The Daily Telegraph has a statewide New South Wales poll from YouGov Galaxy that records a dead head on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 38% and Greens 9%. The poll also records Shooters Fishers and Farmers on 3% and One Nation on 1%, which I presume accounts for the limited number of seats these parties are fielding candidates in, as was the case with YouGov Galaxy’s late campaign polling in Queensland last year. A preferred premier question has Gladys Berejiklian with a 38-36 lead over Michael Daley, which is rather slender for an incumbent. It also finds 47% saying the government’s stadium plans have made them less likely to vote Coalition, compared with only 16% for more likely. The report says the poll was conducted from a sample of 1016 “before The Daily Telegraph broke the story of Mr Daley’s doublespeak over Chinese immigration”, but it’s no more precise than that on the field work period.
Yet again, the is well in line with the existing reading of the state election poll tracker, on which Labor currently leads 50.6-49.4. The trend charts can be viewed over the fold, with the full display featured as part of the election guide.
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With Murdoch and the Greens bashing Michael Daley, can this overcome the years of Liberal brand damage? And the implosion of the Nationals?
If Labor can improve on preference flow from minor parties I think they are looking good. I expect flows from Greens to Labor to improve over 2015, mostly due to fewer exhaustion rates.
Numbers are looking similar to QLD 2015.
It is one of the imponderables – all through last year I wondered whether Labor would ‘cut through’ better with a different leader. Before they got one in early November, even though they had been about level then, I could not see them winning.
All in all, a surprising four months.
@Rocket
Daley level pegging with Gladys on preferred premier is pretty good. So far folks seem to like what they see.
I don’t expect Daley’s remarks from last September will matter all that much.
Gorks
It is my impression that when government is ‘on the line’ fewer votes exhaust. Whereas in 2015 more people would have been happy to give the Coalition a wake-up call by voting “1” for someone else, but they would have been less likely to make sure it could really count. I think Labor were helped by this in Queensland at the last two elections.
OMG, Greens and minor parties and independents on this is 29% in terms of primary vote?
https://amp.theage.com.au/national/nsw/driverless-metro-trains-offer-glimpse-into-sydney-s-transport-future-20190319-p515h8.html; two terms/ eight years and this is still not in service?
JN
21% which is where they were in 2015
My gut feeling is that if Labor’s primary vote stays at 38% or above then they will win.
Saw posters up for the Lib candidate in Summer Hill for the first time today. Apparently his name is Leo Wei.
Who knew?
sprocket_ @ #7 Tuesday, March 19th, 2019 – 10:45 pm
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Got to give credit to Miranda Devine : She does stay on message with her hate speech (sorry freedom of speech) theme ….
“How the left has preyed of Mosque Grief” – That would be a rib tickler read I’m sure, NOT
Funny isn’t it that the Daley “racist” comments were revealed in Murdoch’s Daily Telegraph. Sounds like a direct link to Berejiklian’s dirt unit. How low can they go?
(While dragging the appalling Howard out from underneath his rock).
Bruce Pollock @ #13 Tuesday, March 19th, 2019 – 11:01 pm
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Yeah Johnny forgot to mention the Coalition are preferencing other ‘pro gun’ micro parties;
“One Nation on 1%”…. The “Latham Effect”!
It will be interesting to see the results in Newspoll on Saturday. Will it show any movement in 2PP vote to either side during this week?
Alpo
“One Nation on 1%”…. The “Latham Effect”!
Please let this happen in the upper house vote!
“With Murdoch and the Greens bashing Michael Daley, can this overcome the years of Liberal brand damage? And the implosion of the Nationals?”… and the implosion of One Nation in NSW?
I frankly don’t think so. Methink most voters are learning that those who are responsible for their sad predicament are the same as those who own the media and use them to try to win elections.
The Libs/Nats have their record in Government to run against them, the Greens have their Civil War in NSW… and One Nation have got…. Mark Latham!
It looks like that the ALP is pretty much on top at the moment….
Ha, ha, just how old is that picture of Devine? Don’t get me wrong she has that ‘something’ that many right wing women have, but she certainly doesn’t look like that nowadays.
just found out today that libs have duplicated many of sydney’s ferry routes with private operators allowed to directly compete with state ferries – and on unfavourable terms – some state services end at 4.30pm given monopoly on peak hour to private ferries!
the westconnex, NW railway, and east suburbs light rail were all commenced/planned under labor. libs have only mismanaged misplanned and misspent. they are incompetent, following an extreme privatisation ideology. they will not invest public funds in transport that they cannot sell off to private operators, leaving a legacy of the most expensive tolls ways of any city in the world
may they lose
by allowing unfair competition with private operators (mates?) the lib nsw govt stage managers a case for loss of patronage and income on state ferries, and argument to sell off whole fleet – amateurs, led by private interests
It’s probable that National Party loses alone are going to cost the Coalition majority government.
You could fill several brand new Sydney stadiums to the brim with pissed off former Nats voters from rural NSW.
If the National Party wants to remain electable (and relevant) and have a say in future NSW governments, it has no choice other than to forget about ‘Coalition agreements’ and offer support on a simple supply and confidence basis as a totally separate political entity from the Liberal Party. The Nats have to choose between throwing their weight of numbers around in the best interests of rural and regional communities, or disappear into a dust storm of independents (and to a lesser degree SFF).
The writing has been on the wall for years.
Rural folk aren’t as stupid and gullible as the party that purports to represent them.
No one has a clue who wins the election. Down to a few hundred votes in the outer suburbs and lots of bush seats.
Anthony will not be calling this at 8.17
The Baird and Berejiklian Gov’ts have relentlessly pursued an agenda of attempting to wipe out unionised labour.
Hence privatisation, hence driverless trains.
Everything we do a private ticket clipper gets its cut.
Cost of living in this state is now ridiculously high.
Only water has escaped, and I suspect it is on the LNP wishlist.
Daley should expose this by publishing a list of every one of the LNP mates who now have these nice little earners we can’t escape.
Toll roads, property transactions (Lands and Property), electricity, desal plant, Opal card, ‘state’ buses, ferries, light rail, hospitals, …. The list seems endless.
Except, of course, parliamentary pensions.
I have no idea who will win. I think it is a good idea that Labor are getting Jay Weatherall to campaign with them. He is credible on renewable energy action and the Libs are vulnerable on lack of climate action. Shorten should ask him to campaign in May as well.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/20/nsw-labor-brings-in-jay-weatherill-to-bolster-its-climate-credentials
Al Pal @5:41.
“No one has a clue who wins the election. Down to a few hundred votes in the outer suburbs and lots of bush seats.
Anthony will not be calling this at 8.17”
Nor will he be likely to any time on election night by the look of things.
That is why the kerfuffle over Dayley’s remarks last September is so dispiriting. It is, as intended, drowning out much of Labor’s message in the last critical days of the campaign. The media, including the ABC, are going on and on and on and on about the mote in Daley’s and Labor’s eye, because a Sydney newspaper that uses race-baiting as a business model, in support of a political party that at Federal level uses race-baiting as a business model, wants us to. We shouldn’t be taking the bait.
Of course all this won’t change many votes but it doesn’t have to, just a few at the margins.
Gladys Berejeklian does not condemn the race-baiting of Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton nor that of Linda Reynolds on Q&A the other day. She is a member of a party that garners votes using the dogwhistle. Admittedly at this time at state level in NSW, the “Liberals” aren’t quite the nasty hard-right outfit they are at Federal level. This could easily change, however.
Gladys Berejeklian – Peter Dutton, same same.
Does the DT know what it has done? See the EMERGENCY EXIT sign above Berejiklian’s head. A bit like Abbott in front of the Reject Shop.
The picture was taken yesterday aboard the (not yet running) driverless metro.
clem attlee says:
Tuesday, March 19, 2019 at 11:36 pm
Ha, ha, just how old is that picture of Devine? Don’t get me wrong she has that ‘something’ that many right wing women have, but she certainly doesn’t look like that nowadays
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I know the look you mean. As if they can taste the vile hatred that drives them.
Citizen made an interesting point. The photo of Gladys on the metro might have a lot of commuters thinking: ” Where is my seat on the ride home!” It would be interesting to know how people react.
Great minds think alike! My comment from the other thread….
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, March 20, 2019 at 8:19 am
It will be interesting to see whether the Murdoch/LiberalHQ last minute surge against NSW Labor moves the dial at all. And I suspect they are losing the meme generation.
For example, rather than following up with more hysteria on Michael Daley and his Asian comments – a hard sell in Sydney Boganville where many of their readers would be agreeing – what do they put on the front page of the DT?
A smiling GladysB on an empty carriage. Just what people standing on packed carriages or gridlocked on roads every day want to see. A reminder of what they have been putting up with for years – Liberal promises of empty roads and empty carriages, against the reality
Ben Raue, Rebecca Huntley and WB have completed a podcast on NSW election
http://www.tallyroom.com.au/
Around Chatswood station there are signs proclaiming that the metro will be opening in ‘mid 2019’. Why no date? Why not, say, Sunday June 30th, or whatever? I can find no opening date on Google. It is very strange that at this late stage the opening date for such a large project is not yet known, or at least hasn’t yet been announced. I wouldn’t be surprised if another delay were to be announced after the election?
And won’t it be fun when the metro dumps 1,000 passengers on the already congested Chatswood station every 4 minutes, assuming that it runs to schedule.
sprocket, Gladys’s carriage could be packed with people behind the photo.
The fact that she is standing (ie not sitting) right up against the door ticks the right boxes for optics IMO.
Adrian – It’s not the right optics for people who like to sit down and watch their favourite TV series on the way home (indeed, it’s the only place they get to watch it!)
Actually I do think that the design of the metro carriages is for Sydney’s needs than the current double-decker carriages. The latter seem to be designed to carry comfortably seated passengers over long distances. That works reasonably well in off-peak periods, when the trains are carrying well below capacity, in fact might be nearly empty. They don’t really work in peak hours in the inner suburbs, where passengers pack into the vestibule and those who want to get on and off out have to work their way through the pack.
The metro design acknowledges the fact that in peak hour, it’s cattle class. In off-peak periods and in outer suburbs, most passengers would be seated.
@Steve777
The planned opening date for the Metro has been widely rumoured to be May 5th. The only thing holding back announcing a date at the moment is the line doesn’t have approval for passenger operations form the national rail safety regulator. Once that approval come through it should be pretty quick to opening.
They don’t really work in peak hours in the inner suburbs,
True. Problem is that Rouse Hill is about as far from the inner suburbs as it’s possible to get.
I’m not anti the metro per se, but people out in the North West that this is meant to serve will be thinking about seats.
Either way it won’t make any real electoral difference. None of the seats on the route are in play. Meanwhile the light rail chaos is likely to ensure Coogee changes hands and the demo at the SFS is pissing voters off statewide.
NSW election voting is different from every other state — Antony Green explains why:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-20/nsw-election-voting-explained-by-antony-green/10916802
One of the quirks about the metro is the Macquarie line will have more seats per hour after the metro than it did prior to the conversion. Don’t get sucked into bad mathematics/lies.
I think I have the slogan that the Liberal Party is going to use on Saturday, out of the mouth of the Liberal guy here today at the Pre Poll :
‘Keep the NSW economy number 1 and the unemployment the lowest in Australia. Vote 1 for the Coalition. ‘
As Steve777 notes, Chatswood station is already congested, particularly at peak times. Nobody from the government has explained (surprise surprise) how it is going to cope with the additional passengers heading to the city.
And meanwhile on pollbludger? In that alternate ALP universe, Daley’s comments don’t touch the sides. Gee Chris Minns must have got it all wrong with his apology. And it’s all over every outlet including smh!!
“As Steve777 notes, Chatswood station is already congested, particularly at peak times. Nobody from the government has explained (surprise surprise) how it is going to cope with the additional passengers heading to the city.”
I would imagine that folk going to the city from stations west of Epping will get off the metro at Epping and catch the northern line to town.
I doubt the numbers of commuters who get on the metro between Epping and Chatswood, intending to go all the way to town will be be much greater than those who commute to town on the previous heavy rail trains. In fact many of them may chose to get to town by catching the metro the other way, ie. Macquarie Park to Epping, changing for CBD.
Mnnn. Chris Minns. Still campaigning for the leadership.
moderate. You sound rattled. Wonder why.
It’s really hard to predict the impact of the Daley story.
The big issues for him are that it could impact the preference flow from Greens voters (i.e. from the left), and then also impact the immigrant vote. It also sucks all the oxygen out of the last days of the campaign.
On the flip side, it could help his preference flows from One Nation voters (ugh), but I doubt that the gains will offset the losses.
Seat-wise, Oatley is definitely out the window and East Hills is probably done as well. Strathfield might come into play for the Libs. IMHO, If Labor loses Strathfield, it’s game over.
Balmain is definitely out of the question now too.
What a numpty. Anyway, he’s got a shot tonight to put on a stellar performance at the debate. Very unlikely, as these things tend to be non-events.
Moderate @10:37
“And meanwhile on pollbludger? In that alternate ALP universe, Daley’s comments don’t touch the sides. Gee Chris Minns must have got it all wrong with his apology. And it’s all over every outlet including smh!!”
Yes we should all bellow about it day and night because Newscrap wants us to. Something said in passing six months ago they didn’t bother call out then. Meanwhile Morriscum lies about urging his party colleagues to race-bait and goes unchallenged.
The “Liberals” use race-baiting as part of their business model, have done so for two decades and are now pretending they don’t.
Gladys Berejeklian – Peter Dutton – Pauline Hanson same same same.
Not helping you today though Stevie boy??
Oh yeah Andrew I’m crapping myself because of the great day Daley is having. Absolutely beside myself with nerves…
clem attlee @ #19 Tuesday, March 19th, 2019 – 11:36 pm
That would be Botox. It stops their faces twisting up with hatred.