Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor continues to dominate on voting intention, though few seem impressed by its stance on Adani.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, up from 53-47 last time. Primary vote numbers will be with us later. Also featured are Essential’s monthly (I think) leadership ratings, and they find Malcolm Turnbull little changed at 41% approval (up two) and 41% disapproval (on one), but Bill Shorten improving to 37% approval (up four) and 44% disapproval (down two). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-26, compared with 42-25 last time.

Other questions relate to Adani, on which 30% favour the Greens’ position, 26% favour the Coalition’s and 19% favour Labor’s, though it would be important to see the question wording on that one. Other findings related by The Guardian are that 42% support and 39% oppose company tax cuts; that regulating energy prices had 83% support, an “Accord-style partnership” 66% support and boosting Newstart 52% support; and that same-sex marriage is supported by 65% and opposed by 26%. Essential Research’s full report should be with us later in the day.

UPDATE: Full report here. Primary vote gains for the major parties at the expense of other/independent, with the Coalition up one to 36% and Labor up three to 38%, with the Greens down one to 9% and One Nation steady on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1025.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,546 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Zoidlord says:
    Tuesday, March 13, 2018 at 1:36 pm
    Shifty Rex still whinging

    I wouldn’t say that Rex is shifty Zoidlord. Naive and stupid are the adjectives I would use. A person who is totally unable to grasp the simple notion that a party has to win government first before it can start making changes.

    Fortunately the Labor leadership does understand that and is doing a very good job of mapping a path back to power. THEN they can do something about the god awful mess the Liberals have created, while exposing this Lib-Lab nonsense for the bullshit it really is.

  2. Nicholas says:
    Tuesday, March 13, 2018 at 1:36 pm
    19% favour Labor’s
    Yes but which of Labor’s many positions on Adani do this 19% of respondents support?

    Could the 19% even accurately describe Labor’s position?

    Could Labor even accurately describe its position?

    The position is that Adani is a stick which the Blue Tories and the Crypto Tories takes turns to bash Labor.

    There is no mine. There has been mine. There will be no mine. But there will be grief for Labor, especially of the Cryptonites have anything to do with it.

  3. The negative messaging re tax is straight out of Howards handbook of buying elections. It’s unsustainable and needs to be called out.

    Nice straw man you’ve put together there.

    Where do you get the idea that none of the reduced tax expenditures will be redirected to services? Did you just make it up?

  4. How sad are the Greens Political Party fanboys in their response to progressive policy announcements from Labor like this one?

    The desperation to diminish a very progressive roll back of a rort is met just shows this stooges for the Tory lackies they are.

    And that photo of the Darebin campaign team. What a miserable bunch they are.

  5. I am anxiously confident of a Greens win. We just need the Greens to win to help stop the insidious spread of neoliberalism.

    Labor made their bed. The bed contains coal and Transurban but no Member for Batman. Alas.

  6. If this dividend imputation refund policy is implemented, it makes sense that low-income individuals currently invested in companies paying fully franked dividends would move into assets with unfranked returns, because those assets would be relatively undervalued compared to the fully franked dividend-paying shares.

  7. F^ck you Cormann.
    I wish I had the money to have to worry about this sh!t.
    Discussing who gets what food on the table, while others do not even own a table. Bastards. Someone had me a some knitting needles. I need to practice for when the revolution comes.

  8. Practicality @ #204 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 1:54 pm

    How sad are the Greens Political Party fanboys in their response to progressive policy announcements from Labor like this one?

    The desperation to diminish a very progressive roll back of a rort is met just shows this stooges for the Tory lackies they are.

    And that photo of the Darebin campaign team. What a miserable bunch they are.

    Not as sad as the Lib-Lab policy of indefinite detention with added torture for good measure.

  9. Just heard Scott Morrison on the car radio re the superannuation tax repair. It is apparently the most abominable injustice since – I don’t – Emperor Nero did something really, really bad, like burning Rome and blaming the Christians.

    But seriously, that’s the message people will hear, repeated endlessly, sometimes actively boosted in the media. Many retirees and people still working will worry about their super. The message that they’d have to retire with about $1 million or more (I haven’t had a chance to work it out, but only very well-off retirees will be affected) won’t get through if the Government can help it. We will hear this sort of thing for every proposal by Labor to repair the budget and clean up the shambles left by Howard and Costello.

    Labor needs to have its counter-strategy, particularly simple messages, ready. Do people really want to pay more tax so that millionaire retirees can pay less?

  10. Someone spelt it out with crystal clarity earlier today.

    Hooray! But it wouldn’t be the same as Labor’s “crystal clear” position of last week.

  11. Rex Douglas @ #200 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 1:51 pm

    bemused @ #197 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 1:41 pm

    Nicholas @ #196 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 1:36 pm

    19% favour Labor’s

    Yes but which of Labor’s many positions on Adani do this 19% of respondents support?

    Could the 19% even accurately describe Labor’s position?

    Could Labor even accurately describe its position?

    Someone spelt it out with crystal clarity earlier today.
    You Greens do seem to suffer from cognitive difficulties when you deliberately don’t want to understand something.

    The people are awake to all of Shifty Bills positions on Adani.

    ‘All’, where the relevant number is ‘one’.
    Couldn’t be easier.

  12. Just dropped by the banking RC live feed.

    Hayne is cranky. I read he doesn’t suffer fools and counsel for NAB made an application that he thought should have been made earlier.

    Got a blast.

  13. https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/will-changing-its-offshore-detention-policy-cost-labor-government,11289

    Labor won’t adopt a socially responsible policy on refugees until it wins another election off the back of the human suffering and misery enabled by the current policy. On the face of it, that makes sense — you need to win elections to enact actual change after all, right? Well no, sorry it’s not that simple. That kind of position not only takes a rather dismissive view of what the average voter thinks or how our democratic system works but is increasingly out of step with the majority opinion on the issue. Labor is implying they can live with torturing refugees, albeit uncomfortably, as long as they win an election. Then they will (probably) stop torturing them afterwards.
    :::

    As Adam Richards told IA:

    “I’ll keep calling this out: this issue is this generation’s “stolen generation”. I will not have it ever said when our kids look back and go, ‘Mum and Dad, what did you do?’ I’ll never ever let it be said that we all just stood back and did nothing.”

    We all need to keep calling this out and one day our children will hold us to account for what we did, as individuals and as a nation.

  14. GOP Strategist Rick Wilsons latest column regarding todays House Intelligence Committee decision

    The Walls Are Closing In on Trump

    House Intelligence is now officially an oxymoron. Nunes’ “investigation” has been an example of Washington at its worst, a pure exercise in protecting Donald Trump, and a low point for the Republican Party’s reputation as the party of national security. The committee refused to interview key players in the drama, failed to seek campaign, government, intelligence community and corporate records that would have led to places that Team Trump doesn’t want them to go.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-walls-are-closing-in-on-trump/?via=twitter_page

  15. “Labor needs to have its counter-strategy, particularly simple messages, ready. ”

    ALP can go with the completely rational message that the Libs, over time, have completely and utterly fwarked up the Budget at a structural level.

    So badly that there will in fact be some pain that has to be spread around to fix the problem and put us on a more sustainable economic footing going forward. That pain mainly , but not exclusively (hey thats life people), to be inflicted on those who can afford it and have had LOTS of benefit from a broken system so far.

  16. Dame Edna (ne Adam Carr) did his usual “the Greens are full of ex-communists and Trots!” on his FB with regard to the Tassie election. It must be tough still fighting the Cold War when someone who is 40 in 2020 was pre-pubescent when the Soviet Union collapsed.

  17. Michael Brull, a member of the Greens:

    https://newmatilda.com/2018/03/12/bill-shorten-waffles-adani-labor-pocket-big-coal/

    The ALP’s ‘on-again off-again’ position on the Carmichael mega-mine is entirely consistent with the party’s recent history, writes Michael Brull*.
    :::
    If Shorten ever does stop waffling, remember what happened last time the ALP took on Big Coal. Remember what happened when they tried to just get a fair cut of Big Coal’s profits.

    When it came to picking sides in 2010, Shorten didn’t pick our side, and he didn’t pick the side of the planet.

  18. Good afternoon all,

    Labor was the target of the same hysterical rhetoric over negative gearing that it is being hit with today.

    Labor survived that and it will survive this.

    Re Adani. Labor PV has gone up 3% and personal ratings for Shorten have significantly improved. Not a huge blowback on labor.

    Cheers.

  19. Rex Douglas says:
    Tuesday, March 13, 2018 at 2:01 pm
    Practicality @ #204 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 1:54 pm

    How sad are the Greens Political Party fanboys in their response to progressive policy announcements from Labor like this one?

    The desperation to diminish a very progressive roll back of a rort is met just shows this stooges for the Tory lackies they are.

    And that photo of the Darebin campaign team. What a miserable bunch they are.
    Not as sad as the Lib-Lab policy of indefinite detention with added torture for good measure.

    There are two parties that profit from the policy of indefinite imprisonment of refugees. There are the Blue Tories, who use it to parade their capacity for cruelty. And there are the Greens, who use it parade their capacity for blaming Labor.

  20. PhoenixRed

    Loving Rick Wilson’s work. Devin Nunes is in a world of trouble. This partisan report ain’t gonna save him. And the word that he is on signal intelligence with Carter Page is definitely something I feel is accurate

  21. Pegasus says:
    Tuesday, March 13, 2018 at 2:12 pm
    Michael Brull, a member of the Greens:

    Green… Crypto Tory, taking up the cudgel against the political agents of the working class. Nothing new here.

  22. I differ from Dr Carr. He sees Trots. I see pretenders. I see the sons and daughters of the bourgeoisie indulging in their favourite family past-time – hating Labor and praising themselves for it.

    They are the fake news of Australian politics.

  23. ‘We’ve lost all credibility’: GOP House intel member contradicts his own party’s Russia probe conclusion

    House Intelligence Committee member Rep. Tom Rooney (R-FL) on Monday admitted his panel has “lost all credibility” after waffling on whether or not he accepts his party’s conclusions on the Russia probe.

    “Two things: From what I said last week is we have gone off the rails and now we’re a political forum for people to leak information to drive the day’s news. We have lost all credibility and we’re going to issue probably two different reports.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/03/weve-lost-credibility-gop-house-intel-member-contradicts-partys-russia-probe-conclusion/

  24. “Labor was the target of the same hysterical rhetoric over negative gearing that it is being hit with today.”

    In that context would be interesting to see if there is any Treasury or PBO advice around as to the effect of the ALP’s announced policy. 🙂

    Libs have been caught bullshitting before. 🙂

  25. Imacca @2:08PM. You are right, but rationality on its own won’t win the argument. Labor is handicapped because it’s enemies control the loudest media voices. It’s going to require some creative thinking to get the message across.

  26. guytaur,

    You might find this video from the start of the RAC rally interesting.

    https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1678998518804978&id=100000845378792&_rdr

    Anti-ALP banners appear behind Greens candidate Alex Bhathal at a refugee rights rally

    In the lead up to the Batman federal by-election, a refugee rights rally was held in Northcote, Melbourne. After speaking at the rally, the Greens candidate, Alex Bhathal was set to to march. A Greens photographer alerted Ms Bhathal to anti-ALP banners being placed behind her, and other Greens politicians. Ms Bhathal asked that those banners not appear behind her, and the other Greens politicians.

  27. bakunin says:
    Tuesday, March 13, 2018 at 2:28 pm
    guytaur,

    You might find this video from the start of the RAC rally interesting.

    Labor-hating in broad daylight….

  28. bakunin @ #232 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 2:28 pm

    guytaur,

    You might find this video from the start of the RAC rally interesting.

    https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1678998518804978&id=100000845378792&_rdr

    Anti-ALP banners appear behind Greens candidate Alex Bhathal at a refugee rights rally

    In the lead up to the Batman federal by-election, a refugee rights rally was held in Northcote, Melbourne. After speaking at the rally, the Greens candidate, Alex Bhathal was set to to march. A Greens photographer alerted Ms Bhathal to anti-ALP banners being placed behind her, and other Greens politicians. Ms Bhathal asked that those banners not appear behind her, and the other Greens politicians.

    While giving a wink and a nod, and then marching with them behind her?
    Further dastardly Greens behaviour.

  29. “Libs have been caught bullshitting before.”

    The old joke – how do you know when a “Liberal” is bullshitting?

    Further to Labor getting its message across, an article I linked in the previous thread yesterday about right wing climate denial looks relevant (my emphasis):

    “And well before Trump, it was clear that “free markets” are, in political practice, a slogan, not a core [conservative] value. The slogan is a weapon to be deployed against policies that favor conservative’s enemies, but never against their friends, just as deficits are used to scold Democrats who want to spend money but never Republicans who want to cut taxes.

    https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/11/10/16627256/conservatives-climate-change-persuasion

  30. WTF !!!

    Does the Queensland Labor Party Education minister know that Santos, QGC and Origin Energy are writing the syllabus for year 11 and 12 students? https://t.co/urE2GEMOyu #auspol #csg #education #qldpol @QLDLabor pic.twitter.com/dradPSBEuh

    — GasBanNSW (@gasban345) March 11, 2018

    COAL SEAM GAS WORK UNITS
    SPONSORED BY ORIGIN, QGC AND SANTOS
    Coordinated by Queensland Minerals and Energy Academy

    Syllabus : Biology Years 11-12
    Key concepts

    A variety of mechanisms results in continual change at all levels of the natural world.

    Climate change ? Well it’s always changing innit.
    The Joy of CSG eh.

    a. Why is coal seam gas considered to be an important energy source for Queensland’s future?
    b. What are the benefits of coal seam gas?
    c. What are some of the challenges of extracting coal seam gas?
    d. For each of the challenges, propose a solution.

  31. I see the sons and daughters of the bourgeoisie

    Bo-Bos.

    Bourgeoise Bohemians. Nice inner urban lifestyles, university educated, professional/knowledge/creative economy careers, hipster, ‘Right’ thinking.

    And utterly contemptuous of actual working class suburbanites.

    Fuck them.

  32. Re Bakunin, quoted by Bemused @2:32PM. Is it possible that the banners are the work of ESJ style agents provocateurs? Or is that just a wacky conspiracy theory?

  33. Boerwar @ #165 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 12:33 pm

    Goodness me, P1 you just took the goal posts and shifted them to the other side of the oval!

    You probably think that because your arguments are incoherent, but you can’t see why they don’t make sense.

    But my point is the reverse: biodiversity (plant genes aside) has almost no impact on Dutch agriculture.

    And this is just nonsense. Try reading the link I posted, which is specifically about problems that have arisen from trying to separate Dutch agriculture from the wider ecological biodiversity on which it depends.

    Or you could read these for more general information on the interdependence of biodiversity and agriculture:

    https://www.cbd.int/agro/importance.shtml

    http://www.wentworthgroup.org/docs/Biodiversity_and_Agriculture.pdf

    http://www.soilsforlife.org.au/why-is-biodiversity-important-in-agriculture

    https://www.bioversityinternational.org/why-agricultural-biodiversity-matters-foundation-of-agriculture/

    And of course, this interdependence becomes even more critical in a warming world:

    https://phys.org/news/2017-07-climate-biodiversity-warmer-world.html#nRlv

    Almost irrelevant to my point, the Dutch have developed some novel techniques to this end. For example, some traditional potato growing areas in Australia have been abandoned because of difficulties with nematode control. To address this, the Dutch build a low dyke around affected fields and flood them for long enough to eradicate the nematodes. These temporary wetlands do a good job of annihilating productivity-sapping biodiversity. As you drive past them you will notice another effect – they attract large numbers of waterfowl. Tsk tsk.

    It is not irrelevant. The Dutch have amongst the highest level of water pollution from agricultural-related runoff in the EU. This is a real problem for them. Do you think these two could be related?

    https://www.iamexpat.nl/expat-info/dutch-expat-news/air-and-water-quality-netherlands-eu-concern

    Much of the higher value produce is grown in totally artificial extra-biodiversity farming systems – as close to zero biodiversity as the Dutch can make it.

    And you think this is a good thing? It isn’t. Unless of course your main aim is to simply maximize short-term profit at the expense of the long-term environment.

    My point is that Dutch agriculture is phenomenally productive by avoiding (plant genes aside) biodiversity impacts on agriculture to the greatest extent possible. The practical evidence is that isolating agriculture from biodiversity generates increased productivity, not reduced productivity.

    And my point is the Dutch model cannot be scaled up without courting ecological catastrophe. The Dutch have essentially screwed up their own country, and are busy now trying to find ways to fix it. Why would you want to let them screw the rest of the world? Who is going to pay to fix that?

    The Dutch have essentially been borrowing from the future by trading biodiversity loss for economic gain. But like any ponzi scheme, the only way this can go on is if you can get more suckers to join.

    But wait, there’s more. Currently these systems are still largely based around, and limited to and by, vascular plants. There can be almost no doubt that four existing trends will converge to feed the extra billions of people: cheap renewable energy, developments in farming non vascular plants (ironically based on research vastly speeded up in the search for biogas), GMO technologies, and nano technologies. It looks increasingly probable that ONLY way to feed the extra billions in the pipeline is by way of mass produced foodified non vascular plants.

    The Dutch apparently see an economic opportunity. But others see a potential ecological catastrophe.

    Results from biogas experiments indicate that one of the potential massive benefits for food production is that non vascular plant growth can be 24/7.

    And so we come back to the main question, which is not “how”, but “why”? Why would you want to turn the planet into a zero-diversity ecological wasteland, with its concomitant vulnerability to catastrophic failure s the climate warms?

    Is it just the money?

  34. Imacca @2:08PM. You are right, but rationality on its own won’t win the argument. Labor is handicapped because it’s enemies control the loudest media voices. It’s going to require some creative thinking to get the message across.

    Yes, and I’m confident that they do.

    Labor haven’t just shot their mouths off over this. The timing of the release to match the first day of the Bank’s hearings at the FSRC shows that. The good news will be released on days with clear air.

  35. ratsak

    How ’bout ‘Bohobo’ , tack a bo onto Boho ( bohemian) .Or re-purpose Bubo=a swollen inflamed lymph node in the armpit or groin. 🙂

  36. ‘Just heard Scott Morrison on the car radio re the superannuation tax repair…….’ get used to it.
    It’s going to get more and more rabid.
    This is a gift for the tories and plays straight to the general perception amongst punters that the ALP a ADDICTED to tax and you can’t TRUST ’em with money.

    All crap, but it’ll play on an endless loop until polling day.
    Unless of course the Labor party has a strategy?
    Hmm, not confident.
    They’ve fallen for this shite before.

  37. Notice that Labor announces a new policy, and the greens are total crickets on it, instead I see more Adani posturing, got nothing to say when Labor does something you may agree with, well i’m sure you will find something impure….
    If only the Greens went back to fighting the real enemies, then real things can be done!

  38. SERIOUS economists have been bitterly complaining about all the structural problems in our tax system for years — the lates ALP policy release (which appears to be part of a coordinated raft of such policies) is another of those that is aimed at fixing these structural issues.

    I have a SMSF but I whole-heartedly agree with this policy stance even if I lose some benefits in the long run.

    The idea that people get ‘tax refunds’ when they pay no actual tax is appalling.

    The idea that holding shares, in effect, gives you a govt (i.e. taxpayer) handout on top of any interest or dividend is also appalling.

    This whole exercise has bred a class of financial advice/advisers who have the capacity to root the system and milk billions from health, education etc. Yet we have a govt which is quite happy to take money away from low income earners and those on penalty rates without any compunction at all.

    The thing is: those with big share portfolios have a voice and raise their champagne glasses to their own ingenuity. The rest …. well they can go off and cry in their beers as they struggle to feed themselves, or pay for their heating or whatever.

    The inequity is appalling.

    If you DO own shares you have an option to do something different. If you’re on a basic wage you just have to suck it up.

  39. Nicko @ #243 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 3:10 pm

    Notice that Labor announces a new policy, and the greens are total crickets on it, instead I see more Adani posturing, got nothing to say when Labor does something you may agree with, well i’m sure you will find something impure….
    If only the Greens went back to fighting the real enemies, then real things can be done!

    The Green dastards follow Weber’s “ethic of good intentions” whereby they salve their conscience by bleating endlessly about things they don’t like but pay no heed to outcomes (or lack of them).
    Labor on the other hand follows Weber’s “ethic of responsibility” where it works to achieve positive outcomes and takes responsibility for them.

  40. So why are we reduced to watching just one hour of highlights of Australians winning gold medals at the Olympiad winter competition currently being held in South Korea?

    Did you see the Opening Ceremony, follow the excitement as our athletes in their green and gold competed in snow-boarding, skiing and other winter sports? What about all that news about what is going on, all the breathless newscasts from the lucky reporters/broadcasters who got the good gig? The interviews with the medal winners, and the ones who don’t win, the family coaches, the crowd members?

    You must know? You must have seen the fantastic coverage of these athletes? No?

    What, there is no live coverage, reporters, fanfare, ceremonies, or even just results for all those people in Australia and the surrounding places that take our feed?

    Why?

    Nah, it would not be because these athletes have disabilities would it?

    Oh, it is the PARAlympics, not the OLYmpics? Channel 7 is not interested and no one else has the feed?
    We are taking highlights from another countries coverage because, well, Aussies are not interesting in seeing men and women with bits of their bodies that don’t work properly winning more gold medals than the able-bods at the real Olympics, don’tchknow?

    How ignorant of me.

  41. A thing I find ironic about this tax/refund is that there is much complaining about companies not paying tax but here when they do we give it back!

    It sounds like good policy to me!!! 🙂

  42. The idea that people get ‘tax refunds’ when they pay no actual tax is appalling.

    Well, unless it is an earned income tax credit – extra income for low paid labour – which is in practice like a negative income tax rate.

  43. LU

    Yes, that’s it. A negative tax rate.

    My income from superannuation is tax free, my small share dividends and bank interest is below the tax-free threshold and I get a refund of the franking credits.

    Just a handout from the tax office.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *