The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, up from 53-47 last time. Primary vote numbers will be with us later. Also featured are Essential’s monthly (I think) leadership ratings, and they find Malcolm Turnbull little changed at 41% approval (up two) and 41% disapproval (on one), but Bill Shorten improving to 37% approval (up four) and 44% disapproval (down two). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-26, compared with 42-25 last time.
Other questions relate to Adani, on which 30% favour the Greens’ position, 26% favour the Coalition’s and 19% favour Labor’s, though it would be important to see the question wording on that one. Other findings related by The Guardian are that 42% support and 39% oppose company tax cuts; that regulating energy prices had 83% support, an “Accord-style partnership” 66% support and boosting Newstart 52% support; and that same-sex marriage is supported by 65% and opposed by 26%. Essential Research’s full report should be with us later in the day.
UPDATE: Full report here. Primary vote gains for the major parties at the expense of other/independent, with the Coalition up one to 36% and Labor up three to 38%, with the Greens down one to 9% and One Nation steady on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1025.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/15/batman-byelection-shorten-seeks-to-reassure-pensioners-scared-by-labor-tax-policy
“With the Batman byelection in play, the Greens have declined to give Labor any political cover for the proposed shift. Greens leader Richard Di Natale has signalled the party has concerns “about the possible unintended consequences”.
The Greens have been on the back foot in Batman about pensions, having done a deal with the Coalition to reverse Howard government changes to the pension assets test, which saw 100,000 people lose the the payment.”
————————————
I’m not one of the usual Greens bashers here, but this really points up what a bunch of political ‘same as all the others’ weasels they are. Interestingly, that deal that changed the pension assets test did a lot more damage to generally ordinary people (not people with large incomes but none of it taxable) who were trying to eke out a bit more comfortable lifestyle than they could get on the pension. But we did not hear the squeals from the self-interested rich on that because it did not affect them – only middle and lower middle class savers. And all to save a few dollars on the old age pension – far less than this rort.
By the way, I was not affected by that change at all and don’t know anyone personally who was. But it seemed totally unfair to me, especially as people had organised assets, often highly illiquid assets like property, to meet what were the rules. At least with this current proposal nobody is being kicked off the pension or is otherwise being screwed for social service benefits they would otherwise have and need.
Jackol, I perfectly understand your equity argument. As I said that requires you to narrow your comparison to only dividend income. The second you widen the scope to comparing the treatment of dividends to any other form of income the equity argument is clearly reversed.
I didn’t support the changes for other reasons, but the more whining about it I see (and I don’t include you in that) the more I’m coming around.
Any reasonable equity argument has to include equity to those who get no benefit one way or the other. On that basis Labor’s position is very strong.
The argument for removing imputation altogether is a separate argument. However removing imputation altogether actually makes the argument for reducing Company Tax. And from a purely realpolitik pov you’d hear the screaming in the next galaxy.
By treating dividend income in the same way as any other form of income and the company tax paid as analogous to a business cost as the Labor position does in no way destroys the argument for removing imputation altogether. That position has equity and taxation consistency arguments to support it very well. Imputation also has wider aims than merely the ‘double taxation’ aim. These are barely effected by Labor’s policy.
There are other ways of construction, but the idea that somehow dividend income is of such a unique quality that it should enjoy a taxation benefit unavailable to any other form of income is pretty hard to sustain. And pretty much impossible to sustain on an equity argument alone.
Shorten said there would be a massive scare campaign and of course hes right.About time the wealthy squealed.Theyve had it too good for too long.Anyway I thought the age of entitlement was over.
Funny it seems to be the wealthy that always scream the loudest.
Poor people don’t own media companies Steve.
steve davis @ #2053 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 10:29 am
They have a voice the poor don’t possess! 🙁
Brian Klaas
@brianklaas Verified account
When Nordstrom pulled Ivanka’s clothing line, Trump tweeted immediately and angrily denounced them.
When America’s closest ally is the victim of a chemical weapons attack on its soil by the Russian government, Trump has not tweeted anything.
Think about why that might be.
ratsak says:
With the added bonus for the rich is having all the senior reporters live next door.
BK @ #1896 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 11:32 am
There were moans in some quarters that he was just another crusty conservative appointed to the HC.
Years ago, around the time of his appointment, I met his brother who made a few comments that stuck in my mind. Based on those comments, I am not at all surprised by what we are seeing. He will not put up with any nonsense.
“Donald Trump thinks HE has a high IQ? Don’t make me laugh. He’s as intelligent as a bucket of rocks.”
– Stephen Hawking
Pension asset test reform supported by the Coalition and Greens:
https://newmatilda.com/2015/06/23/why-greens-were-right-do-pension-deal-scott-morrison/
Greens fact sheet: https://greensmps.org.au/articles/retirement-income-fact-sheet
Bemused, my point is about fairness. Some people continue to get the benefit of the credit others don’t.
Perversely, it appears to disadvantage the poorer people.
It appears Jackol has woken up to this as he explained in 2:03.
Hi Barney,
All good. Like I said in my post:
“But, sure, if William says it is not allowed, then that’s good enough for me.”
Pegasus says:
Thursday, March 15, 2018 at 2:13 pm
Talking about the likelihood of war….
Kim Beazley and L Gordon Flake:
One of the coldest northern winters for many years proved a piece of good fortune for the Winter Olympics in South Korea, but it may be the last happy moment on the Korean Peninsula for a long time. A war there is a distinct possibility. Some form of military action to disrupt North Korean nuclear weapon developments is even more likely.
Diplomacy may have run its course. We are at the most dangerous moment since the Korean War armistice in 1953. A war today could have unimaginable consequences: a catastrophic death toll, missile strikes beyond the peninsula, the first nuclear bombs to be used in conflict since Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
The risk has long been real – and in 2018, with Donald Trump in the White House, it is alarmingly high. Events unfolding on the Korean Peninsula and in Washington are pointing in a direction that is difficult, but essential, to contemplate.
This is all totally unreal. There is almost no prospect whatsoever of nuclear war eventuating in Korea or anywhere else. Nuclear weapons have little or no offensive utility who used against another nuclear-armd State. Therefore they will not be used. This is as true today with respect to Korea as it has ever been.
The excellent thing about nuclear weapons is that because they exist, war between the great powers cannot be commenced. If a war cannot be commenced, it cannot be waged.
The essential things are relevant, effective capability and readiness. These exist. They give rise to the tension that we experience as “nuclear peace.”
Nuclear weapons have very great defensive utility, as can be seen in the case of North Korea. They have acquired (or are about to acquire) offsetting military power. They have been able to make significant diplomatic gains – and may son make comparable economic gains – following their apparent mastery of nuclear and ballistic technologies.
Of course, this is an affront to US pride, but really changes nothing at all with respect to the strategic position of any other power. If anything, the status quo on the Korean Peninsula has been consolidated by these developments.
MSNBC’s Maddow lays out ‘troubling inconsistencies’
“Last night, we reported that Democrats on the Intelligence Committee had unexpectedly released a 21-page document in response to the Republicans shutting down the Russian investigation in the House,”
“The committee has learned that candidate Trump’s private business was actively negotiating a business deal in Moscow with a sanctioned Russian bank during the election period,” the report read.
“So there appears to have been an attempted assassination by chemical warfare on British soil,” Maddow explained. “But we are in this bizarre situation where our own president’s silence and mealy-mouthed hemming and hawing on this subject is in the foreground, while his own secret dealings with the Russian government are starting to unfold and starting to be exposed by a congressional investigation that his Republican allies are trying to shut down.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/03/msnbcs-maddow-lays-troubling-inconsistencies-trump-says-publicly-investigators-know/
daretotread. @ #1923 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 11:52 am
So just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not out to get you?
Have I got that straight?
PeeBee, if it’s raking in $5-8 Billion a year, I don’t think it’s poor people missing out the most. Life wasn’t meant to be easy.
The MSM cherry pick a few pensioners who will be worse off and blow it out of all proportion just to save their wealthy mates from paying their fair share if tax etc,using the “how hard I’m going to have it” line.Meanwhile the poor without a voice will be shit on again if this policy doesn’t go through.
meher baba
“And, to be truly fair, a photo of someone (former politician, public servant, academic, etc) sitting happily overlooking the harbour who is on a large defined benefit pension (which unlike the retirement savings of the lady with shares, was almost entirely paid for by employer contributions) and who is at zero risk of an incoming Labor Government doing anything whatsoever to cramp their tax free lifestyle.”
Defined benefits operate on how much the employee contributes too, if an employee contributes minimal or zero then their pension is greatly reduced.
Defined benefit funds can also have a surplus where returns are high, like in the 80s, 90s and early 00s, when this happens future earnings are greater than future payouts and the surplus keeps growing. As it is a defined fund there are difficulties in distributing the surplus.
I’ve seen funds recommend a change from defined to accumulation because of the surplus arguing that members would get a better return where all funds are distributed to them.
The Crypto Tories …
– line up with the LNP on pensions
– express no support for increases in the minimum wage
– oppose efforts to redraw company tax that is now going unpaid because of the LNP’s loopholes in the dividend imputation system.
The bourgeoisie stick together on tax and wages!
DTT, I may be stupid, but at least I’m self aware
Have a look at this ad that Xenophon has just put up.
https://vimeo.com/259994480/e21a5d31ee
@Pegasus
Ahahahahah.
That’s if you have any assets at all, and if you don’t it means shit all.
The fact is, the social security reforms led the way to give the OK to LNP to be discrimination against those on the Disability Pension, The Greens are ignoring this fact.
Those on the Disability Pension will not likely be able to have large amount of assets, gain new assets or even buy a house.
Peter Martin on pension asset test reform:
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/why-labor-opposed-the-age-pension-deal-the-greens-took-20150616-ghpdlr.html
@ Briefly – you’ve got a few ‘typos’ in there, I’ve fixed them up for you.
– don’t express support for increases in the minimum wage in exactly the way that Briefly wants them to, despite the FWC obviously not giving a shit about fair work conditions and just chucking Labor’s submission in the bin.
– Support efforts to redraw company tax that is now going unpaid because of the LNP’s loopholes in the dividend imputation system, whilst saying that minor ammendments may be justified in order to mitigate unforeseen impacts. Noting of course that Labor have since come out to agree with the Greens that these impacts would be bad, and agree that action must be taken.
guytaur @ #1951 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 12:22 pm
For those who don’t remember, Dr Kay Patterson is a former Lib Senator for Victoria and Peta Credlin started off as a political staffer in her office.
imacca @ #1956 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 12:26 pm
The Green dastards will be doing their level best to see this does not happen.
People rightly object to the ability of companies to arrange their affairs so they pay no tax. The loopholes in the dividend imputation system facilitate the same result. The earnings of companies are effectively untaxed because the tax they pay is rebated to their shareholders.
Company earnings should be taxable.
The reforms are intended to make sure this happens. Hopefully there will be more reforms to the tax system, which will mean that tax relief can be provided to PAYG taxpayers.
Scott Ludlam:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/15/our-government-is-boiling-the-water-we-swim-in-but-we-can-still-jump-out
Voice Endeavour says:
Thursday, March 15, 2018 at 2:53 pm
yada yada…the Cryptonites will find a way to facilitate the LNP’s policies…never fear.
RT may or may not be blocked in the UK, but we will still have our own local Putin-o-phone.
Even Grog, who used to live here is sinking the slipper in to SA
“Why South Australians are older, poorer and on their way interstate”
The good news is the healthcare sector is booming. 😀
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/mar/15/south-australia-dragged-down-by-demographics
briefly @ #2076 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 2:56 pm
Actually Briefly, nothing changes in regard to the taxation of companies with Labor’s proposal. The real difference is whether shareholders are simply relieved of paying taxation on after tax company profits, as was the case with the original Keating scheme, or whether some shareholders actually get given the company tax. In one instance, the tax is always paid. In the second instance the government actually gives the tax back to certain people, many of whom are quite well off but arrange their finances under other Howard superannuation freebie laws so that they have no or insufficient taxable income to actually have to pay any tax at all.
Blow me down. Scott Ludlam uses his column to promote Greens as fighting the good fight and Labor as hopeless.
I’m shocked I tells ya.
Next week from Ludlam – how Labor’s imputation changes smash poor widdle self funded retirees living by the waterfront in working-class Rozelle that the Greens aim to capture to win Grayndler.
TPOF @ #2030 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 12:57 pm
Fine TPOF
So long as you are consistent. RT and the BBC are both state owned propaganda organisations (as is the ABC).
So yeah I have no problem provided you or others do not then cry censorship in Russia.
However it is probably a sad day for everyone when Brits cannot access RT or Russians BBC.
Also is the Russians seize British Assets you would not mind.
What if they banned British teams from the World cup. I feel sure they could find (or manufacture) doping allegations sufficiently strong to warrant banning.
I am assuming that 23 Brits will be sent home from Russia so consular services will be difficult during the World Cup. Those British fans had better behave too.
@briefly – so what has happened is:
Labor: We have a proposal that does X.
Greens: Yes, we agree that X sounds great, but won’t your proposal also do Y? Y sounds bad. Lets find a way to do X without doing Y.
Labor: Yes, it would do Y as well and we agree that Y is bad. lets do X and Y, but then also do Z, where Z counteracts Y.
You cannot sit there and claim that this is The Greens opposing Labor. That is nonsense.
Vogon Poet @ #2067 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 1:47 pm
Could have fooled me.
You are about as self aware as the average garden worm (just after being snatched by a kookaburra.
Voice Endeavour @ #2084 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 3:06 pm
I haven’t heard the Greens say ‘we agree that X sounds great’. Perhaps they did say it – but in a soundproof room.
@Voice Endeavour
So at what point the Greens have suggested an alternative?
What’s your point Peg? Or are you just carping it up and muddying the waters?
BK
“MT says NBN all stuffed up and is Bill Shortens fault.”
The labor NBN was costed as a FTTN, its implementation plan was pretty much in place in 2011, during its process unacceptably high tender prices were rejected.
The LNP won office in 2013 and changed the business plan, the roll out, the technology and most of the board including senior staff.
The NBN plan we have now is the LNP Turnbull NBN and has been since 2013. If the NBN is stuffed as Turnbull says the LNP and Turnbull have stuffed it, they have owned and managed their LNP NBN since 2013.
The main concern over their mismanagement and lack of responsibility over their NBN plan is that they cannot be trusted with large infrastructure projects and seek to shift blame.
And can we trust them with their similar plans for Snowy II and the inland rail. Would we see Snowy II downgraded so it does not achieve the power generation and storage yet at an increased cost as per the NBN. Would we see inland rail down graded to a slower service with resulting less customers yet at an increased cost as per the NBN, a expensive fancy of Howards loss making inland rail project.
DTT, do you regret not heeding the advice about the brown acid ?
zoomster @ #2002 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 1:04 pm
I don’t use Facebook much. I remember friending Frank and surprise, surprise, it didn’t take long before he unfriended me. I have only ever friended one other person from PB AFAIR.
So who were those I upset and what was the supposed abuse?
I think some people just think anyone who expresses the least disagreement is abusing them. Sad.
“Those British fans had better behave too” English soccer fans working in Siberian salt mines. I can’t see anyone complaining about that (except them, of course).
daretotread. @ #2083 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 3:05 pm
So it’s alright for the Russians to murder people on British soil using chemical weapons and knock off a few British passers-by as collateral damage (like their Syrian client state does) but we need to make sure that British citizens going to Russian’s corrupt World Cup get consular assistance when they get drunk.
Quite frankly, your defence of the corrupt, murderous criminal regime of Putin makes me sick.
VP, more wealthy people have tax liabilities that they can be paid for by credits.
Poor people don’t have tax liabilities.
PeeBee @ #2095 Thursday, March 15th, 2018 – 2:13 pm
Most poor people don’t have shares
“So it’s alright for the Russians to murder people on British soil using chemical weapons and knock off a few British passers-by as collateral damage ”
That is so00000 way not alright. Speaks to massive incompetence at an operational level if nothing else. The casualties other than the specific targets and the nature of the weapon used takes this almost into state sponsored terrorism rather than targeted “wet work” spy games /politics.
Question is, are daS Ruskies so up themselves that they dont care about that?
Have a look at this ad that Xenophon has just put up.
https://vimeo.com/259994480/e21a5d31ee
Bit of an improvement on the last one, a car repair company had a similar add, no bull.
was OK, but just like any other repair ad, catchy new gimmick.
DiNatale’s office has been inundated with green voters complaining they won’t be able to afford their next cruise, or pay the minimum wage au pairs