This time four weeks ago, Malcolm Turnbull enjoyed surging approval ratings and a slow but persistent improvement in voting intention that had put the Coalition within striking distance on the BludgerTrack two-party poll trend. The story of his journey from there to here begins with the Super Saturday by-elections, a fact that future historians may find a little puzzling. Objectively speaking, the results in the two seats where the Coalition took on Labor were disappointing rather than disastrous: in Braddon they held their ground, which in most circumstances would be regarded as a pretty solid result, while the swing of 3.7% in Longman was well in line with the by-election norm.
One part of the problem for Turnbull was that expectations had not been duly managed — not least by Peter Dutton, who apparently put it to a radio interviewer shortly before polling day that the Liberal National Party had Longman in the bag. Instead, Longman produced the one genuine surprise of Super Saturday, in the LNP’s failure to crack 30% on the primary vote – a result surprisingly few thought to attribute to the troubled campaign of Trevor Ruthenberg. The lesson drawn by a critical mass of the state’s marginal seat MPs was that they would not survive the next election unless a solution was found to One Nation, which could not be accomplished with Malcolm Turnbull as leader. Since most of the support the party has lost to One Nation will be coming back as preferences, the argument presumably goes that One Nation’s strength is also driving voters to Labor, as it seemed to do in Peter Beattie’s heyday.
The first polls conducted after Super Saturday told of only minor damage to the Coalition on voting intention. The Newspoll and Essential Research polls conducted just under a fortnight ago both had the Coalition down two on the primary vote, but Newspoll had most of it returning through the filter of a strengthened One Nation, leaving Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, while Essential ticked a point in Labor’s favour to 52-48. However, the real difference lay in Turnbull’s personal ratings: Essential continued to show roughly equal approval and disapproval, while Newspoll had his net rating going from minus 6% to minus 19%.
The most recent poll, from Ipsos, concurred with Newspoll in finding Turnbull in freefall: his net approval rating (always unusually positive from this pollster) went from positive 17 to minus 2. However, the poll also provided the first strong indication of the rot extending to voting intention, on which the Labor lead surged from 51-49 to 55-45. Given the pace of events last week, it’s important to bear in mind that the field work period was Wednesday to Saturday. Turnbull’s latest energy policy formulation was made known overnight on Saturday and endorsed by the party room on Tuesday; talk of resignations and floor-crossing dominated political reporting over the next few days; and Turnbull’s damaging backdown on a legislated emissions target came late on Friday. The latter, at least, would clearly have been too late to have had any real impact.
Prior to Super Saturday, the leadership showdown the media-polling complex was gearing up for was not Turnbull versus Dutton, but Shorten versus Albanese: Newspoll and YouGov Galaxy by-election polls stirred the pot with voting intention questions for a hypothetical Albanese leadership, and duly recorded stronger results for Albanese than Shorten. No such exercise has yet been conducted involving Malcolm Turnbull, whether against Peter Dutton or any other challenger, a fact that may have had an impact on how the leadership crisis has played out to this point. The omission will presumably be rectified over the coming days.
Good morning all. It looks like we are in for a very exciting and entertaining day. Bon appetite
Michael Cohen surrenders to FBI
Michael Cohen enters courtroom, plea deal expected soon
Michael Cohen, President Donald Trump’s former personal attorney, has entered the courtroom in Manhattan federal court after surrendering to the FBI earlier Tuesday.
The government is expected to disclose a plea deal at the 4 p.m. hearing, according to a law enforcement source.
As part of the deal, Cohen is expected to plead guilty to multiple counts of campaign finance violations, tax fraud and bank fraud, according to three sources. The deal would include jail time and a substantial monetary fine.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/08/21/politics/michael-cohen-plea-deal-talks/index.html
LIVE ON CNN:
BREAKING: Manafort jury reaches verdict on some counts, but not all
The jury in the Paul Manafort trial has reached a verdict on eight counts, but it can’t reach consensus on 10 counts.
Judge T.S. Ellis said he will ask each juror their feelings about reaching a verdict.
If they all say they cannot reach a verdict: Ellis says he would likely declare a mistrial on 10 counts and have the verdict read on the remaining 8 counts.
Both sets of attorneys said they agreed with this plan.
BREAKING: Manafort found guilty of at least one count
Paul Manafort has been found guilty of at least one count in his criminal trial.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/manafort-trial/index.html
‘It’s all your fault!’ Trump screamed at Giuliani — and blamed him for putting Don Jr. in legal jeopardy
A new report from Vanity Fair’s Gabriel Sherman claims that President Donald Trump is now blaming attorney Rudy Giuliani for supposedly putting his own son in legal jeopardy.
A person described by Sherman as “close to the Trump family” claims that the president is particularly furious with Giuliani because it appears that special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe appears to be turning its attention to Donald Trump Jr., who set up the infamous Trump Tower meeting with Russian government officials to get dirt on then-rival Hillary Clinton.
“A lot of what Trump is doing is based on the fact [that] Mueller is going after Don Jr.,” the source said. “They’re squeezing Don Jr. right now.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/08/fault-trump-screamed-giuliani-blamed-putting-don-jr-legal-jeopardy/
On the banking RC an analysis in the SMH ‘Where to now for your super’, of the last 2 weeks. Remember when Dutton said he was concerned about certain super funds and certain trustees (‘ trade unions and what-not’), well the retail funds have a major problem with their trustees:
Another possibility is the forced separation of the trustees from the financial institutions that run the funds.
Well, it looks as though being in a different timezone gives me the chance to comment first. WHOOPS NO – TOOK WAY TOO LONG TOO WRITE MY POST!
All I can say, is like TPOF on the previous thread, I really have no idea when the next election will be.
Turnbull’s leadership should be terminal, but of course he has no obvious popular successor. Also, the GetUp commissioned ReachTel suggests that if Mal is leader, the TPP is 49/51 to the coalition. While it is only one poll, it is pretty close to the average TPP of all polls over the last 6 weeks or so.
In normal times, I would say that if the the coalition just STFU, the 49/51 gives them a good chance of just getting over the line to win the next Federal election, considering that, for some reason, Labor tends to need about 50.5% TPP to be able to form government.
Do the Coalition have polling that we are not privy to? Or do they just really hate Malcolm, and are willing to sit on the opposition benched just to get rid of him? Discuss.
A question from a modern history HSC / VCE exam from 2089, which has fallen through a time warp to land on my desk.
Manafort found guilty on 8 counts, mistrial declared in 10
Paul Manafort was found guilty of five tax fraud charges, one charge of hiding foreign bank accounts, and two counts of bank fraud.
The other 10 charges were declared a mistrial.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/manafort-trial/index.html
Brandi Buchman @BBuchman_CNS
Court has recessed, no sentencing date for Manafort has been set yet. No comment from prosecutors about what they plan to do with mistrial charges. They have until Aug. 29 to say what they plan to do about those charges.
#ManafortVerdict @CourthouseNews
Michael Cohen says he made illegal campaign contributions ‘at the direction’ of Trump
Former Trump “fixer” Michael Cohen on Tuesday admitted that he made an illegal campaign contribution with President Donald Trump’s knowledge and direction.
As part of his guilty plea, Cohen admitted to making illegal hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels and Playboy model Karen McDougal “at the direction” of Trump, who was described in the plea as a candidate for federal office.
Cohen also told the court that he made the illegal payment “for the purpose of influencing” the 2016 presidential election by covering up the president’s “alleged affairs.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/08/michael-cohen-says-made-illegal-campaign-contributions-direction-trump/
Phoenix
The Cohen surrender to the FBI and his admittance to campaign finance charges involving Trump and Stormy Daniels is the big deal.
Trump is now caught up directly in a breach of federal law as a candidate for President of the United States.
Concetta F-W says that Malcolm has moved too far to the left.
Incredible judgement. I wonder where she thinks ‘left’ is.
Rather inclined to add two words beginning with f… w… to her name.
Hunt, Ciobo and Taylor voted for Dutton.
I’m wondering if Hunt voted for Dutton simply to jump on what he saw as the new leadership. Always supports his own advancement, but no moral convictions IMO.
Al Pal says: Wednesday, August 22, 2018 at 7:05 am
Phoenix
The Cohen surrender to the FBI and his admittance to campaign finance charges involving Trump and Stormy Daniels is the big deal.
Trump is now caught up directly in a breach of federal law as a candidate for President of the United States.
*********************************************
Totally agree with you Al Pal !!! – this part says it all – ” he made the illegal payment “for the purpose of influencing” the 2016 presidential election” ….. Manafort and Cohen in I day …… wonder if Trump will try pardon them ????? ……..but I think if he is shown to be a co-conspirator with Cohen then he can’t pardon him
Michael Avenatti: ‘Trump’s entire criminal enterprise is crumbling around him — he’s in trouble’
… political analysts wondered what today’s poor outcomes for Cohen and Manafort mean for the president.
Michael Avenatti, Stormy Daniels’ lawyer, appeared on MSNBC and pointed out that things don’t bode well for Trump.
“If you look at how swiftly this has occurred, the president has only been in office for 19, 20 months, and his entire criminal enterprise is crumbling around him,” Avenatti said.
Avenatti added that charge 8 against Cohen was his client and she has been vindicated. He also said that the president has been incriminated.
“He’s got a lot of explaining to do — he’s in trouble,” he concluded.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/08/michael-avenatti-trumps-entire-criminal-enterprise-crumbling-around-hes-trouble/
The idiocy of the right of the liberal party is astounding. They claim that the party has not been looking after its base. But its base doesn’t win elections. The right did well when it stole the liberal brand and had an actor-PM as a front. Now it’s going to find out what the electorate really think of it.
Morning all. Thanks for the summary William. Like you I have found the lack of Turnbull vs challenger polling extraordinary given the state of the Liberals overall polling. It still seems amazing to me that Libs want to jump ship to Dutton when he may be less popular than Turnbull.
Meanwhile Dutton only has to find dirt on/convince seven MPs to switch to become PM. I predict Turnbull will not be attending any AFL finals as PM unless he has real dirt on Dutton. Referring his Commonwealth income matter to the HC would be a funny final epitah.
If Turnbull left parliament, given the demographics of his seat and Dutton’s personal views, would the Libs win a bielection there?
Phoenix
This is the day Trump faces the reality of the law. A high crime and misdemeanour. Donald is in nearly as much strife as Malcolm!
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
The ministerial exodus continues as Hunt and Ciobo pull the pin.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-22/malcolm-turnbull-leadership-crisis-deepens/10149440
Peter Hartcher examines the motives for ditching Turnbull. It’s not particularly pretty.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-s-so-momentous-that-the-country-must-discard-its-prime-minister-20180821-p4zyv7.html
The SMH editorial says for the sake of the country it’s time to go to the polls. It says that unless this happens the Liberal Party will be torn between competing visions of a regionally based Trumpian populism represented by Mr Dutton and Mr Turnbull’s pro-business metropolitan values.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/time-to-go-to-the-polls-20180821-p4zyud.html
Katharine Murphy write this morning that the Dutton camp is continuing to foment the Coalition’s leadership crisis, with ministers who supported the former home affairs minister in Tuesday’s snap leadership ballot tendering their resignations as a prelude to a second challenge.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/21/peter-dutton-challenge-malcolm-turnbull-leadership-resignations
She says it’s all over: the Coalition has cracked under the strain of the PM’s hardcore haters.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/21/its-over-the-coalition-has-cracked-under-the-strain-of-the-pms-hardcore-haters
Mark Kenny tells us why Julie Bishop would not get the top job.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-most-obvious-candidate-to-win-back-voters-isn-t-in-the-running-20180821-p4zyvz.html
Paul Bongiorno reckons ho matter what, Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership is fading to black.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/08/20/malcolm-turnbull-leadership-terminal/
Matthew Knott tells us why the unpopular and unknown Peter Dutton is on the verge of becoming PM.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-unpopular-and-unknown-peter-dutton-is-on-the-verge-of-becoming-pm-20180821-p4zyr0.html
Jacqui Maley tells us why Dutton has trouble smiling.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-not-peter-dutton-s-fault-he-hasn-t-been-able-to-smile-20180821-p4zyvs.html
Norm Abjorensen writes that it is not just Malcolm Turnbull and the government that are the losers in this latest political spat, it also signals the end of any hope for a national interest-focused political consensus emerging to address a range of critical issues, of which climate change is just one. Abbott comes in for a lot of attention.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/political-consensus-was-already-in-feeble-health-now-it-is-now-dead-20180821-p4zysi.html
Phil Coorey writes that Peter Dutton flagged immigration curbs and did not rule out walking away from the Paris climate change targets, as his core supporters moved to force a second leadership ballot this week by resigning en masse from the frontbench last night.
https://www.outline.com/fKLLf2
And he says Turnbull has finally showed some fight. It may be too late.
https://www.outline.com/PhyYAB
Jennifer Hewett says that Shorten is the winner as the Liberals implode.
https://www.outline.com/XWn6nz
Andrew Tillett gives us the inside story of Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership crisis.
https://www.outline.com/Lg5R22
Tony Wright says Malcolm Turnbull is living on borrowed time, a smiling assassin awaiting.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/malcolm-turnbull-living-on-borrowed-time-a-smiling-assassin-awaiting-20180821-p4zytw.html
Julie Bishop has says that Dutton has been after the top job since April.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/i-m-not-canvassing-that-option-julie-bishop-turns-fire-on-peter-dutton-20180821-p4zywg.html
Michelle Grattan examines the resignation letter of Connie Fierravanti-Wells to explain the problems in the Coalition.
https://theconversation.com/fierravanti-wells-resigns-from-ministry-accusing-turnbull-of-ignoring-liberal-partys-conservative-base-101924
Nicholas Stuart laments that politics has become all personality at the expense of good policy.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/politics-has-become-all-personality-at-the-expense-of-good-policy-20180821-p4zyr7.html
Chris Wallace opines that the Turnbull government is all but finished, and the Liberals will now need to work out who they are.
https://theconversation.com/the-turnbull-government-is-all-but-finished-and-the-liberals-will-now-need-to-work-out-who-they-are-101894
Law professor Rosiland Dixon reckons Dutton will be busy divesting his trust’s interests in his wife’s child care businesses.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-dutton-s-cool-response-to-constitutional-questions-tells-us-20180821-p4zyrm.html
Jackson Stiles says that Malcolm Turnbull’s ‘Frankenstein’s monster’ is losing more body parts.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/08/21/malcolm-turnbull-cabinet-resignations/
The Liberal Party is heading towards a looming federal election short of cash, with prominent MPs and marginal seat holders struggling to secure the millions of dollars needed to mount an effective campaign against Labor.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-liberal-party-is-short-of-cash-just-months-out-from-a-federal-election-20180821-p4zyv8.html
The Grattan Institute’s Tony Wood says we should mourn the NEG becoming the latest victim of the political slaughterhouse.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-dutton-s-cool-response-to-constitutional-questions-tells-us-20180821-p4zyrm.html
The ANU’s Frank Lotzo writes that the collapse of the NEG is by no means the end of carbon policy, it is simply sounding the bell for another round. And it may just be that the states can seize the initiative in the short term.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-next-now-the-neg-has-collapsed-in-a-festering-heap-20180821-p4zysd.html
Giving the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission the power to break up powerful energy companies would be a catastrophe for the electricity market. Energy expert Danny Price said it would freeze fragile investor confidence and make things much worse for consumers.
https://www.outline.com/mmsd79
Ross Gittins declares that most of the recent drought relief is a waste of money. This is an excellent contribution.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/our-concern-about-the-drought-isn-t-fair-dinkum-20180821-p4zypf.html
Trump’s going to go even further troppo as his longtime lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen has agreed to plead guilty to federal criminal charges including campaign finance violations. https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/ex-trump-lawyer-cohen-takes-plea-deal-with-us-prosecutors-20180822-p4zyws.html
And in news just in it is reported that Cohen has done a deal with prosecutors.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/ex-trump-lawyer-cohen-takes-plea-deal-with-us-prosecutors-20180822-p4zyws.html
Just to add to his woes Trump’s former campaign chairman Paul Manafort was found guilty overnight of eight of the 18 charges he faced in a case of bank and tax fraud. The judge in the case declared a mistrial on the 10 other counts.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/world/north-america/ex-trump-campaign-chairman-paul-manafort-found-guilty-of-tax-fraud-20180822-p4zyx2.html
Faced with new evidence that Russian hackers are targeting conservative US research groups and the Senate’s own webpages, key lawmakers from both parties signalled yesterday that they were ready to move forward with punishing new sanctions legislation capable of crippling the Russian economy.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/facing-new-russian-hacking-senators-signal-readiness-to-act-20180822-p4zywu.html
Simon Birmingham should refuse to bow to the Catholic school sector’s demands over funding reform to avoid giving ammunition to state governments eager for an excuse to back out of Gonski 2.0 commitments, education experts have warned.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/22/coalition-warned-all-bets-are-off-if-it-bows-to-catholic-school-funding-demands
Joanna Morehead writes, “How dare the pope ask ordinary Catholics to atone for child abuse?” She says that it was the church hierarchy’s desperation to protect itself that led to these horrors. It must reform – not us.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/21/pope-catholic-church-child-abuse-letter-atone
Anti-corruption researchers say the “the time is now” to create a strong and independent federal integrity body, after new research showed most Australians believe federal politicians are corrupt.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/21/overwhelming-majority-of-australians-believe-federal-politicians-are-corrupt
The Commonwealth Bank’s charging of fees to dead clients or their families affected 2103 accounts, and resulted in $3.9 million flowing into the bank’s coffers, a document published by the royal commission shows.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/cba-fees-from-dead-clients-affected-more-than-2000-accounts-20180821-p4zytc.html
Telstra has failed, in the past, to take advantage of its position as the essential core of a networked world. How will they survive the next technological onslaught?
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/telstra-caught-in-a-perfect-storm-as-5g-and-the-nbn-threaten-major-disruption/
Elizabeth Knight tells us how business has learned to be immune to leadership rumbles.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/same-drama-different-day-business-immune-to-chaos-in-canberra-20180821-p4zyu1.html
Fear of war in the Middle East, a political crisis in Venezuela and a crude oil cartel agreement means Australians are paying more for petrol, the consumer watchdog says. Petrol pries are at a four year high.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/consumer/2018/08/21/petrol-prices-four-year-high/
Emanuel Exports, the company at the centre of a horrific live exports scandal involving the deaths of thousands of sheep at sea, has had its licence to export animals permanently cancelled.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/rogue-live-exporter-emanuel-exports-hit-with-permanent-cancellation-20180821-p4zywo.html
Kate McClymont with a nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-drug-dealers-the-developers-and-the-missing-millions-20180821-p4zyw6.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe at his brutal best!
Mark David nails it.
Peter Broelman takes us to the greengrocer.
And he makes a very good point here.
Mark Knight wonders who is pressing Dutton’s buttons.
A few from Matt Golding that are not in the Fairfax collection at the bottom on this section.
Zanetti and Turnbull’s emissions target.
Alan Moir sums up Turnbull’s political acumen.
And he says we have an early Halloween.
Fiona Katauskas with the seven stages of leadership spills.
David Pope with a MUST SEE contribution.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/act/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
Johannes Leak in the party room.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/9a5805295cebd87a568a32c03017e59f
Lots more good ones in here.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-august-22-2018-20180821-h14aa2.html
Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
Is Malcolm Turnbull ’embattled’ yet?
The SmearStralian has commenced the hagiographic restoration of that nice young man from Brisbane
“
“Being realistic, I know I don’t have a good chance. But there is always next time.”
This is Peter Dutton speaking, not yesterday, after he inflicted what’s almost certainly a mortal wound to Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership, but way back when he was a newly minted Young Liberal with a mop of dark hair and plenty of ambition.
The year was 1989 and an 18-year-old Dutton had been preselected to run against Labor legend Tom Burns, soon to be the deputy premier of Queensland, in the seat of Lytton on Brisbane’s bayside. Talk about a hiding to nothing.
But here he is, Australia’s next prime minister in waiting, biding his time on the backbench for what will inevitably be a second strike. If John Howard’s iron law of political arithmetic applies, the numbers foretell Turnbull’s doom.
In the partyroom yesterday, the vote was 48-35 against Dutton, who quit as home affairs minister after contesting the Liberal leadership. History says it’s only a matter of time before the sums come out his way, and Dutton’s pointed refusal to rule out another challenge underlines his determination to take down Turnbull.
If so, the man who would become Australia’s 30th PM will need to introduce himself to voters quick smart. Dutton, 47, may have forged a formidable reputation as a can-do minister and hero of the conservative Right, but he is less than a known quantity for the wider electorate, as we discovered when we showed his photograph to shoppers in Brisbane’s Queen Street Mall while the drama unfolded in Canberra.”
Someone is being groomed in the background as the compromise candidate.
John Hewson has commented that when there is another challenge there will be candidates other than Dutton. Also, Darren Chester and at least 3 of the cross benchers have indicated there is no support for Dutton as PM.
Morrison is the obvious one. But, he seems to have issues with the backers of the Dutton push. So, someone who is likely to gather cross party respect and support is required. The only candidate to me is Cormann. Perhaps Bishop and Turnbull will resign and open up seat opportunities as part of the exit pact that will be negotiated.
It might be a good time to remind Malcolm Turnbull that ‘there has never been a more exciting time to be an Australian’.
Anton
I agree. Surely Longman proved a Phon + Liberals alliance cannot win an election even in Qld. So how can they hold government in the rest of Australia?
Another thought – the Libs still have not realised the fallout of how the Fraser Anning speech and KAP stance have permanently damaged the far right stance via its dog whistling on racism.
lizzie @ #10 Wednesday, August 22nd, 2018 – 4:06 am
I have long stopped using RWNJ and replaced it with RWFW.
NJ implies that these people don’t know any better, while FW highlights the deliberate nature of their actions.
Connie FW fits this well.
I like it!!! 🙂
Mid-term changes of government are now the norm. A person can be elected without the intense scrutiny of their character, history and associations that a general election would provide. Changing to a leader that has unresolved issues would rightly be thought of by the electorate as intrinsically corrupt.
Dutton has questions over eligibility that can only be resolved by referral to the HC. Politian’s that cross the floor to refer him to the HC would be serving the greater good.
Thanks BK. Coorey is very good today on how Turnbull’s gutlessness has brought him to this situation.
Scrolonby
I read this morning that Dutton is busily removing himself from the family Trust, to make himself ‘safe’.
I noticed some concern on PB that having PM Dutton would result in the left letting their guard down, assuming that there is no chance the L/NP can win under him. Such concern is misplaced, Dutton is a figure of hate for the left and his ascension to the precious will light a fire under them. There is no plausible leader of the Liberal party who could more effectively motivate the left to get out and campaign against the L/NP than Dutton.
“Is Malcolm Turnbull ’embattled’ yet?”
I think Hartcher described him as that yesterday. 🙂
C@tmomma @ #18 Wednesday, August 22nd, 2018 – 5:27 am
Cactus is a more appropriate term.
Thanks as usual BK!
Is that because we have finally found the one issue that he is truly committed to? 🙂
Pictures of a smiling potato do not change Dutt’s history. But if the voters don’t really know him, they may support him.
History question: How many Qld ex-coppers have been PM?
Morning all
Thanks BK, Phoenix and ors for today’s reports.
There is so much happening!
Turnbull and Trump both closer to the abyss…
Couldn’t happen to nicer people. Lol!
lizzie @ #26 Wednesday, August 22nd, 2018 – 5:39 am
He’d need to remove his entire family from the trust in order to be safe.
You would have thought the SSM vote would have taught the Right something. But nope.
I’m thinking ahead to the schism which has to happen now in the Liberal Party and, going on Darren Chester’s stance, the Nationals as well, such that we will see the Conservatives and the Liberals emerge from the wreckage.
As Mr Bowe points out, they are going to have to decide whether they want to be Trumpian and Populist and very socially conservative, or try and appeal to the Sensible Centre Right of socially liberal and economically conservative ‘Aspirationals’ in the urban areas. I think the time has come when they can no longer straddle those two horses, as a cartoon depicted Turnbull trying to do last week, as a split up the middle now seems assured.
And, isn’t it funny how the putsch is being led by one of Santamaria’s old DLP Groupers, Tony Abbott? I guess you can say he is a true Conservative, he hasn’t changed a bit since his days at Sydney Uni. And this is his real destiny. Not PM, he’s crap at that. Not the Pope, he is tempted too easily by female flesh and earthly delights. But the guy who made BA Santamaria’s vision manifest.
Stay tuned.
From his aggressive statements about Shorten/Labor, it seems that he regards BS as evil. If he becomes PM, it doesn’t say much for bipartisanship at the top. Harsher and more antagonistic.
Zoom
“You would have thought the SSM vote would have taught the Right something. But nope.”
Good point. They keep forgetting those million odd young voters who got on the electoral roll as well.
C@tmomma
I suppose the Libs thought they had the two sides of conservatism covered when they became joined at the hip with the Nationals. I agree that it’s time for an official split, even though they may often work in coalition. Lovely image of Turnbull straddling a barbed-wire fence. 😉
Fervanti Wells strikes me as being in the Abbott mold – my way or no way – she does not accept a compromise between conservatives (i.e. hard right) and moderates, but wants a government of her persuasion only.
I have long pondered why, despite being an utter dud, Malcolm’s PPM was not worse than it was. I think the main reason was that small ‘l’ liberals clung onto him because it was the only way they could cling onto their party. He gave them permission to vote for a bunch of paleo-conservatives. That rationale is now gone. The mask has been torn off. Now it is a long slide into darkness for the party.
Cat
“ I guess you can say he is a true Conservative, he hasn’t changed a bit since his days at Sydney Uni. And this is his real destiny. Not PM, he’s crap at that. Not the Pope, he is tempted too easily by female flesh and earthly delights. But the guy who made BA Santamaria’s vision manifest.”
Thanks. I had not realised Abbott was a Santamaria fan in his uni days. I had a run in with some NCC loons while I was an undergrad. They were seriously deluded in my view. I think these people stick to their beliefs not because they are believable, but because they are very rigid thinkers. It would be too personally painful (psychologicaly) for them to admit they were wrong. It would mean admitting their lifes work was a mistake. So they stay in denial no matter how much evidence emerges BA Santamaria was a crazy zealot. Zero capacity for personal reflection and admitting error.
Vic
Today will turn out to be seminal and historic in the history of the US Presidency. He deliberately broke the law – as a co conspirator. That is a high crime. God knows what happens now,
BTW I wouldn’t put Turnbull and Trump in the same sentence. One is a decent individual, albeit spineless. The other is a disgusting human being.
Morning all.
10 frontbenchers have now either quit or offered to quit the ministry. Another leadership challenge can’t be too far away.
The Liberals can’t even do leadership change properly!
Socrates @ #41 Wednesday, August 22nd, 2018 – 8:07 am
I had a minor personal run in with some of Abbott’s droogs at SU. They were quite keen on Clockwork Orange analogies.
Mike Bowers: the beast with two heads.
fess,
Ciobo, Keenan & Hunt are staying on in Cabinet, Angus Taylor & Alan Tudge staying on in the outer ministry .
And it’s all happening in the US. Manafort convicted, and Cohen pleads guilty to banking, tax and campaign finance violations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trumps-longtime-lawyer-michael-cohen-is-in-plea-discussions-with-federal-prosecutors-according-to-a-person-familiar-with-the-matter/2018/08/21/5fbd7f34-8510-11e8-8553-a3ce89036c78_story.html?utm_term=.09cd45f13eb9
Good morning. I’m not a fan of Hartcher, to say the least, but this article (linked earlier by the esteemed BK) is well worth a read IMO.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-s-so-momentous-that-the-country-must-discard-its-prime-minister-20180821-p4zyv7.html
“So what could Dutton do differently? The answer is two-fold. Dutton offered only hints, but you can expect to hear him lay out plans to cut the immigration intake to ease pressure on infrastructure and housing. You can expect to hear him promise a much grander infrastructure plan. You can expect him to offer a more generous funding deal for Catholic schools. And to pitch for more coal-fired power and lower power prices. The tax cuts for big business would be consigned to history’s dustbin.”
And, according to some reports, remove the GST from power bills for pensioners.
So, apart from the ideologically-driven push for more coal generation, not such a conservative agenda after all: certainly not a fiscally conservative one. It’s really more of a populist agenda: oiling squeaky wheels, appeasing the shock jocks, etc. Measures you might expect any member with a marginal seat to come up with if asked (eg, Shorten has already made a sweetheart deal with the Catholic schools, and I bet you’d find a lot of Labor pollies who would think taking the GST off power bills for welfare recipients is a terrific idea).
Even more extraordinarily, Dutton is reported by the Guardian this morning as having made this comment.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/21/peter-dutton-challenge-malcolm-turnbull-leadership-resignations
“Dutton also made it clear he intended to use his time out of cabinet to soften his strong man image, and at one point suggested if it were up to him, he would have removed asylum seekers from Manus Island and Nauru.”
Dutton’s political reputation is largely built on his image as tough guy immigration minister. Given that the boats had been stopped by ScoMo, surely this image rests firmly on the way he held the line about detainees at Manus and Nauru. Now he’s saying he didn’t support this hard line. And who stopped him: Turnbull? (I doubt it.) His department? (If so, how does that fit with his “strong man” image?)
Fran Kelly nailed it this morning in her interview with Connie Fierravanti-Wells, when she asked Connie: “your problem is really just that you can’t accept having a moderate leader in charge of the party”. Connie then went off on a rant about how the party being too moderate was destroying them in NSW (Fran didn’t think to make the obvious point that it doesn’t seem to be doing the Libs too much harm at the state level). And Connie then started with the Cate McGregor nonsense that the party is best-placed with a conservative like John Howard in charge who then reaches out to the moderates.
If there were a conservative like John Howard, or Bob Menzies, waiting in the wings to replace Turnbull, I reckon she might have a point. But Dutton? To paraphrase the immortal words of the late Senator Lloyd Bentsen to Dan Quayle in the 1988 elections: “son, you’re no John Howard.”
If Dutton gets in you Laborites on here should all be jumping up and down for joy. Not so much because he’s too conservative, but because he hasn’t remotely got what it takes. If what the Guardian quoted him as saying about Nauru and Manus is true, and he’d made such a slip talking as a Prime Minister, he’d immediately be in freefall. If Labor and the Greens have any sense, they’ll file it away and bring it up immediately if he gets into the job.
The Libs need to start looking seriously at Morrison.
From this morning’s airport giveaway
Health Minister Greg Hunt and Citizenship Minister Alan Tudge last night offered their resignations after voting for Peter Dutton in the leadership ballot, with 10 frontbenchers confirmed as offering to quit the Prime Minister’s team.
The Australian has confirmed Mr Hunt and Mr Tudge offered to resign from the ministry but the Prime Minister told both they could stay in their portfolios.
Other frontbenchers who voted for Mr Dutton are: Michael Keenan, Steven Ciobo, Angus Taylor, Zed Seselja, Michael Sukkar, James McGrath and Concetta Fierravanti-Wells.
😆