Federal election minus whatever

A new venue for general discussion of matters political, as the New South Wales election sucks the oxygen from the federal sphere.

Reflecting its confidence about its prospects in Victoria, Labor has traded in its existing prospect for the seat of Higgins, Josh Spiegel, for a higher profile model in the shape of barrister Fiona McLeod. That’s all I really have to relate at the moment, but a new federal politics and general discussion thread is required, and here it is. Note the new Brexit post from Adrian Beaumont below this one and, naturally, the latest New South Wales election post above.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

606 comments on “Federal election minus whatever”

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  1. I note the Liberals Sukkar and Andrews (along with 20 – paid? – “supporters” in their T Shirts) have been given extensive coverage on 9 promoting the so-called East-West Link – again

    Last Friday one of our sons took an early mark – leaving work at 4 and travelling to Alexander Parade then along the Eastern Freeway to home

    “Dad – it was a car park from Alexandra Parade to Springvale Road, never got above 40kph at any time and mostly below that including stopped Didn’t get home until 5.40. Serves me right for taking the car in – ironically because I was knocking off early and I thought it would get me home quicker”

    So, by extension, how will the correctly aborted East-West Link address the car park outwards – apart from maybe adding more traffic to the Eastern

    Then again they probably have Commonwealth drivers – waiting outside the MCG in case Carlton are getting a thrashing so leaving early

    My advice to our son? – vote Labor, to which he gave a description of Sukkar I cannot repeat and said that was a given

    Then we had the 9 puff piece on the Nationals Leader – apparently unknown to the electorate but married

  4. No sure where to post but it will be interesting to see if there will be SFF candidates in the Federal Election and where their preferences go. The same with One Nation preferences or will they do a split ticket. I am not sure about other areas I am in Adelaide but the United Australia Party have been spending Big thanks to Clive Palmer and think they will preference the LNP before the ALP but not sure ?

  6. An online petition calling on the government to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit has become the most popular petition ever submitted to the Parliament website.

    The petition, started in late February, reached over 4.16 million signatures on Saturday and has the highest rate of sign-ups on record, according to the official Petitions Committee.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-petition-article-50-revoke-record-website-deal-theresa-may-latest-a8836536.html

  7. Kieran Gilbert @Kieran_Gilbert
    7h7 hours ago

    Breaking: senior Liberals have told me they’ve been in talks with Stan Grant to run for them in the Sydney seat of Reid #auspol

  8. @TonyHWindsor
    7h7 hours ago

    70% of the landmass of NSW hasn’t voted for a major party ..why is this important …it represents much of the Great Artesian Basin and the Murray Darling River system in Australia and they are major victims of climate change …they are frightened for their future .#auspol

  9. ,
    lizzie says:
    Sunday, March 24, 2019 at 5:44 am
    @TonyHWindsor
    7h7 hours ago

    70% of the landmass of NSW hasn’t voted for a major party ..why is this important …it represents much of the Great Artesian Basin and the Murray Darling River system in Australia and they are major victims of climate change …they are frightened for their future .#auspol

    So they voted for SFF….for a party that will do absolutely nothing about climate change. Makes sense. The SFF is a throwback to the 19th century.

  10. Good point, Lizzie.
    And why are people in the west “frightened for their future”?
    Because they know what is happening because of climate change, and that our freshly renewed Sydney-centric Gov’t is part of the problem.

    It was instructive that the ABC commentary last night did not analyse why the Nats lost seats to the SFF. Too interested in the “Daley Gaff” to actually consider the real reasons for this historic change.
    Climate change issues have become far bigger than our pollies are prepared to admit.

  11. Liberal MP Tim Wilson sent 6000 unsolicited letters to superannuation trustees, including thousands who live outside his electorate, encouraging them to sign up to a Liberal party campaign against Labor’s franking credits policy, potentially putting him in breach of parliamentary spending guidelines.

    …The letter ends by asking its recipients whether they want to join the Liberal party campaign against the Labor policy, with the address of a website where individuals can register their details to volunteer in Liberal party activities including “door knocking … working on election day” and taking part in “media interviews”.

    However, guidelines from the department of finance state an MP’s printing and communication budget must not be used to “solicit subscriptions … for a member, political party or candidate”.

    The department’s guidelines also state commercial distribution services must only be used for “letter box drops in the electorate”, raising questions about whether the letters that went to constituents outside of Mr Wilson’s electorate were improperly paid for.

    Mr Wilson defended the cost of the mailout, saying it cost less than the impact of Labor’s policy of removing franking credits on an average individual.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-mp-tim-wilson-sends-6000-unsolicited-franking-credit-letters-raising-questions-over-use-of-expenses-20190322-p516om.html

  12. Briefly said
    “So they voted for SFF… for a party that will do absolutely nothing about climate change. Makes sense. The SFF is a throwback to the 19th century.”

    Depressing, isn’t it?

  13. Maude Lynne…. I guess they want someone else to fix things for them….and someone else to pay the price….the SFF have basically no real policies at all….they are a romantic rejection of modernity and reality….

  14. It’s fair to say the SFF are escapists – political escapists. Australian right wing/reactionary politics is very solidly escapist.

  15. Australia has a few issues but none that a dose of socialism couldn’t fix.
    The miners, the agricultural conglomerates and a few of the more obnoxious political personalities may yet be forced to swallow some castor oil.

  18. Where’s the Stan Grant candidacy announcement though? Are the Libs trying to flush him into declaring he’ll run by leaking it? I don’t reckon it’ll happen, but strange things do occur during the “end of days”.

    Re: “70% of the landmass votes for x”: who cares? It’s one vote one value, not one vote one hectare.

  19. Stan Grant has admitted that he is a conservative – his carefully scripted and contrived interview with Turnbull is testimony to this.

  22. Everyone is still over at the NSW thread. But FWIW, after what seems like an exhausting NSW election, I am still gathering Federal Newspoll guesses. On reflection this seems like the best place to do that, as people slowly drift back, maybe.

    PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-03-24

    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    PB mode: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 56

    NEW Guesses since last time
    ALP / LNP
    53 / 47 booleanbach
    54 / 46 poroti
    50 / 50 Sprocket_
    53 / 47 steve davis
    51 / 49 Zoidlord

  23. Well, it’s been an interesting 24 hours or so in politics around the world.

    1. Despite all the hoo-ha, including from many on this forum, it appears that Mueller hasn’t come up with much of anything. If so, I think this is terrific news for the Dems, as it will force them to get over the endless “we wuz robbed” whining about 2016, and get on with finding a high quality candidate and running a campaign on policy issues.

    2. A very impressive turnout in the “people’s referendum” march in London, led by Tom Watson, the man who in a sensible universe would currently be Labour leader. I like Watson, but I’m really not at all keen on the idea of a “people’s referendum.” Policy making by referendum is an incredibly bad idea IMO: the 2016 referendum should never have been held if the first place. But held it was, and it delivered a clear result. Another referendum could simply deliver the same result, and what then? My interpretation of the current situation is that, in their hearts a majority of parliamentarians don’t actually want Brexit at all. So they should grow cojones, get together and move a motion to abandon the stupid idea altogether. Such a vote would have a seismic effect on British politics, potentially splitting both major parties. But the existing political order has failed, so a major shake-up is essential.

    3. Another lot of hoo-ha about Labor’s prospects in NSW didn’t deliver much. Daley’s reported gaffe re migrants with PhDs brought to the surface a really important issue that has been bubbling away in NSW politics for some time, but isn’t reported on very much. And that’s the steady shift of a substantial part of the “ethnic” vote from Labor to the Libs. The growing segment of the Sydney population comprising non-Muslim East and South Asian migrants and their offspring is both socially conservative and “aspirational”. These attitudes make them naturally resistant to policies such as same sex marriage, removal of taxation subsidies for rental housing, increased welfare payments for working age people, etc. I think Labor, at both the State and Federal level, faces a growing problem in winning/holding suburban Sydney electorates that it once would have taken for granted. I don’t think it will stop them from winning the next Federal election, but it’s going to make things more difficult for them politically over the medium term: particularly if, as seems to be the case, the party continues to drift a little leftwards in its policy orientation.

    4. Finally, even though her political views are nothing like mine, I take my hat off to Jacinda Ardern. She is far and away the most impressive political leader on the planet (which, unfortunately, isn’t necessarily saying all that much at the moment). Indeed, while Australian politics has been an utter shambles for more than a decade, NZ has continued to produce a succession of highly capable leaders from both sides of the political fence, with Clark, Key and English each being very impressive in their own way. A possible explanation is that the young people of NZ tend to travel the world extensively before settling down to a career, and thereby get a much broader perspective on things than their counterparts in other nations.

  25. I think Stan Grant getting into the parliament as part of the Liberal Party would be good. I believe if he managed to become leader, he might be able to drag the party back from the reactionary madness it is descending into it.

  26. “I think Stan Grant getting into the parliament as part of the Liberal Party would be good. I believe if he managed to become leader, he might be able to drag the party back from the reactionary madness it is descending into it.”

    Fat chance. In WA, for instance, the candidate Jewelry Bishop wanted in Curtain only got one vote in pre-selection, and the female version of Tony Abbott won easily. The Liberal Party is stuffed, period.

  28. Sohar @ #577 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 10:47 am

    Late Riser,
    Is a Newspoll likely tonight?

    I don’t know. We’ve been caught before by not having a guess when a surprise Newspoll appeared. 🙂 But if it helps you can think of your guess as a response to, “If a Newspoll were to be published tonight, what do you think the TPP result would be?” 😉

  29. I am in a sulk over the NSW election I wanted a Labor win. SA and NSW, effen wake up. You let the crooks, shonks and effen arzoles win. Shame om you both.
    Look at Victoia. Sensible.

    Stupid Stupid stupid.

  30. Stan Grant turns down Liberal offer to run in key Sydney federal seat – report
    Journalist says it was an honour to be asked by Scott Morrison to run in Reid, but ‘that role is just not for me’

  31. I am in a sulk over the NSW election

    It is probably a win for those of us not in NSW, I think it makes a lessing of support for Shorten in the upcoming federal election less likely, and Shorten might even get a slight bump out of NSW buyers regret, as they realise Alan Jones still runs the state, and now Latham is in their Parliament representing them. NSW voters are the worst by a long way.

  32. I think NSWelshfolk voted SFF for the same reason QLD’ers vote ON. Simply country people have lost faith that the major parties have any feeling for the problems they face and no solutions to those problems. Not that anyone can do a lot about severe droughts while they persist, certainly not in the short term.

  33. Davidwh – I think you are right to some degree. There is a rejection of Nationals going on but a refusal to accept Labor in many rural areas. Hence the rise in rural Independents in Victoria, the SFF in NSW and ONP in Queensland.
    It is not likely that the Shooters part of SFF is the main appeal in NSW suddenly. And to some extent the Racialists elements of One Nation is not the major draw card for many voters in those outback Queensland seats that have be taken for granted by the Nationals. This is evident because Katter’s party has done reasonable well at state elections in Queensland when ON has not been a force.

  34. Rural folk do not vote Labor because traditionally the ALP and Unions lifted wages of poorly paid farm/station workers. So to the cockies et al the ALP is the bogey man who will take always away their income and give it to the ‘undeserving’ workers. Such workers are on the bottom of the ladder and their skills are specific to rural work. Usually poorly educated, with a large family to support, and needing the job to keep the accommodation that came with it, or being single men with no real opportunity to work anywhere else, they were ripe for exploitation.

    There is nothing more stingy than a Manager of a sheep/cattle station. They would not fix the broken flyscreen on a worker’s hut if a piece of hessian would do the job.

    A rise in the wage bill is a terrrible nightmare. Same for the cockies and food growers.

    So the angst over voting ALP is generational, ingrained and outside of their way of life. Even when climate change kills them, these people will shy away from the ALP.

    That is my opinion and probably why it is hard to get a good ALP government in NSW.

    Add to that the past ALP was government riven with corruption, along with the Lib/Nats, and you really have the Rum Corp state.

    I was hoping for better then time, but NSW lived down to my expectations once again. It is embarrassing that this time around SA is not much better.

  36. Late Riser,
    Ta. I’ll stick with 54-46 for the next Newspoll and the next Essential, regardless of what weeks they appear. May guess is next week for Newspoll and this Tuesday for Essential.

  42. Tristo @ #590 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 3:04 pm

    I am predicting some narrowing in the gap between the Coalition and Labor in the next polls to come out.

    The previous Newspoll was ALP 54 – 46 LNP
    The previous Essential was ALP 53 – 47 LNP

    I agree. The NSW state election threw up a dust storm and hid the federal game for a while.

    I’m going to guess
    Newspoll: ALP 53-47 LNP
    Essential: ALP 52-48 LNP

  46. Fess,

    wadaboutme?

    tell you what, Bill Maher is now the biggest, whiny baitch.

    I liked watching his show, for the first few minutes especially when he bags Trump, cos it’s funny, but fair dinkum, he’s such a righteous whiny baitch, it’s not funny any more.

    He bags the Dems non-stop. They’re not this, they’re not that, they’re too apologetic, they’re not tough enough. And people listen to him. Who are they going to vote for? The equivalent of the Greens? Nobody Independents who are going nowhere? To split the “left” vote.

    Take this latest episode. With Victoria’s favourite Swalwell, whatever, and Swalwell talking about new gun legislation.

    Here’s Bill Maher saying to him, “It feels like you’re coming after my guns. Not that I have many.” WTF? Swalwell wasn’t even fast enough on his feet with a comeback.

    So, in the end, it appears the Dems are going after the 2nd amendment. Just bullshit stuff.

    Plus, I really don’t like the way he belittles his audience. Nor the way he panders to the RWNJs. And that includes that dipstick Coulter.

  47. In the event there is a Newspoll tonight, here are the guesses. I will keep watch for further guesses or changed guesses.

    PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-03-24

    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    PB mode: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 53.9 to 46.1 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 58

    ALP / LNP
    54 / 46 (?)andy Murray
    53 / 47 a r *until the election
    54 / 46 Al Pal
    55 / 45 Alpha Zero
    54 / 46 BK
    53 / 47 booleanbach
    54 / 46 briefly
    53 / 47 Burgey
    53 / 47 chinda63
    53 / 47 Clem Attlee
    55 / 45 d-money
    75 / 25 Dan Gulberry
    52 / 48 Davidwh *doubtful
    55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
    52 / 48 Douglas and Milko
    54 / 46 EB *permanent
    54 / 46 Fozzie Logic *permanent
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    56 / 44 Gecko
    55 / 45 Granny Anny
    54 / 46 Goll
    54 / 46 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    53 / 47 imacca
    57 / 43 KayJay – all next polls
    53 / 47 Late Riser
    53 / 47 Lynchpin
    52 / 48 Marcos De Feilittt
    55 / 45 martini henry
    53 / 47 Matt31
    53 / 47 max
    52 / 48 MM
    54 / 46 Mr Ed
    53 / 47 Mundo
    54 / 46 pica
    52 / 48 Player One
    54 / 46 poroti
    52 / 48 Puffytmd
    53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
    54 / 46 Red13
    55 / 45 rhwombat *chastened
    no Newspoll Scott
    53 / 47 SilentMajority
    56 / 44 Simon² Katich® *eternal
    52 / 48 Smokey
    50 / 50 Sprocket_
    54 / 46 Socrates
    54 / 46 Sohar *Newspoll March 31
    53 / 47 sonar *permanent
    53 / 47 steve davis
    52 / 48 Steve777
    54 / 46 Terminator
    53 / 47 Tricot
    54 / 46 Upnorth
    53 / 47 Victoria
    54 / 46 Wayne
    54 / 46 Whisper
    54 / 46 Yabba
    51 / 49 Zoidlord

  48. @late riser, my Newspoll guess is 55-45 in favour of the good guys. But I think Newspoll will be next week which means, I hope, that somebody will leak a copy of the cabinet meeting minutes from 2011 on about Tuesday or Wednesday…

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