10.17pm. Thornbury pre-poll also swings slightly to Labor.
10.00pm. The Bundoora pre-poll voting centre has reported, and it produced a result typical for the electorate in swinging slightly to Labor. We will presumably get a further three pre-poll voting centres this evening, and presumably also a batch of postals.
8.36pm. Only pre-poll voting centres now outstanding, on the primary vote at least.
8.27pm. Labor’s small but seemingly decisive lead is holding more or less firm, now at 2.9% on my projection. Most of what remains is the large pre-poll voting centres.
8.17pm. The tide keeps flowing to Labor, with my model (3.4%) now more bullish for them than the ABC’s (1.9%).
8.13pm. Not sure where exactly, but a very good result has come in for Labor, pushing their lead out to a near-insurmountable 2.9% on my projected measure, which now differs only slightly from the raw result of 3.2%.
8.08pm. Most of the polling day booths are in now, and I’ve got Labor’s lead firming very slightly. If the Greens have a hope, it’s that a different dynamic will play out in the pre-poll voting centres.
8.01pm. As the count slowly creeps up, Labor retains its lead of around 1.5%. The Greens will want a couple of good results to come through pretty soon.
7.56pm. With around half the booths now in, the distinction between my model and the ABC’s has all but disappeared: Labor holding in both cases with a 1.5% margin.
7.54pm. Now I’ve got Labor’s lead out to 1.4%, which is a handy place to be with 40% of the vote counted, but not yet bolted down.
7.45pm. Yet another change of lead on my projection, but I’ve got the lead at 0.9% compared to the ABC’s 1.5%. ABC still staying Labor retain, I’m still saying too early to call.
7.42pm. The ABC computer is calling it for Labor, but it’s making no effort as I am to project preference flows on to seats where only the primary vote has reported, which is around half of them.
7.38pm. My hope that this might be sorted early on and I could devote my energies to South Australia is not being realised: once again my projected lead has changed hands, in large part because Labor’s preference share has now declined to 65%.
7.35pm. Now with over a quarter of the vote counted, Labor leads on the raw vote, but I’m projecting that to come back a little. Very close, in a nutshell, but Labor slightly favoured.
7.31pm. And now I’ve got the Greens with their nose in front. There are six booths in on two-party, none of which have swung much, but big swings to Labor in some of the booths in which we only have two-party numbers. The preference flow from the latter is being projected on to the former, and I’ve got Labor getting 69.4% of them.
7.25pm. Now with more substantial numbers in, it’s looking very tight – absolutely no swing at all on my two-party projection, with 12 counted in primary and five on two-party.
7.19pm. Some better results for the Greens send the pendulum back their way. My preference model is now going entirely off results from this election, and Labor is receiving 71.9% of them — 337 to 132 to be precise, going off the three booths that are in on two-party.
7.17pm. Labor have had some thumpingly good results in Alphington North and Collingwood, such that the ABC is projecting a 6% swing in their favour, and I’m projecting 7%.
7.11pm. Been sorting through a lot of technical problems with my live reporting, and I think I’m past the worst of them. So we’ve got three booths in on the primary vote and two in on two-party preferred, and my assessment is that it’s looking tight but with the Greens with their nose in front. For the time being though, this is largely based on a preference flow derived from the Northcote state election result, and the very early indications are that they might do better than that.
7pm. A very small polling booth called Murray, with 249 votes cast, has the Greens up 8.5% on the primary vote and Labor steady.
6pm. Polls have closed for the Batman by-election. This being an inner-city seat with large booths, it should take a while for us to start seeing numbers – perhaps as long as an hour. Wish me luck with my live results reporting facility.
Click here for more detailed (and better formatted) results.
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On the march to the political wilderness if they maintain their bravado.
Presumably, X will try to sneak back into Federal Parliament at the next election. Is it a certainty he will succeed (assuming half-senate?)
The Cryptic vote now at 6.5% in SA….
Bandt has a funny understanding of on the March, woeful results in Tasmania and SA, losing Batman, I think honesty and a serious appraisal of why they lost is their best bet.
Yeah i think the green would be best to retreat to their core policy objectives (the party name is a hint) and stop trying to be a pop-up advocate of tax loop holes.
‘“Many Australians who weren’t aware of this dividend imputation system, were surprised to discover that you can pay no income tax and receive literally tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars in tax refunds when you don’t pay tax.’
Exactly so.
And that’s the way to ‘sell’ tax policy – bring out a minor change, which affects relatively few people, but which brings to light a whole lot of examples which the average wage earner can see for themselves demonstrate serious problems with equity in the present tax system.
Then the average voter – who presented with a major change would have automatically resisted it – starts talking about further changes to the tax system being needed.
By the time another change is announced, voters are convinced that this is something they wanted, something they lobbied for, and welcome.
Rossmcg – Well said. And while Boerwar won’t agree and continue his anti-Green jihad, if the Greens hadn’t pushed labor we would probably still have feeney in Parliament, rather than Kearney. DiNatale has acted atrociously in this by-election, but the Greens do push Labor to improve their game.
‘if the Greens hadn’t pushed labor we would probably still have feeney in Parliament, rather than Kearney.’
Ah, some things are perennial. The Greens taking credit for things they had nothing to do with being one of them.
Rossmcg,
Feeney is a political genius.
I heard he spent hours trying to light the BBQ at his fully disclosed home so he could burn his British citizenship renounciation papers while cooking a few tofu snags.
Huge plot to make Batman secure !
Cheers.
I thought Feeney was tripped up by S44, not some wiley Green digging deep and digging in.
Yeesh, take a breath people.
Nothing became Weatherill so much as the manner of his leaving.
Great concession speech.
Rex? Rex?
Here is Pete Seeger:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1y2SIIeqy34
It still brings a tear to my eye, and as a former young gal (yes, yes, long, long time passing) this song really kick me in the guts.
In 1997, I visited my Australian friend living in France. We drove to Rheims, to have champagne and history before she dropped me at Charles de Gaulle airport for my trip back to Oz.
As we drove part the graveyards, we talked about the Vietnam War. And how while neither of us had kids eligible for conscription, there was no way we would have let the recruiting office take our kids to send them off to a war zone. We both agreed we would have hidden our kids, or done whatever else was required.
My friend is quite right wing, and I am pretty left, but on this we were in absolute agreement.
Year 35, Day 76 and the Greens succeed in doing something entirely new: with their backbiting, bitching and infighting they helped defeat themselves.
That noted, all credit to Ged, Bill and Chris.
Ged will be an excellent champion of the poor and of the workers.
Bill and Chris were rewarded for having the political balls to take on unpopular but necessary middle and upper class reform.
ANTONBRUCKNER11 says:
Saturday, March 17, 2018 at 10:26 pm
….but the Greens do push Labor to improve their game.
This is a fiction that the G’s use to conceal their real motive, which is to weaken Labor…if possible to disable Labor.
It’s obvious now that anti-Labor messaging is costing the Gs support. This can be seen in the SA results today, where the G PV has settled at 6.7%.
‘Lynchpin says:
Saturday, March 17, 2018 at 10:32 pm
Rex? Rex?’
Very, very funny.
Great night for Labor. Not a bad thing losing SA in some ways. Should help the balance Federally.
Shorten is a genius.
Not sure I would give Greens any credit. Though maybe there were questions about their candidate that had never been asked previously.
Just shows to me that you get good candidates in the right seats , and run good campaigns you have a chance.
Hopefully the people in WA who gave us Joe Bullock have learnt and some excellent candidates will knock over some Tories when the time comes.
Lynchpin says:
Saturday, March 17, 2018 at 10:34 pm
Great night for Labor. Not a bad thing losing SA in some ways. Should help the balance Federally.
There is actually a swing to Labor in SA…but the Libs are still in front…
My only concern re SA defeat is what Frytheplanetberg and Brian Trombone will say about renewables.
My only consolation on that point is that the community has really moved on from coal.
Surely Di Natale must be under the pump after this result.
His 11th hour scare campaign/pitch to pensioners in Batman was cynicism at its worst and smacked of desperation.
He should just be done with it, join the libs and FRO.
Where the f**k is Rex when I need to unload?
@Boerwar
OK, have not had time to follow the SA thread, so thanks for letting us know the outcome. After 16 hears, governments become “stale”, and while I do not like the policies of the other side, and fear the damage they will do, I think that the opposition benches are a great way to get rig of the hanger-on barnacles.
I really hope Marshall cannot reverse the great strides SA have made in introducing renewable energy.
Boerwar
Yep, said earlier i thought Weatherill a class act.
As Simon Birmingham just said, 16 years in the parliament, never in opposition, never a backbencher. Many MPs would envy that.
I guess he won’t hang around long.
Briefly – I am not a green and I am not carrying their water. I am just pointing out that having the greens in the mix forced Labor to improve its game. Hopefully, that will be their only role because they behaved appallingly in this campaign.
Regarding the reduction in the Greens vote in the last 12 months or so, I do not think the Greens party members understood how many grumpy Labor voters (yes, we are pissed off that our party needs to be reformed, and will go to great lengths to achieve this reform) voted 1 Green, 2 Labor.
But now that the Greens are saying same-same, and that it is OK to vote Liberal, we have just withdrawn our support. Because Greens party members may think it is OK to vote Liberal, but this of us who are progressive, and often vote Labor, do not think is is ever OK to vote Liberal.
@Rossmore at 9:56
How is a green vote wasted? (Assuming you are talking about Batman)
The only option was a Labor or Green member. Changing their vote to Labor would of done nothing.
Henry @ #420 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 7:39 pm
I did ask a week ago what a Labor win in Batman would signal for Di Natale’s leadership and was predictably piled upon by a screed of Greens with their spin and bullshit. No answers of course.
Lynchpin @ #421 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 10:39 pm
Hiding away like a mongrel.
He is a coward.
Will Cassidy declare on insiders tomorrow that the Government won the week?
South Australian’s are in for a tough time, I don’t need to all statesmen’s like so I can say they are going from a once in a generation visionary leader to a clown and almost certain disaster.
It is a little unfair (a little bit too generous to him) but it seems almost certain Weatherill will go down as one of, if not the key, leader of the Australian transition to renewables when all about him anchored themselves to the past.
There is a day much closer than many think when we will all be enjoying plentiful cheap renewable energy and he will forever be linked with that transformation not just in South Australia but as having lead the whole of Australia.
Shorten would be wise to appoint him (assuming he isn’t still leading Labor in SA) as the national energy transformation Tsar soon after taking office.
Rex is a bot. They switched him off for the night. They will switch him back on in a day or so.
“Will Cassidy declare on insiders tomorrow that the Government won the week?’
Doesn’t he every week? Pretty sure Malcolm never has to ring the ABC in a rage about insiders reporting facts.
Does this mean that the Australian electorate is becoming weary of the often random and utterly fruitless bastardry of the minors?
X did particularly poorly as well.
Dave, I have suspected for about 18 months that Rex is a Liberal plant. His one goal is to sow seeds of doubt about Shorten. Of course, he has failed miserably. Miserably.
B, I suspect so. The Greens under Dick have lost their purity, if they ever had any. They are grifters.
ANTONBRUCKNER11 says:
Saturday, March 17, 2018 at 10:45 pm
Briefly – I am not a green and I am not carrying their water. I am just pointing out that having the greens in the mix forced Labor to improve its game. Hopefully, that will be their only role because they behaved appallingly in this campaign.
They lay their baits. Green-bait.
Any effect they may think they have on Labor is imaginary. They suppose they draw Labor towards their positions. But, if anything, they repel Labor. The adversarial nature of the contest forces the Gs to separate themselves from Labor and the converse also applies. Labor must distinguish themselves from all their opponents. This is in the nature of the contest. The presence of the Gs on the pitch actually makes it more difficult for Labor to adopt positions that contrast strongly with Tory positions.
The Gs know this, of course. They use this dynamic to attack Labor.
“Dave, I have suspected for about 18 months that Rex is a Liberal plant. His one goal is to sow seeds of doubt about Shorten. Of course, he has failed miserably. Miserably.’
The whole Get Shorten movement has been a miserable failure. He has all but already defeated a strongly right wing, massively Malcolm loving institution, he has won over a lot of doubtful labor voters (including me) and he is polling in territory you need a PM as bad as Tony to even hope for (ok so yes Malcolm is worse than Tony but the MSM and most haven’t caught up with that fact yet).
Douglas and Milko:
I think you may be on the money there. IMO, the federal Greens really need to take a long, hard look at the direction they’ve been going in as of late, and the consequences it is having on both their electoral chances and their ability to affect change.
True WWP. In the Labor leadership ballot, I was initially favouring Albo. Shorten’s first speech in the debates convinced me otherwise.
He has hardly put a foot wrong since then, has he Rex?
Rex?
X is an attention seeking megalomaniac who just threw away another 4 years of high living, high salary, high status existence because he started believing in and implementing his own delusional fantasies.
Lynchpin @ #434 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 10:51 pm
Yes. He was a very ineffective bot at that.
A bear of very little brain or imagination.
Heaven above even ‘truthie’ had more imagination and patter.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/batman-votes-labor-holds-seat-in-crucial-byelection-20180317-p4z4w6.html
Go Girl 🙂
I think you will find that reports of Rex’s demise have been exaggerated.
He will keep away until the embarrassment he has inflicted upon himself by his trolling and baiting has subsided, and he has had the opportunity to lick his arse to relieve the pain of the kick he has received in that delicate region.
Then, when he thinks we have all forgotten, and the barbs of his jeers and insults have worked themselves out from under our skins, he will post again as if nothing happened.
To think otherwise is wishful.
FS
Spot on
The craven dog fucked off for a bit after the last election, only to same/same back.
Fulvio Sammut @ #443 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 11:12 pm
You are right of course. But too much information.
Its Still all Shorten’s fault though.
/off
My take is an excellent candidate, with a good campaign, against a poor greens campaign. The greens voters more than others, don’t like negative.
I don’t think Adani or the imputation tax made much difference. The tax announcement may have swung voters both ways but made no net difference.
Adani, despite the media coverage, Labor’s policy hadn’t changed, so on that issue, voters had already made their minds up.
I think it was a bad mistake for Di Natali, to attempt to get conservative votes on the basis of the tax changes.
My congratulations to Ged Kearney, whose presence I’m confident will improve the quality of the Labor caucus.
But a hearty “yikes” at the continuing rage from a select few here. Why the pressing need to “unload” on someone who may have supported the other candidate? Sore winners really are the most unnerving creatures…
itsthevibe @ #447 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 11:53 pm
So sad. Too bad.
What goes around comes around and too many people here have had an utter gutful of greens wagging fingers.
Fuck Off !
Very stable geniuses, one might say! 😛
Just two comments –
1.Di Natale begging Liberal voters to stand with the Greens to stop Labor getting rid of a loophole in the tax system will rightly follow him and his Party all the way till Federal Election day. You would almost think Shorten had planned this to wedge the Greens.
2.Ruawake – so good to hear you are doing OK. I always fear the worst here during people’s “radio silence” – all the best. Hope the transverse myelitis resolves.