Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research closes its account for the year by recording a slight improvement in the Coalition’s position, and a generally more positive outlook than in recent years.

The final Essential Research result for 2017 (actually released yesterday, but who’s keeping score at this time of year) has the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, reducing the Labor lead to 53-47. They’re also up two on the primary vote to 37%, with Labor steady on 38%, the Greens down one to 9% and One Nation steady on 7%.

Essential closes the year with a particularly interesting series of supplementary findings, one of which is that only 29% approve of tax cuts to medium and large businesses, with 54% opposed. On political donations, overwhelming support is recorded for immediate disclosure of donations (84% versus 6%) and politicians’ meetings with companies donors and unions (82% versus 5%), very strong support for a ban on foreign donations (67% to 16%), capping donations at $5000 (59% to 20%) and banning donations from companies and unions (58% to 22%), but opposition to banning donations altogether and replacing them with public funding (30% to 50%).

Another series of generalised questions on how things have been going over the past year suggest Australians are feeling a good deal more positive than they have at any time since this annual series began in 2013. In particular, there are greatly improved perceptions on the state of the economy; neutral but improved ones on respondents’ personal financial situations; greatly improved, but still somewhat negative ones on how “the average Australian” has fared; and a view on “Australian politics in general” that remains highly negative, but is still greatly improved. Included for the first time is a question on “the planet”, with 20% consider to have had a good year versus 42% for bad.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,526 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. lizzie

    Gave me a little lol to see a bludger “identity” mentioned in relation to the scheme. Not sure how “our” TP would have seen it though.

    “The idea has its roots in 16th-century humanist philosophy. The political theorist Thomas Paine advocated a citizen’s dividend.”

  2. Oakeshott Country

    Such stories were hardy annuals in The Dirty Diggers UK papers, The Daily Mail etc. Made a change from ‘elfin safety’ gone mad, social security scroungers and immigrants

  3. poroti @ #2396 Tuesday, December 26th, 2017 – 3:36 pm

    Funnily enough the day before Cater the GG had an article with a headline saying “Thank the Romans Not the Christians” . In it the writer laid out all the bit and bobs of Roman celebrations that have carried over.

    Did you notice who the author was? Helen Dale if that name rings a bell. If not, try Helen Demidenko.

  6. As stated above, fake news. Here is a bit more filling out of the non-story:

    http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2013/12/03/3904218.htm

    A social media prank that declared Cardwell had banned Christmas lights this year has been shut down by the Cassowary Coast Regional Council.
    “It has gone viral all around the world, I have had phone calls from so many places you wouldn’t believe,” says Mayor Bill Shannon who says the council’s website was bombarded with emails about the ‘ban’.
    “At the Cassowary Coast we put up Christmas lights and have done so for decades and will continue to do so,” he said.
    The post on Facebook suggested the town had banned lights at the request of the local Muslim community and the fictional “Al Shalalah Mosque”.
    “There are no mosques in the whole of the Cassowary Coast region so I think they have just tried to find somewhere that is somewhat out of the way and create this huge ruckus about it,” says Cr Shannon.

  8. This is one that occasionally pops into my in-box
    Special prise for the first person picking 5 obvious mistakes
    I was defriended when I pointed out the issues to the wombat who sent it to me.

    I will try to post the attached picture which is a big clue

    Subject: 1907 Sir Edmund Barton Perhaps this is one email that needs to be forwarded until every Australian with a computer receives it.

    The year is 1907, over one hundred years ago….

    Sir Edmund Barton, Australia’s first Prime Minister, said on Immigrants and being an Australian in 1907:

    ‘In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an Australian and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else, for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an Australian, and nothing but an Australian… There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an Australian, but something else also, isn’t an Australian at all. We have room for but one flag, the Australian flag…. We have room for but one language here, and that is the English language… and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the Australian people.’

    Edmund Barton 1907

    Every Australian citizen needs to read this! KEEP THIS MOVING

  10. ‘In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an Australian and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else, for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an Australian, and nothing but an Australian… There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an Australian, but something else also, isn’t an Australian at all. We have room for but one flag, the Australian flag…. We have room for but one language here, and that is the English language… and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the Australian people.’

    And what of Australia’s indigenous population?

  16. Well, it’s a Teddy Roosevelt quote with ‘Australian’ put in place of ‘American’.

    And, of course, there was no Australian flag at the time or any official mechanism to be Australian rather than British. Barton wasn’t PM in 1907, but the text only says ‘Australia’s First Prime Minister’ without necessarily indicating that Barton was PM when he was supposed to have said it.

    But yeah, given it is all rah-rah Australia first it is an impressive troll to have it actually being a quote from an American.

  18. Nikki Haley announces $285 million cut to United Nations budget

    U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley announced Sunday that the United States had slashed the U.N.’s budget by more than $285 million for fiscal 2018.

    “The inefficiency and overspending of the United Nations are well known,” Haley said in a statement from the U.S. mission. “We will no longer let the generosity of the American people be taken advantage of or remain unchecked.”

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/nikki-haley-announces-285-million-cut-to-united-nations-budget/article/2644350

  21. Well done Jackol
    Barton’s little hobby had got the better of him by 1902 and he had “been persuaded” to go to the high court.
    As John Norton, no stranger to the bottle, claimed :
    “I charge you with being very frequently under the influence of drink ever since the [first] meeting of the federal parliament . . . Quite recently you came into [the] chamber so drunk you were scarcely able to stand. On another occasion, seeing your drunken, helpless state, the Speaker generously put an end to the painful scene!”

    It would have been an abuse of process for him to make such a statement as a Justice of the high court

  22. Oakeshott Country

    If it is not https then sometimes/often/usually it will not show up. I have on one occasion posted an http and it came up so ?

  23. It is absurd to think that Barton would have primarily and solely identified as an Australian. Before WWI it was mostly: 1st British, 2nd New South Welsh (or some lesser breed) and 3rd Australian

    The quote also indicates that Barton wasn’t racially motivated for it is an outrage to discriminate etc. Barton was one of the architects of White Australia and his speeches are full of discrimination. Indeed he fought the first election on the slogan “A continent for a people” not that dissimilar to “Eine Volk, Eine Reich” (fortunately he did not go as far as Ein Fuhrer

  25. I’ve just ordered some DVDs priority delivery via Amazon, and they reckon my order will arrive Dec 29.

    I will be surprised if this happens, but am keeping an open mind.

  28. You would expect a patriotic Australian to know that Barton weighed well over 130Kg and had the nicknames of “Tosspot Toby” and “Toby Tub”

    He died at the Hydro majestic in Blackheath while having a Turkish Bath
    130 Kg and saunas will often end badly.

    I recently spent a week-end at the Hydro and asked the receptionist if there was a plaque. She said that they all knew the story but weren’t allowed to talk about “his passing” ( when did dying become an obscene word?”

  29. Oakeshott Country @ #2427 Tuesday, December 26th, 2017 – 5:06 pm

    —
    She said that they all knew the story but weren’t allowed to talk about “his passing” ( when did dying become an obscene word?”

    Indeed! I have no qualms about referring to someone dying, having died or being dead.
    The passion for euphemisms seems to be just part of a cultural denial of death that has taken hold.

  30. Just caught sight of newspoll state polling and seems the state Labor parties are easily preferred on a 2PP basis.

    Dare I say state labor are having a positive effect on federal labor polling… ?

  37. MarkJacka‏ @themarkjacka · 2h2 hours ago

    @turnbullmalcolm may have danced with the Homeless at the Wayside Chapel, but under the new Charity Advocacy Laws if the Wayside Chapel spoke out against the LNP Homeless policies, then the Wayside Chapel would lose Charity status & tax exemptions.
    is a hypocrite. #auspol

    Apparently Malcolm bailed out as soon as the media left. What a coincidence.

  40. Firefighters and emergency service controllers support the need for the barriers, but say a lack of consultation with first-responders has resulted in serious oversights in its design.

    For instance, VicRoads’ Safe System Road Infrastructure Program director Bryan Sherritt​ said there must be a break in the barriers every 500 metres to one kilometre, to allow for emergency service access.

    But Mr Sherritt admitted that in some areas the breaks were less frequent.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/road-safety-barriers-leave-no-margin-for-error-country-fire-captains-warn-20171226-h0a434.html

  41. poroti @ #2203 Tuesday, December 26th, 2017 – 6:01 pm

    Ides of March

    The stench from the rot that set in under Carr will linger for many a long year.

    They shouldn’t just hang around waiting for the stench to pass.

    They should rather get the big broom out and proactively change the mindset of the people.

    It would take courage but the neo-libs at Sussex St should get out of the way and allow a genuine social democratic leader (if that is what he truly is) have his way.

  44. bemused @ #2442 Tuesday, December 26th, 2017 – 6:17 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #2435 Tuesday, December 26th, 2017 – 5:42 pm

    #Newspoll QLD Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 32 (-1) ALP 37 (+2) ON 15 (+1) GRN 9 (-1) #auspol— GhostWhoVotes (@GhostWhoVotes) December 26, 2017

    Seems Bill Shortens ‘Australia First’ ad worked.

    Oh dear, Rex, your beloved greens are falling way behind One Notion.
    Di Natali’s fault?

    No doubt DiNatale isn’t cutting through in Queensland.

  45. Rex Douglas

    Sussex St. Neo-liberals ? Heavens no. Purely Richo “whatever it takes” ………………..and the nice little earner on the side.

  47. poroti @ #2444 Tuesday, December 26th, 2017 – 6:25 pm

    Rex Douglas

    Sussex St. Neo-liberals ? Heavens no. Purely Richo “whatever it takes” ………………..and the nice little earner on the side.

    “Whatever it takes” within ethical bounds is fine by me.
    But some of those folks either lost, or never had, an ethical compass.

    “Whatever it takes” to me can mean going the extra mile, doing a few more hours on the phone bank, knocking on a few more doors etc.

  49. Confessions @ #2424 Tuesday, December 26th, 2017 – 1:56 pm

    I’ve just ordered some DVDs priority delivery via Amazon, and they reckon my order will arrive Dec 29.

    I will be surprised if this happens, but am keeping an open mind.

    I’ve used the priorty option a few times. I’d be surprised if your order doesn’t make it by 29 December, you may find it gets here a day earlier.

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