Leadership ratings revisited

Picking apart personal approval and preferred prime minister ratings in the Morrison era.

BludgerTrack’s leadership approval and preferred prime ministership readings have been in limbo since last August’s leadership change, since it was necessary to accumulate a certain amount of data before Morrison-era trends could usefully be generated. I have now finally got around to doing something about this, the results of which can be found through the link below:

This exercise has to contend with the very substantial idiosyncrasies of the various pollsters, of which three produce data that can meaningfully be compared with each other: Newspoll, Essential and Ipsos (there are also a handful of small-sample Morgan results in the mix). This is done by calculating a trend exclusively from Newspoll, determining the other pollsters’ average deviations from that trend, and adjusting their results accordingly. For whatever reason, Newspoll appears to be a particularly tough marker, which means the other pollsters are adjusted very substantially downwards on approval and upwards on disapproval:

Ipsos Essential
PM approval -11.0% -3.1%
PM disapproval +8.9% +8.6%
OL approval -5.5% -1.0%
OL disapproval +2.4% +9.5%
PM preferred -4.8% -0.3%

“PM preferred” refers to the size of the Prime Minister’s lead over the Opposition Leader in preferred prime minister polling – so Ipsos, for example, records relatively large leads for the Prime Minister in comparison with Newspoll, and is adjusted accordingly.

The job of charting trendlines through the spread of results is complicated by some notable outliers at around the time of the leadership transition. Malcolm Turnbull’s critics on the right are very keen on an Ipsos poll conducted over the last week of his prime ministership, as it is the only evidence polling has to offer that the Coalition’s present dismal position is not entirely down to the avoidable disaster of Turnbull’s removal. After a period of fairly consistent 51-49 results from all pollsters, this poll found Labor’s lead blowing out to 55-45 – and Malcolm Turnbull down nine on approval and up ten on disapproval. However, the BludgerTrack trend is not overly responsive to single poll results, so it records no sudden decline at the end of Turnbull’s tenure – only the levelling off an improving trend going back to late 2017.

Immediately after the leadership change, two pollsters posed questions on preferred prime minister, though not leadership approval. These produced very different results – a 39-33 lead for Bill Shorten from Newspoll, and a 39-29 lead for Scott Morrison from Essential. Newspoll is given a heavier weighting than Essential, so the trend follows its lead in finding Shorten with a very short-lived lead immediately after the leadership change. However, none of the fifteen poll results have replicated a lead for Shorten, so it is entirely possible that the Newspoll result was an outlier and the lead never existed in the first place.

The bigger picture is that Scott Morrison started well on net approval, but has now settled in roughly where Malcolm Turnbull was in his final months; that he is under-performing Turnbull on preferred prime minister; and that Bill Shorten’s net rating, while still not great, has been on a steady upward path since the leadership change.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,082 comments on “Leadership ratings revisited”

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  1. How does Sangha get anywhere near a CA XI game when every other batsman in the squad is in or around the test set up? It’s a joke. He shouldn’t have been picked for NSW yet, but you know they’ll pick him for the Ashes because “potential”. He’ll end up the millennial Shaun Marsh.

  2. a r @ #205 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 12:24 pm

    steve davis @ #197 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 11:18 am

    Bravehearts founder says that the new Lib policy public register of sex offenders is a political stunt.

    An ineffective political stunt, as I can’t really see a reason why Labor wouldn’t just get right behind it anyways.

    You just have to be careful to avoid stupid edge cases like “an 18 year old has consensual sex with their 16 year old partner, gets done for statutory rape, and now is listed as a sex offender for life”.

    I think that is only a problem in SA and VIC. Elsewhere 18/16 is not illegal as far as I can work out. Lawyers may disagree.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ages_of_consent_in_Oceania#Federal_laws

  3. On Trump’s speech.

    Rick WilsonVerified account@TheRickWilson
    50m50 minutes ago
    This man is utterly defeated.

    Rick WilsonVerified account@TheRickWilson
    50m50 minutes ago
    Totally.
    Defeated.

  4. briefly says:
    Wednesday, January 9, 2019 at 1:49 pm
    BQuoll says:
    Wednesday, January 9, 2019 at 1:15 pm
    ItzaDream @ #216 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 12:46 pm

    In a long article, John Menadue highlights the bleeding sores in our democracy.

    No he doesn’t. He whinges. There is one party that is open, democratically organised, hospitable to newcomers, that seeks to expand its membership and to actively reach and listen to the community. This is what needs to be done. It is hard work. It is thankless. This party is Labor. It is the only democratic organ in Australia that still aspires to be a mass party; that defines itself by its commitment to serving the ordinary people of this country.

    It is utterly counter-productive to whinge about the political process and then fail to take action. The whinging simply perpetuates and reinforces alienation.

    There are whingers a-plenty. They should pull their fingers out and go and meet voters, encourage them to become active; encourage them to join others and become participants. Unless they do this, the whingers will remain a part of the problem rather than a part of the solution.

    ____________________________________

    Totally agree with this Briefly.

    Like the Republicans in the USA the Liberal-National Coalition in Australia have been solely responsible for destroying public confidence in the role and integrity of Government, both in Opposition and in Government.

    The solution is not to host a talk-fest. The solution is for a party holding the reins of government to start to demonstrate to a rightly cynical community what good government looks like. All my observations lead me to the conclusion that this where Labor is heading. It has not raised expectations by promising things it is not sure it can deliver (and cannot know until it gets into government and sees the real detail) but has promised to do what it knows it can.

    It has also not bought into the projects of other parties, be they the Coalition, the Greens, or the Pauline Hanson whingers. It has focussed on what it wants to do – not what others demand for their own glorification or baser objectives.

  5. Thing is Mueller has been taking a helluva long time and frankly it is more likely than not that he has very little.

    Sure it can be argued he as waiting for a favourable congress but surely it is time to put up or shut up. I guess we will soon see.

    Whatever else you may say the idea that an inquiry of this kind can drag on for years during the reign of a POTUS, is a terrible thing for US democracy and the respect with which the POTUS has. Sure it was the same for Clinton and I thought that action a disgrace, and i feel the same way about this Mueller stuff. The POTUS is the guy with access to the hot button and it seems AOK for people to put the guy/girl under pressure such that it must affect judgement and sanity. This is a truly bad idea and is in fact more serious the more one believes Trump is deranged.

    There should have been a time limit of the inquiry and much clearer terms of reference. Moreover I think the whole concept of secret grand juries is utterly loathesome – for EVERYONE and really undermines fair justice.

  6. I just had a thought to do with the MDB mis-management and the role farmers have in preserving our environment. I want to be fair, so #NotAllFarmers, but it strikes me that land misuse can be characterised as mining the environment. Large scale mis-management should be no surprise where the majority of regional voters align ideologically and politically with miners. The land is there to be exploited.

  7. ‘Pointless’: Trump privately dismissed his own address strategy to news executives before his speech

    According to a New York Times report, President Donald Trump doesn’t support his own speech he made Tuesday evening.

    “Privately, Mr. Trump dismissed his own new strategy as pointless,” the Times reported. “In an off-the-record lunch with television anchors hours before the address, he made clear in blunt terms that he was not inclined to give the speech or go to Texas, but was talked into it by advisers, according to two people briefed on the discussion who asked not to be identified sharing details.”

    “It’s not going to change a damn thing, but I’m still doing it,” Trump said according to one person in the room.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/pointless-trump-privately-dismissed-address-strategy-news-executives-speech/

  8. Yabba,

    Smith’s technique is as tight as it gets. Just because he has exaggerated trigger movements does nothing to detract from the fact that at the point of release his head is still, he’s balanced and he’s in line with the stumps. He plays the ball late, plays it straight, can score off either foot and all around the wicket. if there’s one criticism, you could say his backlift comes from a bit wide, but that aside, he’s tight as f***.

  9. DaretoTread @ #255 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 2:02 pm

    Thing is Mueller has been taking a helluva long time and frankly it is more likely than not that he has very little.

    Sure it can be argued he as waiting for a favourable congress but surely it is time to put up or shut up. I guess we will soon see.

    Whatever else you may say the idea that an inquiry of this kind can drag on for years during the reign of a POTUS, is a terrible thing for US democracy and the respect with which the POTUS has. Sure it was the same for Clinton and I thought that action a disgrace, and i feel the same way about this Mueller stuff. The POTUS is the guy with access to the hot button and it seems AOK for people to put the guy/girl under pressure such that it must affect judgement and sanity. This is a truly bad idea and is in fact more serious the more one believes Trump is deranged.

    There should have been a time limit of the inquiry and much clearer terms of reference. Moreover I think the whole concept of secret grand juries is utterly loathesome – for EVERYONE and really undermines fair justice.

    I think the longer it goes the more Mueller has.

    This investigation will be the most famous takedown of THE greatest conman in history.

  10. DTT
    “There should have been a time limit of the inquiry and much clearer terms of reference. ”

    A set time limit only encourages those under investigation to drag their heels and run out the clock.

  11. Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Sen. Chuck Schumer extinguish Trump lies in ‘wall’ speech (full text)

    Schumer : My fellow Americans, there is no challenge so great that our nation cannot rise to meet it. We can re-open the government and continue to work through disagreements about policy. We can secure our border without an expensive, ineffective wall. And we can welcome legal immigrants and refugees without compromising safety and security. The symbol of America should be the Statue of Liberty, not a thirty-foot wall. So our suggestion is a simple one: Mr. President: re-open the government and we can work to resolve our differences over border security. But end this shutdown now.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/watch-speaker-nancy-pelosi-sen-chuck-schumer-extinguishes-trump-lies-wall-speech-full-text/

  12. Interesting how impatient people have become in the past few years.

    Processes, especially legal processes, take a long time to investigate, lock down and substantiate.

    It ain’t twitter speed, despite what we might like.

  13. I mentioned earlier today that Peter Dutton has questions to answer over the Saudi woman in Bangkok and what happened to her travel approvals? Reading up on progress over the Australian resident footballer detained in Bangkok it looks like Dutton has more questions to answer:
    “Al-Araibi was detained at Bangkok airport in November on an erroneously-issued Interpol red notice which raised questions about the internal processes of Interpol, the Australian Federal Police, and the home affairs department.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/09/australian-football-executives-meet-bahraini-royal-over-detained-footballer-hakeem-al-araibi

    No wonder they don’t want parliament to sit. Did money change hands over this?

  14. jenauthor says: Wednesday, January 9, 2019 at 2:14 pm

    Interesting how impatient people have become in the past few years.

    Processes, especially legal processes, take a long time to investigate, lock down and substantiate.

    It ain’t twitter speed, despite what we might like.

    *************************************************

    Not sure how this will come up on your monitor screen – but its the COMPLEXITY of the number of people involved and their links to each other ….. it is staggering :

    Apologies for not being able to show the diagram better – but hopefully you get the idea of what Robert Mueller has to investigate, substantiate and report accurately , honestly and fairly …. its NOT a 5 minute job …

  15. The only way Trump leaves the White House is if he fails re-election in 2020, or his second term is up. the latter is far more likely than the former.

    Mueller will not lay a glove on him, and he won’t be impeached. It’s all piss and wind around the edges. The way Trump’s opponents carry on about every little detail of the investigation is as rabid and unhinged as the Republicans were over Clinton, or the right was here over Gillard’s renovations. It’s embarrassing to read and hear promises every second day of “This is it! This is the indictment/ subpoena/ Louise Mensch tweet which proves it all!”

    Can’t believe people fall for it tbh.

  16. Jen and kakuru

    Justice delayed is justice denied.

    Either Mueller had stuff or he did not. Two years is a ridiculous time and there can be NO justification. frankly i think his approach of charging people such as Manafort for unrelated offences in an effort to get them to squeal is in fact legalised blackmail and is utterly immoral. You and i would squeal with horror is this were done to a friend of Obama or Clinton but you are all happy to see improper legal blackmail be used against political enemies.

    Mueller is no gentle honest broker but a politically active spy in spy agencies. stop treating him as if he were some well repected impartial judge reluctanlty brought in. His appalling role in the hatfield case and the distinct possibility he was somehow involved in the anthrax attacks makes him a very dubious choice – he was incompetent in the Hatfield case if not actually deliberately involved in misdirection towards an innocent person.

  17. Late Riser

    Land misuse can be characterised as mining the environment.

    Of course. Someone who simply wants to make a profit has no understanding or feeling for the land. Sustainability? Whaddya mean?

    It really is no different from mining and then walking away.

  18. Burgey
    says:
    Wednesday, January 9, 2019 at 2:19 pm
    The only way Trump leaves the White House is if he fails re-election in 2020, or his second term is up. the latter is far more likely than the former.
    Mueller will not lay a glove on him, and he won’t be impeached. It’s all piss and wind around the edges. The way Trump’s opponents carry on about every little detail of the investigation is as rabid and unhinged as the Republicans were over Clinton, or the right was here over Gillard’s renovations. It’s embarrassing to read and hear promises every second day of “This is it! This is the indictment/ subpoena/ Louise Mensch tweet which proves it all!”
    Can’t believe people fall for it tbh.
    _______________________________
    exactly spot on.

  19. DaretoTread:

    [‘… it is more likely than not that he has very little.’]

    Well, he has got Flynn, Cohen, Manafort, Papadopoulos, with Don Jnr and Jared in his sights. That’s not a bad record thus far. Please stop being a Russia apologist.

  20. DaretoTread @ #255 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 1:02 pm

    Thing is Mueller has been taking a helluva long time

    Awhile back someone put together a graphic comparing the duration of the Mueller investigation against Watergate, Lewinsky, and similar things.

    Suffice to say, no, it actually hasn’t been taking that long. Even now, it’s probably been going on for less time than the GOP Congress spent harping on about Hillary’s emails. Which was a process that truly did produce no results whatsoever.

    frankly it is more likely than not that he has very little

    The number of indictments, subpoenas, and guilty pleas already tallied says otherwise.

    And it goes without saying that if Trump wasn’t too cowardly to actually sit down with Mueller, Mueller would also have a couple dozen perjury indictments to hand out.

  21. DTT

    Thing is Mueller has been taking a helluva long time and frankly it is more likely than not that he has very little.

    _________________________________

    On the contrary. I believe Mueller has a huge amount already – certainly enough if you want to base action to impeach or even indict Trump. But such action would only intensify the existing divisions in the USA as Trump clings to whatever he can salvage of his position and his ego.

    Mueller’s endgame is to lay the groundwork for restoring confidence in the USA government and democratic system. This can only be done if the evidence of foreign interference and Trump’s personal involvement is so great that everyone but a small fraction of his current support base – and pretty much all of Republican congress – desert him. Mueller does not want him impeached and tried in the Senate. Mueller wants him to resign and to throw the book at the corrupt network around him so that the US political system can finally rebuild. He is a Republican – and he knows that he needs the republicans onside.

  22. and the distinct possibility he was somehow involved in the anthrax attacks

    _____________________________________

    I have no idea of what you are talking about, but by dog this looks like a classic smear.

  23. DTT
    “Justice delayed is justice denied.”

    Justice for whom?

    BTW, considering the number of scalps Mueller has already netted, the investigation is proceeding quite rapidly.

  24. Uh Oh. Another ALP branch stacker gets charged with fraud, perjury, perverting the course of justice etc etc.

    Justin Mammarella stood down as Labor’s candidate for Melton one month
    out from the November 24 election, citing family reasons.
    He is among four people charged by the Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission (IBAC) following an investigation into alleged electoral fraud.
    The investigation, which was given the name Operation Naxos, investigated allegations that the printing entitlements in the office of then-state MP Khalil Eideh were being misused.
    The alleged rort involved claiming entitlements in excess of what was actually being carried out, and then funnelling the difference into Labor Party memberships.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-09/former-labor-election-candidate-mammarella-charged-ibac/10701486

  25. lizzie @ #268 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 1:22 pm

    Late Riser

    Land misuse can be characterised as mining the environment.

    Of course. Someone who simply wants to make a profit has no understanding or feeling for the land. Sustainability? Whaddya mean?

    It really is no different from mining and then walking away.

    Yep. I was trying to understand how the National Party balances what at first blush are the opposing interests in mining and farming.

  26. TPOF

    Meuller was “involved” in that he was part of the investigation. As was Comey. The investigation was a fcuk up. For those into conspiracy the fcuk up may not have been an accident.:sinister music emoji:
    .
    .
    Comey and Mueller badly bungled the biggest case they ever handled. They botched the investigation of the 2001 anthrax letter attacks that took five lives and infected 17 other people, shut down the U.S. Capitol and Washington’s mail system, solidified the Bush administration’s antipathy for Iraq, and eventually, when the facts finally came out, made the FBI look feckless, incompetent, and easily manipulated by outside political pressure.
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2017/05/21/when_comey_and_mueller_bungled_the_anthrax_case_133953.html

  27. Kakuru says: Wednesday, January 9, 2019 at 2:31 pm

    DTT
    “Justice delayed is justice denied.”

    Justice for whom?

    BTW, considering the number of scalps Mueller has already netted, the investigation is proceeding quite rapidly.

    *******************************************************

    Mueller has worked to the classic tried and true *mobster takedown* – start with the lowest rungs on the ladder , get them to squeal on the person above them and their instructions and so on working up to the king pin at the top – be it Gotti – or maybe Trump – in what is likely to be the biggest political/espionage crime ever pulled in the digital era

  28. The Mueller hopefuls here and elsewhere sound an awful lot like PB did in the period 2010-2013, when everyone kept saying “The ALP will turn it around! People will see Abbott for the fraud he is! Don’t worry about the 417th poll showing people have gone right off us, we’ll come back! This latest move by Gillard is political genius! It’ll steady the ship for sure!” Sorry to say I was probably a part of that too.

    It’s Black Knight in the Holy Grail stuff. And just as delusional. He won’t lay a glove on him. Indict as many bit players as you like, especially re unrelated matters. It doesn’t get you anywhere near Trump. I hope I’m wrong, but it’s not going to happen. Putting up flow charts showing links between people seven orders of magnitude apart is ridiculous. When it gets that ephemeral, you could draw a link between a meeting with Russian oligarchs in 2016 with me taking a shit at the same time on the same day.

    If Mueller had anything, he’d have gone after Trump right away. He has nothing on him, or he’d have had him indicted. It’s not that hard to work out. He’s rolled over however many of DT’s cohorts who are co-operating with him. Do you think those ratbags would hold off giving Mueller anything on Trump if it could save their own skin? Of course not. They’re weasels who would sell their grandmother to avoid facing the consequences of their own actions.

    Mueller hasn’t indicted trump because he has nothing on him. I wish I was wrong, but it’s that simple.

  29. a r @ #273 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 1:22 pm

    DaretoTread @ #255 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 1:02 pm

    Thing is Mueller has been taking a helluva long time

    Awhile back someone put together a graphic comparing the duration of the Mueller investigation against Watergate, Lewinsky, and similar things.

    Suffice to say, no, it actually hasn’t been taking that long. Even now, it’s probably been going on for less time than the GOP Congress spent harping on about Hillary’s emails. Which was a process that truly did produce no results whatsoever.

    frankly it is more likely than not that he has very little

    The number of indictments, subpoenas, and guilty pleas already tallied says otherwise.

    And it goes without saying that if Trump wasn’t too cowardly to actually sit down with Mueller, Mueller would also have a couple dozen perjury indictments to hand out.

    They are all trivial and minor stuff. Not a serious breach anywhere. Manafort’s old fraud is worth pursuing but NOT as a part of legal blackmail. and as for Cohen and stormy – well reeeeelllly trivia on steroids

    Maybe this will change but so far it is all meh! what i will take seriously is EVIDENCE of electoral hacking – not Facebook stuff since if you go Russia or trump for that you will need to respond when Russia goes Mueller and the FBI for their role in HIS 2012 election. Sauce for goose etc, so if the ruskies were naughty and get jail time i assume you will be happy to extradite Mueller and the FBI to Russia for there KNOWN actions in 2012.

    It is the hypocrisy i cannot stand. I guess you ARE aware of the enormous role the USA plays in many, many overseas elections (even ours). If it were wrong for Russia to use facebook to influence the election is is just as wrong for the USA to use NCOs and religious movements for the same purpose.

    When the us Ambassador and the CIA agents here in Australia met and wrote reports on Bill Shorten were they trying to influence him. Yes of course they were but meeting someone and even liking them and supporting them is NOT collusion.

    it is the job of “intelligence’ officers of every country to meet and become friendly with key players in every country. They use whatever methods work – dinners, sports trips, ladies/lads of the night, business deals, introductions, social climbing, flattery, scholarships, tours, cultural visits etc. Competent intelligence services will forge links with politicians, both in government and opposition, emerging politicians, businesss leaders, journalists, media personalities, academics etc ie anyone deemed to have of likely to have significant influence in the country. They probably also cultivate cleaners, junior admin staff and drivers. wives, girlfriends and children of people will also be targeted. remember the Israeli operative who befriended Ruddock’s daughter and had unfettered access to his home and family.

  30. TPOF,

    Mueller doesn’t have some high minded “end game” to restore faith in govt and the American Way. That’s just something from a terrible late Cold War novel or movie.

    FMD, he’s a lawyer and prosecutor who’s been charged with leading an investigation. No more, no less.

  31. DaretoTread:

    [‘Mueller is no gentle honest broker but a politically active spy in spy agencies.’]

    Apart from Trump, his family, certain sections of the GOP, its supporter, Mueller’s highly respected at most levels of the US polity.

    I’m beginning to believe that you’ve taken leave of conspritorial senses. Have a lie dow, a bex.

  32. Because Mueller is thorough and ‘completes’ investigations in the fullest sense, all bar one of the people so far indicted have pleaded guilty.

    In other words, he made it impossible for them to wriggle out and they knew it so gave in to the inevitable.

    I suspect that is what he is building against Trump.

    Thorough, methodical … no ability to wriggle out.

  33. steve davis says:

    Trump doesnt even believe what is saying himself nowadays.

    Well who ever thought that we would live to see the day when politicians speak crap they do not actually believe in ?

  34. Mueller hasn’t indicted trump because he has nothing on him. I wish I was wrong, but it’s that simple.

    While it’s undoubtedly correct that many are well over-egging the omelette by getting over-excited about every new detail that comes to light, I think this line of yours goes too far the other way as well. It’s abundantly clear that any indictment or recommendation for impeachment of Trump, if it comes, will be the very last part of the process.

    I suspect that a report will end up lodged recommending impeachment, fairly late in this term. It’ll contain decent evidence but no “smoking gun”. It’s 50/50 on whether the House follows through on impeachment – probably depending a lot on what the polls are looking like at the time – and if they do vote to impeach, it will certainly die in the Senate.

    As for a Trump re-election, the mid-terms turnout and results says that it should, at the least, not be considered a cakewalk.

  35. Poroti

    What amazes me is that people like you and DTT reject the most compelling circumstantial evidence against Trump, his associates, Putin, Assad (and his war crimes), etc while putting about the most tenuous circumstantial argument against those you don’t like.

    As for the RCP article, it was interesting. It certainly confirmed the view I had already about C0mey and his poor judgement under pressure (reminds me of John Kerr). Beyond that, all it shows is what anyone who has had experience of police investigations know – they fuck up and they often double down on their ‘intuition’ until reality gets in the way.

    Good people learn from their mistakes. It seems that Mueller has. They also have blind spots – often family and some friends. That does not mean they should be tossed out purely on those connections. And the flow of guilty pleas that have come from the Mueller investigation in recent months certainly points toward the strength of his investigations.

    However, a strong pattern of close collaboration with miscreants and malefactors is another matter. Like circumstantial evidence is increasingly pointing to Trump.

  36. Burgey:

    [‘If Mueller had anything, he’d have gone after Trump right away. He has nothing on him, or he’d have had him indicted.’]

    D of J guidelines preclude a sitting president from being indicted, though it could be tested in the Supreme Court.

  37. Burgey says:
    Wednesday, January 9, 2019 at 2:40 pm
    TPOF,

    Mueller doesn’t have some high minded “end game” to restore faith in govt and the American Way. That’s just something from a terrible late Cold War novel or movie.

    FMD, he’s a lawyer and prosecutor who’s been charged with leading an investigation. No more, no less.

    __________________________________________

    I’ll agree to differ.

  38. There is one party that is open, democratically organised, hospitable to newcomers, that seeks to expand its membership and to actively reach and listen to the community. This is what needs to be done. It is hard work. It is thankless. This party is Labor. It is the only democratic organ in Australia that still aspires to be a mass party; that defines itself by its commitment to serving the ordinary people of this country.

    This makes me wonder – why doesn’t the Labor party advertise for people to join as members? This sort of environment – when they’re widely expected to take office soon from a Government that is seen in the electorate as terminally tin-eared – seems perfect for a message along the lines of “Come join us and make sure the concerns of your community are heard.”.

  39. Burgey says:
    Wednesday, January 9, 2019 at 2:19 pm
    The only way Trump leaves the White House is if he fails re-election in 2020, or his second term is up. the latter is far more likely than the former.

    Mueller will not lay a glove on him, and he won’t be impeached. It’s all piss and wind around the edges. The way Trump’s opponents carry on about every little detail of the investigation is as rabid and unhinged as the Republicans were over Clinton, or the right was here over Gillard’s renovations. It’s embarrassing to read and hear promises every second day of “This is it! This is the indictment/ subpoena/ Louise Mensch tweet which proves it all!”

    Can’t believe people fall for it tbh.

    ————————————————————————
    An opinion I’ve shared here a number of times over the last 2 years.

  40. Defeated Trump Admits His Immigration Address Was Pointless

    Trump admitted to news anchors that his Oval Office speech and his trip to the border were and are a pointless waste of time.

    Disconnected and disinterested Trump gave the speech from the Oval Office because the president thought that the idea was a waste of time, and he was right. The speech was a waste of time. Trump put zero effort into it, just as he does every single time he is forced to do something that he doesn’t want to do.

    Trump’s speech was horrible. Pelosi and Schumer took him to school with the Democratic response. Reality seems to be slowing sinking in. Trump isn’t going to win this shutdown. He isn’t going to get his wall. Democrats aren’t going to budge. Trump really doesn’t care about the border wall. It is a gimmick to keep his supporters engaged and the campaign donations rolling in.

    The president is trapped by his own campaign promise.

    Trump is defeated, and he doesn’t even want to try anymore.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2019/01/08/trump-defeated-wall.html

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