such as climate change and population. In fact, they still appear to have no population policy at all, and this will hurt them at the election. (And just on that issue, I think that whatever damage Daley did with his “Asian PhDs” comment can be seen against the background of Labor’s failure to articulate a sensible population policy. If they had done so, such comments could have been debated in a constructive context, instead of simply a racist context).

    As a postscript – the ABC election coverage was simply woeful. Who thought it was a good idea to deploy the “B” team? (apart from Antony Green of course, but even he seemed to struggle a bit).

    The major implication of this state result for the upcoming federal poll is water management.

    Environmental river flows vs irrigation supply.

    That is now a major issue for all parties to win the confidence of voters.

  37. My 2c on last night, noting the Cons still don’t have majority government.

    I’m disappointed. Another term of govt by business for business; the people are just the pawns in this game. Another term of no lipstick or dancing. I am getting desperate for some progressive social policies, but will bide my time, again. It will come.

    I think the ‘finish the job’ thing was a big underlying factor in keeping the status quo. Punters didn’t know or understand what Labor was really proposing to do with the holes in the ground, including the Stadium – will they fix it up, pull it down, replace it, leave a hole in the ground. As someone pointed out up thread, the pics of Gladys in a half finished tunnel said a lot.

    I wonder if ratsak’s thoughts on the treasurer twat challenging Gladys will change now she is garlanded and applauded for, well, not much really.

    I think David Rowe’s cartoon the other day was totally predictive – Daley high kicking (that kick) Jones out of the field while a two dimensional and vacuous Gladys with a cheesy insecure grin swings in from behind clutching for dear life a huge wrecking ball called NSW.

  38. Simon Katich

    What is it with the blue in the Union Jack?
    ——————-
    The blue in the Union flag comes from the Scottish Saltire.

    But the blue in the Union flag is a different blue to the saltire blue? The Scottish Saltire is Europe’s oldest national flag but the blue was never fixed until the Scottish Parliament decided in 2003 that the Saltire blue is a “sky” blue.

    The Union flag uses a darker “royal” blue.

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