Poll positioning

Fraught preselections aplenty as the major parties get their houses in order ahead of a looming federal election.

Kicking off a federal election year with an overdue accumulation of preselection news, going back to late November:

• Liberal Party conservative Craig Kelly was last month saved from factional moderate Kent Johns’ preselection challenge in his southern Sydney seat of Hughes, which was widely reported as having decisive support in local party branches. This followed the state executive’s acquiescence to Scott Morrison’s demand that it rubber-stamp preselections for all sitting members of the House of Representatives, also confirming the positions of Jason Falinski in Mackellar, John Alexander in Bennelong and Lucy Wicks in Robertson. Kelly had threatened a week earlier to move to the cross bench if dumped, presumably with a view to contesting the seat as an independent. Malcolm Turnbull stirred the pot by calling on the executive to defy Morrison, noting there had been “such a long debate in the New South Wales Liberal Party about the importance of grass roots membership involvement”. This referred to preselection reforms that had given Johns the edge over Kelly, which had been championed by conservatives and resisted by moderates. Turnbull’s critics noted he raised no concerns when the executive of the Victorian branch guaranteed sitting members’ preselections shortly before he was dumped as Prime Minister.

• The intervention that saved Craig Kelly applied only to lower house members, and was thus of no use to another beleaguered conservative, Senator Jim Molan, who had been relegated a week earlier to the unwinnable fourth position on the Coalition’s ticket. Hollie Hughes and Andrew Bragg were chosen for the top two positions, with the third reserved to the Nationals (who have chosen Perin Davey, owner of a communications consultancy, to succeed retiring incumbent John “Wacka” Williams). Despite anger at the outcome from conservatives in the party and the media, Scott Morrison declined to intervene. Morrison told 2GB that conservatives themselves were to blame for Molan’s defeat in the preselection ballot, as there was “a whole bunch of people in the very conservative part of our party who didn’t show up”.

• Labor’s national executive has chosen Diane Beamer, a former state government minister who held the seats of Badgerys Creek and Mulgoa from 1995 to 2011, to replace Emma Husar in Lindsay. The move scotched Husar’s effort to recant her earlier decision to vacate the seat, after she became embroiled in accusations of bullying and sexual harassment in August. Husar is now suing Buzzfeed over its reporting of the allegations, and is reportedly considering running as an independent. The Liberals have preselected Melissa McIntosh, communications manager for the not-for-profit Wentworth Community Housing.

• The misadventures of Nationals MP Andrew Broad have created an opening in his seat of Mallee, which has been in National/Country Party hands since its creation in 1949, although the Liberals have been competitive when past vacancies have given them the opportunity to contest it. The present status on suggestions the seat will be contested for the Liberals by Peta Credlin, who was raised locally in Wycheproof, is that she is “being encouraged”. There appears to be a view in the Nationals that the position should go to a woman, with Rachel Baxendale of The Australian identifying three potential nominees – Anne Mansell, chief executive of Dried Fruits Australia; Caroline Welsh, chair of the Birchip Cropping Group; and Tanya Chapman, former chair of Citrus Australia – in addition to confirmed starter Anne Warner, a social worker.

• Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie yesterday scotched suggestions that she might run in Mallee. The view is that she is positioning herself to succeeding Cathy McGowan in Indi if she decides not to recontest, having recently relocated her electorate office from Bendigo to one of Indi’s main population centres, Wodonga. The Liberals last month preselected Steven Martin, a Wodonga-based engineer.

• Grant Schultz, Milton real estate agent and son of former Hume MP Alby Schultz, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Gilmore on New South Wales’ south coast, which the party holds on a delicate margin of 0.7%. The seat is to be vacated by Ann Sudmalis, whose preselection Schultz was preparing to challenge when she announced her retirement in September. It was reported in the South Coast Register that Joanna Gash, who held the seat from 1996 to 2013 and is now the mayor of Shoalhaven (UPDATE: Turns out Gash ceased to be so as of the 2016 election, and is now merely a councillor), declared herself “pissed off” at the local party’s endorsement of Schultz, which passed by forty votes to nine.

• Hawkesbury councillor Sarah Richards has been preselected as the Liberal candidate in Macquarie, where Labor’s Susan Templeman unseated Liberal member Louise Markus in 2016.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,175 comments on “Poll positioning”

  1. Just watched a bloody Clive Palmer political ad, only mentioned one party “If you want all Australians to receive the dole and freely available marijuana , vote for the Greens”.
    ____________________

    Ah, that sheds light on my otherwise inexplicable affection for the Greens….

  2. The liblings can sense a great Labor victory in the wind and are roused to wreck it if they can. They’re very vocal lately, aware that they face irrelevance once Labor – a reformist, strong, stable, united and effective Labor – come to power.

    The Liblings will team up with the remnant LNP to frustrate Labor if they can. This is very obvious. Hopefully voters will choose not to return any of their retiring Senators and to replace them with Labor candidates instead.

  3. dtt is the grouper these days – the spoiler hoping to frustrate Labor, the rat trying to engineer support for Labor’s mortal foes.

    The DLP saw their purpose as trying to prevent Labor from winning, from enacting its program. The Liblings and the Rats have the same goals. They are the Groupers of the current contest.

  4. Confessions @ #2495 Monday, January 7th, 2019 – 3:32 pm

    “Genuine concerns held by fair minded Australians about immigration levels, border protection or law and order should not be used as cover or be hijacked to push hateful and ugly racist agendas. As I did yesterday, I’ll always be prepared to call out extremism in all its forms.”

    Why did Morrison feel he needed to add this bit? His second attempt statement was just fine with the first part. No need to talk about immigration levels, as that wasn’t what the white supremacists yesterday were protesting about.

    Ratsak (I think) put it well a month or two ago. ScoMo doesn’t know when to shut up.

  5. Gillard, after the election she led Labor to, led the Party with greater number of candidates elected

    And narrowly achieved a 2PP majority

    Someone may be able to inform on the number of Labor candidates elected, the number of Liberal candidates elected, the number of National Party candidates elected and the others elected

    Simply the numbers Gillard was able to rely on on the floor in the Lower House exceeded the numbers Abbott could rely on (which included the National Party)

    This was because Labor held more seats than the Liberal Party did – so Labor were the largest seat holding Party in the Lower House

    The Coalition is a Coalition

    Gillard’s Coalition held more seats

  6. The original Groupers relied on the idea that Labor were answerable to a conspiracy, that they were illegitimate and untrustworthy. They invoked a mythical communist threat.

    Today’s Groupers do the same, though the names have been changed. Labor are supposedly in the hands of another conspiracy – the forces of neo-Liberalism. On these facile grounds, Labor are depicted as illegitimate and untrustworthy.

    The game is the same. The splitters run their conspiracy theories. They seek at all times and all ways to oppose Labor and defeat them.

    Of course, they cannot succeed in the end. The Liblings will share the fate of their antecedents, the DLP.

  7. briefly @ #2606 Monday, January 7th, 2019 – 10:06 pm

    dtt is the grouper these days – the spoiler hoping to frustrate Labor, the rat trying to engineer support for Labor’s mortal foes.

    The DLP saw their purpose as trying to prevent Labor from winning, from enacting its program. The Liblings and the Rats have the same goals. They are the Groupers of the current contest.

    Briefly

    You have lost the plot.

    You cannot pontificate about a brand new terminology known only to yourself and some PB lapdogs.
    The Groupers wanted to win but they had a semi conservative agenda. They ruled Qld for many years.

    The groupers were essentially a Catholic Christian democrat force who feared socialism and communism. however they also has something of a genuine social conscience albeit within a religious framework. They were by no means simply blockers. They had an agenda a defined methodology. The were as you should realise passionate trade unionists and indeed the core of their activities were as “groups” within the union movement.

    So a trade union based, mildly egalitarian, free market oriented, catholic and/or socially conservative and strongly anticommunist movement defined the term grouper. Frankly I think in this post Trump era that set of chracteristics defines many on here and I think the term “neo-grouper” does apply, although the absence of charismatic organisers such as Santa maria or Mannix, probably limits the value of the term

    Now to rabbit on like a loony calling me a grouper is utterly absurd. First I lack the charisma to be a grouper type leader and I can think of no charismatic organised leader whom I follow. So do not use silly terms in ignorance.

    What I assume in your confused mind is that some minors – especially the greens take votes from labor and in a sense split the ALP.

    There is however one very large difference which briefly and the other anti green nut cases refuse to acknowledge. Whereas the DLP (grouper political arm) deliberately defected to the Liberals and directed votes into the arms of the coalition, the Greens have always stayed on the left and continue to support labor ahead of the LNP. Therefore any analogy between the two is silly and shows ignorance of history and of current political dynamics.

    When I first started to watch electoral data my counting methods essentially added the DLP, Lib and national vote together and compared it to the ALP plus Democrats. In other words for all practical purposed DLP votes were coalition votes. Currently I add ALP plus green against Coalition. Bg difference.

  8. This headline got my interest.

    Dutton’s citizenship case on Prakash crumbles

    Unfortunately it’s not up on the website yet.

  9. dtt, everything you say is entirely irrelevant. The functional value of the DLP and the Greens is the same. They strive to defeat Labor. Moreover, their campaign techniques are the same. They depict Labor as untrustworthy and captive to conspiracy. The DLP were wrong. Their descendants are wrong too.

    No amount of rationalisation can conceal this. The original Groupers and the neo-Groupers serve to defeat Labor and advantage the LNP.

    You are a neo-Grouper with pronounced Trumpy and Putinocratic leanings.

  10. The functional value of the Greens` voters sending their preferences to the ALP (in the vast majority of cases where the Greens` vote gets distributed) is more ALP candidates elected.

    Australia is democracy where all political parties are subject to criticism and competition, i order to keep them in line with the political desires of the voters who vote for them, rejecting criticism and competition as invalid on the sole grounds they are criticism and competition is more of a one-party state attitude.

  11. The Libling voices – RD, N, n, dtt, g, p, ca, s, P….there must be others – are essentially neo-Grouper. They hope to split Labor. They subscribe to split politics in the US and the UK. The effect of their ‘work’ would be to keep the RW in power and to cannibalise the political organs of working people.

  12. Sally McManus
    ‏Verified account @sallymcmanus
    6h6 hours ago

    The Morrison Government wanted to fine workers $42 000 for attending a rally for better workers rights. Fraser Anning flew business class & was chauffeured there and back for a rally with 150 nazis

  13. Ttfab…the Gs adopt a Labor-positive profioe because that enables them to woo votes from their host. The moment they reveal,themselves as anti-Labor, their PV would drop by 80%. They are living off Labor. But they campaign to stop Labor and, necessarily, to help the LNP. These are the hard facts.

    We see utterly endless anti-Labor crusading by the neo-Groupers. They resort to every canard, every disingenuous trope. They are the agents of the LNP, though they would not wish it. They are the useful idiots of Australian politics.

  14. poroti @ #2547 Monday, January 7th, 2019 – 8:07 pm

    The Coalition barbarians have not killed of great science in Oz yet.

    Computers could soon run cold, no heat generated

    Common inefficiencies in transistor materials cause energy loss,” says the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), in a news article on its website this month. That “results in heat buildup and shorter battery life.”

    The lab is proposing, and says it has successfully demonstrated, a material called sodium bismuthide (Na3Bi) to be used for a new kind of transistor design, which it says can “carry a charge with nearly zero loss at room temperature.” No heat, in other words. Transistors perform switching and other tasks required in electronics.

    The new “exotic, ultrathin material” is a topological transistor. That means the material has unique tunable properties, the group, which includes scientists from Monash University in Australia, explains. It’s superconductor-like, they say, but unlike super-conductors, doesn’t need to be chilled. Superconductivity, found in some materials, is partly where electrical resistance becomes eliminated through extreme cooling.
    https://www.networkworld.com/article/3326831/data-center/computers-could-soon-run-cold-no-heat-generated.html

    The important thing about that is that batteries in, say, laptops or mobile phones would last an order of magnitude longer!

  15. It’s pretty clear that a bunch of posters on here want an ALP that is nothing more than a pale shadow of the LNP. They support the status quo and are probably invested in it. Makes me laugh to read the vehemence of their language in talking about the Tories, when they themselves are in fact Tories. They justify a vote for Labor on the basis of some virtue signalling identity issues, but really do not support any real change. they are invested in the establishment. Socialism scares them and they rationalize all sorts of neo liberal policy. Really what is the point. Just vote Liberal.

    Since it will be Liberal voting swinging voters who will grant Labor office later this year, this is descent into jeremy corbynesque/momentum like stupidity, If my party cannot remain pure “I’d rather be in permanent opposition” Madness. Luckily, Bill knows better 😉

  16. Anak Krakatau: Planet Labs imagery of the aftermath of the landslide

    Whilst early reports of the landslide were that it was probably submarine, the images are clear that a very large part of it (possibly the largest part) was subaerial (i.e. occurred above sea level). No remains of the landslide are seen – it left almost nothing behind as far as I can see – so the entire volume of 150-170 million cubic metres entered the water. It is unsurprising therefore that it generated a very significant tsunami in the local area.

    https://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2019/01/03/anak-krakatau-3/

  17. Fozzie Logic @ #2624 Monday, January 7th, 2019 – 11:21 pm

    It’s pretty clear that a bunch of posters on here want an ALP that is nothing more than a pale shadow of the LNP. They support the status quo and are probably invested in it. Makes me laugh to read the vehemence of their language in talking about the Tories, when they themselves are in fact Tories. They justify a vote for Labor on the basis of some virtue signalling identity issues, but really do not support any real change. they are invested in the establishment. Socialism scares them and they rationalize all sorts of neo liberal policy. Really what is the point. Just vote Liberal.

    Since it will be Liberal voting swinging voters who will grant Labor office later this year, this is descent into jeremy corbynesque/momentum like stupidity, If my party cannot remain pure “I’d rather be in permanent opposition” Madness. Luckily, Bill knows better 😉

    By the same token, Labor shouldn’t move to the right to attract disaffected Liberal voters. Luckily, since they’re leaving the Libs in droves, there’s no need for Labor to move anywhere. Let them come to Labor, not the other way around.

  18. Senator Anning is under fire after charging taxpayers more than $2800 for return flights to St Kilda, where some protesters were seen performing Nazi salutes at the rally organised by Mr Cottrell and Neil Erikson, far-right nationalists who have been previously convicted of inciting serious contempt for Muslims.

    But travel records show Saturday was not the first time Senator Anning has billed taxpayers to attend far-right events.

    In July last year, the senator joined Canadian far-right activist Lauren Southern at a Sydney rally to protest the treatment of South African farmers.

    On the fringe: Queensland senator Fraser Anning at the St Kilda rally on Saturday.
    On the fringe: Queensland senator Fraser Anning at the St Kilda rally on Saturday.CREDIT:AAP

    Independent Parliamentary Expenses Authority data show Senator Anning charged taxpayers $810 for two nights’ accommodation. The three-day trip included flights from Brisbane to Sydney return for nearly $1900, as well as Comcar costs. While in Sydney he took a day trip to Melbourne for unknown reasons at a further cost of $1437.

    Senator Anning confirmed he also billed taxpayers for travel to Melbourne in early October, where he appeared as keynote speaker at the Australian Liberty Alliance’s Rally for Free Speech. The cost of that trip is yet to be declared but will likely run into the thousands.

    A spokesman for the senator insisted the travel was essential to his constituency work in Queensland.

    Defending the trip to Melbourne last year, the spokesman said Senator Anning was lending support to the Australian Liberty Alliance, which he claimed had strong Queensland roots.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/fraser-anning-billed-taxpayers-thousands-to-attend-two-more-far-right-events-20190107-p50q21.html

  19. Dutton always covers his fabrications (aka lies) by “declining to release the proof”.

    Fiji did not allow dual citizenship until 2009. Even if Prakash had automatically acquired Fijian citizenship through his father when he was born in Melbourne in 1991, he would have lost it when he became Australian, Mr Vuniwaqa said.

    Under Australian citizenship law, Prakash would have become an Australian at birth, unless neither of his parents was a citizen nor a permanent resident, in which case he would have become Australian after 10 years.

    “He is not a dual citizen. He has not applied for it,” Mr Vuniwaqa said.

    Mr Dutton said last week the government had legal advice that Mr Prakash was a Fijian national, though he has declined to release it.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-s-citizenship-case-against-terrorist-prakash-shredded-20190107-p50q2e.html

  20. Dan Gulberry @ #2626 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 3:28 am

    Fozzie Logic @ #2624 Monday, January 7th, 2019 – 11:21 pm

    It’s pretty clear that a bunch of posters on here want an ALP that is nothing more than a pale shadow of the LNP. They support the status quo and are probably invested in it. Makes me laugh to read the vehemence of their language in talking about the Tories, when they themselves are in fact Tories. They justify a vote for Labor on the basis of some virtue signalling identity issues, but really do not support any real change. they are invested in the establishment. Socialism scares them and they rationalize all sorts of neo liberal policy. Really what is the point. Just vote Liberal.

    Since it will be Liberal voting swinging voters who will grant Labor office later this year, this is descent into jeremy corbynesque/momentum like stupidity, If my party cannot remain pure “I’d rather be in permanent opposition” Madness. Luckily, Bill knows better 😉

    By the same token, Labor shouldn’t move to the right to attract disaffected Liberal voters. Luckily, since they’re leaving the Libs in droves, there’s no need for Labor to move anywhere. Let them come to Labor, not the other way around.

    They are. And don’t forget ‘this will be the most Left Wing government in Australian history!’
    Scott Morrison
    🙂

  21. https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/nature-bites-back-algal-blooms-trigger-mass-fish-deaths-in-western-nsw-20190107-p50q0m.html

    When I was in far west NSW at the end of last year, the issue of water in the Darling and the Menindee Lakes was the number one issue. The Nationals won the state seat of Barwon 63-37 last time – I think they may get down to the low 50s on TPP.

    The Federal seat of Parkes which is essentially that state seat as well as adding the city of Dubbo was won by the Nationals 65-35 and I expect a similar fall in their TPP.

  22. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    David Wroe reports on the Uber Tuber’s latest legal embarrassment.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-s-citizenship-case-against-terrorist-prakash-shredded-20190107-p50q2e.html
    And he tells us why it was right to jump all over Fraser Anning.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fake-facts-and-normalising-extremists-why-it-was-right-to-jump-all-over-fraser-anning-20190107-p50q1q.html
    Freelance journalist Tarric Brooker tells us why the weekend’s racial protest made him proud to be Australian.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-the-weekend-s-racial-protest-made-me-proud-to-be-australian-20190107-p50pxy.html
    Despite many mainstream media reports, Scott Morrison did not condemn racism, nor did he condemn the racist rally, writes Noely Neate.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/pm-morrison-fails-to-condemn-racists-and-their-rally,12251
    And Sam maiden says that the Morrison government has warned it won’t be taking “ethics advice” from the Labor Party on accepting the vote of a Queensland senator who attended a protest marred by Nazi salutes and racist abuse.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/01/07/fraser-anning-government-vote/
    Stephen Bartholomeusz examines the consequences for Australia in the event of failure of US/China trade negotiations.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/damage-will-be-widespread-if-beijing-trade-talks-fail-20190107-p50pys.html
    The New York Times’ David Leonhardt lays out the case for the impeachment of Donald J. Trump. Ouch!
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/the-case-for-the-impeachment-of-donald-j-trump-20190107-p50pyu.html
    Experienced school teacher Dean Fitzgerald piles into the attack by the Australian Council of Deans of Education on the raising of intellectual standards for teacher training which, if successful, would betray the nation’s children, especially the most vulnerable, who need the cleverest people to teach and guide them.
    https://www.smh.com.au/education/betraying-our-children-academics-stifling-teaching-standards-20190107-p50pyc.html
    Dave Sharma in an op-ed writes that the Middle Eastern power order is at stake when US troops pull out of Syria.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/middle-eastern-power-order-at-stake-when-us-troops-pull-out-of-syria-20190107-p50q1e.html
    Labor’s Jim Chalmers explains how private-public sector co-operation can tackle major challenges if done properly.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/private-public-sector-co-operation-can-tackle-major-challenges-20181213-p50m4l.html
    WorkSafe has seized control of eight toxic dump sites in the Melbourne’s north and will now spearhead the clean-up operation amid fresh public safety concerns.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/worksafe-seizes-control-of-toxic-dump-sites-takes-over-clean-up-20190107-p50q1d.html
    Shane Wright says that tumbling house prices including a massive seven per cent fall in some Sydney suburbs, are set to play a huge role in this year’s election campaign.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/house-prices-will-tank-through-2019-as-debt-weighs-on-buyers-20190107-p50q1g.html
    The Australian reports that Labor plans to revamp job search criteria that could ditch a ­need for jobseekers on welfare to apply for 20 jobs each month.
    https://outline.com/zs8cWm
    Stephen Koukoulas explains how our falling dollar reflects global concern all is not well in the Australian economy.
    https://thekouk.com/item/661-falling-dollar-reflects-global-concern-all-is-not-well-in-the-australian-economy.html
    Given homes are used as security for many small business loans, tighter bank assessments have dried up SME credit, the ombudsman and senior bankers have warned.
    https://outline.com/8hNgeF
    Harriet Alexander writes about the fallout for honest cops who broke the unwritten code.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-cops-who-broke-the-unwritten-code-20181122-p50hmt.html
    Malcolm Knox looks at how India’s watershed win will reverberate around the entire subcontinent.
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/india-s-watershed-win-will-reverberate-around-the-entire-subcontinent-20190107-p50q1p.html
    Christopher Knaus reports on how the websites of a string of government agencies experienced embarrassing errors yesterday afternoon causing domain names to erroneously display the home pages of separate departments. This government has presided over an IT omnishambles.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/07/unintended-redirection-renders-australian-government-sites-unusable
    Karen Maley writes that whatever Commissioner Kenneth Hayne recommends in his final report, one thing is certain: the days when the corporate regulator grovelled before the country’s financial elite are mercifully over.
    https://outline.com/zLXvNt
    Child sex offenders and murderers were among the criminals who faced deportation from Australia when they were stripped of their visa last year. More than 800 criminals had their visas revoked in 2018 because of convictions that put them behind bars for 12 months or more, Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton and Immigration Minister David Coleman announced yesterday.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/01/07/criminals-lose-visas/
    Thousands of customers of failed online travel group Bestjet have been left exposed to potential losses worth millions of dollars because longstanding consumer protection laws and travel agent licensing requirements were scrapped by state governments in 2014 in favour of industry self-regulation in the name of cutting red tape.
    https://www.outline.com/5Hh938
    GetUp is asking the public to nominate which conservative Coalition MPs are “the worst of a bad bunch” to help it prioritise targets for the federal election.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/08/getups-hard-right-hitlist-for-federal-election-revealed
    Big banks are facing an annual tax hit of up to $300 million combined from a tussle with the ATO over its crackdown on the finance sector claiming credits for GST.
    https://outline.com/rnhX8x
    Is the Darling River dying before our very eyes? I wonder why.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/nature-bites-back-algal-blooms-trigger-mass-fish-deaths-in-western-nsw-20190107-p50q0m.html
    Here’s why doctors are backing pill testing at music festivals across Australia.
    https://theconversation.com/heres-why-doctors-are-backing-pill-testing-at-music-festivals-across-australia-109430
    It seems Fraser Anning has used taxpayer funds to fly to at least three far-right meetings across Australia. I reckon that qualifies him for nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”/
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fraser-anning-billed-taxpayers-thousands-to-attend-two-more-far-right-events-20190107-p50q21.html
    Although this teen would give it a run . . .
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/i-always-get-bail-illawarra-teen-gets-rude-awakening-20190107-p50q22.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope’s back from leave with this contribution.

    Cathy Wilcox visits St Kilda,

    Matt Golding’s collection.






    Jon Kudelka with David Leyonhjelm.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/1447a1a0bafb05b88683f7b984f3994a
    From the US.





  23. Fraser Anning simply represents the dark underbelly of Australia, and the sooner he is kicked out of parliament, the better. He will never be elected as an Independent Senator, there just aren’t enough votes out there to do it.

  24. The last paragraph in that Guardian article about GetUp! has been written with the author smirking I think –

    The conservative side of politics has attempted to counter GetUp campaigns with its own centre-right campaign organisations, the latest incarnation being Advance Australia. So far, an inability to agree on core issues to target has hampered all previous conservative campaigns to establish its own GetUp style campaign machine.

  25. Trump wants to interrupt prime time TV on Tuesday to argue for his border wall: report

    President Donald Trump plans to travel to the Southwest border Thursday.

    According to The New York Times, the president also wants to address the nation Tuesday—interrupting prime time programming—to directly make his case for a border wall ahead of his visit.

    Trump announced via Twitter that he would address the nation Tuesday at 9 p.m. ET — but it is unclear if TV networks will carry it live.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/trump-wants-interrupt-prime-time-tv-tuesday-argue-border-wall-report/

  26. Networks should demand to see Trump’s speech in advance — and refuse to air it if it’s filled with lies: CNN analyst

    CNN analyst Joe Lockhart, who previously served as White House press secretary under former President Bill Clinton, said on Monday that networks should refuse to air President Donald Trump’s planned prime-time address to the nation if it’s filled with lies.

    Given the way the Trump administration has been willing to push easily refutable lies in its efforts to sell Americans on the necessity of building the border wall, Lockhart said that networks owed it to their viewers to make sure that the president doesn’t peddle these kinds of lies in an address to the nation where no one would be able to correct him in real time.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/networks-demand-see-trumps-speech-advance-refuse-air-filled-lies-cnn-analyst/

  27. Fox News: Shutdown is ‘chaos Trump likes’ because it keeps Mueller out of the news

    Monday marked the 16th day of a government shutdown that has left 800,000 federal employees without pay.

    But a Fox News host suggested that President Donald Trump is hardly eager to resolve the crisis, noting that focusing attention on the wall is beneficial to the administration.

    “The shutdown is good for Trump. It keeps his base engaged. It keeps the news off of other things that are bad for him. When this is the story, Mueller is not the story,” Fox News politics editor Chris Stirewart said.

    The shutdown “is the kind of chaos Trump likes” because it helps him control the news cycle, Stirewart added.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/fox-news-shutdown-chaos-trump-likes-keeps-mueller-news/

  28. Yep. In a nutshell

    Counterchekist
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    Dear
    @NBC
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    ,
    @CBSTweet
    ,
    @CNN
    ;

    Please don’t give a primetime TV slot for what amounts to a political rally. Giving someone the special platform to promote an invented “national emergency” to score political points

  29. There’s a long debate over whether physical barriers on the border actually curb the illicit flow of people and drugs. The Border Patrol, which is backing Trump’s plan, says they’re a “vital tool.” Migration experts say they’re more symbolic than effective.

    But what is undeniable is that the 654 miles of walls and fences already on the US-Mexico border have made a mess out of the environment there. They’ve cut off, isolated, and reduced populations of some of the rarest and most amazing animals in North America, like the jaguar and ocelot (also known as the dwarf jaguar). They’ve led to the creation of miles of roads through pristine wilderness areas. They’ve even exacerbated flooding, becoming dams when rivers have overflowed.

    Now, DHS is eyeing unfenced areas in two Texas wildlife refuges that conservationists consider some of the most ecologically valuable areas on the border — home to armadillos and bobcats. If a wall were to slice through these ecosystems, it could cause irreversible damage to plants and animals already under serious threat.

    “We’ve been dealing with all these negative environmental impacts of fences on the border for more than a decade,” says Dan Millis of the Sierra Club Borderlands project. “And Trump’s proposal would make it worse.”

    The ecological disaster that is Trump’s border wall: a visual guide.

    https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/4/10/14471304/trump-border-wall-animals

  30. Basic facts about Trump’s life, which would have been thoroughly plumbed were he any other presidential candidate, are only starting to be investigated. A recent Patrick Radden Keefe profile of Mark Burnett reveals how the reality television producer turned Trump into a commanding business tycoon. “We walked through the offices and saw chipped furniture,” one Apprentice producer recalls in the piece. “We saw a crumbling empire at every turn. Our job was to make it seem otherwise.”

    The Apprentice depicted Trump not as a bankrupt crook but as a wealthy genius, for whose favor a cast of supplicants would compete. The show revolved around competing business ideas that Trump would oversee. The problem was that Trump — just as he does in the White House — made irrational and bizarre choices. He “was frequently unprepared for these sessions, with little grasp of who had performed well. Sometimes a candidate distinguished herself during the contest only to get fired, on a whim, by Trump.” Keefe reports that in such instances, the producers would edit the footage to make Trump’s foolish decisions appear wise. Tens of millions of Americans voted for a television character they took to be some reasonable approximation of a real person.

    http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/01/donald-trump-never-vetted-investigation-mueller.html

  31. The Australian reports that Labor plans to revamp job search criteria that could ditch a need for job seekers on welfare to apply for 20 jobs each month.

    To this can be added the added policy, announced last year by Shadow Minister, Ed Husic, that Labor will take back the Job Agency portfolio into government. Bye, bye Sarina Russo taxpayer ripoffs! Ditto the rest of them.

    I also imagine that, with this added announcement about the number of jobs applied for, Labor have looked at the successful area of job placement, the Disability Job Services providers, one of which my son attends.

    They don’t have the punitive attitude to their clients that the others do and, because there is no Work For the Dole component that they have to inflict on the job seeker, and a requirement for the unemployed person to only look for 10 jobs a month, which they help you with, it’s a lot less stressful. They also organise for a specific person in the business to be a roving job advocate, who goes around the local area liaising with employers and advocating on behalf of job seekers on their books. They have a pretty high success rate as a result.

  32. ‘The functional value of the Greens` voters sending their preferences to the ALP (in the vast majority of cases where the Greens` vote gets distributed) is more ALP candidates elected.’

    Sorry, what? So are you saying that if the Greens didn’t exist these votes would go to the Liberals?

    Greens votes flow to the ALP because the majority of Green voters would be Labor voters if the Greens didn’t exist.

    So the functional value of voting Green is to deprive the ALP of a first preference vote.

  33. With the small business council on board Labor feels brave enough to propose some welcome changes to the bullshit ‘mutual obligation’ for the unemployed.
    .
    .
    Labor plans overhaul of job welfare
    JANUARY 07, 2019
    Labor has revealed a blueprint for a “revamped version of mutual obligation” that does not punish jobseekers, ditches the need for unemployed people to apply for 20 jobs a month and ­re­designs…………………………………………………

    Council of Small Business of Australia chief executive Peter Strong told The Australian some businesses …………………………..“We are creating millionaires on the back of the long-term unemployed by paying providers to offer a failed service,” he said.

    “The people that win are the service providers, not the unemployed or the employers. It beggars belief that we have this very textbook-driven view of how these things should happen when that is wrong and it is proven to be wrong. The whole system needs to be turned on its head.”
    https://outline.com/zs8cWm

  34. Late Riser says:
    Monday, January 7, 2019 at 10:05 pm
    Shame, I think, works better. If you admire a group and identify with that group in some way, then you may wish to acknowledge some of the group’s past acts with pride but others with shame. Shame can motivate healing. I wasn’t living in Australia for the Apology to Australia’s Indigenous peoples. But I wonder where the shame went. I don’t feel it today. Has it been forgotten? Did it ever truly exist

    Sorry I was not about last night. I was wasting my time on house work. In the Qld heat it is easier to do it at night. I agree with you are in broad agreement.

  35. Thanks BK!
    Denis Fitzgerald tears into the Australian Council of Deans over their self- interested opposition to Labor’s proposal to raise the standards of teacher education.

    For the first time in Australian history a group of academics is vehemently arguing in support of the sustained lowering of intellectual standards for students in their faculties.

    This extraordinary circumstance is brought about by the Australian Council of Deans of Education arguing against recent proposals by the federal opposition that would seek to establish higher intellectual standards for education students commencing their undergraduate years of study.

    https://www.smh.com.au/education/betraying-our-children-academics-stifling-teaching-standards-20190107-p50pyc.html

    He is quite correct when he says there is academic research linking teacher’s knowledge of their subject ( i.e. Academic ability, or, if you like, how ‘smart’ they are) with teacher quality.
    He destroys Prof Aspland’s argument against raising the ATAR entry level, where she says, in part:

    “Our brief is always to go to politicians, have the discussion and try and reach a consensus because we all actually want the same outcome” she told the Herald yesterday.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/they-should-try-me-universities-reject-labor-call-on-raising-atar-20190106-p50pvk.html
    Well, no they don’t.
    Education deans in many Australian Unis are under instruction by Vice Chancellors to return student course money to the university. Education courses, and their students, are used as cash cows.

    Schools where the students do their Prac Teaching are now told they may not fail any student, even the most hopeless.
    Plibersek is right to try and raise the standards.
    The universities never will.

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