Poll positioning

Fraught preselections aplenty as the major parties get their houses in order ahead of a looming federal election.

Kicking off a federal election year with an overdue accumulation of preselection news, going back to late November:

• Liberal Party conservative Craig Kelly was last month saved from factional moderate Kent Johns’ preselection challenge in his southern Sydney seat of Hughes, which was widely reported as having decisive support in local party branches. This followed the state executive’s acquiescence to Scott Morrison’s demand that it rubber-stamp preselections for all sitting members of the House of Representatives, also confirming the positions of Jason Falinski in Mackellar, John Alexander in Bennelong and Lucy Wicks in Robertson. Kelly had threatened a week earlier to move to the cross bench if dumped, presumably with a view to contesting the seat as an independent. Malcolm Turnbull stirred the pot by calling on the executive to defy Morrison, noting there had been “such a long debate in the New South Wales Liberal Party about the importance of grass roots membership involvement”. This referred to preselection reforms that had given Johns the edge over Kelly, which had been championed by conservatives and resisted by moderates. Turnbull’s critics noted he raised no concerns when the executive of the Victorian branch guaranteed sitting members’ preselections shortly before he was dumped as Prime Minister.

• The intervention that saved Craig Kelly applied only to lower house members, and was thus of no use to another beleaguered conservative, Senator Jim Molan, who had been relegated a week earlier to the unwinnable fourth position on the Coalition’s ticket. Hollie Hughes and Andrew Bragg were chosen for the top two positions, with the third reserved to the Nationals (who have chosen Perin Davey, owner of a communications consultancy, to succeed retiring incumbent John “Wacka” Williams). Despite anger at the outcome from conservatives in the party and the media, Scott Morrison declined to intervene. Morrison told 2GB that conservatives themselves were to blame for Molan’s defeat in the preselection ballot, as there was “a whole bunch of people in the very conservative part of our party who didn’t show up”.

• Labor’s national executive has chosen Diane Beamer, a former state government minister who held the seats of Badgerys Creek and Mulgoa from 1995 to 2011, to replace Emma Husar in Lindsay. The move scotched Husar’s effort to recant her earlier decision to vacate the seat, after she became embroiled in accusations of bullying and sexual harassment in August. Husar is now suing Buzzfeed over its reporting of the allegations, and is reportedly considering running as an independent. The Liberals have preselected Melissa McIntosh, communications manager for the not-for-profit Wentworth Community Housing.

• The misadventures of Nationals MP Andrew Broad have created an opening in his seat of Mallee, which has been in National/Country Party hands since its creation in 1949, although the Liberals have been competitive when past vacancies have given them the opportunity to contest it. The present status on suggestions the seat will be contested for the Liberals by Peta Credlin, who was raised locally in Wycheproof, is that she is “being encouraged”. There appears to be a view in the Nationals that the position should go to a woman, with Rachel Baxendale of The Australian identifying three potential nominees – Anne Mansell, chief executive of Dried Fruits Australia; Caroline Welsh, chair of the Birchip Cropping Group; and Tanya Chapman, former chair of Citrus Australia – in addition to confirmed starter Anne Warner, a social worker.

• Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie yesterday scotched suggestions that she might run in Mallee. The view is that she is positioning herself to succeeding Cathy McGowan in Indi if she decides not to recontest, having recently relocated her electorate office from Bendigo to one of Indi’s main population centres, Wodonga. The Liberals last month preselected Steven Martin, a Wodonga-based engineer.

• Grant Schultz, Milton real estate agent and son of former Hume MP Alby Schultz, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Gilmore on New South Wales’ south coast, which the party holds on a delicate margin of 0.7%. The seat is to be vacated by Ann Sudmalis, whose preselection Schultz was preparing to challenge when she announced her retirement in September. It was reported in the South Coast Register that Joanna Gash, who held the seat from 1996 to 2013 and is now the mayor of Shoalhaven (UPDATE: Turns out Gash ceased to be so as of the 2016 election, and is now merely a councillor), declared herself “pissed off” at the local party’s endorsement of Schultz, which passed by forty votes to nine.

• Hawkesbury councillor Sarah Richards has been preselected as the Liberal candidate in Macquarie, where Labor’s Susan Templeman unseated Liberal member Louise Markus in 2016.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,175 comments on “Poll positioning”

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  1. C@tmomma @ #2492 Monday, January 7th, 2019 – 5:29 pm

    Oh, dtt, thou art stupid. Let me count the ways.

    Sorry cat but that is a very naive thing to think.

    Or I know what I am talking about and you don’t but you are so full of yourself, and, like Trump, don’t want to be thought foolish, that you are singularly incapable of climbing down from your original inane assertion and admitting you may be wrong.

    if you or any candidate signs a pledge then it is utterly incompetent not to carefully consider all donations. Someone should have been delegated to check that all donations conformed and it indicated a level of incompetence in the campaign that does not bode well for the future. if it was not incompetence then it was hypocrisy. They are your only two choices.

    No, there’s actually a third option. The one that the environmental groups in the US who started the No Fossil Fuel Donations Pledge acknowledged, that is that it should apply to individuals who hold down positions in the fossil fuel industry as well. Some thing that, no doubt, the campaign will adhere to observing next time.

    However, as you seem to think that a first time campaign for the Senate who have signed a pledge should have been all seeing and all knowing about all the ramifications of that pledge when even the guy who started it agreed that it was opaque about individuals, well then, that’s all it can be then, huh?

    Stop fudging – you like the pretty boy and you are a centrist yourself so you support him. Fine but do not try to argue that an orange is really an apple or that the parrot is alive.

    And there is where you plumb the depths of banality. To suggest that I support Beto O’Rourke, a happily married man, just because he is handsome, only serves to project in neon lights how shallow and banal YOUR thought processes are.

    You are a shallow thinker, dtt, who believes that great screeds of prolix prose somehow suggests that you are a deep thinker. You are as deep as a puddle of water in the midday sun in Charters Towers in summer.

    Third option, schmerde option. Hypocrisy thy name is cat. Has O’rouke returned the donations form fossil fuel employees? Really if the industry pulled such a scam on O’Rouke then he AND his team are absolute patsies and must be thick and incompetent. if they cannot scan for obvious and deliberate efforts of the fossil fuel industry to buy influence, how in hell can they run the country.

  3. “The base” started crumbling a bit when he made a mostly-kinda-clear statement condemning racism, so he had to come back and muddy the waters?

    Yes, most likely signalling to the 2GB crowd.

  7. “Ha Ha, never heard of her. Is she your secret soul mate?”

    Well Peg, as Cleaver Green would say, right wing chicks are just hotter

  8. C @t
    I posted a copy of the pledge for you. As you would have noticed it is in plain English that taking money from them is a no no. Someone needs a new job if they ‘misunderstood’ it.

  9. DDT
    I see your trying to work out how i know you have a flat in Russia, how I have inside knowledge of Liberal trolling arrangements.

    The guess I was once a young Liberal was good, contacts perhaps.
    That you have to be a member of the CIA to know what is going on, bad guess.
    While you try and work it out, tell us about your flat.
    Remember what I said to Nath, take care to make sure you get paid.

    Also you need to take a little more care with persona; Trump good; Putten really really good is a bit far.; even for a geriatric Trotsky.

    Fred

    Still waiting for a description of your CIA dorm at Foggy Bottom. Is it a frat house or more formal? I do hope they pay you well.

  11. Found a flyer from my local State Labor candidate, Andrew Zbik, in my letter box, so he’s up and running early. He doesn’t have much chance in this blue ribbon Liberal electorate but good on him.

  12. @DDT:

    “Andrew
    No I am NOT but I am pointing out to the Biden fans that there might be a nasty attack on him. Now yes you might well argue that there will be an attack on everyone which is true. Perhaps it will come to nothing but only a bloody idiot would ignore it – sorta like the Nats ignoring Barnaby or Broad.

    I might also call you out because lawyer you may be but you will note that i never, never never used the p word and would never, ever, ever have done so. You should bloody well apologise for even suggesting it and indeed I think YOU have breached William’s guidelines.

    Talk about someone making wild accusations.

    Shame on you Andrew. You should know better.”

    Huh? What are you talking about.

    Just to be clear, I was comparing you to BBish – short for Bronwyn Bishop. In jest. …

    Who did you think I was talking about?

  14. Bah

    As soon as people return to work from holiday silly season, Sydney lights up with interviews.

    Now I have to traverse this week all over CBD for interviews.

    Anything exciting in politics?

  15. Never heard of Cleaver Greene…googled your “right wing chicks are just hotter”

    to get some context for your comment and got:

    https://www.quotes.net/mquote/835391

    Do you want the truth? Right-wing chicks are hot. Much hotter than left-wing chicks. Do you know why that is? Because right-wing chicks are aggressively carnivorous, self-reliant, Ayn Rand acolytes who understand the value of the moment. They get that sex is something in and of itself, beholden to nothing and no one and as a consequence of that understanding, they’re less inhibited and therefore hornier. Left-wing chicks on the other hand, they’re vegans who want a holistic experience. They’re all about context. They talk about an orgasm like it’s a pet spaniel. So consequently the moment’s ruined. And this Mr Clown is the real reason why the left has carked it.

    What a classy person you are.

  16. Coup in Gabon: The Bongos have ruled ruled for almost 50 years. So there ain’t going to be any tears flowing for over throw of a democratic government. What might be an issue is the Bongos were Muslims in a predominately Christian and have been favouring the minority for 50 years. So there might be ethnic violence which breaks out.

  22. Confessions @ #2386 Monday, January 7th, 2019 – 1:04 pm

    Julia Gillard was unmarried, and she was elected PM..

    Actually she wasn’t. The ALP chose her to succeed Rudd without an election, and it was Bandt, Wilkie, Wndsor and Oakeshott that made her PM after the election produced a tied result between the ALP and the Coalition.

    In both cases she was chosen by “insiders” and not “elected” by voters.

    And to make clear, I am not suggesting that either of those choices was a bad one. History will be a lot kinder to her term as PM than the actual time was.

  23. “Do you want the truth? Right-wing chicks are hot. Much hotter than left-wing chicks. Do you know why that is? Because right-wing chicks are aggressively carnivorous, self-reliant, Ayn Rand acolytes who understand the value of the moment. They get that sex is something in and of itself, beholden to nothing and no one and as a consequence of that understanding, they’re less inhibited and therefore hornier. Left-wing chicks on the other hand, they’re vegans who want a holistic experience. They’re all about context. They talk about an orgasm like it’s a pet spaniel. So consequently the moment’s ruined. And this Mr Clown is the real reason why the left has carked it.”

    To which Mr Clown responded: “my mother was a communist”, inviting this Cleaver reposte: “So, you were adopted”. …

    Classy indeed.

  26. Just to remind everyone, here was DTT’s original insinuation about Joe Biden ….

    DaretoTread @ #2288 Monday, January 7th, 2019 – 2:01 pm

    I am not sure how effective they will be but the guns are out for Joe and some of the photo images make Trump look like a perfect gentleman. As one might expect in the US battle ground the image that first caught my attention was in one of Hillary’s books. The “Uncle Joe” meme and his “attentions” to 13 year old girls will get a heck of a run, should he emerge as a likely challenger to Trump.

    Truly disgraceful.

  28. “Do you want the truth? Right-wing chicks are hot. Much hotter than left-wing chicks. Do you know why that is? Because right-wing chicks are aggressively carnivorous, self-reliant, Ayn Rand acolytes who understand the value of the moment. They get that sex is something in and of itself, beholden to nothing and no one and as a consequence of that understanding, they’re less inhibited and therefore hornier. Left-wing chicks on the other hand, they’re vegans who want a holistic experience. They’re all about context. They talk about an orgasm like it’s a pet spaniel. So consequently the moment’s ruined. And this Mr Clown is the real reason why the left has carked it.”

    To which Mr Clown responded: “my mother was a communist”, inviting this Cleaver reposte: “So, you were adopted”. …

    Classy indeed.

  29. Andrew_Earlwood @ #2512 Monday, January 7th, 2019 – 6:06 pm

    @DDT:

    “Andrew
    No I am NOT but I am pointing out to the Biden fans that there might be a nasty attack on him. Now yes you might well argue that there will be an attack on everyone which is true. Perhaps it will come to nothing but only a bloody idiot would ignore it – sorta like the Nats ignoring Barnaby or Broad.

    I might also call you out because lawyer you may be but you will note that i never, never never used the p word and would never, ever, ever have done so. You should bloody well apologise for even suggesting it and indeed I think YOU have breached William’s guidelines.

    Talk about someone making wild accusations.

    Shame on you Andrew. You should know better.”

    Huh? What are you talking about.

    Just to be clear, I was comparing you to BBish – short for Bronwyn Bishop. In jest. …

    Who did you think I was talking about?

    Andrew
    You implied that i was alleging Biden behaved wrongly ie was a p

    For that you should apologise and I regard you comment as libelous had we not all been anonymous. You should know better.

    My hair is nothing like BBish and I never catch helicopters. There are lots more realistic and offensive comparisons you could have made.

  30. I didn’t imply any such thing DTT. Other than my little Bludger After Dark joke I hadn’t gone within a mile of your musing about Bidon.

  31. “Senator David L is quitting the senate to run in the NSW state election.”

    His Senate term expires 30/6/2019. He will have to resign a few months early to contest the NSW election.

  32. Dan Gulberry @ #2522 Monday, January 7th, 2019 – 3:20 pm

    Confessions @ #2386 Monday, January 7th, 2019 – 1:04 pm

    Julia Gillard was unmarried, and she was elected PM..

    Actually she wasn’t. The ALP chose her to succeed Rudd without an election, and it was Bandt, Wilkie, Wndsor and Oakeshott that made her PM after the election produced a tied result between the ALP and the Coalition.

    In both cases she was chosen by “insiders” and not “elected” by voters.

    And to make clear, I am not suggesting that either of those choices was a bad one. History will be a lot kinder to her term as PM than the actual time was.

    So Gillard was elected as PM the same way every PM has been elected in our history!!

    Same for Morrison. 🙂

  33. Bert @ #2522 Monday, January 7th, 2019 – 7:20 pm

    AR, thanks and bugga. Won’t work.

    It works on my Samsung phone and Tablet with Firefox.

    It will (probably) work with Firefox.

    The display is just the same on your screen. The time will possibly be an hour out but a lot of the posts belong in the last/next century so who cares.

    Give it a try.
    I installed the above on my daughters Samsung tablet yesterday (Firefox) and it works as advertised above.

    Sadly the Chrome for tablets and phones will not accept addons. Bugga indeed.

  36. @Barney in Go Dau

    However Gillard went to an election and managed to form a minority government after it. Scott Morrison on the other hand will probably led the Coalition to it’s worst ever defeat, exceeding that of 1983. Labor would need to win 93 seats to exceed that went, that is quite achievable.

    I have sensed that the deposing of Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader has resulted in many people becoming convinced “enough is enough, these reactionaries need to be stopped at all costs”. The Coalition may hold up in Central and North Queensland. However they will lose considerably safer seats in the Eastern Suburbs of Melbourne and the North Shore of Sydney. These voters have the modern day equivalents of pitchforks, nooses, tar and feather for politicians such as Tony Abbott, Craig Kelly, Peter Dutton and Barnaby Joyce.

  38. frednk @ #2509 Monday, January 7th, 2019 – 5:58 pm

    I see your trying to work out how i know you have a flat in Russia, how I have inside knowledge of Liberal trolling arrangements.

    The guess I was once a young Liberal was good, contacts perhaps.
    That you have to be a member of the CIA to know what is going on, bad guess.
    While you try and work it out, tell us about your flat.
    Remember what I said to Nath, take care to make sure you get paid.

    Also you need to take a little more care with persona; Trump good; Putten really really good is a bit far.; even for a geriatric Trotsky.

    Fred

    Still waiting for a description of your CIA dorm at Foggy Bottom. Is it a frat house or more formal? I do hope they pay you well.

    OK Fred

    This post was a bit confusing
    1. You were a young Liberal – why am i surprised
    2. Since you are so sure I live in Russia it is an obvious assumption that you live in the USA at Foggy Bottom. I assume you get my point.
    3. You clearly do not know your lefty politics. Troskyites hate Putin and old Trots became Neocons. Now I might be russophile but to call me a Trot is more offensive than being called a real estate agent. Mon dieu
    4. Likewise I hope the CIA pays you well

  39. I have sensed that the deposing of Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader has resulted in many people becoming convinced “enough is enough, these reactionaries need to be stopped at all costs”.

    I said in the days following the leadership change that people I interacted with all said that was the last straw. The rejection of JBishop was the icing on the cake of frustration for them as well.

    The local paper ran front page editorials attacking our local Liberal member for having voted for the leadership spill, and then not voting for Turnbull. He took weeks to front up for an interview to explain himself, and then only under pressure because of the media. It has all been downhill from there as it’s become abundantly clear Morrison is many magnitudes more hopeless than Turnbull as PM!

  40. Andrew
    Apologies if i have misrepresented you.

    please refer to comment 2490 – just possibly you were quoting someone else but you will appreciate that I had every right to assume you said it. – There was no other attributions but i did see some quote marks.

    i

  41. In late February I am moving to the heart of Barnaby Joyce’s electorate of New England in the town of Armidale to do postgraduate study at UNE. Hopefully I get a chance to help defeating him in New England.

  45. Confessions @ #2535 Monday, January 7th, 2019 – 4:44 pm

    Dan G:

    The Gillard Labor govt was a legitimately elected govt, and Gillard was a legitimately elected PM.

    Not by the people.

    It could quite easily be argued that the constituents of Bandt and Wilkie’s seats were happy with them giving confidence to the ALP, the same can’t be said of the constituents in Windsor or Oakeshott’s electorates.

    If they’d given confidence to the other side instead of the ALP, the same thing would’ve applied.

  47. The Coalition barbarians have not killed of great science in Oz yet.

    Computers could soon run cold, no heat generated

    Common inefficiencies in transistor materials cause energy loss,” says the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), in a news article on its website this month. That “results in heat buildup and shorter battery life.”

    The lab is proposing, and says it has successfully demonstrated, a material called sodium bismuthide (Na3Bi) to be used for a new kind of transistor design, which it says can “carry a charge with nearly zero loss at room temperature.” No heat, in other words. Transistors perform switching and other tasks required in electronics.

    The new “exotic, ultrathin material” is a topological transistor. That means the material has unique tunable properties, the group, which includes scientists from Monash University in Australia, explains. It’s superconductor-like, they say, but unlike super-conductors, doesn’t need to be chilled. Superconductivity, found in some materials, is partly where electrical resistance becomes eliminated through extreme cooling.
    https://www.networkworld.com/article/3326831/data-center/computers-could-soon-run-cold-no-heat-generated.html

  48. Dan Gulberry @ #2544 Monday, January 7th, 2019 – 4:03 pm

    Confessions @ #2535 Monday, January 7th, 2019 – 4:44 pm

    Dan G:

    The Gillard Labor govt was a legitimately elected govt, and Gillard was a legitimately elected PM.

    Not by the people.

    It could quite easily be argued that the constituents of Bandt and Wilkie’s seats were happy with them giving confidence to the ALP, the same can’t be said of the constituents in Windsor or Oakeshott’s electorates.

    If they’d given confidence to the other side instead of the ALP, the same thing would’ve applied.

    There is no such measure!

    Having the confidence of the majority on the floor of the House makes you PM and the right to form the Government.

    Nothing about the people, we did our bit when we voted for our local Member. 🙂

  49. In Europe Prime Ministers are elected by a ballot of members of the lower houses or only house of their parliament, it is called Investiture . If such a system existed in Australia, I doubt Scott Morrison would win enough votes order to become Prime Minister.

  50. A ;pretty damning fact………

    Sally McManus
    ✔
    @sallymcmanus
    The Morrison Government wanted to fine workers $42 000 for attending a rally for better workers rights. Fraser Anning flew business class & was chauffeured there and back for a rally with 150 nazis

    1,032
    3:14 PM – Jan 7, 2019

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