Reflecting its confidence about its prospects in Victoria, Labor has traded in its existing prospect for the seat of Higgins, Josh Spiegel, for a higher profile model in the shape of barrister Fiona McLeod. That’s all I really have to relate at the moment, but a new federal politics and general discussion thread is required, and here it is. Note the new Brexit post from Adrian Beaumont below this one and, naturally, the latest New South Wales election post above.
Federal election minus whatever
A new venue for general discussion of matters political, as the New South Wales election sucks the oxygen from the federal sphere.
I note the Liberals Sukkar and Andrews (along with 20 – paid? – “supporters” in their T Shirts) have been given extensive coverage on 9 promoting the so-called East-West Link – again
Last Friday one of our sons took an early mark – leaving work at 4 and travelling to Alexander Parade then along the Eastern Freeway to home
“Dad – it was a car park from Alexandra Parade to Springvale Road, never got above 40kph at any time and mostly below that including stopped Didn’t get home until 5.40. Serves me right for taking the car in – ironically because I was knocking off early and I thought it would get me home quicker”
So, by extension, how will the correctly aborted East-West Link address the car park outwards – apart from maybe adding more traffic to the Eastern
Then again they probably have Commonwealth drivers – waiting outside the MCG in case Carlton are getting a thrashing so leaving early
My advice to our son? – vote Labor, to which he gave a description of Sukkar I cannot repeat and said that was a given
Then we had the 9 puff piece on the Nationals Leader – apparently unknown to the electorate but married
Jeez I hope Bill doesn’t do a Daley between now and May…..
Some good news for a change..
https://www.news.com.au/travel/world-travel/north-america/we-tried-the-worlds-most-talked-about-burger/news-story/35290d136181c0cb5bad69aeafbddae9
So now you can enjoy the feel, smell and taste of minced up dead cow.
No sure where to post but it will be interesting to see if there will be SFF candidates in the Federal Election and where their preferences go. The same with One Nation preferences or will they do a split ticket. I am not sure about other areas I am in Adelaide but the United Australia Party have been spending Big thanks to Clive Palmer and think they will preference the LNP before the ALP but not sure ?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-march-london-put-it-to-the-people-live-updates-article-50-a8836386.html
Humungous demo for a 2nd referendum….1 million march
An online petition calling on the government to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit has become the most popular petition ever submitted to the Parliament website.
The petition, started in late February, reached over 4.16 million signatures on Saturday and has the highest rate of sign-ups on record, according to the official Petitions Committee.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-petition-article-50-revoke-record-website-deal-theresa-may-latest-a8836536.html
,
lizzie says:
Sunday, March 24, 2019 at 5:44 am
@TonyHWindsor
7h7 hours ago
70% of the landmass of NSW hasn’t voted for a major party ..why is this important …it represents much of the Great Artesian Basin and the Murray Darling River system in Australia and they are major victims of climate change …they are frightened for their future .#auspol
So they voted for SFF….for a party that will do absolutely nothing about climate change. Makes sense. The SFF is a throwback to the 19th century.
Good point, Lizzie.
And why are people in the west “frightened for their future”?
Because they know what is happening because of climate change, and that our freshly renewed Sydney-centric Gov’t is part of the problem.
It was instructive that the ABC commentary last night did not analyse why the Nats lost seats to the SFF. Too interested in the “Daley Gaff” to actually consider the real reasons for this historic change.
Climate change issues have become far bigger than our pollies are prepared to admit.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-mp-tim-wilson-sends-6000-unsolicited-franking-credit-letters-raising-questions-over-use-of-expenses-20190322-p516om.html
Briefly said
“So they voted for SFF… for a party that will do absolutely nothing about climate change. Makes sense. The SFF is a throwback to the 19th century.”
Depressing, isn’t it?
Maude Lynne…. I guess they want someone else to fix things for them….and someone else to pay the price….the SFF have basically no real policies at all….they are a romantic rejection of modernity and reality….
It’s fair to say the SFF are escapists – political escapists. Australian right wing/reactionary politics is very solidly escapist.
Australia has a few issues but none that a dose of socialism couldn’t fix.
The miners, the agricultural conglomerates and a few of the more obnoxious political personalities may yet be forced to swallow some castor oil.
Stan Grant in the Liberal Party? Talk about Stockholm syndrome
BK is on the NSW election blog.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/03/24/new-south-wales-election-morning/
Where’s the Stan Grant candidacy announcement though? Are the Libs trying to flush him into declaring he’ll run by leaking it? I don’t reckon it’ll happen, but strange things do occur during the “end of days”.
Re: “70% of the landmass votes for x”: who cares? It’s one vote one value, not one vote one hectare.
Stan Grant has admitted that he is a conservative – his carefully scripted and contrived interview with Turnbull is testimony to this.
Sinodinos says Barnaby is a marketing dynamo.
lizzie @ #567 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 5:52 am
Thanks lizzie.
Everyone is still over at the NSW thread. But FWIW, after what seems like an exhausting NSW election, I am still gathering Federal Newspoll guesses. On reflection this seems like the best place to do that, as people slowly drift back, maybe.
PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-03-24
PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
PB mode: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
PB mean: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 56
NEW Guesses since last time
ALP / LNP
53 / 47 booleanbach
54 / 46 poroti
50 / 50 Sprocket_
53 / 47 steve davis
51 / 49 Zoidlord
Well, it’s been an interesting 24 hours or so in politics around the world.
1. Despite all the hoo-ha, including from many on this forum, it appears that Mueller hasn’t come up with much of anything. If so, I think this is terrific news for the Dems, as it will force them to get over the endless “we wuz robbed” whining about 2016, and get on with finding a high quality candidate and running a campaign on policy issues.
2. A very impressive turnout in the “people’s referendum” march in London, led by Tom Watson, the man who in a sensible universe would currently be Labour leader. I like Watson, but I’m really not at all keen on the idea of a “people’s referendum.” Policy making by referendum is an incredibly bad idea IMO: the 2016 referendum should never have been held if the first place. But held it was, and it delivered a clear result. Another referendum could simply deliver the same result, and what then? My interpretation of the current situation is that, in their hearts a majority of parliamentarians don’t actually want Brexit at all. So they should grow cojones, get together and move a motion to abandon the stupid idea altogether. Such a vote would have a seismic effect on British politics, potentially splitting both major parties. But the existing political order has failed, so a major shake-up is essential.
3. Another lot of hoo-ha about Labor’s prospects in NSW didn’t deliver much. Daley’s reported gaffe re migrants with PhDs brought to the surface a really important issue that has been bubbling away in NSW politics for some time, but isn’t reported on very much. And that’s the steady shift of a substantial part of the “ethnic” vote from Labor to the Libs. The growing segment of the Sydney population comprising non-Muslim East and South Asian migrants and their offspring is both socially conservative and “aspirational”. These attitudes make them naturally resistant to policies such as same sex marriage, removal of taxation subsidies for rental housing, increased welfare payments for working age people, etc. I think Labor, at both the State and Federal level, faces a growing problem in winning/holding suburban Sydney electorates that it once would have taken for granted. I don’t think it will stop them from winning the next Federal election, but it’s going to make things more difficult for them politically over the medium term: particularly if, as seems to be the case, the party continues to drift a little leftwards in its policy orientation.
4. Finally, even though her political views are nothing like mine, I take my hat off to Jacinda Ardern. She is far and away the most impressive political leader on the planet (which, unfortunately, isn’t necessarily saying all that much at the moment). Indeed, while Australian politics has been an utter shambles for more than a decade, NZ has continued to produce a succession of highly capable leaders from both sides of the political fence, with Clark, Key and English each being very impressive in their own way. A possible explanation is that the young people of NZ tend to travel the world extensively before settling down to a career, and thereby get a much broader perspective on things than their counterparts in other nations.
Good morning,
This article is well worth a read
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/mar/23/jacinda-envy-why-the-days-of-a-middle-aged-white-male-leader-could-be-over
I think Stan Grant getting into the parliament as part of the Liberal Party would be good. I believe if he managed to become leader, he might be able to drag the party back from the reactionary madness it is descending into it.
“I think Stan Grant getting into the parliament as part of the Liberal Party would be good. I believe if he managed to become leader, he might be able to drag the party back from the reactionary madness it is descending into it.”
Fat chance. In WA, for instance, the candidate Jewelry Bishop wanted in Curtain only got one vote in pre-selection, and the female version of Tony Abbott won easily. The Liberal Party is stuffed, period.
Late Riser,
Is a Newspoll likely tonight?
Sohar @ #577 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 10:47 am
I don’t know. We’ve been caught before by not having a guess when a surprise Newspoll appeared. 🙂 But if it helps you can think of your guess as a response to, “If a Newspoll were to be published tonight, what do you think the TPP result would be?” 😉
I am in a sulk over the NSW election I wanted a Labor win. SA and NSW, effen wake up. You let the crooks, shonks and effen arzoles win. Shame om you both.
Look at Victoia. Sensible.
Stupid Stupid stupid.
Stan Grant turns down Liberal offer to run in key Sydney federal seat – report
Journalist says it was an honour to be asked by Scott Morrison to run in Reid, but ‘that role is just not for me’
It is probably a win for those of us not in NSW, I think it makes a lessing of support for Shorten in the upcoming federal election less likely, and Shorten might even get a slight bump out of NSW buyers regret, as they realise Alan Jones still runs the state, and now Latham is in their Parliament representing them. NSW voters are the worst by a long way.
I think NSWelshfolk voted SFF for the same reason QLD’ers vote ON. Simply country people have lost faith that the major parties have any feeling for the problems they face and no solutions to those problems. Not that anyone can do a lot about severe droughts while they persist, certainly not in the short term.
Davidwh – I think you are right to some degree. There is a rejection of Nationals going on but a refusal to accept Labor in many rural areas. Hence the rise in rural Independents in Victoria, the SFF in NSW and ONP in Queensland.
It is not likely that the Shooters part of SFF is the main appeal in NSW suddenly. And to some extent the Racialists elements of One Nation is not the major draw card for many voters in those outback Queensland seats that have be taken for granted by the Nationals. This is evident because Katter’s party has done reasonable well at state elections in Queensland when ON has not been a force.
Rural folk do not vote Labor because traditionally the ALP and Unions lifted wages of poorly paid farm/station workers. So to the cockies et al the ALP is the bogey man who will take always away their income and give it to the ‘undeserving’ workers. Such workers are on the bottom of the ladder and their skills are specific to rural work. Usually poorly educated, with a large family to support, and needing the job to keep the accommodation that came with it, or being single men with no real opportunity to work anywhere else, they were ripe for exploitation.
There is nothing more stingy than a Manager of a sheep/cattle station. They would not fix the broken flyscreen on a worker’s hut if a piece of hessian would do the job.
A rise in the wage bill is a terrrible nightmare. Same for the cockies and food growers.
So the angst over voting ALP is generational, ingrained and outside of their way of life. Even when climate change kills them, these people will shy away from the ALP.
That is my opinion and probably why it is hard to get a good ALP government in NSW.
Add to that the past ALP was government riven with corruption, along with the Lib/Nats, and you really have the Rum Corp state.
I was hoping for better then time, but NSW lived down to my expectations once again. It is embarrassing that this time around SA is not much better.
I hope that fool’s nine kids remember him when some of them get shingles in their older years.
Late Riser,
Ta. I’ll stick with 54-46 for the next Newspoll and the next Essential, regardless of what weeks they appear. May guess is next week for Newspoll and this Tuesday for Essential.
Sohar @ #586 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 1:50 pm
Sounds good. 🙂
52-48 newspoll
53-47 Essential
PuffyTMD @ #588 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 2:26 pm
OK, but just confirming since you did have Newspoll at 54-46.
I am predicting some narrowing in the gap between the Coalition and Labor in the next polls to come out.
Late Riser,
post nsw pessimism.
Tristo @ #590 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 3:04 pm
The previous Newspoll was ALP 54 – 46 LNP
The previous Essential was ALP 53 – 47 LNP
I agree. The NSW state election threw up a dust storm and hid the federal game for a while.
I’m going to guess
Newspoll: ALP 53-47 LNP
Essential: ALP 52-48 LNP
PBers whom I haven’t seen comment in a while:
don
Aunt Mavis
Guytaur
Confessions @ #593 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 3:26 pm
don had a dispute with WB and left.
Aunt Mavis, I think, changed their name.
guytaur, I haven’t seen a post recently.
Late Riser:
Thanks.
Fess,
wadaboutme?
tell you what, Bill Maher is now the biggest, whiny baitch.
I liked watching his show, for the first few minutes especially when he bags Trump, cos it’s funny, but fair dinkum, he’s such a righteous whiny baitch, it’s not funny any more.
He bags the Dems non-stop. They’re not this, they’re not that, they’re too apologetic, they’re not tough enough. And people listen to him. Who are they going to vote for? The equivalent of the Greens? Nobody Independents who are going nowhere? To split the “left” vote.
Take this latest episode. With Victoria’s favourite Swalwell, whatever, and Swalwell talking about new gun legislation.
Here’s Bill Maher saying to him, “It feels like you’re coming after my guns. Not that I have many.” WTF? Swalwell wasn’t even fast enough on his feet with a comeback.
So, in the end, it appears the Dems are going after the 2nd amendment. Just bullshit stuff.
Plus, I really don’t like the way he belittles his audience. Nor the way he panders to the RWNJs. And that includes that dipstick Coulter.
In the event there is a Newspoll tonight, here are the guesses. I will keep watch for further guesses or changed guesses.
PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-03-24
PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
PB mode: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
PB mean: ALP 53.9 to 46.1 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 58
ALP / LNP
54 / 46 (?)andy Murray
53 / 47 a r *until the election
54 / 46 Al Pal
55 / 45 Alpha Zero
54 / 46 BK
53 / 47 booleanbach
54 / 46 briefly
53 / 47 Burgey
53 / 47 chinda63
53 / 47 Clem Attlee
55 / 45 d-money
75 / 25 Dan Gulberry
52 / 48 Davidwh *doubtful
55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
52 / 48 Douglas and Milko
54 / 46 EB *permanent
54 / 46 Fozzie Logic *permanent
53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
56 / 44 Gecko
55 / 45 Granny Anny
54 / 46 Goll
54 / 46 Harry “Snapper” Organs
53 / 47 imacca
57 / 43 KayJay – all next polls
53 / 47 Late Riser
53 / 47 Lynchpin
52 / 48 Marcos De Feilittt
55 / 45 martini henry
53 / 47 Matt31
53 / 47 max
52 / 48 MM
54 / 46 Mr Ed
53 / 47 Mundo
54 / 46 pica
52 / 48 Player One
54 / 46 poroti
52 / 48 Puffytmd
53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
54 / 46 Red13
55 / 45 rhwombat *chastened
no Newspoll Scott
53 / 47 SilentMajority
56 / 44 Simon² Katich® *eternal
52 / 48 Smokey
50 / 50 Sprocket_
54 / 46 Socrates
54 / 46 Sohar *Newspoll March 31
53 / 47 sonar *permanent
53 / 47 steve davis
52 / 48 Steve777
54 / 46 Terminator
53 / 47 Tricot
54 / 46 Upnorth
53 / 47 Victoria
54 / 46 Wayne
54 / 46 Whisper
54 / 46 Yabba
51 / 49 Zoidlord
@late riser, my Newspoll guess is 55-45 in favour of the good guys. But I think Newspoll will be next week which means, I hope, that somebody will leak a copy of the cabinet meeting minutes from 2011 on about Tuesday or Wednesday…
Late Riser @ #597 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 5:50 pm
Dennis Atkins tells us there is no federal Newspoll this weekend.
https://twitter.com/dwabriz/status/1109741627977826304