BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its gradual movement to the Coalition.

With the only poll this week being Essential Research’s best result for the Coalition in 18 months, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its slow and steady trend this week in shifting 0.2% to the Coalition on two-party preferred. The only change on the seat projection is a gain for the Coalition in Victoria. No new leadership ratings this week, so that’s your lot. Full results as always through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

842 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 17
1 2 3 … 17

  2. lizzie @ #52 Saturday, May 26th, 2018 – 5:16 am

    Barney

    I feel sympathy for the first Mrs Barnaby, having to face these soppy pics of the new baby son.

    She will barely, if at all, get a mention as it will all be about resurrecting Barnaby’s career and position him to be back as leader before the next election!

  3. […] blowing up the nuclear testing site […]

    They “blew up” the test site with their last nuclear test. Demolishing an already condemned building (or in this case, mountain) isn’t a concession.

    Abstract:
    Surveillance of clandestine nuclear tests relies on a global seismic network, but the potential of spaceborne monitoring has been underexploited. Here, we determined the complete surface displacement field of up to 3.5 m of divergent horizontal motion with 0.5 m of subsidence associated with North Korea’s largest underground nuclear test using satellite radar imagery. Combining insight from geodetic and seismological remote sensing, we found that the aftermath of the initial explosive deformation involved subsidence associated with sub-surface collapse and aseismic compaction of the damaged rocks of the test site. The explosive yield from the nuclear detonation with seismic modeling for 450m depth was between 120-304 kt of TNT equivalent. Our results demonstrate the capability of spaceborne remote sensing to help characterize large underground nuclear tests.

    http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2018/05/21/science.aar7230

  4. ‘First, your savings have to be exhausted. You must have nothing in the bank…’

    Untrue.
    You can have $5500 if you’re single, $11,000 if you’re a couple. If you have more, then there’s a waiting period (depending on how much you have).

    ‘…If you can’t afford your mortgage then you will have to sell the house. Any money you have after paying the bank becomes your savings which you have to live on because you no longer qualify for assistance.’

    Yes (and I think it’s weird you can get rental assistance and not mortgage assistance…)

    As for the next bit, see above.

    You have to have assets of nearly half a mill to be ineligible.

    ‘Then you have to rationalise your housing. If you have a spare room you can rent it out but that rent is income so you won’t get Newstart.’

    Yes, you will. Unless you’re renting out your spare room for a thou or so a week.

    Centrelink wants you to earn income. Yes, payments reduce as you earn, but they reduce on a sliding scale, so you should always be ahead (until, of course, you reach the point where you’re earning way way more than the benefit, in which case you have nothing to complain about…)

    ‘ If you move into a share house it is likely one of your housemates will be declared your partner, regardless of your protests, and you won’t get Newstart.’

    Again, no. Otherwise half the student population would be ineligible.

    If they were your partner, you’d still get Newstart (couples rate, so reduced – but you’d be sharing the room, so paying less rent).

    I’m very very sympathetic, I just don’t believe that fake news is justified.

  6. Morning all

    Australia has formally stated that Russia is a rogue state, and is holding them accountable for shooting down MH17.
    Does this mean, our Australian soccer team is still going to the World Cup to be held in Russia in a few weeks time?

  7. Morning all. Much as I have criticised her extremist and obsolete communist views in the recent past, I congratulate Lee Rhianon for accepting the people’s verdict and resigning from the Senate. The Greens will benefit from her departure. Though I still find it amazing that 40% of the NSW Greens are pseudo greens who are really still unreformed communists using the Greens as a vehicle to advance Marxism. They make the former ALP-split “groupers” look like moderates.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/see-you-in-the-streets-lee-rhiannon-quits-senate-20180525-p4zhg8.html

  8. Lizzie

    And not forgetting the betrayal Barnaby’s daughters would be feeling.

    Daughters don’t forgive dads so easily for disloyalty.

  9. Morning all.

    Thanks BK and others for today’s news. The news from here is that the fires have been brought under control and we even had rain overnight!

  11. Robert De Niro has the right idea. 😀

    If Donald Trump ever comes to Perth on a state visit, there is one place he definitely won’t be welcome.

    While he technically may be the most powerful man in the world, the US President will be barred from Nobu at Crown Casino.

    The Japanese restaurant is part of a chain owned by Robert DeNiro and this week the actor gave an interview to The Daily Mail saying Trump would be barred from every Nobu restaurant if he tried to enter.

    The Daily Mail wrote “When asked who his dream dinner guest would be, Robert insisted he would never let Trump into any of the Nobu restaurants”.

    https://thewest.com.au/politics/donald-trump/robert-de-niro-bans-donald-trump-from-all-his-nobu-restaurants-including-perth-ng-b88846750z

  13. KayJay

    I’m interested in the Australian and Daily Telegraph fronts, simply because they are the most rabid LNP supporters and I would otherwise not see them in their full “glory”.

  15. lizzie @ #63 Saturday, May 26th, 2018 – 8:40 am

    KayJay

    I’m interested in the Australian and Daily Telegraph fronts, simply because they are the most rabid LNP supporters and I would otherwise not see them in their full “glory”.

    OK. Then that’s what I will do, although now I know where the image for the SMH can be found, I might as well do that too.

    Now – ♪a-mowing we will go ♫ … 😎

  16. Fess

    I recently went to a Nobu restaurant at Southbank in Melbourne.
    The food was fantastic. But you need big pockets! quite a costly exercise. Something I wouldn’t do too regularly. Lol!!

  18. Vic:

    I stayed at Crown Casino once when I had to go to Perth for an awards night. Work was paying for my trip thankfully as the whole experience was well beyond my budget!

  19. Lizzie, Victoria

    I can but agree with your views on Barnaby and his original family. The former wishes to change his image from cheater to cheater with a mouth to feed. Meanwhile all the latter are still marooned in Tamworth without friends, family or career prospects, having faithfully moved from Queensland for dad’s career.

  20. One more small detail about Joyce that says it all about his character. Many politicians get their wikipedia pages carefully editted for image enhancement. Have a look at the 8 year old photo used as the current mug shot in Joyce’s entry. Also the lengthy reporting of an ancestor’s military record, and almost no mention of his four daughters, other than a total number of children.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnaby_Joyce

  21. Paul Kelly

    Labor’s argument against the government’s income tax package on fairness and progressivity is falling apart. A major test looms.

    Another so called ‘test’ for Shorten. He has so many tests to complete,I dont think he will have time to mount an election campaign.He might as well go back to school.

  22. Socrates @ #69 Saturday, May 26th, 2018 – 8:57 am

    One more small detail about Joyce that says it all about his character. Many politicians get their wikipedia pages carefully editted for image enhancement. Have a look at the 8 year old photo used as the current mug shot in Joyce’s entry. Also the lengthy reporting of an ancestor’s military record, and almost no mention of his four daughters, other than a total number of children.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnaby_Joyce

    Nowhere, simply nowhere, does the term horses ass get a mention in the wikipedia entry.
    Very poor homework – can do better.

    🐴 Front end – not related to Mr. Joyce.

  23. Socrates

    That’s a very detailed bio (of which I didn’t read the whole). I’m surprised it hasn’t been massaged to make him appear more angelic!

  24. Fess

    Yes. More and more dots being connected. Meanwhile Trump has shifted from the FBI being spies, to the Dems. Anything for his gullible supporter base to believe. The whole notion that the President of the USA is continuing to conduct himself in this way is totally unfrickinbelievable.

  25. Benson in Murdoch’s Oz has this “exclusive” front page story in the dead tree version:

    PM’s tax plan destroys Labor claim
    SIMON BENSON
    Exclusive data blows a hole in Bill Shorten’s argument that the Coalition’s $144bn income tax cut plan is aimed at the wealthy.

    Crowe in Fairfax tells exactly the same story. It’s no revelation that Benson and Crowe both are conduits for L/NP propaganda but it does illustrate the low moral standards in return for $$$ displayed by many in the CPG.

    (BTW I accidentally typed “poopaganda” above – maybe I should not have corrected the mistake.)

    The Turnbull government is promising “middle income” workers the lion’s share of a $44 billion tax cut in the third and final stage of its contentious budget plan as it escalates the political contest over the household benefits.

    Treasurer Scott Morrison insists the “overwhelming” benefits will go to ordinary Australians according to new details on the cost of each stage of a reform costing $144 billion over a decade.

    The new figures add crucial information to the tax debate ahead of Senate hearings next week where Labor will interrogate officials on estimates the biggest benefits to go the wealthiest workers.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-pledges-tax-gains-for-middle-income-workers-20180525-p4zhlp.html

  28. @ Lizzie 7:35 – that is an interesting article by Quadbike. Of course his former boss will have none of it. Because … politics. For exactly the same reason that Tonser and Scrott decided to scuttle the Malaysian Solution: resolving Manus and Nauru would deny Ubergroupentuber the opportunity to scare a certain wedge of the community – that would probably otherwise vote labor over LNP – whenever someone from Labor says something sensible and ‘compassionate’ on the subject.

  33. ‘I’m not reading any more of these — they’re lies’: MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace refuses to read Trump tweets on air

    SNBC’s Nicolle Wallace, said President Donald Trump’s lies are getting out of control and they are more like “fairy tales and fantasy” at this point.

    On Friday afternoon, Wallace began catching up with Trump’s latest early morning tweet storm, reading them to her panel and viewers at home.

    However, before she could finish reading the tweets, Wallace paused and said: “I’m not reading anymore of this, these are bold face lies.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/05/im-not-reading-theyre-lies-msnbcs-nicolle-wallace-refuses-read-trump-tweets-air/

  35. phoenixRED @ #86 Saturday, May 26th, 2018 – 6:23 am

    ‘I’m not reading any more of these — they’re lies’: MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace refuses to read Trump tweets on air

    SNBC’s Nicolle Wallace, said President Donald Trump’s lies are getting out of control and they are more like “fairy tales and fantasy” at this point.

    On Friday afternoon, Wallace began catching up with Trump’s latest early morning tweet storm, reading them to her panel and viewers at home.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/05/im-not-reading-theyre-lies-msnbcs-nicolle-wallace-refuses-read-trump-tweets-air/

    WOW!!!!!

    She’s pretty quick on the uptake!! 🙂

  37. This is frickin hilarious!!

    Ale
    @aliasvaughn
    ·
    45m
    That will be fun. Even Assange is freaking out. Just LOL.
    Ari Melber
    @AriMelber
    Breaking: Randy Credico says Julian Assange told him he is now willing to talk to @RepAdamSchiff investigators for the Russia probe.

    Credico says he relayed this to Schiff’s staff *this Wednesday* in their meeting.
    Show this thread
    11
    35
    96
    Ale Retweeted
    Michael McKean
    Michael McKean
    @MJMcKean
    ·
    2h

  38. The Noose Tightens As Mueller Obtains Israeli Analysis On How Fake News And Bots Helped Trump Win

    The Russia investigation bad news keeps coming for Trump, as Special Counsel Robert Mueller has obtained an Israeli intelligence firm’s analysis of how fake news and social media accounts helped Trump get elected.

    The Wall Street Journal reported:

    Special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigators have obtained a presentation prepared by an Israel-based private intelligence firm that outlines ways in which Donald Trump’s 2016 election was helped by fake news and fake social-media accounts, according to people familiar with the presentation and documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/05/25/mueller-trump-israel-intel.html

  41. I haven’t been able to find out anything further on the redistribution of boundaries of federal seats. This obviously needs to be finalised before any federal election is announced

  42. Fess

    Damn. So much is happening on a daily basis. It is hard to keep up.

    I just had a good laugh reading the latest on Julian Assange

  43. PhoenixRed

    Even though the USA are not participating in the FIFA World Cup, I keep thinking that this whole imbroglio will escalate after the event is over.
    Call my thinking cray cray. But that is what continually comes to my mind

  44. Breaking: Randy Credico says Julian Assange told him he is now willing to talk to @RepAdamSchiff investigators for the Russia probe.

    Still striving for relevance! Hilarious.

  49. Fess

    Assange is in a shitload of trouble, and he knows it. Now he is willing to do anything to buy himself time. Honestly, I would simply get him out of the embassy and send him to Russia to hang out with his buddy Snowden. Traitors the lot of them

  50. A main issue with an early election is that the Parties can’t pre-select candidates in SA and Victoria until the final boundaries are released.

    So, an early election would cause everyone to scramble for candidates in those States. 🙂

Comments Page 2 of 17
1 2 3 … 17

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *