Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research closes its account for the year by recording a slight improvement in the Coalition’s position, and a generally more positive outlook than in recent years.

The final Essential Research result for 2017 (actually released yesterday, but who’s keeping score at this time of year) has the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, reducing the Labor lead to 53-47. They’re also up two on the primary vote to 37%, with Labor steady on 38%, the Greens down one to 9% and One Nation steady on 7%.

Essential closes the year with a particularly interesting series of supplementary findings, one of which is that only 29% approve of tax cuts to medium and large businesses, with 54% opposed. On political donations, overwhelming support is recorded for immediate disclosure of donations (84% versus 6%) and politicians’ meetings with companies donors and unions (82% versus 5%), very strong support for a ban on foreign donations (67% to 16%), capping donations at $5000 (59% to 20%) and banning donations from companies and unions (58% to 22%), but opposition to banning donations altogether and replacing them with public funding (30% to 50%).

Another series of generalised questions on how things have been going over the past year suggest Australians are feeling a good deal more positive than they have at any time since this annual series began in 2013. In particular, there are greatly improved perceptions on the state of the economy; neutral but improved ones on respondents’ personal financial situations; greatly improved, but still somewhat negative ones on how “the average Australian” has fared; and a view on “Australian politics in general” that remains highly negative, but is still greatly improved. Included for the first time is a question on “the planet”, with 20% consider to have had a good year versus 42% for bad.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,526 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  4. The last time environmentalists made truly significant gains (some time LAST CENTURY) it was by way of Richo.

    Which is why the Greens Party, the ever lasting ten per centers, loathe Richo with a passion.

  7. My experience with “whatever it takes” is that the requestor wants the requestee to do something which is best done away from prying eyes.

    If they simply want to more phone banking done, or more doors knocked, then that’s what they ask for. There us no need for them to hide behind euphemisms or platitudes .

  8. poroti @ #2449 Tuesday, December 26th, 2017 – 6:36 pm

    bemused

    When Richo spoke of the ‘whatever it takes’ attitude ‘ethical bounds’ was pretty plainly not part of the deal.

    Well Richo being Richo, I have no doubt you are right.

    But stripped of Richo’s ethical void, it is a term I have often applied at work and elsewhere. I have pushed myself and others harder to meet a deadline for example.

  9. Given Xmas took precedence yesterday I’m not sure how many Bludgers took in this NY Times article.
    A few interesting quotes:

    “There was an overriding concern about equity,” said Mr. Cobb, the Wharton professor. “Firms would try to set pay so that the gap between the security guard or administrative assistant and senior V.P. wasn’t as great as you might expect, essentially by paying lower- and middle-skill workers more than they were probably worth on the market.”

    In reading the company’s old annual reports, you get a sense that its executives thought of the jobs created and the wages paid as a source of pride and achievement. On the first page of most years’ annual reports was an accounting of how many employees the company had in the United States and worldwide, and the total pay and benefits they received.

    A 60-cent-an-hour raise this year negotiated by her union, the SEIU United Service Workers West, helped. Kodak in its prime was not unionized, though in that era when organized labor was more powerful over all, managers deliberately kept wages high to try to prevent the company’s workers from forming one.

    https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/09/03/upshot/to-understand-rising-inequality-consider-the-janitors-at-two-top-companies-then-and-now.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&smvar=eg17&_r=0&referer=

    Interesting contrast between the thinking in management these days.

  11. steve davis – no, its an aggregate of their recent polling, done so they have a large enough sample to break it down by State and various demographics. No new data collected.

  14. To prove that Rex has nfi about the NSW Labor Party, he appears to not even realise that the leader of the State Opposition is from the Left of the party. Hardly a continuation, or adherent, of the Neoliberal dogma, but, you know, people DO continue to take what Rex states seriously, as if a numpty from the inner suburbs of Melbourne has a clue.

  16. C@tmomma

    ” the leader of the State Opposition is from the Left “. Which in NSW terms means Genghis Khan may possibly been a bit harsh 😉

  19. Western Australian shoppers are tightening their belts, with the growth of the state’s post-Christmas retail spending tipped to be well below the rest of the country amid a tough economic climate.

    The post-Boxing Day sales are one of the biggest retail events of the year. But in Perth, where queues once snaked around the block, just handfuls of people were waiting patiently for the department store giants to open their doors.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-26/boxing-day-sales-slump-wa-retail-spend-slow/9286142

    Who in their right mind would queue up for hours just to battle it out against the crowds for things you can buy cheaper online?

    I took advantage of Boxing Day sales by using 30% off codes to buy bras, DVDs and cookware. And all without having to fight hordes of people, and still being able to watch the cricket. Retail is doing it tough but I’m not sure the answer is to offer these ‘day only’ mega sales. If the info in this article is correct then people just aren’t buying it. Literally.


  20. …
    The subbie went rogue. Shirt not mentioned in article, but its $850 price is starring on Twitter.
    ..

    It has all the gravitas of a year 10 Science Project!

    The deterioration of the age was a Christmas topic of discussion; along with where to move subscriptions.

  21. Douglas and Milko @ #2467 Tuesday, December 26th, 2017 – 7:40 pm

    This has probably already been posted, but this article on a Jobs Guarantee on the ABC is well worth reading, and may provide a workable solution to the current high levels o unemployment / underemployment / wage stagnation.

    Newcastle Economist Bill Mitchell is getting some well-deserved exposure here:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-19/universal-basic-income-vs-job-guarantee/8187688

    Looks like Nicholas has got through to you! He is a Bill Mitchell acolyte.

    I am more of the mind that we should organise the economy to provide proper jobs to all who want to participate in the labour force. Keynes had a large part of the answer to this.

  22. bemused @ #2470 Tuesday, December 26th, 2017 – 7:56 pm

    Douglas and Milko @ #2467 Tuesday, December 26th, 2017 – 7:40 pm

    This has probably already been posted, but this article on a Jobs Guarantee on the ABC is well worth reading, and may provide a workable solution to the current high levels o unemployment / underemployment / wage stagnation.

    Newcastle Economist Bill Mitchell is getting some well-deserved exposure here:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-19/universal-basic-income-vs-job-guarantee/8187688

    Looks like Nicholas has got through to you! He is a Bill Mitchell acolyte.

    I am more of the mind that we should organise the economy to provide proper jobs to all who want to participate in the labour force. Keynes had a large part of the answer to this.

    A ‘cut through’ issue for Foley perhaps.

  23. Germany has surplus,
    China has 10 million new jobs created from January to September and LNP is furthering their purpose of Australia to become a backwater Desert island.

  25. Hi Bemused,

    I am actually not a “convert”. Unlike our Nicholas, I am not religious, and take Mitchell’s ideas onboard as an important factor to be added to the mix of possible solutions to our current economic and social problems.

    I think Nicholas, misrepresents Mitchell’s and I think other Poll Bludgers have commented that Bill Mitchell is nowhere near as nutty as his prophet / supporter on PB.

    I am more of the mind that we should organise the economy to provide proper jobs to all who want to participate in the labour force. Keynes had a large part of the answer to this.

    I think this is what Mitchell is actually saying. The jobs created will be real jobs – providing services that people actually need – and they will be properly paid. Not far from Keynes at all.

    I am really aware of this problem working in science. So many people with enormous expertise in science find themselves unemployed – our current political system neither values nor funds them. These people do not want to sit at home getting depressed, and so they spend their meagre resources still doing science. All they get is a desk at a research institution, but they produce very real research results, until complete poverty forces them out.

    If we could provide these people with Jobs Guarantee research jobs, with a decent wage, the collective research that these people generate would drive our society a long way forward – new smart materials, new ways of generating energy – the sky is the limit.

    The wage these people would earn would then support local services – supermarkets, childcare, dentists, doctors.

    Society would become far more “productive”. And this is a very Keynesian point of view, albeit updated for the 21st Century.

  26. From memory as well as being the title of the book, Richo also uses it to describe the day Unsworth and Bruvver Ducker, sacked Geoff Cahill and imposed Richo as the NSW General Secretary. It can be argued that this was the day institutionalised corruption entered the NSW ALP

    An indication of the meaning of the phrase

  28. At the end of the last week Turnbull was “Renaissance Man”; now based on a summary of news polls from the three previous months he is done like a dinner.

    And the press wonder why they are treated with contempt.

  30. Yes, a Job Guarantee is a very important element of what the federal government ought to be doing to widen the concept of what paid work can be, and to maintain true full employment at all times. Professor Bill Mitchell is Australia’s most perceptive and valuable macroeconomist. Dr Steven Hail is also excellent.

  32. Poroti
    Evan Whitton used to argue that the demographics of NSW meant that it should have a permanent Labor government. Labor losses power when the leader is not strong enough to control the underlying corruption in the party and it becomes a public scandal. This often occurs when a long standing leader leaves power.
    There is some evidence for Whitton’s argument if you look at NSW history since 1941 when the first post-Lang Labor government was elected.
    In 1965, after 4 strong premiers Renshaw lasted 12 months with scandals including SP betting, milk quotas and the speaker showing his penis to his secretary
    1988 Unsworth succedded Wran and lasted 12 months with scandals including the justice minister selling pardons
    2011 Carr and Iemma were barely controlling the ship until Iemma was rolled and the Beagle Boys took over the state.

  33. Australia’s superannuation system is stuffed because of the vandalism by Howard and Costello to convert it into a tax shelter for high income earners.

  35. Rex Douglas @ #2471 Tuesday, December 26th, 2017 – 8:04 pm

    bemused @ #2470 Tuesday, December 26th, 2017 – 7:56 pm

    Douglas and Milko @ #2467 Tuesday, December 26th, 2017 – 7:40 pm

    This has probably already been posted, but this article on a Jobs Guarantee on the ABC is well worth reading, and may provide a workable solution to the current high levels o unemployment / underemployment / wage stagnation.

    Newcastle Economist Bill Mitchell is getting some well-deserved exposure here:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-19/universal-basic-income-vs-job-guarantee/8187688

    Looks like Nicholas has got through to you! He is a Bill Mitchell acolyte.

    I am more of the mind that we should organise the economy to provide proper jobs to all who want to participate in the labour force. Keynes had a large part of the answer to this.

    A ‘cut through’ issue for Foley perhaps.

    Macro-economic policy is almost exclusively a Federal Government responsibility and there is comparatively little states can do.
    By contstantly attempting to undermine Labor, your precious Greens are maintaining the present Federal govt.

  36. This is a very good primer on the problems with Australia’s superannuation policy.

    Yeah right. Tell that to the Americans who don’t have access to the superannuation guarantee we do.

    The way major U.S. companies provide for retiring workers has been shifting for about three decades, with more dropping traditional pensions every year. The first full generation of workers to retire since this turn offers a sobering preview of a labor force more and more dependent on their own savings for retirement.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/i-hope-i-can-quit-working-in-a-few-years-a-preview-of-the-us-without-pensions/2017/12/22/5cc9fdf6-cf09-11e7-81bc-c55a220c8cbe_story.html?utm_term=.22d200a8e0be

    It seems to be a Greens thing to overlook the hardships faced by others in other countries.

    I for one am very thankful for what we have here in Australia. Does this mean I think we can’t do better? No. But I’m not prepared to throw baby out with the bathwater either.

  37. Douglas and Milko @ #2474 Tuesday, December 26th, 2017 – 8:20 pm

    Hi Bemused,

    I am actually not a “convert”. Unlike our Nicholas, I am not religious, and take Mitchell’s ideas onboard as an important factor to be added to the mix of possible solutions to our current economic and social problems.

    I think Nicholas, misrepresents Mitchell’s and I think other Poll Bludgers have commented that Bill Mitchell is nowhere near as nutty as his prophet / supporter on PB.

    I am more of the mind that we should organise the economy to provide proper jobs to all who want to participate in the labour force. Keynes had a large part of the answer to this.

    I think this is what Mitchell is actually saying. The jobs created will be real jobs – providing services that people actually need – and they will be properly paid. Not far from Keynes at all.

    I am really aware of this problem working in science. So many people with enormous expertise in science find themselves unemployed – our current political system neither values nor funds them. These people do not want to sit at home getting depressed, and so they spend their meagre resources still doing science. All they get is a desk at a research institution, but they produce very real research results, until complete poverty forces them out.

    If we could provide these people with Jobs Guarantee research jobs, with a decent wage, the collective research that these people generate would drive our society a long way forward – new smart materials, new ways of generating energy – the sky is the limit.

    The wage these people would earn would then support local services – supermarkets, childcare, dentists, doctors.

    Society would become far more “productive”. And this is a very Keynesian point of view, albeit updated for the 21st Century.

    I used to follow Bill but am less keen now that he seems to have gone off on a MMT frolic that Nicholas is so keen on. And yes, Bill is not batty like Nicholas.

  38. Oakeshott Country @ #2475 Tuesday, December 26th, 2017 – 8:26 pm

    From memory as well as being the title of the book, Richo also uses it to describe the day Unsworth and Bruvver Ducker, sacked Geoff Cahill and imposed Richo as the NSW General Secretary. It can be argued that this was the day institutionalised corruption entered the NSW ALP

    An indication of the meaning of the phrase

    You are kidding aren’t you?
    It might have been elevated to a new level, but it was there before Richo.

  39. The main thing we need to do with regard to superannuation is undo most of the Howard-Costello vandalism, especially the tax-free status of superannuation pensions and the still absurdly high contributions by high income individuals that are allowed concessional treatment.

  42. Steve777:

    I can accept we need to reverse the bastardry to super the Howard/Costello govt achieved and what the Turnbull/O’Dwyer mob are trying to achieve. But I won’t accept Nicholas’ nonsense that compulsory super is somehow evil and regressive.

  43. Tell that to the Americans who don’t have access to the superannuation guarantee we do.

    Compulsory superannuation was based on the false premise that the federal government might run out of money for pensions.

    As Dr Steven Hail pointed out, had compulsory super been designed to direct savings into activities that enhanced productivity and accelerated the transition to ecological sustainability, it could have been good. But it wasn’t designed to do that. All it really achieved was to create a captive market for the financial sector to rake fees from.

  44. “Australia’s superannuation system is stuffed because of the vandalism by Howard and Costello to convert it into a tax shelter for high income earners.”

    On super…the tax free status of earnings and pension from super after 60 was one of the greatest macro-economic fwark ups possible to be made. Massively undermines the revenue base as the population ages and a higher proportion of people who NEED things like medical services expect those services to be provided from that revenue base. 🙂

    I remember when that happened and the consensus in my workplace ( a university with a good super scheme most people engaged with) was that those arrangements would be completely unsustainable in the long term. The Libs now have a policy that only $1.6M or so ?? in super will attract that kind of tax treatment, but i think the ALP policy of concessional tax only applying to the first $75k of earnings is a better one for the country. Thats up to $75k disposable income BEFORE you pay any tax on it!! Pretty damn livable income that.

    And, because of that its actually better for superannuants. FFS, to live in a stable society with well funded public services, where we have the rule of law and hopefully some consideration for equality is FAR better than to be a cashed up oldie and scared all the time that the “have-nots” who haven’t got super to live off will make up the difference by breaking into your house, beating you senseless and taking your stuff. 🙁

    Super does need reform….just not the way the bloody Libs want which is to give better access to the spivs that are their donors by getting them on boards and giving them more access to the established housing stock to trade with.

  45. I believe that the income portion of superannuation should be fully taxable, like bank interest or income from part time work. A superannuation payment comprises in part a return of capital (like drawing down from a bank account, which is tax free) and part income. An actuary can determine the relevant amounts and they used to be shown on group certificates. Before the Costello vandalism, that’s how it worked. Before the first Keating reforms, those few fortunate enough to retire with Super took their benefits as lump sums to avoid tax on pension income.

    (Disclosure: I am a self funded retiree. I benefit from the Costello ‘reforms’ but I don’t see why I should be getting concessions and entitlements while Centrelink “clients” / victims are harried from pillar to post. I claim them of course but on attaining ‘self-funded retiree’ status I didn’t suddenly get the urge to vote “Liberal”.)

  47. @Nicholas

    Compulsory superannuation was based on the false premise that the federal government might run out of money for pensions.

    As Dr Steven Hail pointed out, had compulsory super been designed to direct savings into activities that enhanced productivity and accelerated the transition to ecological sustainability, it could have been good. But it wasn’t designed to do that. All it really achieved was to create a captive market for the financial sector to rake fees from.

    OK, so do you have a problem with Industry Super funds, which will allow me to retire with a decent standard o living?

    Or would you prefer that I throw caution to the wind, and wait for your economic revolution, despite the fact that I might die of lack of medical care and homelessness in the meantime?

    I mean, I might consider going down this path, for the benefit of future denizens of Planet Earth.

    But Nicholas, you promise nothing. So why should I support you, and do as you say?

  48. Imacca

    “Super does need reform….just not the way the bloody Libs want which is to give better access to the spivs that are their donors by getting them on boards and giving them more access to the established housing stock to trade with”.

    Are you referring to the spivs at Uni super ? The spivs that lobbied the Andrews state government to turn on the desalination plant. The spivs that have a 26 % stake and have seats on the board of Aquasure. The spivs that have negotiated a 30 year revenue stream from the state government financed by increased water fees / charges paid by ordinary Victorians ?

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