Poll positioning

Fraught preselections aplenty as the major parties get their houses in order ahead of a looming federal election.

Kicking off a federal election year with an overdue accumulation of preselection news, going back to late November:

• Liberal Party conservative Craig Kelly was last month saved from factional moderate Kent Johns’ preselection challenge in his southern Sydney seat of Hughes, which was widely reported as having decisive support in local party branches. This followed the state executive’s acquiescence to Scott Morrison’s demand that it rubber-stamp preselections for all sitting members of the House of Representatives, also confirming the positions of Jason Falinski in Mackellar, John Alexander in Bennelong and Lucy Wicks in Robertson. Kelly had threatened a week earlier to move to the cross bench if dumped, presumably with a view to contesting the seat as an independent. Malcolm Turnbull stirred the pot by calling on the executive to defy Morrison, noting there had been “such a long debate in the New South Wales Liberal Party about the importance of grass roots membership involvement”. This referred to preselection reforms that had given Johns the edge over Kelly, which had been championed by conservatives and resisted by moderates. Turnbull’s critics noted he raised no concerns when the executive of the Victorian branch guaranteed sitting members’ preselections shortly before he was dumped as Prime Minister.

• The intervention that saved Craig Kelly applied only to lower house members, and was thus of no use to another beleaguered conservative, Senator Jim Molan, who had been relegated a week earlier to the unwinnable fourth position on the Coalition’s ticket. Hollie Hughes and Andrew Bragg were chosen for the top two positions, with the third reserved to the Nationals (who have chosen Perin Davey, owner of a communications consultancy, to succeed retiring incumbent John “Wacka” Williams). Despite anger at the outcome from conservatives in the party and the media, Scott Morrison declined to intervene. Morrison told 2GB that conservatives themselves were to blame for Molan’s defeat in the preselection ballot, as there was “a whole bunch of people in the very conservative part of our party who didn’t show up”.

• Labor’s national executive has chosen Diane Beamer, a former state government minister who held the seats of Badgerys Creek and Mulgoa from 1995 to 2011, to replace Emma Husar in Lindsay. The move scotched Husar’s effort to recant her earlier decision to vacate the seat, after she became embroiled in accusations of bullying and sexual harassment in August. Husar is now suing Buzzfeed over its reporting of the allegations, and is reportedly considering running as an independent. The Liberals have preselected Melissa McIntosh, communications manager for the not-for-profit Wentworth Community Housing.

• The misadventures of Nationals MP Andrew Broad have created an opening in his seat of Mallee, which has been in National/Country Party hands since its creation in 1949, although the Liberals have been competitive when past vacancies have given them the opportunity to contest it. The present status on suggestions the seat will be contested for the Liberals by Peta Credlin, who was raised locally in Wycheproof, is that she is “being encouraged”. There appears to be a view in the Nationals that the position should go to a woman, with Rachel Baxendale of The Australian identifying three potential nominees – Anne Mansell, chief executive of Dried Fruits Australia; Caroline Welsh, chair of the Birchip Cropping Group; and Tanya Chapman, former chair of Citrus Australia – in addition to confirmed starter Anne Warner, a social worker.

• Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie yesterday scotched suggestions that she might run in Mallee. The view is that she is positioning herself to succeeding Cathy McGowan in Indi if she decides not to recontest, having recently relocated her electorate office from Bendigo to one of Indi’s main population centres, Wodonga. The Liberals last month preselected Steven Martin, a Wodonga-based engineer.

• Grant Schultz, Milton real estate agent and son of former Hume MP Alby Schultz, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Gilmore on New South Wales’ south coast, which the party holds on a delicate margin of 0.7%. The seat is to be vacated by Ann Sudmalis, whose preselection Schultz was preparing to challenge when she announced her retirement in September. It was reported in the South Coast Register that Joanna Gash, who held the seat from 1996 to 2013 and is now the mayor of Shoalhaven (UPDATE: Turns out Gash ceased to be so as of the 2016 election, and is now merely a councillor), declared herself “pissed off” at the local party’s endorsement of Schultz, which passed by forty votes to nine.

• Hawkesbury councillor Sarah Richards has been preselected as the Liberal candidate in Macquarie, where Labor’s Susan Templeman unseated Liberal member Louise Markus in 2016.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,175 comments on “Poll positioning”

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  1. Bushfire Bill @ #443 Thursday, January 3rd, 2019 – 6:25 pm

    Clearly, no one gives a shit what I think about Das Boot.

    Come to think of it: neither do I.

    So be it.

    I care. I have the movie on “my list” on Netflix, and the TV series on “my favourites” on SBSOD.

    When I finally get around to watching them, you will feel the blast of my umbrage. Or not. Who knows, I may actually agree with you.

    Something for you to look forward to. Or not.

    Whatever.

    Carry on. As you were.

  2. Anyone who has never enjoyed a Vegemite and iceberg lettuce sandwich has just not lived!

    My mum introduced me to this combination. A true revelation!

  3. Can I be bothered backtracking to find the beginning of the Iceberg Wars?

    Yeah, nah.

    Tomorrow’s temp in Motown.

    42 degrees!. That’s C.

    #weatheronPB

    Umm, but I must confess, I love iceberg lettuce. Best there is.

  4. Nath

    Egg, iceberg lettuce mayo …

    And of course the classic prawn cocktail from way back when. Prawns, spicy mayo on a bed of shredded iceberg.

    I think I would like one right now.

  5. “I hate brussel sprouts! ”

    Yay! Lets have jihad against brussel sprouts, eggplant and iceberg lettuce!

    Oh and cuttlefish (evil bastards)……..??

  6. “Clearly, no one gives a shit what I think about Das Boot.”

    You are entitled to politley express your opinion BB………..misguided as it is. 🙂

  7. Rossmcg says:
    Thursday, January 3, 2019 at 9:46 pm

    Nath

    Egg, iceberg lettuce mayo …

    And of course the classic prawn cocktail from way back when. Prawns, spicy mayo on a bed of shredded iceberg.

    I think I would like one right now.
    _________________________
    yes not bad. My all time fav sandwich from the bottom layer is, salami, red peppers, lettuce, cheese and one slice of beetroot on top. OMFG.

  8. They could have grown in any way the wit of the Governments’ wanted.

    Sadly, no Government/politician has ever had any wits!! Nor urban purpose.

    Australia could have had the most awesome cities in the world, but ……….

    I think there is still a lot of fear and ‘we can’t afford it’ stopping our Govts doing things we really cannot afford to do without. How is it not apparent that a really really good public transport system is a key to congestion. That good density with amenity is key. That you don’t have to let developers do whatever they think will maximise their profits, you can try and do what will actually be good for the community.

    I guess in NSW if you can’t even get luxury high rise accommodation built so it can actually be lived in, perhaps whether or not there is an accessible train / transport hub that doesn’t divide the centre in half isn’t really a big issue.

    I was in a local government where the main centre, had no centre, it had three rubbish competing could have been centres, one of which was just a big supermarket.

  9. poroti
    “Not that the quantity of ‘wits’ was ever inversely proportional to the amount of $s flowing from ‘Developers’ ”

    —–

    sadly, too true and still a problem.

  10. poroti @ #459 Thursday, January 3rd, 2019 – 9:47 pm

    Player One says:

    A few potato chips takes it to an even higher plane.

    While we are on culinary delights … a few from my early school days …

    Chip butties: made by hollowing out the inside of a round, white bread roll, then filling the void with a packet of salted crisps.

    Peanut butties: similar, but filling the void with a packet of salted peanuts.

    Who says Australia lacks a national cuisine?

  11. Nath

    I think you are a dill but you may be redeeming yourself a bit with your culinary choices.
    Anyone who puts beetroot in a sandwich can’t be a 100 percent lost cause.

  12. kezza2 says:
    Thursday, January 3, 2019 at 9:51 pm

    And hold the beetroot.
    _______________
    All things considered you really can’t beat a root.

  13. WeWantPaul

    “I think there is still a lot of fear and ‘we can’t afford it’ stopping our Govts doing things we really cannot afford to do without.”
    —–

    Well, the supply of infrastructure is expensive but planning for it and most importantly allocating land for it could have been a mnormal cost of develpment.

    I know, i used to argue about it and politicians would say if we reserve land for it there will be pressure to supply.

    I would say that is a good thing not a bad one.

  14. And of course the classic prawn cocktail from way back when. Prawns, spicy mayo on a bed of shredded iceberg.

    Sacre bleu! You haven’t had a prawn cocktail until you’ve had it with baby spinach and not the dreaded flavour-absence iceberg lettuce.

  15. Rossmcg says:
    Thursday, January 3, 2019 at 9:56 pm

    Nath

    I think you are a dill but you may be redeeming yourself a bit with your culinary choices.
    Anyone who puts beetroot in a sandwich can’t be a 100 percent lost cause.
    ________
    Thanks……I guess 🙂 Beetroot was put on this earth for us to eat and I love it. I particularly enjoy it in combination with potato salad. This combination is a brilliant one, they compliment each other so well, particularly if the potato salad is a good one. I’m talking with spring onions, a bit of egg and just a dash of bacon. Incredible.

  16. nath

    “All things considered you really can’t beat a root.”

    ——

    I love beetroot, The great Australian vegetable, like iceberg lettuce and vegemite!!!

  17. Way back when, I said to vic (vic from Victoria) and Phoenix Red — I’ll wait till the book comes out about boring Donald Trump.

    Since posting that, I’ve done nothing but consume American TV, and a little Aus, and a lot of late night ABC radio.

    There’s nothing on the ABC, late at night, other than quizzes, and country music, and a 95 year old Emily (bless her), and sundry other characters, but bugger all politics.

    And when they have a talk-back about a particular topic, there’s just the talk, and no feed-back. Thanks for your contribution. Heady stuff.

    An absolute relief reading here and there, PB with BK’s fabulous morning round-up and all youse who contribute.

    Happy belated New Year to you all.

  18. Talking about iceberg lettuces; I know I shouldn’t bring it up; but what is it about women giving them a good touch up in supermarkets.

  19. Metro Trains has met its monthly punctuality target just six times in the past 12 months, yet the train operator has received $6 million in taxpayer-funded bonuses.

    Daniel Andrews – the goose the lays the golden egg.
    Metro Trains, Crown, Aquasure and Transurban would all agree.

  20. Well, the supply of infrastructure is expensive but planning for it and most importantly allocating land for it could have been a mnormal cost of develpment.

    I know, i used to argue about it and politicians would say if we reserve land for it there will be pressure to supply.

    I would say that is a good thing not a bad one.

    Oh even the minor local govt infrastructure is expensive, but it seems to me, in my limited experience, that, that is something that would make politicians and the planners, more, not less, insistent on density realization around infrastructure. That would make transport orientated infill a no-brainer. But between NIMBY type stuff and developer power it seems very little of the sensible stuff is done.

    Some group from the City of Perth went to Houston. Unless it was a ‘how not to do it’ trip it was an insane choice. I don’t know if it was true or not but while I was in Houston people insisted not only was there very little planning but there was next to no zoning.

  21. frednk @ #474 Thursday, January 3rd, 2019 – 10:04 pm

    Talking about iceberg lettuces; I know I shouldn’t bring it up; but what is it about women giving them a good touch up in supermarkets.

    You mean you don’t know about the ‘signal’ of wandering around a supermarket with a trolley containing only an iceberg lettuce?

    You don’t mean you have been buying them to eat????

  22. taylormade

    Why doesn’t Andrews buy it back for public benefit, at a suitable discount?

    I thought Victoran Labor was not a Howard Labor Party like NSW.

  23. Nath

    get your head out of your pants, for just a moment.

    Seriously boring.

    I love beetroot, but I don’t like it spoiling every other flavour on the plate. Worse still, bleeding, in a sandwich, of any kind. Totally ruins it.

  24. kezza2 says:
    Thursday, January 3, 2019 at 10:09 pm

    Nath
    I love beetroot, but I don’t like it spoiling every other flavour on the plate. Worse still, bleeding, in a sandwich, of any kind. Totally ruins it.
    ________________________
    Yes that can be a problem, but with just one slice and if u drain it a bit when it comes out of the bowl. It wont do that. I cook my own beetroot so that it doesn’t have all that sugar like the ones in the can do.

  25. Hey, BK

    How are you and your family?

    When I read your morning roundup, here and there, when I can, I’m amazed at your ability to distil the morning news. Thanks ever so much for all your work. I couldn’t do without it. You’re a legend.

    :

  26. Nath

    I only ever use beetroot whole, cooked by moi.

    Never the sliced crap from tins.

    But have never roasted them. Thanks BK, for the tip. Sounds great.

  27. kezza2 says:
    Thursday, January 3, 2019 at 10:19 pm

    Nath

    I only ever use beetroot whole, cooked by moi.

    Never the sliced crap from tins.
    _________________________
    They taste so much better and you can slice them yourself! At a fraction of the cost.

  28. Cooking some calimari from Vic market tomorrow.

    Step 1. Marinate 1.5cm strips in fresh lemon juice for a few hours.

    step 2 . Shake dry the calamri and give it some air.

    Step 3 Dry roast a handful of sichun pepper and salt and pound into a powder. Add to a hand full of flour and some cornflower.dust the calimari with this

    Step 4 slice up some spring onion, red and green chillies and deep fry in hot peanut oil for a minute. Keep warm.

    step 5 deep fry the dusted calimari in the peanut oil in batches for a minute or two

    Pile onto a warm plate… cover with chilli and spring onions. Squeeze of lemon.

    Enjoy.

  29. nath

    “Never the sliced crap from tins.”
    ——

    when i was a wee one, beetroot always came in tins and i confess i loved it. But now i roast or boill my own….

  30. I know I’m behind the times, old girl, but I’ve been thinking about the ABC journo who alleged that the leader of the NSW state Labor party sexually assaulted her.

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t she say she was in a public space when this occurred?

    What I’m wondering is why on earth she didn’t say something at the time? I mean, right there and then. Why on earth would she freeze?

    Wouldn’t you say “WTF do you think you’re doing!”

    I dunno, but my older sister would have had him in a headlock in no time.

    I probably would have laughed. And told him to piss off.

  31. Tinned asparagus is so wrong it could only have been invented by Australia’s cricket selectors.

    Tinned beetroot though is tops. A hamburger without it is a meat bun.

  32. “And hold the beetroot.”

    It must have been a tough year marketing that poor vegetable. And no, I am not refering to the challenges faced by national party media advisers.

  33. Just one word in the beetroot debate (actually I do like beetroot but it does have that major problem of staining things!)

    борщ (Borsch or Borscht)

    Which is largely beetroot, and which I had always assumed originated in Russia but now I find that its origin is unclear.

    ps – how did people get onto this Beetroot thing? Was it Barnaby Joyce’s ‘article’ today?

  34. swamprat

    And I lived near the Kooweerup Swamp, the best dang asparagus-growing area in Victoria. And we had it served up to us, from a can!

    I can scarcely equate the taste of tinned asparagus with the beauty of a freshly steamed bunch of asparagus dotted with butter, sprinkled with black pepper, with that lot served up to us when we were kids.

    However, I can still taste the canned asparagus. We sort of sucked them down, whole. How barbaric.

  35. Okay, a few things…

    1. You squeeze an Iceberg lettuce to see how hard its heart is. The good ones and best value are the ones who have tightly-compacted centres, ie hard hearts.

    2. Could you please leave the poor Eggplant alone!?! Obviously no one here knows how to prepare it properly so as to make it sweet and tender when you cook it!

    You have to chop it up into little cubes, sprinkle them with salt and leave them for half an hour in a colander. Then you squeeze them dry and use them in your Ratatouille, as I do.

    Or you can slice them, do the salt thing, dry them and then fry them on an ironstone griddle with olive oil then sprinkle them with grated Parmesan. Yum!

    3. My son’s favourite bread topping right now is Vegemite and Bread and butter cucumbers. 🙂

    4. Who needs Iceberg lettuce when you can just buy a pillow bag full of salad greens!?! Chuck them in a salad bowl with some beetroot and balsamic dressing and feta cheese cubes and you are ready to have your taste buds singing!

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