The final week of the New South Wales campaign has been marked by a turn in the media narrative, with a barrage of negative headlines for Michael Daley dispelling an earlier consensus that “momentum” rested with Labor. This morning’s reports mostly relate to stumbles over education policy during the Sky News leaders forum in Penrith last night, which ended with 50 of the assembled “undecided voters” (one of whom turns out to have been an Australian Conservatives election candidate) rating themselves more likely to vote Coalition, compared with 25 for Labor and 25 uncommitted.
However, the main headline spinner over the past few days has been the emergence of video of Daley addressing a forum in the Blue Mountains last September, in which he expressed concern about the impact of Asian immigration on the employment and housing markets. To identify where this is most likely to cause Labor trouble, the table below shows the top ten electorates for Chinese ancestry, as identified in the 2016 census. The only seat here that might be described as a Labor target is Oatley, although it has not much featured in discussion of seats that are likely to fall its way. However, Labor appears to have been thrown on the defensive in Kogarah, held by widely touted leadership prospect Chris Minns, and Strathfield, which Jodi McKay narrowly succeeded in gaining for Labor in 2015.
| Chinese ancestry | Margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Kogarah | 32.8% | Labor 6.9% |
| Ryde | 28.2% | Liberal 11.5% |
| Epping | 26.4% | Liberal 16.2% |
| Strathfield | 25.8% | Labor 1.8% |
| Heffron | 22.6% | Labor 14.1% |
| Auburn | 20.6% | Labor 5.9% |
| Willoughby | 20.2% | Liberal 23.8% |
| Parramatta | 19.3% | Liberal 12.9% |
| Oatley | 19.2% | Liberal 6.6% |
| Baulkham Hills | 18.3% | Liberal 21.8% |
Minns took to Chinese social media forum WeChat on Tuesday to distance himself from Daley’s comments, as the Liberals turned the screws by spruiking internal polling with his primary vote at 32.4%, dangerously down on the 45.4% he recorded in 2015. Multiple reports have said the poll showed a 7% swing away from Labor, although there is some confusion as to whether this is from the base of the 2015 election result, in which case the seat would go down to the wire, or if it reflects the immediate effect of the story breaking. The polling is said to have been conducted on Tuesday evening from a sample of 400, with a margin of error of 5%. The Liberals have followed this today by telling the Daily Telegraph that further polling shows it with a primary vote lead of 42.6% to 34.3% in Strathfield.
Not all the party polling chatter over the past 24 hours has been bad for Labor: a Liberal source acknowledged to the Daily Telegraph yesterday that the party still did not expect to win Kogarah; Nine News reported last night that the furore had had no impact in “marginal seats Mr Daley needs to win”; and Seven News reported the Coalition had “grown more worried about the seat of Goulburn following a steady decline in polling numbers”. Andrew Clennell of The Australian today offers that the Liberals could be looking at four losses on top of five for the Nationals, sufficient to cost the government its majority. However, the ship is said to have been steadied in Heathcote, which the Liberals have targeted with intensive campaigning after being spooked by the results of polling conducted last week.
Before the turn in the media mood had fully unfolded, I took part in a podcast with Ben Raue of The Tally Room on Monday, together with social researcher Rebecca Huntley, which you can hear below.
The only chance the libs/nats have got of any kind of government is a combine primary vote of above 40 % , 40% or less there will be change of government
@ Andrew_Earlwood
Do you think you will be speaking to your sources today or tomorrow? Would be quiet interesting to find out how the sentiment is tracking in the real world without the media spin.
“Do you think you will be speaking to your sources today or tomorrow? Would be quiet interesting to find out how the sentiment is tracking in the real world without the media spin.”
I’ve been extremely tempted, but they are undoubtably flat out in the last 48 hours, so I’ve decided not to, and will have to satisfy my curiosity at the Don’s party that I’m going to with certain alumni of the Carr-Iemma-shitstorm government on Saturday night and over a few quiet beers with my mates next week who I hope will be about to sworn in as cabinet ministers.
I will however be embedded in the War Room at HO on Saturday morning, so I might get a head’s up then, but speaking once again from personal experience, folk are pretty tight lipped (or just plan exhausted) by then.
I didn’t think I am just optimistic…..the existing boundaries are labor friendly eg Barwon and Holsworthy .The Nationals are in real danger almost everywhere….Bega and Goulburn are real labor chances. And I repeat this government has been very accident prone.My deceased Cocker Spaniel has greater campaigning skills than Gladys. Who would go to Orange promise a$25m stadium but only if they return a national party mp
Sportsbet odds have widened in favour of coalition 1.50 to 2.50 for labour.
Rex Douglas:
Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 2:22 pm
————————————-
Rex, could you do me a favour? Could you please let us know which of the following propositions you agree with? (You may agree with more than one.)
1) The last debate gives us a good reason to preference the Coalition over Labor, whomever we give our first preference;
2) The last debate gives us a good reason to preference Labor over the Coalition, whomever we give our first preference;
3) The last debate gives us no good reason to prefer one of the major parties over the other.
Just curious. I will appreciate your answer, whatever it is.
I voted early today – and my ONLY consideration was the delivery of the Sydney Metro Stage 2 – Sydenham to Bankstown.
I may be totally wrong but I think if the LNP win, it will become the “one too many successive election election wins” that befell Labor in 2011. Some thoughts:
It will almost certainly be a minority government and the minority partners will be looking for their pound of flesh. The Liberals seem to do worse than Labor when governing in a minority.
With the Nationals federally facing serious internal issues, their state counterparts will be caught up in the instability to some extent and that is not good for the stability of a NSW Liberal/National/Whomever government.
They will face a somewhat fractured upper house and good luck negotiating with ON and the LDP.
There is a near 100% chance of a Federal Labor government in the near future and the direction of Federal funds will be somewhat different to what it is at present. Almost certainly what Berejiklian wants will not be what Shorten wants.
Massive disruption from infrastructure projects will continue and the people who are currently unhappy will remain unhappy with the government. When private motorists and truckies start paying all the extra road tolls they will be unhappy.
The existing rail system will continue to offer sub-optimal performance, struggling under the weight of increased patronage and declining infrastructure investment. Meanwhile, passengers travelling long distances on the new metro will be asking “where are the seats?”
We’ll see how Gladys manages to cope.
News limited very desperate?
I may be totally wrong but I think if the LNP win, it will become the “one too many successive election election wins” that befell Labor in 2007. Some thoughts:
It will almost certainly be a minority government and the minority partners will be looking for their pound of flesh. The Liberals seem to do worse than Labor when governing in a minority.
With the Nationals federally facing serious internal issues, their state counterparts will be caught up in the instability to some extent and that is not good for the stability of a NSW Liberal/National/Whomever government.
They will face a somewhat fractured upper house and good luck negotiating with ON and the LDP.
There is a near 100% chance of a Federal Labor government in the near future and the direction of Federal funds will be somewhat different to what it is at present. Almost certainly what Berejiklian wants will not be what Shorten wants.
Massive disruption from infrastructure projects will continue and the people who are currently unhappy will remain unhappy with the government. When private motorists and truckies start paying all the extra road tolls they will be unhappy.
The existing rail system will continue to offer sub-optimal performance, struggling under the weight of increased patronage and declining infrastructure investment. Meanwhile, passengers travelling long distances on the new metro will be asking “where are the seats?”
We’ll see how Gladys manages to cope.
Re my previous post(s): Posted twice with one correction (2007 instead of 2011). I tried to edit the first post but was denied permission. The post was still showing in the comments box so I reposted it with the correct date. Thus two posts – apologies.
I get feeling that Daley has blown it in the last few days. Labor will still pick up a few seats but not the 10 they thought they could get. Maybe just enough to get the Coalition into minority status.
I will get off the fence , predicting the libs/nats combined primary vote will be under 40%
I think history is going to repeat anna palaszczuk ,Daniel Andrews made blunders days before the election
The media had opinion polls out on Election day 52-48 to the libs/nats
and Labor won both of those election , like in QLD first term , Labor will get close a majority (short by2 seats) but end up in a in a minority
Maybe Waleed will just tell Morrison to Ardern up!
A bit more balanced than the Ch7 congaline of RWNJ
Make the ABC your destination for #NSWVotes2019 results on Saturday night. Our political panel: @Dom_Perrottet @mckay_jodi Trent Zimmerman & @LindaBurneyMP. We’re on air from 6pm on @ABCTV across NSW and nationwide on the @abcnews channel. abc.net.au/nswvotes
“Make the ABC your destination for #NSWVotes2019 results on Saturday night. Our political panel: @Dom_Perrottet @mckay_jodi Trent Zimmerman & @LindaBurneyMP. We’re on air from 6pm on @ABCTV across NSW and nationwide on the @abcnews channel. abc.net.au/nswvotes”
Yeah. Nah. Who’s on Skynoos?
An article from one of our local newspapers, explaining exactly why I am desperate that Berejiklian and Co do not win on Sat night:
We are just watching the whole apparatus of state government in NSW being privatised, purely by legislation. Our community services are now all put out to tender, and the most successful, local, ones are often losing the tender, to be replaced by big players int he market, with no knowledge of local concerns, who will be beholden to the NSW state government, or they lose their jobs.
My reckoning:
Labor will win Coogee and Penrith. East Hills is an outside shot.
They will also pickup Lismore and Tweed.
From there, it’s a crapshoot. They need two more to get to a viable minority government.
They also need to *not* lose: The Entrance, Strathfield, Kogarah (last is unlikely, Strathfield less so)
JJ: my reckoning (with fingers well and truly crossed after a week of white noise):
1. Labor will not lose a seat.
2. Sydney: Labor will pick up East Hills, Coogee and Penrith
3. North coast: the Nats will be swept from Lismore, Tweed and Ballina (currently held by the Greens), but I’m not prepared to call them as labor or Greens seats
4. Out west: Barwon and Dubbo will both fall and Orange will stay in the hands of the SFF. Bathurst will come home to Labor
5. Down south west. McGirr will retain Wagga, Murray will fall
6. Down south east: Bega, Monaro and Goulburn will fall to Labor.
On top of that there are another dozen seats ripe for a boil over across the state.
The one thing that any ABC panellist should remember is that we are not there to listen to them, we’re there to watch Antony Green.
Regrettably there are a few who do not realise that.
I agree with Simon. I’m there for Mr Green. The people from the parties only become interesting when one side starts losing and they finally start talking like real people (and dumping shit on their colleagues)
I was going through Sportsbet odds
The odds widened in favour of LNP (1.50-2.50) but when I looked at each seat odds, one of seats, Barwon, actually flipped in favour of SFF, Kogarah tightened considerably but still in Favour of ALP, Strathfield tightened a bit but ALP way in front, Ballina a toss up. Others did not change. So I do not understand why betting widened in favour of LNP. Something does not add up. The difference in number of seats is actually 1 and it is minority government based on the count of number of seats for each party.
Wow Andrew. Good to see you’re not wearing your heart on your sleeve. Kiama!! Next it’ll be Kuringai and Davidson!!
1.45/2.60 now
Douglas and Milko says:
Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 6:49 pm
An article from one of our local newspapers, explaining exactly why I am desperate that Berejiklian and Co do not win on Sat night:
Selling NSW – Berejiklian style
by Wendy Bacon (one of our local Greens, and probably also well know as an activist)
Late last year, the Berejiklian government quietly decided to contract out the licensing of buskers on Sydney’s foreshore to the world’s biggest real estate services company, CBRE……
Speed of privatisation alarming
——————-
Did I read here that the state Coalition government sold the Sir Stamford Hotel on what must be the most expensive square meter real estate in the country, on Macquarie Street, a stone’s throw from the Opera House for $16.8 million!!. You can’t buy a decent house in the eastern suburbs for that money these days.
And then to turn around and blow $750 million on rebuilding a 30 year old stadium. How do they get away with it. They make Eddie Obeid’s Terrigal gang look like choir boys. On Saturday we can only fervently pray that they have their asses given to them on a silver platter.
I was told on Tuesday that, of the liberal seats on the radar, they were only behind in Coogee and level pegging in East Hills.
Nats behind in at least three.
I must be reading another post of Andrew’s. No mention of Kiama…no
need to get all hot under the collar unlike the locals getting robo called!
Kiama and South Coast are both on the list of seats ripe for a boil over. As are Seven Hills, Holsworthy and Heathcote. Alas not Kurringai or Davidson. So moderate’s home range is safe for now.
now look at seats that can be won by non labour from the forces of darkness…….. Coffs Harbour Dubbo Tamworth North shore Wollondilly all independent chances
nath
I remember Keating, who obviously wasn’t a long time follower of Australian Football, getting on board your side at the start of 1990. As a St.Kilda supporter I liked the way he didn’t pretend he was a great expert, but nevertheless chose a side that had traditionally been fairly heavily associated with the broader labour movement.
And he chose an excellent year to get on board.
I can’t remember if this was his first actual game
14 July
On this day in 1990, the Mighty Magpies were up against Carlton in a round 15 match at VFL Park in front of 76,390. At the risk of ruffling the taxpayer, number one ticket holder and Prime Minister, Paul Keating, flew down from Canberra on a RAAF jet to watch the game. A win today would mark Collingwood’s eighth in succession, and ensure it maintained a two game break inside the top-two.
By the conclusion of the game, Carlton coach Alex Jesaulenko conceded Collingwood was the best side he had seen for the year. The half-time score-line looked fabulous – 9.6 to 1.6. The three-quarter time score line looked even better – 14.8 to 3.8. If not for a five-goal last quarter by Carlton, the Woods would have pushed the record 102-point barrier established in 1977 at the same ground.
Collingwood won 17.11.113 to 8.11.59 and were second on the ladder, breathing down Essendon’s neck.
beguiledagain
You sure did – and with no tender process. See the SMH article from 2 days ago, titled “Public servants raised probity concerns over hotel sale to Liberal donor”
https://www.smh.com.au/nsw-election-2019/public-servants-raised-probity-concerns-over-hotel-sale-to-liberal-donor-20190319-p515ix.html
Long, long queues at Richmond prepoll today. This is Lib heartland but the Libs were were pretty subdued and generally talking among themselves. About one in five ppl took their HTV while I waited. Lots of independents, shooters, a Green, even a One Nation and the largest ALP turnout I’ve seen at a Hawkesbury state pre-poll in my lifetime (since first Wran election)! The ALP is running a local councillor who only recently joined the party and is quite liked. They’ve got their tails up after winning Macquarie. Biggest issue is trains and roads, and you can guess how that’s playing out for Gladys.
Libs will probably win, but wouldn’t be surprised if it went to preferences. Shooters (who have campaigned strongly and have a core constituency here) and the lead independent both preferencing ALP.
Ayres is in trouble in Penrith on primaries. Local favourite son Tyndall is chewing up the sporty vote that was as chunk of Ayres’ base. If Tyndall, who is old Penrith, gets 6-8% it will be the end of Ayres. If the ALP primary holds up they’ll win it, but if primaries are scattered then, god knows. Count will go on for a week.
The interesting one is Riverstone! I talk to a lot of people in my job and many Indians in Stanhope Gardens on Wednesday were applauding Daley’s comments on Chinese migrants! In Penrith, I everyone I asked said something along the lines of “so what, everybody knows that”.
I asked Great Aunt Hortense* tonight how her beloved Liberal Party was doing in Bowral (Wollondilly) and after much sighing and moaning about the Traitorous Turnbull she said she was voting for the Communist Mayor Hannan (sp?). The rust well and truly coming off there.
There’s, like, two elections going on here. The one in the media and the one that I’m getting people, reluctantly, to talk about. There is no love for the ALP, but people really have had a gutful of the state of the outer Sydney metro area and its rural fringes. It’s broken.
As a f’rinstance. The distance from North Richmond to Richmond is four kilometres. There is one bus every hour that finishes at 7pm. There is a two lane (one lane each way) bridge over the Hawkesbury. On a Friday between 3pm and 6pm that journey can take up to half an hour. How do you think the good burghers of North Richmond and environs are going to vote on Saturday? These are booths that were mid-high 60s for the Libs in 2015 on the back of promising there’d be no holes in donuts if Baird won.
The North West Metro is a real estate developers boondoggle that goes from nowhere to nowhere and has had some seriously shoddy construction history. Fiasco would be too kind. I think a lot of people thought Mike Baird was going to fix Sydney, but they’ve given up on that idea and now the mood is like it was Federally in 1996 and people just want revenge for having the piss taken out of them.
I doubt this election will go anything like the psephology spun on this most excellent forum, but nor will it neatly fit into a media narrative either. Remember, no one saw McGirr coming in Wagga because no one reported or knew the local anger about the privatisation of the hospital car parking. That act of bastadry cost the Libs a safe seat. Now, for your homework, go and find a car park at Nepean Hospital during a weekday, and then come and tell me how Ayres is going to go on Saturday!
There will be a few surprises on Saturday, and Sunday…
* name changed to protect the guilty.
and as at tonight, Daley’s trainwreck 48 hours has put (from an ALP source that I trust) both Kogarah and Strathfield at 50/50. Where were they on your list guys??
My source tells me that the Liberals are privately conceding 9-10 seats lost. However a worried Morrison and his Office are not confident at all.
[from an ALP source that I trust]
I always assumed moderate and Andrew Earlwood were mates.
I feel like at this point its the end of the draw in poker and everyone needs to show their cards (read sources)
they are on my list as labor retain
“I always assumed moderate and Andrew Earlwood were mates.”
Yep. Conversation at Checkpoint Charlie went something like this:
A_E: “Maate. Kogarah and Strathfield are red hot. Lucky you are not putting any resources in there I can tell you”.
Moderate: “Yeah. As if” [laughs nervously. Looks at watch]. “ Geez. Is that the time. I’ve got Vespers at 7.30. I’ve got to go.”
A_E: “ Sure. No problems. blessed day”
Moderate: “Under His eye” [walks away. Talks surreptitiously into watch when clear] “pull all resources out of Penrith and East Hills now. Target Strathefield and Kogorah. …. No! Just do it. I take full responsibility!
A_E: [still standing on the bridge, talks into hidden lapel device] “It is done” [cue theme music]
Got my Booth Kit tonight and I am ready to rumble on Saturday! C’arn the good guys!
I live in Melbourne and note that Scott Morrison has been in Melbourne all week. I saw his interview with Waleed Ali, which I thought was awful.
Do you thik that interview will have any effect on the election result on Saturday?
Catmomma – go grrrl!
Why does this feel like the last two Queensland and last two Victorian election and Super Saturday and Wagga Wagga and Orange? I have a feeling that something isn’t quite right with the media coverage.
I’m still expecting a hung parliament, with Labor to form government alongside the greens. Although at this point I wouldn’t mind if the greens demand an actual leader of sorts from Labor to be premiering exchange for their support, not whatever Michael Daley is…
Thanks McMad. Very interesting – and heartening!
TBH I don’t think anything that’s happened in the media cycle over the past week has made much of a difference in outer Sydney. The big queues at prepoll (Ppl turned up at prepoll at Richmond bc crowds at Penrith and Windsor pre poll) show people made their minds up a while ago. The prevailing mood is anger at incumbency because Governments are all beholden to the big end of town. I think the non-major primary will end up just shy of thirty percent.
I think the elctorate will be increasingly volatile until we get Treasuries that work for people or representative democracy recedes as a thing, whichever comes first. As it stands, you do the bidding of govt, not the other way around. People are tired of waking up to yet another impost from government, or ones from the private sector given a green light from govt.
The paucity of talent in corporate and public life leaves me weary. I applaud those private citizens with values and ethics who put themselves forward as independents. The barriers to their voice gaining traction are immense, yet they are the best hope of getting past the lobbyists that have a stranglehold on our cabinets, and who seldom work in the public interest.
The fact those midgets cast such a long shadow shows how late in the day we are.
Thanks, billie. Pretty much 7am to 7pm on Saturday. However, I will have my phone on me to provide a running commentary during the day from my neck of the woods. 🙂
To point to the changing nature of election time, I was handing out HTVs and approached a young lady who politely declined and said she had all the information she needed to vote on her phone.
With OPV, a big vote for non majors will be bad news for both LNP and ALP, because of exhaust. It will hurt the LNP more bc of where the viable and credible independent/minor campaigns are located. Apart from incumbents in Sydney, Wagga and Lake Macquarie, plus the SFF in in Orange, Barwon (SFF), Wollondilly and North Shore are seriously in contention. Maybe Coffs and Tamworth if there’s a mood on.
There is a third tier of seats, such as Penrith, Lismore, Terrigal, Vaucluse, Myall Lakes, Clarence, Parramatta, Murray, Granville, Hawkesbury, Seven Hills, where independents are unlikely to win, but where largish centre-right independent votes that exhaust or leak preferences leave LNP candidates stranded, or at least pushed to preferences. This could even happen with small votes in tight races, Seven Hills, where the ex-Liberal redneck Sexton is running f’rinstance.
This is very general, the candidacy of Mick Gallagher in Hornsby, or Andrew Thaler in Monaro, for example, are likely to help the incumbent, by leaking support from their challenger (such as a challenge exists in Hornsby!)
Generally though, think this will be behind more than one surprise on election night and beyond.
A-E@9:55pm
You and MOderate are friends like PM Morrison and Jason Claire. Very clandestine. 🙂
Cracking front page lead from The Oz tomorrow, headlined “Greens hand ALP $1.5bn ransom note”. Relevantly:
“I wouldn’t mind if the greens demand ”
I’ll stop you right there Conor. If the Greens demand anything, other than perhaps a glass of water, they’ll get nothing off Labor. Ask nicely, and you may receive … something …