Newspoll have held off this week owing to the New South Wales election, resulting in one of the occasional three week gaps in their schedule. However, the fortnightly Essential Research will come through as normal this (i.e. Monday) evening. In other non-New South Wales news, moderate faction nominee and Christopher Pyne ally James Stewart won the Liberal preselection for Sturt on Saturday, consistent with expectations and despite resistance from conservatives who sought to make hay from the fact that the moderates had chosen not to back a woman. We also have a front page headline in The Australian this morning that reads, “Gladys triumph: PM eyes May 11”. Beyond that, over to you.
In regards the references to Gillard and a minority government, didn’t both the ALP and the Coalition (so Liberal, National and LNP) have equal numbers?
So the Coalition would have been a minority (and illegal?) government if the Indpendents had accepted the bribes and supported Abbott
The reason they did not support Abbott is now well established
That was the funniest Q&A ever.
I hope Teena McQueen is made official Liberal spokesperson for the campaign.
IoM @ #493 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 7:51 pm
And our best PM in recent years, Julia Gillard.
Observer
Gil Langley – all round good bloke except when Sturt played Glenelg.
Confessions says:
Monday, March 25, 2019 at 10:04 pm
I have to admit I was disappointed to learn Berejiklian isn’t gay. For a brief moment I got to enjoy the fact that she had succeeded as a woman leader in a party that is women repellent, AND succeeded as a woman leader in a same sex relationship in a party where the large numbers of its MPs only a year or so ago were actively trying to thwart equality for same sex couples.
+—————————————–
I have come in on the end of what may have been a one comment in a serious so I cast no aspersion on Confessions or anyone else who has commented. How is it in any way inportant whatever Berejiklian’s sexuality is. Much to my ire she has stuffed up my fantasy in won the election. I may not be willing to applaud her but WE should not try and smear her. Smearing should be left to the Murdoch and Costello media.
Confessions says:
Monday, March 25, 2019 at 10:04 pm
I have to admit I was disappointed to learn Berejiklian isn’t gay. For a brief moment I got to enjoy the fact that she had succeeded as a woman leader in a party that is women repellent, AND succeeded as a woman leader in a same sex relationship in a party where the large numbers of its MPs only a year or so ago were actively trying to thwart equality for same sex couples.
+—————————————–
I have come in on the end of what may have been a one comment in a serious so I cast no aspersion on Confessions or anyone else who has commented. How is it in any way inportant whatever Berejiklian’s sexuality is. Much to my ire she has stuffed up my fantasy in won the election. I may not be willing to applaud her but WE should not try and smear her. Smearing should be left to the Murdoch and Costello media.
SKY reporting Newspoll data that Morrison rebounding in Victoria by 4 points.
zoomster:
McQueen was clearly desperate to be a victim. Shades of Sophie Mirabella; no wonder you’re amused!
It’s not. Which is my point.
fess
Loved the way that, towards the end, Tony Jones realised he needed to explain things to her in really simple words. I was half expecting him to bring out the butcher’s paper and crayons if things got complex.
Nope – Labor had 72 to the LNP’s 73.
So it was
72 + Bandt + Wilkie + Oakeshott + Windsor = 76
To
73 + Katter = 74
Goodness, it’s so interesting to see so-called progressives excited about another three years of conservative government, because it’s not on their terms.
nath
says:
Monday, March 25, 2019 at 11:07 pm
SKY reporting Newspoll data that Morrison rebounding in Victoria by 4 points.
______________________________
The odd fellow that hosts this Front Page program says that the Coalition primary is at 40 in Victoria based upon Newspoll data coming out tomorrow.
zoomster:
Yes, and I particularly loved the way the American handled her.
Who was the on line political comedian and why did they think it had any relevance to you?
My prediction is Teena McQueen will be on Sunrise tomorrow after such a performance.
Why does Teena McQueen sound like a Jonny Young teenie pop star?
Gil Langley was from the day’s when you could play Test cricket and Inter-State AFL footy
Times have changed
I think Craig Bradley was the last to play senior footy and State cricket (just after Barrie Robran?)
Very interesting qanda tonight. Tony Burke & Roxanne Gay were stars, Furuqui did well as well … and Cowan, thong wrong on economic question, wasn’t vomitworthy.
Sadly, Teena McQueen reminded me of Trump … certainly no mental giant and a great advertisement for the Libs NOT using quotas, If that is the caliber of their women … might be better not to launch them into the limelight. Cracked laughing on twitter … John Kudelka asked if she was a recently activated sleeper agent for the ALP, to which JacktheInsider responded wtte “It’s marvellous what you can fashion out of one of Bronwyn Bishop’s nosehairs”
I nearly sprayed Coke Zero all over my keyboard!
The real Dave @ #514 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 8:12 pm
One can only hope….
J341983 says:
Monday, March 25, 2019 at 11:11 pm
Nope – Labor had 72 to the LNP’s 73.
So it was
72 + Bandt + Wilkie + Oakeshott + Windsor = 76
To
73 + Katter = 74
——————————————————————-
Tony Crook was a “WA National”, and hence not actually part of the Coalition. So, the “non-Labor” side of your equation should read:
Coalition 72 + Crook + Katter = 74
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Crook_(politician)
“Following the redistribution of O’Connor, where the seat lost the Mid West region and gained the Goldfields-Esperance region, Crook ran against Liberal incumbent Wilson Tuckey at the 2010 election where a hung parliament resulted. The WA Nationals campaigned as an independent party which would not “report, answer and take direction from (federal Nationals leader) Warren Truss”.
“Crook won with 28.85 percent of the primary vote, a swing to the WA Nationals of 19.68 percent, finishing with 53.56 percent of the two-party preferred vote. Crook campaigned on a platform of a Royalties for Regions policy on a national level, was against the Mineral Resource Rent Tax, and sought these interests in his discussions with the major parties over who would get Crook’s confidence and supply vote to form government.
“Crook stated he would sit as a crossbencher advocating the interests of regional Western Australia. “I’m clearly an independent,” he stated to reporters. “I can sit on the crossbenches quite comfortably.” Later, he added that “Tony Abbott urged me to consider my position and said to consider that I am a member of the Nationals. But I highlighted to him that although we are a federated body, the WA Nationals are an autonomous political organisation.” Crook said he had been disappointed by media coverage of the hung parliament, which counted him as part of the Coalition along with National MPs from east of the Nullarbor. “In every news report and press report we see, my number is being allocated in with the Coalition and it shouldn’t be,” he said. As mentioned above, the WA Nationals, unlike their federal counterparts, were not bound by any federal Coalition agreement. Crook stated that he was open to negotiating with either side to form government. On 6 September Crook declared his support for the Coalition on confidence and supply, but would otherwise sit on the crossbench. On 27 September Crook announced he would not be attending federal National Party of Australia party room meetings. Crook at times did vote for federal Labor government policies in parliament, contrary to the official position of the National Party of Australia.
“On 2 May 2012 Crook announced that from Tuesday 8 May, he would move from the cross benches to sit with his National Party colleagues. He did not, however, participate in joint Coalition meetings.”
nath @ #506 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 10:07 pm
As in, netsat, PPM, or TPP? Don’t care if it’s the first two; they’re meaningless metrics anyways.
the alliance with SFF cost the election – optics has it otherwise which is problem, creates fog of negativity – but no way that alliance would survive christchurch – SFF = ON + untouchables
Nath
Are you able to post a link for that?
I must say it accords with my feeling of the “vibe” that the 5% of swinging voter use to decide elections.
But living in one of the biggest Department of Housing estates in NSW, and seeing the daily evictions – literally, furniture on the street – I feel like crying. I guess I should take photos – someone should document these evictions so like the 1930s, in this very area.
Despite what many people think, the people on the Dept of Housing estate I live near have much more of “a go” that most people. Their poverty is third world-esque. They are now selling home-made bangles and other stuff in the street (just like Santiago de Chile in the recovery years from Pinochet), and they go through the garbage to find anything that may be useful.
But we are a community, and we support each other, and the Greens lady I was handing out next to at the peak Dept of Housing booth actually said that to me. I was pleased she noticed so quickly.
The re-election of the Berejiklian government means that this particular community will now be bulldozed. I am in private housing, but for the last 16 years I have been here everyone assumes I am in department of housing accomodation, so I get all the notices. And so many of my local friends are in Dept of Housing.
A federal Liberal govt will just seal the fate of my neighbours – now not only will they be evicted, but there will be no other possible housing for them, and no social safety net for them.
You are correct re: Crook 🙂
We don’t have any idea what this 40% number is, plus, it’s one data point. The NSW Libs were re-elected because they weren’t outwardly objectionable to many swing voters and the NSW Labor brand is still muddied.
Let’s calm down.
“An election must be in the winds as the Liberals send Arthur Sinodinos out everywhere. He’s their man on Qanda next week.”
That at least means that his health has presumably improved significantly, which is a good thing.
Observer
Alex Keath, who plays for the Crows, has played BBL and Shield for Victoria.
Confessions says:
Monday, March 25, 2019 at 11:07 pm
How is it in any way inportant whatever Berejiklian’s sexuality is.
It’s not. Which is my point.
———————–
Thank you, As I said I was coming in late and did not intend to judge anyone. It was a genuine question.
a r
says:
Monday, March 25, 2019 at 11:23 pm
nath @ #506 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 10:07 pm
SKY reporting Newspoll data that Morrison rebounding in Victoria by 4 points.
As in, netsat, PPM, or TPP? Don’t care if it’s the first two; they’re meaningless metrics anyways.
_____________________________
He said it was the Federal primary vote in Vic. The SKY News show “The Front page”. they read from tomorrows newspapers. No link sorry D&M.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/25/coal-more-expensive-wind-solar-us-energy-study
By 2025 the picture becomes even clearer, with nearly the entire US coal system out-competed on cost by wind and solar, even when factoring in the construction of new wind turbines and solar panels.
“We’ve seen we are at the ‘coal crossover’ point in many parts of the country but this is actually more widespread than previously thought,” O’Boyle said. “There is a huge potential for wind and solar to replace coal, while saving people money.”
Maybe it’s some of the state based Federal voting info they rarely publish. I think they do every so often a state breakdown of several months data. Perhaps it’s that, a several month climb in the Federal Coalition primary vote up from 36 to 40 in Vic.
I’ve seen some beauties on Q&A before but Teena McQueen certainly takes the biscuit. I’m not normally a Tony Burke fan but he handled it beautifully.
Observer
Great names – my favourite was Stan Wickham, back pocket for Glenelg and tram conductor. A journo wrote oce that Stan was so old and slow that he needed a bike. Next week Stan rode a bike on to the Bay oval. Huge cheers but those fun days were non professional.
Newspoll do quarterly break downs but we are still in the March quarter. Unless there is a special poll being released I think we have to be skeptical about this. It doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Yes, this will be the regularly quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll, but which will presumably be in The Oz soonish.
Oops my error forget my last post.
So we are talking about polling that has already happened?
Nath,
No problem about no link. It is about what I expect.
The evictions are horrible, but I now realise that I cannot change the polls, but maybe I can, being embedded in the community, document what is happening. Someone, someday, need to know how badly our community has been treated.
I had really hoped that the Berejiklian government would at worst be held to minority government, so the bulldozing of the estate would not happen. But now that she and her government have 4 years to do it, it will happen.
I was at an indigenous festival held on invasion day in these parts called Yabun, held in Victoria Park near Broadway Sydney. I happened to follow some sort of senior Policeman (going by the number of stars / ribbons on his shirtsleeves. He was saying to his offsider that within two years the Dept of Housing would be fine, and their big policing problems would also be gone. I was surprised at his assurance – I did actually on 26th Jan think that the coalition gives in NSW were vulnerable, but he was right and I was wrong.
Should I, like Arthur Dent, go and lay down in from of the bulldozers?
If the Coalition has climbed over the last quarter to 40% primary in Victoria, then I would say that it is close to game over for Labor.
Although, the Coalition only has a one seat majority, so maybe all is not lost.
The last Newspoll quarterly breakdown had Labor leading 56/44 in Victoria (https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/12/26/newspoll-quarterly-aggregates-october-december-2018/). Presumably, the SkyNews report is to the effect that Morrison’s bounce has reduced Labor’s lead in Victoria to 54/46
Max @ #530 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 8:32 pm
The Green kept complaining about not being given a chance to respond to the previous question, and even Tony Jones had to pull her up by remarking that she’d poll highly on the share mark ups of the show.
Douglas and Milko
says:
Monday, March 25, 2019 at 11:44 pm
If the Coalition has climbed over the last quarter to 40% primary in Victoria, then I would say that it is close to game over for Labor.
_______________________________
I’m no expert. But it seems to me a 40 for the Coalition in Victoria is not as bad as it would be in other states. The lack of support for other right wing parties here, ie. no PHON etc means that the ALP could still get a very strong 2pp with the coalition on 40 here. imho.
Douglas and Milko
Definitely document it. So sad but there will be no stopping Gladys now. Governing for all are hollow words
Yep. One of the funniest Q&A’s a ever. Worth checking on iView if you missed it. Even Jones was good. Roxane Gay very good, and Burke was polished, which was admittedly easy next to Teena.
Douglas and Milko
says:
Monday, March 25, 2019 at 11:41 pm
Nath,
No problem about no link. It is about what I expect.
The evictions are horrible, but I now realise that I cannot change the polls, but maybe I can, being embedded in the community, document what is happening. Someone, someday, need to know how badly our community has been treated.
___________________________________
Sorry to hear that D&M. Over the last 1o years I’ve come to know a few people who, because of the massive prices for housing in Melbourne have been forced to live for long periods in quite dysfunctional share houses. I don’t know how they do it. One of the things I particularly like about the Scandinavian welfare model is that they really recognise the importance of housing. If only.
The Coalition did a point better on average in the Newspolls in October-December than they did in January-March. The news that that was a shade higher in Victoria — and, by extension, a shade lower elsewhere — isn’t all that interesting.
Unless I wake up in the dead of night, I won’t be able to treat you to my usual overnight Essential Research post.
NSW voting intentions haven’t budget a smegging inch for federal 😀 sorry scrotty
Hmm. Greens primary lower in Victoria than New South Wales and Queensland.
#Newspoll VIC Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (+3) ALP 53 (-3)
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Fair drop from ALP 57 last year. Higgins and Kooyong looking safer you would think.
TPOF @ #498 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 10:55 pm
She thinks the greens are racist towards good christian white folk 😀 of course.
William Bowe @ #547 Tuesday, March 26th, 2019 – 12:30 am
Is the 3% change in vote within the MOE for Vic newspoll?