Poll positioning

Fraught preselections aplenty as the major parties get their houses in order ahead of a looming federal election.

Kicking off a federal election year with an overdue accumulation of preselection news, going back to late November:

• Liberal Party conservative Craig Kelly was last month saved from factional moderate Kent Johns’ preselection challenge in his southern Sydney seat of Hughes, which was widely reported as having decisive support in local party branches. This followed the state executive’s acquiescence to Scott Morrison’s demand that it rubber-stamp preselections for all sitting members of the House of Representatives, also confirming the positions of Jason Falinski in Mackellar, John Alexander in Bennelong and Lucy Wicks in Robertson. Kelly had threatened a week earlier to move to the cross bench if dumped, presumably with a view to contesting the seat as an independent. Malcolm Turnbull stirred the pot by calling on the executive to defy Morrison, noting there had been “such a long debate in the New South Wales Liberal Party about the importance of grass roots membership involvement”. This referred to preselection reforms that had given Johns the edge over Kelly, which had been championed by conservatives and resisted by moderates. Turnbull’s critics noted he raised no concerns when the executive of the Victorian branch guaranteed sitting members’ preselections shortly before he was dumped as Prime Minister.

• The intervention that saved Craig Kelly applied only to lower house members, and was thus of no use to another beleaguered conservative, Senator Jim Molan, who had been relegated a week earlier to the unwinnable fourth position on the Coalition’s ticket. Hollie Hughes and Andrew Bragg were chosen for the top two positions, with the third reserved to the Nationals (who have chosen Perin Davey, owner of a communications consultancy, to succeed retiring incumbent John “Wacka” Williams). Despite anger at the outcome from conservatives in the party and the media, Scott Morrison declined to intervene. Morrison told 2GB that conservatives themselves were to blame for Molan’s defeat in the preselection ballot, as there was “a whole bunch of people in the very conservative part of our party who didn’t show up”.

• Labor’s national executive has chosen Diane Beamer, a former state government minister who held the seats of Badgerys Creek and Mulgoa from 1995 to 2011, to replace Emma Husar in Lindsay. The move scotched Husar’s effort to recant her earlier decision to vacate the seat, after she became embroiled in accusations of bullying and sexual harassment in August. Husar is now suing Buzzfeed over its reporting of the allegations, and is reportedly considering running as an independent. The Liberals have preselected Melissa McIntosh, communications manager for the not-for-profit Wentworth Community Housing.

• The misadventures of Nationals MP Andrew Broad have created an opening in his seat of Mallee, which has been in National/Country Party hands since its creation in 1949, although the Liberals have been competitive when past vacancies have given them the opportunity to contest it. The present status on suggestions the seat will be contested for the Liberals by Peta Credlin, who was raised locally in Wycheproof, is that she is “being encouraged”. There appears to be a view in the Nationals that the position should go to a woman, with Rachel Baxendale of The Australian identifying three potential nominees – Anne Mansell, chief executive of Dried Fruits Australia; Caroline Welsh, chair of the Birchip Cropping Group; and Tanya Chapman, former chair of Citrus Australia – in addition to confirmed starter Anne Warner, a social worker.

• Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie yesterday scotched suggestions that she might run in Mallee. The view is that she is positioning herself to succeeding Cathy McGowan in Indi if she decides not to recontest, having recently relocated her electorate office from Bendigo to one of Indi’s main population centres, Wodonga. The Liberals last month preselected Steven Martin, a Wodonga-based engineer.

• Grant Schultz, Milton real estate agent and son of former Hume MP Alby Schultz, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Gilmore on New South Wales’ south coast, which the party holds on a delicate margin of 0.7%. The seat is to be vacated by Ann Sudmalis, whose preselection Schultz was preparing to challenge when she announced her retirement in September. It was reported in the South Coast Register that Joanna Gash, who held the seat from 1996 to 2013 and is now the mayor of Shoalhaven (UPDATE: Turns out Gash ceased to be so as of the 2016 election, and is now merely a councillor), declared herself “pissed off” at the local party’s endorsement of Schultz, which passed by forty votes to nine.

• Hawkesbury councillor Sarah Richards has been preselected as the Liberal candidate in Macquarie, where Labor’s Susan Templeman unseated Liberal member Louise Markus in 2016.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,175 comments on “Poll positioning”

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  3. Impressive that China landed the first ever probe on the Moon’s far side. But I was amused at this statement in “The Global Times” run by the Chinese Communist Party –

    And it channeled both President John F. Kennedy and Neil Armstrong in a triumphant editorial.

    “Unlike mankind’s mania in the past, the Chinese people ultimately harbor the dream of shared human destiny and practices open cooperation,” it said. “We choose to go to the back of the moon not because of the unique glory it brings, but because this difficult step of destiny is also a forward step for human civilization!” – Washington Post

  4. On Neil Prakesh, I am wondering if we have a lawyer in the house, as opposed to legal advice from Dutton?

    For the Fijians, they seem to be saying, “we will decide who comes here, and the manner in which they become citizens”. Fair enough, if somebody was not their citizen before, surely it is up to them not us to decide whether they become a Fijian citizen now.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-03/fiji-pm-says-neil-prakash-not-welcome/10683038

    As for Prakesh, if he was not a Fijian citizen, then surely he cannot have lot his Australian citizenship, if that could only have happened assuming he was a dual citizen. So wasn’t Dutton’s action invalid?

    Am I missing something? Real legal advice welcome.

  6. PeeBee

    I knew someone would mention Cos … a bit overrated but OK in a Ceasar.

    Lacks the cool crispness and meatiness of an Iceberg but ok. 🙂

  7. While on the subject of cuisine, I remember a recipe that I saw for Duck Stromboli back in the 70s, when such things were passed around on pieces of paper rather than the far-in-the-future internet. It went something like:

    Duck Stromboli
    One whole duck, hollowed out, legs tied
    To the void add four red chillies, one pound of popcorn and a half-cup of cooking oil
    Cook in a hot oven at 250C (can’t remember the fahrenheit equivalent)
    Dish is cooked when the popcorn blows the arse out of the duck.

    I never tried it myself.

  8. Using Dutton’s ‘logic’ I, if I became a terrorist, could be deported back to Ireland, because that’s where our family came from originally, oh about 8 generations ago. 😆

  11. peebee

    I think Cos is fine, except when you need to throw up, after inadvertently eating it.

    On the other hand, it’s a pretentious lettuce; tends to harbour dirt, and takes a bit of meddling to make it onto the dinner plate. I get a bit bored with washing the individual leaves.

    But that’s just me.

    As far as I can tell, lots of people like Cos, just because.

  12. Sydney wasn’t planned. The English dumped a couple of boatloads of convicts on the shores of Botany Bay. Unfortunately that turned out to be a swamp so they decamped to the nearest solid ground. They pushed the original inhabitants out of the way, threw up a shantytown. Then came the Rum Corps, some dodgy characters importing merino sheep, others discovering gold…and things have sort of continued in the same vein for a couple of centuries. And so we have Gotham on the Pacific built around bullock tracks. We built this city on dodgy deals and bullshit.

  14. Socrates @ #503 Thursday, January 3rd, 2019 – 6:47 pm

    On Neil Prakesh, I am wondering if we have a lawyer in the house, as opposed to legal advice from Dutton?

    For the Fijians, they seem to be saying, “we will decide who comes here, and the manner in which they become citizens”. Fair enough, if somebody was not their citizen before, surely it is up to them not us to decide whether they become a Fijian citizen now.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-03/fiji-pm-says-neil-prakash-not-welcome/10683038

    As for Prakesh, if he was not a Fijian citizen, then surely he cannot have lot his Australian citizenship, if that could only have happened assuming he was a dual citizen. So wasn’t Dutton’s action invalid?

    Am I missing something? Real legal advice welcome.

    Yep, that’s pretty much as I see it. (non legal)

    It appears that he is only an Australian citizen, so he can therefore not lose his Australian citizenship. 🙂

  15. Cat

    Yes that is pretty much how I see it too 🙂

    I notice if you read the reporting of the Dutton “logic” carefully there is a slight problem with tenses when Frydenberg let the truth out today:

    “”That board deemed that he had a citizenship— [was] entitled to a citizenship of another country,” Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said today.”

    Entitled? So now a potential future citizen is an actually citizen now? I imagine Dutton and Josh would not be keen for courts to apply that logic to hundreds of legitimate refugees waiting on Nauru.

  16. C@tmomma @ #507 Thursday, January 3rd, 2019 – 6:52 pm

    Using Dutton’s ‘logic’ I, if I became a terrorist, could be deported back to Ireland, because that’s where our family came from originally, oh about 8 generations ago. 😆

    Don’t worry from what I read there’s Indian and Cambodian heritage in there as well, so he can keep trying.

  18. My kids went on holiday just before NY, and asked me to look after the plants.

    I’ve picked two types of lettuce, not Iceberg, one a frilly little lime-green thing, the other a greeny-brown broad-leafed thing (told to pick the leaves from the outside . . what!), both seemed to have wanted to bolt to seed. Taste-wise, not a patch on Iceberg, nevertheless, okay.

    I blame Bill Shorten.

  19. Steve777

    Actually that is not entirely true.

    Governor Phillips laid out a commodious town plan with wide streets and determined that ALL land north of about Haymarket would forever remain in public ownership and only ever leased.

    Its the Rum Corp gang that butchered the plan adter Phillips left

  20. Barney

    Thanks. So we have a potentially invalid cabinet minister making invalid citizenship decisions about a potential Fijian citizen.

    And if Prakesh is not a Fijian citizen right now, can you imagine how he would ever pass any character test to become one in future?

    I think the Reichspotato will be fried in court on this one. Indeed, the spud may be in hot water himself if he visits the HC.

  26. Rocket Rocket @ #520 Thursday, January 3rd, 2019 – 7:06 pm

    For cricket tragics : this just came on my youtube sidebar – just look at the field in first frames

    Bowler – Wicket Keeper – Cover (only non close catcher)
    Short Leg – Leg Gully
    FIVE slips and Gully

    – also Gooch’s debut – after being lauded by the commentator he is out for zero (same score as first innings in his debut Test)

    You don’t want to be Short Leg.

    You’re chasing everything that goes on the on side. 😆

  28. Remove unions from the Labor Party? Great idea… workers without a political arm! Finally, the solution to employment condition’s and the wealth gap… how could we have been so stupid?
    Rupert will be furious 🙂

  30. The other news I caught up with late today was Albanese’s statement on still wanting to fund AdeLink after the next Federal election. I was really pleased to hear this, but the new State Lib government is against it. A few mates in trucking companies no doubt want them to put billions more into South Road upgrading instead. I think this needs to be questioned.
    https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/anthony-albanese-the-man-expected-to-be-australias-next-infrastructure-minister-pleads-the-case-for-light-rail/news-story/590365d0cb293486939582a55e69af83

    From statements on the public record the following issues are apparent:
    1. There is a lack of approved business cases for the rest of the South Rd upgrading. There is a current project to produce one.
    2. In all the years planning of South Road has proceeded, There has never been a publicly reported BCR figure for it. If the BCR is less than 1 (highly likely given the cost and frankly low traffic volumes in Adelaide) then it would not qualify for funds under current IA and Labor policy. The first South Road upgrades have been completed for almost a decade now, and they have not created any Adelaide economic renaissance (the Port River Expressway has helped Osborne and the Port).
    3. The tram projects would probably employ more people and get a better outcome for the city (past tram projects had a good economic outcome for the CBD).
    4. Either way something needs to be prepared for tender or there will be a “valley of death” for transport infrastructure in Adelaide soon, with the Darlington and T2T projects winding up.
    5. The tram lines will need a new depot to store new rolling stock. This decision (locating a new tram depot) should determine where the next AdeLink line is built. I have not seen any such decision reported.

    So Albanese’s logic was quite correct, but I am concerned that the State coudl stall it, and effectively play Russian roulette with employment to force Federal Labor to fund the rest of South Road.

    Also, somebody should point out the waste of past SA Liberal transport decisions. When the Gawler Line electrification was cancelled by Abbott it “saved” $300 million. Now it will cost $600 million to finish, after a five year delay. Genius.

  31. socrates, no need for lawyers – he either is or isnt a fiji citizen, thats all it comes down to… Dutton insists he is, while the actual leader of fiji says he never has been.

  32. RR,
    I have never tried a Gazpacho before. Done lots of hot soups in winter but I think it’s time to take the plunge into an icy soup for summer. 🙂

  34. Adrian

    Thanks. Perhaps we can ask Fiji for advice on the Australian citizenship of any remaining suspect Liberal MPs still not referred to the HC? What is good for the goose is good for the gander.

    Anyway, I’m off to get some sleep before hopefully watching Liverpool beat Man City at 6.30AM tomorrow morning. Go LFC 🙂
    Night all.

  35. And speaking of India and cricket as it relates to politics in a roundabout way, I noticed that Virat Kohli was married to a Bollywood movie star (of course), whose surname is Sharma. So there you go, eh? Less than 6 degrees of separation between the captain of the Indian cricket team and Dave Sharma, Liberal hopeful for Wentworth. 🙂

  37. And it’s good night from me too. The Cicadas and the Crows have been waking me up at sparrow’s fart every morning recently. 😆

    Oh, and don’t forget, tomorrow is the day that the Democrats take over the House in the USA. I am thus looking forward to Trump losing his tiny little mind. 🙂

  38. C@tmumma

    “I have never tried a Gazpacho before. Done lots of hot soups in winter but I think it’s time to take the plunge into an icy soup for summer. ”
    ………..

    Gazpaccho is wonderful but i would also recommend Garlic Soup (Sopa de Ajo). I love it

    Spain has a number of cold soups

  39. It is actually today the Democrats take over the House of Reps, as it is the 3rd of January today. It is also already the third on January in the USA. It could even be argued that the changeover has occurred in most of the world as no time zone is specified in the 20th Amendment.

  40. Big A Adrian

    And with no mid on or mid off, the batsman was encouraged to chance their arm for an easy four runs – or then edge the ball into the five slips! Amazing to see all eleven of the fielding team on one close shot of the centre wicket square.

  41. “Oh, and don’t forget, tomorrow is the day that the Democrats take over the House in the USA.”
    —–

    Yes, don’t forget as good subjects of the New Republican Empire you must wank over another group of northern hemisphere non-entities.

    what a sad country without any pride we have become.

  43. I don’t give a flying fuck whether the democrans or repubcrats rule in the USofA.

    To me American shit smells the same as all other shit.

  44. Completely gutted after another episode of The Vietnam War. My Lai massacre, Kent State University, Nixon. What a completely fucked up place the USA is. What a completely fucked up species we are.

    OH gone to meditate on a rock in the garden.

    I just booked La Passion de Simone (s. Jane Sheldon) thanks to swamprat’s alert. I’d meant to get it sorted already. Anything Sydney City Opera and Jack Simmons do is on gotta go list. Carriageworks is a great venue. Jane Sheldon was the soloist in The Howling Girls – a group of young New York women unknown to each other who were rendered speechless by 9/11 – not a spoken word, just primal utterances.

    Thanks swamprat.

  49. I like roast beetroot, but for a salad roll, I like the tinned stuff. Ah, a good hard crust roll with salad, a bit of mayo, and a couple of slices of last night’s roast. With cold lamb, a bit of mint sauce instead of mayo, cold beef roast with horseradish, pork with mustard, chicken with… no leftover chicken, the dogs get that.

    A mash of cold roast veges, some cold roast meat all in a long roll. Maybe even a swipe of cold gravy.

    With a cup of tea.

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