Federal election minus six months (probably)

Tales of preselection action from Hughes, Indi, Cowper, Bennelong, Chisholm, Longman and New England.

Roughly six months out from a likely federal election, a gathering storm of preselection action. (Note also the thread below this one on the Victorian election campaign).

• Phillip Coorey of the Australian Financial Review reports Scott Morrison has sought to save Craig Kelly from a preselection defeat in Hughes, but that moderate backers of challenger Kent Johns are not to be deterred. According to a source identified as one of his conservative allies, Kelly “has been remiss in looking after his branches and would be lucky to have 25 per cent of the vote”. Quoth a moderate: “As far as the moderates are concerned, Malcolm Turnbull saved Concetta Fierravanti-Wells and Angus Taylor and Kelly last time, and look what they did to him.” Among the quandaries this raises are that Kelly may react to his defeat by moving to the cross-benches, further weakening the already shaky position of the government.

• There have been a few suggestions that Barnaby Joyce may fall foul of a new candidate-vetting process the Nationals have introduced, ostensibly to prevent further Section 44 mishaps. Figures in the party appear to have been putting it about that Joyce might face trouble due to the fear that even after the events of the past year, there remain “skeletons in the closet”. However, inquiries by Richard Ferguson of The Australian suggest that “a few members on the NSW Nationals’ 84-people-strong central council do plan to refuse to endorse Mr Joyce but they are in the minority”.

• David Johnston of the Border Mail reports nominees for a Liberal preselection vote for Indi, to be held on December 8, include Steve Martin, project manager for the Mars Petcare Wodonga plant expansion and Seeley International’s relocation from Albury to Wodonga, and Stephen Brooks, a local businessman. Another potential nominee is Greg Mirabella, husband of former member Sophie Mirabella. The seat’s independent member, Cathy McGowan, has not yet committed to seeking another term. The report also raises the possibility that Senator Bridget McKenzie, who is preparing to move her electorate office to Wodonga, might run for the Nationals.

• Christian Knight of the Nambucca Guardian reports the Nationals have preselected Patrick Conaghan, a local solicitor who was formerly a police officer and North Sydney councillor, to succeed the retiring Luke Hartsuyker in Cowper. The other candidates were Chris Genders, a newsagent; Jamie Harrison, former Port Macquarie-Hastings councillor and owner of an electrical business; and Judy Plunkett, a Port Macquarie pharmacist. Conaghan appears to have won over half the vote in the first round.

• Labor has recruited Brian Owler, neurosurgeon and former Australian Medical Association president, as its candidate for Bennelong. The party had initially preselected Lyndal Howison, communications manager at the Whitlam Institute and the party’s candidate in 2016, but she agreed to step aside for Owler.

• Gladys Liu, director of Blue Ribbon Consultancy, has been preselected as the Liberal candidate to succeed Julia Banks in Chisholm, having emerged “the clear winner in the field of eight candidates”, according to Liberal sources cited by Benjamin Preiss of The Age. Other candidates included Theo Zographos, a Monash councillor, and Litsa Pillios, an accountant. James Campbell of the Herald Sun reports Liu had backing from party president Michael Kroger and conservative powerbroker Michael Sukkar.

• David Alexander of the Pine Rivers Press reports the Liberal National Party has preselected local small businessman Terry Young as its candidate for Longman. The party recorded a portentously weak showing in the seat at the Super Saturday by-election on July 28, for which Young was an unsuccessful preselection candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,349 comments on “Federal election minus six months (probably)”

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  1. If Corbyn is upsetting the likes of Boerwar and Briefly (there is only a cigarette paper between their views and the Tories) than I am very pleased. Love the accusations of racism thrown around against all and sundry by Briefly, but his prejudice against all things British is quite okay apparently. There is a word for that… hypocrisy!

  3. On the cricket front we have a quartet of very fine fast bowlers being Cummins, Starc, Pattinson and Hazelwood to do the “hack” work

    Never lose sight of this

    I have never had a regard for Lyon who to me lacks variation evidenced by bowling around the wicket – so we seek a leg spinner of the ilk of MacGill ( there will never be another Warne)

    Behind the stumps we have Carey, an exception keeper and can bat

    The batting?

    In the first instance the money in the game today sees batsmen playing longer including going from State to State, stifling potential

    Then there are the formats, now including 20/20 so bash and smash, and the schedule to accomodate which fractures the Shield competition as we see – so education to bat long is periodic and you could argue secondary

    Hence the problems we are encountering with our batting order and identifying Test batsmen

    CA have taken their eye off their responsibilities to the history of cricket in Australia and are running around after revenue and the politically correct – there is no hard nose, no direction and no resolve

    Then we have the South African Captain insulting the host Nation, a serial ball tamperer and the leader of the abuse inflicted on the Australian players and their partners in South Africa mocking that Australia courtesy of CA wore the consequences whilst South Africa walked away scott free

    We have a couple of strengths – but we have some significant problems not yet addressed starting from the top

    The shame currently is that CA is not the only administration lacking direction and focus in Australia today

    Australia has moved on from fore lock tuggers living in the past

  5. Yeah Poroti, these Colonel Blimp types really impress Briefly and Boerwar. It reinforces all that stuff they learnt every Sunday morning watching Bob Santamaria on Point of View.

  7. Boerwar @ #743 Saturday, November 17th, 2018 – 6:51 pm

    KJ
    I was watching the women’s cricket the other day. It was an ODI. And I enjoyed it! They enjoyed it! There were smiles, rueful smiles and pleased smiles!
    There was a personal grace about their movements.
    There was athleticism and there was skill.
    Much funnerer than watching the men, I bethought myself.

    I’ve given up on the men’s game. They lack the joy that is abundant in the women.

  9. More seriously, sparked by goings on here in Brisbane…

    Life “break into Brisbane’s empty buildings to house homeless”

    Greens councillor calls for civil disobedience campaign to establish crisis accommodation in vacant government properties

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/17/bold-call-to-break-into-brisbanes-empty-buildings-to-house-homeless

    imitates

    Art “the public”

    since the city’s shelters have run out of room, rather than perish in the freezing weather, the un-housed of Cincinnati would be occupying the library that night

    https://medium.com/everylibrary/the-public-movie-review-fc86273b2200

  10. Groupers? What is it, 1953?

    Any party that seeks to be in Government has to be a broad church. It needs the support of over half the population, mostly through direct votes, with the balance being made up by preferences.

    Ideological purity won’t do it, as the “Liberals” will hopefully find out to their cost next year.

  12. p
    Before the Royals visited the Alice they trucked the homeless and the Todd dwellers out to the desert and dumped there.
    They saved on rocks.

  13. Late Riser @ #757 Saturday, November 17th, 2018 – 8:07 pm

    Boerwar @ #743 Saturday, November 17th, 2018 – 6:51 pm

    KJ
    I was watching the women’s cricket the other day. It was an ODI. And I enjoyed it! They enjoyed it! There were smiles, rueful smiles and pleased smiles!
    There was a personal grace about their movements.
    There was athleticism and there was skill.
    Much funnerer than watching the men, I bethought myself.

    I’ve given up on the men’s game. They lack the joy that is abundant in the women.

    A moment prior to instilling my single drop into my right eye (glaucoma).
    Tomorrow – I bethink myself (just as well the Bears are inanimate or I would be chided ❓ for my upmarket self image) another T20 match to delight and amaze us.

    Sun, 18 Nov
    2:00am AEDT on 9GEM & 9Now
    4th T20 – Australia v India
    Providence Stadium, Guyana

    Dammit I will have to record and watch later.
    Goodnight again. 💤

  15. Steve777, yes but you have to draw the line somewhere. In what way can Labor maintain any sort of progressive credibility with right wingers like those two putting lead in the saddle bags? Is it 1951, Briefly and Boerwar both think so.

  16. sprocket_ @ #655 Saturday, November 17th, 2018 – 3:36 pm

    BeetRooter will be with us for another 3 years..

    National Party members met inside the Uralla Showground Pavilion on Saturday morning to select Barnaby Joyce as their candidate for New England in the coming Federal Election expected early next year.

    About 150 of the party faithful turned up to have their votes recorded at the meeting. Although Mr Joyce was pre-selected unopposed, he said it was a huge relief and that he was very humbled by it.

    Mr Joyce said he took the pre-selection process very seriously and thought each one was important; so much so that it took him a number of days to decide what he was going to say to the meeting.

    https://www.armidaleexpress.com.au/story/5763108/nats-stick-with-barnaby-joyce-as-their-new-england-candidate/?cs=471

    Now it is up to Fiona Simson of the NFF to throw her hat in the ring as an independent. She has impeccable credentials for the New England electorate.

    My sources have not told me what the prevailing mood is, I will be interested to find out.

    But in any case, if she does nominate as an independent against Joyce, it will be popcorn time!

  17. poroti, yes it seems a cynical way to describe the situation. But I’ve read different takes on the landscaping, both with and without quotes. And I have no personal knowledge of the situation. For me it isn’t about the bridge, it is that as a society we’re missing something. Compassion alone doesn’t work. Housing does. I haven’t time to find the links, but I think there’s an example in Arizona where the city or county simply bought or built houses and encouraged homeless folk to live t here. It turned out cheaper for the city/county and better for the once homeless. Crime rates went down too.

    We need some imagination and courage to back it up.

  19. Poriti, the You Tube clip was a great get and so reminds me of Briefly’s right wing rants. I reckon he has the full set of Point of View episodes on VHS, lol.

  20. Because Labor is the real broad church I am prepared to allow Clem to stay inside the Labor tent.
    For now.
    True, he is intemperate, rude, insulting and out of his own personal control from time to time, but his heart is in the right place.
    Clem does lack discrimination which is why he dotes on charlatans like Corbyn.
    But, like me, and this is the truly important thing, Clem genuinely believes in social justice and in the suite of policy reforms which currently constitute the Labor Party platform.
    So, I will continue to do HTVs and pre polls for Mike Kelly in Eden Monaro.
    And Clem will no doubt do the same on his home turf.

  21. Clem genuinely believes in social justice and in the suite of policy reforms which currently constitute the Labor Party platform.
    ______________________
    I would like to know what are big differences between the ALP and the Liberals in relation to ‘social justice’ presented at this election? I can’t see much of a difference.

  22. nath
    My advice to you would be to avoid fly fishing… choice of fly is important, of course, and the timing and so on and so forth.
    But really, my friend, it is all in the presentation.

  23. National Party members met inside the Uralla Showground Pavilion on Saturday morning to select Barnaby Joyce as their candidate for New England in the coming Federal Election expected early next year.

    About 150 of the party faithful turned up to have their votes recorded at the meeting. Although Mr Joyce was pre-selected unopposed, he said it was a huge relief and that he was very humbled by it.

    Jeez the local Nats couldn’t find anyone to run against him? That is telling about the health of the party at the moment that they’d prefer a do-nothing, lazy, loud-mouthed fool to represent them again.

  24. Trolley Man has his day in court for what seem to be relatively minor property crimes in the Melbourne CBD, having what is elliptically referred to as a ‘troubled’ relationship with the Police, long before he shot to national fame. He was bailed.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/trolley-man-faces-court-on-burglary-charges-after-handing-himself-in-20181117-p50gn5.html

    No doubt the Victirian Opposition will be bellowing loud and long at every opportunity that he should be locked up and the key thrown away.

  29. “I would like to know what are big differences between the ALP and the Liberals in relation to ‘social justice’ presented at this election? I can’t see much of a difference.”

    I don’t pay much attention to what’s ‘presented’ at any election, it’s mostly bullshit, especially on the Right, who have to hide their true agenda. As for social justice, Labor believed in it, the Coalition parties don’t. And Labor can be pure and achieve nothing or get 51% percent of the vote and get stuff done.

  30. ‘clem attlee says:
    Saturday, November 17, 2018 at 8:46 pm

    Ha, ha Boerwar, I am a fly fisher and have been for over 40 years.’

    I tried but was really too impatient. I admire those who are good at it. I did a fair bit of hopper fishing with just a hook and very light line but I suppose that to a purist, that is cheating?
    Have you ever fished the Breakaway, BTW?

  31. Observer – I disagree about Lyon – you cannot simply diss the top wicket taker of 2017 like that – he is effective, regardless of variety – geez – Warne even says he gave the same ball several names so it sounded good when he was talking to the press (and I am in no way dissing his amazing ability).

    Carey needs more time to develop the mental side of the game.

    Batting – we need to turf the lot and start again. And Swampy Marsh needs to lose whatever ‘influence’ he has over selectors – his soms are overrated by selectors and fools like Warne who wax lyrical over them.

    Aussies need to stop expecting all our players to be the best there is. We had an advantage with superior training and tactics in the past – but the rest of the world has caught up.

  32. S777
    ‘As for social justice, Labor believed in it, the Coalition parties don’t. And Labor can be pure and achieve nothing or get 51% percent of the vote and get stuff done.’

    Well summarized. It is exactly why I do my little bit.

  35. What I don;t want is Tory Lite. Thanks to Corbyn and Sanders, the left has been moving away from that in recent times. Get Up has helped here. Thank god for that. I was starting to run out of excuses to keep voting Labor. Have done in every election since my first the Federal election of 1980.

  36. Casting is not hard, it just takes practise. Having a decent rod helps, as does having someone who knows what they are doing helping you. Yeah, fish the Breakaway and most other spots on the Goulburn. it’s my ‘home’ water. Do a lot of fishing up in the Snowies… Swampy plains river at Khancoban and Eucumbene too.

  37. Clem
    I believe that at least some of Labor’s policies will cost me money and that I would be better off financially voting for the Coalition.
    But, I have grandchildren. I love the environment. I am concerned for those marginalized in our society and want to be able to lie straight in bed at night.
    It is why I vote Labor and why I support Labor.
    If the Greens were not such a miserable bunch of spoilers I might be tempted to vote for them.
    But making real change means that Labor has to be in the main game and that means being somewhere not far from the bulk of Australian voters.
    I am hoping that three years of a steady Shorten Government will enable further and betterer changes in the future.

  38. Clem
    We may have crossed tracks over the years. If you go to the Breakaway from the Melbourne side and cross the bridge just past the caravan park, the next house on the left is where we used to live. The land to your left is where we grew cauliflowers. The land to the right (past the first spud paddock) is where we used to grow strawberries.
    It is a beautiful neck of the woods.

  39. If Labor allows exploitative policies to continue, we may as well vote Tory, at least their heart is in it. Simply putting Labor bums on green leather seats gives me no satisfaction whatsoever. I want to see real policy aimed at helping working class Australians.

  40. Clem
    ‘ I want to see real policy aimed at helping working class Australians.’

    Yep. One of the tests… a real test… will be whether Labor does something effective about real wages.
    Anyway, must be off to bed now.
    Tight lines!

  41. Steve777
    I don’t pay much attention to what’s ‘presented’ at any election, it’s mostly bullshit, especially on the Right, who have to hide their true agenda. As for social justice, Labor believed in it, the Coalition parties don’t.

    _________________________________________

    Apart from a promised review into social security payments I haven’t heard of any policies addressing social justice, maybe there are a couple, but the fact that no one can name them is a bit worrying.

  42. Yeah. have fished there for at least forty years. The fisheries have put fish in there over 15 pounds in weight this season. Ha, ha, it has seen a lot of angling traffic.

  47. Ahh, those magnificent men with their nutty beliefs – elected once more:
    The superstars of the Freedom Caucus include men like Louie Gohmert of Texas, who may actually be from space. Gohmert once accused Obama of trying to recreate the Ottoman Empire; opposes gun control because, he says, gay marriage leads to bestiality (seriously); and believes pregnant women are coming to the US to birth “terror babies” who will grow up to “destroy our way of life.” He voted in favor of letting hunters kill sleeping bear cubs in their dens, and in favor of a bill to denude the Americans With Disabilities Act of its civil rights protections.
    https://truthout.org/articles/house-republicans-terrible-before-the-midterms-are-now-much-worse/

    I can think of a few of ours who come close, but do not quite make the grade of elected nuttery that some Republicans do.

  49. Today’s PvO.

    Why is politics so bad? That’s the most common question I get asked by those who aren’t forced to pay attention to the ­sliding standards as part of their day job.

    There isn’t a simple answer. In fact, some astute observers argue that the decline is more perception than reality. My colleague at Griffith University, and one of Australia’s leading political scientists, Patrick Weller, argues that we see the politics of the past through rose-coloured glasses. He says the same divisions and debates dogged the governments of Bob Hawke and Paul Keating.

    There were leadership rumblings, claims of poor policy design, backflips and questions about the quality of the MPs. A search through newspaper clippings from the time supports his contention. But Weller agrees that the proliferation of media interest in politics and the reactive nature of the 24-hour news cycle have created the impression that Canberra is less functional than it once was.

    https://outline.com/K4AtCV

    Methinks his Griffith Uni colleague has a point. In the era of digital information everything happens in the here and now. Not so with previous generations.

  50. Yes! Leaners, I’d forgotten that. Guess it doesn’t include superannuated ex PM’s never having to work another day in their life. Ah, to be a lifter!

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