We may not get a new federal poll this week, with the fortnightly Newspoll and Essential Research having reported last week, and the monthly Ipsos doing so the week before. However, two further Liberal resignations (with widespread suggestions Craig Laundy will shortly follow in Reid) are keeping the preselection news treadmill rolling:
• Christopher Pyne’s departure announcements opens a vacancy in the eastern Adelaide seat of Sturt, which he has held since 1993, when he was 25. However, the loss of his personal vote may damage the Liberals’ chances of defending the seat’s 5.4% post-redistribution margin, with Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reporting a “senior South Australian Liberal” saying the party was in “big trouble” in the seat. Luke Griffiths of The Australian cites “multiple Liberal sources” as saying the preselection is “almost certain” to go to James Stevens, the chief-of-staff to Premier Steven Marshall, who is aligned with Pyne’s moderate faction and has his personal support. However, Pyne’s own former chief-of-staff, Adam Howard, is “considered an outside chance”, and there “might be a push by branch members to preselect a female candidate”.
• The Gold Coast seat of Moncrieff will be vacated by the retirement of Steve Ciobo, who came to the seat in 2001 at the age of 27. The aforesaid report in The Australian identifies four potential nominees: Karly Abbott, a staffer to Ciobo and the reputed front-runner; John-Paul Langbroek, who holds the state seat of Surfers Paradise and served as Opposition Leader from 2009 to 2011; Tim Rawlings, former chief-of-staff to Tracy Davis, then a minister in Campbell Newman’s government; and Bibe Roadley, managing director of a training company.
Also:
• The West Australian reports five nominees for preselection in Curtin: Celia Hammond, until recently the vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, whom media reports suggest is the front-runner; Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, who is said to have backing from Julie Bishop; Anna Dartnell, an executive for resources company Aurizon; Karen Caddy, Stirling councillor and management consultant for BusinX Consulting; and the sole male candidate, Andres Timmermanis, Cambridge councillor and manager for IT firm Scantek Solutions, who has been mentioned in relation to a number of western suburbs preselections over the years.
• The Saturday Paper reports a uComms poll conducted for UnionsACT on January 23 suggested ACT Liberal Senator Zed Seselja was in danger of losing his seat to an independent or the Greens. The polling is said to show Liberal support at 22.4%, down from 33.2% at the 2016 election and 24.2% in a poll conducted in October; Labor on 33.1%, down from 37.9% in 2016 and 39.3% in the October; the Greens on 19.9%, up from 16.1% in 2016 and 17.0% in October; and independent/other on 17.7%, up from 12.7% in 2016 and 13.9% in October. This leaves 6.9% undecided in the January poll, and 5.6% in the October poll. Seselja is also credited with an approval rating of just 29%, compared with 59% disapproval. Anthony Pesec, “local businessman, former investment banker and renewable energy developer”, announced last week he would run as an independent. Were Seselja to lose, it would be the first time in either of the two territories that the two Senate seats did not split between the two major parties.
Newsflash!
Someone at work said they were robopolled for Kooyong (by mobile – they moved from the electorate last year so who knows how these things are done). Anyway they stayed on the line to answer anyway.
They didn’t think Julian Burnside was mentioned by name – just Greens. But Liberal, Labor and Independent were named. (Maybe it was started before Burnside put his hand up)
Standard questions as far as they recalled – one was final prefernce “Liberal or Oliver Yates”
And other one about most important issue – same list (with my prompting of memory) as pretty much usual.
Was done by GetUp! so they must be looking at helping Yates I would imagine.
I wonder if this will be published/selectively leaked, especially with say some GetUp! event?
nath says:
Wednesday, March 6, 2019 at 1:52 pm
Problem is those booths shifted into Higgins from Hotham were not the most friendly ALP booths in Hotham. In fact I think one of them is a Liberal majority booth and with decent greens votes. I think!
–
My memory isnt that good Nath. I will have to go and look it up. Cheers.
I do recall someone in the Libs machine telling me the marginals in VICTORIA were gone at Xmas time….internal polling. Now its a bun fight over saving some furniture.
They said they were polled yesterday, and also asked to rate Frydenberg’s performance on a scale of maybe 1-9 or something with descriptors for each number. (excellent – very good – etc etc)
Yes, GetUp are supporting Yates.
Looking at the seat of Kooyong and the state seats the are in and around it.
Labor won Hawthorn, Box Hill & Burwood at the state election. Liberals won Kew and Balwyn.
Labor/Greens/Ind will do well south of Whitehorse Rd (follow the railway line).
It’s in play.
As for what Labor or greens should do. Try to maximize their vote. Full stop. No running dead anywhere. If it costs you a seat in doing so, the loss of the one battle will be minor in the scale of the war.
Does anyone know how you can do a seat poll with mobiles numbers?
The Government’s economic management being given a bashing.
https://t.co/o6ZrZWDujb
Has Late Riser got their “lists” running for the coming polls? (‘anticipated’ dates)
Newspoll – Sunday 10 March
Essential – Tuesday 12 March
Ipsos – Sunday 17 March
I wonder if there’s any action in Flinders…
As I predicted, ScumMo has crashed the economy. Letting in large numbers of plane arrivals is all that keeps Australia from being in recession. For most people it feels like a recession now. Poor housing and retail figures pretty much guaranteed this result.
“Australia’s economy just entered recession on a per capita basis”
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-06/gdp-q4-2018/10874592
So where is stable plan, oh great economic managers? They are too busy rorting their expenses to run the country. Pathetic.
There is little doubt Labor will win with a clear majority in the HofR. It’s only a matter of how much.
Sometimes your stomach/mouth just isn’t big enough!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-06/giant-scrub-python-spotted-devouring-wallaby-in-queensland/10875138
Started watching this 30min presentation by PvO but 2mins into it he trashes his own credibility on predictions by noting:
– he predicted Rudd would not win in 2007.
– he predicted Rudd would not get rolled in his first term.
– he predicted Gillard would win a majority in the HoR.
– he predicted Rudd would not return.
– he predicted there was no way Abbott would get rolled in his first term.
– he predicted Turnbull would rush to an election and win a majority in 2016.
– etc etc.
https://youtu.be/DMKJoztX53Y
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/05/eu-faces-nationalist-nightmare-in-next-five-years-says-verhofstadt
The nationalist Pop-Right threaten the European order….very troubling.
Davidwh says:
Wednesday, March 6, 2019 at 2:11 pm
There is little doubt Labor will win with a clear majority in the HofR. It’s only a matter of how much.
Do you have a forecast for Queensland?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/06/deal-huge-coal-fired-power-plant-hunter-hong-kong
Idiocy, stupidity, nonsense….
autocrat
I lived in Kooyong between 2012 and 2014, and I think you’re mostly right. In general:
* Frydenburg just isn’t bright enough to be credible without a lot of support.
* The LNP is looking at a disastrous result. (Ergo no support for F.)
* People aren’t dumb.
* Kooyong people fear Labor.
So what are the choices for the good people of Kooyong?
Liberal (Frydenburg) – nope
Labor (Stewart) – nope
ex-Lib (Yates) – maybe
Greens (Burnside) – soft maybe
And on a related matter, it took some searching to uncover who the Labor candidate is for Kooyong, only finding her on the Labor party website. https://www.alp.org.au/our-people/our-people/jana-stewart/
There was plenty of coverage for Yates and Burnside. Where Labor were mentioned at all it was simple as “Labor”.
Socrates
Morrison’s plan will be in the budget.
My bet would be some dodgy accounting to declare a surplus, a few handouts as pre-election sweeteners and lots of pie in the sky funding commitments and ideas that wont take effect until beyond the forward estimates.
And lots of blaming Labor.
His problem will be getting people to believe any of it in an election campaign.
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, March 6, 2019 at 2:19 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/06/deal-huge-coal-fired-power-plant-hunter-hong-kong
Idiocy, stupidity, nonsense….
_____
……and a stunt.
I don’t know what their game is, but it is not to make money from funding their own coal-fired power plant built from scratch.
Briefly my guess is the LNP will lose 3 or 4 seats in QLD.
briefly @ #2463 Wednesday, March 6th, 2019 – 2:17 pm
Bludgertrack has Labor winning up to 7 seats on previous election.
Barney in Vinh Chau @ #2257 Wednesday, March 6th, 2019 – 1:51 pm
Yes, but how do we know the diocese will keep an up-to-date or even genuine list of those who have a valid ‘working with children check’
The track record of the church has not been very good or trustworthy so far.
Confessions says:
Wednesday, March 6, 2019 at 2:15 pm
Started watching this 30min presentation by PvO but 2mins into it he trashes his own credibility on predictions by noting:
– he predicted Rudd would not win in 2007.
– he predicted Rudd would not get rolled in his first term.
– he predicted Gillard would win a majority in the HoR.
– he predicted Rudd would not return.
– he predicted there was no way Abbott would get rolled in his first term.
– he predicted Turnbull would rush to an election and win a majority in 2016.
– etc etc.
https://youtu.be/DMKJoztX53Y
–
Thanks for the link. I think he must be sharing the same crystal ball as Chris Kenny these days. He is getting worse at his reading of the political tea-leaves and turning into a meh commentator. Pass.
Socrates – Yep, this govt LOVES having asylum seekers come in by plane because it’s work choices by stealth. The 40,000 people with review applications before the AAT will all work for crap wages and crap conditions.
For general information.
Lucie Morris-Marr
Verified account
@luciemorrismarr
17m17 minutes ago
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Breaking; If Pell is granted leave to appeal his hearing by the Court of Appeal will take place June 5 & 6. #CardinalPell
Davidwh….cheers…..you’re a lot more cautious than BludgerTrack….
With all the talk of the Liberals in Victoria, does anyone see them regaining Indi now that McGowan is retiring?
Have I got a forecast for Qld?
Beautiful one day – who knows when (probably once all the Nats are gone)…
TPOF @ #2464 Wednesday, March 6th, 2019 – 2:21 pm
Morrison and Shorten have questions to answer…
EB:
I don’t put PvO in the same category as Chris Kenny – far from it.
He has good insights into the Liberals and I find his commentary on the whole, interesting. The odd piece here and there can be weird and off base though.
Briefly I keep hoping it will be a bath rather than a obliteration 🙂
On Armidale priest checks this is exactly why exemptions from HR laws for churches must be moved as soon as there is a change of government. They get abused.
Ross
You are correct. But a budget full of bribes will only confirm what we have all known for a while. There never was a plan other than to pay off business donors.
Confessions @ #2472 Wednesday, March 6th, 2019 – 2:28 pm
Why would any Indi voter shift their vote to this bunch of Liberals …?
Briefly
Hopefully William following the polls is more indicative of where thing land than DWH caution over things like the narrowing.
Either way it’s a Labor majority
I think it’s time that all the religious orders were required to comply with the same standards as any secular corporation….time to remove the exemptions from tax, from anti-discrimination provisions, to require them to publish financial returns and to satisfy all the regulatory requirements imposed on other ‘legal persons’.
It would be good for them. It would be good for society.
There are no valid reasons whatsoever that religious organs should be exempted from the laws that apply to everyone else.
David…..a passing shower rather than a flood….
Guytaur William’s program is much more scientific than my gut.
PvO says Labor have 35 of the 74 govt held seats on their target seat list. Canning is one of them, and he believes that is in play to switch to Labor.
I hope this happens. I’d love to see another religious reactionary in Hastie booted out from parliament.
Let’s see
3rd quarter (July 1 – September 30) – Morrison then Frydenberg Treasurer
– GDP growth 0.3% (well below expectations)
4th quarter (October 1 – December 31) – Morrison PM, Frydenberg Treasurer
– GDP growth 0.2% (expectations had been lowered from 0.6% to 0.4% but few expected 0.2%)
Australia needs to remove these two – they are slowly driving the economy over a cliff (while arguing about who should be driving, and how bad a driver that Bill Shorten bloke would be)
According to most in the media this is brilliant economic management, all the while with Morrison saying that Labor represents a threat to the GDP growth!
Confessions, here’s some thoughts (a reposting)
https://insidestory.org.au/twilight-of-the-liberals/
PvO has Murdochs syndrome.
Rocket Rocket @ #2456 Wednesday, March 6th, 2019 – 1:08 pm
I can start em up! This is all I’ve got so far.
PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-03-10
PB mean: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 7
ALP / LNP
56 / 44 bilko
54 / 46 booleanbach
53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
54 / 46 rhwombat
52 / 48 SilentMajority
56 / 44 Simon² Katich®
53 / 47 sustainable future
fess
If it were a ‘normal’ election, I’d be picking the Lib for Indi (the Liberal primary held up reasonably well, it’s the preferences that cooked Mirabella…) but given that you’d expect a swing against the Libs on primaries this election and Indi is going to be a four cornered contest (Indie, Libs, Nats, Labor) it’s really impossible to pick.
Also the Lib candidate is a total non entity and doesn’t seem to have much of a clue about campaigning.
DWH
Of course. I don’t think William has called the election yet. Only said what the polls are telling us now. 🙂
briefly @ #2480 Wednesday, March 6th, 2019 – 2:32 pm
That would effectively be banning the current structure of the RCC in particular.
Good proposition briefly.
booleanbach says:
Wednesday, March 6, 2019 at 2:25 pm
Yep, but it makes them accountable for their priests.
They need to have their shit together or it might come back and bite them in a big way.
‘At the state election, the Coalition held off challenges from independents in Benambra, Eildon, Euroa and Ovens Valley…’
At the state election, all of those seats had sitting members.
“PvO has Murdochs syndrome.”
That would be a compulsion to write bullshit?
Barney – yes that bishop could find himself facing charges in the future surely should one of his “no WWCC” subordinates offend.
Confessions says:
Wednesday, March 6, 2019 at 2:35 pm
PvO says Labor have 35 of the 74 govt held seats on their target seat list. Canning is one of them, and he believes that is in play to switch to Labor.
I hope this happens. I’d love to see another religious reactionary in Hastie booted out from parliament.
I reckon Hastie’s a goner. Labor are working hard there.
I also think 35 seats is about right too. Labor may not win them all….but they can be identified. There are also LNP-held seats that are vulnerable to Indies. I hope the LNP are returned with fewer than 40 seats between them. This will shake them to the core.