10.17pm. Thornbury pre-poll also swings slightly to Labor.
10.00pm. The Bundoora pre-poll voting centre has reported, and it produced a result typical for the electorate in swinging slightly to Labor. We will presumably get a further three pre-poll voting centres this evening, and presumably also a batch of postals.
8.36pm. Only pre-poll voting centres now outstanding, on the primary vote at least.
8.27pm. Labor’s small but seemingly decisive lead is holding more or less firm, now at 2.9% on my projection. Most of what remains is the large pre-poll voting centres.
8.17pm. The tide keeps flowing to Labor, with my model (3.4%) now more bullish for them than the ABC’s (1.9%).
8.13pm. Not sure where exactly, but a very good result has come in for Labor, pushing their lead out to a near-insurmountable 2.9% on my projected measure, which now differs only slightly from the raw result of 3.2%.
8.08pm. Most of the polling day booths are in now, and I’ve got Labor’s lead firming very slightly. If the Greens have a hope, it’s that a different dynamic will play out in the pre-poll voting centres.
8.01pm. As the count slowly creeps up, Labor retains its lead of around 1.5%. The Greens will want a couple of good results to come through pretty soon.
7.56pm. With around half the booths now in, the distinction between my model and the ABC’s has all but disappeared: Labor holding in both cases with a 1.5% margin.
7.54pm. Now I’ve got Labor’s lead out to 1.4%, which is a handy place to be with 40% of the vote counted, but not yet bolted down.
7.45pm. Yet another change of lead on my projection, but I’ve got the lead at 0.9% compared to the ABC’s 1.5%. ABC still staying Labor retain, I’m still saying too early to call.
7.42pm. The ABC computer is calling it for Labor, but it’s making no effort as I am to project preference flows on to seats where only the primary vote has reported, which is around half of them.
7.38pm. My hope that this might be sorted early on and I could devote my energies to South Australia is not being realised: once again my projected lead has changed hands, in large part because Labor’s preference share has now declined to 65%.
7.35pm. Now with over a quarter of the vote counted, Labor leads on the raw vote, but I’m projecting that to come back a little. Very close, in a nutshell, but Labor slightly favoured.
7.31pm. And now I’ve got the Greens with their nose in front. There are six booths in on two-party, none of which have swung much, but big swings to Labor in some of the booths in which we only have two-party numbers. The preference flow from the latter is being projected on to the former, and I’ve got Labor getting 69.4% of them.
7.25pm. Now with more substantial numbers in, it’s looking very tight – absolutely no swing at all on my two-party projection, with 12 counted in primary and five on two-party.
7.19pm. Some better results for the Greens send the pendulum back their way. My preference model is now going entirely off results from this election, and Labor is receiving 71.9% of them — 337 to 132 to be precise, going off the three booths that are in on two-party.
7.17pm. Labor have had some thumpingly good results in Alphington North and Collingwood, such that the ABC is projecting a 6% swing in their favour, and I’m projecting 7%.
7.11pm. Been sorting through a lot of technical problems with my live reporting, and I think I’m past the worst of them. So we’ve got three booths in on the primary vote and two in on two-party preferred, and my assessment is that it’s looking tight but with the Greens with their nose in front. For the time being though, this is largely based on a preference flow derived from the Northcote state election result, and the very early indications are that they might do better than that.
7pm. A very small polling booth called Murray, with 249 votes cast, has the Greens up 8.5% on the primary vote and Labor steady.
6pm. Polls have closed for the Batman by-election. This being an inner-city seat with large booths, it should take a while for us to start seeing numbers – perhaps as long as an hour. Wish me luck with my live results reporting facility.
Click here for more detailed (and better formatted) results.
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yeah but if they then claim back the rebates the government won’t get to keep that tax revenue, ergo it wasn’t paid.
And you want a medal for that? Sad.
Nath – unless a party is in government, they cannot earn your vote. Oppositions can make proposals and policy statements (and if anyone believed Tony Abbott in opposition, policy proposals are only as good as the leader’s integrity), so it really is on spec.
nath @ #295 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 9:13 pm
Company tax is a tax on the company. The rebate was to avoid double taxation. Double taxation cannot arise if a share owner pays no tax.
It was a rort.
Well voters in Batman seem to disagree with you.
nath @ #295 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 9:13 pm
Well voters in Batman seem to disagree with you.
They appear at this stage baring a turnaround to not be overly worried about it.
nath @ #292 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 9:16 pm
A pensioner with an income of $25000 would be a Part Pensioner, surely?
why should the government keep such a large amount from a low income aged pensioner? People on huge incomes wont be affected. Those with small incomes will be. This is not hard to work out.
nath @ #304 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 8:19 pm
dunno, you seem to be struggling pretty bad
Darn @ #293 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 9:16 pm
Antony Green.
No, not a part pensioner. There is such a thing as the Seniors and Pensioners Tax offset. Under the current system an aged pensioner has to earn over around $35,000 before they pay tax.
nath @ #307 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 9:19 pm
Come on, it was a credit toward tax paid by taxpayers so that it wasn’t taxed twice.
If the shareholder doesn’t pay tax, you are wanting the govt to hand over company tax to them.
Ridiculous. Should never have been that way.
there is a difference between the welfare system and the tax system. Assets are not counted under the tax system only income. i mean this is basic stuff.
Nath: ‘I have not voted since 2007’
So ‘all care, no responsibility’ then?
I’d rather listen to someone who accepts their collective/community responsibilities.
Mind you, it’s of a type with a view that taxpayers money should be given to people for taxes they Haven’t had to pay
nath @ #304 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 9:20 pm
If they earn that much, they can stand to lose a thousand or so. As a DSP, I have to live on 21000 a year. Which I manage to, barely.
Anyway, your commentary is essentially spurious because you are using the old Liberal trick of concentrating your focus on the rare exception to the rule that Labor are wanting to change. 99% of those affected by the proposed change would not be in that boat. They are, in the main, wealthy SMSF Self Funded Retirees.
Bemused, the point is that many aged pensioners have been subject to the current system and will suffer a big decrease in their income. Why not go after other targets? harder targets than aged pensioners? if the tax refund gets really huge they fall out of the SAPTO anyway. It seems clumsily designed to hit pensioners on low incomes. perhaps they dont understand their policy.
If you are on a DSP and had $30,000 in shares you would lose a couple of grand. how would that feel?
Considering all the other loopholes and tax rorts out there. anyway ive had enough. good luck to you all
The count in Batman seems stuck on 55.8% counted for a long time ?
I think the overall results from both the SA election and Batman are a positive for the ALP. Both elections gave electors the chance to try for a third party approach and in both cases the third party option was rejected.
At best the Federals Libs can hope to gain one seat in SA by having a popular state government at the time of the next election, but most like it will do nothing for them.
The greens have fallen, NX has fallen, Cory Bernadi was a no show. Overall this firms the ALP as the go to choice, at the Federal Level, if you’re not happy with the status quo.
Where have all the Greenies gone
Long time.e passing……
Let’s hope he’s right C@t.
The turnout in by-elections generally is not more than 70% to 75%. So the remaining vote needs to go massively to the Greens for them to overtake the ALP. It is not exactly rocket science.
William says 111,857 enrolled in Batman.
dave
Mostly pre-polling and postal to go, so probably most of the rest will be counted over the next few days.
Greensborough Growler says:
Saturday, March 17, 2018 at 9:28 pm
Where have all the Greenies gone
Long time.e passing……
oh, the lulz, the lulz…
nath @ #315 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 9:25 pm
Boo hoo… they are lucky to have been receiving the gift for so long.
Reality has caught up.
How many postal votes was there supposed to have been?
nath @ #310 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 9:27 pm
I don’t think I would because the earnings from those shares would put me below the Tax Free Threshold. Which Labor raised.
Apparently, the Batman electorate support Bill Shorten’s view that Adani needs to stand on it’s economics.
But hang on Bill’s only been saying exactly the same thing about Adani since at least June 2016. You can’t possibly get away with that sort of flip flopping of making exactly the same point using the exact same phrase for 21 months. It’s just so opportunistic.
You know like taking the cowards way of playing small target and not announcing major economic reforms that creates losers in a very vocal minority the week before a major by election…
Raaraa @ #323 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 9:29 pm
Yep, Ta.
tax free threshold is $21,000, so good luck with that. anyway i dont care ive got plenty of cashola. I just care about pensioners. I had a grandma once. shoot me.
Greensborough Growler @ #313 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 9:28 pm
Pegasus told us she is never deterred! So it will be back to the Cut and Paste grind again.
I think there is obviously a positive message for the Liberals in SA. The fragmentation of the Right-leaning vote has abated somewhat. This has to be good news for them.
At the same time, the defeat of the G’s in Batman is an excellent result for Labor. The attrition of Labor support to the faux-progressives has been arrested.
The Greens would need 50% plus 2240 of the postals to overcome the lead that Kearney has.
Good evening all,
According to Sky the greens have officially conceded Batman.
Cheers.
Bhathal has conceded..
Very gracious speech from Alex Bhathal who says it was an “honour” to run against Ged Kearney and says people told her during the campaign that whichever way it went “we’ll have a strong progressive woman representing us in this seat”. #Batman
At best the Federals Libs can hope to gain one seat in SA by having a popular state government at the time of the next election, but most like it will do nothing for them.
Much more likely that not having an old Labor government in Adelaide will increase Labor’s chances of increasing their holdings if the redistribution creates a Lib marginal within range.
It’s pretty hard to see Steven Marshall being a boost to Trumble.
RDN congratulates Labor and Kearney, says they have a big responsibility #auspol #batmanvotes
An aged pensioner with 30,000 telstra shares, or about $100k worth, is very badly advised. The price has been going south for a year and the dividend is down from 15.5c to 7.5c
Unless of course he or she has millions hidden away elsewhere.
Labor volunteers who worked so hard on the Batman by election campaign are stamping their feet and shouting for Ged Kearney, the nurse who became a national leader and will be the next MP in the Australian Parliament. #BatmanVotes
sprocket_ says:
Saturday, March 17, 2018 at 9:36 pm
Bhathal has conceded..
Very gracious speech from Alex Bhathal who says it was an “honour” to run against Ged Kearney and says people told her during the campaign that whichever way it went “we’ll have a strong progressive woman representing us in this seat”. #Batman
Democracy is a great leveller and a great teacher….
The pensioner will still get the dividend paid by Telstra, about 15c a share, they will not get the cheque from the ato if they have not paid any tax.
The alp removed the grandfathered section of the child payment so all recipients were treated equally.
This has been an ru community service .
I’m thrilled for Ged Kearney, she is a person of substance and intelligence and will make a real contribution to the national debate. Unlike the dud she’s replaced. Well done Ged.
Future workplace relations minister in a Shorten govt.
Good. That makes the margin nearly 2700. Pretty solid.
nath @ #324 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 9:34 pm
Well, there you go. DSP = $21000 and I certainly wouldn’t be making another 21000 from the income raised by owning $30000 worth of shares. So not going to be affected by Labor’s policy, in that I will not be paying Income Tax. As far as losing a small cash back on no Income Tax, I think I could live with that, so as to contribute to the bulk of the money being taken from wealthy SMSF Self Funded retirees for Budget Repair. I thought the Liberals were for Budget Repair?
Henry says:
Saturday, March 17, 2018 at 9:40 pm
I’m thrilled for Ged Kearney, she is a person of substance and intelligence and will make a real contribution to the national debate. Unlike the dud she’s replaced. Well done Ged.
Future workplace relations minister in a Shorten govt.
Hear hear!!!
She marched in front of those defaced corflutes of Kearney, along with her leader.
I’m sorry to say this but Bhathal can naff off with her cries of honour and that Kearney’s a strong progressive woman representing the seat.
#sickmakinghypocrisy
Hi Ruawake. 🙂
The pensioner with 30,000 Telstra shares have had their savings savagely cut by Coalition mismanagement, in particular the botched NBN cementing aging technology nobody wants – just so Malcolm can FIGJAM on how he ‘virtually invented the Internet in Australia’ cf A.Abbott, 2013
Rua:
Good to see you again! I hope all is well with you.
Ruawake @ #341 Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 9:39 pm
Ru, great to see you. How is your health?