The final week of the New South Wales campaign has been marked by a turn in the media narrative, with a barrage of negative headlines for Michael Daley dispelling an earlier consensus that “momentum” rested with Labor. This morning’s reports mostly relate to stumbles over education policy during the Sky News leaders forum in Penrith last night, which ended with 50 of the assembled “undecided voters” (one of whom turns out to have been an Australian Conservatives election candidate) rating themselves more likely to vote Coalition, compared with 25 for Labor and 25 uncommitted.
However, the main headline spinner over the past few days has been the emergence of video of Daley addressing a forum in the Blue Mountains last September, in which he expressed concern about the impact of Asian immigration on the employment and housing markets. To identify where this is most likely to cause Labor trouble, the table below shows the top ten electorates for Chinese ancestry, as identified in the 2016 census. The only seat here that might be described as a Labor target is Oatley, although it has not much featured in discussion of seats that are likely to fall its way. However, Labor appears to have been thrown on the defensive in Kogarah, held by widely touted leadership prospect Chris Minns, and Strathfield, which Jodi McKay narrowly succeeded in gaining for Labor in 2015.
| Chinese ancestry | Margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Kogarah | 32.8% | Labor 6.9% |
| Ryde | 28.2% | Liberal 11.5% |
| Epping | 26.4% | Liberal 16.2% |
| Strathfield | 25.8% | Labor 1.8% |
| Heffron | 22.6% | Labor 14.1% |
| Auburn | 20.6% | Labor 5.9% |
| Willoughby | 20.2% | Liberal 23.8% |
| Parramatta | 19.3% | Liberal 12.9% |
| Oatley | 19.2% | Liberal 6.6% |
| Baulkham Hills | 18.3% | Liberal 21.8% |
Minns took to Chinese social media forum WeChat on Tuesday to distance himself from Daley’s comments, as the Liberals turned the screws by spruiking internal polling with his primary vote at 32.4%, dangerously down on the 45.4% he recorded in 2015. Multiple reports have said the poll showed a 7% swing away from Labor, although there is some confusion as to whether this is from the base of the 2015 election result, in which case the seat would go down to the wire, or if it reflects the immediate effect of the story breaking. The polling is said to have been conducted on Tuesday evening from a sample of 400, with a margin of error of 5%. The Liberals have followed this today by telling the Daily Telegraph that further polling shows it with a primary vote lead of 42.6% to 34.3% in Strathfield.
Not all the party polling chatter over the past 24 hours has been bad for Labor: a Liberal source acknowledged to the Daily Telegraph yesterday that the party still did not expect to win Kogarah; Nine News reported last night that the furore had had no impact in “marginal seats Mr Daley needs to win”; and Seven News reported the Coalition had “grown more worried about the seat of Goulburn following a steady decline in polling numbers”. Andrew Clennell of The Australian today offers that the Liberals could be looking at four losses on top of five for the Nationals, sufficient to cost the government its majority. However, the ship is said to have been steadied in Heathcote, which the Liberals have targeted with intensive campaigning after being spooked by the results of polling conducted last week.
Before the turn in the media mood had fully unfolded, I took part in a podcast with Ben Raue of The Tally Room on Monday, together with social researcher Rebecca Huntley, which you can hear below.
No one will change their vote on the debate alone. I mean the only people who even knew about it are political junkies anyway, not waverers.
It does though seep into the media narrative, which is where a lot of people take their cues.
Massive shift on Sportsbet overall winner market, however this not necessarily reflected in seat betting or the number of seats won by each party (in fact the latter has the ALP and LNP winning 44-46 seats each as the favourite)….which all means that the betting market is not clear at all…plenty of value propositions..
If anyone wants the best bet prediction ATM – East Hills at 3.20 looks like great odds for the Coalition.
The Chinese Stats presented leaves out the approx 15% of the Strathfield LGA with Korean or Nepalese Ancestry
The ‘pools’ for lots of election betting markets are very small, especially for individual seats. And in the past it has been very strongly suspected that close supporters of candidates have put money in to ‘move the dial’ on the odds.
Compared to any single (even ‘dead-rubber’) One Day Cricket International anywhere in the world, where the betting pool just on the subcontinent is generally estimated to be more than $US 100 million.
I would also have thought Strathfield (margin 1.8%) would be a better bet than $6.00. There must have been a reason that the ALP rolled both KK and Bob Carr (remember him, the “NSW is Full” guy) out for pre-poll yesterday.
Labor odds in Penrith are looking good using that logic – they rolled out “Weapons of Mass Destruction” and “George is great”, Mr Howard the other day…fair’s fair..
Yup. Remember the debate was on Sky and only tragics watch Sky.
this is the 3rd election after 2011 and 2015 which is potentially very close under normal circumstances. the polls suggest a 50/50 to 51/49 in labors favour. The first 6 seats on the swing table plus Penrith are likely to be gained by the alp. this causes a hung parliament all by itself
There are at least another 20 seats that could be won by labor, sff and various independents. To assume that they ALL be retained by the lnp is a very heroic assumption
Mick Quinlivan@12:48pm
To expect ALP to win 47 seats is also a very heroic assumptiob.
Ven- to be fair to Mick he has been consistently optimistic for the duration of the campaign!! It is not a new phenomena.
the labor party owes an apology to the people it represents (the public not vested interests) for the bad uninspiring leaders it can throw up
Lots of bed wetting going on over an entirely unpredictable state election….again.
“There must have been a reason that the ALP rolled both KK and Bob Carr (remember him, the “NSW is Full” guy) out for pre-poll yesterday.”
Is this the same KK that was recently at pre-poll in Ku-ring-gai?
https://www.facebook.com/KeelingforKuringgai/photos/a.323449298191664/474805936389332/?type=3&theater
And Pittwater pre-poll? And former premier Unsworth?
https://www.facebook.com/SenatorKeneally/photos/a-premier-pre-poll-team-in-pittwater-today-votelabor/2262453160451874/
Mod lib,
Any tips on why former Labor Premiers would be at pre-poll in very safe Liberal Party seats?
I reckon she prefers the real estate there to that in Bankstown. She had her weekender until recently in Pittwater!
She passionately believes in wealth redistribution, just not hers…
Bob Carr isn’t the most recent NSW Premier to express a view on reducing immigration levels.
Anyone remember this premier from late 2018?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/10/gladys-berejikilian-calls-for-immigration-cut-but-it-could-cost-nsw
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/gladys-berejiklian-to-set-up-migration-panel-to-help-lower-nsw-intake
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/premier-doubles-down-on-calls-for-migrant-intake-to-be-halved-20181010-p508ug.html
No but he’s the only former Premier to actually articulate a narrative that we were actually full. But wait its worse than that – add to it an absolute constipation in any infrastructure projects for the 10 years he was Premier.
He and Daley are perfect for each other as Members for Maroubra.
It looks like KK gets around.
She’s even been to Bankstown.
https://www.facebook.com/SenatorKeneally/videos/398045120979444/UzpfSTE2MTM2NzY5NzMxODE3MjoyMDk0NTcxMzk3MzMxMTE2/
I bet shes not looking at real estate there though….
2 more days to go allows for 2 more gaffes.
It’ll be a Gladys landslide the way it’s going…
moderate,
I don’t know anything about KK in relation to real estate.
I’ve never met KK, or any other Labor MP for that matter.
Geez we had to go around in a big circle to work out where KK and BC had been is not relevant to the polls or the prices of real estate. Total moot point.
Nah Rex – Bruce Hawker has put Daley in a hyperbaric chamber until 6pm Saturday.
Michael Daley been let out to pat a puppy, in Surrey Hills where the Liberals botched light rail project has devastated the lives of the community
moderate @ #73 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 2:18 pm
It’s a bit sad that he’s been found wanting under pressure – but at least voters know that now rather than finding out in a real crisis as Premier.
You must have missed Daley on 2Day FM this morning. Being glued to 2GB not good for your health, moderate
The desperate Liberals campaign against Labor accusing them of “racism” cannot possibly win the Liberals any votes. In the scale of racism the Liberals, Nationals and PHON (i.e. the right-wing of politics) are off the scale!… So who is likely to win those votes? The Greens?… Oh dear, but the Greens are in a bloody Civil War in NSW…
So, where are those votes going to go?…. Back to Labor, of course!… This desperate campaign by Murdoch et al. will have the same effect than the “African gangs” campaign in Victoria: Zero, zilch, nada!
…. Not long to wait now… 🙂
“The number of people who watched last night’s debate and will actually change their vote because of it is equal to the number of empathy cells that Scott Morrison has.
The number of Poll Bludgers who obsess over last night’s debate as if the entire voting population of NSW watched every millisecond and over-analysed every pause, breath, nuance, pronunciation of every syllable is equal to the number of racism cells that Peter Dutton has.
Meanwhile the betting markets barely give a stuff, giving the debate the due credit it deserves.”
Cha Ching. Lols.
You win the internet today. All is forgiven and sorry about my snark yesterday.
“Gladys is, for the moment, the luckiest politician ever”… The Liberals create their own “luck” through pathetic media propaganda… Will this campaign work and give the Neoliberals/Conservatives another term to continue attacking the welfare of the People of NSW?… This could only happen if the People are either stupid or ignorant…. but I don’t think that they are…
“It’s a bit sad that he’s been found wanting under pressure – but at least voters know that now rather than finding out in a real crisis as Premier.”
Yeah. Because handling a real crisis as Premier is a closed book exam.:
“Sorry Premier, but the department couldn’t possibly provide you with a briefing, because that would be cheating’ …
Your anti labor gloating is telling Rex.
To reiterate what I said last night: I am deleting comments that consist exclusively of reflections on other commenters, at least on the NSW threads (lower standards prevail on the main threads, but it would be nice if people didn’t do it there either).
For what it is worth, my prediction is that the NSW libs will narrowly retain majority or narrowly be in minority but secure cross bench support. A swing of 2-4% against them will be hailed as a ‘victory’, but will prove to be a distraction for the >5% swing coming for the fed LNP whenever they go to the polls.
This has been a shocking week for Daley – an orchestrated campaign against him by the murdoch and other RWNJ media that dominate the NSW media market, and a precursor to what Shorten and leading members of the ALP and greens can expect pre-election. I will again bet that the murdoch media and channel 9 will trot out the shorten rape allegations in the closing weeks of the election campaign.
I am still waiting for Mal to confirm that Morrison promoted Islamophobia as a vote winner and has been baldly lying this week. Mal won’t do it until after NSW election – he wants the moderate NSW to be the powerhouse of the lib rump after the election. I hope he does it next week, but want to know why journos aren’t hounding him to answer the question.
“2 more days to go allows for 2 more gaffes.
It’ll be a Gladys landslide the way it’s going…”…
That sounds more like the wishful thinking of a Liberal who really, really, wants to believe that 3 days of Murdochmania propaganda will erase years of politically bankrupt government…
Ha, ha, ha… you guys are so funny…. 🙂
I posted this earlier today on the previous NSW election thread, FYI:
This, from a SMH column by Kylor Loussikian and Samantha Hutchinson today:
“What Labor leader Michael Daley most needs now, with two days to go before state election polls open on Saturday, is a little bit of that ol’ Bruce Hawker magic.
Maybe he can organise a biffo between his boss and Sydney Cricket Ground Trust director Maurice Newman, held WrestleMania-style in whatever’s left of Allianz Stadium?
Readers of this column would have no doubts where we stand on the campaign skills displayed by Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s most senior strategists, having managed to turn Daley from distant prospect into a real shot of winning government in just four months.
But Labor campaigners are rattled, and there’s no doubt about that.
Campaign committee insiders reckon things were looking up last Friday, with NSW Labor general secretary Kaila Murnain optimistic of securing a win on Saturday.
Labor’s tracking polls, conducted by YouGov-Galaxy across a dozen seats from electorates already held by the party to must-win areas like Seven Hills, had been rising for two weeks.
Since then, however, momentum has not just stalled but reversed.
We’re told it’s not worth contemplating the numbers until Thursday, when things solidify.
But operators across both Labor factions have already pointed us to disquiet in Sydney seats over a preference deal with the Shooters, and Daley’s “Asians with PhDs”-gate, which continued yesterday.”
Makes for uncomfortable reading. One might even have to eat a whole humble pie on Saturday night if it’s true. Of course, my own impeccably placed party sources were telling me that thing were still looking excellent to pick up at least 10 seats off the coalition as at noon on Tuesday, a day after the Daley ‘Asians with PhDs’ comment first broke …
“an orchestrated campaign against him by the murdoch and other RWNJ media that dominate the NSW media market”…
The same campaign was tried at the last Vic state election and Qld state election… Result?
In SA they had to change the boundaries of the electorates, otherwise they would have lost too.
In WA, well nothing could have saved them in WA.
So, what about this election in NSW?… It’s clear that ScuMo desperately wants to win this one, to cheer himself and his demoralised troops up a bit. It’s close, for sure, but anything can happen. The flow of preferences will be crucial.
The normal political cycle is One… Two… Out!… A third term is possible, but exceptional… What kind of “exceptional” achievements have the Coalition got in NSW to deserve a third term?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #81 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 2:31 pm
If Daleys gaffe had been confined to Sky News then it wouldn’t create a ripple, but I’ve seen it replayed a couple of times on ABC24. Gaffes get full view on all platforms.
SF – If the swing is on, the swing is on! The rest of this week was just white noise. Actually, I think that, insofar as it matters, voters pick up on HOW politicians say things rather than WHAT they say. DAley looks like a pretty calm dude (from what I’ve seen) and Gladys looks like she just swallowed a ticking bomb.
I will put a bit of money on Labor as I dont believe anything that has happened over the last week justify the size of movement in the betting markets. A lot of the talk is only an issue for rusted on and media.
If Labor could have won last week they could win this saturday. There is no smoking gun. Barely anyone reading the papers and watching sky news. If Labor is doing half a decent job advertising online and campaigning on the ground they are still in this.
It seems to me the commentary is getting away from published polling as we have seen in recent elections.
I don’t understand the large shift in the betting markets. Seems like an over reaction considering most people have made up their minds up their local reps. Daley is a wet blanket but did any of this change how people already looked at him?
Andrew, thank you for that piece from the Herald – very informative. I couldn’t find it online – do you have a link at all?
Thank you
““an orchestrated campaign against him by the murdoch and other RWNJ media that dominate the NSW media market”…”
And “their ABC”. Sarah Gerathy, take a bow (as you chow down a kebab with BFF Gladys over lunch today).
From the ABC, Labor has only the objection to the Stadium whilst the Coalition “are out visiting their massive infrastructure projects”
So is this ABC reporting the narrative for the election?
There is of course visual coverage of the Premier visiting a borer then commentary on the Labor Leader making a series of gaffes
Going off the ABC “vibe” the government will be returned in a landslide
NSW politics has always been what it has been – from Askin from my knowledge and different to other States
The tarnished reputation of some in the most recent ALP administration would still, to me as an outsider, seem to be a negative at least for just the third election (so 8 years) past those activities and a change of government
The main game in town however will be determined in the next 8/10 weeks – not on Saturday
The only thing Saturday will tell us is whether there is any slippage for the Coalition or consolidation – and if they happen to be run very close or even lose the panic within the Coalition will ratchet up to being off the Universe (from off the Globe currently)
Illawarra – It was buried after a piece on Helen Westacott contemplating a sea change in advance of a federal labor government coming to power.
“If Daleys gaffe had been confined to Sky News then it wouldn’t create a ripple, but I’ve seen it replayed a couple of times on ABC24. Gaffes get full view on all platforms.”
#theirabc
Hung Parliament $1.60 at Sportsbet. Was about $1.26 yesterday or the day before.
I’ve just checked all the seat odds at both Sportsbet and Ladbrokes and chucked them all into the spreadsheet for my probability calculations and I still can’t see a majority government. Admittedly the LNP have a slightly better shot at it but they’ve also got more seats at risk. If there is a swing, and the seat odds (and the polls) are implying very strongly that there will be an anti-Govt swing, then they are at risk of losing far more seats than the ALP is once the swing reaches a critical point. Sure, the ALP can/may and is even expected to lose some seats but their seats at risk are much safer than the LNP’s.
Basically, for LNP majority government the opinion polls and the betting odds (which the polls influence but they are not the only factor) would have to be seriously wrong. It can and does happen, though.
Point being, hung parliament odds of $1.60 are very juicy considering the individual seat odds. Whilst some odds have moved they still indicate approximately the same overall seat distribution as earlier this week and even last week.
I’ll try and post more on the probabilities before Saturday.
NSW election leaders’ debates reveal both Gladys Berejiklian and Michael Daley have limits:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-21/analysis-a-tale-of-two-debates-as-nsw-election-looms/10924438
Thank you – found it. Much appreciated.
You could see voters thinking that perhaps Daley, and Labor, just aren’t quite yet ready to take the reins once again.
In saying that though, Gladys and her party aren’t up to the job either.
I’m tipping the incumbent will survive by the skin of her teeth only thanks to Daleys wobbles under pressure.
No single party has released a policy/ statement on how they will protect us frombWhite supremacist right wing terrorism. I wonder why?
Ben Raue – Bangers and ballots: everything you need to know about the NSW election
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/21/bangers-and-ballots-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-nsw-election