Ring in the new year with two months of accumulated news concerning preselections for the next federal election – not counting matters arising from Section 44, which will be dealt with in a separate post during the January lull in opinion poll news.
• After falling short in the Bennelong by-election, Kristina Keneally’s most immediate pathway to federal parliament is the Senate vacancy created by the resignation of Sam Dastyari. However, The Australian reports the position is being eyed by Tony Sheldon, national secretary of the Transport Workers Union, and Tara Moriarty, state secretary of United Voice – either in opposition to Keneally or in her absence, since it is not clear she would not prefer to await a lower house berth. The Canberra Times reports the looming creation of a third electorate for the Australian Capital Territory could present such an opportunity. Other possibilities mentioned for the new seat are Thomas McMahon, economic adviser to Bill Shorten; Taimus Werner-Gibbings, chief-of-staff to Tasmanian Senator Lisa Singh; Jacob Ingram, 23-year-old staffer to Chief Minister Andrew Barr; Jacob White, staffer to Fenner MP and Shadow Assistant Trade Minister Andrew Leigh; and Kim Fischer, former territory ministerial staffer and current communications consultant.
• Another soon-to-be-created seat has been central to factional convulsions in the Victorian ALP in recent months. As in the ACT, population growth has entitled Victoria to an extra seat, which is expected to be established in Melbourne’s booming and strongly Labor-voting north-east. The Construction Mining Forestry and Energy Union wants it to go to Jane Garrett, who recently failed in a bid to move from her state seat of Brunswick to the Legislative Council after losing a Left faction ballot. Garrett feared Brunswick would be lost to the Greens, in part because of the efforts of the United Firefighters Union, whose dispute with Garrett over a pay deal caused her resignation as Emergency Services Minister in 2016. In tandem with other “industrial Left” unions, the CFMEU has walked out of the Left, which is dominated by Senator Kim Carr, and sought an alliance with the Right, which looks likely to proceed with the blessing of Bill Shorten. This will mean an end to the long-standing “stability pact” between the Carr forces and the Right, which has protected members including Jenny Macklin in Jagajaga and Andrew Giles in Scullin. However, Shorten insists he will ensure no sitting members are threatened.
• With George Brandis resigning from his Queensland Senate seat to take up the popular posting of high commissioner in London, The Australian reports a big field of potential successors includes three names from state politics: Scott Emerson, the former Shadow Treasurer who lost his seat of Maiwar to the Greens; John-Paul Langbroek, a former Opposition Leader who remains the state member for Surfers Paradise, but was unsuccessful in the post-election leadership vote; and Lawrence Springborg, repeatedly unsuccessful state Opposition Leader who did not contest the election in November (who would presumably faces a difficulty in being from the Nationals). Also in the mix are Joanna Lindgren, who had an earlier stint in the Senate when she filled Brett Mason’s vacancy in May 2015, but was unsuccessful as the sixth candidate on the Liberal National Party ticket in 2016; Teresa Harding, director of the Queensland government’s open data policy and twice unsuccessful candidate for Blair; and Amanda Stoker, a barrister.
• Surf Coast councillor Libby Coker has again been preselected as Labor’s candidate for the Victorian seat of Corangamite, after winning a local party vote over Geelong businesswoman Diana Taylor by 116 votes to 39. Coker ran unsuccessfully in 2016 against Sarah Henderson, who gained the seat for the Liberals in 2013.
• Mehreen Faruqi, a state upper house member, was preselected to lead the Greens’ New South Wales ticket in late November, winning an online vote of party members by a margin variously identified as 1301 to 843, and 1032 to 742. The preselection took place against a backdrop of conflict between the more moderate environmentalist tendency associated with the parliamentary leadership and Rhiannon’s hard left base in New South Wales. Anne Davies of The Guardian observes that Rhiannon will face “intense pressure to step down early”, so Faruqi can fill her vacancy and raise her profile ahead of the election.
Labor has completed preselections for the brace of Liberal-held seats where it is now reckoned to be competitive in Western Australia, after the resurgence in its fortunes in the state – all of which have gone to women:
• Hannah Beazley, policy adviser to Mark McGowan and daughter of Kim Beazley, will run against Steve Irons in Swan, which her father held from 1980 to 1996 before seeking a safer refuge in Brand. Hannah Beazley ran unsuccessfully for the state seat of Riverton in 2013.
• Lauren Palmer of the Maritime Union of Australia has been selected to run against Ken Wyatt in Hasluck, winning out over the Left-backed Bill Leadbetter, a history lecturer who ran in the seat in 2016, and very briefly served in the state upper house earlier this year. This comes after the MUA threw its lot in with the now dominant Right (“Progressive Labor”) faction in pursuit of its oft-thwarted ambitions to establish a parliamentary power base, together with the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union.
• Decorated police superintendent and Left faction member Kim Travers has been chosen to run against newly anointed Attorney-General Christian Porter in Pearce. Sarah Martin of The West Australian reported Labor’s administrative committee knocked back a nomination from Ann O’Neill, a campaigner against domestic violence whose estranged husband shot her and murdered her two children in 1994, who had not been a party member for the required period and was not granted a waiver.
• A little further up the pendulum, Melita Markey, chief executive of the Asbestos Diseases Society, will run against Michael Keenan in Stirling, and Melissa Teede, former head of the Peel Development Commission, will run against Andrew Hastie in Canning.
Bushfire. Bill @ #2878 Tuesday, January 9th, 2018 – 8:16 am
Never. A speedy replacement is the only thing that’s needed. And nothing but pure obstructionism and protest until then.
poroti
I was just looking at this website https://tmnsimulation.com.au/flexsim/ which is for a product that I used – with professional, experienced input – to simulate an extremely complex factory process from long lead time raw material supply, raw materials inventory, intermediates manufacture and storage, mixed model manufacture with a finite number of unique tools, critical high temperature curing times, random put-away storage to accumulate orders, item retrievals in order to arrange orders and stuff containers. All of these have inherent variations and different process capacities and, as in all cases, are subject to interruptions and breakdowns.
The simulation can impress various randomised distributions of downtime instances and duration (including histograms of real life experience) into the model for as many processes as you choose and when run at high speed for, say, a period of three months each parameter is recorded on a timeline and all delays and throughputs are recorded and charted.
We found a number of issues when first running the simulation so we changed the process design and certain capacities and ran it again to find that we had not only validated the capacity of the whole factory we had demonstrated its robustness.
When the factory was completed it bore out our confidence.
This type of simulation is widely used these days.
I don’t think NSW Transport did anything similar.
Some South Sudanese scaring people with gospel music
Tukoki Pharoah By Khamis Kenedy SOUTH SUDAN
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfCA8ybepkc
.
Just as scary up north
‘Nubian Music From North Sudan”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WNkXDG8fzw
BK
I don’t think they go much further than a chat with their party donors. Thanks for the link.
poroti
Yep – mine very imperfect! The area Monaco to the Italian border (and north of them) have changed ‘hands’ many times over centuries. With actual locals in areas on both sides of the existing French-Italian border words in either language well understood.
Ha! Years ago, I did a ‘hypothetical’ as part of the Indi campaign. I played the current Minister for Immigration, and Mirabella the previous one.
The hypothetical was built around a modern day Ned Kelly – a migrant boy with a criminal history.
Sophie’s final speech was about the slackness of immigration policy, and how it had resulted in dodgy types such as this boy getting into the country.
I was able to come back with ‘according to the chronology we’ve been given, he came in under your watch’.
…even though it was a hypothetical, she was fuming!
We did a drive from Syria throughTurkey for a week or so in in ~1988 and I remember one stretch of cliff side road where there were many shells of buses and trucks over the side.
a r @ #3148 Tuesday, January 9th, 2018 – 8:48 pm
I agree. In principle, the acceptance of the outcome of an improper process because it is the outcome is to legitimise corruption.
a r, you might be interested with this recent Q&A with Tom Steyer who, you probably well know, is driving an impeachment campaign. He’s a fascinating rich guy, more here on wiki, as well as a summary of him in the youtube clip (click on show more). He talks about the urgent need for impeachment, which is discussed at the end of the interview wrt its political implications, the whats and wheres of the Dems, and also fields questions about his own possible future candidacy.
30 mins
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMu9q4OBTc0&feature=youtu.be
ItzaDream @ #3155 Tuesday, January 9th, 2018 – 9:16 pm
My paragraphs are not meant to be a sequitur. I should say Steyer gives no indication that he is acting because of a belief in Trump’s illegitimacy, but because of the damage the presidency is doing to the USA.
Lovey
From what I’ve heard described and seen on TV the s-w coast of Turkey very scenic.
What suggestions are there that any material number of votes were “improper” at the 2016 election?
Regardless of how you feel about Trump he is what the system legitimately put up. Advocate to change the system, sure. Don’t just buy into the “we don’t like him so we’re going to pretend he’s illegitimate”. That’s the Tony Abbott way.
“Greetings from Cape Bridgewater which I had never heard of until this morning.
Lots of wind turbines and fur seals”
– You cannot remember the famous photograph of Andrew Peacock and Shirley Maclaine taken by the paparazzi at Bridgewater Beach ? Maybe late 70’s. He had a big holiday house there, now owned by Wesley College and used for school camps.
– You would have driven past my house. Best beaches are Murrells which is part of Bridgwater Bay but towards Cape Nelson lighthouse and Whites which is at the back of Cape Bridgewater towards Discovery bay.
Tony Wright – a writer at The Age is from Portland (Heywood) and often has articles reminiscing on his childhood as well as current issues facing the area.
Visit again in November for the Upwelling festival. People drive the 3.5 hrs from Melbourne to Port Fairy easily, but not many drive that extra 40 minutes onto Portland. The town needs the tourists.
Jackol
Strongly agree.
Jackol @ #3158 Tuesday, January 9th, 2018 – 9:26 pm
Jackol, the sentence is free standing, and defined by ‘In principle’. It deliberately makes no reference to Trump, and I have already underlined that with an addendum.
CTar1 @ #3160 Tuesday, January 9th, 2018 – 9:34 pm
Who said that?
Who knew?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jan/08/great-barrier-reef-rising-temperatures-turning-green-sea-turtles-female
Jackol:
While I don’t want to speak for AR, my own view is that the Electoral College is undemocratic and the country needs genuine and wholesale electoral reform.
Perhaps that’s what AR is referring to by way of improper processes.
My mother had some kind of childhood association with the people who owned the original Henty House at Portland (her father had been the Methodist Minister at Port Fairy). I remember exploring the buildings when we visited there.
Jackol
agree
Trump is what the system threw up and removing him will be seen by many as a coup.
Apparently there is just such a scene in the series 24 where they use insanity to remove an unwanted President.
Life imitating art!
Confessions I think you are quite right, but it is probably a bit over the top for us out here to start telling the yanks how to fix there mess.
If all the states made their electoral colleges proportional rather than winner takes all it would help a lot.
CTar1
” “we don’t like him so we’re going to pretend he’s illegitimate”.
.
Exackery what the Repugs did when Obamarama was first elected.
Confessions @ #3164 Tuesday, January 9th, 2018 – 9:41 pm
Before this runs away with itself, a r didn’t use that expression, I did.
The confusion is probably because of the compounding of replies with the blockquote system.
I wanted to do two things. To point out that I disagreed with B B that an outcome -however dubious – should be accepted because it is the outcome.
Secondly and separately, I wanted to link to Tom Steyer and his impeachment.
That the two were likely to be conflated I anticipated and added an addendum to clarify that in a separate post.
My apologies for any confusion. It’s easy to see how comments veer off towards reader’s bias. i wish I’d just gone to bed. Like now.
But it’s okay for Russians in Russian troll farms to do so on social media?
Get a grip. This is a small section of the internet dedicated to electoral politics. It’s not Facebook distributing fake news to billions of people worldwide FFS!
Itza:
Thanks for clarifying. Yes, I too find the quote system unclear when people are quoting multiple commenters, hence I try not use it.
But I still think the US needs constitutional reform so it can abolish the Electoral College.
Itza
“Who said that?”
The second last sentence of the post you were referring to – Jackol @
Tuesday, January 9th, 2018 – 9:26 pm.
‘ItzaDream says:
Tuesday, January 9, 2018 at 9:40 pm
Who knew?’
Just about everyone who has more than a passing interest in turtle ecology:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature-dependent_sex_determination
Confessions @ #3171 Tuesday, January 9th, 2018 – 9:54 pm
Confessions, also, I wanted to say how sad it was reading about your dog loss, and the subject of irreplaceability. My thoughts fwiw are that I agree that no one dog can replace another dog. It’s their beautiful individuality that is so much the love. But for me, the dog ‘spirit’ is universal, and while a new dog can’t replace *that* dog, their common spirit is so allied that that emptiness in your heart is easily filled. We usually have two, and older and a younger. What price chair legs and cushions.
poroti
Abbott never got the simple concept that it is the individual who has the confidence of the majority of the house that forms government.
Itza:
Thank you, that’s very kind.
Bw
These turtles?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mRCe5L1imxg
CTar1 @ #3172 Tuesday, January 9th, 2018 – 9:58 pm
Actually, it was the second last sentence *you* were referring to, and in which Jackol used quotations, without anyone or reference to anyone I can find having said it.
If he was referring to a concept, then the quotes were inappropriate.
It’s getting to be Chinese whispers.
Trump got elected. Get over it.
No amount of psychoanalysis, pseudo-science, quoting of dodgy polls (from the land of Polls-R-Us), fantasizing about imminent indictments that are never gonna happen, “Insider” hotlinks, groupthink and plain old-fashioned daydreaming about the 25th amendment kicking on anytime soon is going to change the fact that Trump got the runs on the board where and when it counted.
Confessions @ #3164 Tuesday, January 9th, 2018 – 8:41 pm
Yes, I would definitely agree with that. Though also no, not the point I was making at the time.
poroti @ #3168 Tuesday, January 9th, 2018 – 8:48 pm
Not even close, really. The best the Republicans could dig up for not liking Obama were lies about him being a Kenyan Muslim. Which shouldn’t matter even if it were true (the Muslim part, anyways).
On the other hand with Trump you have very credible allegations of sexual assault from multiple women. You have video evidence of him bragging about having serially molested women. You have video evidence of blatant lie after blatant lie. You have zero financial transparency, with absurd amounts of public funds being funneled into his properties every time he takes a day off to go golfing (hello, emoluments clause?) and at least a reasonable probability of actually illegal financial activity. You have a history of overtly racist comments and sympathies and appointing known racists and white-supremacists (or family members; anti-nepotism laws, anyone?) to high-level positions. And I haven’t even gotten to Russia yet, but there’s also video evidence of Trump publicly encouraging Putin/Russia to hack Clinton’s emails to go with whatever Mueller happens to uncover.
Trump is illegitimate because he’s a petty criminal acting purely out of self-interest who also fails to measure up to any basic standard of human decency. Either one of those is a sufficient to render him illegitimate. That I personally dislike the man doesn’t factor. Though I certainly do dislike the man.
To imply that the justification(s) for hating Trump is/are as flimsy as the justification(s) for hating Obama is…I’m not sure precisely what. But definitely something. Something inaccurate and reality-denying.
Get a dozen women saying Obama molested them, or video evidence of him being a Muslim from Kenya or something, and then I’ll credit your equivalence.
ItzaDream –
Nonsense. I was paraphrasing, and summarizing what I see argued explicitly and implicitly on here with respect to Trump 100 times a day.
Your subsequent claim that your statement should have been interpreted completely devoid of context is … interesting. I’m happy to leave that there, but please don’t pretend that any reader reading what you wrote would not have come away with the impression that you were firmly of the view that Trump’s election (in the context of the conversation and what you quoted) was ‘an improper process’ and accepting it would be accepting corruption.
Itza
That’s exactly what I believe he was doing. I wasn’t confused at all by Jackol ‘naming’ the concept.
Bushfire:
The Trump presidency is a legitimate scandal and quite likely a crime and/or corruption matter. You may not like the fact that it is discussed here often as well as in the msm, but it’s a reality and I’d suggest you’re just going to have to get used to it.
The fun and games has only just begun.
An amazing light show here on the NSW mid-North Coast.
Massive lightning, deafening thunder. Blackouts (thanks Gladys).
That one shook the house. Plates literally rattled!
Bushfire
I thought you would have gone north into the sticks equipped with self-contained solar/battery kit expecting just this possibility.
😀
Bushfire:
I’d kill for rain. We haven’t had decent rain in yonks.
CTar1 @ #3182 Tuesday, January 9th, 2018 – 10:22 pm
My understanding was that quotation marks ( ” ) were for exactly that, quoting. A concept or paraphrasing, to use Jackol’s expression, would be better served imo by the use of a single ( ‘ ), and you have just done so nicely.
Whatever. This is fuelling unnecessary ill ease. There’s the old saying, which I apply to myself because I am letting myself down here, do you want to be right, or happy.
😉
I like to think Trump is the punishment the USA deserves. They should have to suffer through every single day of his whole four years without any hope of redemption.
They made their bed, they lie in it and they shouldn’t get to change the linen halfway through because it is stained with pyss and wind.
Itza – I’m well over the non-argument about bugger all too!
Ptmd
‘Direct’ is good.
😀
Jackol @ #3181 Tuesday, January 9th, 2018 – 10:21 pm
Thanks Jackol, I fully accept that you and maybe other readers have made that connection. I can only reiterate that my initial statement was clearly defined by the first two words in the sentence “In principle, ..” and as I have already made very clear, I had already anticipated the possible false association of ideas and made an additional post pointing out the two paragraphs were not to be as a “sequitur” before these semantics highjacked the blog.
For the record:
1. In principle, the acceptance of the outcome of an improper process because it is the outcome legitimises corruption. (There’s been no debate on that.)
2. I posted a terrific youtube of an interview with Tom Seyer who is driving a call to impeachment, albeit 30 mins. (I don’t think anyone watched it.)
Malcolm Turnbull’s next move for fielding difficult questions?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/01/09/talk-to-the-cardboard-cutout-thai-prime-minister-wont-be-taking-any-more-questions/?tid=sm_fb&utm_term=.33c9a94f6f25
‘fess
I saw this on TV sometime during the day. It did look bizarre!
Turnbull might use a cutout of someone else instead of his own?
He could go off for a couple of hours and then comeback to contradict the effigy.
Dutton and Hunt seem to be filling in nicely re African crime gangs in Melbourne. And seeing as Hunt is as shallow as MT you wouldn’t notice anyway!
shallow = hollow
‘fess – ‘Shallow’ as well.