Newspoll: 50-50 in New South Wales

With less than a fortnight to go, another poll finds nothing in it in New South Wales.

The Australian has a New South Wales state poll from Newspoll that records a dead heat on two-party preferred, unchanged from the previous poll in late January. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 40%, Labor is steady on 36% and the Greens are steady on 10%. Gladys Berejiklian’s lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 44-31 to 41-34, and both leaders’ personal ratings are improved: Berejiklian is up three on approval to 44% and down five on disapproval to 38%, while Michael Daley is up four to 37% and down two to 38%. The poll was conducted Friday to Monday from a sample of 1003.

Once again, the poll is entirely consistent with the existing reading of the state election poll tracker, on which Labor still has its nose in front on two-party preferred. The trend charts can be viewed over the fold, with the full display featured as part of the election guide.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

137 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50 in New South Wales”

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  1. Andrew Clennel of the SmearStralian saying

    Word is Heathcote in a bit of strife for Libs despite a margin of 7.6 per cent! Gladys robocalls going into the seat tonight

    Same in Camden The Entrance and Goulburn. Camden is on 18%

  3. mick quinlivan,
    I thought Dr Joe McGirr was an old Labor man who resigned over the gross behaviour of the Obeid/Tripodi clique?

  4. Ven @ #98 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 5:54 pm

    PM@10:39am
    You are right. ALP is not in a position to win any of the seats you mentioned. I think AE is just hoping for best. The losses to Libs in Greater Sydney will be minimal.
    Women are major voters for ALP and they are not breaking towards ALP this time around because many educated, working women can identify with Gladys B.

    No they don’t. I’ve been in 2 focus groups conducted for the Liberal Party and I didn’t hear anything more than, ‘she seems nice’.

  6. Ven @ #97 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 5:45 pm

    P1 &V@tmomma
    KK is much better than Anna Bligh and Anastasia P. However, Anna B and Anastasia P have won reelection where as KK lost her election. KK lost because she was given Chalice brimming with poison. ALP has this habit of giving premiership or leadership to women when everything is completely screwed up. Examples, Carmen Lawrence (what is she doing?), Joan Kirner, KK and to some extent Gillard.

    Kristina Keneally was so talented that the ALP never really let her go. She was engaged in a mentoring program for up and coming ALP politicians of the female gender after she was defeated as NSW Premier and before being chosen to run in Bennelong and then as a NSW Senator. Only a little bit of poison went her way. 🙂

  7. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 9:06 pm
    What is all this talk about The Entrance!?! It’s a Labor seat already!

    Maybe sprocket meant Terrigal?

  8. My wife isn’t a fan of Gladys. She calls her “Your Gladys” because I once made the mistake of saying I liked how earnest she is. (Years ago).

  9. Watch Parramatta. Likeable Lib incumbent Geoff Lee is worried by massive enrolment turnover with apartment boom and influx of renters. Notionally 12% margin but that’s inflated by 2011 landslide numbers which held for him in 2015. It’s been solid for ALP federally since 2004.

  10. Joe McGirr as far as I know has never been a alp party member…. his distant relatives were members for
    Cootamundra in the 1920s…. a relative was a one term premier and member for Bankstown (Jim?) and I think another relative was an mlc

  11. interesting with so many seats competitive it appears unlikely the vote is really 50/50 or 51/49 or the 2pp means nothing. would be interesting to identify seats which the liberals and nationals CANNOT
    lose…………

  14. The thing with the polling is that OPV can make it much harder to get a meaningful 2PV if the exhaustion rates change.

    Also if there are big regional variations these can be missed in the statewide polling.

    For instance if the Libs vote is holding up in the North Shore and Rural seats and Labor is down in Nats seats with big Independent/SFF votes, then that leaves enough votes in the polling for the traditional Labor Western Suburbs seats to come into play even though they look safe on the pendulum.

  15. mick Quinlivan – Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 6:15 pm

    “look at Coffs Harbor figures for 2015…. this seat is not safe for the Nationals but was safe for the retiring mp Mr Fraser…….. he popped 54% primary but won 64% against labor…… I would expect 58% based on the expected pattern. of preferences”

    I wouldn’t count on the Nats taking a hit in Coffs on Andrew Fraser’s retirement. Fraser was an ineffective blowhard, and the new Nat candidate Gurmesh Singh seems much more credible and connected to the community.

    What *will* make a difference in Coffs is a reasonably strong independent (local Councillor Sally Townley, ex-Green, and well respected), and how much lasting damage the Nats did by trying to stiff the community by switching to a vastly inferior design of the Pacific Highway bypass after funding was secured in the 2018 NSW and federal budgets. That blew up in September ’18, and they’ve recently performed a not entirely convincing backflip just in time for the election. The bypass is, by far, the hottest election issue here.

    Not sure how well preferences will flow between Labor and Townley, or who will finish second, but I suspect Nats will get home on around 53-58% unless stars align on the night. Hard to call, though, which is more than can usually be said.

    Best shot at Nats losing is probably for Labor to finish third and boost Townley. If Townley is third, more of her preferences will likely exhaust or go to Nats than would have from Labor. Not sure that Townley has campaigned well enough in the last few weeks to finish a strong second though.

  18. Question @ #107 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 9:41 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 9:06 pm
    What is all this talk about The Entrance!?! It’s a Labor seat already!

    Maybe sprocket meant Terrigal?

    That would be nice. 🙂

    Candidate et al, which includes moi, are working our butts off to make it happen and the Liberal MP is a waste of space. They wanted one of the handsome young turks of the Liberal Party to have this seat but they were all associated with Chris Hartcher! So the only guy they could find who wasn’t was a guy from outside the seat who worked as a middle manager for Scholastic books. 😆

  19. jp… don’t know about Andrew Fraser as never met him….. just looking at figures to make my comments
    I would not be sure of the result in Coffs Harbor….. but this is my point that it appears the seat is competitive. like many many others

  21. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 6:08 am
    Illawarra Observer @ #112 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 10:16 pm

    Lots of Robo calling in Kiama this week. Surely that’s not normal for what is, on paper, a very safe seat?

    Gareth Ward on the nose with Ann Sudmalis supporters?

    –

    You read the tea leaves well Cat 😀

  22. Definitely not a lot of love for each other in local LNP ranks at the moment due to the Glmore Girls episodes….but not sure that would translate to fears about the seat….ALP not putting much into it, despite efforts of candidate…

  24. https://www.smh.com.au/nsw-election-2019/grubby-tactics-aha-accused-of-push-polling-in-greens-seats-20190314-p5142k.html

    The NSW Greens have accused the powerful industry lobby group the Australian Hotels Association of “grubby political tactics”, after voters in key marginal seats said they were targeted by a push-polling campaign.

    Balmain Greens MP Jamie Parker referred the lobby group to the NSW Electoral Commission last week after residents contacted him with reports that they had been subject to a biased poll funded by the AHA.
    :::
    Mr Parker believes the AHA NSW’s motivation was the party’s strong anti-gambling policies, which the party may be in a position to prosecute more forcefully should next week’s election end in a hung Parliament.

    “This is a grubby political tactic from a lobby desperate to protect its precious cash cow – the poker machine,” Mr Parker said.

  25. Off topic – but relevant in so much so that it makes participation in this discussion easier – is there a way to register and log in for this site? Just using the Leave a reply and adding details each time…I can see there’s a log in area, but nowhere to register? Any assistance appreciated. Long time lurker, first time posting last night…

  26. Steve777 – says it all that the NSW govt would make a nong like Upton Environment Minister. That’s the equivalent of saying it wants nothing done.

  27. The fact that the libs launched at Penrith Panthers and the ALP at Revesby Workers suggests poker machine reform is not a high priority going forward.

  28. Anyone heard that Michael Daley says that he will now rebuild Allianz Stadium? Local Liberal candidate here has started telling voters that as they walk in to vote.

  29. C@t,

    This is the best I can find with a quick search. Nine hours ago in the Australian.

    With the demolition of ­Allianz appearing to scale up yesterday, Mr Daley said: “If they knock it down, I’m not going to turn it into a rose garden. I’m hoping we can keep the shell and do a refurbishment. That’s the hope.”
    But if it were too late, he said: “I will build the stadium but it won’t be the $730m lavish monument, the cost of which has never been explained. It will be something more in keeping with (the new) Parramatta stadium.
    “They need to explain what’s the difference between a $729m Allianz and a $360m Parramatta (stadium), when the difference in capacity is not huge.”
    The government has put the price of a refurbishment of ­Allianz at $351m.

  30. C@tmomma, which seat would that be?

    I’ve just voted. I have a friend running in the ungrouped section of the LegCo. So I spent quite some time numbering below the line. I got to 99 before I gave up.

  31. “Illawarra Observer says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 9:45 am
    Off topic – but relevant in so much so that it makes participation in this discussion easier – is there a way to register and log in for this site? Just using the Leave a reply and adding details each time…I can see there’s a log in area, but nowhere to register? Any assistance appreciated. Long time lurker, first time posting last night…”

    You’re right, there doesn’t seem to be a way to register’. In the sidebar is a section “Contact the Poll Bludger” and let our moderator know of the problem.

  34. If Allianz can’t be saved for renovation, and the rose garden option apparently ruled out (which I would favour – the “Ayres-SCG Trust Memorial Gardens”), then Daley and NSW Labor would be better off getting Philip Cox to design a version of Melbourne’s AAMI Park – with an initial capacity of around 35,000, but with the capability to upgrade it to between 50 & 55,000 at a later date (like AAMI can apparently be upgraded). I reckon Labor would get change out of $300 million if they drove a hard bargain AND the reconstituted SCG Trust should pay it back within 35 years!

  35. Mike Carlton
    ‏@MikeCarlton01

    Did an absentee vote in the NSW election today. There’s an extraordinary number of people named Roberts running for One Nation. I fear they’re multiplying, like amoeba in a sewer.

  36. Some light amusement for late Friday…

    “…In the Liberals’ marginal seat of East Hills on Friday, Premier Gladys Berejiklian announced her government, if re-elected, would ease congestion using “cutting edge” technology…” blah blah blah

    https://www.smh.com.au/nsw-election-2019/take-pressure-off-families-berejiklian-s-ambitious-695-million-package-20190315-p514j6.html

    SMH trolling Gladys by using the picture of the traffic lights at the corner of Knox and New South Head Road, Double Bay?

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